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Figure 4.13: Emigrants departing in the 12 months before the survey, by age, and by sex in percentages
4.4 The migration balance
Altogether, the ALCS 2013-14 suggest that some 3.0 million of the resident population ever migrated, either internally between provinces or across international borders. This number represents 11 percent of
the total population. Together these migrants moved some 4.8 million times. The reason for migration that was most reported
– for 40 percent of migrations – was moving because the parents or family moved. This high proportion is not surprising given the large number of
– dependent – children in Afghan families. The second main reason mentioned was return from displacement 25 percent,
followed by employment-related reasons 13 percent. Assuming that dependents who moved because their families moved can be redistributed to the primary reasons of those families, the displacement return
category would actually be 42 percent of migration motives. Together with 10 percent moves that were caused by violence or conflict, this means that more than half of the moves that Afghan people made were
related to violence-related displacement. Looking for work would be the second main reason for changing the place of residence 22 percent of the migrations. Although marriage is a very important reason for
changing the place of residence, especially for women, at the level of international and inter-province migration, this is only a minor reason. Most of marriage-related moves occur within the province CSO
2014. The combined effect of internal migration and immigration on the populations in the provinces of
Afghanistan is presented in
Figure 4.14
. It clearly shows the migration system of Kabul and its immediate surrounding provinces as, respectively, absorber and suppliers of internal migrants. Also provinces along
the borders of Pakistan and Iran, and those with large urban centres prominently figure as areas with population gains from either immigration or internal migration.
40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
0-4 5-9
10-14 15-19
20-24 25-29
30-34 35-39
40-44 45-49
50-54 55-59
60-64 65-69
70-74 75-79
80-84 85+
Percentage Female
Male
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Figure 4.14: Net overall migration effect
a
on population size, by province in percentages
a
Excluding emigrants currently living abroad.
The net relative impact of migration was largest in Kabul and Nimroz, where the population grew with around one quarter due to the difference between people entering and leaving. Balkh followed at a third
place with a net gain of just below 10 percent. Pansjher is the province that lost relatively most population: it would have had 28 percent more population without migration. Parwan, Logar, Wardak and Laghman
would have had between 10 and 19 percent more people. In absolute numbers, Kabul had by far the largest net gain due to migration: close to 900 thousand people.
Also Balkh, Herat and Nangarhar had substantial net migration gains of around 100 thousand persons each, while Khost, Kunduz Nimroz and Kunhara had between 30 thousand and 50 thousand more people coming
in than going out. On the other hand, Laghman and Wardak had a net loss of well over 100 thousand population each, and Parwan and Logar between 80 and 90 thousand.
To the extent that the assumptions for the calculation of the annual immigration and emigration rate are valid sections 4.3.1 and 4.3.2, respectively, the annual population loss in the two years before the survey
would be 105 thousand persons. This corresponds with a negative annual migration rate of 0.4 percent.
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4.5 Return from displacement
