9
Methodological backgrounds of NRVA 20078
3 Population structure and change
SUMMARY. The structure and size of a population, as well as their development over time are principal components
in development planning. Afghanistan is challenged by a rapid population growth, fuelled by very high fertility and signiicant in-migration in recent years. The Total Fertility Rate of 6.3 children per woman
is relected by an average household size of 7.3 persons and by an exceptionally high share of the population under age 15 49 percent. The corresponding dependency ratio of 133 only partly indicates
the burden on the country’s economy and society. Additional costs at the individual and household levels are paid in terms of high maternal and infant mortality, and low female participation in education and
income generating. The NRVA 20078 reveals an estimated infant mortality rate of 111 and an under- ive mortality rate of 161 per thousand live births. Despite the very high levels of these demographic
indicators, the NRVA also inds indications of decreasing child mortality and – more modestly – fertility. In addition to natural increase, Afghanistan’s population has substantially grown due to returning refugees,
predominantly from Pakistan and Iran. It is likely that additional net immigration is also a factor of population growth, with Iran being the leading country of origin and destination of migrants. By far the
most important reason for international migration was employment. This indicates the relatively weak labour market situation in Afghanistan, as well as the economic importance of labour migration for the
country’s economy. In terms of numbers, internal migration is even larger than international migration. Marriage is almost universal in Afghanistan and is characterized by early marriage for women, with a mean
age at irst marriage of 17.9. The combination of a relatively large age difference between spouses – on average husbands being nearly 7 years older than their wives – and the incidence of polygamy – 6 percent
– contributes to the large number of more than half a million widows in the country. NRVA indings also include a recent noticeable decline of early marriages and a steady drop in the spousal age difference. More
worrisome is the deicit in the statistics of very young children and females at adolescent and older ages. It is likely that this is caused by under-enumeration of these vulnerable groups.
3.1 Introduction
In the absence of a population census, a vital registration system or targeted nation-wide household surveys, it is difficult to assess the exact contribution of the principal factors of population development in Afghanistan. However, there can be
no doubt that high fertility and mortality, and large-scale international migration – including consecutive massive waves of refugees and, more recently, returnees – made a significant impact on the overall size and structure of the population.
In addition, geographic differentiation in fertility and mortality, as well as internal migration and movements of internally displaced persons IDPs have had major effects on the internal distribution of the population.
The NRVA is able to fill several gaps in the demographic picture of Afghanistan. Besides basic information on age and sex, the NRVA 20078 included modules that allow the assessment of fertility and infant and under-five mortality.
In addition, structured information on migration was collected. A full picture, and the possibility to produce population growth rates and population projections, are not feasible as of yet, because of the absence of adult mortality indicators,
life expectancy estimates and more adequate migration information.
This chapter first addresses the present population structure by age and sex, and its geographic distribution Section 3.2. Subsequently, Section 3.3 describes household structures and marriage patterns. Next sections elaborate the underlying
population processes of fertility and mortality Section 3.4, and migration 3.5.
Population structure and change
10
3.2 Population structure and distribution
3.2.1 General population characteristics
The population size of Afghanistan estimated on the basis of the NRVA sampling procedure is close to 25 million people.
The most striking feature of the Afghan population is its very young age structure see Figure 3.1 and Table 3.1. Some 49
percent 12 million is under 15 years of age, whereas elderly of 65 and over represent less than three percent of the total
population. The proportion under 15 is among the very highest in the world and significantly higher than that of neighboring
countries, ranging from 26 percent in Iran to around 39 percent in Pakistan and Tajikistan UN Population Division 2008.
The young age composition contributes to a very high dependency ratio: for every 100 persons in the working age
15-59, there are 113 persons in the less productive ages of under-fifteen and 60 and over, who are dependent for income
and subsistence. This figure implies a large burden for the prime working-age population and the economy at large. Large
social investments in terms of education and health care are concentrated in the youngest age categories.
The overall sex distribution in the Afghan population is tilted toward males as indicated by the sex ratio – the number of males per 100 females in the population. The NRVA 20078 found a relatively high overall sex ratio of 105 males per 100
females, corresponding to 49 percent females and 51 percent males. The change in the sex distribution from the NRVA 2005 – respectively 54 percent males and 46 percent females, implying a sex ratio of 118 – is most probably due to much
better coverage of the female population in the 20078 round.
Figure 3.1 Population, by age and sex in percentages
Generally, the sex ratio across age groups follows a pattern in which boys outnumber girls at birth
with around 105 to 100, by and large maintain this male pre-dominance in early childhood, to
gradually converge with the number of women at later ages. Around age 50 the male surplus
usually turns into a shortfall, which increases at older ages, resulting in an overall sex ratio
generally close to 100. This pattern results from the usually small excess of boys at birth and
the commonly higher mortality of males over females. Genuine deviations from this pattern
can be caused by variations in the sex ratio at birth and by sex-specific mortality and migration.
However, sex-specific age-misreporting and under-counting or over-counting can also lead
to unexpected sex ratios.
Quality of age reporting
In countries like Afghanistan, many people are ignorant about their exact age or date of birth. This leads to high
incidences of age misreporting, for instance by age heaping and age shifting. Consequently, reported ages in surveys
and censuses should be treated with caution. Different procedures to assess the quality of the NRVA data indicate
that age reporting is highly inaccurate
a
, but significantly better than in 2005.
Another common characteristic of many developing countries is the omission of very young children in the enumeration.
The relatively small 0-4 age group in Figure 3.1 points in this direction. A breakdown by single years of age suggests an
even more pronounced undercount of infants and one-year old children. It is not unlikely that around one million young
children are omitted from the present statistics.
a
Myers’ blended index is 24.4, Whipple’s index is 255, and the UN age-sex accuracy index is 52.
Male Female
