A Tail Bound for Adapted Sequences

The Matrix Freedman Inequality 267 To prove that the process is a supermartingale, we follow a short chain of inequalities. E k−1 S k = E k−1 tr exp θ Y k−1 − gθ · W k + θ X k ≤ tr exp € θ Y k−1 − gθ · W k + log E k−1 e θ X k Š ≤ tr exp θ Y k−1 − gθ · W k + gθ · V k = tr exp θ Y k−1 − gθ · W k−1 = S k−1 . In the second line, we invoke Corollary 1.5, conditional on F k−1 . This step is legal because Y k−1 and W k are both measurable with respect to F k−1 . The next inequality relies on the assump- tion 2.1 and the fact that the trace exponential is monotone with respect to the semidefinite order [ Pet94 , §2.2]. The last equality is true because {W k } is the sequence of partial sums of {V k }. Finally, we present a simple inequality for the function G θ that holds when we have control on the eigenvalues of its arguments. Lemma 2.2. Suppose that λ max Y ≥ t and that λ max W ≤ w. For each θ 0, G θ Y , W ≥ e θ t−gθ ·w . Proof. Recall that gθ ≥ 0. The bound results from a straightforward calculation: G θ Y , W = tr e θ Y −gθ ·W ≥ tr e θ Y −gθ ·wI ≥ λ max € e θ Y −gθ ·wI Š = e θ λ max Y −gθ ·w ≥ e θ t−gθ ·w . The first inequality depends on the semidefinite relation W ´ wI and the monotonicity of the trace exponential with respect to the semidefinite order [ Pet94 , §2.2]. The second inequality relies on the fact that the trace of a psd matrix is at least as large as its maximum eigenvalue. The third identity follows from the spectral mapping theorem and elementary properties of the maximum eigenvalue map.

2.3 A Tail Bound for Adapted Sequences

Our key theorem for adapted sequences provides a bound on the probability that the partial sum of a matrix-valued random process is large. In the next section, we apply this result to establish a stronger version of Theorem 1.2. This result also allows us to develop other types of probabil- ity inequalities for adapted sequences of random matrices; see the technical report [ Tro11 ] for additional details. Theorem 2.3 Master Tail Bound for Adapted Sequences. Consider an adapted sequence {X k } and a predictable sequence {V k } of self-adjoint matrices with dimension d. Assume these sequences satisfy the relations log E k−1 e θ X k ´ gθ · V k almost surely for each θ 0, 2.3 where the function g : 0, ∞ → [0, ∞]. In particular, the hypothesis 2.3 holds when E k−1 e θ X k ´ e gθ ·V k almost surely for each θ 0. 2.4 268 Electronic Communications in Probability Define the partial sum processes Y k := X k j=1 X j and W k := X k j=1 V j . Then, for all t, w ∈ R, P ∃k ≥ 0 : λ max Y k ≥ t and λ max W k ≤ w ≤ d · inf θ 0 e −θ t+gθ ·w . Proof. To begin, we note that the cgf hypothesis 2.3 holds in the presence of 2.4 because the logarithm is an operator monotone function [ Bha97 , Ch. V]. The overall proof strategy is the same as the stopping-time technique used by Freedman [ Fre75 ]. Fix a positive parameter θ , which we will optimize later. Following the discussion in §2.2, we introduce the random process S k := G θ Y k , W k . Lemma 2.1 states that {S k } is a positive super- martingale with initial value d. These simple properties of the auxiliary random process distill all the essential information from the hypotheses of the theorem. Define a stopping time κ by finding the first time instant k when the maximum eigenvalue of the partial sum process reaches the level t even though the sum of cgf bounds has maximum eigenvalue no larger than w. κ := inf{k ≥ 0 : λ max Y k ≥ t and λ max W k ≤ w}. When the infimum is empty, the stopping time κ = ∞. Consider a system of exceptional events: E k := {λ max Y k ≥ t and λ max W k ≤ w} for k = 0, 1, 2, . . . . Construct the event E := S ∞ k=0 E k that one or more of these exceptional situations takes place. The intuition behind this definition is that the partial sum Y k is typically not large unless the process {X k } has varied substantially, a situation that the bound on W k does not allow. As a result, the event E is rather unlikely. We are prepared to estimate the probability of the exceptional event. First, note that κ ∞ on the event E. Therefore, Lemma 2.2 provides a conditional lower bound for the process {S k } at the stopping time κ: S κ = G θ Y κ , W κ ≥ e θ t−gθ ·w on the event E. The stopped process {S k∧κ } is also a positive supermartingale with initial value d, so d ≥ lim inf k→∞ E [S k∧κ ] ≥ lim inf k→∞ E [S k∧κ 1 E ] ≥ E[lim inf k→∞ S k∧κ 1 E ] = E[S κ 1 E ]. The indicator function decreases the expectation because the stopped process is positive. Fatou’s lemma justifies the third inequality, and we have identified the limit using the fact that κ ∞ on the event E. It follows that d ≥ E[S κ 1 E ] ≥ P E · inf E S κ ≥ P E · e θ t−gθ ·w . Rearrange the relation to obtain P E ≤ d · e −θ t+gθ ·w . Minimize the right-hand side with respect to θ to complete the main part of the argument. The Matrix Freedman Inequality 269 3 Proof of Freedman’s Inequality In this section, we use the general martingale deviation bound, Theorem 2.3, to prove a stronger version of Theorem 1.2. Theorem 3.1. Consider an adapted sequence {X k } of self-adjoint matrices with dimension d that satisfy the relations E k−1 X k = 0 and λ max X k ≤ R almost surely for k = 1, 2, 3, . . . . Define the partial sums Y k := X k j=1 X j and W k := X k j=1 E j−1 X 2 j for k = 0, 1, 2, . . . . Then, for all t ≥ 0 and σ 2 0, P ¦ ∃k ≥ 0 : λ max Y k ≥ t and W k ≤ σ 2 © ≤ d · exp ¨ − σ 2 R 2 · h Rt σ 2 « . The function hu := 1 + u log1 + u − u for u ≥ 0. Theorem 1.2 follows easily from this result. Proof of Theorem 1.2 from Theorem 3.1. To derive Theorem 1.2, we note that the difference se- quence {X k } of a matrix martingale {Y k } satisfies the conditions of Theorem 3.1 and that the martingale can be expressed in terms of the partial sums of the difference sequence. Finally, we apply the numerical inequality hu ≥ u 2 2 1 + u3 for u ≥ 0, which we obtain by comparing derivatives. 3.1 Demonstration of Theorem 3.1

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