Lampiran 2
d. Metode Double Exponential Smoothing
Tabel L2.58 Peramalan metode double exponential smoothing item 216 mm x 22 m
t dt
St St
a
t
b
t
F
t+m
dt - dt dt - dt
2
1 14
- -
- -
- -
- 2
15 14,2
14,04 14,36
0,04 -
- -
3 14
14,16 14,064
14,256 0,024
14,4 -0,40
0,16 4
24 16,128
14,477 17,779
0,4128 14,28
9,72 94,48
5 19
16,702 14,922
18,483 0,44512 18,192
0,81 0,65
6 12
15,762 15,09
16,434 0,168
18,928 -6,93
48,00 7
20 16,61
15,394 17,825 0,30392 16,6019
3,40 11,55
8 21
17,488 15,813
19,163 0,41876 18,1292 2,87
8,24 9
17 17,39
16,128 18,652
0,3155 19,5814
-2,58 6,66
10 19
17,712 16,445
18,979 0,3168
18,9676 0,03
0,00 11
20 18,17
16,79 19,549 0,34495 19,2961
0,70 0,50
12 25
19,536 17,339
21,732 0,54918 19,8944 5,11
26,07 13
21 19,829
17,837 21,82
0,49791 22,2816 -1,28
1,64 14
22 20,263
18,322 22,204 0,48519 22,3181
-0,32 0,10
15 18
19,81 18,62
21,001 0,29763 22,6888 -4,69
21,98 16
11 18,048
18,505 17,591
-0,1143 21,2985 -10,30
106,06 17
14 17,239
18,252 16,225
-0,2534 17,4767 -3,48
12,09 18
18 17,391
18,08 16,702
-0,1722 15,9717 2,03
4,11 19
19 17,713
18,006 17,419
-0,0734 16,5297 2,47
6,10 20
10 16,17
17,639 14,701
-0,3673 17,3456 -7,35
53,96 21
16 16,136
17,339 14,934
-0,3006 14,3339 1,67
2,78 22
17 16,309
17,133 15,485
-0,2059 14,6331 2,37
5,60 23
20 17,047
17,116 16,979
-0,0171 15,2792 4,72
22,29 24
18 17,238
17,14 17,335 0,02443 16,9616
1,04 1,08
25 -
- -
- -
17,3599 -
- TOTAL
434,09 MSE
19,732
Perhitungan : Metode Browns Inisialisasi :
2 ,
= α
S’
1
= d
1
S”
1
= d
1
S’
t
= α .d
t
+ 1- α .S’
t-1
S’
2
= 0,2. d
2
+ 1-0,2. S’
1
= 0,2.15 + 0,8.14 = 14,2 S’
3
= 0,2. d
3
+ 1-0,2. S’
2
= 0,2.14 + 0,8.14,2 = 14,16 S”
t
= α .S’
t
+ 1- α .S”
t-1
S”
2
= 0,2. S’
2
+ 1-0,2. S”
1
= 0,2.14,2 + 0,8.14 = 14,04 S”
3
= 0,2. S’
3
+ 1-0,2. S”
2
= 0,2.14,16 + 0,8.14,04 = 14,064 a
t
= 2.S’
t
– S”
t
a
2
= 2. S’
2
– S”
2
= 214,2 – 14,04 = 28,4 – 14,04 = 14,36
Lampiran 2
b
t
=
1
α α
−
. S’
t
– S”
t
b
2
= 0,2 1-0,2 . S’
2
– S”
2
= 0,2 0,8 . 14,2-14,04 = 0,25.0,16 = 0,04 F
t+m
= a
t
+ b
t
.m m = 1
Æ 1 periode ke depan F
2+1
= F
3
= d
3
’ = a
2
+ b
2
.1 = 14,36 + 0,041 = 14,4 dt – dt’ = d
3
– d
3
’ = 14 – 14,4 = -0,4 dt – dt’
2
= d
3
– d
3
’
2
= -0,4
2
= 0,16
732 ,
19 22
09 ,
434
1 2
= =
− =
∑
=
n d
d MSE
n t
t t
e. Metode Triple Exponential Smoothing
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