Conclusion and Contributions Proceeding E Book 4A Turky
1997
forecasts. Since the SET allows firms to disclose only annual forecasts, firms are less likely to provide stand-alone quarterly forecasts. As for forecast items, this study documents that annual
forecasts both stand-alone annual and concurrent annual forecasts are more likely to be revenue forecasts; stand-alone quarterly forecasts are more likely to be earnings forecasts while
concurrent quarterly forecasts are more likely to be revenue forecasts. However, overall distribution show that most of management forecast, regardless forecast horizon, are more likely
to be revenue forecasts. The reason is because the SET does not permit firms to disclose earnings forecasts.
Moreover, this study examines forecast forms forecast firms choose for their forecasts and finds that quarterly revenue and earnings forecasts are more likely to be in the qualitative
and semi-numeric forms; annual revenue forecasts are more likely to be point estimates and in semi-numeric form while annual earnings forecasts are more likely to be in the qualitative form.
According to the disclosure guidelines mandated by the SET, firms do not provide quarterly forecasts. Compared to annual management forecasts, therefore, quarterly management
forecasts, regardless forecast item, are in less precise form. This study also documents that most of earnings forecasts, both quarterly and annual, reveal net income figures.
Moreover, this study investigates whether management forecasts of Thai listed firms are informative and documents that absolute cumulative abnormal returns around management
forecast dates are significantly positive, suggesting that management forecast disclosures are informative. Results are consistent with prior studies on information content of management
forecasts of US firms. Additionally, the information content of management forecast is not affected by industry forecast firms are in, forecast timing, and forecast horizon.
The study is the first study that provides empirical evidence on management forecast practices and the usefulness of management forecasts in Thailand. Our results provide
contributions to financial analysts and investors, management, and the Stock Exchange of Thailand.
1998
The findings in this study directly contribute to the SET. The empirical evidence on management forecast disclosure practices reveals that firms have many alternatives on forecast
characteristics to disclose their forecasts. This is beneficial to the SET in issuing its future policy. Finally, this study provides a contribution to the academic literature, specifically to
accounting research in Thailand. The findings in this study present management forecast practices and the informativeness of management forecasts in Thailand and therefore the
findings will assist accounting researchers in investigating other aspects of accounting research on management forecast disclosures.
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2001
Table 1 Reconciliation of Sample Data for Descriptive Statistics
Management forecasts
Forecast Firms
Management forecast obtained from NEWSCENTER Database
4,483 287
Less Management forecasts issued more than one disclosure
in each quarter 3,115
Total firm-quarters 1,368
Less Missing returns data 98
1,270 Less Missing earnings data
79 1,191
263
2002
Table 2 Sample Descriptive Statistics
UE SD_NI
SD_RET MV
All Firms
Mean -10.423
125,783.710 0.879
10,545.020 Std. Deviation
811.839 449,216.437
31.121 43,855.961
Maximum 10,460.747
8,108,700.932 1,152.383
676,933.400 75
16.807 67,622.486
0.030 5,061.920
50 Median 0.136
25,920.618 0.021
1,680.000 25
-20.546 10,677.900
0.014 646.000
Minimum -37,952.118
197.283 0.000
7.790 N
2,663 2,663
2,663 2,663
Forecast Firms
Mean 0.294
209,926.254 1.936
18,932.133 Std. Deviation
225.649 636,496.578
46.507 61,586.677
Maximum 5,845.109
8,108,700.932 1,152.383
676,933.400 75
20.888 115,451.363
0.030 10,435.590
50 Median 0.714
38,552.542 0.022
3,206.000 25
-21.544 16,002.498
0.016 1,110.000
Minimum -1,314.783
197.283 0.000
61.300 N
1,191 1,191
1,191 1,191
Non-forecast Firms
Mean -13.140
63,147.861 0.023
3,745.151 Std. Deviation
1,171.214 224,401.427
0.015 17,507.702
Maximum 16,350.543
5,079,855.116 0.115
483,923.400 75
13.006 44,934.485
0.030 2,859.805
50 Median -0.729
18,034.518 0.020
1,052.940 25
-20.322 7,926.425
0.013 459.720
Minimum -37,952.118
643.485 0.000
7.790 N
1,472 1,472
1,472 1,472
UE is price-deflated unexpected earnings, SD_RET is the standard deviation of returns, SD_NI is the standard deviation of reported earnings, and MV is market value or market capitalization in million baht.
For descriptive purpose, we report statistics on the actual, rather than a log of market capitalization. For the remaining tables, we use a log of market capitalization.
2003
Table 3 Number of Management Forecasts and Number of Forecast Firms
Sample Periods: January 2005 – December 2005 and July 2006 – June 2007
Industry No. of
management forecast
disclosures No. of
forecast firms Total
firms in the SET
of forecast
firms Average number of forecast per firm per
year Mean
Median Mode
S.D. Property
Construction 1,611
80 28 86
93 10.45
9.25 2.00
6.73 Industrials
806 53 18
77 69
8.50 7.50
1.00 6.49
Professional Services 666
58 20 85
68 6.41
6.00 2.00
4.82 Technology
547 32 11
37 86
9.36 7.75
4.00 6.24
Resources 454
21 7 24
88 12.26
11.50 7.50
5.86 AgroFood
270 26 9
47 55
5.62 2.00
1.00 7.41
Consumer Products 89
12 4 43
28 4.38
4.50 1.00
3.43 Non-Performing Group
40 5 2
20 25
2.90 3.00
3.00 0.74
Total 4,483
287 100 419
68 8.46
7.50 1.00
6.46
2004
Table 4 Frequency of Management Forecast Disclosures
Sample Periods: January 2005 – December 2005 and July 2006 – June 2007
No. of management forecast disclosures
No. of forecast firms 5
111 39 5-10
74 26 11-15
60 21 16-20
25 9 21-25
11 4 26-30
6 2 Total
287 100 Average times
8.46
2005
Table 5 Timing for Management Forecast Disclosures
Sample Periods: January 2005 – December 2005 and July 2006 – June 2007
No. of days
Before end of period After end of period
Total Quarterly
Forecast Annual
Forecast Total
Quarterly Forecast
Annual Forecast
Total 0-15
342 111
453 323
80 403
856 16-30
305 97
402 392
109 501
903 31-45
313 103
416 325
95 404
820 46-60
108 72
180 -
52 68
248 61-75
24 55
79 -
1 1
80 76-90
33 76
109 -
1 1
110 91-105
38 97
135 -
- -
135 106-120
63 99
162 -
- -
162 121-135
51 101
152 -
- -
152 136-150
27 52
79 -
- -
79 151-165
7 55
62 -
- -
62 166-180
7 59
66 -
- -
66 180
15 795
810 -
- -
810 Total
1,333 1,772
3,105 1,040
338 1,378
4,483 Average
days 44.02
169.69 22.98
28.23
2006
Table 6 Management Forecast Horizons and Management Forecast Items
Sample Periods: January 2005 – December 2005 and July 2006 – June 2007
Forecast Horizon No. of MF
disclosures No. of forecast
period Forecast item of quarterly forecast
Forecast item of annual forecast Quarter
Annual Revenue
Earnings Revenue
and Earnings
Total Revenue
Earnings Revenue
and Earnings
Total Stand-alone quarterly forecast
One quarter 359
359 -
107 160
92 359
- -
- -
Two quarters 58
116 -
41 60
15 116
- -
- -
Three quarters 5
15 -
7 7
1 15
- -
- -
Four quarters 1
4 -
1 2
1 4
- -
- -
Subtotal 1 423
494 -
156 229
109 494
- -
- -
32 46
22
Stand-alone annual forecast
One year 1,460
- 1,460
- -
- -
993 155
312 1,460
Two years 622
- 1,244
- -
- -
914 120
210 1,244
Three years 7
- 21
- -
- -
18 2
1 21
Subtotal 2 2,089
- 2,725
- -
- -
1,925 277
523 2,725
71 10
19 Concurrent quarterly and
annual forecast
One quarter and one year 1,312
1,312 1,312
653 405
254 1,312
949 97
266 1,312
One quarter and two years 340
340 680
185 100
55 340
475 78
127 680
Two quarters and one year 242
484 242
264 172
48 484
175 14
53 242
Others 77
191 130
132 44
15 191
97 9
24 130
Subtotal 3 1,971
2,327 2,364
1,234 721
372 2,327
1,696 198
470 2,364
53 31
16 71
9 20
Total 1+ 2 + 3 4,483
2,821 5,089
1,390 950
481 2,821
3,621 475
993 5,089
49 34
17 71
9 20
2007
Table 7 Forecast Forms of Management Revenue and Earnings Forecasts
Sample Periods: January 2005 – December 2005 and July 2006 – June 2007
Panel A: Revenue Forecast Forecast Horizon
Quantitative Qualitative
Sales Volume
Total Point
Range Open-
ended Semi-
numeric Total
Quarterly forecast 170
9 39
2 58
3 741
40 1,008
54 818
44 45
2 1,871
a
100 Annual forecast
1,971 43
420 9
342 7
1,090 24
3,823 83
704 15
87 2
4,614
b
100 Total
2,141 33
459 7
400 6
1,831 28
4,831 74
1,522 24
132 2
6,485 100
a
1,871 quarterly revenue forecasts consist of 1,390 forecasts which are provided only quarterly revenue forecasts and 481 forecasts which are provided both quarterly revenue and earnings forecasts. Both figures are presented at bottom line in Table 6.
b
4,614 annual revenue forecasts consist of 3,621 forecasts which are provided only annual revenue forecasts and 993 forecasts which are provided both annual revenue and earnings forecasts. Both figures are presented at bottom line in Table 6.
2008
Table 7 Continued Forecast Forms of Management Revenue and Earnings Forecasts
Sample Periods: January 2005 – December 2005 and July 2006 – June 2007
Panel B.1: Earnings Forecast
Forecast Horizon Quantitative
Qualitative Total
Point Range
Open- ended
Semi- numeric
Total Quarterly
forecast 28
2 14
1 11
1 467
33 520
36 911
64 1,431
c
100 Annual forecast
317 22
140 10
78 12
287 20
822 56
646 44
1,468
d
100 Total
345 12
154 5
89 3
754 26
1,342 46
1,557 54
2,899 100
Panel B.2: Earnings Forecast
Forecast Horizon NI
NI GM
GM EBITDA EBITDA
Total Quarterly
forecast 1,372
96 13
1 2
0.5 39
2 5
0.5 -
1,431
c
100 Annual forecast
966 66
111 7
5 0.5
356 24
28 2
2 0.5
1,468
d
100 Total
2,338 81
124 4
7 0.5
395 13
33 1
2 0.5
2,899 100
c
1,431 quarterly earnings forecasts consist of 950 forecasts which are provided only quarterly earnings forecasts and 481 forecasts which are provided both quarterly earnings and revenue forecasts. Both
figures are presented at bottom line in Table 6.
d
1,468 annual earnings forecasts consist of 475 forecast which are provided only annual earnings forecasts and 993 forecasts which are provided both annual earnings and revenue forecasts. Both figures
are presented at bottom line in Table 6.
2009
Table 8 Reconciliation of Sample Data for Test of Information Content
Management forecasts
Firms Management forecast obtained from NEWSCENTER
Database 4,483
287 Less Observations which have other events within 14
days surrounding management forecast date 2,028
2,455 266
Less Missing DataStream daily returns 91
Final Sample 2,364
260
2010
Table 9 Market Reaction to Management Forecast Disclosure
Distribution of MF Disclosures No. of
ACAR
a
Disclosures -1,+1
-2,+2 -3,+3
Total Sample 2,364
0.043 0.056
0.064 Industry
Agro Food 145
0.027 0.036
0.042 Consumer Products
45 0.027
0.040 0.051
Industrials 429
0.033 0.052
0.059 Property Construction
871 0.064
0.071 0.083
Resources 225
0.027 0.035
0.039 Professional Services
364 0.030
0.052 0.058
Technology 285
0.032 0.047
0.053 Total
2,364 Forecast Timing
b
Before End of Period 1,636
0.035 0.043
0.053 After End of Period
728 0.061
0.084 0.087
Total 2,364
Forecast Horizon
c
Stand-alone Quarterly Forecast 225
0.030 0.036
0.048 Stand-alone Annual Forecast
1,054 0.038
0.052 0.061
Concurrent Annual-Quarter Forecast 1,085
0.050 0.064
0.070 Total
2,364
Statistically significant at two-tailed 0.01 level.
a
Absolute Cumulative Abnormal Returns ACAR is computed by compounding abnormal returns on selected windows and then taking the absolute term on cumulative abnormal returns.
b
We classify forecast timing into two groups. The first group consists of management forecasts which are provided before end of accounting period while the second group consists of management forecasts which
are provided after end of accounting period.
c
We classify forecast horizon into three groups. The first group consists of management forecast disclosures which are provided stand-alone quarterly forecasts. The second group consists of
management forecast disclosures which are provided stand-alone annual forecasts. The final group consists of management forecast disclosures which are concurrently provided both quarterly and annual
forecasts.
2011
IS AN EVENT RESPONDED BY INVESTORS AS A NON-EVENT? INQUISITIVE EVIDENCES WHEN DIFFERENTIATED BETWEEN
FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC INVES TORS’ REACTIONS
Bambang Riyanto LS Sumiyana
Universitas Gadjah Mada
Abstract This research investigates that merger and acquisition MA
announcements are able to stimulate abnormal return, rank of excess return and abnormal trading volume. Based on efficient market
hypothesis and microstructure theory, it is predicted that price or return and trading volume will react to the MA announcements. In this study,
the market reactions are further examined for each type of investors: domestic and foreign. More specifically, the price movements of each of
these two types of investors are analyzed thoroughly to explore if domestic investors have superior access to information than the foreign
investors.
This study finds that market do not react to the MA announcement. It means that MA news does not lead to positive abnormal return, rank of
excess return and abnormal trading volume. This may suggest that MA announcement has no information contents. Consequently, it also has no
value relevance. It is argued that MA announcements may have been fully anticipated by investors before it is made public announced.
Therefore, this study suggests that an information leakage exists in It is further argued that information leakage exists in Indonesia Stock
Exchange IDX whenever MA news announced. Finally, this study concludes that the information leakages are dominantly carried out by
domestic investors as actors of insider trading. Keywords: event study, domestic and foreign investors, abnormal return,
rank of excess return, abnormal trading volume, information leakage, information contents, value relevance, insider
trading
JEL Classification: G-11, G-14, M-41
2012