7
Methodological backgrounds of NRVA 20078
NRVA 2003 NRVA 2005
NRVA 2007 08 Staff and training
Several trainers involved in training of interviewers, resulting in variation in
interviewer performance. Uniform training by 2 trainers involved for
the whole country. Uniform training in one training session for
all field staff for the whole country. More detail and longer 17 days training.
Large number of part-time interviewers. More than 500 field staff were part-time
employed. 156 field staff selected. More transparent
method of staff selection short listing, test and interview from 12 thousand applicants.
Management and funding
Managed by WFPVAM Managed by Government CSO-MRRD
Managed by Government CSO-MRRD Funded by:
• Swiss Government • VAM Headquarters
• WFP Funded by:
• ECNSS main donor • WFP
• UNICEF Funded by:
• ECNSS main donor • WFP
• DFID • ADB
• UNICEF • WB
2.2.5 Data limitations
Even though the lessons learnt during design, implementation and analysis of NRVA 2003 and 2005 were integrated in the design of the NRVA 20078 survey, there are still some constraints and limitations in the data, especially with regard
to information on women and children:
•
Out of the 396 sampled districts, there were five that have not been accessible for security or other reasons in any time of the year. Figure 2.1 provides the accessibility information by fieldwork quarter.
•
Due to security problems there were no female interviewers in Urozgan province to administer female questionnaire sections. This especially had consequences for the information on reproductive health, child health and fertility
and mortality information. Only the food consumption part of female questionnaire sections was collected by male enumerators interviewing male respondents.
•
After the second month of fieldwork, the worsening security situation prohibited the female interviewers to continue data collection in Nooristan province. Considering the local culture of the province, male enumerators were able to
ask the female questionnaire directly to the female respondents.
•
Analysis of the population structure by sex and age shows under-enumeration of women and girls, and young children, especially infants. Although the coverage of these groups was far better than in 2005, significant numbers
are still omitted, a phenomenon that is typical for surveys in many developing countries and especially among Afghan populations. Cultural backgrounds related to the status of women and high infant mortality are likely the
reasons for these omissions.
8
Me th
o
d o
lo g
ic a
l b a
c k
g ro
u n
d s
o f
N R
V A
2 7
8
Figure 2.1 Survey accessibility, by quarter panels a-d, and by district a. First quarter September-November 2007
b. Second quarter December 2007-February 2008
c. Third quarter March-May 2008 d. Fourth quarter June - August 2008
9
Methodological backgrounds of NRVA 20078
3 Population structure and change
SUMMARY. The structure and size of a population, as well as their development over time are principal components
in development planning. Afghanistan is challenged by a rapid population growth, fuelled by very high fertility and signiicant in-migration in recent years. The Total Fertility Rate of 6.3 children per woman
is relected by an average household size of 7.3 persons and by an exceptionally high share of the population under age 15 49 percent. The corresponding dependency ratio of 133 only partly indicates
the burden on the country’s economy and society. Additional costs at the individual and household levels are paid in terms of high maternal and infant mortality, and low female participation in education and
income generating. The NRVA 20078 reveals an estimated infant mortality rate of 111 and an under- ive mortality rate of 161 per thousand live births. Despite the very high levels of these demographic
indicators, the NRVA also inds indications of decreasing child mortality and – more modestly – fertility. In addition to natural increase, Afghanistan’s population has substantially grown due to returning refugees,
predominantly from Pakistan and Iran. It is likely that additional net immigration is also a factor of population growth, with Iran being the leading country of origin and destination of migrants. By far the
most important reason for international migration was employment. This indicates the relatively weak labour market situation in Afghanistan, as well as the economic importance of labour migration for the
country’s economy. In terms of numbers, internal migration is even larger than international migration. Marriage is almost universal in Afghanistan and is characterized by early marriage for women, with a mean
age at irst marriage of 17.9. The combination of a relatively large age difference between spouses – on average husbands being nearly 7 years older than their wives – and the incidence of polygamy – 6 percent
– contributes to the large number of more than half a million widows in the country. NRVA indings also include a recent noticeable decline of early marriages and a steady drop in the spousal age difference. More
worrisome is the deicit in the statistics of very young children and females at adolescent and older ages. It is likely that this is caused by under-enumeration of these vulnerable groups.
3.1 Introduction
In the absence of a population census, a vital registration system or targeted nation-wide household surveys, it is difficult to assess the exact contribution of the principal factors of population development in Afghanistan. However, there can be
no doubt that high fertility and mortality, and large-scale international migration – including consecutive massive waves of refugees and, more recently, returnees – made a significant impact on the overall size and structure of the population.
In addition, geographic differentiation in fertility and mortality, as well as internal migration and movements of internally displaced persons IDPs have had major effects on the internal distribution of the population.
The NRVA is able to fill several gaps in the demographic picture of Afghanistan. Besides basic information on age and sex, the NRVA 20078 included modules that allow the assessment of fertility and infant and under-five mortality.
In addition, structured information on migration was collected. A full picture, and the possibility to produce population growth rates and population projections, are not feasible as of yet, because of the absence of adult mortality indicators,
life expectancy estimates and more adequate migration information.
This chapter first addresses the present population structure by age and sex, and its geographic distribution Section 3.2. Subsequently, Section 3.3 describes household structures and marriage patterns. Next sections elaborate the underlying
population processes of fertility and mortality Section 3.4, and migration 3.5.
