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Table 7.1: List of candidate variables common across surveys
Demographic characteristics: Household size, dependency ratio, proportion of females in the household
Education: Literacy status and level of education of household head, average years of education Occupation: Employment status and sector of employment of household head and adult male members
Housing characteristics: Type of housing unit, construction material of wall, construction material of floor, type of kitchen, number of rooms, sources of cooking fuel, heating, drinking water, electricity,
type of toilet
Agriculture and livestock ownership: Ownership of agricultural land and different types of livestock Durable assets: Ownership of car, motorcycle, refrigerator, TV, sewing machine, carpets, iron, radio,
stove, tractor Shocks, conflict and others: Whether households experienced any shocks in the past 12 months prior
to the survey, conflict-related casualties, subjective measure of well-being, whether household owes debt
Location: regional dummies, seasonal dummies
7.2 Measuring poverty trends using survey to survey imputation
The imputed poverty rate for ALCS 2013-14 stands at 39.1 percent, statistically significantly
different from poverty rates of 2011-12 Table 7.2. Based on the imputed poverty estimate,
two out of five Afghans live below the poverty line, unable to meet the minimum consumption levels deemed necessary to satisfy basic food and non-
food needs. Between 2011-12 and 2013-14, poverty incidence at the national level increased by almost 4 percentage
points. In line with previous results, the analysis of imputed poverty rates shows that poverty did not change between 2007-08 and 2011-12. Although the difference in imputed poverty rates between the
two surveys is slightly higher than the difference in actual estimates, the difference is statistically insignificant, as is the case with the actual estimates.
Table 7.2: Trends in actual and imputed poverty rate
a
Poverty rate Survey year
95 Confidence Interval 2007-08
2011-12 2013-14
2007-08 2011-12
2013-14 Actual
36.3 35.8
[34.94, 37.60] [34.14, 37.40]
Imputed 37.2
35.2 39.1
[35.75, 38.63] [33.56, 36.78]
[37.71, 40.55]
a
Poverty estimates exclude Helmand and Khost provinces from all three surveys.
ANDS indicator 1.a alt Poverty headcount rate
39.1
110
7.3 Growth and distribution
Per capita consumption declined on average by about 3.5 percent in real terms between 2011-12 and 2013-14. The analysis of growth disaggregated by consumption quintiles reveals that deterioration in
welfare was stronger for the poorer segments of the population
Table 7.3
. Per capita consumption of the bottom two quintiles decreased by more than 2 percent a year, whereas the decline was relatively
less severe for the population in the top two quintiles. Different pace of negative growth across quintiles suggests a possible increase in inequality.
Table 7.3: Mean real per capita consumption at 2011-12 prices, by poverty quintile
a,b
Quintile Survey year
Annual 2011-12
2013- 14
Growth Total
2,360 2,281
-1.7 Poorest
1,120 1,073
-2.1 2
1,615 1,540
-2.3 3
2,036 1,959
-1.9 4
2,619 2,545
-1.4 Richest
4,411 4,287
-1.4
a
Excluded Helmand and Khost provinces from both surveys.
b
Quintiles are calculated based on imputed per capita consumption for both years.
7.4 Poverty profile
