Lampiran 2
f. Metode Double Moving Average
Tabel L2.60 Peramalan metode
double moving average item 216 mm x 22 m
t dt
St St
a
t
b
t
F
t+m
dt - dt dt - dt
2
1 14
- -
- -
- -
- 2
15 -
- -
- -
- -
3 14
- -
- -
- -
- 4
24 -
- -
- -
- -
5 19
16,75 -
- -
- -
- 6
12 18
- -
- -
- -
7 20
17,25 -
- -
- -
- 8
21 18,75
- -
- -
- -
9 17
18 17,688
18,313 0,2083
- -
- 10
19 17,5
18 17
-0,3333 18,520833 0,4791667 0,2296007 11
20 19,25
17,875 20,625
0,9167 16,666667 3,3333333 11,111111
12 25
19,25 18,375
20,125 0,5833
21,541667 3,4583333 11,960069 13
21 20,25
18,5 22
1,1667 20,708333 0,2916667 0,0850694
14 22
21,25 19,063
23,438 1,4583
23,166667 -1,166667
1,3611111 15
18 22
20 24
1,3333 24,895833
-6,895833 47,552517
16 11
21,5 20,688
22,313 0,5417
25,333333 -14,33333
205,44444 17
14 18
21,25 14,75
-2,1667 22,854167 -8,854167
78,396267 18
18 16,25
20,688 11,813 -2,9583 12,583333 5,4166667 29,340278
19 19
15,25 19,438
11,063 -2,7917 8,8541667 10,145833 102,93793 20
10 15,5
17,75 13,25
-1,5 8,2708333 1,7291667 2,9900174
21 16
15,25 16,25
14,25 -0,6667
11,75 4,25
18,0625 22
17 15,75
15,563 15,938
0,125 13,583333 3,4166667 11,673611
23 20
15,5 15,438
15,563 0,0417
16,0625 3,9375
15,503906 24
18 15,75
15,5 16
0,1667 15,604167 2,3958333 5,7400174
25 -
17,75 15,563
- -
16,166667 -
- 26
- -
16,188 -
- -
- -
TOTAL 542,38845
MSE 36,159
Perhitungan : N = 4
75 ,
16 4
67 4
24 14
15 14
4
4 3
2 1
5
= =
+ +
+ =
+ +
+ =
d d
d d
S 6875
, 17
4 75
, 70
4 75
, 18
25 ,
17 18
75 ,
16 4
8 7
6 5
9
= =
+ +
+ =
+ +
+ =
S S
S S
S
a
t
= S’
t
+ S’
t
- S”
t
a
9
= S’
9
+ S’
9
- S”
9
= 18 + 18 – 17,6875 = 18,3125 b
t
= 2 N-1 .S’
t
- S”
t
b
9
= 2 4-1 .S’
9
- S”
9
= 23.18 – 17,6875 = 0,20833
Lampiran 2
F
t+m
= a
t
+ b
t
.m m
= 1
Æ 1 periode ke depan F
9+1
= F
10
= d
10
’ = a
9
+ b
9
.1 = 18,3125 + 0,208331 = 18,520833 dt – dt’ = d
10
– d
10
’ = 19 – 18,520833 = 0,4791667 dt – dt’
2
= d
10
– d
10
’
2
= 0,4791667
2
= 0,2296007
159 ,
36 15
38845 ,
542
1 2
= =
− =
∑
=
n d
d MSE
n t
t t
Setelah dilakukan peramalan dengan keenam metode diatas, maka dipilih metode peramalan terbaik berdasarkan nilai MSE terkecil.
Tabel L2.61 Metode peramalan terbaik
item 216 mm x 22 m
Metode MSE
Kesimpulan Regresi Linier
14,277 -
Regresi Siklis 13,795
- Regresi Linier Siklis
13,725 TERPILIH
Double Exponential Smoothing 19,732
- Triple Exponential Smoothing
20,319 -
Double Moving Average 36,159
-
Tabel L2.62 Peramalan untuk
item 216 mm x 22 m
Periode bulan
Apr-07 17,7
18 Mei-07
16,622 17
Jun-07 16,063
17 Jul-07
16,544 17
Agust-07 17,544
18 Sep-07
18,024 19
Okt-07 17,466
18 Nop-07
16,388 17
Des-07 15,829
16 Jan-08
16,31 17
Feb-08 17,31
18 Mar-08
17,79 18
TOTAL Permintaan
unit
210
≈ ≈
≈ ≈
≈ ≈
≈ ≈
≈ ≈
≈ ≈
Lampiran 2
2.2 Kode atau Jenis Produk = 216 mm x 24 m Kertas Profax
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