Implikasi Kebijakan KESIMPULAN DAN IMPLIKASI KEBIJAKAN 8.1. Kesimpulan

tahun 2011 kebijakan ini telah diperluas kepada seluruh penduduk Indonesia. Dengan kemudahan yang diberikan maka akan terjadi peningkatan jumlah penduduk Indonesia yang pergi ke luar negeri sehingga devisa yang mengalir ke luar akan meningkat. Jika tidak dimbangi dengan upaya pemerintah untuk mendatangkan wisman sebanyak-banyaknya wisatawan mancanegara maka neraca pariwisata yang selama ini mengalami surplus, suatu saat bisa terjadi defisit. 4. Terjadinya travel warning di negara asal wisatawan diawali oleh ketidakamanan Indonesia dalam menjaga wisatawan terhadap aksi teror bom. Oleh karena itu upaya peningkatan jumlah kunjungan wisman ke Indonesia harus diimbangi dengan tingkat keamanan yang memadai. 5. Perubahan kebijakan pemerintah dalam pemberian Bebas Visa Kunjungan Singkat BVKS menjadi Visa Saat Kedatangan VSK atau Visa On Arrival VOA yang menganut asas resiprokal tidak mempengaruhi jumlah kunjungan wisman ke Indonesia. Bertambahnya proses birokrasi di Indonesia yang tidak diimbangi dengan peningkatan pelayanan yang memadai, memberikan kesan kepada wisman bahwa untuk berkunjung ke Indonesia setelah lelah dengan penerbangan masih dibebani antrian yang cukup panjang dalam proses pembayaran VOA maupun keimigrasian. Oleh karena itu perlu ditata kembali dengan menambah counter pelayanan untuk lebih mempercepat proses mereka memasuki wilayah Indonesia tanpa mengabaikan ketelitian aparat dalam melakukan pemeriksaan, selain terus menambah area bandara. 6. Penyusunan model pariwisata internasional dengan menggunakan ekonometrika bisa dikembangkan lagi di luar enam negara utama sehingga semakin banyak model yang disusun bisa mengidentifikasi lebih rinci tentang faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi wisman yang berkunjung ke Indonesia dari berbagai negara. Selain itu, jika tersedia data negara tujuan dari penduduk Indonesia yang pergi ke luar negeri bisa dianalisis lebih rinci neraca pariwisata Indonesia dengan negara asal wisman sehingga kebijakan pariwisata Indonesia bisa lebih terarah. 7. Simulasi kebijakan untuk melihat dampak ekonomi pariwisata internasional di Indonesia bisa dikembangkan dengan menggunakan Sistem Neraca Sosial Ekonomi SNSE atau Social Accounting Matrix SAM sehingga bisa dilihat dampak suatu kebijakan fiskal maupun moneter terhadap distribusi pendapatan masyarakat melalui permintaan barang dan jasa oleh wisatawan. 8. Dampak sektoral pariwisata bisa diukur dengan menggunakan analisis Tabel Input-Output. Namun Tabel Input-Output ini masih merupakan tabel yang bersifat umum secara sektoral. Untuk menganalisis dampak ekonomi pariwisata yang lebih tajam secara sektoral perlu disusun Tabel Input-Output khusus pariwisata. DAFTAR PUSTAKA Akal, M. 2010. 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D ata M od e l E k on om e tr ik a SINGAPORE UNITS S per US Dollar US Percent per Annum Index Number US US US US US US Persons Arrivals US Index Number SCALE None Billions None None Billions Billions Billions Billions Billions Billions Millions None None None Year Market Rate Money Supply Deposit Rate Consumer Prices Househ.C ons.Expe nd.,incl.N PISHs Govt Cons Expend. Gross Fixed Capital Formation Exports Imports Gross Domestic Product Popu- lation Tourist Arrivals Tourist Expen- diture per visit Consumer Prices Index Indonesia Year ER_SIN MS_SIN R_SIN CPI_SIN C_SIN G_SIN I_SIN X_SIN M_SIN Y_SIN POP_SIN TA_SIN TE_SIN CPIINA 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1984 2.13 4.60 6.98 78.72 10.65 2.63 11.77 31.13 31.81 24.38 2.73 133,297 443.90 19.15 1985 2.20 4.39 4.99 79.10 10.56 3.34 9.96 30.20 30.77 23.30 2.74 142,466 560.64 20.05 1986 2.18 4.53 3.91 78.00 11.48 3.29 9.18 30.56 30.47 24.04 2.73 153,504 817.96 21.22 1987 2.11 5.20 2.89 78.41 13.33 3.42 10.49 38.80 38.75 27.30 2.78 243,240 633.82 23.19 1988 2.01 6.15 2.74 79.61 15.33 3.35 10.89 49.68 47.41 31.84 2.85 347,493 573.47 25.05 1989 1.95 7.05 3.21 81.47 16.97 3.69 12.50 53.46 50.47 36.15 2.93 450,281 592.11 26.66 1990 1.81 8.42 4.67 84.29 19.68 4.33 15.54 60.75 57.82 42.48 3.05 582,734 464.59 28.74 1991 1.73 9.51 4.63 87.18 21.36 4.68 16.40 64.89 59.84 47.49 3.14 710,706 479.39 31.45 1992 1.63 11.37 2.86 89.15 24.13 4.94 19.26 68.48 63.25 53.56 3.23 809,144 781.48 33.82 1993 1.62 14.16 2.30 91.19 27.23 5.62 22.73 77.03 72.29 60.33 3.32 858,034 705.47 37.09 1994 1.53 15.33 3.00 94.02 31.13 5.94 23.55 97.19 86.61 71.20 3.42 1,017,155 571.71 40.25 1995 1.42 17.88 3.50 95.64 34.24 7.06 28.36 116.86 103.53 82.99 3.53 1,046,533 728.16 44.05 1996 1.41 19.18 3.41 96.96 36.87 8.26 31.34 119.67 106.22 89.92 3.67 1,300,482 941.27 47.56 1997 1.48 18.53 3.47 98.90 37.32 8.39 35.20 118.61 107.01 92.51 3.80 1,376,377 644.42 50.52 1998 1.67 16.28 4.60 98.64 31.81 7.97 24.71 106.00 89.55 80.95 3.93 1,446,660 464.98 80.02 1999 1.69 18.35 1.68 98.66 35.85 8.46 27.36 117.95 103.93 85.68 3.96 1,332,877 578.74 96.41 2000 1.72 19.29 1.71 100.00 39.17 10.06 30.87 137.95 125.33 92.72 4.03 1,427,886 638.65 100.00 2001 1.79 20.14 1.54 101.00 40.28 10.48 23.15 124.30 111.11 87.09 4.14 1,477,132 385.23 111.50 2002 1.79 20.01 0.91 100.60 42.63 11.19 21.60 128.96 113.65 90.73 4.18 1,447,315 526.74 124.75 2003 1.74 22.23 0.51 101.11 43.88 11.40 15.27 147.35 121.14 96.76 4.12 1,469,282 538.85 132.97 2004 1.69 26.13 0.41 102.79 46.21 11.74 23.55 197.23 169.72 109.01 4.17 1,644,717 457.79 141.27 2005 1.66 27.69 0.44 103.23 48.62 12.67 23.56 226.80 192.85 118.79 4.27 1,417,803 507.78 156.03 2006 1.59 32.88 0.57 104.29 53.49 14.91 26.68 264.94 225.19 134.83 4.40 1,401,804 507.82 176.49 2007 1.51 42.42 0.53 106.45 59.77 15.79 34.06 279.74 236.18 153.19 4.59 1,352,412 593.02 187.80 2008 1.41 53.51 0.42 113.41 65.56 17.55 47.82 434.11 400.00 165.05 4.67 1,397,056 818.07 207.10 291 La m p ir an 1. Lan ju tan MALAYSIA UNITS Ringgit per US Dollar US Percent per Annum Index Number US US US US US US Persons Arrivals US Index Number SCALE None Billions None None Billions Billions Billions Billions Billions Billions Millions None None None Year Official Rate Money Supply Deposit Rate Consumer Prices Househ.Co ns.Expend .,incl.NPIS Hs GovT Consump Expend. Gross Fixed Capital Formation Exports of Goods and Services Imports of Goods and Services Gross Domestic Product GDP Popu- lation Tourist Arrivals Tourist Expen- diture per visit Consumer Prices Index Indonesia Year ER_MLY MS_MLY R_MLY CPI_MLY C_MLY G_MLY I_MLY X_MLY M_MLY Y_MLY POP_MLY TA_MLY TE_MLY CPIINA 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1984 2.34 5.70 9.50 64.32 27.63 8.19 18.63 30.12 29.07 55.51 15.25 59,474 447.83 19.15 1985 2.48 5.47 8.81 64.55 27.01 7.94 14.32 28.52 25.85 51.94 15.68 65,808 606.20 20.05 1986 2.58 5.41 7.08 65.02 25.76 8.56 13.13 28.45 25.37 50.53 16.13 67,865 516.20 21.22 1987 2.52 6.26 3.00 65.21 26.28 8.11 12.59 34.32 26.75 54.56 16.61 89,886 771.36 23.19 1988 2.62 6.81 3.29 66.88 28.39 8.21 15.21 38.33 32.44 57.71 17.10 105,460 627.27 25.05 1989 2.71 7.84 4.56 68.76 30.43 8.56 18.18 43.43 39.74 60.85 17.60 137,779 491.13 26.66 1990 2.70 8.96 5.72 70.56 34.41 9.16 21.50 49.46 48.11 66.43 18.10 191,506 548.83 28.74 1991 2.75 9.78 7.11 73.63 37.34 9.80 27.05 55.70 58.32 71.57 18.60 318,478 491.01 31.45 1992 2.55 11.93 7.94 77.14 42.29 10.95 29.75 63.93 62.79 84.13 19.09 338,049 629.38 33.82 1993 2.57 16.24 7.03 79.87 44.18 11.56 35.85 72.21 72.30 91.50 19.58 361,089 787.48 37.09 1994 2.62 17.71 4.89 82.85 47.18 12.02 40.38 87.38 88.95 98.02 20.08 371,457 712.45 40.25 1995 2.50 20.73 5.93 85.71 54.06 13.96 49.23 106.14 110.57 112.80 20.59 511,903 742.52 44.05 1996 2.52 24.08 7.09 88.70 56.85 13.72 51.23 113.11 111.40 123.52 21.13 392,562 870.00 47.56 1997 2.81 22.52 7.78 91.06 53.76 12.76 50.95 110.60 109.52 118.55 21.67 481,713 828.03 50.52 1998 3.92 13.79 8.51 95.86 32.72 7.69 21.00 91.13 73.81 78.73 22.21 491,597 454.23 80.02 1999 3.80 19.33 4.12 98.49 35.88 9.48 19.32 104.69 83.07 86.30 22.75 440,212 444.75 96.41 2000 3.80 20.58 3.36 100.00 41.04 9.53 25.20 112.37 94.35 93.79 23.27 475,845 616.01 100.00 2001 3.80 21.24 3.37 101.42 43.48 11.35 23.00 104.08 87.64 94.28 23.77 484,692 482.61 111.50 2002 3.80 23.44 3.21 103.25 44.72 12.87 24.62 107.61 90.47 99.36 24.26 475,163 589.05 124.75 2003 3.80 26.87 3.07 104.28 46.85 13.63 23.93 112.41 91.71 105.11 24.73 466,811 698.13 132.97 2004 3.80 30.07 3.00 105.86 49.38 14.12 25.87 129.49 106.63 112.24 25.19 622,541 511.58 141.27 2005 3.79 32.75 3.00 108.99 53.19 14.65 23.71 139.35 112.26 118.63 25.65 591,358 526.81 156.03 2006 3.67 38.47 3.15 112.93 58.16 15.48 27.15 151.34 122.50 129.64 26.11 769,988 474.80 176.49 2007 3.44 49.16 3.17 115.22 66.99 17.92 32.22 161.82 132.06 146.88 26.57 891,353 585.99 187.80 2008 3.46 52.84 3.00 121.52 78.79 20.62 33.57 178.14 158.43 152.69 27.30 1,117,454 684.86 207.10 292 La m p ir an 1. Lan ju tan JAPAN UNITS Yen per US Dollar US Percent per Annum Index Number US US US US US US Persons Arrivals US Index Number SCALE None Billions None None Billions Billions Billions Billions Billions Billions Millions None None None Year Market Rate Money Supply Deposit Rate Consumer Prices Househ.Cons. Expend.,incl. NPISHs Govt Consump Expend. Gross Fixed Capital Formation Exports of Goods and Services Imports of Goods and Services - Gross Domestic Product GDP Population Tourist Arrivals Tourist Expen- diture per visit Consumer Prices Index Indonesia Year ER_JPN MS_JPN R_JPN CPI_JPN C_JPN G_JPN I_JPN X_JPN M_JPN Y_JPN POP_JPN TA_JPN TE_JPN CPIINA 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1984 237.52 363.63 3.50 84.42 765.87 193.59 392.11 204.45 167.87 1,388.16 120.14 88,593 1,119.45 19.15 1985 238.54 373.03 3.50 86.15 801.55 201.85 416.60 208.32 158.52 1,469.81 120.84 89,221 1,085.94 20.05 1986 168.52 582.78 2.32 86.68 1,159.14 297.53 599.37 238.80 155.47 2,139.37 121.47 103,023 804.84 21.22 1987 144.64 711.92 1.76 86.79 1,408.47 361.14 748.37 263.85 186.83 2,595.00 122.05 134,445 1,037.66 23.19 1988 128.15 872.71 1.76 87.35 1,680.16 425.73 964.50 307.83 240.07 3,138.15 122.58 157,929 973.66 25.05 1989 137.96 829.71 1.97 89.35 1,638.03 412.49 974.21 316.99 270.22 3,071.50 123.08 194,366 1,135.61 26.66 1990 144.79 826.22 3.56 92.09 1,644.62 399.37 1,016.45 321.97 292.67 3,089.74 123.54 267,970 1,324.89 28.74 1991 134.71 972.78 4.14 95.09 1,814.27 446.10 1,115.78 342.01 286.70 3,431.46 123.97 290,907 1,710.51 31.45 1992 126.65 1,074.92 3.35 96.72 1,976.17 492.02 1,131.80 362.13 282.51 3,679.62 124.37 394,693 1,392.01 33.82 1993 111.20 1,309.56 2.14 97.95 2,290.08 580.99 1,233.74 382.41 289.08 4,198.14 124.75 377,551 1,226.50 37.09 1994 102.21 1,483.93 1.70 98.63 2,529.35 677.63 1,306.29 419.16 325.59 4,606.85 125.12 476,456 2,131.92 40.25 1995 94.06 1,823.74 0.90 98.51 2,806.95 771.48 1,449.81 467.35 395.46 5,100.13 125.47 486,278 1,900.95 44.05 1996 108.78 1,729.65 0.30 98.64 2,500.42 694.22 1,308.88 444.86 422.07 4,526.31 125.82 665,711 1,214.29 47.56 1997 120.99 1,688.39 0.30 100.38 2,281.22 633.40 1,172.28 449.80 403.61 4,133.09 126.15 706,942 1,135.25 50.52 1998 130.91 1,637.83 0.27 101.05 2,094.04 595.20 982.57 408.03 338.03 3,741.80 126.47 469,409 1,105.78 80.02 1999 113.91 2,102.94 0.12 100.72 2,449.65 709.38 1,066.98 441.33 373.22 4,294.12 126.77 606,102 1,053.63 96.41 2000 107.77 2,300.00 0.07 100.00 2,624.65 788.42 1,187.71 512.88 444.98 4,668.68 127.03 643,794 1,077.35 100.00 2001 121.53 2,318.79 0.06 99.24 2,368.41 726.00 1,026.69 438.05 411.59 4,147.55 127.27 611,314 1,137.51 111.50 2002 125.39 2,775.23 0.04 98.35 2,323.65 724.41 929.79 457.99 405.39 4,030.44 127.48 620,722 957.55 124.75 2003 115.93 3,897.34 0.04 98.11 2,540.79 797.99 1,010.08 530.92 459.01 4,420.77 127.66 463,088 966.69 132.97 2004 108.19 4,352.50 0.08 98.10 2,777.92 873.81 1,121.28 647.40 553.38 4,867.02 127.80 615,720 887.02 141.27 2005 110.22 4,492.37 0.27 97.83 2,775.39 879.41 1,147.69 698.01 630.49 4,870.00 127.90 517,879 838.50 156.03 2006 116.30 4,258.68 0.68 98.07 2,690.26 832.45 1,128.03 756.56 697.81 4,709.49 127.95 419,213 968.36 176.49 2007 117.75 4,234.93 0.81 98.13 2,707.90 835.72 1,134.25 840.07 757.91 4,760.02 127.97 508,820 741.00 187.80 2008 103.36 4,836.61 0.57 99.51 3,004.14 952.04 1,163.14 866.47 601.08 5,384.71 127.69 546,713 1,196.94 207.10 293 La m p ir an 1. Lan ju tan AUSTRALIA UNITS AUD per US Dollar US Percent per Annum Index Number US US US US US US Persons Arrivals US Index Number SCALE None Billions None None Billions Billions Billions Billions Billions Billions Millions None None None Year Market Rate Money Supply Deposit Rate Consumer Prices Househ.Cons .Expend.,incl .NPISHs Govt Consump Expend. Gross Fixed Capital Formation Exports of Goods and Services Imports of Goods and Services Gross Domestic Product GDP Population Tourist Arrivals Tourist Expen- diture per visit Consumer Prices Index Indonesia Year ER_AUS MS_AUS R_AUS CPI_AUS C_AUS G_AUS I_AUS X_AUS M_AUS Y_AUS POP_AUS TA_AUS TE_AUS CPIINA 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1984 1.14 20.48 10.66 51.41 244.09 82.63 113.36 61.46 71.21 430.33 15.60 107,347 339.93 19.15 1985 1.43 17.41 11.98 54.88 203.57 69.18 98.23 56.47 65.58 361.88 15.82 122,982 353.57 20.05 1986 1.49 18.82 13.87 59.86 201.83 69.07 92.11 53.47 62.81 353.68 16.05 122,404 401.01 21.22 1987 1.43 23.75 12.73 64.95 216.47 71.21 101.91 60.54 64.37 385.76 16.30 133,151 840.89 23.19 1988 1.28 31.27 11.43 69.64 248.79 79.86 123.49 69.52 74.49 447.17 16.58 147,836 1,093.90 25.05 1989 1.27 34.38 15.69 74.91 264.14 82.58 139.01 72.08 84.18 473.62 16.85 163,327 1,456.13 26.66 1990 1.28 36.42 13.53 80.35 273.10 86.08 120.76 74.57 79.38 475.13 17.09 169,740 1,053.58 28.74 1991 1.28 39.18 9.45 82.94 277.49 89.26 100.84 77.44 75.85 469.19 17.31 219,306 1,006.77 31.45 1992 1.35 44.62 6.09 83.76 271.93 86.59 97.24 77.80 79.02 454.53 17.52 234,723 908.84 33.82 1993 1.47 48.30 4.93 85.28 256.61 81.84 97.45 77.62 79.57 433.96 17.70 287,850 1,343.35 37.09 1994 1.37 57.50 4.92 86.90 287.12 90.29 117.88 87.12 93.18 489.22 17.88 305,209 1,210.31 40.25 1995 1.35 62.08 6.11 90.93 305.78 93.93 120.67 96.58 103.74 513.23 18.10 320,494 1,294.45 44.05 1996 1.28 74.46 5.71 93.30 330.97 103.10 130.52 107.08 107.54 564.13 18.34 380,475 1,257.73 47.56 1997 1.35 80.02 4.32 93.54 326.89 100.71 126.40 112.15 109.55 556.59 18.54 539,156 1,194.74 50.52 1998 1.59 72.28 3.71 94.33 293.23 89.85 122.88 97.70 105.86 497.79 18.74 394,543 1,383.59 80.02 1999 1.54 81.79 3.47 95.72 317.17 97.01 134.83 99.79 112.60 536.20 18.96 531,211 1,295.33 96.41 2000 1.72 79.82 4.20 100.00 291.31 90.16 118.48 106.85 111.95 494.85 19.27 459,994 1,264.29 100.00 2001 1.92 86.81 3.20 104.38 268.41 82.08 99.16 100.93 97.65 452.93 19.53 397,982 1,661.55 111.50 2002 1.85 80.54 3.07 107.52 289.76 88.06 117.32 100.43 105.24 490.32 19.77 346,245 946.89 124.75 2003 1.54 104.61 3.26 110.50 356.32 109.51 157.12 108.70 123.94 607.71 20.01 268,538 1,114.15 132.97 2004 1.35 124.95 3.63 113.08 421.23 129.05 187.71 129.76 149.30 718.44 20.25 406,389 1,154.74 141.27 2005 1.32 138.90 3.70 116.10 432.07 135.66 204.45 146.50 160.47 758.21 20.54 391,862 1,136.32 156.03 2006 1.33 155.07 3.95 120.21 434.48 138.59 205.64 161.01 170.24 769.49 20.87 226,981 1,330.31 176.49 2007 1.19 194.32 4.66 123.01 500.72 159.02 253.35 179.97 196.34 896.72 21.24 314,432 1,196.98 187.80 2008 1.16 235.97 4.05 128.37 496.81 160.18 262.62 204.06 183.97 939.69 21.64 450,178 1,484.34 207.10 294 La m p ir an 1. Lan ju tan UNITED STATES AF AMERICA UNITS SDRs per US Dollar US Percent per Annum Index Number US US US US US US Persons Arrivals US Index Number SCALE None Billions None None Billions Billions Billions Billions Billions Billions Millions None None None Year SDRUS Dollar Rate Money Supply Certificate s of Deposit Rate Consumer Prices Househ.Con s.Expend.,i ncl.NPISHs Govt Consump Expend. Gross Fixed Capital Formation Exports of Goods and Services Imports of Goods and Services Gross Domestic Product GDP Population Tourist Arrivals Tourist Expen- diture per visit Consumer Prices Index Indonesia Year ER_USA MS_USA R_USA CPI_USA C_USA G_USA I_USA X_USA M_USA Y_USA POP_USA TA_USA TE_USA CPIINA 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1984 1.03 564.60 10.37 60.34 4,186.05 1,099.72 1,463.16 505.63 677.43 6,577.13 240.55 50,790 569.83 19.15 1985 1.02 633.30 8.05 62.49 4,414.91 1,168.82 1,452.51 490.16 677.14 6,849.25 243.06 58,599 439.03 20.05 1986 1.17 739.80 6.52 63.65 4,604.48 1,232.36 1,460.48 508.99 719.75 7,086.55 245.60 65,199 495.47 21.22 1987 1.29 765.40 6.86 66.03 4,783.84 1,257.89 1,495.58 561.54 785.57 7,313.28 248.16 64,497 691.08 23.19 1988 1.34 803.10 7.73 68.68 5,002.97 1,272.28 1,503.33 662.52 827.20 7,613.90 250.76 67,061 756.55 25.05 1989 1.28 810.60 9.09 71.99 5,174.26 1,296.10 1,542.31 723.76 850.51 7,885.93 253.40 74,777 816.55 26.66 1990 1.36 842.70 8.15 75.88 5,316.10 1,335.14 1,490.64 764.70 872.66 8,033.93 256.10 106,266 1,113.16 28.74 1991 1.37 915.60 5.84 79.09 5,328.42 1,355.66 1,367.76 797.82 834.54 8,015.13 258.85 101,344 1,118.68 31.45 1992 1.41 1,045.60 3.68 81.48 5,537.94 1,370.13 1,422.48 830.72 874.20 8,287.08 261.65 125,337 1,316.32 33.82 1993 1.40 1,153.30 3.17 83.89 5,733.02 1,372.69 1,500.98 839.67 922.91 8,523.45 264.49 154,762 1,670.64 37.09 1994 1.43 1,174.50 4.63 86.08 5,949.50 1,384.88 1,653.69 904.21 1,021.61 8,870.68 267.36 169,061 1,747.42 40.25 1995 1.52 1,152.70 5.92 88.49 6,116.62 1,397.07 1,692.38 998.43 1,110.75 9,093.75 270.25 155,111 1,582.39 44.05 1996 1.45 1,105.80 5.39 91.09 6,344.31 1,413.38 1,792.40 1,048.24 1,164.40 9,433.93 273.14 197,923 1,591.23 47.56 1997 1.38 1,097.50 5.62 93.22 6,582.83 1,443.62 1,948.42 1,133.64 1,254.16 9,854.35 276.04 171,707 1,493.35 50.52 1998 1.36 1,121.20 5.47 94.66 6,912.30 1,476.60 2,082.68 1,123.86 1,311.91 10,283.53 278.96 150,042 1,141.41 80.02 1999 1.37 1,148.20 5.33 96.73 7,306.98 1,551.56 2,224.30 1,152.87 1,455.87 10,779.85 281.90 151,763 1,164.02 96.41 2000 1.32 1,111.60 6.46 100.00 7,706.67 1,620.48 2,332.77 1,253.63 1,687.57 11,225.98 284.86 176,379 1,298.04 100.00 2001 1.27 1,208.20 3.69 102.83 7,904.33 1,682.41 2,171.67 1,157.14 1,568.36 11,347.18 287.84 177,869 1,595.71 111.50 2002 1.29 1,245.00 1.73 104.46 8,111.35 1,784.20 2,125.73 1,110.01 1,578.31 11,552.98 290.83 160,982 1,413.49 124.75 2003 1.40 1,332.00 1.15 106.83 8,322.08 1,875.92 2,182.19 1,124.32 1,663.80 11,840.70 293.84 130,276 1,195.25 132.97 2004 1.48 1,401.30 1.56 109.69 8,601.17 1,935.21 2,373.23 1,240.87 1,886.69 12,263.80 296.84 153,268 1,310.47 141.27 2005 1.48 1,396.50 3.51 113.41 8,845.64 1,991.59 2,527.18 1,334.37 2,060.39 12,638.38 299.85 157,936 1,333.94 156.03 2006 1.47 1,387.30 5.15 117.07 9,066.00 2,049.53 2,606.45 1,458.04 2,203.76 12,976.25 302.84 130,963 1,462.74 176.49 2007 1.53 1,386.20 5.27 120.41 9,320.93 2,123.31 2,489.25 1,595.76 2,275.20 13,254.05 305.83 155,652 1,419.93 187.80 2008 1.58 1,625.80 2.97 125.03 9,337.81 2,657.75 1,969.07 1,687.92 2,340.37 13,312.18 307.18 174,331 1,675.41 207.10 295 La m p ir an 1. Lan ju tan UNITED KINGDOM UNITS Poundster ling per US Dollar US Percent per Annum Index Number US US US US US US Persons Arrivals US Index Number SCALE None Billions None None Billions Billions Billions Billions Billions Billions Millions None None None Year Market Rate Money Supply Deposit Rate Consumer Prices Househ.Co ns.Expend., incl.NPISHs Got Consump Expend. Gross Fixed Capital Formation Exports of Goods and Services Imports of Goods and Services - Gross Domestic Product GDP Population Tourist Arrivals Tourist Expen-diture per visit Consumer Prices Index Indonesia Year ER_UK MS_UK R_UK CPI_UK C_UK G_UK I_UK X_UK M_UK Y_UK POP_UK TA_UK TE_UK CPIINA 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1984 0.75 19.53 7.27 52.37 565.25 208.15 174.70 267.39 270.07 945.42 56.47 35,948 419.59 19.15 1985 0.77 19.65 11.79 55.55 565.32 201.62 174.24 272.69 263.74 950.14 56.55 36,854 600.91 20.05 1986 0.68 23.39 9.85 57.45 687.16 237.85 202.78 286.12 295.53 1,118.38 56.66 42,144 454.11 21.22 1987 0.61 27.26 8.57 59.84 801.41 270.85 249.34 331.20 346.38 1,306.42 56.79 49,020 592.47 23.19 1988 0.56 32.14 8.55 62.78 927.29 298.69 319.84 342.03 396.42 1,491.43 56.94 62,068 765.05 25.05 1989 0.61 31.16 11.51 67.67 873.58 277.18 310.87 331.62 389.10 1,404.15 57.09 77,557 895.22 26.66 1990 0.56 34.79 12.54 74.08 959.38 310.14 310.37 369.38 409.02 1,540.24 57.24 132,999 817.99 28.74 1991 0.57 35.54 10.28 78.42 946.92 317.44 257.08 348.60 364.30 1,505.74 57.38 101,062 854.28 31.45 1992 0.57 36.34 7.46 81.35 955.65 323.48 243.85 354.58 372.90 1,504.66 57.52 117,826 990.12 33.82 1993 0.67 32.64 3.97 82.62 842.70 272.10 206.62 333.51 346.38 1,308.54 57.66 133,209 1,234.50 37.09 1994 0.65 35.72 3.66 84.66 889.24 282.25 229.38 369.40 378.84 1,391.43 57.81 162,304 933.32 40.25 1995 0.63 38.73 4.11 87.55 937.81 288.26 253.44 417.47 419.20 1,477.77 57.96 165,788 1,274.45 44.05 1996 0.64 40.84 3.05 89.70 962.96 286.28 253.93 440.76 439.63 1,504.30 58.12 145,268 1,284.36 47.56 1997 0.61 45.53 3.63 92.51 1,044.58 295.76 280.54 466.22 457.46 1,629.64 58.28 142,161 1,175.32 50.52 1998 0.60 48.61 4.48 95.67 1,103.31 303.99 313.63 453.17 466.40 1,707.70 58.45 137,600 1,164.87 80.02 1999 0.62 53.03 3.31 97.16 1,123.71 315.34 312.29 451.10 476.17 1,726.27 58.65 138,296 1,452.55 96.41 2000 0.66 52.41 3.72 100.00 1,101.63 313.18 296.79 464.37 495.31 1,680.67 58.87 161,662 1,350.13 100.00 2001 0.69 53.74 3.16 101.82 1,077.03 311.45 285.49 443.15 481.59 1,635.54 59.12 189,027 1,504.78 111.50 2002 0.67 59.36 2.49 103.49 1,144.98 344.08 297.30 454.08 499.52 1,740.92 59.39 160,077 1,067.03 124.75 2003 0.61 69.16 2.29 106.50 1,268.99 398.03 325.93 496.94 541.38 1,948.51 59.68 98,916 1,087.22 132.97 2004 0.55 81.45 2.74 109.66 1,453.67 471.48 384.52 568.16 629.49 2,248.33 59.97 113,578 1,179.65 141.27 2005 0.55 85.72 2.89 112.76 1,477.57 489.63 393.54 603.35 681.20 2,282.89 60.24 163,898 1,169.95 156.03 2006 0.54 97.92 2.89 116.36 1,522.66 513.63 418.08 676.73 754.41 2,376.68 60.51 110,412 1,246.45 176.49 2007 0.50 118.88 3.43 121.34 1,689.79 559.59 486.58 698.81 786.86 2,647.91 60.77 121,599 1,354.18 187.80 2008 0.54 124.89 2.88 116.54 1,583.06 530.12 428.32 650.37 722.15 2,469.72 61.28 150,412 1,456.84 207.10 296 La m p ir an 1. Lan ju tan INDONESIA UNITS Indonesias Rupiah per US Dollar US Percent per Annum Index Number US US US US US US Persons Trips US Persons Rp US US SCALE None Billions None None Billions Billions Billions Billions Billions Billions Millions None None None None None per Barrel Year Market Rate Money Supply Deposit Rate Fgn. Currency Consumer Prices Househ.Co ns.Expend., incl.NPISHs Govt Consump Expend. Gross Fixed Capital Formation Exports of Goods and Services Imports of Goods and Services - Gross Domestic Product GDP Popu- lation Indonesian ke LN Indonesian Tourist Expenditure per visit Haji Ongkos Naik Haji Ongkos Naik Haji Oil Price Year ERINA MSINA RINA CPIINA CINA GINA IINA XINA MINA YINA POPINA TDINA TEINA HDINA ONH_RP ONH POIL 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1984 1025.95 17.48 4.63 19.15 398.43 67.22 173.49 169.49 146.24 662.38 160.08 208,912 2,460 38,114 3,075,570 2,997.8 28.78 1985 1110.58 20.85 5.21 20.05 369.43 70.51 176.04 139.32 128.33 626.97 163.04 201,744 2,929 39,976 3,128,500 2,817.0 27.56 1986 1282.56 21.57 4.45 21.22 355.45 63.18 162.19 111.57 117.59 574.80 166.02 182,820 3,118 57,472 3,212,000 2,504.4 14.43 1987 1643.84 20.61 4.86 23.19 271.61 44.36 147.23 112.81 105.45 470.56 168.99 217,258 2,352 56,403 3,212,000 1,954.0 18.44 1988 1685.70 24.91 5.13 25.05 277.21 43.61 152.69 118.57 106.67 485.40 171.99 246,393 2,403 54,419 4,560,000 2,705.1 14.92 1989 1770.10 33.16 5.39 26.66 263.88 46.66 174.57 126.57 114.95 496.73 175.06 319,827 2,070 57,912 5,150,000 2,909.4 18.23 1990 1842.80 45.92 5.07 28.74 278.31 45.99 184.90 135.53 133.04 511.68 178.23 395,052 2,060 81,244 5,320,000 2,886.9 23.73 1991 1950.29 50.79 6.75 31.45 284.37 47.23 183.42 141.60 139.53 517.08 181.32 495,862 1,954 79,373 6,000,000 3,076.5 20.00 1992 2029.91 58.65 5.67 33.82 276.64 50.34 189.53 155.54 143.16 528.90 184.32 729,098 1,599 104,861 6,475,000 3,189.8 19.32 1993 2087.11 69.57 4.21 37.09 321.50 49.58 161.97 147.01 130.60 549.46 187.23 952,532 1,616 122,881 6,700,000 3,210.2 16.97 1994 2160.80 80.76 3.63 40.25 340.63 46.31 177.26 151.31 144.77 570.74 190.04 1,111,677 1,709 158,533 6,900,000 3,193.3 15.82 1995 2248.60 99.01 4.84 44.05 365.48 46.47 189.51 156.17 164.09 593.54 192.75 1,241,420 1,750 196,548 7,070,000 3,144.2 17.02 1996 2347.00 122.98 5.00 47.56 382.32 46.39 188.17 158.33 162.11 613.11 195.46 1,248,184 1,922 193,071 7,290,000 3,106.1 20.67 1997 2909.38 122.24 5.79 50.52 319.41 35.44 164.42 144.27 145.69 517.84 198.16 1,105,626 2,182 197,532 7,551,000 2,595.4 19.09 1998 10013.67 57.66 11.31 80.02 88.59 7.44 21.93 69.23 56.49 130.70 200.87 1,256,312 1,672 200,094 8,805,000 879.3 12.72 1999 7855.15 82.27 7.45 96.41 124.18 11.09 19.09 59.64 46.07 167.94 203.57 1,958,981 1,201 70,691 27,373,000 3,484.7 17.97 2000 8396.34 88.97 5.56 100.00 101.09 10.71 36.48 67.19 49.94 165.52 206.27 2,205,433 1,450 174,491 21,855,000 2,602.9 28.50 2001 10247.43 82.37 5.37 111.50 88.02 9.60 31.41 54.40 42.87 140.56 209.01 2,505,098 1,360 192,927 20,500,000 2,000.5 24.44 2002 9314.41 94.90 3.26 124.75 106.53 11.43 33.72 51.50 41.58 161.60 211.82 3,231,535 1,018 181,706 21,000,000 2,254.6 25.02 2003 8574.89 111.45 2.17 132.97 114.76 13.69 43.11 51.33 38.97 183.93 214.67 3,478,566 886 179,646 23,800,000 2,775.5 28.83 2004 8933.00 115.74 1.74 141.27 119.26 14.86 42.97 57.54 49.20 185.44 217.59 3,941,381 890 192,690 25,000,000 2,798.6 38.27 2005 9705.17 123.93 2.63 156.03 114.17 14.39 44.49 60.43 53.07 180.40 220.56 4,106,255 873 189,843 25,967,500 2,675.6 40.40 2006 9164.86 150.85 4.01 176.49 123.71 17.03 50.12 61.26 50.58 201.54 223.04 4,967,403 811 187,643 25,963,266 2,832.9 60.60 2007 9140.68 180.47 4.17 187.80 135.36 17.77 53.04 62.63 54.03 214.76 225.63 5,158,441 951 188,569 26,722,327 2,923.5 64.79 2008 9680.28 195.85 4.17 207.10 133.57 18.44 60.58 65.23 62.73 215.09 228.58 4,996,594 1,122 191,823 28,400,100 2,933.8 96.26 Lampiran 1. Lanjutan OTHERS UNITS Indonesias Rupiah per US Dollar Arrivals US Index Number SCALE None None None None Year Market Rate Tourist Arrivals Tourist Expenditure per visit Consumer Prices Index Indonesia Year ER TA TE CPIINA 1984 1,025.95 225,461 863.96 19.15 1985 1,110.58 233,421 878.44 20.05 1986 1,282.56 270,896 730.56 21.22 1987 1,643.84 346,108 821.14 23.19 1988 1,685.70 413,202 659.05 25.05 1989 1,770.10 527,878 625.35 26.66 1990 1,842.80 726,351 1,303.31 28.74 1991 1,950.29 828,067 1,285.74 31.45 1992 2,029.91 1,044,389 1,196.47 33.82 1993 2,087.11 1,230,643 1,418.82 37.09 1994 2,160.80 1,504,670 1,262.48 40.25 1995 2,248.60 1,638,122 1,309.75 44.05 1996 2,347.00 1,952,051 1,359.80 47.56 1997 2,909.38 1,767,187 1,100.91 50.52 1998 10,013.67 1,516,565 1,249.80 80.02 1999 7,855.15 1,527,059 1,186.53 96.41 2000 8,396.34 1,718,657 1,481.32 100.00 2001 10,247.43 1,815,604 1,487.52 111.50 2002 9,314.41 1,822,896 1,170.30 124.75 2003 8,574.89 1,570,110 1,216.03 132.97 2004 8,933.00 1,764,952 1,346.34 141.27 2005 9,705.17 1,761,365 1,248.80 156.03 2006 9,164.86 1,811,990 1,287.77 176.49 2007 9,140.68 2,161,491 1,333.60 187.80 2008 9,680.28 2,398,353 1,507.12 207.10 298 La m p ir an 1. Lan ju tan LAIN-LAIN UNITS SCALE Year Indonesia Rupiah Singapore Dollar Malaysia Ringgit Thailand Baht Indonesia Singapore Malaysia Thailand Singapore Malaysia Thailand Year ERI ERS ERM ERT CPIINA CPI_SIN CPI_MLY CPI_THA TAS_AUS TAM_AUS TAT_AUS 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1984 1025.95 2.13 2.34 23.64 15.72 78.72 64.32 51.87 187.57 31.64 53.33 1985 1110.58 2.20 2.48 27.16 16.50 79.10 64.55 53.13 190.08 33.48 56.89 1986 1282.56 2.18 2.58 26.30 16.86 78.00 65.02 54.11 200.68 34.69 60.68 1987 1643.84 2.11 2.52 25.72 20.11 78.41 65.21 55.46 236.89 36.28 79.31 1988 1685.70 2.01 2.62 25.29 21.10 79.61 66.88 57.57 274.78 39.38 101.34 1989 1770.10 1.95 2.71 25.70 22.90 81.47 68.76 60.66 324.69 59.44 121.19 1990 1842.80 1.81 2.70 25.59 25.20 84.29 70.56 64.26 361.63 126.72 130.91 1991 1950.29 1.73 2.75 25.52 26.50 87.18 73.63 67.95 367.96 104.57 132.81 1992 2029.91 1.63 2.55 25.40 27.87 89.15 77.14 70.71 385.08 107.68 137.46 1993 2087.11 1.62 2.57 25.32 28.90 91.19 79.87 73.09 365.13 117.18 161.04 1994 2160.80 1.53 2.62 25.15 30.47 94.02 82.85 76.81 347.36 131.16 167.60 1995 2248.60 1.42 2.50 24.92 33.93 95.64 85.71 81.27 346.76 136.30 192.57 1996 2347.00 1.41 2.52 25.34 36.60 96.96 88.70 86.01 351.59 150.03 215.07 1997 2909.38 1.48 2.81 31.36 39.88 98.90 91.06 90.83 381.46 129.26 233.78 1998 10013.67 1.67 3.92 41.36 80.48 98.64 95.86 98.16 427.23 145.16 302.82 1999 7855.15 1.69 3.80 37.81 88.90 98.66 98.49 98.46 466.07 134.31 303.84 2000 8396.34 1.72 3.80 40.11 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 510.35 236.78 323.28 2001 10247.43 1.79 3.80 44.43 113.00 101.00 101.42 101.64 550.68 222.34 363.70 2002 9314.41 1.79 3.80 42.96 118.00 100.60 103.25 102.27 538.41 194.00 358.62 2003 8574.89 1.74 3.80 41.48 122.00 101.11 104.28 104.11 392.91 145.00 284.75 2004 8933.00 1.69 3.80 40.22 131.00 102.79 105.86 106.99 561.16 204.00 399.29 2005 9705.17 1.66 3.79 40.22 151.00 103.23 108.99 111.85 620.26 265.00 428.52 2006 9164.86 1.59 3.67 37.88 171.67 104.29 112.93 117.04 691.63 277.00 538.49 2007 9140.68 1.51 3.44 34.52 195.17 106.45 115.22 119.65 768.49 320.00 638.13 2008 9680.28 1.41 3.46 33.32 246.00 113.41 121.52 126.20 833.16 427.00 710.00 None None Thousands National Currency per US Consumer Price Index Australian visitors 299 La m p ir an 1. Lan ju tan UNITS SCALE Year Singapore Malaysia Thailand Singapore Malaysia Thailand Singapore Malaysia Thailand Malaysia Thailand Singapore Thailand Year TAS_JPN TAM_JPN TAT_JPN TAS_USA TAM_USA TAT_USA TAS_UK TAM_UK TAT_UK TAM_SIN TAT_SIN TAS_MLY TAT_MLY 1 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 1984 444.15 76.77 225.63 76.78 27.02 285.49 140.02 38.18 75.98 911.32 115.95 255.67 280.18 1985 450.10 81.23 240.68 81.24 28.82 285.49 141.90 40.40 81.05 964.26 123.69 259.09 298.87 1986 475.19 84.16 256.73 84.17 30.74 285.49 149.81 41.86 86.46 999.08 131.94 273.54 318.80 1987 560.93 88.04 335.54 88.04 40.18 285.49 176.84 43.79 113.00 1,045.04 172.44 322.89 416.67 1988 650.65 95.56 428.72 95.57 51.33 285.49 205.13 47.53 144.38 1,134.42 220.32 374.54 532.37 1989 768.83 144.23 512.72 144.24 61.39 285.49 242.39 71.74 172.67 1,712.13 263.49 442.57 636.68 1990 856.29 307.49 553.85 307.52 66.31 285.49 269.96 152.93 186.52 3,650.12 284.63 492.92 687.75 1991 871.28 253.72 561.86 253.75 67.27 285.49 274.69 126.19 189.22 3,011.89 288.75 501.54 697.70 1992 1,000.77 261.27 581.53 287.57 69.63 285.49 303.31 129.95 195.84 3,101.53 298.86 561.19 722.13 1993 1,000.96 284.32 681.29 307.39 81.57 285.49 310.70 141.41 229.44 3,375.10 350.12 605.22 846.01 1994 1,109.23 318.25 709.07 343.68 84.90 285.49 301.98 158.28 238.79 3,777.86 364.40 653.27 880.50 1995 1,178.91 330.73 814.71 345.51 97.55 285.49 288.67 164.49 274.37 3,925.97 418.69 681.14 1,011.68 1996 1,171.86 353.20 934.11 374.00 101.06 308.57 312.51 166.59 286.89 3,759.70 437.10 700.94 1,056.17 1997 1,094.04 308.90 965.45 376.41 94.65 311.08 333.16 162.08 287.66 3,327.36 492.09 682.04 1,046.03 1998 843.71 252.18 986.26 342.63 83.09 361.71 357.94 160.68 375.91 3,007.67 586.11 519.57 918.07 1999 860.66 286.94 1,064.54 351.46 83.26 417.86 401.47 136.40 425.69 4,900.08 528.89 509.20 1,009.82 2000 929.90 455.98 1,197.93 385.59 184.10 473.29 444.98 287.76 461.62 5,420.20 659.54 564.75 1,055.93 2001 755.77 397.64 1,168.55 343.81 145.83 485.28 460.02 262.42 502.01 6,951.59 669.17 578.72 1,161.49 2002 723.43 355.00 1,233.24 327.65 128.00 519.67 458.53 239.29 574.01 7,547.76 687.98 548.66 1,297.62 2003 434.09 214.00 1,026.29 250.68 131.00 469.17 387.98 125.57 550.09 5,922.31 633.81 439.44 1,340.19 2004 598.84 301.00 1,212.21 333.16 145.00 627.51 457.26 204.41 757.27 9,520.31 578.03 537.34 1,404.93 2005 588.54 340.00 1,196.65 371.44 151.00 639.66 467.15 240.03 773.84 9,634.51 650.56 577.99 1,373.95 2006 594.41 354.00 1,293.31 399.79 174.00 640.67 488.17 231.39 745.53 9,656.25 818.16 634.30 1,578.63 2007 594.51 368.00 1,248.70 408.89 205.00 623.64 495.69 276.21 746.42 10,492.69 799.10 645.77 1,551.96 2008 571.04 433.00 1,118.00 396.63 223.00 655.00 492.93 370.59 773.14 11,003.49 827.71 647.48 1,607.51 Singaporean visitor Malaysian visitors Thousands Thousands Thousands Thousands Thousands Japanese visitors USA visitors UK visitors Lampiran 2. Uji Identifikasi I. Blok Penerimaan Devisa 1. Singapura Pers Uraian M m K k K – k m –1 Keterangan 1 Kunjungan wisatawan 16 5 17 2 15 4 Over identified 5 Konsumsi 2 1 16 1 Over identified 6 Investasi 2 1 16 1 Over identified 7 Pengeluaran pemerintah 2 1 16 1 Over identified 8 Ekspor 3 1 16 2 Over identified 9 Impor 2 2 15 1 Over identified 11 Pengeluaran wisatawan 2 3 14 1 Over identified 13 Consumer Price Index 2 2 15 1 Over identified 14 Exchange rate 3 17 2 Over identified 15 Suku bunga 2 2 15 1 Over identified 2. Malaysia Pers Uraian M m K k K – k m –1 Keterangan 17 Kunjungan wisatawan 16 4 18 4 14 3 Over identified 21 Konsumsi 2 1 17 1 Over identified 22 Investasi 2 1 17 1 Over identified 23 Pengeluaran pemerintah 2 1 17 1 Over identified 24 Ekspor 3 1 17 2 Over identified 25 Impor 2 1 17 1 Over identified 27 Pengeluaran wisatawan 3 2 16 2 Over identified 29 Consumer Price Index 2 1 17 1 Over identified 30 Exchange rate 3 18 2 Over identified 31 Suku bunga 2 2 16 1 Over identified 3. Jepang Pers Uraian M m K k K –k m–1 Keterangan 33 Kunjungan wisatawan 17 6 20 2 18 5 Over identified 38 Konsumsi 2 1 19 1 Over identified 39 Investasi 2 1 19 1 Over identified 40 Pengeluaran pemerintah 2 1 19 1 Over identified 41 Ekspor 3 1 19 2 Over identified 42 Impor 2 1 19 1 Over identified 44 Pengeluaran wisatawan 2 2 18 1 Over identified 46 Consumer Price Index 2 1 19 1 Over identified 47 Exchange rate 3 20 2 Over identified 48 Suku bunga 1 2 18 Over identified Lampiran 2. Lanjutan 4. Australia Pers Uraian M m K k K –k m–1 Keterangan 50 Kunjungan wisatawan 17 6 17 1 16 5 Over identified 55 Konsumsi 2 1 16 1 Over identified 56 Investasi 2 1 16 1 Over identified 57 Pengeluaran pemerintah 2 1 16 1 Over identified 58 Ekspor 3 1 16 2 Over identified 59 Impor 2 1 16 1 Over identified 61 Pengeluaran wisatawan 3 2 15 2 Over identified 63 Consumer Price Index 2 1 16 1 Over identified 64 Exchange rate 3 17 2 Over identified 65 Suku bunga 2 1 16 1 Over identified 5. Amerika Serikat Pers Uraian M m K k K –k m–1 Keterangan 67 Kunjungan wisatawan 17 6 22 2 20 5 Over identified 72 Konsumsi 2 1 21 1 Over identified 73 Investasi 3 2 20 2 Over identified 74 Pengeluaran pemerintah 2 2 20 1 Over identified 75 Ekspor 3 1 21 2 Over identified 76 Impor 2 1 21 1 Over identified 78 Pengeluaran wisatawan 3 2 20 2 Over identified 80 Consumer Price Index 1 1 21 Over identified 81 Exchange rate 3 22 2 Over identified 82 Suku bunga 1 2 20 Over identified 6. Inggris Pers Uraian M m K k K –k m – Keterangan 84 Kunjungan wisatawan 17 6 20 2 18 5 Over identified 89 Konsumsi 2 1 19 1 Over identified 90 Investasi 2 1 19 1 Over identified 91 Pengeluaran pemerintah 2 1 19 1 Over identified 92 Ekspor 3 1 19 2 Over identified 93 Impor 2 1 19 1 Over identified 95 Pengeluaran wisatawan 3 2 18 2 Over identified 97 Consumer Price Index 2 1 19 1 Over identified 98 Exchange rate 3 20 2 Over identified 99 Suku bunga 1 2 18 Over identified 7. Negara Lainnya Pers Uraian M m K k K –k m–1 Keterangan 101 Kunjungan wisatawan 3 1 6 4 2 Over identified 102 Pengeluaran wisatawan 1 3 3 Over identified Lampiran 2. Lanjutan II. Blok Pengeluaran Devisa Pers Uraian M m K k K –k m–1 Keterangan 105 Penduduk Indonesia yang pergi ke LN 17 3 13 3 10 2 Over identified 106 Haji Indonesia 1 1 12 Over identified 107 Konsumsi 2 1 12 1 Over identified 108 Investasi 3 1 12 2 Over identified 109 Pengeluaran pemerintah 2 2 11 1 Over identified 110 Ekspor 3 1 12 2 Over identified 111 Impor 2 1 12 1 Over identified 113 Pengeluaran penduduk Indonesia yang ke LN 3 2 11 2 Over identified 114 Ongkos naik haji 2 4 9 1 Over identified 116 Consumer Price Index 2 2 11 1 Over identified 117 Exchange rate 3 1 12 2 Over identified 118 Suku bunga 2 2 11 1 Over identified Lampran 3. Output Model Ekonometrika 1. SINGAPURA The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model JML_WMAN Dependent Variable TA_SIN Label jumlah wisman asal Singapura Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 6 5.354E12 8.923E11 142.97 .0001 Error 17 1.061E11 6.2414E9 Corrected Total 23 5.446E12 Root MSE 79002.4382 R-Square 0.98057 Dependent Mean 1035545.54 Adj R-Sq 0.97371 Coeff Var 7.62906 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 74780.37 1137831 0.07 0.9484 Intercept Y_SIN 1 4386.317 1858.732 2.36 0.0305 PDB Singapura P_SIN 1 -4108.95 1954.444 -2.10 0.0507 harga pariwisata Indonesia PM_SIN 1 5135.085 4911.918 1.05 0.3105 harga pariwisata Malaysia PT_SIN 1 -898.775 6767.502 -0.13 0.8959 harga pariwisata Thailand LTA_SIN 1 0.674497 0.263780 2.56 0.0204 jumlah wisman t-1 D1 1 -156072 82787.70 -1.89 0.0766 2006 Durbin-Watson 2.20632 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.13081 The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model KONSUMSI Dependent Variable C_SIN Label konsumsi Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 5260.610 2630.305 1282.15 .0001 Error 21 43.08093 2.051473 Corrected Total 23 5303.691 Root MSE 1.43230 R-Square 0.99188 Dependent Mean 33.62061 Adj R-Sq 0.99110 Coeff Var 4.26017 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 2.034666 0.762523 2.67 0.0144 Intercept Y_SIN 1 0.231037 0.041912 5.51 .0001 PDB Singapura LC_SIN 1 0.424973 0.115890 3.67 0.0014 konsumsi t-1 Durbin-Watson 1.117154 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.419312 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model INVEST Dependent Variable I_SIN Label investasi Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 1657.687 828.8433 46.69 .0001 Error 21 372.7805 17.75145 Corrected Total 23 2030.467 Root MSE 4.21325 R-Square 0.81641 Dependent Mean 22.66759 Adj R-Sq 0.79892 Coeff Var 18.58710 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 1.491935 2.485878 0.60 0.5548 Intercept Y_SIN 1 0.115285 0.033288 3.46 0.0023 PDB Singapura LI_SIN 1 0.569744 0.164763 3.46 0.0024 investasi t-1 Durbin-Watson 1.545772 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.142288 The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PENG_PEM Dependent Variable G_SIN Label pengeluaran pemerintah Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 411.3662 205.6831 937.90 .0001 Error 21 4.605325 0.219301 Corrected Total 23 415.9715 Root MSE 0.46830 R-Square 0.98893 Dependent Mean 8.27287 Adj R-Sq 0.98787 Coeff Var 5.66063 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -0.10579 0.217851 -0.49 0.6323 Intercept Y_SIN 1 0.029982 0.009760 3.07 0.0058 PDB Singapura LG_SIN 1 0.785217 0.098398 7.98 .0001 pengeluaran pemerintah t-1 Durbin-Watson 1.78447 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.04678 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model EKSPOR Dependent Variable X_SIN Label ekspor barang dan jasa Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 200983.1 66994.37 296.08 .0001 Error 20 4525.420 226.2710 Corrected Total 23 205680.1 Root MSE 15.04231 R-Square 0.97798 Dependent Mean 128.81343 Adj R-Sq 0.97468 Coeff Var 11.67759 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -164.005 43.84457 -3.74 0.0013 Intercept Y_SIN 1 2.191441 0.128755 17.02 .0001 PDB Singapura ER_SIN 1 65.90293 20.87525 3.16 0.0050 nilai tukar S thd US D2 1 143.1729 17.41718 8.22 .0001 2008 Durbin-Watson 0.414709 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.79227 The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model IMPOR Dependent Variable M_SIN Label impor barang dan jasa Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 155599.4 51866.47 334.15 .0001 Error 20 3104.401 155.2201 Corrected Total 23 158703.8 Root MSE 12.45873 R-Square 0.98044 Dependent Mean 114.29493 Adj R-Sq 0.97750 Coeff Var 10.90051 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -7.83409 6.699949 -1.17 0.2560 Intercept Y_SIN 1 0.640076 0.302435 2.12 0.0470 PDB Singapura LM_SIN 1 0.661196 0.209494 3.16 0.0050 impor barang jasa t-1 D2 1 146.0226 14.83525 9.84 .0001 2008 Durbin-Watson 1.20861 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.394553 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PENG_KUN Dependent Variable TE_SIN Label pengeluaran per kunjungan Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 295407.2 73851.79 10.97 .0001 Error 19 127876.0 6730.313 Corrected Total 23 423283.1 Root MSE 82.03849 R-Square 0.69789 Dependent Mean 604.67323 Adj R-Sq 0.63429 Coeff Var 13.56741 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 392.4448 94.47979 4.15 0.0005 Intercept Y_SIN 1 0.044528 0.507715 0.09 0.9310 PDB Singapura LTE_SIN 1 0.274675 0.131787 2.08 0.0509 pengeluaran per kunjungan t-1 D3 1 290.0793 52.05155 5.57 .0001 1997, 1998 D2 1 255.3863 94.95454 2.69 0.0145 2008 Durbin-Watson 2.269006 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.1425 The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model CPI Dependent Variable CPI_SIN Label indeks harga konsumen Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 1981.949 660.6497 39.91 .0001 Error 20 331.0541 16.55270 Corrected Total 23 2312.397 Root MSE 4.06850 R-Square 0.85687 Dependent Mean 94.33852 Adj R-Sq 0.83540 Coeff Var 4.31266 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 79.33765 4.650325 17.06 .0001 Intercept R_SIN 1 -0.19591 0.947855 -0.21 0.8383 deposit rate foreign curr MS_SIN 1 0.871590 0.144902 6.02 .0001 uang beredar D2 1 -12.4799 5.737418 -2.18 0.0418 2008 Durbin-Watson 0.551873 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.709655 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model EXC_RATE Dependent Variable ER_SIN Label nilai tukar S thd US Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 0.809557 0.404778 21.64 .0001 Error 21 0.392886 0.018709 Corrected Total 23 1.207884 Root MSE 0.13678 R-Square 0.67326 Dependent Mean 1.72305 Adj R-Sq 0.64214 Coeff Var 7.93826 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 1.635723 0.737747 2.22 0.0378 Intercept YC_SIN 1 -0.03654 0.014570 -2.51 0.0204 pendapatan per kapita CPI_SIN 1 0.008878 0.010829 0.82 0.4215 indeks harga konsumen Durbin-Watson 0.129015 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.891991 The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DEP_RATE Dependent Variable R_SIN Label deposit rate foreign curr Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 42.50091 14.16697 22.08 .0001 Error 20 12.83514 0.641757 Corrected Total 23 54.94618 Root MSE 0.80110 R-Square 0.76805 Dependent Mean 2.45417 Adj R-Sq 0.73326 Coeff Var 32.64233 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 5.507559 2.116794 2.60 0.0171 Intercept MS_SIN 1 -0.06074 0.024783 -2.45 0.0236 uang beredar ER_SIN 1 -2.00581 1.002538 -2.00 0.0592 nilai tukar S thd US LR_SIN 1 0.556523 0.144453 3.85 0.0010 deposit rate foreign curr t-1 Durbin-Watson 1.886804 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.0342 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan 2. MALAYSIA The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model JML_WMAN Dependent Variable TA_MLY Label jumlah wisman asal Malaysia Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 7 1.498E12 2.14E11 77.18 .0001 Error 16 4.436E10 2.7724E9 Corrected Total 23 1.543E12 Root MSE 52653.2244 R-Square 0.97124 Dependent Mean 427523.708 Adj R-Sq 0.95865 Coeff Var 12.31586 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -589930 328778.1 -1.79 0.0917 Intercept Y_MLY 1 3812.762 1225.944 3.11 0.0067 PDB Malaysia PS_MLY 1 -4041.44 2579.297 -1.57 0.1367 harga pariwisata Sin PT_MLY 1 5456.358 2915.389 1.87 0.0797 harga pariwisataThai POP_MLY 1 12915.18 13513.52 0.96 0.3534 jumlah pddk Malaysia LTA_MLY 1 0.535525 0.233981 2.29 0.0360 jumlah wisman asal Malaysia t-1 D1 1 -232288 62753.81 -3.70 0.0019 1998 D2 1 119292.0 80085.55 1.49 0.1558 1997 Durbin-Watson 2.414623 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.32554 The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model KONSUMSI Dependent Variable C_MLY Label konsumsi Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 3951.160 1975.580 223.27 .0001 Error 21 185.8146 8.848313 Corrected Total 23 4136.975 Root MSE 2.97461 R-Square 0.95508 Dependent Mean 44.13126 Adj R-Sq 0.95081 Coeff Var 6.74037 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 1.917968 2.332242 0.82 0.4201 Intercept Y_MLY 1 0.443420 0.054263 8.17 .0001 PDB Malaysia LC_MLY 1 0.011019 0.136929 0.08 0.9366 konsumsi t-1 Durbin-Watson 0.641836 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.479827 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model INVEST Dependent Variable I_MLY Label investasi Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 2082.812 1041.406 25.68 .0001 Error 21 851.6656 40.55551 Corrected Total 23 2934.478 Root MSE 6.36832 R-Square 0.70977 Dependent Mean 27.45684 Adj R-Sq 0.68213 Coeff Var 23.19393 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -1.03874 4.585562 -0.23 0.8230 Intercept Y_MLY 1 0.125385 0.053225 2.36 0.0283 PDB Malaysia LI_MLY 1 0.621966 0.137303 4.53 0.0002 investasi t-1 Durbin-Watson 1.254062 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.356309 The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PENG_PEM Dependent Variable G_MLY Label pengeluaran pemerintah Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 230.7582 115.3791 89.40 .0001 Error 21 27.10183 1.290563 Corrected Total 23 257.8601 Root MSE 1.13603 R-Square 0.89490 Dependent Mean 11.77787 Adj R-Sq 0.88489 Coeff Var 9.64546 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 0.969196 0.998098 0.97 0.3426 Intercept Y_MLY 1 0.087220 0.020369 4.28 0.0003 PDB Malaysia LG_MLY 1 0.230588 0.209816 1.10 0.2842 pengeluaran pemerintah t-1 Durbin-Watson 0.738169 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.535474 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model EKSPOR Dependent Variable X_MLY Label ekspor barang dan jasa Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 42416.04 14138.68 773.91 .0001 Error 20 365.3831 18.26915 Corrected Total 23 42790.43 Root MSE 4.27424 R-Square 0.99146 Dependent Mean 92.66623 Adj R-Sq 0.99018 Coeff Var 4.61251 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -84.3772 14.49146 -5.82 .0001 Intercept Y_MLY 1 1.142900 0.150160 7.61 .0001 PDB Malaysia ER_MLY 1 20.26051 4.168898 4.86 .0001 nilai tukar RM thd US LX_MLY 1 0.070511 0.139327 0.51 0.6183 ekspor barang jasa t-1 Durbin-Watson 1.352105 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.264618 The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model IMPOR Dependent Variable M_MLY Label impor barang dan jasa Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 29548.88 14774.44 447.18 .0001 Error 21 693.8282 33.03944 Corrected Total 23 30242.71 Root MSE 5.74799 R-Square 0.97706 Dependent Mean 81.87644 Adj R-Sq 0.97487 Coeff Var 7.02033 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -26.0698 4.623143 -5.64 .0001 Intercept Y_MLY 1 0.923344 0.107774 8.57 .0001 PDB Malaysia LM_MLY 1 0.274665 0.093053 2.95 0.0076 impor barang jasa t-1 Durbin-Watson 1.770553 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.065305 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PENG_KUN Dependent Variable TE_MLY Label pengeluaran per kunjungan Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 5 218651.2 43730.24 5.71 0.0025 Error 18 137780.6 7654.478 Corrected Total 23 359251.4 Root MSE 87.48987 R-Square 0.61344 Dependent Mean 612.11192 Adj R-Sq 0.50607 Coeff Var 14.29312 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 233.4769 193.8980 1.20 0.2441 Intercept YC_MLY 1 78.33943 26.09059 3.00 0.0076 pendapatan per kap P_MLY 1 -1.36585 1.267212 -1.08 0.2953 harga pariwisata Indonesia LTE_MLY 1 0.312102 0.182439 1.71 0.1043 pengeluaran per kunjungan t-1 D2 1 -216.023 105.2894 -2.05 0.0550 1997 D4 1 262.0553 93.42461 2.80 0.0117 1986 Durbin-Watson 2.008316 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.08997 The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model CPI Dependent Variable CPI_MLY Label indeks harga konsumen Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 6189.059 3094.530 56.85 .0001 Error 21 1143.083 54.43254 Corrected Total 23 7334.932 Root MSE 7.37784 R-Square 0.84410 Dependent Mean 89.48909 Adj R-Sq 0.82925 Coeff Var 8.24440 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 68.54808 6.496232 10.55 .0001 Intercept R_MLY 1 -0.71829 0.867520 -0.83 0.4170 deposit rate foreign curr MS_MLY 1 1.197691 0.137843 8.69 .0001 uang beredar Durbin-Watson 0.439727 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.743153 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model EXC_RATE Dependent Variable ER_MLY Label nilai tukar RM thd US Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 7.569515 3.784757 251.05 .0001 Error 21 0.316592 0.015076 Corrected Total 23 7.877840 Root MSE 0.12278 R-Square 0.95985 Dependent Mean 3.12596 Adj R-Sq 0.95603 Coeff Var 3.92786 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 1.589790 0.148831 10.68 .0001 Intercept YC_MLY 1 -0.46517 0.037918 -12.27 .0001 pendapatan per kap CPI_MLY 1 0.039622 0.001770 22.38 .0001 indeks harga kons Durbin-Watson 0.347524 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.616974 The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DEP_RATE Dependent Variable R_MLY Label deposit rate foreign curr Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 62.44145 20.81382 10.88 0.0002 Error 20 38.27285 1.913643 Corrected Total 23 100.7572 Root MSE 1.38334 R-Square 0.61999 Dependent Mean 5.04946 Adj R-Sq 0.56298 Coeff Var 27.39590 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 4.601842 2.231199 2.06 0.0524 Intercept MS_MLY 1 -0.00442 0.029158 -0.15 0.8812 uang beredar ER_MLY 1 -0.83777 0.610316 -1.37 0.1850 nilai tukar RM thd US LR_MLY 1 0.593375 0.159003 3.73 0.0013 deposit rate foreign curr t-1 Durbin-Watson 1.566948 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.208893 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan 3. JEPANG The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model JML_WMAN Dependent Variable TA_JPN Label jumlah wisman asal Jepang Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 7 7.513E11 1.073E11 24.54 .0001 Error 16 6.999E10 4.3741E9 Corrected Total 23 8.378E11 Root MSE 66137.2931 R-Square 0.91479 Dependent Mean 432011.083 Adj R-Sq 0.87750 Coeff Var 15.30917 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -7770345 4951572 -1.57 0.1361 Intercept Y_JPN 1 80.12278 43.57456 1.84 0.0846 PDB Jepang P_JPN 1 -2712.54 1443.589 -1.88 0.0786 harga pariwisata Ind PS_JPN 1 1426.286 5146.943 0.28 0.7852 harga pariwisata Sin PM_JPN 1 5195.145 2891.756 1.80 0.0913 harga parw Malaysia PT_JPN 1 -1550.37 4403.613 -0.35 0.7294 harga parw Thailand POP_JPN 1 60919.31 39944.87 1.53 0.1468 jumlah penduduk D1 1 -134891 56294.71 -2.40 0.0291 2003 2006 Durbin-Watson 2.313356 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.16658 The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model KONSUMSI Dependent Variable C_JPN Label konsumsi Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 7516724 3758362 1663.99 .0001 Error 21 47431.64 2258.649 Corrected Total 23 7564156 Root MSE 47.52525 R-Square 0.99373 Dependent Mean 2203.63431 Adj R-Sq 0.99313 Coeff Var 2.15668 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -94.9365 42.80391 -2.22 0.0377 Intercept Y_JPN 1 0.531469 0.028864 18.41 .0001 PDB Jepang LC_JPN 1 0.091551 0.045561 2.01 0.0575 konsumsi t-1 Durbin-Watson 0.438328 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.758095 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model INVEST Dependent Variable I_JPN Label investasi Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 987449.7 493724.9 67.12 .0001 Error 21 154469.2 7355.675 Corrected Total 23 1141919 Root MSE 85.76523 R-Square 0.86473 Dependent Mean 1055.67970 Adj R-Sq 0.85185 Coeff Var 8.12417 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 190.3540 77.35046 2.46 0.0226 Intercept Y_JPN 1 0.080682 0.031307 2.58 0.0176 PDB Jepang LI_JPN 1 0.533156 0.117781 4.53 0.0002 investasi t-1 Durbin-Watson 0.988959 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.457977 The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PENG_PEM Dependent Variable G_JPN Label pengeluaran pemerintah Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 941880.3 470940.1 276.41 .0001 Error 21 35779.28 1703.775 Corrected Total 23 977659.5 Root MSE 41.27681 R-Square 0.96340 Dependent Mean 629.53201 Adj R-Sq 0.95992 Coeff Var 6.55675 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -81.6915 39.83509 -2.05 0.0530 Intercept Y_JPN 1 0.104901 0.020546 5.11 .0001 PDB Jepang LG_JPN 1 0.494486 0.094254 5.25 .0001 pengeluaran pemerintah t-1 Durbin-Watson 0.715184 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.583371 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model EKSPOR Dependent Variable X_JPN Label ekspor barang dan jasa Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 714163.9 238054.6 140.83 .0001 Error 20 33807.43 1690.371 Corrected Total 23 745432.9 Root MSE 41.11413 R-Square 0.95480 Dependent Mean 463.46520 Adj R-Sq 0.94802 Coeff Var 8.87103 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -302.847 260.6371 -1.16 0.2589 Intercept Y_JPN 1 0.057663 0.042490 1.36 0.1899 PDB Jepang ER_JPN 1 1.148143 1.076152 1.07 0.2987 nilai tukar Yen Jepang thd US LX_JPN 1 0.901193 0.119360 7.55 .0001 ekspor barang jasa t-1 Durbin-Watson 1.51303 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.224375 The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model IMPOR Dependent Variable M_JPN Label impor barang dan jasa Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 548516.6 274258.3 102.67 .0001 Error 21 56096.44 2671.259 Corrected Total 23 604613.0 Root MSE 51.68423 R-Square 0.90722 Dependent Mean 390.90367 Adj R-Sq 0.89838 Coeff Var 13.22173 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -33.6847 46.95517 -0.72 0.4810 Intercept Y_JPN 1 0.031997 0.017119 1.87 0.0756 PDB Jepang LM_JPN 1 0.798802 0.103180 7.74 .0001 impor barang jasa t-1 Durbin-Watson 1.276928 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.178301 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PENG_KUN Dependent Variable TE_JPN Label pengeluaran per kunjungan Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 1933784 483446.1 14.13 .0001 Error 19 650195.3 34220.81 Corrected Total 23 2557958 Root MSE 184.98867 R-Square 0.74837 Dependent Mean 1166.84793 Adj R-Sq 0.69540 Coeff Var 15.85371 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 567.9805 352.7379 1.61 0.1238 Intercept YC_JPN 1 1.713424 6.282852 0.27 0.7880 pendapatan per kap P_JPN 1 -0.57693 1.013893 -0.57 0.5760 harga pariwisata Ind LTE_JPN 1 0.487372 0.119999 4.06 0.0007 pengeluaran wisman t-1 D2 1 752.3391 137.8020 5.46 .0001 1991 1992 Durbin-Watson 2.339572 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.26001 The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model CPI Dependent Variable CPI_JPN Label indeks harga konsumen Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 254.0157 127.0079 8.54 0.0019 Error 21 312.3273 14.87273 Corrected Total 23 560.8615 Root MSE 3.85652 R-Square 0.44852 Dependent Mean 95.97666 Adj R-Sq 0.39600 Coeff Var 4.01818 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 96.43622 2.661684 36.23 .0001 Intercept R_JPN 1 -1.83925 0.868982 -2.12 0.0464 deposit rate foreign curr MS_JPN 1 0.000883 0.000769 1.15 0.2641 uang beredar Durbin-Watson 0.241041 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.851517 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model EXC_RATE Dependent Variable ER_JPN Label nilai tukar Yen Jepang thd US Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 15890.23 7945.113 48.89 .0001 Error 21 3412.797 162.5141 Corrected Total 23 19386.25 Root MSE 12.74810 R-Square 0.82320 Dependent Mean 126.35190 Adj R-Sq 0.80636 Coeff Var 10.08936 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 203.7856 83.81299 2.43 0.0241 Intercept YC_JPN 1 -3.80289 0.703316 -5.41 .0001 pendapatan per kap CPI_JPN 1 0.439854 1.062988 0.41 0.6832 indeks harga kons Durbin-Watson 0.8184 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.280179 The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DEP_RATE Dependent Variable R_JPN Label deposit rate foreign curr Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 32.54653 16.27326 49.01 .0001 Error 21 6.972968 0.332046 Corrected Total 23 39.51950 Root MSE 0.57623 R-Square 0.82356 Dependent Mean 1.27930 Adj R-Sq 0.80675 Coeff Var 45.04294 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 0.202903 0.407306 0.50 0.6235 Intercept MS_JPN 1 -0.00004 0.000117 -0.36 0.7221 uang beredar LR_JPN 1 0.832840 0.121764 6.84 .0001 deposit rate foreign curr t-1 Durbin-Watson 1.042948 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.466485 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan 4. AUSTRALIA The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model JML_WMAN Dependent Variable TA_AUS Label jumlah wisman asal Australia Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 6 3.17E11 5.283E10 14.88 .0001 Error 17 6.035E10 3.55E9 Corrected Total 23 3.724E11 Root MSE 59581.5173 R-Square 0.84006 Dependent Mean 305625.333 Adj R-Sq 0.78361 Coeff Var 19.49495 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -244567 240907.3 -1.02 0.3242 Intercept Y_AUS 1 555.9242 241.6688 2.30 0.0344 PDB Australia P_AUS 1 -2208.65 2282.752 -0.97 0.3468 harga pariwisata Ind PS_AUS 1 8568.131 2694.957 3.18 0.0055 harga parw Singapura PM_AUS 1 3213.470 5095.066 0.63 0.5366 harga parw Malaysia PT_AUS 1 -5806.99 3605.609 -1.61 0.1257 harga parw Thailand D1 1 -118893 49506.67 -2.40 0.0280 2003 2006 Durbin-Watson 2.527691 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.2756 The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model KONSUMSI Dependent Variable C_AUS Label konsumsi Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 161774.1 80887.07 778.71 .0001 Error 21 2181.345 103.8736 Corrected Total 23 163955.5 Root MSE 10.19184 R-Square 0.98670 Dependent Mean 315.25860 Adj R-Sq 0.98543 Coeff Var 3.23285 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 22.26636 8.964153 2.48 0.0215 Intercept Y_AUS 1 0.518171 0.040648 12.75 .0001 PDB Australia LC_AUS 1 0.030465 0.084127 0.36 0.7209 konsumsi t-1 Durbin-Watson 0.579094 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.492692 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model INVEST Dependent Variable I_AUS Label investasi Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 52077.77 26038.88 247.47 .0001 Error 21 2209.595 105.2188 Corrected Total 23 54287.36 Root MSE 10.25762 R-Square 0.95930 Dependent Mean 138.75258 Adj R-Sq 0.95542 Coeff Var 7.39274 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -26.2870 7.719726 -3.41 0.0027 Intercept Y_AUS 1 0.249241 0.035810 6.96 .0001 PDB Australia LI_AUS 1 0.215610 0.137670 1.57 0.1323 investasi t-1 Durbin-Watson 0.833635 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.56107 The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PENG_PEM Dependent Variable G_AUS Label pengeluaran pemerintah Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 15772.43 7886.214 1813.96 .0001 Error 21 91.29787 4.347518 Corrected Total 23 15863.73 Root MSE 2.08507 R-Square 0.99424 Dependent Mean 99.28560 Adj R-Sq 0.99370 Coeff Var 2.10007 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 7.712827 1.953254 3.95 0.0007 Intercept Y_AUS 1 0.162092 0.008161 19.86 .0001 PDB Australia LG_AUS 1 0.029401 0.055892 0.53 0.6044 pengeluaran pemerintah t-1 Durbin-Watson 1.108995 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.332355 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model EKSPOR Dependent Variable X_AUS Label ekspor barang dan jasa Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 33540.54 11180.18 747.44 .0001 Error 20 299.1605 14.95802 Corrected Total 23 33832.99 Root MSE 3.86756 R-Square 0.99116 Dependent Mean 102.42322 Adj R-Sq 0.98983 Coeff Var 3.77606 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -35.7192 12.39390 -2.88 0.0092 Intercept Y_AUS 1 0.129696 0.021510 6.03 .0001 PDB Australia ER_AUS 1 7.805379 6.732206 1.16 0.2599 nilai tukar AUD thd US LX_AUS 1 0.580665 0.095514 6.08 .0001 ekspor barang jasa t-1 Durbin-Watson 1.712882 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.108055 The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model IMPOR Dependent Variable M_AUS Label impor barang dan jasa Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 32399.61 16199.80 310.26 .0001 Error 21 1096.489 52.21375 Corrected Total 23 33496.10 Root MSE 7.22591 R-Square 0.96727 Dependent Mean 108.20116 Adj R-Sq 0.96415 Coeff Var 6.67822 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -15.7618 5.666026 -2.78 0.0112 Intercept Y_AUS 1 0.144979 0.029172 4.97 .0001 PDB Australia LM_AUS 1 0.430753 0.130411 3.30 0.0034 impor barang jasa t-1 Durbin-Watson 1.232834 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.179565 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PENG_KUN Dependent Variable TE_AUS Label pengeluaran per kunjungan Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 1272078 318019.6 8.58 0.0004 Error 19 704017.8 37053.57 Corrected Total 23 2088890 Root MSE 192.49303 R-Square 0.64373 Dependent Mean 1140.99010 Adj R-Sq 0.56873 Coeff Var 16.87070 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 1098.507 552.4862 1.99 0.0614 Intercept YC_AUS 1 1.137803 7.819794 0.15 0.8858 pendapatan per kap P_AUS 1 -4.06375 2.866502 -1.42 0.1725 harga parw Indonesia LTE_AUS 1 0.436003 0.202513 2.15 0.0444 pengeluaran per kunjungan t-1 D2 1 -346.120 156.2698 -2.21 0.0392 1997 1998 Durbin-Watson 2.121818 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.12957 The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model CPI Dependent Variable CPI_AUS Label indeks harga konsumen Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 8581.245 4290.623 126.48 .0001 Error 21 712.3827 33.92299 Corrected Total 23 9192.548 Root MSE 5.82434 R-Square 0.92335 Dependent Mean 93.10248 Adj R-Sq 0.91605 Coeff Var 6.25584 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 87.31754 4.571048 19.10 .0001 Intercept R_AUS 1 -1.97865 0.389605 -5.08 .0001 deposit rate foreign curr MS_AUS 1 0.238480 0.028181 8.46 .0001 uang beredar Durbin-Watson 0.713772 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.490018 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model EXC_RATE Dependent Variable ER_AUS Label nilai tukar AUD thd US Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 0.758035 0.379017 70.30 .0001 Error 21 0.113226 0.005392 Corrected Total 23 0.854333 Root MSE 0.07343 R-Square 0.87004 Dependent Mean 1.42314 Adj R-Sq 0.85767 Coeff Var 5.15961 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 1.798428 0.080247 22.41 .0001 Intercept YC_AUS 1 -0.04994 0.004213 -11.85 .0001 pendapatan per kap CPI_AUS 1 0.011599 0.001230 9.43 .0001 indeks harga kons Durbin-Watson 0.33069 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.744165 The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DEP_RATE Dependent Variable R_AUS Label deposit rate foreign curr Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 237.7691 118.8845 16.51 .0001 Error 21 151.2530 7.202523 Corrected Total 23 386.6607 Root MSE 2.68375 R-Square 0.61120 Dependent Mean 6.73489 Adj R-Sq 0.57417 Coeff Var 39.84851 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 25.73918 4.529782 5.68 .0001 Intercept MS_AUS 1 -0.05367 0.010291 -5.22 .0001 uang beredar ER_AUS 1 -10.3317 2.985792 -3.46 0.0023 nilai tukar AUD thd US Durbin-Watson 0.534272 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.69097 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan 5. AMERIKA SERIKAT The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model JML_WMAN Dependent Variable TA_USA Label jumlah wisman asal USA Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 7 3.764E10 5.3767E9 21.56 .0001 Error 16 3.9903E9 2.4939E8 Corrected Total 23 4.084E10 Root MSE 15792.1886 R-Square 0.90414 Dependent Mean 134629.375 Adj R-Sq 0.86220 Coeff Var 11.73012 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -48591.2 59244.82 -0.82 0.4242 Intercept Y_USA 1 6.576823 4.338676 1.52 0.1491 PDB USA P_USA 1 -319.192 242.5174 -1.32 0.2067 harga parw Indonesia PS_USA 1 3215.388 876.0135 3.67 0.0021 harga parw Singapura PM_USA 1 931.7581 781.0306 1.19 0.2503 harga parw Malaysia PT_USA 1 -2462.56 843.6001 -2.92 0.0100 harga parwThailand D1 1 -33478.1 15514.01 -2.16 0.0465 1997-1998 D2 1 -27963.6 12869.49 -2.17 0.0452 2003 2006 Durbin-Watson 2.338809 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.17393 The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model KONSUMSI Dependent Variable C_USA Label konsumsi Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 60632745 30316372 19816.1 .0001 Error 21 32127.66 1529.889 Corrected Total 23 60664872 Root MSE 39.11379 R-Square 0.99947 Dependent Mean 6763.51812 Adj R-Sq 0.99942 Coeff Var 0.57831 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -485.601 75.20851 -6.46 .0001 Intercept Y_USA 1 0.488781 0.050375 9.70 .0001 PDB USA LC_USA 1 0.365742 0.066349 5.51 .0001 konsumsi t-1 Durbin-Watson 0.985281 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.367179 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model INVEST Dependent Variable I_USA Label investasi Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 3538262 884565.6 65.40 .0001 Error 19 256996.5 13526.13 Corrected Total 23 3795103 Root MSE 116.30190 R-Square 0.93228 Dependent Mean 1891.97778 Adj R-Sq 0.91803 Coeff Var 6.14711 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 48.98749 257.1379 0.19 0.8509 Intercept Y_USA 1 0.074407 0.065979 1.13 0.2735 PDB USA R_USA 1 -4.69639 20.50233 -0.23 0.8213 deposit rate foreign curr LI_USA 1 0.618938 0.297630 2.08 0.0513 investasi t-1 D3 1 -358.049 96.08690 -3.73 0.0014 2008 Durbin-Watson 1.609326 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.082744 The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PENG_PEM Dependent Variable G_USA Label pengeluaran pemerintah Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 2997582 999194.1 1728.50 .0001 Error 20 11561.38 578.0689 Corrected Total 23 3009144 Root MSE 24.04306 R-Square 0.99616 Dependent Mean 1585.35767 Adj R-Sq 0.99558 Coeff Var 1.51657 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -21.2898 30.38727 -0.70 0.4916 Intercept Y_USA 1 0.015149 0.009438 1.61 0.1242 PDB USA LG_USA 1 0.944844 0.071018 13.30 .0001 pengeluaran pemerintah t-1 D2 1 471.1831 28.98498 16.26 .0001 2008 Durbin-Watson 0.616222 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.595202 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model EKSPOR Dependent Variable X_USA Label ekspor barang dan jasa Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 2381808 793935.9 430.19 .0001 Error 20 36910.59 1845.530 Corrected Total 23 2415977 Root MSE 42.95963 R-Square 0.98474 Dependent Mean 1020.96637 Adj R-Sq 0.98245 Coeff Var 4.20774 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -562.215 132.7490 -4.24 0.0004 Intercept Y_USA 1 0.029139 0.015416 1.89 0.0733 PDB USA ER_USA 1 420.0879 102.4462 4.10 0.0006 nilai tukar SDR thd US LX_USA 1 0.737685 0.110363 6.68 .0001 ekspor barang jasa t-1 Durbin-Watson 1.520497 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.195172 The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model IMPOR Dependent Variable M_USA Label impor barang dan jasa Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 6392652 3196326 793.87 .0001 Error 21 84551.54 4026.264 Corrected Total 23 6477203 Root MSE 63.45285 R-Square 0.98695 Dependent Mean 1331.15223 Adj R-Sq 0.98570 Coeff Var 4.76676 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -435.532 148.0086 -2.94 0.0078 Intercept Y_USA 1 0.094092 0.030537 3.08 0.0057 PDB USA LM_USA 1 0.659567 0.129228 5.10 .0001 impor barang jasa t-1 Durbin-Watson 1.539724 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.224387 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PENG_KUN Dependent Variable TE_USA Label pengeluaran per kunjungan Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 2622831 655707.8 23.20 .0001 Error 19 536976.4 28261.92 Corrected Total 23 3157127 Root MSE 168.11281 R-Square 0.83006 Dependent Mean 1243.42845 Adj R-Sq 0.79428 Coeff Var 13.52010 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 185.6841 471.5884 0.39 0.6982 Intercept YC_USA 1 1.625782 9.686684 0.17 0.8685 pendapatan per kap P_USA 1 -0.32971 1.655248 -0.20 0.8442 harga parw Indonesia LTE_USA 1 0.890355 0.122703 7.26 .0001 pengeluaran per kunjungan t-1 D1 1 -268.368 142.4417 -1.88 0.0750 1997-1998 Durbin-Watson 1.804745 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.005066 The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model CPI Dependent Variable CPI_USA Label indeks harga konsumen Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 1 7250.024 7250.024 275.42 .0001 Error 22 579.1207 26.32367 Corrected Total 23 7829.145 Root MSE 5.13066 R-Square 0.92603 Dependent Mean 91.79775 Adj R-Sq 0.92267 Coeff Var 5.58909 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 13.50194 4.832671 2.79 0.0106 Intercept MS_USA 1 0.070634 0.004256 16.60 .0001 uang beredar Durbin-Watson 0.784143 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.582873 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model EXC_RATE Dependent Variable ER_USA Label nilai tukar SDR thd US Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 0.234825 0.117413 22.02 .0001 Error 21 0.111996 0.005333 Corrected Total 23 0.335920 Root MSE 0.07303 R-Square 0.67708 Dependent Mean 1.37352 Adj R-Sq 0.64632 Coeff Var 5.31686 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 1.648814 0.202016 8.16 .0001 Intercept YC_USA 1 -0.06275 0.016922 -3.71 0.0013 pendapatan per kap CPI_USA 1 0.021447 0.004632 4.63 0.0001 indeks harga kons Durbin-Watson 0.991238 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.312108 The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DEP_RATE Dependent Variable R_USA Label deposit rate foreign curr Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 70.96386 35.48193 22.57 .0001 Error 21 33.02046 1.572403 Corrected Total 23 103.9843 Root MSE 1.25395 R-Square 0.68245 Dependent Mean 5.12111 Adj R-Sq 0.65220 Coeff Var 24.48600 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 6.347190 2.739713 2.32 0.0307 Intercept MS_USA 1 -0.00328 0.001692 -1.94 0.0663 uang beredar LR_USA 1 0.443459 0.182789 2.43 0.0244 Durbin-Watson 0.965231 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.504914 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan 6. INGGRIS The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model JML_WMAN Dependent Variable TA_UK Label jumlah wisman asal UK Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 7 3.496E10 4.9944E9 14.77 .0001 Error 16 5.409E9 3.3806E8 Corrected Total 23 4.103E10 Root MSE 18386.4121 R-Square 0.86601 Dependent Mean 121405.708 Adj R-Sq 0.80740 Coeff Var 15.14460 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 53420.31 55914.77 0.96 0.3536 Intercept X_UK 1 15.92859 81.32692 0.20 0.8472 ekspor barang dan jasa P_UK 1 -139.154 391.1591 -0.36 0.7267 harga parw Indonesia PS_UK 1 3211.432 704.7777 4.56 0.0003 harga parw Singapura PM_UK 1 -1539.38 789.1452 -1.95 0.0688 harga parw Malaysia PT_UK 1 -510.469 713.3456 -0.72 0.4846 harga parw Thailand D1 1 -43052.4 21016.85 -2.05 0.0573 1998 D2 1 -33209.1 15030.23 -2.21 0.0421 2003 2006 Durbin-Watson 2.087623 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.0466 The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model KONSUMSI Dependent Variable C_UK Label konsumsi Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 1893519 946759.5 3193.72 .0001 Error 21 6225.331 296.4443 Corrected Total 23 1899744 Root MSE 17.21756 R-Square 0.99672 Dependent Mean 1080.84978 Adj R-Sq 0.99641 Coeff Var 1.59297 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -40.0290 14.56793 -2.75 0.0121 Intercept Y_UK 1 0.602397 0.028893 20.85 .0001 PDB UK LC_UK 1 0.098103 0.043736 2.24 0.0358 konsumsi t-1 Durbin-Watson 0.321084 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.724528 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model INVEST Dependent Variable I_UK Label investasi Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 123871.7 61935.87 126.86 .0001 Error 21 10252.70 488.2236 Corrected Total 23 134124.4 Root MSE 22.09578 R-Square 0.92356 Dependent Mean 301.44756 Adj R-Sq 0.91628 Coeff Var 7.32989 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 9.640769 18.93238 0.51 0.6159 Intercept Y_UK 1 0.133160 0.024116 5.52 .0001 PDB UK LI_UK 1 0.228809 0.137714 1.66 0.1115 investasi t-1 Durbin-Watson 0.885471 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.534493 The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PENG_PEM Dependent Variable G_UK Label pengeluaran pemerintah Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 212299.2 106149.6 387.10 .0001 Error 21 5758.502 274.2144 Corrected Total 23 218057.7 Root MSE 16.55942 R-Square 0.97359 Dependent Mean 342.18404 Adj R-Sq 0.97108 Coeff Var 4.83933 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -27.5712 14.00572 -1.97 0.0623 Intercept Y_UK 1 0.149186 0.023466 6.36 .0001 PDB UK LG_UK 1 0.357074 0.109617 3.26 0.0038 pengeluaran pemerintah t-1 Durbin-Watson 0.598794 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.675959 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model EKSPOR Dependent Variable X_UK Label ekspor barang dan jasa Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 328260.6 109420.2 231.45 .0001 Error 20 9455.265 472.7633 Corrected Total 23 337569.2 Root MSE 21.74312 R-Square 0.97200 Dependent Mean 442.65832 Adj R-Sq 0.96780 Coeff Var 4.91194 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -245.579 107.7976 -2.28 0.0338 Intercept Y_UK 1 0.234567 0.051037 4.60 0.0002 PDB UK ER_UK 1 291.0525 133.0896 2.19 0.0408 nilai tukar Poundsterling thd US LX_UK 1 0.266371 0.155668 1.71 0.1025 ekspor barang jasa t-1 Durbin-Watson 1.160366 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.382512 The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model IMPOR Dependent Variable M_UK Label impor barang dan jasa Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 462632.3 231316.2 479.70 .0001 Error 21 10126.37 482.2082 Corrected Total 23 472758.7 Root MSE 21.95924 R-Square 0.97858 Dependent Mean 475.55736 Adj R-Sq 0.97654 Coeff Var 4.61758 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -59.8806 20.35045 -2.94 0.0078 Intercept Y_UK 1 0.242448 0.039701 6.11 .0001 PDB UK LM_UK 1 0.274386 0.123108 2.23 0.0369 impor barang jasa t-1 Durbin-Watson 1.023392 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.417537 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PENG_KUN Dependent Variable TE_UK Label pengeluaran per kunjungan Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 1490758 372689.6 16.66 .0001 Error 19 425126.1 22375.06 Corrected Total 23 1916532 Root MSE 149.58295 R-Square 0.77810 Dependent Mean 1079.40667 Adj R-Sq 0.73139 Coeff Var 13.85789 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 217.7112 319.6654 0.68 0.5041 Intercept YC_UK 1 5.218948 6.185881 0.84 0.4093 pendapatan per kap P_UK 1 -0.43583 1.145742 -0.38 0.7079 harga parw Indonesia LTE_UK 1 0.756632 0.157653 4.80 0.0001 pengeluaran per kunjungan t-1 D3 1 -396.995 166.0814 -2.39 0.0273 2003 Durbin-Watson 2.780752 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation -0.40611 The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model CPI Dependent Variable CPI_UK Label indeks harga konsumen Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 8148.273 4074.137 89.33 .0001 Error 21 957.7849 45.60881 Corrected Total 23 9015.322 Root MSE 6.75343 R-Square 0.89482 Dependent Mean 89.81098 Adj R-Sq 0.88480 Coeff Var 7.51960 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 80.77649 5.460876 14.79 .0001 Intercept R_UK 1 -2.76241 0.552008 -5.00 .0001 deposit rate foreign curr MS_UK 1 0.516200 0.051528 10.02 .0001 uang beredar Durbin-Watson 0.554283 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.64795 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model EXC_RATE Dependent Variable ER_UK Label nilai tukar Pounsterling thd US Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 0.069273 0.034637 37.69 .0001 Error 21 0.019297 0.000919 Corrected Total 23 0.088651 Root MSE 0.03031 R-Square 0.78213 Dependent Mean 0.61085 Adj R-Sq 0.76138 Coeff Var 4.96253 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 0.770846 0.029645 26.00 .0001 Intercept YC_UK 1 -0.01545 0.002091 -7.39 .0001 pendapatan per kap CPI_UK 1 0.003174 0.000703 4.51 0.0002 indeks harga kons Durbin-Watson 0.418298 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.596204 The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DEP_RATE Dependent Variable R_UK Label deposit rate foreign curr Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 117.0607 58.53036 20.75 .0001 Error 21 59.22815 2.820388 Corrected Total 23 176.2889 Root MSE 1.67940 R-Square 0.66403 Dependent Mean 6.68704 Adj R-Sq 0.63203 Coeff Var 25.11428 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 1.545234 1.363434 1.13 0.2698 Intercept MS_UK 1 -0.00431 0.012908 -0.33 0.7417 uang beredar LR_UK 1 0.797824 0.135128 5.90 .0001 deposit rate foreign curr t-1 Durbin-Watson 1.168003 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.242338 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan 7. OUTBOUND The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model JML_OUTB Dependent Variable TDINA Label jumlah orang Indonesia ke LN Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 5 6.173E13 1.235E13 48.82 .0001 Error 18 4.552E12 2.529E11 Corrected Total 23 6.629E13 Root MSE 502888.618 R-Square 0.93132 Dependent Mean 1927228.83 Adj R-Sq 0.91225 Coeff Var 26.09387 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -1.382E7 2131855 -6.48 .0001 Intercept YINA1 1 3446.292 3094.294 1.11 0.2800 PDB Indonesia ERINA 1 -41.5345 276.9265 -0.15 0.8824 nilai tukar Rupiah thd US POPINA 1 70440.14 14483.17 4.86 0.0001 jml pddk Indonesia D1 1 1986359 1869349 1.06 0.3020 1997 D2 1 -895713 449597.4 -1.99 0.0617 1997 1998 Durbin-Watson 0.534531 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.696451 The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model JML_HAJI Dependent Variable HDINA Label jumlah jemaah haji asal Indonesia Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 1 5.786E10 5.786E10 47.82 .0001 Error 22 2.662E10 1.2099E9 Corrected Total 23 8.448E10 Root MSE 34784.0370 R-Square 0.68491 Dependent Mean 139597.833 Adj R-Sq 0.67059 Coeff Var 24.91732 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -352597 71528.49 -4.93 .0001 Intercept POPINA 1 2505.757 362.3519 6.92 .0001 jumlah penduduk Indonesia Durbin-Watson 1.19239 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.383944 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model KONSUMSI Dependent Variable CINA Label konsumsi Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 263912.3 131956.2 601.87 .0001 Error 21 4604.093 219.2425 Corrected Total 23 268516.4 Root MSE 14.80684 R-Square 0.98285 Dependent Mean 223.14519 Adj R-Sq 0.98122 Coeff Var 6.63552 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 9.548058 7.193502 1.33 0.1987 Intercept YINA 1 0.529770 0.032737 16.18 .0001 PDB Indonesia LCINA 1 0.063361 0.055691 1.14 0.2680 konsumsi t-1 Durbin-Watson 1.159727 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.419222 The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model INVEST Dependent Variable IINA Label investasi Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 106911.3 35637.10 209.13 .0001 Error 20 3408.052 170.4026 Corrected Total 23 110260.0 Root MSE 13.05383 R-Square 0.96911 Dependent Mean 112.03522 Adj R-Sq 0.96447 Coeff Var 11.65155 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -11.0577 12.50852 -0.88 0.3872 Intercept YINA 1 0.299459 0.043825 6.83 .0001 PDB Indonesia RINA 1 -2.08477 2.172672 -0.96 0.3487 deposit rate foreign curr LIINA 1 0.179690 0.128532 1.40 0.1774 investasi t-1 Durbin-Watson 0.871385 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.493795 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PENG_PEM Dependent Variable GINA Label pengeluaran pemerintah Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 8295.805 2765.268 169.28 .0001 Error 20 326.7016 16.33508 Corrected Total 23 8622.507 Root MSE 4.04167 R-Square 0.96211 Dependent Mean 32.60530 Adj R-Sq 0.95643 Coeff Var 12.39574 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -0.73839 2.099981 -0.35 0.7288 Intercept YINA 1 0.040795 0.014024 2.91 0.0087 PDB Indonesia LGINA 1 0.540373 0.126282 4.28 0.0004 pengeluaran pemerintah t-1 D4 1 -16.3002 5.528639 -2.95 0.0079 1998 Durbin-Watson 1.389018 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.170795 The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model EKSPOR Dependent Variable XINA Label ekspor barang dan jasa Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 37844.09 12614.70 111.13 .0001 Error 20 2270.204 113.5102 Corrected Total 23 40114.65 Root MSE 10.65412 R-Square 0.94341 Dependent Mean 102.45761 Adj R-Sq 0.93492 Coeff Var 10.39856 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 13.25154 30.77019 0.43 0.6713 Intercept YINA 1 0.159180 0.055554 2.87 0.0096 PDB Indonesia ERINA 1 0.000095 0.002478 0.04 0.9697 nilai tukar Rupiah thd US LXINA 1 0.271389 0.105507 2.57 0.0182 ekspor barang jasa t-1 Durbin-Watson 0.717123 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.55476 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model IMPOR Dependent Variable MINA Label impor barang dan jasa Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 44425.33 22212.67 198.80 .0001 Error 21 2346.402 111.7334 Corrected Total 23 46771.73 Root MSE 10.57040 R-Square 0.94983 Dependent Mean 95.06341 Adj R-Sq 0.94506 Coeff Var 11.11932 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 3.495441 5.251921 0.67 0.5129 Intercept YINA 1 0.173780 0.021826 7.96 .0001 PDB Indonesia LMINA 1 0.267589 0.090943 2.94 0.0078 impor barang jasa t-1 Durbin-Watson 0.739123 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.503524 The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model PENG_KUN Dependent Variable TEINA Label pengeluaran per kunjungan Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 7687696 1921924 18.32 .0001 Error 19 1992902 104889.6 Corrected Total 23 9621337 Root MSE 323.86658 R-Square 0.79413 Dependent Mean 1662.36569 Adj R-Sq 0.75079 Coeff Var 19.48227 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 332.2165 1089.537 0.30 0.7637 Intercept YCINA 1 737.0696 317.2053 2.32 0.0314 pendapatan per kap ERINA 1 -0.25106 0.145591 -1.72 0.1009 nilai tukar Rupiah thd US D1 1 2406.432 1048.816 2.29 0.0333 1997 D2 1 810.9151 278.8008 2.91 0.0090 1997 1998 Durbin-Watson 0.970603 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.510646 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model ONH Dependent Variable ONH Label ongkos naik haji Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 5 2155.493 431.0986 292.30 .0001 Error 18 26.54773 1.474874 Corrected Total 23 2181.375 Root MSE 1.21444 R-Square 0.98783 Dependent Mean 13.66478 Adj R-Sq 0.98445 Coeff Var 8.88740 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 -0.17523 0.487712 -0.36 0.7236 Intercept POIL 1 0.058938 0.019579 3.01 0.0075 POIL ERINA 1 0.001068 0.000356 3.00 0.0077 nilai tukar Rupiah thd US LONH 1 0.494261 0.145229 3.40 0.0032 ongkos naik haji t-1 D4 1 -6.20046 2.791315 -2.22 0.0394 1998 D5 1 13.74432 2.010082 6.84 .0001 1999 The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model CPI Dependent Variable CPIINA Label indeks harga konsumen Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 90764.49 30254.83 72.45 .0001 Error 20 8351.412 417.5706 Corrected Total 23 99111.37 Root MSE 20.43454 R-Square 0.91574 Dependent Mean 77.66832 Adj R-Sq 0.90310 Coeff Var 26.31001 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 3.129916 17.38774 0.18 0.8590 Intercept RINA 1 -2.78435 2.481682 -1.12 0.2752 deposit rate foreign curr MSINA 1 0.635352 0.116716 5.44 .0001 uang beredar D1 1 73.73010 10.55694 6.98 .0001 1997 Durbin-Watson 0.466526 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.563966 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model EXC_RATE Dependent Variable ERINA Label nilai tukar Rupiah thd US Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 3.1426E8 1.0475E8 289.64 .0001 Error 20 7233330 361666.5 Corrected Total 23 3.2145E8 Root MSE 601.38715 R-Square 0.97750 Dependent Mean 5253.93920 Adj R-Sq 0.97413 Coeff Var 11.44640 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 9056.008 722.4919 12.53 .0001 Intercept YCINA 1 -2473.68 218.9848 -11.30 .0001 pendapatan per kap CPIINA 1 14.17779 3.677915 3.85 0.0010 indeks harga kons D4 1 1426.221 683.9052 2.09 0.0501 1998 Durbin-Watson 0.979537 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.367469 The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DEP_RATE Dependent Variable RINA Label deposit rate foreign curr Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 49.81924 16.60641 10.04 0.0003 Error 20 33.08030 1.654015 Corrected Total 23 82.94093 Root MSE 1.28609 R-Square 0.60096 Dependent Mean 4.90934 Adj R-Sq 0.54110 Coeff Var 26.19667 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 5.555244 0.552233 10.06 .0001 Intercept MSINA 1 -0.00450 0.007802 -0.58 0.5701 uang beredar ERINA 1 -0.00011 0.000105 -1.00 0.3282 nilai tukar Rupiah thd US D4 1 7.068425 1.489881 4.74 0.0001 1998 Durbin-Watson 0.99491 Number of Observations 24 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.498149 Lampiran 4. Validasi Model Singapura Variabel Endogen Nama Variabel RMSPE U-Theil TA_SIN Jumlah kedatangan wisman Singapura 15.00 0.0336 C_SIN Konsumsi Singapura 5.91 0.0230 I_SIN Investasi Singapura 25.22 0.1107 G_SIN Pengeluaran pemerintah Singapura 9.96 0.0333 X_SIN Ekspor Singapura 16.09 0.0531 M_SIN Impor Singapura 20.26 0.0669 TE_SIN Pengeluaran wisman Singapura per kunjungan 19.31 0.1163 CPI_SIN Indeks harga konsumen Singapura 3.92 0.0195 ER_SIN Nilai tukar mata uang Singapura dengan US 6.70 0.0310 R_SIN Tingkat suku bunga Singapura 113.60 0.1698 Y_SIN Gross Domestic Product Singapura 4.68 0.0202 YC_SIN Pendapatan per kapita Singapura 4.68 0.0206 P_SIN Harga pariwisata Indonesia 3.84 0.0201 PM_SIN Harga pariwisata Malaysia 3.84 0.0198 PT_SIN Harga pariwisata Thailand 3.84 0.0195 FET_SIN Penerimaan devisa dari wisman asal Singapura 17.73 0.1076 Malaysia Variabel Endogen Nama Variabel RMSPE U-Theil TA_MLY Jumlah kedatangan wisman Malaysia 27.19 0.0587 C_MLY Konsumsi Malaysia 6.26 0.0304 I_MLY Investasi Malaysia 29.35 0.1662 G_MLY Pengeluaran pemerintah Malaysia 13.00 0.0506 X_MLY Ekspor Malaysia 10.59 0.0421 M_MLY Impor Malaysia 8.48 0.0311 TE_MLY Pengeluaran wisman Malaysia per kunjungan 15.13 0.0706 CPI_MLY Indeks harga konsumen Malaysia 7.42 0.0374 ER_MLY Nilai tukar mata uang Malaysia dengan US 11.54 0.0598 R_MLY Tingkat suku bunga Malaysia 36.89 0.1542 Y_MLY Gross Domestic Product Malaysia 5.06 0.0282 YC_MLY Pendapatan per kapita Malaysia 5.06 0.0292 P_MLY Harga pariwisata Indonesia 7.72 0.0358 PS_MLY Harga pariwisata Singapura 7.72 0.0404 PT_MLY Harga pariwisata Thailand 7.72 0.0384 FET_MLY Penerimaan devisa dari wisman asal Malaysia 33.47 0.1184 Lampiran 4. Lanjutan Jepang Variabel Endogen Nama Variabel RMSPE U-Theil TA_JPN Jumlah kedatangan wisman Jepang 15.68 0.0579 C_JPN Konsumsi Jepang 2.55 0.0105 I_JPN Investasi Jepang 11.92 0.0573 G_JPN Pengeluaran pemerintah Jepang 10.94 0.0429 X_JPN Ekspor Jepang 18.96 0.0835 M_JPN Impor Jepang 16.42 0.0896 TE_JPN Pengeluaran wisman Jepang per kunjungan 15.21 0.0679 CPI_JPN Indeks harga konsumen Jepang 3.61 0.0174 ER_JPN Nilai tukar mata uang Jepang dengan US 9.12 0.0522 R_JPN Tingkat suku bunga Jepang 741.10 0.2723 Y_JPN Gross Domestic Product Jepang 3.27 0.0153 YC_JPN Pendapatan per kapita Jepang 3.27 0.0153 P_JPN Harga pariwisata Indonesia 3.56 0.0193 PS_JPN Harga pariwisata Singapura 3.56 0.0176 PM_JPN Harga pariwisata Malaysia 3.56 0.0197 PT_JPN Harga pariwisata Thailand 3.56 0.0185 FET_JPN Penerimaan devisa dari wisman asal Jepang 24.08 0.0887 Australia Variabel Endogen Nama Variabel RMSPE U-Theil TA_AUS Jumlah kedatangan wisman Australia 16.34 0.0818 C_AUS Konsumsi Australia 3.17 0.0149 I_AUS Investasi Australia 9.50 0.0376 G_AUS Pengeluaran pemerintah Australia 2.05 0.0096 X_AUS Ekspor Australia 4.11 0.0172 M_AUS Impor Australia 7.76 0.0358 TE_AUS Pengeluaran wisman Australia per kunjungan 34.80 0.0836 CPI_AUS Indeks harga konsumen Australia 10.32 0.0392 ER_AUS Nilai tukar mata uang Australia dengan US 5.25 0.0271 R_AUS Tingkat suku bunga Australia 46.41 0.1774 Y_AUS Gross Domestic Product Australia 1.28 0.0058 YC_AUS Pendapatan per kapita Australia 1.28 0.0059 P_AUS Harga pariwisata Indonesia 8.68 0.0606 PS_AUS Harga pariwisata Singapura 8.68 0.0437 PM_AUS Harga pariwisata Malaysia 8.68 0.0548 PT_AUS Harga pariwisata Thailand 8.68 0.0485 FET_AUS Penerimaan devisa dari wisman asal Australia 21.66 0.0871 Lampiran 4. Lanjutan Amerika Serikat Variabel Endogen Nama Variabel RMSPE U-Theil TA_USA Jumlah kedatangan wisman Amerika Serikat 9.08 0.0455 C_USA Konsumsi Amerika Serikat 0.61 0.0032 I_USA Investasi Amerika Serikat 7.28 0.0354 G_USA Pengeluaran pemerintah Amerika Serikat 4.12 0.0175 X_USA Ekspor Amerika Serikat 9.64 0.0460 M_USA Impor Amerika Serikat 6.07 0.0269 TE_USA Pengeluaran wisman Amerika Serikat per kunjungan 21.51 0.0777 CPI_USA Indeks harga konsumen Amerika Serikat 5.43 0.0263 ER_USA Nilai tukar mata uang Amerika Serikat dengan SDR 7.13 0.0349 R_USA Tingkat suku bunga Amerika Serikat 66.44 0.1338 Y_USA Gross Domestic Product Amerika Serikat 1.64 0.0082 YC_USA Pendapatan per kapita Amerika Serikat 1.64 0.0082 P_USA Harga pariwisata Indonesia 5.23 0.0270 PS_USA Harga pariwisata Singapura 5.23 0.0277 PM_USA Harga pariwisata Malaysia 5.23 0.0279 PT_USA Harga pariwisata Thailand 5.23 0.0280 FET_USA Penerimaan devisa dari wisman asal Amerika Serikat 24.97 0.1046 Inggris Variabel Endogen Nama Variabel RMSPE U-Theil TA_UK Jumlah kedatangan wisman Inggris 12.97 0.0615 C_UK Konsumsi Inggris 1.69 0.0078 I_UK Investasi Inggris 8.38 0.0384 G_UK Pengeluaran pemerintah Inggris 6.88 0.0295 X_UK Ekspor Inggris 6.29 0.0285 M_UK Impor Inggris 5.49 0.0235 TE_UK Pengeluaran wisman Inggris per kunjungan 19.15 0.0843 CPI_UK Indeks harga konsumen Inggris 12.70 0.0500 ER_UK Nilai tukar mata uang Inggris dengan US 5.67 0.0284 R_UK Tingkat suku bunga Inggris 48.28 0.1842 Y_UK Gross Domestic Product Inggris 1.27 0.0060 YC_UK Pendapatan per kapita Inggris 1.27 0.0060 P_UK Harga pariwisata Indonesia 11.12 0.0718 PS_UK Harga pariwisata Singapura 11.12 0.0582 PM_UK Harga pariwisata Malaysia 11.12 0.0684 PT_UK Harga pariwisata Thailand 11.12 0.0627 FET_UK Penerimaan devisa dari wisman asal Inggris 24.55 0.0887 Lampiran 4. Lanjutan Negara Lainnya Variabel Endogen Nama Variabel RMSPE U-Theil TAO Jumlah kedatangan wisman Negara Lainnya 13.57 0.0585 TEO Pengeluaran wisman Negara Lainnya per kunjungan 13.38 0.0590 FEO Penerimaan devisa dari wisman asal Negara Lainnya 22.54 0.0921 Orang Indonesia ke Luar Negeri Variabel Endogen Nama Variabel RMSPE U-Theil TDINA Jumlah orang Indonesia ke luar negeri 81.09 0.0843 HDINA Jumlah jemaah haji asal Indonesia 33.73 0.1111 CINA Konsumsi Indonesia 6.17 0.0289 IINA Investasi Indonesia 23.56 0.0483 GINA Pengeluaran pemerintah Indonesia 22.83 0.0603 XINA Ekspor Indonesia 10.12 0.0528 MINA Impor Indonesia 10.79 0.0557 TEINA Pengeluaran wisman Indonesia per kunjungan 4.42 0.0094 ONH Ongkos naik haji 16.82 0.0714 CPIINA Indeks harga konsumen Indonesia 12.96 0.0412 ERINA Nilai tukar mata uang Indonesia dengan US 4.42 0.0090 RINA Tingkat suku bunga Indonesia 47.87 0.0945 YINA Gross Domestic Product Indonesia 35.48 0.0452 YCINA Pendapatan per kapita Indonesia 38.55 0.1151 FEINA Pengeluaran devisa dari orang Indonesia yang ke luar negeri 78.88 0.1285 FEHAJ Pengeluaran devisa dari orang Indonesia yang pergi haji 80.17 0.1684 FEDEV Pengeluaran devisa yang berasal dari wisatawan Indonesia 66.45 0.1099 Lampiran 5. Deskripsi Variabel-variabel yang Digunakan NO VARIABEL URAIAN SATUAN 1. TA_SIN Y_SIN C_SIN I_SIN G_SIN X_SIN M_SIN POP_SIN TE_SIN CPI_SIN ER_SIN R_SIN MS_SIN FA_SIN YC_SIN P_SIN PM_SIN PT_SIN FET_SIN ERI_SIN ERM_SIN ERT_SIN D1 D2 D3 Wisman yang berasal dari Singapura PDB Singapura atas dasar harga konstan Nilai konsumsi negara Singapura Nilai investasi negara Singapura Pengeluaran pemerintah Singapura Nilai ekspor negara Singapura Nilai impor negara Singapura Jumlah penduduk Singapura Rata-rata pengeluaran wisman asal Singapura di Indonesia Indek harga konsumen di Singapura Nilai tukar S terhadap US Tingkat suku bunga deposito mata uang asing Uang beredar di Singapura Nilai asset asing di Singapura Pendapatan per kapita Singapura Harga pariwisata Indonesia bagi wisman Singapura Harga pariwisata Malaysia bagi wisman Singapura Harga pariwisata Thailand bagi wisman Singapura Penerimaan devisa dari wisman Singapura Nilai tukar S terhadap Rupiah Nilai tukar S terhadap Ringgit Malaysia Nilai tukar S terhadap Baht Thailand Tahun 2006 = 1, lainnya 0 Tahun 2008 = 1, Lainnya 0 Tahun 1997 dan 1998 = 1, lainnya 0 Orang Milyar US Milyar US Milyar US Milyar US Milyar US Milyar US Juta orang US Persentase Unit Persentase Milyar US Milyar US 000 US Milyar US Unit Unit Unit Lampiran 5. Lanjutan NO VARIABEL URAIAN SATUAN 2. TA_MLY Y_MLY C_MLY I_MLY G_MLY X_MLY M_MLY POP_MLY TE_MLY CPI_MLY ER_MLY R_MLY MS_MLY FA_MLY YC_MLY P_MLY PS_MLY PT_MLY FET_MLY ERI_MLY ERS_MLY ERT_MLY D1 D2 D3 D4 Wisman yang berasal dari Malaysia PDB Malaysia atas dasar harga konstan Nilai konsumsi negara Malaysia Nilai investasi negara Malaysia Pengeluaran pemerintah Malaysia Nilai ekspor negara Malaysia Nilai impor negara Malaysia Jumlah penduduk Malaysia Rata-rata pengeluaran wisman asal Malaysia di Indonesia Indek harga konsumen di Malaysia Nilai tukar RM terhadap US Tingkat suku bunga deposito mata uang asing Uang beredar di Malaysia Nilai asset asing di Malaysia Pendapatan per kapita Malaysia Harga pariwisata Indonesia bagi wisman Malaysia Harga pariwisata Singapura bagi wisman Malaysia Harga pariwisata Thailand bagi wisman Malaysia Penerimaan devisa dari wisman Malaysia Nilai tukar RM terhadap Rupiah Nilai tukar RM terhadap Dollar Singapura Nilai tukar RM terhadap Baht Thailand Tahun 1998 = 1, lainnya 0 Tahun 1997, 1998 = 1, Lainnya 0 Tahun 1997 = 1, lainnya 0 Tahun 1986 = 1, lainnya = 0 Orang Milyar US Milyar US Milyar US Milyar US Milyar US Milyar US Juta orang US Persentase Unit Persentase Milyar US Milyar US 000 US Milyar US Unit Unit Unit Lampiran 5. Lanjutan NO VARIABEL URAIAN SATUAN 3. TA_JPN Y_JPN C_JPN I_JPN G_JPN X_JPN M_JPN POP_JPN TE_JPN CPI_JPN ER_JPN R_JPN MS_JPN FA_JPN YC_JPN P_JPN PS_JPN PM_JPN PT_JPN FET_JPN ERI_JPN ERS_JPN ERM_JPN ERT_JPN D1 D2 Wisman yang berasal dari Jepang PDB Jepang atas dasar harga konstan Nilai konsumsi negara Jepang Nilai investasi negara Jepang Pengeluaran pemerintah Jepang Nilai ekspor negara Jepang Nilai impor negara Jepang Jumlah penduduk Jepang Rata-rata pengeluaran wisman asal Jepang di Indonesia Indek harga konsumen di Jepang Nilai tukar Yen Jepang terhadap US Tingkat suku bunga deposito mata uang asing Uang beredar di Jepang Nilai asset asing di Jepang Pendapatan per kapita Jepang Harga pariwisata Indonesia bagi wisman Jepang Harga pariwisata Singapura bagi wisman Jepang Harga pariwisata Malaysia bagi wisman Jepang Harga pariwisata Thailand bagi wisman Jepang Penerimaan devisa dari wisman Jepang Nilai tukar Yen Jepang terhadap Rupiah Nilai tukar Yen Jepang terhadap Dollar Singapura Nilai tukar Yen Jepang terhadap Ringgit Malaysia Nilai tukar Yen Jepang terhadap Baht Thailand Tahun 2003 dan 2006 = 1, lainnya 0 Tahun 1991, 1992 = 1, Lainnya 0 Orang Milyar US Milyar US Milyar US Milyar US Milyar US Milyar US Juta orang US Persentase Unit Persentase Milyar US Milyar US 000 US Milyar US Unit Unit Unit Unit Lampiran 5. Lanjutan NO VARIABEL URAIAN SATUAN 4. TA_AUS Y_AUS C_AUS I_AUS G_AUS X_AUS M_AUS POP_AUS TE_AUS CPI_AUS ER_AUS R_AUS MS_AUS FA_AUS YC_AUS P_AUS PS_AUS PM_AUS PT_AUS FET_AUS ERI_AUS ERS_AUS ERM_AUS ERT_AUS D1 D2 Wisman yang berasal dari Australia PDB Australia atas dasar harga konstan Nilai konsumsi negara Australia Nilai investasi negara Australia Pengeluaran pemerintah Australia Nilai ekspor negara Australia Nilai impor negara Australia Jumlah penduduk Australia Rata-rata pengeluaran wisman asal Australia di Indonesia Indek harga konsumen di Australia Nilai tukar AUD terhadap US Tingkat suku bunga deposito mata uang asing Uang beredar di Australia Nilai asset asing di Australia Pendapatan per kapita Australia Harga pariwisata Indonesia bagi wisman Australia Harga pariwisata Singapura bagi wisman Australia Harga pariwisata Malaysia bagi wisman Australia Harga pariwisata Thailand bagi wisman Australia Penerimaan devisa dari wisman Australia Nilai tukar AUD terhadap Rupiah Nilai tukar AUD terhadap Dollar Singapura Nilai tukar AUD terhadap Ringgit Malaysia Nilai tukar AUD terhadap Baht Thailand Tahun 2003, 2006 = 1, lainnya 0 Tahun 1997, 1998 = 1, Lainnya 0 Orang Milyar US Milyar US Milyar US Milyar US Milyar US Milyar US Juta orang US Persentase Unit Persentase Milyar US Milyar US 000 US Milyar US Unit Unit Unit Unit Lampiran 5. Lanjutan NO VARIABEL URAIAN SATUAN 5. TA_USA Y_USA C_USA I_USA G_USA X_USA M_USA POP_USA TE_USA CPI_USA ER_USA R_USA MS_USA FA_USA YC_USA P_USA PS_USA PM_USA PT_USA FET_USA ERI_USA ERS_USA ERM_USA ERT_USA D1 D2 D3 Wisman yang berasal dari Amerika Serikat PDB Amerika Serikat atas dasar harga konstan Nilai konsumsi negara Amerika Serikat Nilai investasi negara Amerika Serikat Pengeluaran pemerintah Amerika Serikat Nilai ekspor negara Amerika Serikat Nilai impor negara Amerika Serikat Jumlah penduduk Amerika Serikat Rata-rata pengeluaran wisman asal Amerika Serikat di indonesia Indek harga konsumen di Amerika Serikat Nilai tukar SDR terhadap USD Tingkat suku bunga deposito mata uang asing Uang beredar di Amerika Serikat Nilai asset asing di Amerika Serikat Pendapatan per kapita Amerika Serikat Harga pariwisata indonesia bagi wisman Amerika Serikat Harga pariwisata Singapura bagi wisman Amerika Serikat Harga pariwisata Malaysia bagi wisman Amerika Serikat Harga pariwisata Thailand bagi wisman Amerika Serikat Penerimaan devisa dari wisman Amerika Serikat Nilai tukar USD terhadap Rupiah Nilai tukar USD terhadap Dollar Singapura Nilai tukar USD terhadap Ringgit Malaysia Nilai tukar USD terhadap Baht Thailand Tahun 1998 = 1, lainnya 0 Tahun 2003 dan 2006 = 1, lainnya 0 Tahun 2008 = 1, lainnya 0 Orang Milyar US Milyar US Milyar US Milyar US Milyar US Milyar US Juta orang US Persentase Unit Persentase Milyar US Milyar US 000 US Milyar US Unit Unit Unit Unit Lampiran 5. Lanjutan NO VARIABEL URAIAN SATUAN 6. TA_UK Y_UK C_UK I_UK G_UK X_UK M_UK POP_UK TE_UK CPI_UK ER_UK R_UK MS_UK FA_UK YC_UK P_UK PS_UK PM_UK PT_UK FET_UK ERI_UK ERS_UK ERM_UK ERT_UK D1 D2 D3 Wisman yang berasal dari UK PDB UK atas dasar harga konstan Nilai konsumsi negara UK Nilai investasi negara UK Pengeluaran pemerintah UK Nilai ekspor negara UK Nilai impor negara UK Jumlah penduduk UK Rata-rata pengeluaran wisman asal UK di Indonesia Indek harga konsumen di UK Nilai tukar Poundsterling terhadap US Tingkat suku bunga deposito mata uang asing Uang beredar di UK Nilai asset asing di UK Pendapatan per kapita UK Harga pariwisata Indonesia bagi wisman UK Harga pariwisata Singapura bagi wisman UK Harga pariwisata Malaysia bagi wisman UK Harga pariwisata Thailand bagi wisman UK Penerimaan devisa dari wisman UK Nilai tukar Poundsterling terhadap Rupiah Nilai tukar Poundsterling terhadap Dollar Singapura Nilai tukar Poundsterling terhadap Ringgit Malaysia Nilai tukar Poundsterling terhadap Baht Thailand Tahun 1998 = 1, lainnya 0 Tahun 2003, 2006 = 1, Lainnya 0 Tahun 2003 = 1, lainnya 0 Orang Milyar US Milyar US Milyar US Milyar US Milyar US Milyar US Juta orang US Persentase Unit Persentase Milyar US Milyar US 000 US Milyar US Unit Unit Unit Unit Lampiran 5. Lanjutan NO VARIABEL URAIAN SATUAN 7. TAO POIL TEO D1 D2 D3 Wisman yang berasal dari selain 6 negara utama Harga minyak mentah dunia Rata-rata pengeluaran wisman selain dari 6 negara utama di Indonesia Tahun 1998 = 1, Lainnya = 0 Tahun 2003, 2006 = 1, lainnya = 0 Tahun 1991 = 1, lainnya = 0 Orang US US 8. TDINA YINA CINA IINA GINA XINA MINA POPINA TEINA CPIINA ERINA RINA MSINA FAINA YCINA FEINA D1 D2 Orang Indonesia yang pergi ke luar negeri PDB Indonesia atas dasar harga konstan Nilai konsumsi Indonesia Nilai investasi Indonesia Pengeluaran pemerintah Indonesia Nilai ekspor Indonesia Nilai impor Indonesia Jumlah penduduk Indonesia Rata-rata pengeluaran orang Indonesia yang jalan ke luar negeri Indek harga konsumen di Indonesia Nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap US Tingkat suku bunga deposito mata uang asing Uang beredar di Indonesia Jumlah asset asing di Indonesia Pendapatan per kapita Indonesia Nilai devisa yang dikeluarkan orang Indonesia yang jalan ke LN Tahun 1998 = 1, lainnya 0 Tahun 1997 dan 1998 = 1, lainnya 0 Orang Milyar US Milyar US Milyar US Milyar US Milyar US Milyar US Juta orang US Persentase Unit Persentase Milyar US Milyar US 000 US Milyar US 9. HDINA ONH FEHAJ D1 Orang Indonesia yang pergi naik haji Ongkos Naik Haji Jumlah pengeluaran orang Indonesia yang pergi haji Tahun 1997 dan 1998 = 1, lainnya 0 Orang US Milyar US ABSTRACT ADI LUMAKSONO. The Economic Impact of International Tourism in Indonesian Economy: An Econometric and Input-Output Analysis Approach. D.S. PRIYARSONO, as Chairman; KUNTJORO and RUSMAN HERIAWAN, as Members of the Advisory Committee Tourism has played an important role in the Indonesian economy especially inbound tourists which give foreign exchange earnings. On the other hand, outbound tourists bring dollars outside Indonesia. It will have an impact on tourism balance which is still surplus in the case of Indonesia. In this study found that the surplus of tourism balance tends to decrease where the increase of outbound tourists and their expenditure was faster than the increase of inbound tourist and their expenditure. By using econometric models, this study will also identify the variables which influence inbound and outbound tourists both the number of arrivaldeparture and their average expenditure per visit. GDP was the most influenced variable beside Indonesian tourism price and neighbour countries’ tourism price as competitors of Indonesian tourism. Simulation will be applied to know the impact of economic growth and monetary policy on the flow of foreign exchange through international tourism. The results of this simulation will be used to know the economic impact of inbound tourists such as tourism balance, added value, indirect tax, and wages salaries as well as employment by using Input-Output Model. It shows that economic growth of tourists’ country of origin will give a higher impact to the Indonesian economy compared to the both exchange rate and monetary policy. Key words: Inbound-outbound tourist, economic impact, econometric model, input-output analysis

I. PENDAHULUAN

1.1. Latar Belakang

Sektor pariwisata memegang peranan penting dalam perekonomian Indonesia, baik sebagai salah satu sumber penerimaan devisa maupun penciptaan lapangan kerja serta kesempatan berusaha. Pariwisata merupakan salah satu sektor yang memberikan kontribusi terbesar dalam perolehan devisa negara. Seperti diungkapkan oleh presiden Republik Indonesia Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono dalam Rakortas di Tampak Siring, Bali pada tahun 2005 yang lalu bahwa selain pendapatan pajak, bea cukai, BUMN, dan Migas, pariwisata juga menjadi andalan pendapatan negara. Bahan kimia 3.3 Kertas dan barang dari kertas

4.5 Kayu olahan

3.3 Tekstil 4.9 Alat listrik 6.2 Pakaian jadi 7.2 Pariwisata 8.8 Karet olahan 9.0 Minyak klp sawit 14.7 Minyak gas bumi 34.5 Makanan olahan 3.6 Sumber: Badan Pusat Statistik, 2008 diolah Gambar 1. Distribusi Penerimaan Devisa Menurut Komoditi Tahun 2008 Pariwisata dapat memberikan sumbangan kepada pemulihan kepercayaan investasi asing kembali masuk ke Indonesia. Jika aman, pariwisata akan berkembang yang selanjutnya dapat mendorong investasi asing dan memacu kembali pertumbuhan dunia usaha di Indonesia. Selama ini sektor pariwisata masuk dalam kelompok sepuluh besar penyumbang ekspor di Indonesia. Dari sepuluh komoditi utama yaitu: 1 minyak dan gas bumi, 2 minyak kelapa sawit, 3 karet olahan, 4 pakaian jadi, 5 alat listrik, 6 tekstil, 7 kertas dan barang dari kertas, 8 makanan olahan, 9 kayu olahan, dan 10 bahan kimia, ternyata pariwisata yang merupakan penerimaan devisa yang dibawa oleh wisatawan mancenagara menempati urutan yang keenam pada tahun 2006. Peningkatan ekspor barang dan jasa pada tahun 2006 sampai tahun 2008 terus terjadi, demikian halnya dengan pariwisata. Peningkatan devisa dari sektor pariwisata lebih cepat dibandingkan dengan ekspor barang dan jasa lainnya. Sehingga urutan penerimaan devisa sektor pariwisata terus menunjukkan adanya peningkatan. Pada tahun 2007 sektor ini menempati posisi terbesar kelima dibandingkan dengan ekspor lainnya, dan terus meningkat menjadi urutan keempat pada tahun 2008. Hal ini tentu menggembirakan bahwa sektor pariwisata merupakan salah satu sektor andalan dalam pemasukan devisa. Apabila dari 11 komoditi di atas termasuk pariwisata dijumlahkan maka sumbangan pariwisata terhadap total ekspor jasa pada tahun 2006 mencapai 46.67 persen atau 4.02 persen terhadap total ekspor barang dan jasa. Pada tahun 2007 ekspor jasa meningkat lebih lambat dibandingkan ekspor sektor pariwisata sehingga kontribusi sektor ini masih mengalami peningkatan. Namun demikian pertumbuhan ekspor barang lebih cepat dibandingkan dengan ekspor jasa maupun pariwisata sehingga kontribusi sektor pariwisata terhadap total ekspor barang dan jasa mengalami penurunan pada tahun 2007, yaitu dari 4.02 persen menjadi 3.97 persen. Selanjutnya pada tahun 2008, kontribusi sektor pariwisata terhadap total ekspor jasa sudah melebihi separuhnya 52.84 persen dan terhadap total ekspor barang dan jasa mencapai 4.56 persen, seperti terlihat dalam Tabel 1.