Perbandingan Metode Pemulusan (Smoothing) Eksponensial Ganda Dua Parameter Dari Holt Dan Metode Box-Jenkins Dalam Meramalkan Hasil Produksi Kernel Kelapa Sawit PT. Eka Dura Indonesia.
68
LAMPIRAN
Lampiran 1. Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (
Smoothing
) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari
Holt
) dengan
α =
0,1 dan Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan untuk α = 0,1
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
1 907020 - - - -
2 813980 - - - -
3 1050000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 4 991530 664096,6000 667387,2000 670677,8000 673968,4000 677259,0000 680549,6000 683840,2000 687130,8000 690421,4000 5 960470 610364,8740 619825,5360 629220,3860 638549,4240 647812,6500 657010,0640 666141,6660 675207,4560 684207,4340 6 1299060 562401,3719 580726,9277 598740,2018 616443,1686 633837,8025 650926,0778 667709,9688 684191,4499 700372,4955 7 1516420 560459,8062 593763,8416 626176,6300 657711,2121 688380,5496 718197,5255 747174,9435 775325,5285 802661,9263 8 1587950 590007,9991 645686,1874 699312,7165 750936,8027 800606,9946 848371,1769 894276,5746 938369,7569 980696,6407 9 1307870 633733,7927 718414,5748 798947,3128 875473,3621 948130,9453 1017055,1930 1082378,1820 1144228,9820 1202733,6860 10 1782850 651820,3690 767651,2320 875878,1301 976844,1311 1070881,4540 1158311,6950 1239446,0570 1314585,5660 1384021,2950 11 1752750 726906,5839 879766,1988 1019823,0220 1147816,0580 1264453,3380 1370412,8460 1466343,4200 1552865,6460 1630572,7260 12 1478380 801732,6116 995119,3449 1168351,2340 1322878,1500 1460072,8680 1581234,1100 1687589,5070 1780298,4670 1860454,9690 13 1341160 848405,5103 1081165,3900 1283890,4870 1459217,1070 1609608,8010 1737365,0020 1844629,3200 1933397,5280 2005525,2410 14 1194040 881616,6641 1150084,7220 1375871,9010 1563477,8830 1717046,7010 1840388,5050 1937000,2990 2010085,6810 2062573,6140 15 1385250 899918,9359 1198279,2270 1438488,2160 1627823,0670 1772878,4760 1879616,7460 1953414,9600 1999109,3640 2021037,1240 16 1366710 940365,2911 1264514,6960 1512366,7540 1695151,8100 1822866,6490 1904381,1590 1947537,6070 1959242,9300 1945554,4420 17 1526630 979176,4579 1324316,5250 1572633,7340 1740756,0060 1843194,1730 1892554,8610 1899736,0570 1874106,5040 1823670,0280 18 1450650 1035573,0430 1398176,4410 1641485,9050 1789226,7420 1861652,7350 1875947,7020 1846589,2380 1785677,6010 1703232,4530 19 1397870 1082882,7400 1458101,8360 1690129,7820 1811709,3350 1850117,3050 1827885,3960 1763443,3540 1671691,3800 1564508,2150
(2)
69
Lanjutan Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (
Smoothing
) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari
Holt
) dengan
α = 0,1
dan Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan untuk α = 0,1
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
20 1199810 1123333,3390 1505552,0550 1719863,4770 1810112,0950 1811845,0520 1753550,3960 1657743,9240 1541920,0710 1419380,9620 21 1732670 1140697,6460 1522336,4100 1711216,1990 1764456,4950 1726992,2720 1633618,4740 1510753,0620 1377951,0870 1249199,0470 22 1578730 1215531,2450 1594935,0020 1757363,2620 1775380,9960 1704194,6570 1584908,8340 1447281,4720 1312042,5150 1192833,7090 23 1685450 1271119,4710 1644555,6350 1778142,6220 1761953,0070 1662009,5700 1525305,4290 1383964,4380 1258665,7980 1161441,5720 24 1618820 1335964,1810 1700704,0920 1804735,2660 1757479,6960 1635887,0130 1491943,0390 1358755,0970 1255441,4890 1191021,4060 25 1321640 1390489,9770 1742937,0210 1816428,1880 1741244,3280 1604860,3620 1462866,5050 1347608,2330 1274946,8930 1249482,1310 26 1225120 1409156,6950 1742802,7170 1782390,1730 1680130,3250 1533057,3570 1398506,0340 1306040,2790 1266519,2040 1278872,9910 27 1553630 1414464,3730 1722676,1890 1725385,8540 1597275,3080 1443385,7850 1320526,4490 1253312,7010 1245970,3480 1290834,9960 28 1525230 1453483,9400 1734032,3900 1701780,2910 1553810,9810 1401044,5810 1297182,0350 1259731,0920 1284940,1490 1358103,3510 29 1443910 1486479,0110 1737236,9240 1672398,7750 1510709,8470 1366306,7680 1287014,9400 1281252,5670 1336396,1590 1430846,2690 30 1608970 1507616,8840 1726122,4650 1630968,7480 1461114,8330 1330790,8990 1279146,2580 1303875,9150 1383175,6750 1489358,6310 31 1845110 1544160,5020 1730282,4030 1609527,7610 1438899,5270 1329241,5710 1308359,8690 1362099,5140 1459846,7850 1569290,7800 32 1652570 1603673,2530 1759936,8990 1620912,3400 1458768,1710 1377254,5970 1390471,1270 1471925,4870 1583285,8420 1689667,4440 33 2063850 1638469,6960 1765224,6070 1612854,1910 1465148,0230 1414978,0910 1460843,1920 1564159,9790 1680669,7250 1775413,6710 34 2067270 1715168,2970 1817084,0530 1660259,7310 1535965,9690 1522500,8310 1601486,4580 1723277,3230 1840097,6420 1919672,5450 35 2127400 1788060,0560 1869103,2730 1715477,0250 1621296,2820 1646851,7560 1756354,4100 1890904,4200 2002098,5560 2063131,3030 36 1775520 1863069,0380 1927099,5050 1783543,2790 1724350,7120 1788808,0000 1924011,3030 2064336,4980 2163936,4940 2204041,3680 37 1671780 1894513,6320 1941076,5240 1809374,2100 1783958,4710 1880716,2200 2030805,0280 2165020,2140 2243329,3190 2257105,5030 38 977920 1910212,4300 1937895,9110 1818120,2200 1822744,3150 1942612,8060 2095003,8790 2210734,7420 2258684,9160 2241809,9290 39 912190 1845632,4240 1846447,8410 1731399,6240 1754472,6020 1880699,0940 2016371,8120 2096194,7860 2100657,7600 2044907,8200 40 1210930 1771602,9940 1738886,4210 1622201,7980 1652763,7560 1769978,2990 1872779,0430 1903655,4910 1856782,8980 1759178,3170 41 1292860 1729243,7770 1661396,0140 1541459,6010 1573426,4450 1672251,1680 1733708,6080 1711753,3400 1615501,2910 1482553,4160 42 1229570 1694949,6440 1592476,9280 1469526,6350 1498993,2060 1573520,1910 1590287,3010 1517911,8710 1380729,5420 1224711,5980
(3)
70
Lanjutan Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (
Smoothing
) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari
Holt
) dengan
α = 0,1
dan Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan untuk α = 0,1
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
43 1671610 1653102,1280 1516862,6120 1391259,2670 1414897,3640 1461135,8030 1433236,0860 1316941,6180 1151013,2040 986762,2174 44 1670090 1659828,4430 1496108,6760 1373433,1580 1393683,6110 1414717,5630 1350396,4270 1205099,1770 1030120,2430 878448,0756 45 1830780 1665832,7410 1480757,7590 1366137,3650 1385495,4890 1385557,7700 1294870,3490 1136838,3380 972362,15910 852061,1212 46 1901880 1688955,0820 1490011,3790 1389579,4300 1412006,5600 1397644,0670 1293120,4570 1140048,4990 1005122,3110 932466,5614 47 1661680 1719004,4390 1513687,0090 1433156,3060 1462571,4610 1440843,5310 1335181,1280 1203375,8480 1113457,0630 1099188,6670 48 1530720 1721455,6150 1513934,9370 1455211,2050 1492024,2140 1466744,8720 1368605,6630 1268431,7540 1230796,1740 1275842,7820 49 1442890 1708658,3170 1501397,7720 1464229,8780 1506983,5230 1480158,8350 1395318,6050 1332246,2460 1347299,2810 1444674,4350 50 1056470 1685700,0660 1480161,1690 1462923,4880 1509100,1600 1481584,9610 1413431,5370 1388641,3520 1451016,3340 1587679,3240 51 1131140 1620103,3400 1413932,4030 1410912,1310 1454257,9270 1422970,7250 1369673,4830 1377502,9520 1474155,9750 1629932,8840 52 1014250 1563643,6530 1356137,6650 1363175,7470 1399442,2000 1363093,3770 1323446,2260 1357699,9860 1475007,3740 1630536,7290 53 1113210 1495646,9980 1285595,6480 1298056,2290 1323011,3580 1280072,5950 1251600,9210 1304146,8180 1427224,0440 1563925,3840 54 1299600 1440521,6380 1228556,1190 1243799,2750 1255727,5450 1206906,7620 1188532,6910 1252479,3890 1368993,9230 1473306,7890 55 1358710 1408138,5980 1197280,4210 1215281,0390 1215566,0130 1164331,1730 1157074,3230 1227916,1450 1329674,3000 1394755,4420 56 1726310 1384410,5760 1178271,8840 1199828,4950 1191057,3930 1141643,0850 1146770,9320 1220875,7960 1302520,4950 1326726,1400 57 1785010 1403234,3510 1208884,9640 1238475,6500 1227169,7390 1187217,1510 1209030,2240 1286679,8760 1348745,2320 1338222,3160 58 1855830 1429863,5040 1253829,2360 1295524,1210 1287854,4610 1263993,4540 1305492,3740 1386656,6570 1431118,6760 1394649,7660 59 1487660 1465171,4070 1313401,0960 1370758,9210 1372271,7320 1369765,9530 1432410,5660 1516559,8940 1546313,6810 1494022,6920 60 1392630 1460356,4060 1333683,9480 1405160,2730 1416045,8070 1434038,9050 1513134,9050 1594632,8140 1608479,8920 1546068,6830 61 1445842,6410 1343614,4360 1426242,5820 1445002,8430 1480311,1160 1569053,5160 1641255,2450 1637658,4900 1569597,5930 62 1438101,5160 1347650,3190 1448577,9180 1476301,4590 1530724,2180 1637022,6170 1708077,9580 1688422,0780 1608470,3720 63 1430360,3920 1351686,2020 1470913,2540 1507600,0750 1581137,3190 1704991,7180 1774900,6710 1739185,6650 1647343,1500 64 1422619,2670 1355722,0850 1493248,5910 1538898,6900 1631550,4210 1772960,8200 1841723,3840 1789949,2520 1686215,9290 65 1414878,1430 1359757,9680 1515583,9270 1570197,3060 1681963,5230 1840929,9210 1908546,0970 1840712,8400 1725088,7080
(4)
71
Lanjutan Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (
Smoothing
) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari
Holt
) dengan
α = 0,1
dan Berbagai Nilai γ
Peri ode
Data Aktual
Ramalan untuk
α = 0,1
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
66 1407137,0180 1363793,8510 1537919,2630 1601495,9220 1732376,6250 1908899,0230 1975368,8090 1891476,4270 1763961,4860
67 1399395,8930 1367829,7340 1560254,5990 1632794,5380 1782789,7260 1976868,1240 2042191,5220 1942240,0150 1802834,2650
68 1391654,7690 1371865,6160 1582589,9350 1664093,1540 1833202,8280 2044837,2250 2109014,2350 1993003,6020 1841707,0440
69 1383913,6440 1375901,4990 1604925,2710 1695391,7700 1883615,9300 2112806,3270 2175836,9480 2043767,1890 1880579,8220
70 1376172,5200 1379937,3820 1627260,6080 1726690,3860 1934029,0320 2180775,4280 2242659,6610 2094530,7770 1919452,6010
71 1368431,3950 1383973,2650 1649595,9440 1757989,0020 1984442,1330 2248744,5290 2309482,3730 2145294,3640 1958325,3800
72 1360690,2700 1388009,1480 1671931,2800 1789287,6180 2034855,2350 2316713,6310 2376305,0860 2196057,9510 1997198,1590
SSE 12.948.444.76
8.444,600 10.401.331.52 6.983,900 9.617.415.787 .617,270 9.910.055.085 .341,460 10.703.798.32 4.961,300 11.536.254.82 3.980,900 12.332.628.49 0.627,800 13.161.560.38 2.838,800 14.011.321.18 2.255,800 MS E 223.249.047.7 31,803 179.333.302.1 89,378 165.817.513.5 79,608 170.863.018.7 12,784 184.548.246.9 82,092 198.900.945.2 41,049 212.631.525.7 00,479 226.923.454.8 76,531 241.574.503.1 42,341
(5)
72
Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (
Smoothing
) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari
Holt
) dengan
α = 0,2
dan
Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan untuk α = 0,2
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
1 907020 - - - -
2 813980 - - - -
3 1050000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 4 991530 700293,2000 706874,4000 713455,6000 720036,8000 726618,0000 733199,2000 739780,4000 746361,6000 752942,8000 5 960470 677906,4960 695314,1440 712458,5440 729339,6960 745957,6000 762312,2560 778403,6640 794231,8240 809796,7360 6 1299060 659436,4029 690460,1734 720329,5866 749060,4371 776668,5200 803169,6301 828579,5622 852914,1114 876189,07230 7 1516420 725170,8003 778638,9901 829068,2454 876554,9950 921194,4040 963080,3737 1002305,5420 1038961,2830 1073137,7080 8 1587950 837055,3023 922165,2837 1000772,2780 1073211,8420 1139809,6710 1200881,7240 1256734,3500 1307664,4160 1353959,4300 9 1307870 955886,7978 1077923,7070 1187672,1670 1286022,3720 1373821,9170 1451876,9970 1520953,5880 1581778,6150 1635041,1090 10 1782850 1001975,6580 1155712,2980 1288387,9480 1402002,6060 1498420,5230 1579376,3760 1646481,2750 1701228,5960 1744999,6530 11 1752750 1149460,2330 1338024,6780 1493624,2970 1620250,5850 1721538,3550 1800788,7140 1860991,0470 1904844,0060 1934775,5510 12 1478380 1273493,6890 1494443,5960 1667340,9170 1799428,9210 1897133,7850 1966133,9390 2011425,1180 2037381,2920 2047811,6700 13 1341160 1321944,1800 1564062,1860 1740102,5590 1862213,6770 1940860,7500 1985005,6460 2002272,0580 1999096,9150 1980868,8650 14 1194040 1333644,8880 1583396,9700 1746931,3190 1843313,1870 1888428,2480 1895397,5340 1874949,9220 1835755,5070 1784723,0250 15 1385250 1310789,3580 1553866,5190 1689796,8470 1746826,9400 1747619,4210 1710124,1410 1648340,8240 1572983,8990 1492059,4080 16 1366710 1332236,1460 1561739,4980 1664058,4590 1678953,7870 1636977,4180 1561162,5290 1468462,8300 1370971,1890 1276944,8220 17 1526630 1346375,0540 1556528,7000 1621918,8410 1595967,7620 1517729,0730 1414950,9360 1306607,0390 1204971,2310 1117302,8840 18 1450650 1393275,2790 1583148,1140 1614473,8170 1556015,9210 1455204,4900 1343367,1490 1239909,6210 1155620,6670 1095252,2150 19 1397870 1416746,9530 1583947,7210 1583492,3680 1500429,1750 1389533,3750 1283778,0620 1200859,3390 1148148,9100 1126387,2820 20 1199810 1424590,7540 1566588,2980 1537013,8670 1437199,0430 1327274,1450 1239241,8250 1186644,6060 1171570,8780 1189606,2240 21 1732670 1386758,1790 1498417,6270 1439986,8340 1328011,8150 1225108,3470 1159269,0160 1137503,9750 1155214,7120 1202406,0570 22 1578730 1469982,3560 1559823,1860 1486498,1970 1379606,6870 1300703,8730 1270670,8870 1288086,7140 1341094,6260 1414665,4340 23 1685450 1507948,6500 1578915,9050 1498453,1960 1406024,4500 1358194,9070 1365971,4780 1418454,9650 1497032,2160 1583216,5570 24 1618820 1563215,7130 1619795,4440 1540581,0040 1470856,7040 1458257,2440 1501893,3730 1581472,8700 1673273,1340 1757803,4750
(6)
73
Lanjutan Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (
Smoothing
) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari
Holt
) dengan
α = 0,2
dan Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan untuk α = 0,2
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
25 1321640 1595215,4480 1639134,0580 1565651,5900 1521233,5710 1541037,3890 1611336,0840 1703789,7930 1792227,3670 1859129,9840 26 1225120 1555907,7280 1582469,1860 1511631,3630 1486131,5790 1525885,7660 1604690,7230 1688706,3600 1752660,7750 1784006,9940 27 1553630 1498541,7970 1503539,3220 1431920,5000 1417865,0590 1464383,8910 1534521,9470 1592433,5230 1617296,9770 1604004,9430 28 1525230 1519452,8160 1508101,0570 1441156,3790 1439815,0380 1489809,0020 1546381,8930 1575684,7610 1564521,2220 1516637,8130 29 1443910 1530617,1750 1506755,6030 1447909,5000 1458528,2190 1508011,1900 1547651,623 1549542,0840 1510334,0230 1442610,7020 30 1608970 1521550,5190 1486901,4160 1436808,0270 1456065,3050 1499898,8220 1519954,4120 1497575,4510 1440092,4200 1367358,8870 31 1845110 1549057,5840 1508912,8100 1471268,5660 1499339,3500 1537328,0450 1541490,5130 1504609,3810 1443931,5500 1383659,4360 32 1652570 1624212,2840 1587197,8120 1568495,4840 1608848,2380 1645277,6190 1642381,7330 1605134,6120 1558419,4070 1526988,9760 33 2063850 1646395,1980 1613932,7020 1612813,4890 1661445,0900 1693858,5170 1685809,3010 1653687,7510 1626565,7870 1625749,1920 34 2067270 1754746,6260 1735573,3050 1757586,0840 1817970,9640 1851978,3830 1848172,2390 1832208,9770 1833304,3650 1865871,5110 35 2127400 1848362,2350 1846837,6560 1892669,1950 1963819,5860 2000687,4380 2005038,3210 2008618,5010 2036813,7290 2094905,0940 36 1775520 1940861,4780 1959097,6300 2026845,5320 2105610,9160 2144351,9380 2157240,5880 2178401,5300 2226141,0240 2296007,0430 37 1671780 1941178,0430 1971186,5040 2048731,0690 2122260,7080 2152024,3440 2162819,9310 2187448,5390 2235127,4960 2292824,9350 38 977920 1915295,3340 1948133,3430 2022874,4350 2078794,0840 2089389,8340 2087610,6140 2101744,5510 2131433,0740 2157743,1600 39 912190 1737069,6600 1752110,2810 1800719,8620 1817178,8590 1789363,2430 1755508,2860 1737073,9230 1725143,4450 1698537,5710 40 1210930 1564845,5280 1548549,0200 1556538,4120 1522341,5690 1448478,6460 1375482,2300 1316707,6720 1256893,1900 1176484,5380 41 1292860 1479735,9110 1431943,2500 1400204,7470 1321306,8120 1211764,1040 1111463,1170 1025353,7960 934686,8762 824790,2937 42 1229570 1424296,7000 1349481,3040 1285083,1300 1174589,2620 1046888,0600 938401,4530 846107,5648 750615,5248 644073,4457 43 1671610 1363392,7970 1266057,2960 1176997,0490 1048955,6810 920597,4183 822234,3473 743737,3204 667333,1597 592231,3472 44 1670090 1409242,0180 1303948,1970 1208612,9610 1086669,1610 983074,1634 919633,7411 880151,3000 849799,5621 833453,8258 45 1830780 1450834,3550 1348602,5900 1261290,3130 1163209,6130 1101453,1430 1087304,0070 1099569,9020 1126715,1540 1176722,3200 46 1901880 1523845,1380 1435751,2010 1369739,5760 1309985,6050 1301227,0130 1342795,3390 1409612,1970 1493036,0030 1601205,4980 47 1661680 1604034,4610 1538335,2410 1502647,4110 1488977,9500 1535331,4070 1628498,5640 1740783,5250 1865727,7220 2009133,4500
(7)
74
Lanjutan Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (
Smoothing
) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari
Holt
) dengan
α = 0,2
dan Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan untuk α = 0,2
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
48 1530720 1621298,8300 1577296,2640 1570475,6350 1597947,9900 1687209,7820 1813002,9160 1946606,0950 2083193,4610 2224894,1920 49 1442890 1607106,7490 1580410,0320 1596160,8760 1653553,7830 1766871,5030 1900540,4480 2026848,0970 2142578,2990 2246359,4300 50 1056470 1574902,7490 1559834,2450 1589946,8170 1663619,3150 1780636,7300 1898086,4200 1991721,5650 2060570,0410 2101341,1230 51 1131140 1461486,8940 1445955,0450 1475682,9600 1545815,7950 1641948,2390 1717845,2270 1755401,1200 1757023,4290 1719965,6760 52 1014250 1379081,2720 1357193,0840 1378533,2970 1433332,9160 1494850,6220 1518181,6450 1493882,2080 1428978,7900 1323810,6960 53 1113210 1282482,1500 1249087,7910 1255578,5680 1286441,9790 1305734,4660 1274600,9820 1194140,5690 1076808,4730 927787,7870 54 1299600 1221609,4080 1176960,4460 1168464,6720 1174862,6710 1154981,0950 1080161,5340 962808,9779 820688,4631 664137,4582 55 1358710 1211749,0270 1161442,1520 1143919,6740 1132856,2110 1086118,2880 988220,5918 862172,4483 729696,3014 604878,4526 56 1726310 1218621,9420 1168740,2300 1148993,0960 1129141,3460 1070109,2140 970948,5667 863000,4818 769366,7638 704982,9267 57 1785010 1307794,0340 1270401,4840 1261210,8470 1247462,9470 1196442,0340 1121294,3190 1058046,2410 1027734,0520 1042425,3790 58 1855830 1400416,0280 1384054,8270 1394152,9970 1396863,9910 1368105,0860 1332956,8020 1327597,7750 1367332,0330 1457784,5730 59 1487660 1497785,9020 1508012,5090 1542371,3380 1567266,1080 1568372,0190 1579195,5720 1631355,5130 1731334,0940 1875884,1050 60 1392630 1501845,2830 1532730,5540 1584029,3300 1623585,3120 1646880,3640 1691568,3200 1780610,3320 1909913,8870 2066849,3910 61 1483902,4830 1527894,9680 1586865,7640 1631158,2510 1665256,0030 1726587,9200 1826690,9410 1951006,2990 2079256,1300 62 1487802,7390 1551079,4920 1627982,0630 1684922,2520 1734481,7150 1821395,1830 1950367,6160 2095555,4900 2226506,7470 63 1491702,9950 1574264,0170 1669098,3630 1738686,2530 1803707,4270 1916202,4470 2074044,2910 2240104,6800 2373757,3650 64 1495603,2510 1597448,5420 1710214,6630 1792450,2540 1872933,1390 2011009,7110 2197720,9660 2384653,8700 2521007,9820 65 1499503,5070 1620633,0660 1751330,9630 1846214,2550 1942158,8510 2105816,9750 2321397,6410 2529203,0600 2668258,5990 66 1503403,7630 1643817,5910 1792447,2630 1899978,2560 2011384,5630 2200624,2380 2445074,3160 2673752,2500 2815509,2160 67 1507304,0200 1667002,1160 1833563,5630 1953742,2570 2080610,2750 2295431,5020 2568750,9910 2818301,4400 2962759,8330 68 1511204,2760 1690186,6400 1874679,8620 2007506,2580 2149835,9870 2390238,7660 2692427,6670 2962850,6300 3110010,4500 69 1515104,5320 1713371,1650 1915796,1620 2061270,2590 2219061,6990 2485046,0290 2816104,3420 3107399,8200 3257261,0670 70 1519004,7880 1736555,6890 1956912,4620 2115034,2600 2288287,4110 2579853,2930 2939781,0170 3251949,0100 3404511,6840
(8)
75
Lanjutan Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (
Smoothing
) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari
Holt
) dengan
α = 0,2
dan Berbagai Nilai γ
Perio de
Data Aktual
Ramalan untuk α
= 0,2
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
71 1522905,0440 1759740,2140 1998028,7620 2168798,2610 2357513,1230 2674660,5570 3063457,6920 3396498,2000 3551762,3020 72 1526805,3000 1782924,7390 2039145,0620 2222562,2620 2426738,8350 2769467,8210 3187134,3670 3541047,3900 3699012,9190
SSE 7.549.818.363.6
22,660
7.579.852.982.2 32,900
8.237.069.094.9 65,020
9.090.587.593.5 95,040
10.078.983.661. 120,700
11.206.553.726. 343,000
12.496.413.999. 974,300
13.948.672.289. 153,400
15.451.877.535. 801,301 MS
E
130.169.282.13 1,425
130.687.120.38 3,326
142.018.432.67 1,811
156.734.268.85 5,087
173.775.580.364 ,150
193.216.443.557 ,637
215.455.413.792 ,660
240.494.349.812 ,990
266.411.681.651 ,747
(9)
76
Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (
Smoothing
) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari
Holt
) dengan
α = 0,3
dan
Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan untuk α = 0,3
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
1 907020 - - - -
2 813980 - - - -
3 1050000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 4 991530 736489,8000 746361,6000 756233,4000 766105,2000 775977,0000 785848,8000 795720,6000 805592,4000 815464,2000 5 960470 737484,8660 761325,8240 784574,4740 807230,8160 829294,8500 850766,5760 871645,9940 891933,1040 911627,9060 6 1299060 735552,9662 774431,43140 810925,8231 845089,4493 876975,6175 906637,6355 934128,8111 959502,4518 982811,8656 7 1516420 852682,8474 916660,07060 974880,8435 1027643,9590 1075241,8120 1117960,4030 1156079,3330 1189871,8070 1219604,6340 8 1587950 1019793,8790 1117413,7140 1203595,8820 1279293,2400 1345412,8770 1402817,0670 1452324,2380 1494709,9220 1530707,7200 9 1307870 1175275,2840 1307632,4410 1419747,2790 1513945,5480 1592372,1900 1656999,6600 1709636,0820 1751933,2210 1785394,2960 10 1782850 1204066,1100 1356775,8040 1476960,3020 1569449,0980 1638544,3810 1688060,1370 1721359,4950 1741390,3570 1750719,3400 11 1752750 1384077,2040 1559234,6100 1687033,4910 1776403,6920 1835004,7580 1869358,6460 1884972,8910 1886454,6670 1877616,1480 12 1478380 1512115,1540 1703536,6970 1830969,2090 1909403,4640 1951158,8080 1966248,0450 1962705,4600 1946880,5640 1923700,0540 13 1341160 1518418,6650 1708727,7560 1817680,1830 1868469,4890 1879238,8210 1863943,3770 1833098,9130 1794427,5560 1753411,3740 14 1194040 1476347,3620 1649141,4330 1724325,0480 1735372,5670 1707017,0080 1657063,1020 1597901,1570 1537760,2370 1481735,4270 15 1385250 1394292,2290 1535988,9200 1567114,8000 1533108,8150 1465379,1870 1384766,7500 1304315,8860 1231464,2570 1169748,4980 16 1366710 1393945,3690 1505100,8260 1498062,7940 1431144,1300 1341576,3350 1251609,2890 1173165,3600 1111328,6490 1066906,0540 17 1526630 1387323,5070 1469613,7110 1432342,6380 1346474,7550 1253122,3880 1173555,1950 1116442,3660 1082963,2480 1070301,4080 18 1450650 1434843,3970 1496169,7070 1442800,3910 1356800,8220 1280206,7670 1230446,7930 1210851,6730 1217563,4880 1243862,8760 19 1397870 1445787,5190 1489233,7220 1428033,2840 1352496,9700 1301938,3170 1287113,4900 1304501,8370 1344930,4180 1398394,4270 20 1199810 1436176,8780 1463062,7100 1399147,6130 1339095,0370 1315706,1550 1330882,3490 1373830,2660 1430958,7690 1490590,9170 21 1732670 1362940,4240 1369529,8380 1301569,2580 1253581,4800 1248541,2180 1278509,5280 1326397,9100 1376284,9100 1417199,6130 22 1578730 1482624,7930 1485703,2380 1431921,4760 1411070,6120 1434003,0790 1483455,4380 1538370,4000 1583403,6310 1610860,7040 23 1685450 1523105,0070 1526424,2230 1490198,7960 1495250,1310 1539353,4210 1597884,9960 1649044,6590 1681083,0640 1691566,1780 24 1618820 1588327,5070 1596486,4600 1580581,5290 1609015,7790 1667029,1460 1725763,3880 1766177,7620 1782522,7310 1778424,6420
(10)
77
Lanjutan Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (
Smoothing
) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari
Holt
) dengan
α = 0,3
dan Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan untuk α = 0,3
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
25 1321640 1614909,0320 1626881,0380 1627301,9040 1669839,2390 1729181,7820 1776039,4520 1797236,8040 1794252,8430 1776143,3130 26 1225120 1535564,0280 1540688,7800 1543342,5950 1581477,7520 1622403,3600 1640286,7960 1629948,8040 1599882,8390 1562676,4880 27 1553630 1441753,2050 1432464,0730 1426975,0450 1447905,7810 1459109,9610 1441573,9130 1398877,1560 1344924,7550 1293153,4590 28 1525230 1477994,9320 1462529,7330 1455469,7060 1465645,3080 1457535,5870 1421197,9910 1368178,0990 1315096,3550 1273369,0050 29 1443910 1496261,1940 1478817,7120 1473174,3960 1476693,1390 1458067,6870 1417140,6070 1371149,6590 1336128,5500 1319002,3560 30 1608970 1483081,0410 1463728,8340 1458537,8820 1456096,6450 1431920,5040 1394722,9290 1364113,4220 1352322,6340 1360274,7650 31 1845110 1527149,6030 1511399,0890 1511349,2140 1509541,9010 1489692,9010 1467113,0270 1460125,9380 1474771,8610 1505831,1650 32 1652570 1638378,4080 1635632,9230 1649197,6170 1658063,7530 1654288,1430 1656667,5510 1679023,3520 1720209,4730 1770167,9310 33 2063850 1658902,3190 1665850,8310 1688233,0130 1703607,7980 1711485,0910 1730856,1590 1768934,3380 1818020,3280 1865690,2250 34 2067270 1808801,4870 1834267,3170 1872747,3190 1902101,6940 1927761,6910 1966111,0750 2017188,3170 2068871,0480 2109442,9710 35 2127400 1922510,9610 1967165,0180 2020440,3750 2061893,6180 2101107,5580 2150024,1230 2202509,2560 2245108,3000 2269709,1900 36 1775520 2026293,2630 2087846,5070 2151490,8800 2199647,7310 2244432,5300 2292729,9150 2334499,9690 2358263,3850 2361511,0630 37 1671780 1985853,6770 2048019,9600 2103824,8550 2139616,2820 2168859,1320 2193962,1840 2203943,6750 2192049,5320 2161990,7870 38 977920 1917001,7560 1966444,9790 2000452,6000 2010331,9140 2010273,8830 1999709,9800 1969677,8980 1919713,1470 1858847,6810 39 912190 1632474,9590 1641872,9930 1627906,0870 1587785,4270 1536253,1260 1471653,2400 1389264,6950 1294889,3220 1200639,0330 40 1210930 1391978,6520 1351172,6240 1282990,0810 1191212,4340 1091110,1280 981591,1392 863070,7668 745945,8077 642292,7406 41 1292860 1307821,7780 1228889,8080 1124685,4690 1005599,4480 887105,0096 769450,6635 657407,4562 562903,5536 494604,3960 42 1229570 1273042,1130 1171709,0480 1053586,9490 934720,6231 829743,6755 739745,0111 671467,1730 634542,5229 631330,5678 43 1671610 1228405,1840 1116167,1740 1000669,4590 901500,3713 830577,6902 788132,5524 779523,5685 808509,3959 869576,5348 44 1670090 1343067,4780 1243226,4310 1156623,8650 1103271,3500 1089928,3470 1113641,7720 1175113,1960 1270042,3520 1385509,7470 45 1830780 1432685,7590 1357323,7250 1311547,9010 1312073,2740 1358042,0550 1441202,9070 1555515,0640 1688670,8570 1823043,6640 46 1901880 1555568,3840 1513806,2080 1514932,6150 1568686,4270 1664839,3420 1788826,5780 1927809,0080 2064024,0040 2179613,2170 47 1661680 1673305,5690 1667958,3730 1713457,1800 1809628,8630 1936483,5420 2073842,7630 2204299,6770 2309186,6470 2375553,9350
(11)
78
Lanjutan Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (
Smoothing
) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari
Holt
) dengan
α = 0,3
dan Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan untuk α = 0,3
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
48 1530720 1683312,8320 1703428,1860 1775704,4290 1888474,7050 2013353,9500 2127104,7960 2211833,0140 2253338,9010 2247906,4750 49 1442890 1646452,1310 1678606,5640 1757940,9050 1861448,2300 1955480,1440 2017750,9560 2034784,6160 2001528,9430 1925624,9050 50 1056470 1588193,7760 1620739,4350 1690802,8560 1765953,7090 1811730,9580 1811379,2950 1760203,8680 1664839,6260 1543340,3820 51 1131140 1415535,2150 1430450,2790 1470790,2650 1498043,5000 1481891,3840 1415109,4600 1304287,2330 1167222,3940 1028360,2120 52 1014250 1308543,3650 1301690,2520 1308613,9280 1288878,9330 1220791,9740 1109007,0720 971185,6689 832631,5567 718025,6363 53 1113210 1189753,2700 1159244,8190 1133530,7380 1074441,2650 971974,0917 842612,1280 711991,0837 606939,3972 545705,0113 54 1299600 1133991,9050 1086458,9260 1038831,6390 958675,1450 848674,9601 734531,2840 644498,8465 600147,8302 607994,9208 55 1358710 1155844,1920 1104214,2660 1051928,4220 974466,8438 885921,3239 816504,0620 790742,5227 819179,2541 894248,2288 56 1726310 1194959,7670 1149645,7480 1106439,5120 1049363,2120 1000645,0800 989215,0755 1030119,2660 1119721,6300 1237763,2230 57 1785010 1348561,1770 1326327,6400 1310665,6190 1293304,2840 1300081,4470 1353069,8710 1454163,0410 1585962,5020 1720411,3480 58 1855830 1486785,6290 1495135,9060 1513924,8880 1540677,7200 1600036,1870 1703127,4520 1838081,5440 1977712,5120 2093316,6720 59 1487660 1615860,0760 1656189,3380 1708223,8370 1772903,3990 1869619,5770 1996900,2160 2131797,6730 2243931,7160 2311474,9970 60 1392630 1591915,1870 1648363,9800 1713931,3550 1790781,1670 1890583,0140 2000426,9130 2091679,0510 2138328,9470 2131304,7760 61 1540666,2080 1599033,1910 1660500,4960 1727008,4640 1802055,4670 1864983,1560 1888286,7150 1856930,2610 1777234,4310 62 1549202,7860 1626422,5960 1703460,0440 1782681,1110 1862913,8240 1911878,4730 1894609,0950 1799241,2600 1644766,5190 63 1557739,3640 1653812,0010 1746419,5920 1838353,7580 1923772,1820 1958773,7900 1900931,4740 1741552,2590 1512298,6070 64 1566275,9420 1681201,4050 1789379,1390 1894026,4060 1984630,5390 2005669,1070 1907253,8540 1683863,2570 1379830,6960 65 1574812,5200 1708590,8100 1832338,6870 1949699,0530 2045488,8970 2052564,4240 1913576,2340 1626174,2560 1247362,7840 66 1583349,0980 1735980,2150 1875298,2350 2005371,7000 2106347,2540 2099459,7410 1919898,6130 1568485,2540 1114894,8720 67 1591885,6760 1763369,6200 1918257,7830 2061044,3470 2167205,6120 2146355,0590 1926220,9930 1510796,2530 982426,9600 68 1600422,2540 1790759,0240 1961217,3300 2116716,9940 2228063,9690 2193250,3760 1932543,3720 1453107,2520 849959,0482 69 1608958,8320 1818148,4290 2004176,8780 2172389,6420 2288922,3270 2240145,6930 1938865,7520 1395418,2500 717491,1363 70 1617495,4100 1845537,8340 2047136,4260 2228062,2890 2349780,6840 2287041,0100 1945188,1310 1337729,2490 585023,2245
(12)
79
Lanjutan Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (
Smoothing
) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari
Holt
) dengan
α = 0,3
dan Berbagai Nilai γ
Perio de
Data Aktual
Ramalan untuk
α = 0,3
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
71 1626031,9870 1872927,2390 2090095,9730 2283734,9360 2410639,0420 2333936,3270 1951510,5110 1280040,2480 452555,3126 72 1634568,5650 1900316,6430 2133055,5210 2339407,5830 2471497,3990 2380831,6440 1957832,8900 1222351,2460 320087,4008
SSE 6.179.910.679.6
68,990
6.647.674.855.5 49,550
7.394.945.502.5 46,880
8.240.736.181.7 89,260
9.100.225.985.2 62,480
9.845.914.002.7 66,750
10.311.672.028. 640,700
10.376.469.493. 592,400
10.041.010.098. 914,000
MSE 106.550.184.13
2,224
114.615.083.71 6,371
127.499.060.38 8,739
142.081.658.30 6,711
156.900.448.02 1.767
169.757.137.97 8,737
177.787.448.769 ,667
178.904.646.441 ,248
173.120.863.774 ,379
(13)
80
Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (
Smoothing
) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari
Holt
) dengan
α = 0,4
dan
Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan untuk α = 0,4
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
1 907020 - - - -
2 813980 - - - -
3 1050000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 4 991530 772686,4000 785848,8000 799011,2000 812173,6000 825336,0000 838498,4000 851660,8000 864823,2000 877985,6000 5 960470 789099,9840 817860,5760 845568,1760 872222,7840 897824,4000 922373,0240 945868,6560 968311,2960 989700,9440 6 1299060 793378,9350 836052,3955 874866,5805 909947,8490 941422,5600 969417,07260 994057,7459 1015470,9390 1033783,0110 7 1516420 951609,5483 1019444,0960 1078784,8340 1130276,8320 1174544,9440 1212193,8040 1243807,8310 1269951,2240 1291167,9670 8 1587950 1156084,3340 1256181,1880 1340596,0050 1411201,1290 1469737,3860 1517818,1300 1556933,2890 1588453,4040 1613633,6720 9 1307870 1324655,8320 1453376,9480 1555977,1880 1636647,5260 1699107,3730 1746636,3750 1782105,2430 1808005,6220 1826478,9740 10 1782850 1313095,2980 1448021,8490 1543401,0350 1607278,9610 1646449,8910 1666591,3910 1672390,5480 1667661,5540 1655454,9240 11 1752750 1514941,1660 1661587,0410 1754581,2190 1807741,1870 1832127,4240 1836458,4670 1827482,3770 1810307,4160 1788694,7220 12 1478380 1633521,0390 1784979,1930 1869029,5830 1907179,9340 1915618,4590 1906248,6810 1887572,4090 1865436,5600 1843658,5000 13 1341160 1588715,3220 1724738,5490 1781072,6510 1788487,1920 1768517,3880 1735686,3260 1699304,5540 1664907,9470 1635388,5070 14 1194040 1497041,6790 1603019,8790 1620620,9740 1590811,1960 1539897,2680 1483774,5940 1431175,3650 1386103,4360 1349616,2490 15 1385250 1371069,4260 1438422,2860 1414312,2510 1349874,2070 1274705,7420 1204243,2530 1145051,9500 1098512,4300 1063297,4440 16 1366710 1372537,2970 1411893,9480 1363523,5470 1287456,1410 1214183,6780 1156450,0670 1117117,3550 1094197,8490 1083893,0820 17 1526630 1365768,9280 1384946,2290 1326016,6990 1255269,9180 1200959,7040 1170820,5400 1162826,5380 1171396,9880 1190648,5550 18 1450650 1432110,3490 1444080,2990 1391554,1860 1343343,7980 1322127,3790 1328805,0940 1356085,0180 1395359,0360 1439623,1590 19 1397870 1442264,7880 1449694,3170 1407576,1760 1382965,1180 1390140,5080 1422446,6040 1468126,3000 1517037,3730 1562585,5840 20 1199810 1425469,6600 1427804,7830 1394912,6290 1388010,6910 1411382,2840 1451621,1250 1494567,3060 1530798,8160 1555953,4290 21 1732670 1327142,1960 1317207,4800 1284678,1850 1281701,9250 1302588,8930 1329467,1670 1348675,8630 1353915,2600 1344538,5020 22 1578730 1497510,8310 1497230,0990 1485440,5370 1503215,5570 1536473,0790 1566087,4730 1581803,3560 1582130,6440 1570560,8850 23 1685450 1541404,7780 1550187,6630 1555516,6830 1586630,0470 1623678,9750 1649517,8630 1659243,3120 1656395,6680 1647539,1960 24 1618820 1616190,9550 1635471,1880 1655842,3690 1695177,9330 1731044,7180 1750887,8090 1755733,1580 1752940,0690 1750062,0720
(14)
81
Lanjutan Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (
Smoothing
) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari
Holt
) dengan
α = 0,4
dan Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan untuk α = 0,4
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
25 1321640 1634515,8230 1658657,2090 1684943,0960 1721437,3960 1746367,2200 1753361,5030 1748639,3820 1741296,2870 1737676,6520 26 1225120 1514123,7110 1526735,4440 1539935,1610 1554353,4900 1551743,2770 1532360,5590 1505951,2890 1481148,0060 1461600,2050 27 1553630 1391720,2960 1384845,1500 1376544,5810 1362817,7880 1331036,2560 1287414,2580 1243097,6720 1204522,0760 1172213,4630 28 1525230 1456158,6340 1444617,7610 1431164,4830 1409830,3210 1374534,7920 1335742,2560 1303738,5540 1281665,0530 1267295,3710 29 1443910 1486224,4920 1475570,3070 1463864,2860 1445141,7890 1419412,9550 1398856,1130 1390780,6880 1394531,6230 1405840,9820 30 1608970 1470043,4270 1459081,0100 1448561,6540 1433603,5840 1418711,2620 1415009,3600 1425354,1760 1445524,6450 1470145,1950 31 1845110 1531915,8510 1527202,5510 1524653,0760 1520763,2870 1522365,9940 1537275,8620 1563534,6990 1594446,9720 1624728,6530 32 1652570 1676023,0710 1687964,0720 1703218,7600 1719410,5830 1743563,6340 1778971,9560 1819740,0970 1858468,5370 1891272,0120 33 2063850 1684533,2810 1704573,4580 1727264,3190 1750888,4680 1781067,4910 1816637,1430 1849639,7090 1873977,9440 1888249,3040 34 2067270 1869324,0750 1907793,2130 1946593,9370 1984361,0430 2024638,3080 2063079,3410 2092070,3580 2108554,6460 2114163,9290 35 2127400 1989484,3890 2043851,2100 2094040,8350 2139078,0220 2180675,1360 2213318,4180 2231952,6470 2237457,5810 2234198,8900 36 1775520 2091149,2010 2156221,9100 2210564,0730 2254091,7260 2287694,2050 2306893,4440 2310659,2790 2303632,9160 2291824,2660 37 1671780 1998770,9210 2052436,1780 2087520,7280 2105776,4720 2108718,8060 2094756,8330 2067292,2600 2033589,9830 1999777,9560 38 977920 1888768,3160 1918216,2450 1922309,8330 1905851,8840 1872449,8050 1824464,4260 1769032,6160 1714289,0290 1664974,9060 39 912190 1508788,8200 1484916,5850 1432312,5160 1359884,0300 1274238,4440 1181574,3200 1091021,2970 1009526,3680 939209,3096 40 1210930 1230645,1700 1152826,6620 1049607,4240 934380,2725 816609,9382 704896,0195 607849,7426 529229,1329 467731,0004 41 1292860 1182466,3730 1077716,9760 958839,0781 842821,9746 740392,8471 659833,1945 606305,2819 578691,0695 571891,6548 42 1229570 1190746,8400 1082634,6060 977232,5811 892665,0799 837928,0231 817493,9328 830385,9266 869674,2893 926708,6517 43 1671610 1171952,0460 1072024,0150 993233,1731 951159,7303 949461,5240 985672,6319 1051289,8540 1134114,8490 1223312,9350 44 1670090 1357477,4880 1290440,5400 1261054,7480 1278344,5640 1337627,3200 1428020,8200 1534337,8510 1641593,6330 1739478,4490 45 1830780 1480689,2540 1451254,4110 1470223,9230 1536726,7340 1636411,3330 1750918,3360 1861569,2510 1954591,7410 2023589,9150 46 1901880 1632895,9430 1642380,7810 1703268,1570 1803080,5580 1918831,4750 2028099,6450 2113563,1010 2167046,8480 2188921,2260 47 1661680 1763419,3190 1806256,5410 1895368,1190 2007140,7640 2113333,2650 2192555,7150 2233928,1420 2238106,5220 2213225,1710
(15)
82
Lanjutan Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (
Smoothing
) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari
Holt
) dengan
α = 0,4
dan Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan untuk α = 0,4
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
48 1530720 1741583,7720 1796935,8730 1886505,5210 1978223,1650 2043623,6860 2067739,1860 2049837,6880 2000205,8390 1933171,2760 49 1442890 1667663,8930 1717662,2030 1786109,7010 1836888,0990 1846833,2010 1811580,6640 1741646,4620 1654845,9600 1567872,4800 50 1056470 1579189,0090 1612984,2240 1649553,8440 1653915,3640 1612838,2700 1534267,7910 1437947,9170 1344672,1260 1268567,5100 51 1131140 1350627,3190 1351088,2990 1341882,2690 1293972,4640 1206599,6580 1098640,5980 994346,9737 911775,1453 858061,4238 52 1014250 1234578,8120 1206222,880 1161858,2510 1081821,5300 977632,5585 874932,1382 796356,4549 752101,7102 739934,0598 53 1113210 1109380,5560 1057189,7990 989374,8507 896963,5253 800819,7874 727387,3493 691816,3362 693429,1019 721055,3798 54 1299600 1073998,7790 1011835,5660 940329,0283 860232,1581 796794,1672 771041,9121 786666,4909 832139,4243 890487,8351 55 1358710 1136349,7620 1082200,1810 1028570,0510 983048,1925 969495,9617 998644,5909 1061753,9660 1139509,0020 1213983,6880 56 1726310 1206298,7620 1170183,7350 1144775,4590 1140487,7020 1174603,8460 1245265,8960 1333598,1410 1417719,0680 1483826,6720 57 1785010 1416108,6110 1414503,9690 1431322,8490 1475722,9760 1555049,8070 1655729,2650 1753703,9660 1830434,2060 1880066,4600 58 1855830 1580230,5760 1614216,5920 1669173,7410 1749830,0640 1852789,4230 1956514,6620 2038013,1510 2087007,5430 2107070,0080 59 1487660 1718055,7320 1781701,2380 1862611,0270 1959582,3060 2060369,3070 2141149,5820 2185915,3790 2195302,7310 2181153,7330 60 1392630 1644266,9960 1711400,7270 1786411,2750 1862658,0830 1923107,3770 1947825,0340 1931877,2100 1886566,1700 1828678,2250 61 1551916,2750 1605706,7620 1655425,6710 1691287,0560 1696642,7430 1660571,4970 1590453,0900 1505252,6590 1422203,5600 62 1560220,3520 1627521,0880 1681952,5780 1707927,2610 1682369,0600 1595395,9740 1464727,8540 1321513,6160 1190148,1800 63 1568524,4290 1649335,4140 1708479,4840 1724567,4670 1668095,3770 1530220,4500 1339002,6180 1137774,5730 958092,8060 64 1576828,5070 1671149,7400 1735006,3900 1741207,6730 1653821,6940 1465044,9270 1213277,3810 954035,5305 726037,4300 65 1585132,5840 1692964,0660 1761533,2960 1757847,8790 1639548,0110 1399869,4040 1087552,1450 770296,4876 493982,0540 66 1593436,6610 1714778,3910 1788060,2030 1774488,0850 1625274,3280 1334693,8800 961826,9088 586557,4447 261926,6780 67 1601740,7380 1736592,7170 1814587,1090 1791128,2900 1611000,6450 1269518,3570 836101,6726 402818,4018 29871,3017 68 1610044,8160 1758407,0430 1841114,0150 1807768,4960 1596726,9620 1204342,8340 710376,4363 219079,3589 -202184,0700 69 1618348,8930 1780221,3690 1867640,9210 1824408,7020 1582453,2780 1139167,3110 584651,2001 35340,3160 -434239,4500 70 1626652,9700 1802035,6950 1894167,8270 1841048,9080 1568179,5950 1073991,7870 458925,9639 -148398,7270 -666294,8300
(16)
83
Lanjutan Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (
Smoothing
) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari
Holt
) dengan
α = 0,4
dan Berbagai Nilai γ
Perio de
Data Aktual
Ramalan untuk
α = 0,4
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
71 1634957,0470 1823850,0210 1920694,7340 1857689,1140 1553905,9120 1008816,2640 333200,7276 -332137,7700 -898350,2000 72 1643261,1250 1845664,3470 1947221,640 1874329,3200 1539632,2290 943640,7406 207475,4914 -515876,8130 -1130405,600
SSE 5.329.817.556.4
36,770
5.802.538.904.3 96,780
6.367.095.150.2 42,700
6.857.305.044.1 30,250
7.153.294.467.3 51,660
7.180.174.240.2 53,880
6.956.426.967.5 97,140
6.579.609.783.1 15,810
6.163.064.406.4 43,180
MSE 91.893.406.145,
462
100.043.774.21 3,738
109.777.502.59 0,391
118.229.397.31 2,590
123.332.663.23 0,201
123.796.107.59 0,584
119.938.395.99 3,054
113.441.547.98 4,755
106.259.731.14 5,572
(17)
84
Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (
Smoothing
) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari
Holt
) dengan
α = 0,5
dan
Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan untuk α = 0,5
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
1 907020 - - - -
2 813980 - - - -
3 1050000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 4 991530 808883,0000 825336,0000 841789,0000 858242,0000 874695,0000 891148,0000 907601,0000 924054,0000 940507,0000 5 960470 832751,8500 864918,4000 895439,6500 924315,6000 951546,2500 977131,6000 1001071,6500 1023366,4000 1044015,8500 6 1299060 835542,1825 878734,7600 916489,5275 949053,2800 976672,8125 999594,9200 1018066,3980 1032334,0400 1042644,6430 7 1516420 1029408,2400 1096970,4640 1153695,0370 1200718,4640 1239127,8910 1269961,1040 1294206,5320 1312803,2440 1326640,9500 8 1587950 1259371,8560 1356713,2700 1435386,5360 1498371,3630 1548358,4570 1587761,8650 1618731,3130 1643164,5480 1662719,6760 9 1307870 1426547,5720 1545473,3450 1634881,8060 1700878,5400 1748636,6260 1782483,6860 1805985,2440 1822024,3810 1832877,6850 10 1782850 1364161,5510 1476053,0490 1545537,6690 1583490,4210 1598544,0540 1597420,4910 1585231,8740 1565752,5450 1541663,2310 11 1752750 1591392,9630 1709512,5960 1773952,4510 1802158,2770 1807064,2540 1798007,7460 1781511,5330 1761945,6090 1742080,0500 12 1478380 1698026,5210 1815516,1090 1869929,4740 1886560,5490 1882695,7910 1869674,0500 1854534,8260 1841313,8970 1832039,9370 13 1341160 1603175,9740 1697619,2550 1722000,5640 1709940,5760 1682247,6120 1650933,9870 1622207,2830 1598639,4830 1580687,9090 14 1194040 1474039,9010 1534414,9030 1522300,0250 1479264,4740 1428141,6190 1380021,7590 1339066,9630 1305700,4820 1278614,3360 15 1385250 1321911,8700 1345215,2360 1299650,7520 1233321,5280 1169003,2180 1115211,1180 1073177,3660 1041006,7890 1015959,0980 16 1366710 1344619,7610 1350223,8790 1296771,0020 1236340,7500 1189100,7130 1159422,4620 1145062,9890 1141962,2270 1146417,3850 17 1526630 1347808,2190 1345106,8130 1296551,9770 1254654,2100 1234281,7820 1234444,3950 1249312,2550 1273069,0550 1301508,2050 18 1450650 1438303,5360 1440660,5990 1410914,1680 1398166,0990 1409919,3710 1439571,0430 1478458,0980 1520006,8470 1560318,4230 19 1397870 1446178,5180 1451446,4310 1436065,6380 1442428,8230 1469930,8230 1507468,0540 1545308,1860 1577743,0040 1602382,7420 20 1199810 1421310,5830 1425091,7050 1416522,0280 1429258,4210 1455531,3430 1482147,1440 1500739,8640 1508271,8810 1504994,1670 21 1732670 1298771,5870 1290356,1710 1275213,4180 1277753,5350 1285371,2670 1285755,5450 1274100,2510 1251121,5670 1219937,0050 22 1578730 1525627,0090 1533649,7870 1539607,6010 1559414,3860 1578545,9130 1588064,0820 1587709,8570 1581595,7830 1574568,2710 23 1685450 1564739,8700 1582834,6160 1600703,0520 1627137,9340 1648209,2570 1659448,1260 1664401,7100 1668716,5780 1676786,6830 24 1618820 1643691,8070 1671048,5690 1697322,8200 1726022,1210 1745711,1150 1756300,7100 1763474,5380 1772330,3440 1785154,3810
(18)
85
Lanjutan Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (
Smoothing
) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari
Holt
) dengan
α = 0,5
dan Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan untuk α = 0,5
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
25 1321640 1648609,1850 1676617,6890 1700542,2810 1720708,7900 1729424,2650 1730167,7890 1729066,8640 1729418,0900 1731172,7590 26 1225120 1486129,4150 1495314,4800 1496726,6690 1489648,3670 1470744,7740 1445952,9920 1420673,6240 1396260,7260 1371302,2060 27 1553630 1343579,0590 1329383,4270 1305817,8630 1272952,4820 1231738,8350 1189335,6960 1149773,2360 1112965,7540 1077324,9370 28 1525230 1447061,4280 1433097,5580 1411790,2800 1384995,0430 1356963,6570 1334570,3390 1319927,9090 1311838,9670 1308928,5810 29 1443910 1488511,0410 1479967,8680 1467592,4470 1454863,3150 1447442,6530 1450185,5590 1462660,9780 1482431,9860 1507866,0410 30 1608970 1466345,7960 1459137,2360 1451281,1630 1446946,7880 1451138,9880 1465450,5010 1486804,6700 1511659,7010 1537894,5530 31 1845110 1544924,3830 1546235,1960 1549308,8470 1557923,1670 1574974,9090 1598668,8220 1624164,3810 1647727,6780 1667422,7600 32 1652570 1717292,9580 1737741,6570 1760762,8620 1788918,7230 1822496,6420 1857280,3360 1888245,2040 1912784,5960 1930216,1210 33 2063850 1703971,0970 1728707,7220 1753990,9400 1780876,7560 1807505,8480 1828902,9920 1841529,2940 1844957,2160 1840402,0480 34 2067270 1920944,1120 1963344,9820 2002723,8380 2039090,4220 2069736,4890 2090838,4220 2101623,5860 2104240,6400 2101686,5890 35 2127400 2038456,9140 2092766,1140 2138482,2110 2175543,1700 2201945,1870 2216445,6110 2221356,9770 2220804,0960 2218551,3950 36 1775520 2131725,4690 2191005,0680 2234764,0660 2264205,9100 2279478,2400 2282600,5220 2278403,7300 2271789,1850 2266030,6700 37 1671780 1984609,4730 2022636,0390 2038078,3840 2034860,0980 2016315,2060 1987613,8210 1954977,8020 1922834,0560 1893100,5060 38 977920 1843540,0020 1851495,9200 1832920,7850 1795701,1730 1746729,8880 1693500,3240 1642275,6070 1596064,8690 1555171,1960 39 912190 1382794,2660 1331638,2690 1255161,8680 1165635,4750 1072804,7560 984839,4784 906470,0468 838492,3278 779513,5032 40 1210930 1096026,1850 996899,6162 881971,6291 767048,5316 662823,5018 575849,2121 507704,2505 456320,1261 418524,0801 41 1292860 1107757,3350 1000303,3280 894090,2654 805901,3534 744229,4991 711248,3153 703820,3647 716447,9748 743982,0326 42 1229570 1163843,0430 1072225,8520 1000930,0440 963684,4936 963055,1229 994396,3723 1049007,2940 1118041,7090 1194671,0940 43 1671610 1163527,2450 1092276,5280 1057000,9260 1064108,1650 1107451,6540 1174877,4890 1253152,7060 1331804,8930 1404075,1330 44 1670090 1409793,4840 1381255,2130 1398247,7290 1456840,3680 1541709,5060 1635157,8010 1722705,4650 1795628,5270 1850187,8420 45 1830780 1545181,4290 1553868,0350 1608887,4710 1695096,3960 1790173,5560 1875017,6160 1938306,4310 1976564,9340 1991440,1680 46 1901880 1707500,3300 1748210,6420 1827836,2210 1921706,1300 2004902,1910 2062021,2390 2088817,6640 2089064,1630 2070114,2550 47 1661680 1833928,7640 1896298,8810 1983967,1630 2066595,7720 2122060,9620 2143030,6790 2134195,0980 2105990,1130 2069295,8840
(19)
86
Lanjutan Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (
Smoothing
) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari
Holt
) dengan
α = 0,5
dan Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan untuk α = 0,5
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
48 1530720 1768430,5430 1826781,1130 1893589,5600 1937957,4380 1945445,1060 1919030,1950 1871403,5300 1816629,0420 1765359,5510 49 1442890 1658315,9050 1696936,1170 1728490,3240 1726710,7840 1687975,9020 1625056,8950 1555288,5110 1492104,8900 1442323,5860 50 1056470 1548572,2910 1562694,0080 1559185,6570 1520408,3000 1454054,8240 1379505,1760 1313976,5230 1266241,8580 1237145,4900 51 1131140 1275885,3700 1251740,5520 1205915,9760 1131259,3980 1044488,0790 966608,7639 909983,2454 876191,5987 860042,4716 52 1014250 1169639,6400 1121538,7690 1055399,7380 973996,0673 898702,6872 846854,9287 822726,4709 820480,8296 830819,8501 53 1113210 1050302,2940 987264,0009 915524,1590 844970,1886 796251,8192 778751,5325 787686,3189 811688,1132 840307,1068 54 1299600 1043259,0060 982201,2166 924719,2455 883585,2115 873745,9304 894517,3746 933579,5312 977380,5097 1017337,0370 55 1358710 1145749,4110 1104604,7030 1078743,9020 1079290,6810 1112151,5030 1167120,0830 1227828,3010 1282309,5040 1326065,3360 56 1726310 1237197,6440 1220771,9760 1227306,1450 1262582,2790 1322548,9140 1390453,4130 1450316,2810 1494889,2000 1524674,5840 57 1785010 1491177,3780 1513209,4140 1560237,8450 1630773,6230 1712487,8910 1786677,0540 1841958,0730 1877547,3680 1898515,1450 58 1855830 1662208,8760 1715958,1920 1789769,5180 1875066,5700 1954937,9070 2013638,7580 2047197,1430 2061211,5050 2063708,1110 59 1487660 1792815,6810 1866729,7620 1949854,4270 2028775,7290 2086795,9380 2115186,9830 2118248,1780 2106300,9710 2088169,4430 60 1392630 1658776,3000 1720123,5710 1776482,7170 1813322,1630 1818855,9690 1793618,0000 1748982,8330 1697304,3160 1646085,8600 61 1530934,2940 1566556,1180 1584703,9550 1573941,9480 1530814,4920 1465022,1090 1392111,6690 1323421,2620 1263473,9320 62 1536165,4380 1576735,4510 1584851,5510 1544907,8140 1455886,0000 1336920,2180 1213416,9220 1101875,3660 1007589,9330 63 1541396,5820 1586914,7830 1584999,1470 1515873,6800 1380957,5080 1208818,3270 1034722,1750 880329,4701 751705,9346 64 1546627,7260 1597094,1160 1585146,7430 1486839,5460 1306029,0160 1080716,4360 856027,4272 658783,5742 495821,9361 65 1551858,8700 1607273,4490 1585294,3400 1457805,4120 1231100,5240 952614,5444 677332,6798 437237,6782 239937,9375 66 1557090,0140 1617452,7810 1585441,9360 1428771,2780 1156172,0310 824512,6533 498637,9325 215691,7822 -15946,0610 67 1562321,1580 1627632,1140 1585589,5320 1399737,1430 1081243,5390 696410,7622 319943,1851 -5854,1137 -271830,0600 68 1567552,3020 1637811,4470 1585737,1280 1370703,0090 1006315,0470 568308,8710 141248,4377 -227400,0100 -527714,0580 69 1572783,4460 1647990,7790 1585884,7250 1341668,8750 931386,5547 440206,9799 -37446,3096 -448945,9060 -783598,0570 70 1578014,5910 1658170,1120 1586032,3210 1312634,7410 856458,0626 312105,0887 -216141,0570 -670491,8020 -1039482,060
(20)
87
Lanjutan Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (
Smoothing
) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari
Holt
) dengan
α = 0,5
dan Berbagai Nilai γ
Perio de
Data Aktual
Ramalan untuk
α = 0,5
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
71 1583245,7350 1668349,4450 1586179,9170 1283600,6070 781529,5704 184003,1976 -394835,8040 -892037,6980 -1295366,050 72 1588476,8790 1678528,7770 1586327,5130 1254566,4730 706601,0782 55901,3065 -573530,5520 -1113583,590 -1551250,050
SSE 4.678.125.387.7
38,430
5.043.045.865.2 19,260
5.381.369.774.3 78,750
5.571.238.574.9 14,160
5.573.690.075.6 44,410
5.425.345.643.6 72,440
5.207.129.293.8 92,580
4.993.820.668.6 44,380
4.828.663.520.8 29,840
MSE 80.657.334.271,
352
86.949.066.641, 711
92.782.237.489, 289
96.055.837.498, 520
96.098.104.752, 489
93.540.442.132, 283
89.778.091.274, 010
86.100.356.355, 937
83.252.819.324, 652
(21)
88
Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (
Smoothing
) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari
Holt
) dengan
α = 0,6
dan
Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan untuk α = 0,6
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
1 907020 - - - -
2 813980 - - - -
3 1050000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 4 991530 845079,6000 864823,2000 884566,8000 904310,4000 924054,0000 943797,6000 963541,2000 983284,8000 1003028,4000 5 960470 868440,4640 902499,2960 934188,8960 963509,2640 990460,4000 1015042,3040 1037254,9760 1057098,4160 1074572,6240 6 1299060 864670,5818 905890,2189 940132,3331 967823,3862 989389,8400 1005258,1560 1015854,7960 1021606,2230 1022938,8970 7 1516420 1092379,9940 1157580,9620 1210270,6880 1252199,8220 1285016,6640 1310267,1610 1329394,9100 1343741,1590 1354544,8020 8 1587950 1339322,1590 1431733,9440 1503848,9060 1559779,2400 1603104,3940 1636901,7850 1663777,4930 1685896,9770 1705015,7710 9 1307870 1495934,6960 1603059,0630 1679336,3900 1732489,9890 1768711,1680 1792850,9920 1808600,9790 1818662,7550 1824906,6420 10 1782850 1379247,8290 1468118,4230 1514619,4340 1531617,4910 1528653,5270 1512589,5180 1488175,3620 1458540,5440 1425615,2040 11 1752750 1641777,2120 1736897,9570 1782002,1530 1796552,2940 1793877,4130 1782766,7020 1768756,4630 1755148,1980 1743793,4190 12 1478380 1735387,3330 1828252,0150 1865629,8530 1873953,6650 1869568,7430 1861971,5630 1856206,1890 1854580,1250 1857841,2580 13 1341160 1592788,9410 1658186,9970 1664753,9600 1645354,5340 1617866,6520 1590938,5440 1567877,0800 1549154,8360 1533929,3150 14 1194040 1438319,8480 1469785,7500 1443824,6900 1398576,1930 1351841,8200 1310273,0610 1274992,2630 1244815,1990 1217937,1070 15 1385250 1273603,4200 1273063,7610 1222219,7370 1162504,1700 1109819,3410 1067890,9660 1035566,3850 1010435,2490 990363,7864 16 1366710 1329141,6430 1322563,3140 1277649,2040 1236260,3600 1210365,5470 1199913,3800 1201389,1530 1211320,3490 1227299,0130 17 1526630 1342487,0340 1336536,7380 1304727,9340 1285946,7500 1286363,3660 1301645,1290 1326029,0150 1355137,4220 1386231,0370 18 1450650 1454825,7680 1460889,2990 1451453,7980 1459537,2860 1484794,4830 1519284,3820 1556089,3740 1590932,6880 1621571,2860 19 1397870 1453922,7160 1463813,6070 1464411,4600 1481252,5520 1508335,5850 1536043,7060 1558240,9800 1572327,1050 1577821,8920 20 1199810 1418530,3320 1425402,0980 1425949,0620 1438258,8450 1452944,3510 1461336,9010 1460077,8110 1449477,4610 1431480,1120 21 1732670 1272414,1590 1264130,4420 1251023,0710 1244997,6400 1236011,5510 1218468,4950 1192664,0630 1161661,2220 1129005,5400 22 1578730 1561299,0400 1575562,5270 1587465,1220 1604450,5240 1617951,9660 1626149,6740 1632217,0570 1640334,9400 1653710,5190 23 1685450 1585534,8500 1608151,4580 1628105,6210 1649694,7520 1666597,5420 1679787,0630 1693209,6910 1709870,0560 1730739,0310 24 1618820 1665256,0830 1694494,8550 1718715,8080 1740405,7030 1755743,5100 1767312,6760 1778379,6740 1789994,4750 1801126,3590
(22)
89
Lanjutan Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (
Smoothing
) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari
Holt
) dengan
α = 0,6
dan Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan untuk α = 0,6
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
25 1321640 1654380,4110 1679973,2310 1697000,6380 1707531,5140 1710346,8440 1708887,5580 1705454,6040 1699902,4950 1690857,8560 26 1225120 1451757,7180 1452856,5940 1442441,6550 1423459,8760 1397268,1250 1367800,3900 1336774,4430 1303991,7050 1269064,8130 27 1553630 1299198,3770 1276769,5480 1243588,1640 1204317,6500 1162480,1990 1122088,5820 1084495,5120 1049856,9710 1018705,3970 28 1525230 1450546,5380 1436663,9840 1416960,2980 1397601,7240 1383015,9690 1376264,7700 1377726,4250 1387120,1310 1404526,9160 29 1443910 1498526,8110 1494209,6800 1488757,6980 1488506,1390 1496854,4870 1514522,7270 1539930,2910 1571278,1320 1606995,1890 30 1608970 1465649,9110 1462399,9970 1460612,0720 1465372,8320 1477714,5480 1495613,3290 1515691,3160 1535012,6290 1551124,4960 31 1845110 1560134,3560 1566300,5240 1575094,2490 1589618,8300 1608471,2080 1627893,9710 1644208,7730 1655041,9660 1659048,7910 32 1652570 1756710,6730 1783001,8720 1811173,9550 1842319,1100 1873449,5090 1900687,9980 1921678,2710 1935970,3570 1944375,5620 33 2063850 1713568,7590 1738506,5870 1761533,1250 1782335,4350 1797652,9770 1804959,1300 1804116,5970 1796785,5420 1785407,2670 34 2067270 1964096,8680 2006517,6820 2042861,8310 2072673,4610 2093961,4710 2106636,2960 2112947,9560 2116070,5560 2118947,0250 35 2127400 2072550,5000 2123064,3980 2161838,7840 2189563,8410 2206529,4270 2215187,2960 2219347,7580 2222412,2950 2226509,3350 36 1775520 2155300,9220 2206281,3570 2239308,5840 2257478,6710 2263895,7820 2263082,2690 2259367,6210 2255421,0890 2252093,2180 37 1671780 1954486,2360 1976748,7780 1975686,5590 1957846,5220 1929201,5890 1895589,8420 1861031,5650 1827144,0840 1793849,2340 38 977920 1794953,9870 1786095,4930 1753290,5680 1707093,6970 1655853,4350 1605777,3280 1559967,4850 1519014,5220 1482390,2540 39 912190 1265803,0490 1196537,1190 1108449,4700 1015474,8800 926818,1431 847507,6841 778765,9097 719721,3264 669076,7248 40 1210930 993487,8903 887154,1159 775748,3257 674600,9818 591377,5833 528047,4604 482885,3973 452951,0116 435594,4818 41 1292860 1076852,3540 981498,0206 900244,5695 846214,3869 822311,0844 825345,0852 849555,9255 889316,8001 940126,7645 42 1229570 1172316,5980 1105757,0200 1069871,8440 1071212,6960 1105007,1600 1161727,5040 1231569,8480 1306721,8510 1381573,6250 43 1671610 1175963,4990 1132344,1770 1128494,4220 1161243,7730 1217480,4420 1282729,7710 1345561,4810 1398676,9830 1438096,4110 44 1670090 1472385,0500 1472914,9390 1514928,2580 1584968,0980 1663932,6220 1736351,5600 1793322,5120 1831690,8840 1852026,8640 45 1830780 1601903,9670 1631892,2510 1696518,9050 1773975,0840 1843448,7080 1893034,1140 1919757,2690 1926416,0200 1918441,1380 46 1901880 1763858,0960 1815763,7060 1889736,1610 1959625,0590 2007868,5300 2029709,6540 2029374,7190 2014814,7850 1994083,8330 47 1661680 1879581,0620 1942306,2430 2011868,9550 2062686,2340 2084499,8990 2081021,1950 2062333,9170 2038625,5940 2017210,8410
(23)
90
Lanjutan Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (
Smoothing
) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari
Holt
) dengan
α = 0,6
dan Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan untuk α = 0,6
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
48 1530720 1768676,1850 1815128,1090 1853568,0600 1863549,2080 1844186,4780 1806462,9810 1763122,9510 1723096,0330 1690354,9900 49 1442890 1631460,8630 1651551,8820 1653559,0520 1625439,3880 1575445,1660 1518796,2220 1467253,3250 1425967,7120 1394833,7550 50 1056470 1512562,4820 1508383,9650 1482937,0190 1433685,6070 1375484,0910 1323705,2790 1285974,8780 1262541,0820 1249877,6330 51 1131140 1205785,5810 1165035,1230 1106072,1420 1034600,3490 967943,4340 917612,2010 885219,4506 866404,3108 855603,0626 52 1014250 1123398,0860 1068430,1710 1004640,4060 942937,7617 898688,1409 876846,9775 873005,9103 879824,7330 891485,1805 53 1113210 1013760,2020 953152,5699 895663,4386 853253,6641 835520,5814 839871,9762 857309,0119 879583,0300 901997,0302 54 1299600 1035248,0370 985624,4210 950607,0326 939145,54570 952936,3832 982859,6643 1017884,6670 1051003,2940 1079632,7740 55 1358710 1171538,2880 1148124,2310 1147237,2040 1171845,3670 1215735,7890 1265915,2600 1312269,3690 1350731,8190 1381303,3730 56 1726310 1272750,6920 1273860,4470 1299420,3760 1345238,8080 1399213,8150 1448009,6050 1484994,3150 1509918,7560 1525237,1920 57 1785010 1561009,2120 1599008,8800 1657693,7770 1726613,2700 1791293,8800 1841595,4850 1875996,8810 1898021,3280 1911950,0350 58 1855830 1724972,6670 1786608,3880 1859140,0580 1928398,2700 1981460,7430 2013879,0630 2029403,4170 2034236,9190 2033307,5540 59 1487660 1840901,4890 1912446,7840 1981614,7600 2034187,8850 2062330,2650 2068386,8310 2060357,1970 2045579,8350 2028504,6820 60 1392630 1645176,5280 1690905,7290 1720790,7840 1724435,0390 1701374,9940 1660226,2790 1611303,8860 1561413,4800 1513625,4050 61 1494715,7530 1509478,2190 1500374,2520 1463882,6910 1407351,3880 1343609,3980 1282821,5290 1229712,8680 1185318,1760 62 1495782,8940 1507016,1460 1476854,1910 1402413,3670 1298574,7780 1187550,2840 1085543,5040 999282,3438 929608,1890 63 1496850,0350 1504554,0740 1453334,1300 1340944,0420 1189798,1680 1031491,1710 888265,4796 768851,8196 673898,2025 64 1497917,1760 1502092,0020 1429814,0680 1279474,7170 1081021,5580 875432,0569 690987,4546 538421,2955 418188,2160 65 1498984,3170 1499629,9290 1406294,0070 1218005,3930 972244,9477 719372,9432 493709,4297 307990,7713 162478,2295 66 1500051,4580 1497167,8570 1382773,9460 1156536,0680 863468,3377 563313,8295 296431,4048 77560,2472 -93231,7570 67 1501118,5990 1494705,7840 1359253,8840 1095066,7440 754691,7278 407254,7158 99153,3799 -152870,2770 -348941,7430 68 1502185,7410 1492243,7120 1335733,8230 1033597,4190 645915,1178 251195,6021 -98124,6450 -383300,8010 -604651,7300 69 1503252,8820 1489781,6390 1312213,7620 972128,0948 537138,5078 95136,4884 -295402,6700 -613731,3250 -860361,7170 70 1504320,0230 1487319,5670 1288693,7000 910658,7702 428361,8978 -60922,6253 -492680,6950 -844161,8490 -1116071,700
(24)
91
Lanjutan Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (
Smoothing
) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari
Holt
) dengan
α = 0,6
dan Berbagai Nilai γ
Perio de
Data Aktual
Ramalan untuk
α = 0,6
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
71 1505387,1640 1484857,4940 1265173,6390 849189,4457 319585,2878 -216981,7390 -689958,7200 -1074592,370 -1371781,690 72 1506454,3050 1482395,4220 1241653,5780 787720,1212 210808,6778 -373040,8530 -887236,7450 -1305022,900 -1627491,680
SSE 4.187.221.478.7
25,220
4.451.052.601.5 32,970
4.645.033.138.7 88,460
4.708.681.256.0 85,700
4.661.483.861.0 58,360
4.561.826.590.4 35,630
4.465.578.097.7 59,850
4.404.547.228.8 73,260
4.388.099.927.8 42,960
MSE 72.193.473.771,
124
76.742.286.233, 327
80.086.778.254, 974
81.184.159.587, 684
80.370.411.397, 558
78.652.182.593, 718
76.992.725.823, 446
75.940.469.463, 332
75.656.895.307, 637
(25)
92
Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (
Smoothing
) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari
Holt
) dengan
α = 0,7
dan
Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan untuk α = 0,7
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
1 907020 - - - -
2 813980 - - - -
3 1050000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 720940,0000 4 991530 881276,2000 904310,4000 927344,6000 950378,8000 973413,0000 996447,2000 1019481,4000 1042515,6000 1065549,8000 5 960470 896165,8260 930603,2640 961815,9140 989803,7760 1014566,8500 1036105,1360 1054418,6340 1069507,3440 1081371,2660 6 1299060 883392,0060 920930,4662 950132,6663 971675,8115 986237,1075 994493,7597 997122,9735 994801,9546 988207,9082 7 1516420 1145669,6200 1207979,7620 1256915,4320 1294917,9950 1324239,1970 1346941,1680 1364896,4180 1379787,8430 1393108,7190 8 1587950 1402457,4300 1489428,1840 1555598,2210 1606063,2110 1645055,1050 1676008,5000 1701627,0070 1723949,6180 1744417,0690 9 1307870 1542549,2530 1637726,7650 1702067,9310 1744406,0770 1771384,0910 1787815,1290 1797015,4500 1801109,3640 1801306,3210 10 1782850 1372093,2530 1439980,3920 1467171,2790 1467622,8350 1450996,8550 1423724,1640 1389894,7120 1351987,2440 1311452,2140 11 1752750 1682195,4250 1761144,2250 1795480,8150 1805337,4690 1803515,2850 1797815,7250 1792792,5820 1791019,7510 1793962,5870 12 1478380 1759094,8970 1835248,1840 1863930,2040 1870857,3680 1870432,9640 1870045,5890 1872971,0780 1880228,4430 1891681,7690 13 1341160 1570455,6950 1615458,8250 1611440,4780 1588560,6740 1561230,7300 1535156,0010 1511615,9980 1489896,9220 1468558,4090 14 1194040 1401759,2360 1415066,1820 1382880,6600 1338545,4780 1295391,3050 1257156,8040 1223632,0350 1193450,7900 1165306,4030 15 1385250 1233625,9520 1221020,7240 1171672,1760 1120095,3850 1077182,5200 1044263,9870 1019752,7490 1001862,9080 989448,9675 16 1366710 1327646,6500 1319646,1850 1287007,9740 1262650,6490 1253390,5030 1257457,2680 1271529,6160 1292930,3150 1319893,3870 17 1526630 1345609,2940 1342844,7580 1325368,1390 1321575,8470 1332936,7220 1354323,3990 1380723,0640 1408589,1610 1435543,1790 18 1450650 1475613,5370 1487478,2630 1491085,1790 1508612,5690 1536537,2350 1567696,0110 1596919,4970 1621333,6840 1639566,8140 19 1397870 1459681,3620 1472526,3580 1479122,9030 1495308,0660 1514370,8560 1529362,4700 1536920,3730 1536388,1780 1528570,3120 20 1199810 1413628,9140 1420642,8960 1421525,1110 1427088,0570 1429999,6430 1425689,5700 1413839,9530 1396388,3470 1375984,1650 21 1732670 1246203,8560 1235519,2520 1219043,6000 1204342,1980 1185479,9040 1161076,2810 1133399,1500 1105662,5230 1080576,5970 22 1578730 1603030,9680 1622585,2640 1639162,6910 1658452,2250 1676642,5160 1694763,6560 1715911,6260 1742570,9630 1775775,1700 23 1685450 1600620,0340 1624807,3300 1644749,5530 1664605,0100 1681963,9190 1698377,7330 1715688,3720 1734134,5560 1752438,2850 24 1618820 1680538,8520 1708667,9240 1729676,7050 1746991,4430 1759484,4680 1768736,3080 1775508,5930 1779044,2820 1777938,6000
(26)
93
Lanjutan Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (
Smoothing
) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari
Holt
) dengan
α = 0,7
dan Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan untuk α = 0,7
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
25 1321640 1653553,1770 1674606,3930 1685233,9430 1689178,3690 1686867,0690 1680238,0310 1670036,2490 1656150,6020 1638702,9760 26 1225120 1414197,5530 1406946,6380 1387520,3860 1360897,7030 1329226,3750 1295051,3750 1259654,3840 1223930,5610 1189156,6140 27 1553630 1261591,4370 1233628,9830 1196538,2380 1156831,7470 1117932,9360 1082560,2010 1052053,9760 1027366,6340 1009385,6390 28 1525230 1466209,3010 1456390,8280 1444189,8640 1436672,4710 1436995,8760 1446619,1640 1465503,1060 1493061,9410 1528285,2940 29 1443910 1511846,1090 1512976,8660 1515623,7800 1525540,7960 1543716,7020 1568973,4040 1598924,0230 1630904,6460 1662150,3550 30 1608970 1463857,6240 1463359,3160 1465070,0610 1472420,6710 1483876,6040 1496229,0460 1506069,4270 1510616,4560 1507894,4500 31 1845110 1575160,9450 1584401,5470 1595664,9330 1610260,4450 1625249,2630 1637298,9400 1644176,3290 1645149,9830 1640837,2750 32 1652570 1792746,3750 1822511,4000 1852524,8580 1882668,2530 1909910,3190 1932198,5530 1949363,8980 1962785,6510 1974709,9390 33 2063850 1713431,6580 1735374,5590 1752814,3160 1765185,0850 1770461,5240 1768446,4450 1760713,1590 1749577,5870 1737145,5770 34 2067270 2002062,5270 2043116,0690 2076114,6470 2101462,3100 2119208,8520 2131286,3050 2140550,9890 2149503,7190 2159596,0550 35 2127400 2095610,3100 2141214,0720 2173641,3700 2195165,6310 2208048,4520 2215645,4150 2220988,6540 2225824,6760 2230559,7840 36 1775520 2167990,9240 2210800,5030 2235279,6990 2246393,2510 2248564,3740 2245981,0740 2241352,5130 2235694,1450 2228949,2390 37 1671780 1915916,1430 1924421,1620 1910905,6610 1883601,0260 1848837,6200 1811172,1200 1772887,7390 1734641,4640 1696489,6550 38 977920 1750586,1790 1730519,5970 1690759,0610 1642835,4720 1594331,4260 1549566,7440 1510187,5150 1476505,2400 1448566,6970 39 912190 1161198,5570 1081283,1840 989316,8781 898727,4732 816533,5692 745291,4984 684864,3653 634154,6384 591980,3906 40 1210930 920940,6716 816828,2142 716676,5788 633253,5812 570662,9628 528095,2955 502645,9814 491138,2604 490725,5526 41 1292860 1078280,5590 1001783,9730 947795,7075 924478,8108 930113,2439 958845,0105 1004157,6350 1060434,7210 1123195,9030 42 1229570 1197854,0860 1155372,3450 1146945,9480 1172344,1130 1222260,6930 1285707,2210 1353426,2900 1418732,8160 1477176,3890 43 1671610 1191643,2580 1167533,5280 1179739,0710 1218423,9520 1268160,1850 1315885,2510 1353214,3040 1375988,0670 1383075,5100 44 1670090 1532805,6820 1551180,5890 1602297,9030 1668567,9970 1732565,4680 1783771,0550 1818592,6000 1838140,9250 1846049,9750 45 1830780 1643700,3110 1681858,0250 1742237,8930 1802973,3710 1848956,6390 1875326,7530 1884375,8140 1881614,2640 1873023,5300 46 1901880 1802547,2780 1854393,3320 1915296,7320 1963563,8400 1989995,1670 1996566,8260 1990331,8300 1978672,0780 1966985,1730 47 1661680 1906924,6590 1962572,0580 2014166,8700 2044239,5050 2051236,4170 2042940,3810 2028547,2380 2014555,8590 2003927,4070
(27)
94
Lanjutan Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (
Smoothing
) Eksponensial Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari
Holt
) dengan
α = 0,7
dan Berbagai Nilai γ
Periode Data Aktual
Ramalan untuk α = 0,7
γ = 0,1 γ = 0,2 γ = 0,3 γ = 0,4 γ = 0,5 γ = 0,6 γ = 0,7 γ = 0,8 γ = 0,9
48 1530720 1752930,7470 1784760,7870 1801665,6690 1793185,5430 1765124,0460 1728583,0880 1692106,9140 1659570,5120 1631254,2110 49 1442890 1599505,8210 1604179,6960 1589344,7180 1552707,0030 1505576,9190 1459501,4030 1420423,2290 1389246,6210 1364443,6990 50 1056470 1481034,2360 1465943,8110 1433411,9420 1388333,6800 1344291,3590 1310319,1080 1288445,8410 1276708,7460 1272340,7150 51 1131140 1145279,2640 1096652,7120 1036980,3010 975605,8525 924674,2154 888453,7943 864690,4627 849119,6858 838217,2695 52 1014250 1095832,0240 1042962,6030 990093,3459 947606,0656 923321,0969 916091,4066 920393,1225 931043,3436 944790,5560 53 1113210 993464,1099 941012,8056 899277,1566 876043,4312 872917,2775 883786,2995 901270,7904 920393,1686 938698,9917 54 1299600 1040407,9480 1003807,4740 986230,1969 990253,2801 1011170,5850 1039724,7220 1068656,3030 1094447,5420 1116085,4580 55 1358710 1203107,5430 1194529,8280 1208596,7680 1241606,3160 1284069,8720 1326126,8650 1362507,3690 1392022,2300 1415388,5590 56 1726310 1304186,5940 1316108,7580 1348207,5180 1391178,2590 1433440,7030 1467109,4250 1490178,9780 1504016,7880 1510848,9970 57 1785010 1621378,9470 1667330,6110 1726812,2640 1787206,7290 1838076,2060 1875588,4340 1901504,6610 1919419,3540 1932547,5600 58 1855830 1769080,8270 1830262,2810 1893705,2120 1946490,1860 1981983,6850 2001179,1950 2008909,9820 2009860,8860 2007198,4660 59 1487660 1869037,8330 1932295,2630 1985393,3020 2018464,3710 2030576,1390 2027383,7610 2015696,3870 2000310,0490 1983805,6040 60 1392630 1614609,4870 1642937,2210 1650656,7360 1633712,4030 1597414,2260 1550842,1510 1501275,4790 1452641,7710 1406497,0150 61 1456221,4190 1454565,7970 1429529,1510 1384262,7390 1329270,1730 1274909,5650 1227191,9220 1188213,6960 1158047,2190 62 1453218,9910 1441409,4280 1389020,2820 1303570,7580 1204475,0790 1109725,4840 1029160,2000 965793,8599 919304,3330 63 1450216,5640 1428253,0590 1348511,4130 1222878,7770 1079679,9840 944541,4037 831128,4780 743374,0243 680561,4473 64 1447214,1360 1415096,6900 1308002,5430 1142186,7950 954884,8900 779357,3232 633096,7561 520954,1887 441818,5615 65 1444211,7090 1401940,3210 1267493,6740 1061494,8140 830089,7955 614173,2426 435065,0342 298534,3530 203075,6758 66 1441209,2820 1388783,9520 1226984,8040 980802,8323 705294,7011 448989,1621 237033,3124 76114,5174 -35667,2100 67 1438206,8540 1375627,5830 1186475,9350 900110,8509 580499,6066 283805,0815 39001,5905 -146305,3180 -274410,0960 68 1435204,4270 1362471,2140 1145967,0660 819418,8694 455704,5121 118621,0010 -159030,1310 -368725,1540 -513152,9810 69 1432201,9990 1349314,8450 1105458,1960 738726,8880 330909,4176 -46563,0796 -357061,8530 -591144,9900 -751895,8670 70 1429199,5720 1336158,4760 1064949,3270 658034,9066 206114,3231 -211747,1600 -555093,5750 -813564,8250 -990638,7530
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v
PERBANDINGAN METODE PEMULUSAN (SMOOTHING) EKSPONENSIAL GANDA DUA PARAMETER DARI HOLT DAN METODE BOX-JENKINS DALAM MERAMALKAN
HASIL PRODUKSI KERNEL KELAPA SAWIT PT. EKA DURA INDONESIA
ABSTRACK
Oil palm plantations in Indonesia, not only owned by the government (BUMN), but also private parties, both individuals and companies. Oil Palm Research Center in Riau is a company that produces palm oil. One of them is PT. Eka Dura Indonesia are located in Riau. Where one produced by PT. Eka Dura Indonesia is the Kernel. On the production of kernels each period is not always the same so it will be difficult for decision makers in estimating production kernel. In this study, the method used to forecast or predict the kernel production is two-parameter double exponential smoothing from Holt method and Box-Jenkins ARIMA method. Based on the results of the two methods of forecasting obtained, in forecasting two-parameter double exponential smoothing from Holt method, parameter smallest error value is selected from all combinations are � = 0,8 and
� = 0,2 with value ��� = 2.958.007.360.424,220 kg and
��� = 51.000.126.904,866 kg. While forecasting ARIMA method from
ARIMA model (1,3,2)(1,3,0)12 generate value ��� = 1.968.101.351.473 kg and
��� = 45.769.798.871 kg.
Keywords : Forecasting, Two-Parameter Double Exponential Smoothing, Box-Jenkins
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vi DAFTAR ISI
Halaman
PERSETUJUAN i
PERNYATAAN ii
PENGHARGAAN iii
ABSTRAK iv
ABSTRACT v
DAFTAR ISI vi
DAFTAR TABEL viii
DAFTAR GAMBAR ix
DAFTAR LAMPIRAN x
Bab 1 PENDAHULUAN
1.1 Latar Belakang 1
1.2 Perumusan Masalah 2
1.3 Batasan Masalah 3
1.4 Tujuan Penelitian 3
1.5 Kontribusi Penelitian 3
1.6 Tinjauan Pustaka 4
1.7 Metodologi Penelitian 7
Bab 2 LANDASAN TEORI
2.1 Metode Pemulusan Eksponensial 10
2.1.1 Metode Pemulusan Eksponensial Satu Parameter 10
2.1.2 Metode Pemulusan Eksponensial Dua Parameter 12
2.2Ukuran Error Peramalan 15 2.2.1 Ukuran Standar Statistik 16
2.2.2 Ukuran Relatif Statistik 17
2.3 Pengujian Data 18
2.3.1 Uji Kecukupan Sampel 18
2.3.2 Uji Musiman 19
2.3.3 Uji Trend 20
2.4 Metodologi Untuk Menganisis Data Deret Berkala 21
2.5 Metode ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) 25
2.5.1 Model Autoregressive (AR) 25
2.5.2 Model Moving Average (MA) 26
2.5.3 Model Campuran Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) 27
2.5.4 Model Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) 27 2.6 Model Arima dan Musiman 28
2.7 Estimasi Parameter Model 29
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vii Bab 3 HASIL DAN PEMBAHASAN
3.1 Pemulusan (Smoothing) Eksponensial Ganda Dua Perameter
dari Holt 32
3.1.1 Plot Time Series Produksi Kernel PT. Ekadura Indonesia 32
3.1.2 Pengujian Data 34
3.1.2.1 Uji Kecukupan Sampel 34
3.1.2.2 Uji Musiman 35
3.1.2.3 Uji Trend 37
3.1.3 Analisis Pemulusan Eksponensial Ganda Dua Parameter dari Holt 37
3.1.4 Nilai kesalahan (Galat) 41
3.2 Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) 49
3.2.1 Plot Time Series Produksi Kernel PT Eka Dura Indonesia 49
3.2.2 Identifikasi Model 52
3.2.3 Estimasi Parameter Model 58
3.2.4 Verifikasi Parameter Model 60
3.2.5 Pemilihan Model ARIMA 61
3.2.6 Peramalan 62
3.2.6.1 Hasil Peramalan dengan Menggunakan Metode Holt 62
3.2.6.2 Hasil Peramalan dengan Menggunakan Metode ARIMA 63
3.3 Melakukan Perbandingan Hasil Analisis Ramalan 63
Bab 4 KESIMPULAN DAN SARAN 4.1 Kesimpulan 65
4.2 Saran 66
DAFTAR PUSTAKA 67
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viii
DAFTAR TABEL
Nomor Judul Halaman
Tabel
3.1 Data Produksi Kernel Kelapa Sawit PT. Eka Dura Indonesia 32
3.2 Perhitungan ANAVA Uji Musiman 36
3.3 Peramalan Produksi Kernel (kg) dengan Parameter �= 0,1 dan � = 0,1 38
3.4 Nilai Kesalahan dengan Parameter �= 0,1 dan � = 0,1 41
3.5 Peramalan Produksi Kernel (kg) dengan Parameter �= 0,8 dan � = 0,2 44
3.6 Hasil Nilai SSE Dari Kombinasi Parameter � dan � 47
3.7 Hasil Nilai MSE Dari Kombinasi Parameter � dan � 48
3.8 Differencing I Data Produksi Kernel PT Eka Dura Indonesia 50
3.9 Nilai Koefisien Autokorelasi 53
3.10 Final Estimates of Parameters ARIMA 58
3.11 Uji Signifikansi Nilai-Nilai Parameter Model ARIMA 61
3.12 Perbandingan Model ARIMA 62
3.13 Peramalan Produksi Kernel PT. Eka Dura Indonesia Tahun 2015 (kg) dengan Parameter � = 0,8 dan � = 0,2 62
3.14 Hasil Peramalan Model ARIMA 63
3.15 Peramalan Produksi Kernel PT. Eka Dura Indonesia Tahun 2015 (kg) 64
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ix
DAFTAR GAMBAR
Nomor Judul Halaman
Gambar
3.1 Plot Data Produksi Kernel 34
3.2 Plot Ramalan Data Produksi Kernel dengan Parameter
�= 0,1 dan � = 0,1 41
3.3 Plot Ramalan Data Produksi Kernel Pada Tahun 2015 �= 0,8 dan � = 0,2 46
3.4 Plot Time Series Produksi Kernel PT Eka Dura Indonesia 49
3.5 Plot Trend Data Produksi Kernel PT. Eka Dura Indonesia 49
3.6 Plot Trend Data Produksi Setelah Differencing 51
3.7 Plot Trend Data Produksi Setelah Differencing III 51
3.8 Hasil Plot Autokorelasi Produksi Kernel 57
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x
DAFTAR LAMPIRAN
Nomor Judul Halaman
Lamp
1 Tabel Perhitungan Pemulusan (Smoothing) Eksponensial 68 Ganda (Linier Dua Perameter dari Holt) dengan berbagai
nilai α dan γ
2 Model ARIMA 104
3 Data Differencing II 120
4 Data Differencing III 121
5 Nilai Autokorelasi 122
6 Nilai Autokorelasi Parsial 124