Security and returnees Migration

Population structure and change 23 Table 3.14 Place of origindestination of security seekers Place of origin Destination In-migrants Out-migrants Thousands Percentages Thousands Percentages Same province, urban 3.0 3 3.0 27 Same province, rural 7.9 9 4.2 38 Other province, urban 9.0 10 0.2 2 Other province, rural 7.1 8 - - Pakistan 48.7 56 - - Iran 11.4 13 2.6 24 Arabian Peninsula - - 0.8 8 Other country - - 0.2 2 Total 87.2 100 11.0 100 Compared to all in-migrants, returning former security seekers are slightly higher educated. On the other hand, among security seeking out-migrants those with no education are over-represented 79 percent against 67 percent among all out-migrants, as are those with tertiary education 4 against 2 percent.

3.6 Conclusions

Afghanistan faces the challenges of a very young and rapidly growing population. Among other things, these challenges emerge in high and increasing demand for education, health services and basic infrastructure, as well as in growing numbers of youth entering the labour market. The present 15-19 years age group of 2.7 million, who should receive secondary education or look for jobs, will in five years time be replaced by the next age cohort, who presently number 3.7 million – one million more. Sectoral development planning and efforts to achieve the MDGs will have to take these perspectives into account. These prospects also emphasize the need of a comprehensive population policy addressing the high levels of fertility and child mortality. For well-founded population policy and population projections required for development planning, a demographic and health survey and a full population census are urgently needed. The large-scale return of refugees in recent years has augmented the pressure on Afghanistan’s infrastructure, labour market and resources. It is telling that the influx of refugees was by far the most frequently experienced shock for resident households. Further investigation into the effects of this influx on the resident population and the present conditions of returned refugees and IDPs themselves is warranted. Internal and international migration seem to be strategies applied by many to cope with the challenges facing Afghan households. Thirteen percent of households have a member who migrated in recent years, mostly for employment reasons. The present analyses do not show any sign of brain drain in the international migration patterns. Given the apparent high mobility in the Afghan population, the population census should include a well-designed module to capture international and internal migration patterns, especially also in view of population projections. Special attention should also be given to full coverage of the population in census and survey activities. The common under-enumeration of very young children in developing countries is magnified in surveys among Afghan populations. This is a feature that needs to be investigated in more detail, preferably also using qualitative research. In addition, it is likely that many women are omitted from the statistics, especially those in the adolescent and older age ranges. Each of these groups can be considered in vulnerable conditions and, for instance, constitute specific target groups for health services. Other vulnerable groups can be defined in terms of household structure. Some 70 thousand households are female- headed and some 380 thousand are headed by either elderly of 65 and over, or by heads under age 20. Also girls engaged in early marriage can be considered in a vulnerable condition, since they often bear responsibilities beyond their physical and emotional capacity. Teenage pregnancy and related maternal health risks, and inequity due to large spousal age differences are common challenges faced by these adolescent girls. The prevailing Afghan marriage pattern also leads to large numbers of widows at relatively young ages. Altogether, more than half a million women are widowed. Population structure and change 24 On the positive side, the NRVA also exposes encouraging social change. It finds a clear tendency towards smaller age differences between spouses and a noticeable decline of early marriages, which are likely contributions to women’s empowerment within marriage and the family. The analysis also provides indications of decreasing fertility and child mortality. The latter reflects the improvement of health services in recent years see also Chapter 8. Strengthening these developments should be prioritized in policies and programmes on population, health and women. Population structure and change 25 4 Labour force characteristics SUMMARY. Afghanistan’s labour market has the typical characteristics of a less developed economy: it is dominated by the agricultural sector and performs poorly in providing productive employment and decent work. More than 90 percent of jobs can be classiied as vulnerable employment that does not secure stable and suficient income. The relatively high labour force participation rate of 67 percent might indicate that many people are compelled to ind work for bare household survival. In the case of Afghanistan, the fairly high employment-to-population ratio 62 percent and the modest unemployment rate 7 percent should also be interpreted in the sense that people simply cannot afford to be unemployed. This becomes even more evident in view of the barriers for women to participate in the labour force, with the effect that the overall igures disguise an extremely high male employment-to-population ratio and labour force participation rate of 80 and 86 percent, respectively. Closer examination of the hours worked per week and the shares of the employed and unemployed that are unable to meet the most basic needs, indicates that the dichotomy of employment-unemployment as applied in developed economies is of very limited use in Afghanistan, and should be supplemented by measures of underemployment. The gender disparity of the labour market is also visible in the distribution of the status in employment – showing that 95 percent of working women are in vulnerable employment against 67 percent for men – and in average working hours 30 hours per week for women and 39 for men. Thus, Afghan women face multiple disadvantages on the labour market: fewer work, for less hours and in less secure jobs. For all labour market indicators, the gender gap is especially large in the urban areas. Widespread poverty and inadequate educational opportunities drive many households to send their children looking for work. In total 1.9 million Afghan children aged 6-17 21 percent are employed. According to the formal deinition of child labour, of these children at least 1.2 million 13 percent are performing child labour, thereby jeopardising their health or development. Labour migration is another frequent coping mechanism to escape from poverty. The importance of this strategy is indicated by the fact that 7 percent of all households have a labour in-migrant, 6 percent saw a member leave for work elsewhere and 14 percent had seasonal labour migrants.

4.1 Introduction

The involvement in the production of goods and services is the main livelihood strategy for the vast majority of Afghan households. In a society where pensions and social security benefits are available to only very few and where employment opportunities are scarce, households resort to a variety of employment strategies to escape from poverty. Among others, these include subsistence activities, involvement in low-paid and irregular jobs, child labour and labour migration. One of the major additions to the NRVA 20078 was a number of modules on labour force characteristics. These allow insight into employment strategies and the overall labour market structure of Afghanistan. Section 4.2 describes general labour force characteristics, including labour force participation, employment and unemployment, and Section 4.3 briefly addresses the job characteristics of the employed population. Subsequently, Section 4.4 deals with children engaged in jobs, and more specifically child labour, whereas the final Section 4.5 provides an analysis of labour migration.

4.2 Labour force, employment and unemployment

Due to the very large share of children, less than half of the Afghan population is in the official working age of 16 years and over. Within this working-age population of over 12 million people, one-third four million is inactive and two-thirds Decent work The concept of decent work is central in the work of the International Labour Organization ILO. Decent work sums up the aspirations of people in their working lives – their aspirations for opportunity and income; rights, voice and recognition; family stability and personal development; and fairness and gender equality. It is captured in four strategic objectives: fundamental principles and rights at work and international labour standards; employment and income opportunities; social protection and social security; and social dialogue and tripartism.