Lampiran 2
Persamaan Siklis : t
N c
t N
b a
d
t
π π
2 sin
. 2
cos .
+ +
= 60
sin .
144 ,
60 cos
667 ,
17 t
t d
t
− +
= dt’= d
1
’ = 17,667 + cos601 – 0,144.sin601 = 17,667 + 0,5 – 0,125 = 18,042 dt – dt’ = d
1
– d
1
’ = 14 – 18,042 = -4,042 dt – dt’
2
= d
1
– d
1
’
2
= -4,042
2
= 16,340127
795 ,
13 24
08334 ,
331
1 2
= =
− =
∑
=
n d
d MSE
n t
t t
c. Metode Regresi Linier Siklis
Tabel L2.57 Peramalan metode regresi linier siklis item 216 mm x 22 m
t dt
t
2
dt . t dt
dt - dt dt - dt
2
1 14
0,5 0,86603
1 14
0,5 0,8660254
7 12,12435564
0,25 0,75
0,433012702 18,45 -4,452 19,81944
2 15
-0,5 0,86603
4 30
-1 1,7320508
-7,5 12,99038105
0,25 0,75
-0,433012702 17,37 -2,374 5,635414
3 14
-1 9
42 -3
-14 1
17 -2,999 8,994001
4 24
-0,5 -0,866
16 96
-2 -3,464102
-12 -20,7846097
0,25 0,75
0,433012702 17,66
6,337 40,15633 5
19 0,5
-0,866 25
95 2,5
-4,330127 9,5
-16,4544827 0,25
0,75 -0,433012702
18,66 0,337 0,113503
6 12
1 36
72 6
12 1
18,96 -6,96
48,4416 7
20 0,5
0,86603 49
140 3,5
6,0621778 10
17,32050806 0,25
0,75 0,433012702
18,22 1,782 3,175871
t N
π
2 cos
t N
π
2 sin
t N
t
π
2 cos
. t
N t
π
2 sin
. t
N d
t
π
2 cos
. t
N d
t
π
2 sin
. t
N
π
2 cos
2
t N
π
2 sin
2
t N
t N
π π
2 sin
. 2
cos
Lampiran 2
Tabel L2.57 Peramalan metode regresi linier siklis item 216 mm x 22 m lanjutan
t dt
t
2
dt . t dt
dt - dt dt - dt
2
8 21
-0,5 0,866025
64 168
-4 6,9282032
-10,5 18,18653346
0,25 0,75
-0,433012702 17,14
3,86 14,90035
9 17
-1 81
153 -9
-17 1
16,77 0,235 0,055225
10 19
-0,5 -0,86603 100
190 -5
-8,660254 -9,5
-16,4544827 0,25
0,75 0,433012702
17,43 1,571 2,467735
11 20
0,5 -0,86603 121
220 5,5
-9,526279 10
-17,3205081 0,25
0,75 -0,433012702
18,43 1,571 2,467735
12 25
1 144
300 12
25 1
18,73 6,274 39,36308
13 21
0,5 0,866025 169
273 6,5
11,25833 10,5
18,18653346 0,25
0,75 0,433012702
17,98 3,016 9,096843
14 22
-0,5 0,866025 196
308 -7
12,124356 -11
19,05255887 0,25
0,75 -0,433012702
16,91 5,094 25,94983
15 18
-1 225
270 -15
-18 1
16,53 1,469 2,157961
16 11
-0,5 -0,86603 256
176 -8
-13,85641 -5,5
-9,52627943 0,25
0,75 0,433012702
17,2 -6,195 38,37923
17 14
0,5 -0,86603 289
238 8,5
-14,72243 7
-12,1243556 0,25
0,75 -0,433012702
18,2 -4,195 17,59884
18 18
1 324
324 18
18 1
18,49 -0,492 0,242064 19
19 0,5
0,866025 361 361
9,5 16,454483
9,5 16,45448266
0,25 0,75
0,433012702 17,75
1,25 1,562743
20 10
-0,5 0,866025 400
200 -10
17,320508 -5
8,66025403 0,25
0,75 -0,433012702
16,67 -6,672 44,51428 21
16 -1
441 336
-21 -16
1 16,3
-0,297 0,088209 22
17 -0,5
-0,86603 484 374
-11 -19,05256
-8,5 -14,7224319
0,25 0,75
0,433012702 16,96
0,039 0,001513 23
20 0,5
-0,86603 529 460
11,5 -19,91858
10 -17,3205081
0,25 0,75
-0,433012702 17,96
2,039 4,157124 24
18 1
576 432
24 18
1 18,26 -0,258 0,066564
TOTAL 300 424 4900 5272
12 -20,78461
12 -1,73205081
12 12
424 -0,02 329,4055
MSE 13,725
t N
π
2 cos
t N
π
2 sin
t N
t
π
2 cos
. t
N t
π
2 sin
. t
N d
t
π
2 cos
. t
N d
t
π
2 sin
. t
N
π
2 cos
2
t N
π
2 sin
2
t N
t N
π π
2 sin
. 2
cos
Perhitungan : n = 24
N = 6 π = 180
60 6
360 6
180 2
2 =
= =
N π
t N
d t
N c
t b
n a
d
n t
n t
n t
n t
t
∑ ∑
∑ ∑
= =
= =
+ +
+ =
1 1
1 1
2 sin
. 2
cos .
. .
π π
Lampiran 2
424 = 24
a
+ 300
b
+ 0 + 0 24
a
+ 300
b
= 424
a
= 17,667 – 12,5
b
...persamaan 1
t N
t d
t N
t c
t b
t a
t d
n t
n t
n t
n t
n t
t
∑ ∑
∑ ∑
∑
= =
= =
=
+ +
+ =
1 1
1 2
1 1
2 sin
. .
2 cos
. .
. .
. π
π
5272 = 300
a
+ 4900
b
+ 12
c
- 20,78461
d
300
a
+ 4900
b
+ 12
c
- 20,78461
d
= 5272 ...persamaan 2
2 sin
. 2
cos .
2 cos
. 2
cos .
. 2
cos .
2 cos
.
1 1
1 2
1 1
t N
t N
d t
N c
t N
t b
t N
a t
N d
n t
n t
n t
n t
n t
t
π π
π π
π π
∑ ∑
∑ ∑
∑
= =
= =
=
+ +
+ =
12 = 0 + 12
b
+ 12
c
+ 0 12
b
+ 12
c
= 12
c
= 1 -
b
...persamaan 3
t N
d t
N t
N c
t N
t b
t N
a t
N d
n t
n t
n t
n t
n t
t
π π
π π
π π
2 sin
. 2
sin .
2 cos
. 2
sin .
. 2
sin .
2 sin
.
1 2
1 1
1 1
∑ ∑
∑ ∑
∑
= =
= =
=
+ +
+ =
-1,73205081 = 0 – 20,78461
b
+ 0 + 12
d
-20,78461
b
+ 12
d
= -1,73205081
d
= -0,144 + 1,732
b
...persamaan 4
Masukkan persamaan 1, persamaan 3, dan persamaan 4 ke persamaan 2 : 300
a
+ 4900
b
+ 12
c
- 20,78461
d
= 5272
Lampiran 2
300 17,667 – 12,5
b
+ 4900
b
+ 12 1 -
b
– 20,78461 -0,144 + 1,732
b
= 5272 5300,1 – 3750
b
+ 4900
b
+ 12 – 12
b
+ 2,993 – 35,999
b
= 5272 1102,001
b
+ 5315,093 = 5272 1102,001
b
= -43,093 Æ
b
= -0,039 Persamaan Linier Siklis :
t N
d t
N c
bt a
d
t
π π
2 sin
. 2
cos .
+ +
+ =
Masukkan nilai
b
= -0,039 ke persamaan 1 : 60
sin .
212 ,
60 cos
. 039
, 1
039 ,
155 ,
18 t
t t
d
t
− +
− =
a
= 17,667 – 12,5
b
d
t
’ = d
1
’ = 18,155 - 0,039.1 + 1,039.cos601 – 0,212.sin601
a
= 17,667 – 12,5 -0,039 Æ
a
= 18,155 d
1
’ = 18,155 - 0,039 + 0,5195 – 0,184 = 18,452 dt – dt’ = d
1
– d
1
’ = 14 – 18,452 = -4,452 Masukkan nilai
b
= -0,039 ke persamaan 3 : dt – dt’
2
= d
1
– d
1
’
2
= -4,452
2
= 19,81944
c
= 1 -
b
= 1 – -0,039 = 1,039
725 ,
13 24
4055 ,
329
1 2
= =
− =
∑
=
n d
d MSE
n t
t t
Masukkan nilai
b
= -0,039 ke persamaan 4 :
d
= -0,144 + 1,732
b d
= -0,144 + 1,732 -0,039 Æ
d
= -0,212
Lampiran 2
d. Metode Double Exponential Smoothing
