Measuring trends in poverty 2007-2011 percent

53 Table 6.2: Mean real per capita consumption at 2011-12 prices, by poverty quintile a Quintile Survey year Annual growth 2007-08 2011-12 Poorest 984 1,019 0.9 2 1,414 1,515 1.7 3 1,818 1,971 2.0 4 2,412 2,645 2.3 Richest 4,294 4,863 3.2 Total 2,184 2,403 2.4 a The 2007-08 consumption has been inlated to 2011-12 prices using the inlation implicit in poverty lines by region-strata. Figure 6.2: Trend of Gini index, by residence and region

a, b, c

10 20 30 40 U rb a n R u ra l K u c h i E a s t S o u th w e s t N o rt h e a s t N o rt h C e n tr a l S o u th W e s t- c e n tr a l W e s t Residence Region Na tiona l 27.9 25.3 25.9 26.9 22.6 29.3 26.2 29.6 23.6 24.4 27.6 29.7 29.2 28.1 22.3 24.4 25.3 26.8 28.7 29.0 29.1 29.4 31.2 31.6 2007 -08 2011 -12

6.4 Poverty proile

Household demographic and socio-economic characteristics are important correlates of poverty. In particular, this section presents results as to how poverty correlates with household size or dependency ratio at the household level as well as the education and employment characteristics of the household head. While unveiling causality is beyond the scope of the current report, these results are important for guiding future analysis of poverty determinants. a Central: Kabul, Kapisa, Parwan, Wardak, Logar, Panjsher; South: Ghazni, Paktika, Paktya, Khost; East: Nangarhar, Kunarha, Laghman, Nooristan; Northeast: Badakhshan, Takhar, Baghlan, Kunduz; North: Samangan, Balkh, Jawzjan, Sar-e-Pul, Faryab; West: Badghis, Herat, Farah; Southwest: Nimroz, Helmand, Kandahar, Zabul, Urozgan; West-central: Ghor, Bamyan, Daykundi. b Poverty estimates for South Region exclude Khost province in both survey years; poverty estimates for Southwest Region excludes Helmand province in both survey years. c Red bars indicate that the difference over time is statistically signiicant at a 5 percent level. POVERTY INCIDENCE, TREND AND PROFILING 54

6.4.1 Demographic proile

The youngest segments of the population are over-represented amongst the poor. As shown in Figure 6.3, children below 15 represent a larger share of the poor then of the total population – a result in line with the inding that larger households and with relatively more dependents are more likely to be vulnerable to the risk of poverty. As labor endowment is often the only form of capital available to relatively poorer households, a higher child dependency ratio 5 at the household level is normally associated with higher poverty rates Table 6.3. Figure 6.3: Total population and poor population, by age in percentages 5 10 15 20 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-24 25-39 40-64 65+ 17.1 17.3 13.7 19.0 17.3 13.0 2.6 18.6 19.3 15.1 16.6 16.0 12.1 2.2 Tota l popula tion Poor popula tion Table 6.3: Poverty headcount, by child dependency ratio household level Child dependency ratio Poverty headcount Below 100 28.2 100-199 39.4 200-299 45.7 300 and more 53.6 5 The child dependency ratio is here deined as the number of children aged 0-14 over the population in the most productive ages 15-64. POVERTY INCIDENCE, TREND AND PROFILING