Childhood mortality Afghanistan - National Risk and Vulnerability Survey 2011-2012, Living Conditions Survey NRVA 2011 12 report

17 Migration concepts A seasonal migrant is a person who spends at least one month, but less than a year away from the household for seasonal work. In this report, migration analysis distinguishes two different time dimensions. Life-time migration occurs when a person currently lives in an area different from where heshe was born. Recent migration is measured as migration since a speciic point in recent time. Here this point is deined as October 2004, since many people will remember where they lived during the presidential elections at that time. The annual immigration and in-migration ratio are calculated as, respectively the immigrant and in-migrant population as percentage of the resident population. The emigration and out-migration rate are calculated as the number of, respectively, emigrants and out- migrants as percentage of the resident population in the area of departure. Migration is deined by the act of crossing a border and going to live elsewhere for at least a year. Crossing the border of two countries represents international migration. People who enter a country are immigrants and those who leave a country are emigrants. Crossing administrative boundaries within a country represents internal migration. Persons moving into an area from within the country are labeled here as in-migrants, those who move to another area within the country are labeled as out-migrants. Internal migration can be measured at different levels. In this report two levels are distinguished: internal migration between districts and that between provinces. Inter-provincial migration always involves migration between districts, but the opposite does not necessarily hold true. Emigration and out-migration are under-estimated to the extent that complete households have moved away. The mobility of the Afghan population is shown by the inding that some 5.1 million people 18.8 percent were born outside the district where they now reside, either in another district in Afghanistan or abroad. Half of these movers 2.6 million were also born outside the province of current residence, and some 827 thousand 3.1 percent were born abroad Table 3.6, panel a. Table 3.6: Percentage of population living outside the district of current residence a at birth and b in October 2004, by previous place of residence, sex, and by current residence Place of current residence a. Place of birth: in other b. Place of residence in October 2004: in other country province districta country province district a Urban 4.3 17.5 35.9 6.9 7.6 15.7 Rural 2.6 2.0 8.0 2.5 0.8 2.6 National b 3.1 6.4 15.7 3.6 2.7 6.2 a Figures for previous residence in other district include those with previous residence in other province, i.e. these are counted twice. b National includes the Kuchi population. As expected, the share of persons born elsewhere is higher in urban than in rural areas: more than one-third 35.9 percent of the urban population has moved to another place of residence within Afghanistan since birth, whereas only 8.0 percent of the rural population did so. Also in absolute terms do urban areas accommodate more life-time in-migrants from within Afghanistan: 2.2 million against 1.9 million for rural areas. Urban areas again house in relative terms more persons born abroad than rural areas 4.3 against 2.6 percent, but in absolute numbers more life-time immigrants have moved to rural areas. Information about the place of residence in October 2004 shows a similar pattern: the share of the population that lived elsewhere seven years before the survey is much higher in urban areas than in rural areas, and of all internal migrants that took up residence in rural areas 2.6 percent of the total rural population less than a third 0.8 percentage points came from outside the province of current residence. In urban areas almost one in six persons 15.7 percent lived elsewhere in Afghanistan in 2004, half of whom in another province. Urban areas also accommodate a relatively larger share of people who immigrated from abroad since 2004 6.9 percent, compared to 2.5 percent in rural areas, although in absolute numbers more recent immigrants are living in rural areas. The igures for life-time and recent in-migrants indicate that settling in a new, rural area is relatively uncommon, but less so for immigrants. To the extent that it concerns internal migration, it is largely short-distance moves from neighbouring districts within the province. Possible explanations for this are the limited economic opportunities in the rural sector and the closed community structure in Afghan society, which impede integration of outsiders. With regard to out-migrants, NRVA 2011-12 shows that in the year before the survey 303 thousand people of 14 years and over had left the household to live somewhere outside the district of residence. More than two-ifth of these remained within the province and one-ifth 65 thousand moved to another province within Afghanistan. No less than one in three persons leaving the household 107 thousand went to live abroad. POPULATION STRUCTURE AND CHANGE 18

3.5.2 International migration

Immigrants’ country of origin and urban-rural settlement NRVA 2011-12 indicates that 3.1 percent 827 thousand of the population was born abroad. 4 The most important country of birth is Pakistan, where 77 percent of the life-time immigrants were born 638 thousand persons, followed by Iran with 21 percent 174 thousand Table 3.7, panel a . Other countries of birth are insigniicant with only just over one percent of persons born abroad. Of the life-time immigrants 32 percent now reside in urban areas and 60 percent in rural areas the remaining part being Kuchis. For the non-Kuchi population this implies that in proportion to the overall settled population 24 percent urban and 76 percent rural a preference for urban settlement is observed. This preference is stronger for immigrants from Iran than for those coming from Pakistan. Of the non-Kuchi life-time immigrants born in Pakistan, 28 percent now live in urban areas and 72 in rural areas. For the settled immigrants born in Iran a majority of 56 percent has settled in urban areas, compared to 44 in rural areas. Another difference in the migratory patterns between Pakistan and Iran is the signiicance of Kuchi immigration from the former country and its virtual absence from the latter. The picture for recent immigration is quite similar to that of life-time immigration Table 3.7, panel b. The total number of persons who lived abroad in October 2004 is of the same order of magnitude 725 thousand and again Pakistan and Iran – respectively with 67 and 32 percent – dwarf any other country of previous residence. Recent immigrants from Iran again settle at a rate similar to that of life-time migrants, with 54 and 46 percent in respectively urban and rural areas. The corresponding igures for recent immigrants from Pakistan are more balanced than for life-time immigrants: 42 against 50 percent with 8 percent Kuchi. Overall, this implies an even stronger preference to settle in urban areas than in life-time migration. The number of immigrants since October 2004 suggest an immigration ratio in the order of 0.4 percent per year. However, this strongly under-estimates immigration, as it does not take into account the effects of return migration, repeated immigration and mortality since 2004. 5 Table 3.7: Immigrants a born abroad and b living abroad in October 2004, by current residence, and by country of origin percentages Country of origin a. Population born abroad b. Population living abroad in October 2004 Current residence Current residence Urban Rural Kuchi National Urban Rural Kuchi National Current residence as percentage of country of origin Pakistan 25.5 64.1 10.4 100.0 42.5 49.5 8.0 100.0 Iran 55.6 44.3 0.1 100.0 54.3 45.7 0.0 100.0 Other countries 28.6 56.6 14.9 100.0 14.8 74.0 11.2 100.0 Total 31.9 59.8 8.3 100.0 45.9 48.6 5.5 100.0 Country of origin as percentage of current residence Pakistan 61.6 82.7 96.7 77.1 61.8 68.2 97.6 66.9 Iran 36.8 15.7 0.2 21.1 37.8 30.0 0.0 32.0 Other countries 1.6 1.7 3.1 1.8 0.4 1.8 2.4 1.2 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Data between brackets are considered unreliable Emigrants’ country of destination and urban-rural area origin For the year preceding the survey interview, the respondent households indicated that 107 thousand persons of 14 years and older left the household to live abroad. This would imply an emigration rate of 0.4 percent per year. However, this igure underestimates emigration to the extent that entire households left the country. 4 The methodological elaboration and sources of error for the estimations are given in Annex VI. 5 Calculated as the average number of annual immigrants per province since October 2004 as a percentage of the mid-period population between October 2004 and January 2012. POPULATION STRUCTURE AND CHANGE