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3. DEMOGRAPHIC, ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC CHANGES
3.1 Introduction
A basic project premise is that coastal management initiatives will eventually lead to improved quality of life within the community as well as improved or stabilized environmental conditions. This is the long-term
goal expected from implementation of the marine sanctuary and management plan. The purpose of the baseline surveys and subsequent monitoring in the project and control sites is to determine to what extent project
activities are impacting on the quality of life and environmental conditions within the community. However, socio-economic changes are constantly occurring in any community. Macro-economic and large-scale
ecological and political factors can often have major influences on socio-economic conditions within any given community and may be greater than those due to project interventions. It is difficult to distinguish between
impacts from project initiatives and these larger scale changes unless there are time series information and comparisons between project and non-project locations. Even with such information we should not expect to
prove conclusively any causality. However, we may be able to infer with a reasonable degree of certainty what impacts have likely occurred and possibly quantify the magnitude of such changes. Another challenge for
monitoring strategies is that it may take years before a socio-economic impact resulting from project interventions becomes noticeable. Therefore, by monitoring socio-economic changes periodically, we can start
to learn how long it may take before such impacts can be measured using the indicators selected.
Indonesia and North Sulawesi faced several large-scale economic, political and environmental events since the project started in 1997. In the later part of 1997, the whole Asian region, including Indonesia, started
to fall into deep recession caused by the large-scale currency devaluation and the banking sector crisis. In Indonesia, the Rupiah fell from approximately 2,500 to the dollar in mid-1997 to over 10,000 to the dollar in the
early part of 1998. While many parts of the country were severely affected, especially the banking and manufacturing sectors, the devaluation resulted in large increases in prices paid Rupiah to farmers for many
export commodities. While inflation for basic commodities and imported goods skyrocketed, prices soared for many export crops produced seaweed, copra, cloves, and vanilla in rural communities of North Sulawesi
Pollnac et al. 1998. Rural communities highly dependent on export commodities did not feel the recession as much as other groups or areas of the country and the devaluation may have been beneficial for them. Over the
last several years the economy has settled down and the currency has increased in value and remained relatively stable averaging around 8,250 Rupiah to the dollar.
This period also saw one of the strongest El Nino events on record in 1997. Forest fires swept the country creating a regional haze. Many short-term crops failed in coastal areas of North Sulawesi, and in areas
such as the project site in Bentenan, many coconut and clove trees withered and died. The project sites had almost no rain for 13 months and traditional water sources in some villages were reduced to a trickle or ran dry.
In 1998, the marine environment was also hit by a strong La Nina event. This triggered elevated sea surface temperatures and widespread coral bleaching in the months of October through November 1998. In mid-2002
another El Nino event resulted in drought once again. Once again crops were failing and fires swept the tinder- dry hillsides in many of the project and control areas. The survey for the final assessment was conducted during
and at the end of this drought, probably impacting community members’ perceptions of well-being and progress.
This period of time also saw political turmoil in the country. Riots broke out in Jakarta and other locations around the country but North Sulawesi remained calm and peaceful. This turmoil led to the fall of
President Suharto, who had ruled the nation for over 30 years. In 1999, violence broke out in neighboring Maluku province and many refugees have poured into Manado and surrounding communities. On the positive
side, Indonesia became the third largest democracy in the world with the election of Abdurrahman Wahid in September 1999 and the peaceful transition of power to Sukarnoputri Megawati in 2000. Such events can have
major implications for local communities, and it compounds the challenge of determining project impacts on socio-economic aspects at our project sites. Therefore, these regional and national scale changes that have
occurred over the life of the project must be kept in mind when considering the site specific changes mentioned below.
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3.2 Project Sites
Kategori