Figure 3.3 Male and female population, by age, and by marital status in percentages a. Male b. Female
10 20
30 40
50 60
70 80
90 100
-4 5
-9 1
-1 4
1 5
-1 9
2 -2
4 2
5 -2
9 3
-3 4
3 5
-3 9
4 -4
4 4
5 -4
9 5
-5 4
5 5
-5 9
6 -6
4 6
5 -6
9 7
-7 4
7 5
+ Married
Widowed Divorced or separated
Never married 10
20 30
40 50
60 70
80 90
100
-4 5
-9 1
-1 4
1 5
-1 9
2 -2
4 2
5 -2
9 3
-3 4
3 5
-3 9
4 -4
4 4
5 -4
9 5
-5 4
5 5
-5 9
6 -6
4 6
5 -6
9 7
-7 4
7 5
+ Married
Widowed Divorced or separated
Never married
The NRVA data also allows the observation of signiicant social change in marriage patterns. Figure 3.4 shows that women’s cohorts of 30 and above had an almost similar pattern for age at irst marriage. Around 25 percent was already
married at age 15, more than 60 percent was married by age 18, and 80 or more percent was married by age 20. Starting with the 25-29 year old cohort, the share that was married by a speciic age is dropping consistently for every age at irst
marriage. For this cohort the effect, although visible, is small; but for each successively younger age group the decrease becomes more pronounced. Of all women who at the survey time were 20 to 25 years old, 65 percent were married by
age 20 and around 17 percent by age 15. For the youngest cohort of 15-19 the percentage married by age 15 dropped to 6 percent. The mean age of marriage increased from 16.9 for women aged 35-39 to 18.0 for women aged 20-24.
Figure 3.4 Females aged 15 to 49, by current age group, and by age at irst marriage in percentages
10 20
30 40
50 60
70 80
90 100
15 16
17 18
19 20
21 22
23 24
25
P e
rc e
n ta
g e
m a
rr ie
d
Age at first marriage
15-19 20-24
25-29 30-34
35-39 40-44
45-49
14
POPULATION STRUCTURE AND CHANGE
Social change is also observed in terms of change in the age difference between spouses. Whereas on average for women of more than 40 years old the age of the husband is around 7 years higher, this age difference consistently
declines with the successive younger age cohorts: around 6 years for women aged 30-39, 4.5 years for those aged 20-29 and around 4 for women under-20. Figure 3.5 shows that the share of couples with relatively small spousal age
differences less than four years has dramatically increased for each younger ten-year age group of women from 21 percent among women aged 70 and over to 62 percent of those under 20. At the same time, the shares of couples with
large 10-19 years and very large 20 years or more age differences has similarly declined from close to 40 percent in the oldest age group to 8 percent in the youngest.
Figure 3.5 Ever-married females, by current age, and by relative age of husband in percentages
10 20
30 40
50 60
70 80
90 100
10 10-19
20-29 30-39
40-49 50-59
60-69 70+
Current age of wife
Younger 0-4 years older
5-9 years older 10-19 years older
20 or more year older
Large spousal age differences, early age at marriage for women – and consequently early widowhood – are closely related to the practice of polygyny, as a polygamous marriage market creates an unequal demand for male and female
spouses. The NRVA 2011-12 data indicate that 7.6 percent of married women over 260 thousand are in union with a husband who has more than one wife. Around two-thirds of these have one co-wife. From the male perspective, 3.1 of
all Afghan husbands have more than one wife.
3.4 Childhood mortality
NRVA 2011-12 included an abridged battery of questions that allow the estimation of childhood mortality indicators that is comparable to NRVA 2007-08 and other recent surveys in Afghanistan.
2
Table 3.5 shows the Infant Mortality Rate IMR and Under-ive Mortality Rate U5MR, estimated with the Trussel variant of the Brass method of indirect mortality estimation.
3
The U5MR is estimated at 91 deaths per thousand live births and the IMR at 48 deaths per thousand live births.
Data issues related to age reporting and recording of girls born were encountered in the analysis and consequently
these indicators should be treated with caution, in particular the IMR. For both indicators, a considerable gap
exists between urban and rural populations Table 3.5. On the other hand, little gender difference is observed,
and surprisingly the U5MR for boys is below that of girls.
2 Social change is the change in the age difference between spouses relects changes in how people relate to one another.
3 The battery also allows fertility estimation, but only using a different technique than in the previous NRVA and other surveys and, consequently, does not pro- duce comparable results.
15 Infant- and Under-ive Mortality Rate
The Infant Mortality Rate IMR is deined as number of deaths to children under twelve months of age per 1,000 live births.
The Under-ive Mortality Rate U5MR relates to the number of deaths to children under ive years of age per
1,000 live births.
POPULATION STRUCTURE AND CHANGE
Table 3.5: Childhood mortality indicators, by a residence and b sex
Indicator a. Residence
b. Sex Total
Reference period
Urban Rural
Boys Girls
IMR
a
34 54
49 46
48 Jan. 2011
U5MR 72
96 89
92 91
Sep. 2005
a
Figures between brackets are considered unreliable and are indicative only
The U5MR estimated for the NRVA 2011-12 is well in line with the downward trend that was shown by the MICS 2010
102 since the 2007-08 NRVA benchmark of 161 deaths per thousand live births and provides mutual support to the
indicator in these surveys Figure 3.6. The IMR of the NRVA 2011-12, on the other hand, seems an outlier. Therefore, the
low igure of 48 should not be taken as anything more than indicative for further decreasing infant mortality.
Figure 3.6: Childhood mortality indicators, by survey
3.5 Migration 3.5.1 General migration
The migration context of Afghanistan is particularly complex. Regular and traditional migrant lows – both internal and cross-border – have become mixed with the effects of one of the world’s largest and most protracted refugee situations,
the largest volume of returnees in recent history, large-scale internal displacement and remaining nomadism of a seizable part of the population. Although the NRVA is not designed as a migration survey, the information collected is relevant to
add to the limited stock of information on migrants and migration lows.
16
POPULATION STRUCTURE AND CHANGE
MDG Indicators 4.1 and 4.2
91
4.1 U5MR:
48
4.2 IMR:
17
Migration concepts
A seasonal migrant is a person who spends at least one month, but less than a year away from the household for seasonal work.
In this report, migration analysis distinguishes two different time dimensions. Life-time migration occurs when a person currently
lives in an area different from where heshe was born. Recent
migration is measured as migration since a speciic point in recent
time. Here this point is deined as October 2004, since many people will remember where they lived during the presidential elections at
that time. The annual immigration and in-migration ratio are calculated as,
respectively the immigrant and in-migrant population as percentage of the resident population. The emigration and out-migration rate
are calculated as the number of, respectively, emigrants and out- migrants as percentage of the resident population in the area of
departure. Migration
is deined by the act of crossing a border and going to live elsewhere for at least a year. Crossing the border of two countries
represents international migration. People who enter a country are immigrants and those who leave a country are emigrants. Crossing
administrative boundaries within a country represents internal migration. Persons moving into an area from within the country are
labeled here as in-migrants, those who move to another area within the country are labeled as out-migrants.
Internal migration can be measured at different levels. In this report two levels are distinguished: internal migration between districts
and that between provinces. Inter-provincial migration always involves migration between districts, but the opposite does not
necessarily hold true.
Emigration and out-migration are under-estimated to the extent that complete households have moved away.
The mobility of the Afghan population is shown by the inding that some 5.1 million people 18.8 percent were born outside the district where they now reside, either in another district in Afghanistan or abroad. Half of these movers
2.6 million were also born outside the province of current residence, and some 827 thousand 3.1 percent were born abroad Table 3.6, panel a.
Table 3.6: Percentage of population living outside the district of current residence a at birth and b in October 2004, by previous place of residence, sex, and by current residence
Place of current
residence a. Place of birth:
in other b. Place of residence in
October 2004: in other country
province districta
country province
district
a
Urban 4.3
17.5 35.9
6.9 7.6
15.7 Rural
2.6 2.0
8.0 2.5
0.8 2.6
National
b
3.1 6.4
15.7 3.6
2.7 6.2
a
Figures for previous residence in other district include those with previous residence in other province, i.e. these are counted twice.
b
National includes the Kuchi population.
As expected, the share of persons born elsewhere is higher in urban than in rural areas: more than one-third 35.9 percent of the urban population has moved to another place of residence within Afghanistan since birth, whereas only
8.0 percent of the rural population did so. Also in absolute terms do urban areas accommodate more life-time in-migrants from within Afghanistan: 2.2 million against 1.9 million for rural areas. Urban areas again house in relative terms more
persons born abroad than rural areas 4.3 against 2.6 percent, but in absolute numbers more life-time immigrants have moved to rural areas.
Information about the place of residence in October 2004 shows a similar pattern: the share of the population that lived elsewhere seven years before the survey is much higher in urban areas than in rural areas, and of all internal migrants
that took up residence in rural areas 2.6 percent of the total rural population less than a third 0.8 percentage points came from outside the province of current residence. In urban areas almost one in six persons 15.7 percent lived
elsewhere in Afghanistan in 2004, half of whom in another province. Urban areas also accommodate a relatively larger share of people who immigrated from abroad since 2004 6.9 percent, compared to 2.5 percent in rural areas, although
in absolute numbers more recent immigrants are living in rural areas.
The igures for life-time and recent in-migrants indicate that settling in a new, rural area is relatively uncommon, but less so for immigrants. To the extent that it concerns internal migration, it is largely short-distance moves from neighbouring
districts within the province. Possible explanations for this are the limited economic opportunities in the rural sector and the closed community structure in Afghan society, which impede integration of outsiders.
With regard to out-migrants, NRVA 2011-12 shows that in the year before the survey 303 thousand people of 14 years and over had left the household to live somewhere outside the district of residence. More than two-ifth of these remained
within the province and one-ifth 65 thousand moved to another province within Afghanistan. No less than one in three persons leaving the household 107 thousand went to live abroad.
POPULATION STRUCTURE AND CHANGE
