Metode Double Exponential Smoothing

Lampiran 2

d. Metode Double Exponential Smoothing

Tabel L2.58 Peramalan metode double exponential smoothing item 216 mm x 22 m t dt St St a t b t F t+m dt - dt dt - dt 2 1 14 - - - - - - - 2 15 14,2 14,04 14,36 0,04 - - - 3 14 14,16 14,064 14,256 0,024 14,4 -0,40 0,16 4 24 16,128 14,477 17,779 0,4128 14,28 9,72 94,48 5 19 16,702 14,922 18,483 0,44512 18,192 0,81 0,65 6 12 15,762 15,09 16,434 0,168 18,928 -6,93 48,00 7 20 16,61 15,394 17,825 0,30392 16,6019 3,40 11,55 8 21 17,488 15,813 19,163 0,41876 18,1292 2,87 8,24 9 17 17,39 16,128 18,652 0,3155 19,5814 -2,58 6,66 10 19 17,712 16,445 18,979 0,3168 18,9676 0,03 0,00 11 20 18,17 16,79 19,549 0,34495 19,2961 0,70 0,50 12 25 19,536 17,339 21,732 0,54918 19,8944 5,11 26,07 13 21 19,829 17,837 21,82 0,49791 22,2816 -1,28 1,64 14 22 20,263 18,322 22,204 0,48519 22,3181 -0,32 0,10 15 18 19,81 18,62 21,001 0,29763 22,6888 -4,69 21,98 16 11 18,048 18,505 17,591 -0,1143 21,2985 -10,30 106,06 17 14 17,239 18,252 16,225 -0,2534 17,4767 -3,48 12,09 18 18 17,391 18,08 16,702 -0,1722 15,9717 2,03 4,11 19 19 17,713 18,006 17,419 -0,0734 16,5297 2,47 6,10 20 10 16,17 17,639 14,701 -0,3673 17,3456 -7,35 53,96 21 16 16,136 17,339 14,934 -0,3006 14,3339 1,67 2,78 22 17 16,309 17,133 15,485 -0,2059 14,6331 2,37 5,60 23 20 17,047 17,116 16,979 -0,0171 15,2792 4,72 22,29 24 18 17,238 17,14 17,335 0,02443 16,9616 1,04 1,08 25 - - - - - 17,3599 - - TOTAL 434,09 MSE 19,732 Perhitungan : Metode Browns Inisialisasi : 2 , = α S’ 1 = d 1 S” 1 = d 1 S’ t = α .d t + 1- α .S’ t-1 S’ 2 = 0,2. d 2 + 1-0,2. S’ 1 = 0,2.15 + 0,8.14 = 14,2 S’ 3 = 0,2. d 3 + 1-0,2. S’ 2 = 0,2.14 + 0,8.14,2 = 14,16 S” t = α .S’ t + 1- α .S” t-1 S” 2 = 0,2. S’ 2 + 1-0,2. S” 1 = 0,2.14,2 + 0,8.14 = 14,04 S” 3 = 0,2. S’ 3 + 1-0,2. S” 2 = 0,2.14,16 + 0,8.14,04 = 14,064 a t = 2.S’ t – S” t a 2 = 2. S’ 2 – S” 2 = 214,2 – 14,04 = 28,4 – 14,04 = 14,36 Lampiran 2 b t = 1 α α − . S’ t – S” t b 2 = 0,2 1-0,2 . S’ 2 – S” 2 = 0,2 0,8 . 14,2-14,04 = 0,25.0,16 = 0,04 F t+m = a t + b t .m m = 1 Æ 1 periode ke depan F 2+1 = F 3 = d 3 ’ = a 2 + b 2 .1 = 14,36 + 0,041 = 14,4 dt – dt’ = d 3 – d 3 ’ = 14 – 14,4 = -0,4 dt – dt’ 2 = d 3 – d 3 ’ 2 = -0,4 2 = 0,16 732 , 19 22 09 , 434 1 2 = = − = ∑ = n d d MSE n t t t

e. Metode Triple Exponential Smoothing