Nilai Rata – rata Kesalahan Mean Square Error

4.3. Nilai Rata – rata Kesalahan Mean Square Error

MSE = 1. Maka untuk α = 0,1 MSE = = = 31.779.417.200.903.000.000.000 2. Maka untuk α = 0,2 MSE = = = 20.254.417.547.321.900.000.000 3. Maka untuk α = 0,3 MSE = = = 18.191.513.325.042.300.000.000 Universitas Sumatera Utara 4. Maka untuk α = 0,4 MSE = = = 15.917.127.386.007.200.000.000 5. Maka untuk α = 0,5 MSE = = = 15.500.994.644.964.100.000.000 6. Maka untuk α = 0,6 MSE = = = 15.861.415.063.617.500.000 7. Maka untuk α = 0,7 MSE = = = 16.862.058.590.568.800.000.000 Universitas Sumatera Utara 8. Maka untuk α = 0,8 MSE = = = 18.462.175.751.880.200.000.000 9. Maka untuk α = 0,9 MSE = = = 20.735.754.770.254.400.000.000 Untuk menentukan nilai α yang optimal, maka diambil dari nilai MSE yang paling minimum yaitu MSE pada α = 0,5. Universitas Sumatera Utara Tabel 4.12. Nilai Pemulusan Eksponensial Periode Saldo Rp α = 0,1 α = 0,2 Forecast Forecast 1 1.309.625.167.666,77 - - - - 2 1.232.536.432.554,87 - - - - 3 1.241.084.363.541,47 1.294.207.420.644,39 2.822.059.195.960.120.000.000 1.278.789.673.622,01 1.421.690.408.269.690.000.000 4 1.187.011.257.648,35 1.282.811.921.872,69 9.177.767.265.824.190.000.000 1.260.624.000.185,32 5.418.835.863.813.980.000.000 5 1.257.869.152.259,79 1.262.349.671.105,67 20.075.049.128.297.900.000 1.226.587.141.362,83 978.564.205.757.323.000.000 6 1.214.445.678.449,05 1.259.193.442.772,10 2.002.362.411.911.540.000.000 1.231.563.674.212,44 293.025.778.955.426.000.000 7 1.286.450.163.347,43 1.247.938.960.154,64 1.483.112.771.356.190.000.000 1.218.431.484.833,79 4.626.540.626.742.430.000.000 8 1.374.588.841.075,17 1.252.888.793.397,12 14.810.901.604.840.000.000.000 1.238.669.245.335,41 18.474.136.506.059.700.000.000 9 1.377.233.338.027,13 1.274.861.507.568,58 10.479.991.671.434.900.000.000 1.288.788.119.868,03 7.822.556.615.211.460.000.000 10 1.421.809.308.810,00 1.294.185.578.772,91 16.287.816.468.579.100.000.000 1.325.354.027.197,97 9.303.621.350.855.970.000.000 11 1.562.795.646.229,35 1.319.583.748.197,54 59.152.027.344.233.700.000.000 1.368.661.768.635,45 37.687.962.429.643.800.000.000 12 1.753.564.055.381,30 1.369.375.788.521,49 147.600.624.392.745.000.000.000 1.454.899.159.730,16 89.200.719.894.308.000.000.000 13 1.834.237.895.841,06 1.449.795.221.591,35 147.796.169.784.267.000.000.000 1.590.714.313.151,52 59.303.735.325.950.000.000.000 14 1.773.409.139.971,69 1.534.107.418.807,79 57.265.313.752.002.900.000.000 1.716.419.537.214,29 3.247.814.822.446.800.000.000 15 1.782.879.477.202,94 1.593.235.852.149,57 35.964.704.523.383.000.000.000 1.777.252.112.611,78 31.667.232.241.859.600.000 16 1.817.626.388.093,57 1.644.825.683.480,88 29.860.083.514.642.100.000.000 1.819.819.376.853,07 4.809.199.699.296.560.000 17 1.875.032.542.923,48 1.694.943.366.974,59 32.432.111.293.951.000.000.000 1.859.483.594.337,74 241.769.802.121.849.000.000 18 1.942.648.583.437,74 1.748.246.751.781,66 37.792.072.151.237.700.000.000 1.906.156.867.210,13 1.331.645.353.236.210.000.000 Universitas Sumatera Utara 19 1.928.112.409.763,38 1.806.213.559.489,66 14.859.329.698.053.800.000.000 1.961.829.205.082,70 1.136.822.286.604.870.000.000 20 1.879.963.264.481,32 1.851.623.789.237,75 803.125.857.080.741.000.000 1.990.877.806.985,60 12.302.035.738.933.600.000.000 21 2.000.901.948.152,24 1.879.541.132.482,55 14.728.447.580.012.500.000.000 1.987.698.638.201,74 174.327.393.648.914.000.000 22 1.929.675.298.230,68 1.926.346.138.565,01 11.083.304.079.543.000.000 2.029.730.028.699,63 10.010.949.089.213.300.000.000 23 2.031.843.737.356,38 1.950.758.421.603,36 6.574.828.430.767.350.000.000 2.026.986.335.427,75 23.594.353.496.252.600.000 24 2.301.298.140.603,40 1.990.755.227.455,83 96.436.900.906.176.400.000.000 2.062.205.305.896,15 57.165.383.608.349.400.000.000 25 2.218.822.682.340,98 2.077.454.405.944,75 19.984.989.571.240.600.000.000 2.191.312.745.553,14 756.796.622.070.998.000.000 26 2.101.835.639.324,57 2.133.424.086.214,88 997.829.976.941.646.000.000 2.245.350.739.430,66 20.596.583.958.459.900.000.000 27 2.179.585.623.051,96 2.156.216.104.591,66 546.134.393.066.533.000.000 2.232.079.116.022,12 2.755.566.804.207.950.000.000 28 2.085.327.285.783,91 2.189.683.831.569,65 10.890.288.648.332.000.000.000 2.249.475.531.463,71 26.944.646.559.754.400.000.000 29 2.194.264.026.611,27 2.197.840.040.883,05 12.787.878.071.943.000.000 2.220.110.306.102,63 668.030.163.545.590.000.000 30 2.101.519.761.225,70 2.225.108.791.041,37 15.274.248.290.779.600.000.000 2.239.499.937.389,74 19.038.529.014.259.600.000.000 31 2.164.270.437.104,46 2.228.339.177.948,21 4.104.803.553.302.970.000.000 2.213.002.158.828,12 2.374.780.702.152.490.000.000 32 2.134.385.442.655,94 2.242.237.732.351,27 11.632.116.392.524.300.000.000 2.216.684.554.996,09 6.773.143.891.977.420.000.000 33 2.286.247.515.411,65 2.246.738.889.575,57 1.560.931.515.455.260.000.000 2.204.990.726.048,52 6.602.665.817.603.580.000.000 34 2.302.567.169.597,70 2.279.633.707.009,21 525.943.706.297.905.000.000 2.255.427.293.288,66 2.222.167.938.431.780.000.000 35 2.357.357.294.388,94 2.309.608.578.051,68 2.279.939.911.855.770.000.000 2.295.467.366.881,68 3.830.363.126.853.330.000.000 36 2.868.540.344.551,54 2.344.775.834.469,80 274.329.262.021.166.000.000.000 2.343.293.056.006,36 275.884.714.124.066.000.000.000 Jumlah - 1.080.500.184.830.700.000.000.000 - 688.650.196.608.944.000.000.000 Universitas Sumatera Utara Periode Saldo Rp α = 0,3 α = 0,4 Forecast Forecast 1 1.309.625.167.666,77 - - - - 2 1.232.536.432.554,87 - - - - 3 1.241.084.363.541,47 1.256.433.940.439,56 235.609.510.950.343.000.000 1.247.954.179.577,25 47.194.372.365.460.400.000 4 1.187.011.257.648,35 1.234.117.535.769,36 2.219.001.438.413.690.000.000 1.230.124.129.130,72 1.858.719.687.455.490.000.000 5 1.257.869.152.259,79 1.186.499.068.914,20 5.093.688.796.757.100.000.000 1.182.200.463.761,20 5.725.750.419.097.360.000.000 6 1.214.445.678.449,05 1.212.104.064.423,13 5.483.156.246.365.470.000 1.222.403.986.939,26 63.334.674.025.390.700.000 7 1.286.450.163.347,43 1.198.807.173.198,40 7.681.293.722.262.500.000.000 1.207.812.902.686,06 6.183.818.764.324.270.000.000 8 1.374.588.841.075,17 1.243.382.256.550,72 17.215.167.822.570.500.000.000 1.261.224.944.395,69 12.851.373.070.356.000.000.000 9 1.377.233.338.027,13 1.329.915.846.637,21 2.238.944.991.435.490.000.000 1.355.000.256.625,63 494.309.908.605.899.000.000 10 1.421.809.308.810,00 1.378.162.578.175,85 1.905.037.095.049.910.000.000 1.394.009.140.101,90 772.849.380.198.923.000.000 11 1.562.795.646.229,35 1.432.477.264.856,58 16.982.880.523.617.900.000.000 1.441.028.986.447,69 14.827.119.434.382.600.000.000 12 1.753.564.055.381,30 1.555.411.918.105,30 39.264.269.507.046.600.000.000 1.567.670.052.645,62 34.556.580.253.091.300.000.000 13 1.834.237.895.841,06 1.747.944.636.043,18 7.446.526.686.544.100.000.000 1.765.095.658.771,84 4.780.648.946.936.720.000.000 14 1.773.409.139.971,69 1.898.456.365.490,41 15.636.808.609.929.300.000.000 1.898.862.892.802,60 15.738.644.099.357.900.000.000 15 1.782.879.477.202,94 1.924.455.609.101,24 20.043.801.123.285.800.000.000 1.888.016.092.844,33 11.053.707.948.524.700.000.000 16 1.817.626.388.093,57 1.930.135.588.938,45 12.658.320.274.754.600.000.000 1.873.350.402.184,73 3.105.165.746.431.600.000.000 17 1.875.032.542.923,48 1.943.641.097.517,03 4.707.133.763.415.740.000.000 1.881.392.934.262,69 40.454.577.987.909.500.000 18 1.942.648.583.437,74 1.978.527.719.705,05 1.287.312.419.288.470.000.000 1.920.010.522.287,63 512.481.812.636.301.000.000 Universitas Sumatera Utara 19 1.928.112.409.763,38 2.032.962.666.621,68 10.993.576.363.252.500.000.000 1.980.809.209.689,75 2.776.952.722.479.550.000.000 20 1.879.963.264.481,32 2.041.477.563.288,97 26.086.868.719.327.100.000.000 1.984.962.098.014,70 11.024.755.043.370.700.000.000 21 2.000.901.948.152,24 2.002.224.088.594,02 1.748.055.347.781.250.000 1.938.841.871.465,83 3.851.453.118.323.590.000.000 22 1.929.675.298.230,68 2.055.434.103.556,28 15.815.277.116.922.500.000.000 2.009.568.959.727,45 6.382.997.147.359.730.000.000 23 2.031.843.737.356,38 2.027.452.728.455,55 19.280.959.167.162.500.000 1.976.662.669.712,35 3.044.950.226.335.310.000.000 24 2.301.298.140.603,40 2.075.438.108.932,69 51.012.753.906.295.300.000.000 2.039.033.177.170,41 68.782.911.044.510.000.000.000 25 2.218.822.682.340,98 2.280.950.990.165,06 3.859.926.633.083.650.000.000 2.275.899.772.082,68 3.257.794.173.381.820.000.000 26 2.101.835.639.324,57 2.326.575.479.307,30 50.507.995.675.464.700.000.000 2.299.255.118.604,48 38.974.450.799.149.000.000.000 27 2.179.585.623.051,96 2.258.512.667.578,71 6.229.478.357.727.810.000.000 2.201.204.219.137,04 467.363.696.689.650.000.000 28 2.085.327.285.783,91 2.264.708.446.060,73 32.177.600.662.257.200.000.000 2.212.206.909.540,67 16.098.438.924.658.200.000.000 29 2.194.264.026.611,27 2.195.045.070.731,17 610.029.917.232.883.000 2.135.541.802.433,35 3.448.299.612.401.850.000.000 30 2.101.519.761.225,70 2.226.201.767.345,31 15.545.602.650.011.600.000.000 2.187.057.433.872,69 7.316.693.441.863.790.000.000 31 2.164.270.437.104,46 2.174.600.608.904,14 106.712.449.410.842.000.000 2.132.560.703.720,57 1.005.507.191.277.370.000.000 32 2.134.385.442.655,94 2.186.036.731.333,24 2.667.855.622.026.290.000.000 2.158.175.870.769,64 565.984.469.832.928.000.000 33 2.286.247.515.411,65 2.169.060.818.673,44 13.732.721.892.413.500.000.000 2.144.464.465.962,06 20.102.433.111.226.200.000.000 34 2.302.567.169.597,70 2.262.406.667.830,00 1.612.865.902.233.530.000.000 2.259.405.374.706,92 1.862.940.538.194.120.000.000 35 2.357.357.294.388,94 2.321.552.371.587,44 1.281.992.496.821.650.000.000 2.318.134.567.716,66 1.538.422.287.608.140.000.000 36 2.868.540.344.551,54 2.386.630.284.355,46 232.237.306.118.189.000.000.000 2.380.618.393.334,13 238.067.830.479.805.000.000.000 Jumlah - 618.511.453.051.438.000.000.000 - 541.182.331.124.245.000.000.000 Universitas Sumatera Utara Periode Saldo Rp α = 0,5 α = 0,6 Forecast Forecast 1 1.309.625.167.666,77 - - - - 2 1.232.536.432.554,87 - - - - 3 1.241.084.363.541,47 1.232.536.432.554,87 73.067.124.151.669.800.000 1.217.118.685.532,49 574.353.722.430.107.000.000 4 1.187.011.257.648,35 1.221.812.179.763,50 1.211.104.180.064.390.000.000 1.218.125.554.502,98 968.099.468.758.168.000.000 5 1.257.869.152.259,79 1.169.876.056.617,02 7.742.784.880.796.810.000.000 1.161.664.097.720,37 9.255.412.518.932.340.000.000 6 1.214.445.678.449,05 1.232.033.720.699,68 309.339.230.209.890.000.000 1.246.784.715.742,95 1.045.813.333.096.550.000.000 7 1.286.450.163.347,43 1.210.608.520.799,63 5.751.954.744.348.310.000.000 1.212.286.243.199,74 5.500.287.051.672.790.000.000 8 1.374.588.841.075,17 1.278.215.995.135,35 9.287.725.434.539.730.000.000 1.293.949.266.160,63 6.502.741.042.397.160.000.000 9 1.377.233.338.027,13 1.385.315.083.500,04 65.314.609.888.951.200.000 1.410.082.086.094,91 1.079.040.249.620.550.000.000 10 1.421.809.308.810,00 1.412.052.791.936,96 95.189.621.493.972.200.000 1.419.059.165.419,64 7.563.288.667.534.670.000 11 1.562.795.646.229,35 1.454.608.326.351,60 11.704.496.182.330.900.000.000 1.458.929.365.189,74 10.788.204.336.999.800.000.000 12 1.753.564.055.381,30 1.598.033.792.989,21 24.189.662.519.752.500.000.000 1.621.128.981.759,47 17.539.048.725.220.300.000.000 13 1.834.237.895.841,06 1.815.849.032.110,60 338.150.309.297.516.000.000 1.855.003.010.602,12 431.189.991.040.055.000.000 14 1.773.409.139.971,69 1.935.405.438.168,38 26.242.800.629.430.900.000.000 1.952.713.439.889,16 32.150.031.968.895.000.000.000 15 1.782.879.477.202,94 1.879.173.898.231,63 9.272.615.521.249.710.000.000 1.852.701.405.674,53 4.875.101.695.491.500.000.000 16 1.817.626.388.093,57 1.848.145.160.913,70 931.395.494.446.862.000.000 1.819.518.669.224,67 3.580.727.879.098.060.000 17 1.875.032.542.923,48 1.858.818.466.547,16 262.896.272.737.069.000.000 1.842.715.615.333,62 1.044.383.808.848.140.000.000 18 1.942.648.583.437,74 1.908.594.928.172,04 1.159.651.436.955.250.000.000 1.906.282.390.700,53 1.322.499.974.200.040.000.000 Universitas Sumatera Utara 19 1.928.112.409.763,38 1.980.264.487.780,38 2.719.839.241.491.030.000.000 1.986.342.378.176,61 3.390.729.221.405.560.000.000 20 1.879.963.264.481,32 1.974.241.727.922,44 8.888.428.668.819.130.000.000 1.965.978.801.657,56 7.398.672.635.716.410.000.000 21 2.000.901.948.152,24 1.913.054.563.136,13 7.717.163.054.167.910.000.000 1.891.309.753.994,13 12.010.449.020.388.300.000.000 22 1.929.675.298.230,68 2.010.423.630.946,77 6.520.293.236.428.860.000.000 2.020.404.390.548,48 8.231.768.192.811.220.000.000 23 2.031.843.737.356,38 1.961.158.827.279,24 4.996.356.512.613.390.000.000 1.948.566.673.228,65 6.935.069.409.733.280.000.000 24 2.301.298.140.603,40 2.043.140.183.225,92 66.645.530.957.314.800.000.000 2.052.873.870.409,05 61.714.618.021.594.500.000.000 25 2.218.822.682.340,98 2.330.265.813.992,22 12.419.571.592.235.800.000.000 2.385.337.457.955,38 27.727.170.497.913.100.000.000 26 2.101.835.639.324,57 2.312.329.845.074,17 44.307.810.654.155.700.000.000 2.309.306.927.801,17 43.044.335.542.142.100.000.000 27 2.179.585.623.051,96 2.167.482.019.144,95 146.497.227.537.735.000.000 2.124.183.262.991,14 3.069.421.500.308.780.000.000 28 2.085.327.285.783,91 2.192.608.451.434,94 11.509.248.503.444.100.000.000 2.179.818.312.574,44 8.928.554.143.928.110.000.000 29 2.194.264.026.611,27 2.101.376.015.143,64 8.628.182.674.409.910.000.000 2.075.526.147.558,01 14.098.683.922.066.000.000.000 30 2.101.519.761.225,70 2.183.492.464.558,25 6.719.524.091.645.500.000.000 2.193.091.899.909,54 8.385.456.583.132.400.000.000 31 2.164.270.437.104,46 2.113.970.202.039,58 2.530.113.647.581.950.000.000 2.101.031.267.435,72 3.999.192.580.391.310.000.000 32 2.134.385.442.655,94 2.156.227.702.085,21 477.084.296.975.364.000.000 2.161.778.235.058,82 750.365.075.627.060.000.000 33 2.286.247.515.411,65 2.138.917.766.402,91 21.706.054.942.979.800.000.000 2.136.532.949.276,72 22.414.451.312.970.600.000.000 34 2.302.567.169.597,70 2.285.319.274.301,30 297.489.892.155.624.000.000 2.313.955.088.474,96 129.684.696.354.949.000.000 35 2.357.357.294.388,94 2.338.471.365.739,53 356.678.300.950.427.000.000 2.351.951.489.467,14 29.222.726.852.523.300.000 36 2.868.540.344.551,54 2.397.573.464.354,88 221.809.802.242.179.000.000.000 2.406.000.708.222,38 213.942.915.175.510.000.000.000 Jumlah - 527.033.817.928.781.000.000.000 - 539.288.112.162.995.000.000.000 Universitas Sumatera Utara Periode Saldo Rp α = 0,7 α = 0,8 Forecast Forecast 1 1.309.625.167.666,77 - - - - 2 1.232.536.432.554,87 - - - - 3 1.241.084.363.541,47 1.201.700.938.510,11 1.551.054.167.200.760.000.000 1.186.283.191.487,73 3.003.168.458.463.640.000.000 4 1.187.011.257.648,35 1.219.064.253.349,18 1.027.394.533.397.630.000.000 1.224.628.276.302,10 1.415.040.092.396.390.000.000 5 1.257.869.152.259,79 1.155.714.457.428,55 10.435.581.676.063.400.000.000 1.150.177.006.098,88 11.597.598.344.743.000.000.000 6 1.214.445.678.449,05 1.264.549.460.359,41 2.510.388.961.721.150.000.000 1.284.145.507.660,72 4.858.066.192.135.410.000.000 7 1.286.450.163.347,43 1.210.278.396.319,34 5.802.138.092.181.740.000.000 1.203.209.822.169,41 6.928.954.399.432.810.000.000 8 1.374.588.841.075,17 1.308.242.247.657,02 4.401.870.458.192.870.000.000 1.322.370.518.606,14 2.726.753.201.479.960.000.000 9 1.377.233.338.027,13 1.429.775.021.784,55 2.760.628.532.064.720.000.000 1.445.169.803.462,42 4.615.363.335.839.860.000.000 10 1.421.809.308.810,00 1.417.374.038.641,18 19.671.621.470.468.500.000 1.409.141.154.051,96 160.482.144.973.529.000.000 11 1.562.795.646.229,35 1.458.995.365.953,41 10.774.498.185.364.300.000.000 1.458.600.559.072,25 10.856.616.187.676.700.000.000 12 1.753.564.055.381,30 1.641.900.989.798,33 12.468.640.215.386.800.000.000 1.662.610.674.976,18 8.272.517.407.118.620.000.000 13 1.834.237.895.841,06 1.886.676.650.408,30 2.749.822.980.563.460.000.000 1.912.118.915.857,49 6.065.453.278.798.910.000.000 14 1.773.409.139.971,69 1.956.424.664.943,63 33.494.682.380.755.800.000.000 1.949.702.279.523,59 31.079.271.053.067.500.000.000 15 1.782.879.477.202,94 1.817.670.211.174,43 1.210.395.170.275.280.000.000 1.779.982.399.122,42 8.393.061.404.604.100.000 16 1.817.626.388.093,57 1.796.752.857.569,61 435.704.276.534.617.000.000 1.784.139.257.619,91 1.121.387.907.360.150.000.000 17 1.875.032.542.923,48 1.836.718.014.612,39 1.468.003.079.701.270.000.000 1.839.094.329.917,96 1.291.555.154.030.430.000.000 18 1.942.648.583.437,74 1.911.328.598.513,89 980.941.455.630.029.000.000 1.919.402.897.770,13 540.361.902.157.493.000.000 Universitas Sumatera Utara 19 1.928.112.409.763,38 1.994.920.940.545,69 4.463.379.785.290.900.000.000 2.002.403.878.205,18 5.519.222.283.238.280.000.000 20 1.879.963.264.481,32 1.956.480.153.201,55 5.854.834.259.424.360.000.000 1.944.222.650.892,44 4.129.268.741.933.960.000.000 21 2.000.901.948.152,24 1.871.711.484.660,99 16.690.175.857.083.400.000.000 1.854.546.215.026,04 21.420.000.618.908.200.000.000 22 1.929.675.298.230,68 2.037.439.833.743,59 11.613.195.114.313.300.000.000 2.060.727.963.116,23 17.174.800.973.605.000.000.000 23 2.031.843.737.356,38 1.934.734.511.331,08 9.430.201.779.233.140.000.000 1.916.723.943.588,39 13.252.566.917.184.700.000.000 24 2.301.298.140.603,40 2.066.047.832.670,74 55.342.707.382.412.100.000.000 2.082.722.152.379,46 47.775.462.628.071.500.000.000 25 2.218.822.682.340,98 2.438.342.189.433,10 48.188.813.993.966.900.000.000 2.487.926.940.311,56 72.417.101.657.898.300.000.000 26 2.101.835.639.324,57 2.289.231.456.047,77 35.117.192.125.355.500.000.000 2.252.731.966.795,75 22.769.701.644.289.700.000.000 27 2.179.585.623.051,96 2.077.529.330.703,79 10.415.486.807.855.000.000.000 2.034.442.956.977,81 21.066.393.515.112.500.000.000 28 2.085.327.285.783,91 2.179.236.207.865,36 8.818.885.646.499.880.000.000 2.193.242.687.250,84 11.645.733.873.769.000.000.000 29 2.194.264.026.611,27 2.056.599.368.076,07 18.951.558.209.614.500.000.000 2.040.040.815.745,60 23.784.798.769.717.600.000.000 30 2.101.519.761.225,70 2.212.150.169.330,18 12.239.087.197.363.200.000.000 2.237.194.867.033,68 18.407.734.336.007.800.000.000 31 2.164.270.437.104,46 2.087.543.559.970,98 5.887.013.674.655.530.000.000 2.069.214.466.597,95 9.035.637.528.934.500.000.000 32 2.134.385.442.655,94 2.171.028.249.973,73 1.342.695.328.128.810.000.000 2.183.571.720.548,30 2.419.289.932.904.110.000.000 33 2.286.247.515.411,65 2.133.391.551.540,11 23.364.945.691.097.900.000.000 2.127.977.198.184,62 25.049.493.315.143.900.000.000 34 2.302.567.169.597,70 2.343.098.157.185,83 1.642.760.954.869.490.000.000 2.372.834.010.160,85 4.937.428.882.727.680.000.000 35 2.357.357.294.388,94 2.356.962.453.085,07 155.899.655.241.083.000 2.353.324.372.698,09 16.264.457.364.497.700.000 36 2.868.540.344.551,54 2.408.262.725.514,93 211.855.486.586.015.000.000.000 2.407.723.576.881,31 212.352.093.366.035.000.000.000 Jumlah - 573.309.992.079.338.000.000.000 - 627.713.975.563.925.000.000.000 Universitas Sumatera Utara Periode Saldo Rp α = 0,9 Forecast 1 1.309.625.167.666,77 - - 2 1.232.536.432.554,87 - - 3 1.241.084.363.541,47 1.170.865.444.465,35 4.930.696.596.218.740.000.000 4 1.187.011.257.648,35 1.234.817.623.361,73 2.285.448.602.721.120.000.000 5 1.257.869.152.259,79 1.143.201.614.088,67 13.148.644.310.225.900.000.000 6 1.214.445.678.449,05 1.305.315.475.579,87 8.257.320.030.596.790.000.000 7 1.286.450.163.347,43 1.190.342.839.446,19 9.236.617.707.458.510.000.000 8 1.374.588.841.075,17 1.338.324.485.494,25 1.315.103.485.699.260.000.000 9 1.377.233.338.027,13 1.456.435.720.925,74 6.273.017.456.818.050.000.000 10 1.421.809.308.810,00 1.396.080.955.114,62 661.948.183.874.580.000.000 11 1.562.795.646.229,35 1.460.447.585.024,81 10.475.125.632.329.200.000.000 12 1.753.564.055.381,30 1.683.569.654.944,74 4.899.216.092.472.870.000.000 13 1.834.237.895.841,06 1.931.357.065.057,99 9.432.133.029.385.720.000.000 14 1.773.409.139.971,69 1.935.035.514.148,57 26.123.084.829.565.300.000.000 15 1.782.879.477.202,94 1.743.934.467.245,53 1.516.713.800.583.100.000.000 16 1.817.626.388.093,57 1.782.944.548.700,94 1.202.829.983.656.340.000.000 17 1.875.032.542.923,48 1.845.826.381.205,25 852.999.882.311.659.000.000 18 1.942.648.583.437,74 1.926.944.283.803,67 246.625.026.996.653.000.000 Universitas Sumatera Utara 19 1.928.112.409.763,38 2.007.415.825.642,37 6.289.031.770.075.540.000.000 20 1.879.963.264.481,32 1.929.593.962.261,16 2.463.206.162.113.530.000.000 21 2.000.901.948.152,24 1.840.947.224.596,44 25.585.513.587.813.000.000.000 22 1.929.675.298.230,68 2.089.353.380.134,20 25.497.089.840.387.900.000.000 23 2.031.843.737.356,38 1.891.983.811.925,38 19.560.798.741.564.000.000.000 24 2.301.298.140.603,40 2.104.443.410.576,84 38.751.784.733.828.400.000.000 25 2.218.822.682.340,98 2.532.780.197.099,42 98.569.321.073.294.200.000.000 26 2.101.835.639.324,57 2.201.107.274.330,51 9.854.857.516.753.290.000.000 27 2.179.585.623.051,96 2.001.563.348.161,76 31.691.930.357.080.300.000.000 28 2.085.327.285.783,91 2.220.738.435.451,25 18.336.179.454.231.300.000.000 29 2.194.264.026.611,27 2.019.931.401.198,23 30.391.864.283.403.200.000.000 30 2.101.519.761.225,70 2.266.980.130.859,35 27.377.133.919.303.600.000.000 31 2.164.270.437.104,46 2.043.610.896.020,99 14.558.724.854.473.400.000.000 32 2.134.385.442.655,94 2.201.234.601.070,19 4.468.809.980.693.100.000.000 33 2.286.247.515.411,65 2.119.076.875.301,10 27.946.022.914.969.500.000.000 34 2.302.567.169.597,70 2.404.006.968.561,10 10.290.032.813.735.900.000.000 35 2.357.357.294.388,94 2.340.846.489.977,54 272.606.662.311.648.000.000 36 2.868.540.344.551,54 2.407.830.860.308,26 212.253.228.871.705.000.000.000 Jumlah - 705.015.662.188.650.000.000.000 Universitas Sumatera Utara Gambar 4.2. Grafik Pemulusan Eksponensial Forecast untuk tahun 2010 adalah : Bulan 1 = 2.750.798.624.502,37 + 162.679.372.177,45 1 = 2.913.477.996.679,83 Bulan 2 = 2.750.798.624.502,37 + 162.679.372.177,45 2 = 3.076.157.368.857,28 Universitas Sumatera Utara Bulan 3 = 2.750.798.624.502,37 + 162.679.372.177,45 3 = 3.238.836.741.034,73 Bulan 4 = 2.750.798.624.502,37 + 162.679.372.177,45 4 = 3.401.516.113.212,18 Bulan 5 = 2.750.798.624.502,37 + 162.679.372.177,45 5 = 3.564.195.485.389,64 Bulan 6 = 2.750.798.624.502,37 + 162.679.372.177,45 6 = 3.726.874.857.567,09 Bulan 7 = 2.750.798.624.502,37 + 162.679.372.177,45 7 = 3.889.554.229.744,54 Bulan 8 = 2.750.798.624.502,37 + 162.679.372.177,45 8 = 4.052.233.601.921,99 Bulan 9 = 2.750.798.624.502,37 + 162.679.372.177,45 9 = 4.214.912.974.099,45 Bulan 10 = 2.750.798.624.502,37 + 162.679.372.177,45 10 = 4.377.592.346.276,90 Bulan 11 = 2.750.798.624.502,37 + 162.679.372.177,45 11 = 4.540.271.718.454,35 Bulan 12 = 2.750.798.624.502,37 + 162.679.372.177,45 12 = 4.702.951.090.631,80 Untuk forecast tahun 2011, m yang digunakan adalah m = 13 karena untuk satu kali peramalan m merupakan nilai berkelanjutan dari m sebelumnya. Forecast untuk tahun 2011 adalah : Bulan 1 = 2.750.798.624.502,37 + 162.679.372.177,45 13 = 4.865.630.462.809,26 Bulan 2 = 2.750.798.624.502,37 + 162.679.372.177,45 14 = 5.028.309.834.986,71 Bulan 3 = 2.750.798.624.502,37 + 162.679.372.177,45 15 = 5.190.989.207.164,16 Bulan 4 = 2.750.798.624.502,37 + 162.679.372.177,45 16 = 5.353.668.579.341,62 Bulan 5 = 2.750.798.624.502,37 + 162.679.372.177,45 17 = 5.516.347.951.519,07 Bulan 6 = 2.750.798.624.502,37 + 162.679.372.177,45 18 = 5.679.027.323.696,52 Bulan 7 = 2.750.798.624.502,37 + 162.679.372.177,45 19 = 5.841.706.695.873,97 Bulan 8 = 2.750.798.624.502,37 + 162.679.372.177,45 20 = 6.004.386.068.051,43 Bulan 9 = 2.750.798.624.502,37 + 162.679.372.177,45 21 = 6.167.065.440.228,88 Bulan 10 = 2.750.798.624.502,37 + 162.679.372.177,45 22 = 6.329.744.812.406,33 Bulan 11 = 2.750.798.624.502,37 + 162.679.372.177,45 23 = 6.492.424.184.583,78 Universitas Sumatera Utara Bulan 12 = 2.750.798.624.502,37 + 162.679.372.177,45 24 = 6.655.103.556.761,24 Untuk forecast tahun 2012, m yang digunakan adalah m = 25 karena untuk satu kali peramalan m merupakan nilai berkelanjutan dari m sebelumnya. Forecast untuk tahun 2012 adalah : Bulan 1 = 2.750.798.624.502,37 + 162.679.372.177,45 25 = 6.817.782.928.938,69 Bulan 2 = 2.750.798.624.502,37 + 162.679.372.177,45 26 = 6.980.462.301.116,14 Bulan 3 = 2.750.798.624.502,37 + 162.679.372.177,45 27 = 7.143.141.673.293,59 Bulan 4 = 2.750.798.624.502,37 + 162.679.372.177,45 28 = 7.305.821.045.471,05 Bulan 5 = 2.750.798.624.502,37 + 162.679.372.177,45 29 = 7.468.500.417.648,50 Bulan 6 = 2.750.798.624.502,37 + 162.679.372.177,45 30 = 7.631.179.789.825,95 Bulan 7 = 2.750.798.624.502,37 + 162.679.372.177,45 31 = 7.793.859.162.003,40 Bulan 8 = 2.750.798.624.502,37 + 162.679.372.177,45 32 = 7.956.538.534.180,86 Bulan 9 = 2.750.798.624.502,37 + 162.679.372.177,45 33 = 8.119.217.906.358,31 Bulan 10 = 2.750.798.624.502,37 + 162.679.372.177,45 34 = 8.281.897.278.535,76 Bulan 11 = 2.750.798.624.502,37 + 162.679.372.177,45 35 = 8.444.576.650.713,21 Bulan 12 = 2.750.798.624.502,37 + 162.679.372.177,45 36 = 8.607.256.022.890,67 Tabel 4.13. Forecast dengan Double Eksponensial Smoothing α = 0,5 Bulan 2010 2011 2012 1 2.913.477.996.679,83 4.865.630.462.809,26 6.817.782.928.938,69 2 3.076.157.368.857,28 5.028.309.834.986,71 6.980.462.301.116,14 3 3.238.836.741.034,73 5.190.989.207.164,16 7.143.141.673.293,59 4 3.401.516.113.212,18 5.353.668.579.341,62 7.305.821.045.471,05 5 3.564.195.485.389,64 5.516.347.951.519,07 7.468.500.417.648,50 6 3.726.874.857.567,09 5.679.027.323.696,52 7.631.179.789.825,95 7 3.889.554.229.744,54 5.841.706.695.873,97 7.793.859.162.003,40 8 4.052.233.601.921,99 6.004.386.068.051,43 7.956.538.534.180,86 9 4.214.912.974.099,45 6.167.065.440.228,88 8.119.217.906.358,31 10 4.377.592.346.276,90 6.329.744.812.406,33 8.281.897.278.535,76 11 4.540.271.718.454,35 6.492.424.184.583,78 8.444.576.650.713,21 12 4.702.951.090.631,80 6.655.103.556.761,24 8.607.256.022.890,67 Universitas Sumatera Utara BAB 5 IMPLEMENTASI SISTEM

5.1. Tahapan Implementasi