7
SURVEY METHODOLOGY AND OPERATIONS
2.10 Data limitations
The speciic constraints in the Afghanistan context in terms of security problems, cultural barriers and local survey capacity induced some data limitations. The following observations should be taken into account when interpreting the
results in this report: • In 150 out of 2,100 cases 7.1 percent, originally sampled clusters could not be visited, in most cases due to security
reasons. For 133 of these cases 6.3 percent of the total, clusters were replaced. As the non-visited areas may have proiles different from visited areas, the inal sample will have a slight bias in the results. This effect will have been
larger at the provincial level for provinces with relatively large numbers of replacement. • In 18 percent of the cases, sampled areas were temporarily inaccessible due to insecurity 13 percent or physical
access problems 5 percent, concentrated in winter time. Upon improvement of local conditions these areas were covered in a later round of data collection.
• Out of the 21,000 household interviews scheduled, 20,828 99.2 percent were actually implemented. This data reduction is limited and has not signiicantly affected the reliability of data.
• Analysis of the population structure by sex and age shows under-enumeration of women and girls, and young children, especially infants. Coverage of the youngest age group was much better than in 2007-08, but signiicant
numbers are still omitted. Cultural backgrounds related to the seclusion of women and high infant mortality are among likely reasons for these omissions.
• Although an improvement compared to NRVA 2007-08 can be noted, the quality of age reporting in the Afghan population remains very poor, as indicated by large age heaping on ages with digits ending on 5 and 0.
8
• Due to security problems, work by female interviewers in Zabul was very restricted. Consequently, the information on maternal and child health, and fertility and mortality information is largely missing for this province. However, the food
consumption module in the female questionnaire was collected by male interviewers interviewing male respondents.
2.11 Reporting
The source of all information presented in this report is the NRVA 2011-12, unless otherwise speciied. Presenting information from other sources than NRVA does not imply an endorsement by CSO, but should merely be interpreted as
a contextualisation of the present indings. Titles of tables presented in this report follow a standard convention to exactly deine the table contents and structure:
irst, the title states the universe of elements presented in the table, then it deines the variables presented in the column headings, then the variables presented in the row headings. In the title the universe and the column variables
are separated by a comma ‘,’; the column variables and the row variables are separated by ‘, and by’.
8 The Myers Blended Index is 20.6 and the Whipples Index is 223.
8
POPULATION STRUCTURE AND CHANGE
3 POPULATION STRUCTURE AND CHANGE
SUMMARY. The average household size in Afghanistan is 7.4 persons, of whom on average 3.6 – 48 percent –
are children under ifteen. Some 22 percent of the households accommodate 10 or more persons, accounting for 35 percent of the population. The young age composition contributes to the country’s
high dependency ratio of 104 and is an indication of a high fertility level and a large burden on the country’s economy. Demographic estimates support the picture of continuous decline in the under-
ive mortality rate, from 161per 1,000 live births in the NRVA 2007-08 to 91 in the present survey. The migration context of Afghanistan is particularly complex. With respect to internal migration,
women more often move short distances within the same province, often to marry, whereas men are
more likely to migrate further aield – often to another province – to ind work. The attraction of urban centres is relected in the 2-3 times higher rates of internal migration from rural to urban areas than vice
versa. In addition, mobility within the urban sector is signiicantly higher than within the rural sector. Immigration from other countries is largely family migration, with the age and sex composition of the
immigrants corresponding to that of the resident population of Afghanistan. Recent immigrants come almost exclusively from Pakistan 67 percent and Iran 32 percent and settle equally in urban and
rural areas. Emigration is dominated by young adult men, most of whom move to Iran 76 percent, with smaller numbers going to Pakistan 13 percent and the Gulf states 8 percent alongside other countries.
The available data suggest that the average annual immigration ratio in the seven years preceding the survey and the emigration rate in the twelve months preceding the survey are almost in balance
at 0.4 percent. However, both indicators underestimate true migration levels to an unknown degree. Marriage is almost universal in Afghanistan and is characterized by early marriage for women. However,
signiicant changes are observed in female age at irst marriage. In the age group 30 years and older, 25 percent of women were married at age 15, and at least 80 percent at age 20. For women in the age group
20-24 years the corresponding igures have decreased to, 17 and 65 percent respectively, and for the age group 15-19 years only 6 percent were married at age 15. The observed large spousal age difference is
a prime cause of high levels of female widowhood: 57 percent of women aged 65 and older are widowed. However, the age difference is rapidly decreasing: while women aged 40 years and older have a husband
who is on average 7 years older, the age gap narrows for each younger age group, to around 4 years for women aged 15-19 years.
3.1 Introduction
The last count of the population of Afghanistan was done in the 1979 Population and Housing census. CSO’s estimation of the settled population is based on a constant population growth rate of 2.03 percent since 1979, which results in an
estimate of 25.5 million for January 2012. The nomadic Kuchi population is established at 1.5 million persons.
There can be no doubt that high fertility and mortality, and large-scale international migration – including consecutive massive waves of refugees and, more recently, returnees – made a signiicant impact on the overall size and structure of
the population. In addition, geographic differentiation in fertility and mortality, as well as internal migration and movements of internally displaced persons IDPs have had major effects on the internal distribution of the population.
One of the aims of the NRVA is to examine the structure and distribution of the population and households of Afghanistan, and their underlying dynamics. Section 3.2 focuses on population structure and distribution, whereas section 3.3
addresses household characteristics and marriage patterns. Sections 3.4 and 3.5 elaborate the population processes of, respectively, childhood mortality and migration, the latter distinguishing between international, internal and seasonal
migration and displacement.
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