Household shocks and community preferences
111
Figure 11.1 Incidence of household shocks in the past 12 months, due to inlux of refugees and IDPs, by province in percentages
Next to the returnee issue, shocks related to natural disasters were faced most frequently affecting 39 percent of households. With regard to water-related shocks, problems were mainly encountered in Northern Afghanistan
Figure 11.2. Another remarkable observation, is that almost half of the households experienced three or more shocks.
The newly introduced category of shocks related to influx of refugees also contributed to the overall increase of households experiencing shocks. In 2005, 45 percent of households faced any shock, and in 20078 this was 71 percent.
However, for most other types of generic household shocks comparison with NRVA 2005 figures shows a decline. Even though it is likely that this picture is distorted by the introduction of the additional problem of refugee influx, it suggests
an improvement in many fields except security. It is remarkable that for the largest part lower occurrence of shocks can be attributed to declines in the urban areas. One interpretation could be that urban life in Afghanistan has improved and
has become more stabilized. On the other hand, the various idiosyncratic shocks occurred significantly more frequently: in 20078, 28 percent endured these shocks, compared to 11 percent in 2005. It is difficult to explain this large increase
since by their nature, idiosyncratic events have more random causation.
In order to address the difficulties faced, Afghan households applied a variety of coping strategies see Table 11.2. Of these, financial cutbacks in household expenditure were the ones most frequently applied, but help obtained in the
community, food reduction, obtaining credit, and sale of means of production were also major strategies to address the problems. Although several of these strategies are problematic, the latter strategy is particularly worrisome, as it reduces
the chances of recovery.
Household shocks and community preferences
112
Figure 11.2 Incidence of household shocks in the past 12 months, due to water-related problems, by province in percentages
Table 11.2 Prevalence of coping strategies applied, by, residence in percentages
Residence Coping strategy
An y
st ra
te g
y F
o o
d re
d u
ct io
n R
e d
u ce
d e
xp e
n d
it u
re s
L o
a n
s, re
d it
s,
mo rt
g a
g in
g Sa
le o
f p
ro d
u ct
io n
g o
o d
s
Al te
rn a
ti ve
w o
rk
st ra
te g
ie s
W o
rki n
g i
n a
id
p ro
g ra
mme s
H e
lp f
ro m
co m-
mu n
it y
O th
e r
st ra
te g
ie s
N o
st ra
te g
y
Urban 44
17 27
20 7
3 1
28 3
1 Rural
76 39
45 31
29 13
9 38
4 6
Kuchi 84
33 46
41 22
12 30
33 1
3 National
70 34
41 30
24 11
9 35
4 5
Household shocks and community preferences
113
Some 20 percent of coping strategies referred to specially designed programmes to assist vulnerable populations. Close to 280 thousand households had a member participating in cash-for work or other income-generating programmes. As
a result, around 45 percent of the households participating in these programmes bought more food, and more or less equal shares – ranging from 13 to 17 percent – used the money to pay for medical expenses, meet financial obligations
or invested in income generating.
As for the reasons why households did not participate in cash-for-work programmes, 72 percent of households reported that there was no such programme in their area, and 10 percent did not hear about this. Apparently, there could still be
a very large demand for this type of assistance programmes.
A second type of support strategy is food-for-work or food aid programmes, in which some 224 thousand households participated. The most important benefit 35 percent again was the increase of the quantity of food consumed, followed
by the increase of the quality of food 24 percent, reduction of food expenditures, and improved education or literacy. Nine percent used the food received to sell this for cash. Altogether over 450 thousand or one in seven households
participated in any of these types of programmes, reflecting precarious situations for many.
11.3 Community preferences
The male and female Shura questionnaires in the NRVA survey contained identical modules on priorities for government support to development. Table 11.3 summarizes the main findings. A rather consistent picture emerges across the urban,
rural and Kuchi communities about the top priority of water supply. Safe drinking water is provided to only 27 percent of the population see Section 9.3.1, but even in urban areas where access to 58 percent of the population is realized,
improvement is clearly the first priority, followed by construction or repair of roads. In the rural area the rehabilitation of irrigation systems is important. At the women’s side, high priority is also assigned to the provision of health facilities,
even more so than by the male Shura.
Table 11.3 Priorities for support to development of a male Shuras and b female Shuras, by residence percentage mentioned as irst priority between brackets
Residence Priority
a. Male Shura Priority
b. Female Shura Urban
1 Improved drinking water quantity 21
1 Improved drinking water quantity 17
2 Repairing of local roads 17
2 Repairing of local roads 13
3 New or improved local education facilities for women and men 12
3 New or improved local health facilities for women and men 11
4 Improved drinking water quality 9
4 Other 10
5 Other 8
5 Improved drinking water quality 7
Rural
1 Rehabilitation of irrigation system 16
1 Improved drinking water quantity 13
2 Improved drinking water quantity 13
2 New or improved local health facilities for women and men 13
3 New or improved local health facilities for women and men 10
3 Rehabilitation of irrigation system 8
4 Electricity provision 9
4 New or improved local health facilities, women 7
5 Other 9
5 Repairing of local roads 7
Kuchi
1 Improved drinking water quantity 18
1 Improved drinking water quantity 25
2 Improved drinking water quality 14
2 Improved drinking water quality 15
3 New or improved housing in community 9
3 New or improved local health facilities for women and men 13
4 Improved veterinary services 7
4 New or improved local health facilities, women 8
5 New or improved local education facilities for women and men 7
5 Other 8
National
1 Rehabilitation of irrigation system 14
1 Improved drinking water quantity 14
2 Improved drinking water quantity 14
2 New or improved local health facilities for women and men 13
3 New or improved local health facilities for women and men 9
3 Repairing of local roads 7
4 Other 9
4 Rehabilitation of irrigation system 7
5 Repairing of local roads 9
5 New or improved local health facilities, women 7
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114
11.4 Conclusions
The climatic and natural circumstances of Afghanistan and its history of social and political conflict frequently create adverse conditions and events that are beyond the control of households. It is the role of the government to mitigate
these shocks and preferably prevent their occurrence by effective policies and programmes. It comes as a surprise that the most frequently mentioned household shock was related to the influx of refugees and IDPs; no less than 60 percent
of all households mentioned this in the survey. It is well possible that the associated problems relate to land and house disputes. In that case, legal settlements including registration of ownership may be required to find solutions. However,
more detailed analysis, as well as additional research – possibly qualitative research – is required to investigate into the exact nature of this problem and to find out who and where are the main victims.
Other shocks that households frequently endured were natural disasters, agricultural problems, poor water supply and insecurity. The first of these two can only partly be addressed by policy measures apart from mitigation, but for the
latter, there is ample scope for effective interventions. For all types of generic household shocks – except for those related to security – comparison with NRVA 2005 figures show an improvement, with the reservation that this picture may
be positively biased by the introduction of the newly identified problem of refugee influx. Most of the improvements can be attributed to urban areas, which could be interpreted as an indication of stabilizing and improving conditions there.
Among the strategies to cope with these challenges, financial cutbacks in household expenditure were the ones most frequently applied. Additionally, households regularly depend on help from the community, food reduction, obtaining
credit, and sale of production goods. Implementation of various income-generating and food programmes assisted one of every seven households in the country. The benefits of these programmes especially related to food security, health
and productive investments. As such, they seem to be instrumental in the improvement of life conditions of many.
Male and female Shuras provided information about the priorities for development in their communities. Water supply received a top ranking, and improvement of the health system – especially for women – and rehabilitation of the irrigation
system were also consistently mentioned. For urban areas, road repair received high priority. It can be expected that the success rate of development programmes will be higher if interventions match community preferences.
12 Recommendations
The NRVA 20078 is the most comprehensive source of statistical information about Afghanistan to date. It has been the product of close collaboration between the Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development and the Central Statistics
Organisation, with financial support of the European Commission and valuable input from various line ministries and international agencies. The present NRVA also built on the experiences of the two previous rounds of NRVA. Thereby,
NRVA has not only filled a large gap in key indicators required for development planning, it also contributed to important capacity building in fieldwork operations, sampling, data processing, conceptualisation of development issues, and
statistical and policy analysis.
The main conclusions contained in this report are provided in the summaries at the start of each chapter and in the executive summary at the beginning of this report. This chapter will focus on main recommendations that can be drawn
from the history of the NRVA.
12.1 Policy recommendations
As far as policy recommendations are concerned, it is the primary responsibility of the ministries to draw conclusions from the findings in this report, and preferably from additional analysis of the NRVA data. Although it is in no way the
explicit task of the present report, in several sections statistical finding have been translated into policy clues. Therefore, at this place it is opportune to transcend the topical character of the various chapters and reflect some of the main
considerations, without the aim of being anywhere close to comprehensive.
The NRVA analysis shows widespread and often severe poverty, and it is obvious that those who cannot meet their basic needs are a primary target group for poverty alleviation. However, the poverty pattern also shows that of those who are not immediately
threatened in their survival, many are very close to falling into absolute poverty and that only very few live in affluence. This means that almost any development programme in Afghanistan will benefit people who face severe challenges.
A finding with major policy implications is also that consistently and in every development area, women and Kuchis are disproportionally disadvantaged. Almost invariantly also conditions in urban areas are better than in rural areas,
even though urban conditions are very poor in any international standard. Such and similar observations were made in previous studies, but never in a way as comprehensive and nationally representative as in the present NRVA. The
NRVA updates and substantiates most of these claims and makes corrections to few others. More specific target groups were identified in this report, including unemployed youth and educated women, girls in early marriage and generally
adolescent girls, widows, and female-headed households, among others.
An issue that impacts on almost every development area – employment, education, health, food security, poverty, the position of women, environmental degradation, to name just a few – is Afghanistan’s rapid population growth. Although an
exact estimate of population growth is not possible on the basis of NRVA data, the population structure and the estimated total fertility rate sufficiently indicate that population growth is very high. As a consequence, increasingly larger birth
cohorts add every year to the pressure on, for instance the education system and the labour market, which are already over-burdened and incapable to absorb the present number of school-age children and labour force, respectively. Having
many children is one of the factors explaining household poverty and food insecurity, and the present very high fertility unquestionably means that women and infants alike pay a high price in terms of health impairment and death. It also
implies a high burden for Afghanistan’s fragile health system and an additional barrier for Afghan women to be educated, to be gainfully employed and to seize other opportunities for personal development. A comprehensive population policy
aiming at reducing unsustainable fertility – necessarily including the individual perspectives of reproductive and child health, as well as societal considerations and cultural sensitivities – is at the very basis of development of Afghanistan.
The health system shows real signs of recovery, but is still incapable of servicing the Afghan population to an acceptable degree. Distance to health centres and lack of female staff especially deprives women of the possibility to access health
facilities, implying that gender-specific perspectives are an essential part of policies aiming at health system improvement.
Improvement of the education system is also convincingly demonstrated in the NRVA analysis, although again present levels of school enrolment and literacy are very inadequate. Improvement of the quality of human capital by means
of education is indispensible for the development of Afghanistan’s governance and economy, as well as for improving conditions at the individual and household levels. In view of their disadvantaged positions, girls, rural populations and
adult illiterates should be among the primary target groups for education strategies.
Conclusions and Recommendations
115
