Demographic characteristics Household head characteristics

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7.3 Growth and distribution

Per capita consumption declined on average by about 3.5 percent in real terms between 2011-12 and 2013-14. The analysis of growth disaggregated by consumption quintiles reveals that deterioration in welfare was stronger for the poorer segments of the population Table 7.3 . Per capita consumption of the bottom two quintiles decreased by more than 2 percent a year, whereas the decline was relatively less severe for the population in the top two quintiles. Different pace of negative growth across quintiles suggests a possible increase in inequality. Table 7.3: Mean real per capita consumption at 2011-12 prices, by poverty quintile a,b Quintile Survey year Annual 2011-12 2013- 14 Growth Total 2,360 2,281 -1.7 Poorest 1,120 1,073 -2.1 2 1,615 1,540 -2.3 3 2,036 1,959 -1.9 4 2,619 2,545 -1.4 Richest 4,411 4,287 -1.4 a Excluded Helmand and Khost provinces from both surveys. b Quintiles are calculated based on imputed per capita consumption for both years.

7.4 Poverty profile

This section provides the profile of the poor with respect to household demographic characteristics, education and employment characteristics of the household head, attributes of children and access to basic services.

7.4.1 Demographic characteristics

Demographically, Afghanistan is a very young country with almost half of the population 47.5 percent below the age of 15. This youngest segment of the population is also over-represented amongst the poor with more than half of the poor 53 percent under the age of 15 Figure 7.1 . The young age composition is an indication of larger households and higher dependency ratio – both of which are normally associated with higher poverty rates. Poverty increases progressively with the increase in household size Table 7.4. Almost 70 percent of the poor belong to households with eight or more members, probably due to more dependents in larger households, particularly children. As labour endowment is often the only form of capital available to poorer households, higher child dependency is normally associated with higher likelihood of poverty. The poverty rate is twice as high among households with three or more children under the age of six compared to households with no children in that age group. 111 Figure 7.1: Poor and total population, by age group in percentages a a Excludes Helmand and Khost provinces. Table 7.4: Poverty headcount, share of poor and total population, by selected demographic characteristics in percentages a Demographic characteristics Poverty rate Share of poor Share of population Household Size 5 or less 25.8 11.0 16.7 6 to 7 34.7 21.2 23.9 8 or more 44.6 67.8 59.5 Number of children under 6 23.5 11.2 18.6 1 33.2 17.0 20.0 2 39.4 26.2 26.0 3 or more 50.4 45.7 35.4 a Excludes Helmand and Khost provinces. All the estimates are based on imputed poverty rates.

7.4.2 Household head characteristics

The head of household is usually the person responsible for the household’s livelihood. Attributes of the household head are one of the strongest determinants of poverty. Table 7.5 profiles poor households by characteristics of the household head. Education As shown in Table 7.5, the household head’s literacy and educational attainment level strongly correlate with poverty. Poverty rates are highest for people in households headed by an illiterate individual 46 percent, and poverty rates decrease steadily as the household head acquires more education. People living in households headed by individual with ‘No education’ are 1.5 to almost 3.5 times more likely to be poor than individuals living in households headed by someone with education above primary 17.1 16.2 14.0 20.1 16.0 14.0 2.6 18.8 18.7 15.4 16.8 15.2 12.8 2.3 5 10 15 20 25 P er ce n tag es Age Total Population Poor Population 112 school. In line with the findings from NRVA 2011-12 CSO 2014, even partial schooling at the primary level is enough to substantially reduce the likelihood of being poor. Table 7.5: Poverty headcount, share of poor and total population, by selected household head education in percentages a Household heads education characteristics Poverty rate Share of poor Share of population Literacy Illiterate 46.1 72.9 69.9 Literate 27.8 27.1 38.0 Educational attainment No education 45.0 81.0 70.5 Incomplete primary school less than grade 5 29.8 1.2 1.6 Completed primary school grade 5 or higher 30.2 6.4 8.4 Completed lower secondary school 28.2 3.2 4.5 Completed upper secondary school 22.9 5.1 8.7 Teacher college completed 22.6 1.3 2.3 Universitytechnical college post graduate 13.2 1.2 3.6 Attended or completed Islamic school 45.5 0.4 0.4 a Excludes Helmand and Khost provinces. All the estimates are based on imputed poverty rates. Labour market outcomes Labour market characteristics of the head of household is another strong predictor of poverty. Table 7.6 indicates that people living in households headed by an unemployed or underemployed person are significantly more likely to be poor than those in households where the household head is employed. The higher incidence of poverty associated with underemployment is in line with previous findings from NRVA 2011-12 CSO 2014. With regards to the type of employment, poverty risk increases where the head of household works as a day labourer. Individuals in households headed by a day labourer are more than 20 percentage points more likely to be poor compared to households where the head of household receives a regular salary. Similar to the findings from NRVA 2011-12, families headed by a person who works in any kind of informal labour arrangement – day labour, self-employment or unpaid family work – are also are more likely to be poor. Among employment sectors, people working in construction are particularly vulnerable, possibly reflecting the high level of casual and poor quality jobs in this sector. In addition, households headed by a person working in agriculture are significantly more likely to poor. 113 Table 7.6: Poverty headcount, share of poor and total population, by selected household head labour market outcomes in percentages a Household heads labour market characteristics Poverty rate Share of poor Share of population Activity status Employed 37.1 56.7 59.8 Underemployed 43.9 18.6 16.5 Unemployed 43.1 14.9 13.6 Inactive 37.8 9.8 10.1 Status in employment Day labourer 50.3 28.1 21.6 Salaried worker, private sector 30.8 5.9 7.5 salaried worker, public sector 24.5 9.1 14.4 Self-employed 38.7 45.8 45.9 Employer 37.7 2.3 2.3 Unpaid family worker 40.8 8.7 8.3 Economic sector Agriculture 46.3 45.0 37.6 Mining and quarrying 56.2 0.3 0.2 Manufacturing 33.1 2.3 2.7 Construction 48.5 20.9 16.6 Trade, restaurant 32.3 12.8 15.4 Transportation and communication 25.9 5.0 7.4 Finance 31.1 1.0 1.2 Community, social- and personal services 26.3 12.8 18.8 a Excludes Helmand and Khost provinces. All the estimates are based on imputed poverty rates.

7.4.3 Characteristics of children in the household