Population structure and change
10
3.2 Population structure and distribution
3.2.1 General population characteristics
The population size of Afghanistan estimated on the basis of the NRVA sampling procedure is close to 25 million people.
The most striking feature of the Afghan population is its very young age structure see Figure 3.1 and Table 3.1. Some 49
percent 12 million is under 15 years of age, whereas elderly of 65 and over represent less than three percent of the total
population. The proportion under 15 is among the very highest in the world and significantly higher than that of neighboring
countries, ranging from 26 percent in Iran to around 39 percent in Pakistan and Tajikistan UN Population Division 2008.
The young age composition contributes to a very high dependency ratio: for every 100 persons in the working age
15-59, there are 113 persons in the less productive ages of under-fifteen and 60 and over, who are dependent for income
and subsistence. This figure implies a large burden for the prime working-age population and the economy at large. Large
social investments in terms of education and health care are concentrated in the youngest age categories.
The overall sex distribution in the Afghan population is tilted toward males as indicated by the sex ratio – the number of males per 100 females in the population. The NRVA 20078 found a relatively high overall sex ratio of 105 males per 100
females, corresponding to 49 percent females and 51 percent males. The change in the sex distribution from the NRVA 2005 – respectively 54 percent males and 46 percent females, implying a sex ratio of 118 – is most probably due to much
better coverage of the female population in the 20078 round.
Figure 3.1 Population, by age and sex in percentages
Generally, the sex ratio across age groups follows a pattern in which boys outnumber girls at birth
with around 105 to 100, by and large maintain this male pre-dominance in early childhood, to
gradually converge with the number of women at later ages. Around age 50 the male surplus
usually turns into a shortfall, which increases at older ages, resulting in an overall sex ratio
generally close to 100. This pattern results from the usually small excess of boys at birth and
the commonly higher mortality of males over females. Genuine deviations from this pattern
can be caused by variations in the sex ratio at birth and by sex-specific mortality and migration.
However, sex-specific age-misreporting and under-counting or over-counting can also lead
to unexpected sex ratios.
Quality of age reporting
In countries like Afghanistan, many people are ignorant about their exact age or date of birth. This leads to high
incidences of age misreporting, for instance by age heaping and age shifting. Consequently, reported ages in surveys
and censuses should be treated with caution. Different procedures to assess the quality of the NRVA data indicate
that age reporting is highly inaccurate
a
, but significantly better than in 2005.
Another common characteristic of many developing countries is the omission of very young children in the enumeration.
The relatively small 0-4 age group in Figure 3.1 points in this direction. A breakdown by single years of age suggests an
even more pronounced undercount of infants and one-year old children. It is not unlikely that around one million young
children are omitted from the present statistics.
a
Myers’ blended index is 24.4, Whipple’s index is 255, and the UN age-sex accuracy index is 52.
Male Female
Table 3.1 Population, by sex, and by age; also stating sex ratio, by age
Age Thousands
Percentages Sex
Male Female
Total Male
Female Total
Ratio 0-9
4,249 4,132
8,381 33
34 34
103 10-19
3,447 3,052
6,499 27
25 26
113 20-29
1,708 1,786
3,494 13
15 14
96 30-39
1,214 1,304
2,518 9
11 10
93 40-49
879 881
1,760 7
7 7
100 50-59
595 569
1,164 5
5 5
105 60-69
396 295
691 3
2 3
134 70-79
210 111
322 2
1 1
189 80+
89 43
132 1
1 209
Total 12,787
12,173 24,960
100 100
100 105
As is shown in Table 3.1, the age-specific sex ratios markedly deviate from the described common pattern. Especially noticeable are the high to extremely high sex ratios in the age ranges 10-19 and over-50, which suggest large male surpluses
in these age brackets. Although in-depth investigation is warranted in this matter, it is likely that a combination of female under-enumeration – related to cultural norms of female seclusion – and excess female mortality – especially related to
maternal mortality – are contributing factors. Another noticeable feature is that in the mid-age range of 20 to 39 women are reported as in the majority, which may be caused by lower survey coverage and real absence of mobile men in the working
age population see Section 3.5.1. The 2005 NRVA showed a similar pattern, but with consistently higher sex ratio levels.
3.2.2 Geographic distribution
The Afghan population is overwhelmingly rural: 74 percent around 18.5 million people lives in rural areas and only 20 percent 5.0 million in urban areas, whereas six percent 1.5 million is classified as nomadic Kuchi see Table 3.2.
Table 3.2: Population, by residence, sex, and by age; also stating total sex ratio
Age Residence, sex
Urban Rural
Kuchi National
Male Female
Total Male
Female Total
Male Female
Total Male
Female Total
In thousands
0-14 1,094
1,075 2,169
4,748 4,458
9,206 383
363 745
6,225 5,896
12,120 15-24
581 551
1,133 1,705
1,567 3,272
137 106
243 2,423
2,225 4,647
25-39 377
398 775
1,473 1,629
3,102 119
127 246
1,970 2,154
4,123 40-64
354 374
728 1,279
1,192 2,471
96 85
181 1,729
1,651 3,380
65+ 102
57 159
313 175
488 26
17 43
441 248
689
Total 2,510
2,454 4,964
9,517 9,021
18,538 760
698 1,458
12,787 12,173
24,960 In percentages
0-14 44
44 44
50 49
50 50
52 51
49 48
49 15-24
23 22
23 18
17 17
18 15
17 19
18 19
25-39 15
16 16
15 18
18 16
18 17
15 18
17 40-64
14 15
15 13
13 13
13 12
12 14
14 17
65+ 4
2 3
3 2
3 3
2 3
3 2
3
Total 100
100 100
100 100
100 100
100 100
100 100
100 Total Sex Ratio
102 105
109 105
Population structure and change
11
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