Outlook Energi Indonesia 2012
5
• Cetak biru pemanfaatan mobil listrik sedang disusun pemerintah dan belum
dipertimbangkan dalam model. • Jumlah kendaraan milik pemerintah
dijadikan satu
dengan kendaraan
pribadi sehingga
kebutuhan BBM
tidak dibedakan antara BBM subsidi dan non subsidi.
Blueprints on utilization of electric cars
are being
developed by
government and
has not
been considered in the model.
The number of government owned vehicles is clasified into one with
private vehicle so that the demand of oil fuel is not differentiated between
subsidized and non-subsidized fuel.
1.3.2 Model Penyediaan Energi Energy Supply Model
Model MARKAL memerlukan asumsi sebagai
acuan dalam
melakukan optimisasi penyediaan energi. Asumsi
penting yang dimasukkan ke dalam model adalah:
Pasokan dan kebutuhan gas bumi
mengikuti Buku
Neraca Gas
Indonesia 2011-2025 Kementerian ESDM, sedangkan untuk 2026-2030
mengikuti trend gas delivery. Ekspor gas
bumi juga
mengikuti Buku
Neraca Gas
Indonesia dan
mempertimbangkan adanya impor gas sampai tahun 2030.
Cadangan
batubara dan
minyak bumi
mengikuti data
dari Kementerian ESDM dengan status
Januari 2010. Cadangan minyak yang dipertimbangkan adalah cadangan
terbukti. Sedangkan
cadangan batubara
yang dipertimbangkan
adalah cadangan tertambang dan cadangan terukur.
Harga minyak mentah berdasarkan
APBNP tahun 2010 sebesar 80 barel untuk harga saat ini current
price: dan naik secara linier menjadi 200 barel pada tahun 2030.
MARKAL model requires assumptions as reference in further optimization of
energy supply. Important assumptions incorporated into the model are:
The demand and supply of natural gas follow the book of Indonesia Gas
Balance 2011-2025
Ministry of
Energy and Mineral Resources, while for 2026-2030 they follow the trend of
gas delivery. Exports of natural gas also follow the book of Indonesia Gas
balance and consider the import of gas up to 2030.
Petroleum and coal reserves follow the data from the Ministry of Energy and
Mineral Resources with status of January
2010. Oil
reserves are
considered proven reserves. While coal reserves are considered mineable
reserves and measured reserves.
Crude oil prices based on revised budget in 2010 amounted to 80
barrel is considered to be the current price and rising linearly to 200
barrel in 2030.
Outlook Energi Indonesia 2012
6
Pasokan CBM mengikuti data dari
Kementerian ESDM untuk tahun 2010–2036.
Teknologi coal to liquid CTL yang
dipertimbangkan: proses
indirect coal liquefaction dengan kapasitas
produksi 50 ribu barelhari.
Penambahan kilang-kilang minyak baru
mengikuti rencana
PT Pertamina
yaitu pembangunan
Kilang New Balongan dan Kilang Tuban,
masing-masing dengan
kapasitas 200 ribu barelhari.
Pembangkit listrik
super-critical boiler dimanfaatkan mulai tahun
2014.
LNG receiving
terminal dipertimbangkan.
Subsidi
energi tidak
dipertimbangkan dalam model ini.
Biaya produksi pembangkit listrik hanya
didasarkan pada
keekonomiannya.
Konservasi energi di sisi kebutuhan maupun di sisi penyediaan sudah
dipertimbangkan melalui
pemanfaatan teknologi yang efisien.
Supply CBM follow data from the Ministry of Energy and Mineral
Resources for the years 2010-2036.
Technology coal to liquid CTL are considered: indirect coal liquefaction
process with a production capacity of 50 thousand barrels day.
Addition of new oil refineries follows PT Pertamina plans to New Balongan
Refinery and Tuban Refinery, each with a capacity of 200 thousand
barrelsday.
The power plant with super-critical boiler to be utilized starting 2014.
LNG receiving terminal is considered to be operated in the near future.
Energy subsidies are not considered in this model.
The cost of power production based solely on its economics.
Conservation of energy on demand and supply side has been considered
through the
use of
efficient technologies.
1.4 Pemutakhiran Data Data Update
