Population structure and change
21
Three out of four male out-migrants work as employees, while female out-migrants are more likely not economically active; also in their role as migrants, women remain a largely untapped economic resource. Only among women moving
abroad about one in three works as an employee.
Figure 3.5 Percentage male among out-migrants, by type of move
Table 3.11 Percentage distribution of population, by migration experience, and by sex, age
a
Sex, age Resident population
Out-migrants during
past year No migration
experience In-migrants
past 5 years Total
Male 1516-24
33 31
33 49
25-39 31
45 32
42 40+
36 24
35 9
Total 100
100 100
100
Female 1516-24
32 34
32 59
25-39 36
34 36
29 40+
32 33
32 12
Total 100
100 100
100
a
In-migrant population ages 16 and over, out-migrants ages 15 and over.
3.5.2 Security and returnees
As a consequence of the many years of war and civil unrest, a considerable number of people have fled, once or repeatedly. In recent years, large numbers of refugees and internally displaced have started to return or have resettled
elsewhere in Afghanistan. When asked, 60 percent of all households report that this large influx of refugees has affected them negatively during the past year, whether directly or indirectly. Such negative effects are more keenly felt in rural
areas 65 percent and among Kuchi households 61 percent than in the towns 39 percent.
In order to estimate the size of the phenomenon, heads of households were asked if their household had returned from displacement from outside or inside Afghanistan. Table 3.12 provides the main results. A total of 265 thousand
households have returned, 8 percent of all households and representing over two million people. Displacement has affected Kuchi households most. Half the households were internally displaced, either within the same province, or in
Population structure and change
22
another province a quarter each. A further quarter has come back from Iran, and the remaining quarter from Pakistan, together representing more than one million persons. Return from other countries has been negligible so far.
Table 3.12 Households returned from displacement, by current residence
Residence Returned houshoulds
Total Total
Of which from: Iran
Pakistan Other country
Afghanistan Same province
Other province
In thousands
Urban 76
18 30
1 17
10 Rural
122 45
32 1
33 12
Kuchi 67
2 10
12 42
Total 265
65 71
2 62
64 In percentages
Urban 11
23 39
1 23
13 100
Rural 5
37 26
1 27
10 100
Kuchi 35
4 15
18 64
100
Total 8
25 27
1 23
24 100
Based on the set of questions on general migration in the interview schedule, 5 percent of the households include an in-migrant who had left originally to seek security or protection elsewhere Table 3.13. The national average
hides significant differences between types of residence: urban and especially Kuchi households have substantially more returning security seekers than rural households. The low incidence in rural areas may partly be related to the
fact that returnees do not always go back to their rural place of origin, but instead settle in the towns and cities. It is important to note that the number of households reported differ substantially between Tables 3.12 and 3.13. The
former does not include a specific time frame, but that is unlikely to explain all of the difference. It is not obvious how to reconcile these figures.
Many more security seekers have ‘returned’ and settled in households in the past five years than new ones have left households during the past year Table 3.14. In total 87 thousand security seekers have returned, involving nearly 24
thousand households, while another 11 thousand left, involving 3 thousand households. In so far as they returned, they have stayed away for an average of 32 months. Almost half the returnees come from Pakistan. But two-thirds of those
who have moved away to seek security during the past year stayed within the same province; one in four went to Iran.
Table 3.13 Households with in-migrants past 5 years and out-migrants past year respectively, who left for reasons of securityprotection
Residence In-migrants
Out-migrants Thousands
Percentages Thousands
Percentages Urban
8.0 12
0.6 2
Rural 7.8
2 2.2
1 Kuchi
8.0 15
0.2 2
Total 23.8
5 3.0
1
Population structure and change
23
Table 3.14 Place of origindestination of security seekers
Place of origin Destination In-migrants
Out-migrants Thousands
Percentages Thousands
Percentages Same province, urban
3.0 3
3.0 27
Same province, rural 7.9
9 4.2
38 Other province, urban
9.0 10
0.2 2
Other province, rural 7.1
8 -
- Pakistan
48.7 56
- -
Iran 11.4
13 2.6
24 Arabian Peninsula
- -
0.8 8
Other country -
- 0.2
2 Total
87.2 100
11.0 100
Compared to all in-migrants, returning former security seekers are slightly higher educated. On the other hand, among security seeking out-migrants those with no education are over-represented 79 percent against 67 percent among all
out-migrants, as are those with tertiary education 4 against 2 percent.
3.6 Conclusions
Afghanistan faces the challenges of a very young and rapidly growing population. Among other things, these challenges emerge in high and increasing demand for education, health services and basic infrastructure, as well as in growing
numbers of youth entering the labour market. The present 15-19 years age group of 2.7 million, who should receive secondary education or look for jobs, will in five years time be replaced by the next age cohort, who presently number
3.7 million – one million more. Sectoral development planning and efforts to achieve the MDGs will have to take these perspectives into account. These prospects also emphasize the need of a comprehensive population policy addressing
the high levels of fertility and child mortality. For well-founded population policy and population projections required for development planning, a demographic and health survey and a full population census are urgently needed.
The large-scale return of refugees in recent years has augmented the pressure on Afghanistan’s infrastructure, labour market and resources. It is telling that the influx of refugees was by far the most frequently experienced shock for resident
households. Further investigation into the effects of this influx on the resident population and the present conditions of returned refugees and IDPs themselves is warranted.
Internal and international migration seem to be strategies applied by many to cope with the challenges facing Afghan households. Thirteen percent of households have a member who migrated in recent years, mostly for employment
reasons. The present analyses do not show any sign of brain drain in the international migration patterns. Given the apparent high mobility in the Afghan population, the population census should include a well-designed module to capture
international and internal migration patterns, especially also in view of population projections.
Special attention should also be given to full coverage of the population in census and survey activities. The common under-enumeration of very young children in developing countries is magnified in surveys among Afghan populations. This
is a feature that needs to be investigated in more detail, preferably also using qualitative research. In addition, it is likely that many women are omitted from the statistics, especially those in the adolescent and older age ranges. Each of these groups
can be considered in vulnerable conditions and, for instance, constitute specific target groups for health services.
Other vulnerable groups can be defined in terms of household structure. Some 70 thousand households are female- headed and some 380 thousand are headed by either elderly of 65 and over, or by heads under age 20. Also girls engaged
in early marriage can be considered in a vulnerable condition, since they often bear responsibilities beyond their physical and emotional capacity. Teenage pregnancy and related maternal health risks, and inequity due to large spousal age
differences are common challenges faced by these adolescent girls. The prevailing Afghan marriage pattern also leads to large numbers of widows at relatively young ages. Altogether, more than half a million women are widowed.
