ALITY ESTIMA
TION
Table VI.2 Estimation of probability of dying and associated reference date, by sex a. Both sexes
Womans age
Index i
Number of women
Children ever born
CEBi Parity
Pi Children
deceased CDi
Proportion deceased
Di Multiplier
ki Age
of children x
Probability of dying before x
qx Time of
estimate ti
Reference date
Ti 15-19
1 1,460,995
218,977 0.1499
8,959 0.0409
1.1644 1
0.0476 0.9
2011.0 20-24
2 1,104,892
1,487,378 1.3462
124,592 0.0838
1.0843 2
0.0908 2.1
2009.9 25-29
3 994,606
3,151,085 3.1682
243,129 0.0772
1.0147 3
0.0783 3.9
2008.0 30-34
4 717,773
3,330,199 4.6396
297,055 0.0892
1.0165 5
0.0907 6.2
2005.8 35-39
5 638,012
3,767,540 5.9051
389,761 0.1035
1.0316 10
0.1067 8.7
2003.2 40-44
6 479,266
2,990,814 6.2404
342,509 0.1145
1.0172 15
0.1165 11.5
2000.5 45-49
7 361,014
2,258,664 6.2564
288,637 0.1278
1.0110 20
0.1292 14.4
1997.5 Total
5,756,558 17,204,657
1,694,642
b. Boys
Womans age
Index i
Number of women
Boys ever born
CEBi Parity
Pi Boys
deceased CDi
Proportion deceased
Di Multiplier
ki Age
of boys x
Probability of dying before x
qx 15-19
1 1,460,995
114,550 0.0784
4,701 0.0410
1.2014 1
0.0493
20-24 2
1,104,892 831,131
0.7522 73,807
0.0888 1.0821
2 0.0961
25-29 3
994,606 1,669,676
1.6787 120,492
0.0722 1.0045
3 0.0725
30-34 4
717,773 1,736,824
2.4197 154,463
0.0889 1.0050
5 0.0894
35-39 5
638,012 1,962,847
3.0765 198,577
0.1012 1.0191
10 0.1031
40-44 6
479,266 1,574,643
3.2855 171,955
0.1092 1.0042
15 0.1097
45-49 7
361,014 1,249,179
3.4602 148,293
0.1187 0.9984
20 0.1185
Total 5,756,558
9,138,850 872,288
c. Girls
Womans age
Index i
Number of women
Girls ever born
CEBi Parity
Pi Girls
deceased CDi
Proportion deceased
Di Multiplier
ki Age
of girls x
Probability of dying before x
qx 15-19
1 1,460,995
104,427 0.0715
4,258 0.0408
1.1201 1
0.0457
20-24 2
1,104,892 656,247
0.5939 50,785
0.0774 1.0864
2 0.0841
25-29 3
994,606 1,481,409
1.4894 122,637
0.0828 1.0262
3 0.0849
30-34 4
717,773 1,593,375
2.2199 142,592
0.0895 1.0298
5 0.0922
35-39 5
638,012 1,804,693
2.8286 191,184
0.1059 1.0460
10 0.1108
40-44 6
479,266 1,416,171
2.9549 170,554
0.1204 1.0321
15 0.1243
45-49 7
361,014 1,009,485
2.7962 140,344
0.1390 1.0254
20 0.1426
Total 5,756,558
8,065,807 822,354
173
ANNEX VII UPDATING THE POVERTY LINE USING NRVA 2011-12
ANNEX VII UPDATING THE POVERTY LINE USING NRVA 2011-12
VII.1 Methodology
The oficial poverty line for Afghanistan was set in 2007-08, using information available from the National Risk and Vulnerability Assessment NRVA survey. In particular, adhering to international best practices, the poverty line was set following the Cost
of Basic Needs CBN method and it represents the level of per capita consumption at which the members of a household can be expected to meet their “basic needs” in terms of both food a and non-food consumption.
1
The measurement of poverty based on the NRVA 2011-12 is obtained by updating the poverty line set using the NRVA 2007-08.
Updating the original poverty line, as opposed to setting a new one, has the advantage of preserving the comparability of poverty estimates over time, thereby allowing an analysis of changes in poverty. In particular, for poverty estimates
to be comparable over time between the NRVA 07-08 baseline and the newly released NRVA 11-12, the measure of welfare used to rank households i.e. consumption aggregate should be constructed following the same methodology
used for the baseline; the “updated” poverty line should be estimated to capture the same level of wellbeing identiied by original poverty line, but evaluated at the prices obtained from the current survey. Thus, while in effect updating the
poverty line entails the deinition of a new poverty line for the 2011-12 survey round, the “poverty line basket” is taken to be pre-determined.
2
VII.2 Effective sample size
The effective sample size for the poverty analysis is 19,598 households spread across 32 of the 34 provinces in Afghanistan. Two of the provinces, Helmand and Khost, were dropped from the sample used for poverty estimation due
to problems of data quality, which emerged in the measurement of the consumption aggregate and, most notably, in the measurement of food component of the aggregate.
3
VII.3 Building the consumption aggregate using NRVA 2011-12
The process of constructing the consumption aggregate matches the one used for setting the poverty line using information from NRVA 2007-08. In particular, the same consumption aggregate subcomponents were deined, namely
i food component, ii non-food component, iii consumer durables, and iv housing. In what follows, we provide a brief methodological overview on how each of these subcomponents were constructed,
highlighting comparability issues, if any, between 2007-08 and 2011-12. For a more detailed description of the methodology followed in 2007-08, the reader should refer to Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, Ministry of Economy and
the World Bank 2010.
4
VII.3.1 Food component
Like the previous round, the NRVA 2011-12 includes a very detailed food consumption section in which female respondents are asked about household consumption quantitiesunits consumed of 91 food items, organized into nine food groups,
over the past 7 days.
5
Food consumption data include food both bought, home produced, as well as food that might have been acquired by means of non-monetary transactions such as gifts and food aid. The nominal expenditure on food
consumption was obtained combining food items’ consumption with their price information coming from the District Price Survey DPS module which was administered in conjunction with the 2011-12 NRVA.
6
1 The oficial national average poverty line for Afghanistan is Afs 1,253 per person per month. This represents the typical cost of attaining 2,100 calories per
person per day and of meeting some basic non-food needs, in terms of fall 2007 prices from urban areas of central Afghanistan. The poverty line relects regional differences in the cost of living, and also accounts for inlation over the time of the survey. See Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and World Bank 2010.
2 The oficial national average poverty line for Afghanistan is Afs 1,253 per person per month. This represents the typical cost of attaining 2,100 calories per
person per day and of meeting some basic non-food needs, in terms of fall 2007 prices from urban areas of central Afghanistan. The poverty line relects regional differences in the cost of living, and also accounts for inlation over the time of the survey. See Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and World Bank 2010.
3 The same two provinces were dropped from the analysis of food security chapter 7. 4 Document accessible online at: http:cso.gov.afContentMediaDocumentsCSO-WB_Tech-Report-Pov_v421162011121045651553325325.pdf
5 Food items are organized into 9 food groups, namely: i bread and cereals; ii meat and ish; iii milk, cheese and eggs; iv oil and fat; v vegetables; vi
fruits and nuts; vii sugar and sweets; viii beverages, and ix spices. 6 The District Price Survey module covers the price of all food items in the consumption module and a few other items such as grains and fuels. DPS data
were collected during NRVA survey visits to the PSUs. Team supervisors were responsible to visit the markets of the respective districts or nahia in urban areas and to administer the survey. The identiication of the relevant market to be surveyed and its location – whether it would be in the district headquarters,
provincial capital, or in a neighboring district – were guided by key informant interviews within each community. Price information was matched to household level food consumption by location and month of interview.
