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Data yang Digunakan untuk Pendugaan Model Ekonomi Deforestasi dan Degradasi Hutan Tahun Y t C t G t T t I t 1980 45446.00 27503.00 4688.00 2691.00 9485.00 1981 58127.00 32293.00 6452.00 3248.00 17324.00 1982 62476.00 37924.00 7229.00 3813.00 17406.00 1983 73698.00 44739.00 8077.00 4394.00 21669.00 1984 89750.30 54063.50 9121.50 4793.70 23407.70 1985 96996.80 57201.40 10893.90 6329.50 27202.80 1986 102682.60 63355.30 11328.70 8482.30 29033.90 1987 124816.90 71988.90 11763.50 9930.50 39146.00 1988 142104.80 81045.30 12755.80 12344.60 44809.50 1989 167184.70 88752.30 15697.60 16084.40 58830.80 1990 195597.20 106312.30 17572.60 22010.90 70704.90 1991 227450.20 125035.80 20784.60 24919.30 80741.70 1992 259884.50 135880.30 24731.30 30091.50 93225.10 1993 329775.80 192258.40 29756.70 36645.10 97912.80 1994 382219.70 228119.30 31014.00 44565.00 118707.10 1995 454514.10 279876.40 35584.20 49664.00 145117.90 1996 532568.00 332094.40 40299.20 60974.00 263453.10 1997 672625.40 387170.70 42952.00 70040.00 244231.21 1998 955753.50 647823.60 54415.90 91919.00 160327.30 1999 1099731.60 813183.30 72631.30 100274.00 125010.90 2000 1264918.70 850818.70 90779.70 115800.00 203645.80 2001 1684280.50 1039655.00 113416.10 179892.00 395041.10 2002 1863274.80 1231964.50 132218.80 219627.50 384392.80 2003 2036351.90 1372078.00 163701.40 248469.80 349792.60 2004 2295826.00 1532888.00 191056.00 280559.00 464619.00 2005 2774281.00 1785596.00 224981.00 346997.00 648665.00 2006 3339217.00 2092656.00 288080.00 409055.00 777753.00 2007 3950893.00 2510504.00 329760.00 491835.00 950926.00 2008 4948688.00 2999957.00 416867.00 641008.70 1479647.00 140 Lampiran 1. Lanjutan X t M t MS t DEF t IHK t π t π E t 13850.00 10080.00 7691.00 9.45 12.24 14.04 12.24 16177.00 14119.00 9716.00 11.20 13.74 12.24 9.48 15103.00 15186.00 11075.00 11.77 15.04 9.48 11.79 20448.00 21235.00 14663.00 13.33 16.81 11.79 8.16 22998.10 19840.50 17937.00 14.43 18.18 8.16 4.75 21533.90 19835.20 23153.00 15.20 19.05 4.75 5.81 20000.90 21036.20 27661.00 15.20 20.15 5.81 9.28 29874.30 27955.80 33885.00 17.60 22.02 9.28 8.06 34665.60 31171.40 41998.00 18.95 23.80 8.06 6.42 42505.00 38601.00 58705.00 20.74 25.32 6.42 7.80 51953.10 50945.70 84630.00 22.63 27.30 7.80 9.42 62263.80 61375.70 99059.00 24.61 29.87 9.42 7.53 76384.40 70336.60 119053.00 26.41 32.12 7.53 9.69 88230.90 78383.00 145202.00 31.47 35.23 9.69 8.51 101331.90 96952.60 174512.00 33.91 38.23 8.51 9.44 119592.50 125656.90 222638.00 37.26 41.84 9.44 7.97 37533.30 140812.00 288632.00 40.50 45.17 7.97 11.79 174871.30 176599.80 355643.00 48.85 50.50 11.79 77.54 506244.80 413058.10 577381.00 79.90 89.66 77.54 2.01 390560.10 301654.00 646205.00 91.22 91.45 2.01 9.35 542992.40 423317.90 747028.00 100.00 100.00 9.35 12.55 642594.60 506426.30 844054.00 116.72 112.55 12.55 9.00 595514.00 480815.30 883908.00 123.71 122.68 9.00 8.00 613720.80 462940.90 944366.00 129.11 132.49 8.00 4.86 739639.00 632376.00 1033528.00 138.59 138.93 4.86 10.46 945122.00 830083.00 1202762.00 158.46 153.46 10.46 13.10 1036316.00 855588.00 1382493.00 180.78 173.56 13.10 6.41 1162974.00 1003271.00 1649662.00 201.13 184.69 6.41 13.86 1475119.00 1422902.00 1895839.00 237.64 210.29 13.86 2.78 141 Lampiran 1. Lanjutan W t r t e t P P BBM t POP t LS t LD t 70138.80 12.91 799.36 52.50 150.07 52.42 51.53 73552.50 16.31 749.59 64.25 153.30 56.01 54.67 63847.00 17.29 763.90 85.00 156.54 59.60 57.80 62026.30 12.90 1040.67 145.00 159.78 63.19 60.94 48206.50 19.39 1052.75 220.00 161.58 61.36 60.08 56030.00 9.95 1235.72 242.00 162.66 63.83 62.46 67483.50 13.26 2007.25 200.00 165.87 70.19 68.34 78024.50 14.50 2340.79 198.93 169.15 72.25 70.40 86961.00 14.93 2329.41 201.82 172.49 74.60 72.52 103264.00 12.40 2361.55 200.78 175.90 75.51 73.43 138585.00 14.94 2704.48 245.00 179.38 77.80 75.85 175480.50 12.64 2849.42 300.00 182.35 78.46 76.42 193044.50 8.72 2835.25 249.54 185.38 80.70 78.52 215987.00 9.79 2898.21 380.00 188.45 81.45 79.20 286660.00 13.64 3211.67 380.00 191.58 85.78 82.04 323415.50 13.64 3430.82 380.00 194.75 86.36 80.11 334818.00 13.96 3426.66 380.00 197.00 90.11 85.70 339826.67 26.98 6274.01 380.00 199.28 89.60 85.41 365252.90 64.08 11299.40 600.00 201.58 92.74 87.67 390679.13 7.61 9724.23 480.88 203.91 94.85 88.82 416105.36 10.58 12501.40 550.00 206.26 95.65 89.84 441531.59 14.56 13070.00 1056.50 208.65 98.81 90.81 488563.21 14.20 12154.10 1318.75 211.06 100.78 91.65 520813.40 8.95 12578.70 1668.46 216.95 102.32 92.22 459894.25 6.20 14427.50 1650.00 220.08 103.97 93.72 510120.03 7.11 14049.70 2876.92 218.87 105.80 94.95 611385.03 9.26 13569.70 4300.00 224.00 106.30 95.18 677641.00 6.25 9136.20 4300.00 225.64 109.94 99.93 761506.06 8.52 9679.55 5400.00 228.52 112.80 102.55 142 Lampiran 1. Lanjutan UL t A HPH t q HA t DG HPH t S KHA t S KILL t P P KHA t 0.89 49407.00 19.97 4477.50 27797.23 393.94 48760.96 1.34 50789.00 14.43 1382.00 15954.43 4991.69 46474.58 1.80 52632.00 14.57 1843.00 13376.51 8538.64 44306.20 2.25 60974.00 13.01 8342.00 15208.57 7455.63 43708.14 1.28 53374.00 15.60 -7600.00 15957.64 7829.85 45268.25 1.37 53375.00 16.47 1.00 14551.95 10572.14 50664.52 1.86 55468.00 17.94 2093.00 19758.29 8672.54 60217.50 1.84 55468.00 22.15 0.00 27500.00 7606.93 84268.44 2.08 57656.00 22.64 2188.00 26310.00 10991.57 100164.63 2.08 57656.00 24.42 0.00 26030.00 14204.10 99185.10 1.95 58881.00 23.31 1225.00 25770.00 13441.92 116292.64 2.03 60480.00 21.73 1599.00 23810.00 13739.94 131073.32 2.19 61380.00 22.13 900.00 26050.00 12768.42 133256.75 2.25 61700.00 21.97 320.00 25190.00 13539.33 136215.87 3.74 61030.00 20.38 -670.00 22250.00 13284.08 160583.50 6.25 56170.00 21.43 -4860.00 22930.00 11457.01 202418.38 4.41 54090.00 23.26 -2080.00 25290.00 10663.98 222732.90 4.20 52280.00 17.78 -1810.00 19720.00 6840.24 392183.97 5.06 51580.00 15.52 -700.00 14330.00 8537.78 752736.65 6.03 41840.00 18.20 -9740.00 10370.00 11382.22 691465.68 5.86 39160.00 20.28 -2680.00 3400.00 19295.59 949851.37 8.01 36420.00 17.16 -2740.00 1809.10 16045.70 1061724.46 9.13 28080.00 22.47 -8340.00 3019.84 15004.93 1055824.24 10.10 27800.00 19.07 -280.00 4104.91 11039.31 1006296.00 10.25 27820.00 16.51 20.00 3510.76 9609.38 1514887.50 10.85 27270.00 19.56 -550.00 5720.52 9519.93 2388449.00 11.10 28700.00 11.99 1430.00 5586.72 4242.42 2849637.00 10.01 23569.00 13.14 -5131.00 6437.69 2413.45 2165279.79 9.39 26160.00 11.39 2591.00 4629.02 3884.53 2255335.05 143 Lampiran 1. Lanjutan S XKHA t DR t PSDH t D KHAKL t P P XKL t D KHAKG t GP HPH t 16314.00 2528.00 1939.67 2246.67 163868.80 9630.50 0.00 6957.00 2546.32 1993.73 3451.11 155165.13 10538.00 0.00 3524.00 2665.60 2175.99 4755.56 163474.60 13635.60 0.00 3494.00 3577.16 2503.69 6540.00 231028.74 12630.20 0.00 2059.00 4120.32 2759.46 8488.89 215813.75 13239.60 0.00 479.00 4459.32 2756.18 10408.89 249615.44 14236.20 0.00 0.00 5131.40 2923.88 13333.33 427544.25 15097.50 0.00 0.00 6610.40 3606.19 15333.33 690533.05 19773.60 0.00 0.00 7106.00 4507.79 16666.67 761717.07 20634.90 0.00 0.00 26582.10 4508.36 19520.00 767503.75 20714.10 0.00 0.00 27749.85 4869.88 20922.22 878956.00 18289.70 1.00 0.00 29880.00 5524.09 20274.44 940308.60 17275.50 1.00 0.00 30930.00 5838.32 21942.22 963985.00 16876.20 1.00 0.00 31650.00 5985.01 22053.33 1272314.19 16676.00 1.00 0.00 33000.00 6621.84 21857.78 1381018.10 13676.30 1.00 0.00 34620.00 8875.11 21111.11 1406636.20 13275.90 1.00 0.00 35745.00 8875.11 21277.78 1432343.88 14676.20 0.00 0.00 69750.00 8823.75 21333.33 2888415.55 5226.90 0.00 0.00 120375.00 16111.90 17333.33 3333323.00 5534.44 0.00 298.56 106500.00 32385.49 17333.33 3500722.80 4120.33 0.00 449.84 20525.48 34209.13 16666.67 3312871.00 5579.09 0.00 282.84 22326.90 37211.51 16222.22 2614000.00 1349.74 0.00 0.00 20961.45 34935.76 16777.78 2856213.50 1246.99 0.00 0.00 201259.20 35875.00 13579.01 3144675.00 1565.21 0.00 0.00 230840.00 36525.00 12254.20 5049625.00 865.93 0.00 0.00 224795.20 36125.00 12297.22 5760377.00 2943.23 0.00 0.00 217115.20 36125.00 8470.65 6242062.00 1358.49 0.00 0.00 146179.23 42350.00 7676.33 4421921.60 1174.80 0.00 0.00 154872.79 42350.00 7452.18 4481631.46 1061.38 0.00 144 Lampiran 1. Lanjutan A HTI t q HTI t DF HTI t S KHTI t D KHTI t P P KHTIt P P PULP t 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.00 233885.79 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 55.00 219323.52 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 63.00 223510.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 72.00 304491.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 83.65 308025.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 84.60 361560.94 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 88.40 587303.91 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 93.16 684894.82 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 97.91 681565.13 30.00 0.00 30.00 0.00 0.00 103.61 1251350.06 30.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 108.37 1488656.12 30.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 115.02 1352826.90 235.62 0.00 205.62 0.00 0.00 118.82 1246335.79 235.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 119.77 1002612.69 235.62 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 128.33 1826987.67 296.55 1.74 60.93 514.69 514.69 139.73 1307375.43 2043.24 0.23 1746.69 474.27 474.27 142.59 1312184.51 3179.24 0.13 1136.00 428.89 428.89 155.89 2601006.00 4301.75 0.11 1122.52 480.21 480.21 212.93 4666894.38 4452.61 0.04 150.86 187.83 187.83 180.61 3914029.49 4557.25 0.83 104.63 3783.60 3783.60 223.38 6670375.33 4647.74 1.20 90.49 5567.28 5567.28 250.94 4330132.08 4673.25 0.91 25.51 4242.53 4242.53 233.36 3823030.23 4751.59 1.12 78.34 5325.77 5325.77 226.42 4186493.75 6103.79 1.20 1352.20 7329.03 7329.03 302.98 5068083.47 6169.09 2.08 65.30 12818.20 12818.20 323.14 5063191.91 6521.74 3.37 352.65 21981.82 21981.82 332.46 5357001.96 7089.44 2.91 567.70 20614.21 20614.21 242.11 3828909.07 7150.20 3.12 60.76 22318.89 22318.89 290.39 5263726.48 145 Lampiran 1. Lanjutan GP HTI t A TSW t q SW t DF SW t S BSW t D BSW t P P BSW t 0.00 294.56 11.13 33.62 3278.05 3278.05 25.18 0.00 318.97 11.40 24.41 3636.64 3636.64 31.25 0.00 329.90 12.22 10.93 4031.00 4031.00 23.08 0.00 405.65 11.01 75.75 4468.12 4468.12 32.04 0.00 512.02 10.18 106.38 5214.50 5214.50 46.22 0.00 597.36 9.46 85.34 5651.95 5651.95 37.98 0.00 606.78 10.12 9.42 6139.68 6139.68 38.93 0.00 728.66 9.39 121.88 6845.70 6845.70 48.64 0.00 862.86 9.03 134.20 7787.89 7787.89 61.01 0.00 973.53 9.17 110.67 8931.61 8931.61 53.38 0.00 1126.68 9.73 153.15 10966.42 10966.42 62.26 0.00 1311.00 9.21 184.32 12080.00 12080.00 78.55 0.00 1467.47 10.12 156.47 14846.59 14846.59 79.19 0.00 1613.19 9.64 145.72 15552.04 15552.04 63.24 0.00 1804.15 10.10 190.96 18218.46 18218.46 90.50 0.00 2024.99 10.06 220.84 20362.14 20362.14 145.93 0.00 2249.51 9.90 224.53 22266.63 22266.63 143.51 0.00 2922.30 8.47 672.78 24765.95 24765.95 147.33 0.00 3560.20 7.57 637.90 26956.43 26956.43 462.24 0.00 3901.80 7.52 341.61 29343.59 29343.59 357.52 0.00 4158.08 7.65 256.28 31820.49 31820.49 349.88 0.00 4713.44 8.10 555.36 38165.78 38165.78 295.33 0.00 5067.06 8.63 353.62 43737.93 43737.93 385.88 0.00 5283.56 8.98 216.50 47458.34 47458.34 488.42 1.00 5284.72 9.32 1.17 49229.04 49229.04 573.13 1.00 5453.82 9.89 169.09 53916.43 53916.43 499.20 1.00 6594.91 11.96 1141.10 78867.49 78867.49 551.19 1.00 6766.84 11.87 171.92 80294.20 80294.20 889.77 1.00 7363.85 10.83 597.01 79726.31 79726.31 1180.71 146 Lampiran 1. Lanjutan P P DMSW t P P XMSW t A TKR t qKR t DF KR t Q KR t D DKR t 313255.83 377416.66 2383.81 0.43 -0.22 1020.00 43.87 344601.48 405413.50 2440.12 0.39 56.32 963.24 154.51 241042.10 283578.94 2483.92 0.36 43.80 899.21 97.81 291852.23 335462.33 2578.00 0.39 94.08 1006.98 68.98 295688.44 469346.74 2711.22 0.38 133.22 1032.60 23.00 415524.00 477613.80 2775.26 0.38 64.05 1054.97 54.07 404214.49 404214.49 2873.58 0.39 98.32 1113.13 154.43 648151.93 648151.93 2849.96 0.40 -23.63 1130.35 37.55 937425.43 937425.43 2944.32 0.40 94.37 1173.30 41.30 753623.23 753623.23 3055.96 0.40 111.64 1209.04 57.24 570644.56 570644.56 3141.61 0.41 85.65 1275.30 198.00 892042.30 892042.30 3173.92 0.42 32.31 1328.17 108.17 1055366.05 1055366.05 3289.22 0.43 115.30 1398.45 130.35 1052794.78 1052794.78 3405.02 0.43 115.80 1475.44 261.14 875092.51 1458487.52 3472.38 0.43 67.36 1499.42 254.62 1220505.77 2034176.28 3495.90 0.45 23.52 1573.30 249.50 1083088.20 1805147.01 3518.44 0.45 22.54 1574.03 139.73 1887703.34 3146172.23 3474.40 0.45 -44.04 1552.59 148.79 2328137.20 5820343.01 3607.30 0.46 132.89 1661.90 20.70 2773123.32 3648846.48 3595.06 0.45 -12.23 1604.36 109.82 3359615.61 3536437.48 3372.42 0.45 -222.64 1501.43 121.82 2836365.86 2924088.51 3344.77 0.48 -27.65 1607.46 154.08 3915261.34 4036351.90 3318.36 0.49 -26.41 1630.36 134.37 4708731.65 4854362.53 3290.11 0.54 -28.25 1792.35 130.14 5770598.35 5949070.46 3262.27 0.63 -27.84 2065.82 191.56 5184791.72 5345146.10 3279.39 0.69 17.12 2270.89 246.30 4710246.29 4781975.92 3346.43 0.79 67.04 2637.23 350.33 5334666.11 6131800.12 3413.72 0.81 67.29 2755.17 347.20 6775952.51 7528836.12 3424.22 0.80 10.50 2751.29 468.13 147 Lampiran 1. Lanjutan S XKR t P P DKR t P P XKR t A TPD t q PD t DF PD t S GKG t 976.13 780.00 407196.38 7824.04 3.79 148.93 29653.11 808.73 615.70 371015.21 8191.02 4.00 366.98 32764.08 801.40 506.70 300990.68 7872.60 4.27 -318.42 33616.00 938.00 865.30 548560.85 7986.91 4.42 114.31 35302.14 1009.60 952.30 640326.84 8547.12 4.46 560.21 38120.16 1000.90 773.10 593232.91 8755.72 4.46 208.60 39050.51 958.70 1219.20 1069614.61 8888.31 4.47 132.59 39730.75 1092.80 1479.50 1609909.47 8796.32 4.55 -91.99 40023.26 1132.00 1796.80 2169004.76 8925.38 4.67 129.06 41681.52 1151.80 1494.40 1862290.06 9364.95 4.77 439.57 44670.81 1077.30 1402.60 2126018.77 10502.51 4.30 1137.56 45160.79 1220.00 1490.20 2620683.33 10282.51 4.35 -220.00 44728.92 1268.10 1635.10 3051365.98 11103.11 4.34 820.60 48187.50 1214.30 1635.70 3234545.97 11013.91 4.38 -89.20 48129.32 1244.80 2452.10 5061341.86 10734.97 4.35 -278.94 46598.38 1323.80 3461.60 8962305.23 11439.22 4.35 704.25 49697.44 1434.30 3093.00 8567932.20 11569.84 4.41 130.62 51048.90 1403.80 3135.50 16994053.42 11141.59 4.43 -428.25 49339.09 1641.20 6256.00 16386896.29 11613.33 4.17 471.74 49236.69 1494.54 4579.17 5525311.83 11963.20 4.25 349.87 50866.39 1379.61 5251.67 8052286.85 11793.48 4.40 -169.72 51898.85 1453.38 10550.00 7070126.64 11499.99 4.39 -293.49 50460.78 1495.99 10750.00 8429640.30 11500.00 4.47 0.01 51489.69 1662.21 10300.00 11311915.54 11521.17 4.54 21.17 52137.60 1874.26 10430.00 16781210.51 11922.97 4.54 401.81 54088.47 2024.59 10750.00 17923908.11 11839.06 4.57 -83.91 54151.10 2286.90 15850.00 25642518.13 11786.43 4.62 -52.63 54454.94 2407.97 16950.00 18472567.35 12147.64 4.71 361.21 57157.44 2283.15 18550.00 25536075.23 12327.43 4.89 179.79 60325.93 148 Lampiran 1. Lanjutan D GKG t P P HPP t P P GKG t P P DBR t oil P t r US t US CPI t π US t 29653.11 105.00 189.82 198.39 31.32 13.36 47.85 13.50 32764.08 120.00 212.16 226.19 36.00 16.38 52.79 10.32 33616.00 135.00 229.61 254.92 36.15 12.26 56.04 6.16 35302.14 145.00 274.69 304.24 32.88 9.09 57.84 3.21 38120.16 165.00 284.81 330.97 28.87 10.23 60.34 4.32 39050.51 175.00 288.59 322.07 27.00 8.10 62.49 3.56 39730.75 175.00 167.27 345.24 14.32 6.81 63.65 1.86 40023.26 190.00 184.73 386.86 18.05 6.66 66.03 3.65 41681.52 210.00 381.62 469.20 14.62 7.57 68.67 4.14 44670.81 250.00 475.48 469.56 13.58 9.22 71.99 4.82 45160.79 270.00 466.68 525.17 18.91 8.21 75.88 5.40 44728.92 295.00 517.47 557.84 24.72 5.69 79.09 4.21 48187.50 330.00 303.70 603.68 16.22 3.52 81.48 3.01 48129.32 340.00 284.05 592.25 16.77 3.02 83.89 2.99 46598.38 360.00 325.83 660.37 12.37 3.02 86.08 2.56 49697.44 400.00 419.81 776.38 16.63 5.84 88.49 2.83 51048.90 450.00 432.75 880.00 19.61 5.30 91.09 2.95 49339.09 525.00 498.27 1064.03 18.28 5.46 93.22 2.29 49236.69 800.00 933.01 2099.71 11.71 5.35 94.66 1.56 50866.39 1400.00 1159.43 2665.58 17.13 4.97 96.73 2.21 51898.85 1400.00 964.72 2424.22 27.07 6.24 100.00 3.36 50460.78 1500.00 1141.22 2537.09 22.73 3.89 102.83 2.85 51489.69 1519.00 1255.46 2826.06 23.57 1.75 104.46 1.58 52137.60 1725.00 1249.33 2785.85 27.09 1.04 106.83 2.28 54088.47 1740.00 1258.31 2850.96 34.62 1.29 109.69 2.66 54151.10 2250.00 1567.67 3478.87 49.87 3.10 113.41 3.39 54454.94 2250.00 2509.72 5500.00 60.32 4.98 117.07 3.23 57157.44 2250.00 2654.51 6147.00 69.19 5.08 120.41 2.83 60325.93 2200.00 2767.66 6504.00 95.62 2.21 125.03 3.86 149 Lampiran 1. Lanjutan US GDP t KRISIS t FER t 12243.00 0.00 0.00 13594.00 0.00 0.00 14009.00 0.00 0.00 15084.00 0.00 0.00 16629.00 0.00 0.00 17683.00 0.00 0.00 18531.00 0.00 0.00 19504.00 0.00 0.00 20813.00 0.00 0.00 22160.00 0.00 0.00 23185.00 0.00 0.00 23635.00 0.00 0.00 24686.00 0.00 0.00 25616.00 0.00 0.00 26893.00 0.00 0.00 27813.00 0.00 0.00 29062.00 0.00 0.00 30526.00 0.00 0.00 31843.00 1.00 1.00 33486.00 1.00 1.00 35237.00 1.00 1.00 36049.00 0.00 1.00 36935.00 0.00 1.00 38310.00 0.00 1.00 40386.00 0.00 1.00 42612.00 0.00 1.00 44732.00 0.00 1.00 46449.00 0.00 1.00 46883.00 0.00 1.00 151 Lampiran 2. Program Pendugaan Model Ekonomi Deforestasi dan Degradasi Hutan Alam Menggunakan Metode 2SLS, Prosedure SYSLIN, Sofware SAS versi 9.0 DATA OLAH; SET AST.MIMA1; “BLOK MAKROEKONOMI” RY=YDFLA 100 ; LRY=LAGRY; PRY=RY-LRY; RPPJK=PPJKDFLA 100 ; LRPPJK=LAGRPPJK; RC=CDFLA 100 ; RYD=RY-RPPJK; RG=GDFLA 100 ; LRG=LAGRG; RI=IDFLA 100 ; LRI=LAGRI; NX = X - M; RNX = NXDFLA 100 ; LRNX=LAGRNX; LR=LAGR; RMS=MSDFLA 100 ; LRMS=LAGRMS; LIHK=LAGIHK; PIHK= IHK-LIHK; LEXR=LAGEXR; RR=R-DINF; LRR=LAGRR; L2RR=LAG2RR; P2RR=RR-L2RR; L3RR=LAG3RR; REXR = EXRIHKUSCPI; LUSCPI=LAGUSCPI; RFRATE = FEDRATE - USCPI-LUSCPILUSCPI 100 ; UIP = RR – RFRATE; OILP=WOILDFLA100; RW=WDFLA100; LRW=LAGRW; LEMP=LAGEMP; UNEMP=LF-EMP; LUSGDP=LAGUSGDP; 152 Lampiran 2. Lanjutan “BLOK DEFORESTASI” “HTI” RHEPU=HEPUEXRDFLA100; L2RHEPU=LAG2RHEPU; Lampiran 2. Lanjutan PRHEPU=RHEPU-LRHEPU; RHKHTI=HKHTIDFLA100; LRHKHTI=LAGRHKHTI; RHBBM=HBBMDFLA100; LAHTI=LAGAHTI; LQKHTI=LAGQKHTI; LDKHTI=LAGDKHTI; LRHEPU=LAGRHEPU; PRHEPU=RHEPU-LRHEPU; “SAWIT” RHEMSW=HEMSWEXRDFLA100; LRHEMSW=LAGRHEMSW; RHBSW=HBSWDFLA100; LRHBSW=LAGRHBSW; LATSW=LAGATSW; LQBSW=LAGQBSW; LRHDMSW=LAGRHDMSW; LDBSW=LAGDBSW; “KARET” RHDKR=HDKRDFLA100; L2RHDKR=LAG2RHDKR; RHEKR=HEKREXRDFLA100; LRHEKR=LAGRHEKR; PRHEKR=RHEKR-LRHEKR; LATKR=LAGATKR; LQKR=LAGQKR; LDDKR=LAGDDKR; LQXKR=LAGQXKR; “PADI” RHGKG=HGKGDFLA100; LRHGKG=LAGRHGKG; RHPP=HPPDFLA100; LRHPP=LAGRHPP; PRHPP=RHPP-LRHPP; POP=JUMLAH PENDUDUK; 153 Lampiran 2. Lanjutan LATPD=LAGATPD; LQGKG=LAGQGKG; RHDBR=LAGHDBRDFLA100; LDGKG=LAGDGKG; TTDF =TDFHTI + TDFSW + TDFKR + TDFPD; “BLOK DEGRADASI HUTAN” RHEKL=HEKLEXRDFLA100; RHKHA=HKBHAEXRDFLA100; Lampiran 2. Lanjutan LRHKHA=LAGRHKHA; L2QILL=LAG2QILL; LQILL=LAGQILL; LAHPH=LAGAHPH; RDR=DRDFLA100; RPSDH=PSDHDFLA100; LQKBHA=LAGQKBHA; LDKBKG=LAGDKBKG; LDKBKL=LAGDKBKL; Q=QILL+QKBHA; RUN; PERINTAH PENDUGAAN MODEL PROC syslin 2sls DATA=OLAH outest=a; ENDOGENOUS R RR UIP EXR RPPJK RG RI RNX RC RY IHK EMP UNEMP TDFHTI QKHTI DKHTI RHKHTI TDFSW QBSW DBSW RHBSW TDFKR QKR DDKR QXKR RHDKR TDFPD QGKG DGKG RHGKG TTDF TDGHPH QILL QKBHA DKBKG DKBKL RHKHA ; INSTRUMENTS OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD 154 Lampiran 2. Lanjutan RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB ; “ Blok Makroekonomi” Model RC = RYD RRDW ; Model RPPJK = RY RR LRPPJKDW ; Model RG = RPPJK OILP LRGDW; Model RI = L2RR RY KRISIS LRIDW ; Model RNX = REXR RY OILP LRNX; Model R = LRMS PIHK EXPINF KRISIS FER LRDW ; Model IHK = LRY LIHKDW ; Model EXR = UIP LRNX RMS KRISIS LEXRDW ; Model EMP = LRW RY LEMP ; Identity RY = RC + RI + RG + RNX ; Identity RR = R-DINF; Identity UIP = RR -RFRATE ; Identity UNEMP = LF - EMP; “ Blok Deforestasi” Model TDFHTI = L2RHEPU RHKHTI P2RR RW RHBBM RHEKR RHEMSW RHEKL PPHTI LAHTIDW; Model QKHTI = RHKHTI RR PRODHTI AHTI LQKHTIDW; Model DKHTI = RHKHTI RR RW PRHEPU PRY LDKHTIDW; Model RHKHTI = PRHEPU RHKHA LQKHTI LRHKHTIDW; Identity DKHTI = QKHTI; Model TDFSW = RHEMSW RHBSW L3RR RW LRHKHTI LRHKHA LATSWDW ; Model QBSW = LRHBSW RR PRODSW ATSW LQBSWDW ; Model DBSW = RHBSW RR RW RHDMSW RY LDBSWDW; Model RHBSW = RHEMSW DBSW LRHBSWDW; Identity QBSW = DBSW; Model TDFKR = RHDKR RR RHKHA RHEMSW RHEKR LATKRDW ; Model QKR = RHDKR RR PRODKR ATKR LQKRDW; Model DDKR = RHDKR LRR RY-LRY LDDKRDW; Model QXKR = LRHEKR L2RHDKR LUSGDP LQXKRDW; Model RHDKR = PRHEKR QXKR QKR LRHDKRDW; Identity QKR = DDKR + QXKR; Model TDFPD = RHGKG RHPP RR RHBBM RHKHA RHKHTI POP LATPD; Model QGKG = RHGKG RR RHBBM PRODPD LQGKGDW; 155 Lampiran 2. Lanjutan Model DGKG = LRHPP RR RHBBM RHDBR RY LDGKGDW; Model RHGKG = PRHPP QGKG LRHGKGDW; Identity QGKG = DGKG; Identity TTDF = TDFHTI + TDFSW + TDFKR + TDFPD; “Blok Degradasi Hutan” Model TDGHPH = RHEKL RHKHA RR L2QILL LRHEMSW LRHEKR KPIHPH LAHPHDW; Model QILL = RHKHA RR RHBBM RDR PRODHA PKUM LQILLDW ; Model QKBHA = LRHKHA LRR RPSDH PRODHA AHPH LQKBHADW; Model DKBKG = RHKHA RHKHTI RR RW RY LDKBKGDW; Model DKBKL = RHKHA RHKHTI LRR RW RHEKL PRY LDKBKLDW; Model RHKHA = RHEKL Q LRHKHADW; Identity QKBHA + QILL = DKBKG + DKBKL + QXKB ; RUN ; 157 Lampiran 3. Hasil Pendugaan Model Ekonomi Deforestasi dan Degradasi Hutan Alam Menggunakan Metode 2SLS, Prosedure SYSLIN, Software SAS versi 9.0 The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model RC Dependent Variable RC Label Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 2 2.212E12 1.106E12 457.77 .0001 Error 23 5.557E10 2.4162E9 Corrected Total 25 2.268E12 Root MSE 49154.4390 R‐Square 0.97549 Dependent Mean 742744.166 Adj R‐Sq 0.97336 Coeff Var 6.61795 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 ‐85438.2 35822.04 ‐2.39 0.0257 RYD 1 0.781288 0.029515 26.47 .0001 RR 1 ‐1760.78 1984.191 ‐0.89 0.3840 Durbin‐Watson 1.052469 Number of Observations 26 First‐Order Autocorrelation 0.416751 158 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model RPPJK Dependent Variable RPPJK Label Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 1.078E11 3.595E10 355.85 .0001 Error 22 2.2224E9 1.0102E8 Corrected Total 25 1.101E11 Root MSE 10050.7067 R‐Square 0.97981 Dependent Mean 129890.758 Adj R‐Sq 0.97705 Coeff Var 7.73782 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 ‐30515.6 9745.479 ‐3.13 0.0049 RY 1 0.088386 0.024595 3.59 0.0016 RR 1 297.9840 434.6253 0.69 0.5001 LRPPJK 1 0.445448 0.178907 2.49 0.0208 Durbin‐Watson 0.874376 Number of Observations 26 First‐Order Autocorrelation 0.545132 159 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model RG Dependent Variable RG Label Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 2.576E10 8.5863E9 170.68 .0001 Error 22 1.1068E9 50307889 Corrected Total 25 2.687E10 Root MSE 7092.80546 R‐Square 0.95880 Dependent Mean 98172.7635 Adj R‐Sq 0.95319 Coeff Var 7.22482 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 4609.400 6998.157 0.66 0.5169 RPPJK 1 0.339781 0.100765 3.37 0.0027 OILP 1 100.5573 41.08604 2.45 0.0228 LRG 1 0.456354 0.192320 2.37 0.0268 Durbin‐Watson 1.463183 Number of Observations 26 First‐Order Autocorrelation 0.239173 160 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model RI Dependent Variable RI Label Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 3.339E11 8.348E10 14.85 .0001 Error 21 1.181E11 5.6221E9 Corrected Total 25 4.52E11 Root MSE 74980.4695 R‐Square 0.73879 Dependent Mean 321683.099 Adj R‐Sq 0.68904 Coeff Var 23.30880 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 67056.85 55317.95 1.21 0.2389 L2RR 1 ‐2666.80 3195.097 ‐0.83 0.4133 RY 1 0.110685 0.047499 2.33 0.0298 KRISIS 1 ‐152416 46348.84 ‐3.29 0.0035 LRI 1 0.492063 0.152838 3.22 0.0041 Durbin‐Watson 1.705528 Number of Observations 26 First‐Order Autocorrelation 0.115386 161 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model RNX Dependent Variable RNX Label Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 8.135E10 2.034E10 7.28 0.0008 Error 21 5.869E10 2.7947E9 Corrected Total 25 1.4E11 Root MSE 52864.8775 R‐Square 0.58090 Dependent Mean 33849.8970 Adj R‐Sq 0.50107 Coeff Var 156.17441 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 173633.9 66164.33 2.62 0.0158 REXR 1 14.09883 3.541466 3.98 0.0007 RY 1 ‐0.18107 0.058541 ‐3.09 0.0055 OILP 1 ‐321.596 254.7716 ‐1.26 0.2207 LRNX 1 ‐0.00045 0.185294 ‐0.00 0.9981 Durbin‐Watson 2.153832 Number of Observations 26 First‐Order Autocorrelation ‐0.07775 162 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model R Dependent Variable R Label R Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 6 2427.876 404.6460 11.89 .0001 Error 19 646.4055 34.02134 Corrected Total 25 3074.281 Root MSE 5.83278 R‐Square 0.78974 Dependent Mean 14.19077 Adj R‐Sq 0.72334 Coeff Var 41.10265 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 11.01951 3.739373 2.95 0.0083 LRMS 1 ‐0.00001 0.000010 ‐1.45 0.1622 PIHK 1 1.328117 0.194529 6.83 .0001 EXPINF 1 0.223206 0.106271 2.10 0.0493 KRISIS 1 10.84997 5.355263 2.03 0.0570 FER 1 ‐12.1245 5.232919 ‐2.32 0.0318 LR 1 0.140253 0.145632 0.96 0.3476 Durbin‐Watson 1.502834 Number of Observations 26 First‐Order Autocorrelation 0.093567 163 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model EXR Dependent Variable EXR Label EXR Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 5 5.7197E8 1.1439E8 58.50 .0001 Error 20 39109777 1955489 Corrected Total 25 6.1108E8 Root MSE 1398.38795 R‐Square 0.93600 Dependent Mean 6622.65928 Adj R‐Sq 0.92000 Coeff Var 21.11520 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 284.3159 732.1621 0.39 0.7019 UIP 1 ‐73.2820 62.23908 ‐1.18 0.2528 LRNX 1 ‐0.00964 0.005849 ‐1.65 0.1151 RMS 1 0.001234 0.002313 0.53 0.5995 KRISIS 1 1801.065 994.2221 1.81 0.0851 LEXR 1 0.931677 0.138832 6.71 .0001 Durbin‐Watson 1.964423 Number of Observations 26 First‐Order Autocorrelation 0.013272 164 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model EMP Dependent Variable EMP Label EMP Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 3478.275 1159.425 385.58 .0001 Error 22 66.15400 3.007000 Corrected Total 25 3544.429 Root MSE 1.73407 R‐Square 0.98134 Dependent Mean 82.26003 Adj R‐Sq 0.97879 Coeff Var 2.10804 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 12.12663 4.838827 2.51 0.0201 LRW 1 ‐4.32E‐7 2.088E‐6 ‐0.21 0.8381 RY 1 5.007E‐6 2.742E‐6 1.83 0.0814 LEMP 1 0.799167 0.098480 8.12 .0001 Durbin‐Watson 2.765881 Number of Observations 26 First‐Order Autocorrelation ‐0.3836 165 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model TDFHTI Dependent Variable TDFHTI Label TDFHTI Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 10 4803280 480328.0 5.95 0.0011 Error 15 1210446 80696.38 Corrected Total 25 6013725 Root MSE 284.07108 R‐Square 0.79872 Dependent Mean 275.00754 Adj R‐Sq 0.66453 Coeff Var 103.29574 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 6935.613 2028.373 3.42 0.0038 L2RHEPU 1 0.000130 0.000071 1.83 0.0879 RHKHTI 1 ‐6.72131 2.680177 ‐2.51 0.0241 PRR2 1 ‐18.0749 10.28242 ‐1.76 0.0992 RW 1 ‐0.00443 0.001322 ‐3.35 0.0044 RHBBM 1 ‐0.79518 0.263443 ‐3.02 0.0086 RHEKR 1 0.000124 0.000028 4.47 0.0004 RHEMSW 1 ‐0.00019 0.000115 ‐1.61 0.1272 RHEKL 1 ‐0.00034 0.000110 ‐3.11 0.0072 PPHTI 1 1430.859 361.3547 3.96 0.0013 LAHTI 1 ‐0.65035 0.207582 ‐3.13 0.0068 Durbin‐Watson 2.571377 Number of Observations 26 First‐Order Autocorrelation ‐0.30352 166 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model QKHTI Dependent Variable QKHTI Label QKHTI Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 5 1.2503E9 2.5006E8 147.39 .0001 Error 20 33930929 1696546 Corrected Total 25 1.2842E9 Root MSE 1302.51542 R‐Square 0.97358 Dependent Mean 4079.50873 Adj R‐Sq 0.96697 Coeff Var 31.92824 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 ‐6539.66 2443.775 ‐2.68 0.0145 RHKHTI 1 13.02495 4.914103 2.65 0.0153 RR 1 ‐58.1816 55.17475 ‐1.05 0.3042 PRODHTI 1 3064.270 573.6662 5.34 .0001 AHTI 1 0.873631 0.316879 2.76 0.0122 LQKHTI 1 0.539577 0.096994 5.56 .0001 Durbin‐Watson 2.169606 Number of Observations 26 First‐Order Autocorrelation ‐0.08754 167 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DKHTI Dependent Variable DKHTI Label DKHTI Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 6 1.2194E9 2.0324E8 59.60 .0001 Error 19 64793732 3410196 Corrected Total 25 1.2842E9 Root MSE 1846.67171 R‐Square 0.94955 Dependent Mean 4079.50873 Adj R‐Sq 0.93361 Coeff Var 45.26701 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 3508.862 1929.397 1.82 0.0848 RHKHTI 1 ‐2.15949 3.422643 ‐0.63 0.5356 RR 1 ‐279.684 100.4655 ‐2.78 0.0118 RW 1 ‐0.00406 0.002448 ‐1.66 0.1136 PRHEPU1 1 0.000498 0.000304 1.64 0.1177 EGROWTH 1 0.025414 0.009037 2.81 0.0111 LDKHTI 1 0.827561 0.104093 7.95 .0001 Durbin‐Watson 1.822172 Number of Observations 26 First‐Order Autocorrelation 0.068915 168 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model RHKHTI Dependent Variable RHKHTI Label Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 583563.0 145890.7 157.53 .0001 Error 21 19449.00 926.1427 Corrected Total 25 603012.0 Root MSE 30.43259 R‐Square 0.96775 Dependent Mean 350.81152 Adj R‐Sq 0.96160 Coeff Var 8.67491 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 12.87728 47.06403 0.27 0.7871 PRHEPU1 1 7.366E‐6 4.627E‐6 1.59 0.1263 RHKHA 1 ‐0.00001 0.000032 ‐0.44 0.6678 LQKHTI 1 ‐0.00050 0.001360 ‐0.37 0.7162 LRHKHTI 1 0.953077 0.074089 12.86 .0001 Durbin‐Watson 1.814317 Number of Observations 26 First‐Order Autocorrelation 0.076987 169 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model TDFSW Dependent Variable TDFSW Label TDFSW Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 7 915131.7 130733.1 3.23 0.0212 Error 18 729203.3 40511.29 Corrected Total 25 1644335 Root MSE 201.27418 R‐Square 0.55654 Dependent Mean 270.53638 Adj R‐Sq 0.38408 Coeff Var 74.39819 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 803.3888 811.9403 0.99 0.3355 RHEMSW 1 0.000089 0.000057 1.56 0.1358 RHBSW 1 ‐0.64083 0.816883 ‐0.78 0.4430 L3RR 1 ‐10.6158 8.379574 ‐1.27 0.2214 RW 1 ‐0.00023 0.000320 ‐0.70 0.4902 LRHKHTI 1 ‐1.66153 1.259095 ‐1.32 0.2035 LRHKHA 1 0.000877 0.000298 2.95 0.0086 LATSW 1 ‐0.18746 0.121500 ‐1.54 0.1403 Durbin‐Watson 2.716435 Number of Observations 26 First‐Order Autocorrelation ‐0.46754 170 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model QBSW Dependent Variable QBSW Label QBSW Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 5 1.412E10 2.8239E9 729.60 .0001 Error 20 77408544 3870427 Corrected Total 25 1.42E10 Root MSE 1967.34014 R‐Square 0.99455 Dependent Mean 28600.5276 Adj R‐Sq 0.99318 Coeff Var 6.87868 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 ‐42682.3 6222.119 ‐6.86 .0001 LRHBSW 1 3.688968 6.469994 0.57 0.5749 RR 1 ‐5.91076 83.53211 ‐0.07 0.9443 PRODSW 1 4225.291 538.0842 7.85 .0001 ATSW 1 9.052626 0.882347 10.26 .0001 LQBSW 1 0.113077 0.094343 1.20 0.2447 Durbin‐Watson 1.234089 Number of Observations 26 First‐Order Autocorrelation 0.263544 171 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DBSW Dependent Variable DBSW Label DBSW Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 6 1.389E10 2.3155E9 145.00 .0001 Error 19 3.0341E8 15968873 Corrected Total 25 1.42E10 Root MSE 3996.10727 R‐Square 0.97863 Dependent Mean 28600.5276 Adj R‐Sq 0.97188 Coeff Var 13.97215 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 ‐3278.60 11346.38 ‐0.29 0.7757 RHBSW 1 ‐22.1345 12.97036 ‐1.71 0.1042 RR 1 ‐265.628 181.6144 ‐1.46 0.1599 RW 1 ‐0.01186 0.006736 ‐1.76 0.0945 RHDMSW 1 1.239352 2.776737 0.45 0.6604 RY 1 0.024577 0.011312 2.17 0.0427 LDBSW 1 0.599280 0.204810 2.93 0.0087 Durbin‐Watson 2.273608 Number of Observations 26 First‐Order Autocorrelation ‐0.15467 172 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model RHBSW Dependent Variable RHBSW Label Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 111080.2 37026.75 11.66 .0001 Error 22 69858.48 3175.385 Corrected Total 25 180938.7 Root MSE 56.35056 R‐Square 0.61391 Dependent Mean 329.55246 Adj R‐Sq 0.56126 Coeff Var 17.09912 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 82.20102 55.77476 1.47 0.1547 RHEMSW 1 0.000042 9.851E‐6 4.25 0.0003 DBSW 1 0.001973 0.000530 3.72 0.0012 LRHBSW 1 0.099541 0.153600 0.65 0.5237 Durbin‐Watson 1.966142 Number of Observations 26 First‐Order Autocorrelation ‐0.03386 173 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model TDFKR Dependent Variable TDFKR Label TDFKR Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 6 71229.74 11871.62 2.84 0.0382 Error 19 79517.88 4185.152 Corrected Total 25 150747.6 Root MSE 64.69275 R‐Square 0.47251 Dependent Mean 36.16519 Adj R‐Sq 0.30593 Coeff Var 178.88125 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 564.9602 193.1292 2.93 0.0087 RHDKR 1 0.003186 0.010399 0.31 0.7626 RR 1 ‐6.79734 3.046732 ‐2.23 0.0379 RHKHA 1 ‐0.00008 0.000057 ‐1.46 0.1614 RHEMSW 1 ‐7.43E‐6 0.000020 ‐0.38 0.7091 RHEKR 1 4.76E‐6 3.557E‐6 1.34 0.1967 LATKR 1 ‐0.15620 0.058559 ‐2.67 0.0152 Durbin‐Watson 2.148629 Number of Observations 26 First‐Order Autocorrelation ‐0.11068 174 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model QKR Dependent Variable QKR Label QKR Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 5 6465169 1293034 18546.4 .0001 Error 20 1394.380 69.71899 Corrected Total 25 6466564 Root MSE 8.34979 R‐Square 0.99978 Dependent Mean 1602.89631 Adj R‐Sq 0.99973 Coeff Var 0.52092 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 ‐1193.11 37.81030 ‐31.56 .0001 RHDKR 1 0.001453 0.001356 1.07 0.2966 RR 1 ‐0.54461 0.372185 ‐1.46 0.1589 PRODKR 1 3047.342 64.60167 47.17 .0001 ATKR 1 0.350690 0.012196 28.75 .0001 LQKR 1 0.101694 0.020668 4.92 .0001 Durbin‐Watson 1.393567 Number of Observations 26 First‐Order Autocorrelation 0.29248 175 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DDKR Dependent Variable DDKR Label DDKR Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 220230.7 55057.68 12.84 .0001 Error 21 90018.65 4286.603 Corrected Total 25 310249.4 Root MSE 65.47215 R‐Square 0.70985 Dependent Mean 161.58819 Adj R‐Sq 0.65458 Coeff Var 40.51791 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 105.5490 72.63240 1.45 0.1610 RHDKR 1 ‐0.00910 0.010847 ‐0.84 0.4111 LRR 1 ‐5.18891 2.820674 ‐1.84 0.0800 EGROWTH 1 0.000370 0.000262 1.41 0.1728 LDDKR 1 0.798310 0.162361 4.92 .0001 Durbin‐Watson 2.324106 Number of Observations 26 First‐Order Autocorrelation ‐0.23458 176 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model QXKR Dependent Variable QXKR Label QXKR Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 4216424 1054106 87.72 .0001 Error 21 252337.5 12016.07 Corrected Total 25 4468762 Root MSE 109.61784 R‐Square 0.94353 Dependent Mean 1441.30812 Adj R‐Sq 0.93278 Coeff Var 7.60544 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 102.2860 114.5276 0.89 0.3819 LRHEKR 1 2.688E‐6 3.212E‐6 0.84 0.4120 L2RHDKR 1 ‐0.00872 0.016459 ‐0.53 0.6020 LUSGDP 1 0.013080 0.007101 1.84 0.0796 LQXKR 1 0.720029 0.168488 4.27 0.0003 Durbin‐Watson 1.334647 Number of Observations 26 First‐Order Autocorrelation 0.282351 177 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model RHDKR Dependent Variable RHDKR Label Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 4 9753260 2438315 1.46 0.2501 Error 21 35100421 1671449 Corrected Total 25 44853681 Root MSE 1292.84516 R‐Square 0.21745 Dependent Mean 7255.06265 Adj R‐Sq 0.06839 Coeff Var 17.81990 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 4314.834 1394.392 3.09 0.0055 PRHEKR 1 0.000073 0.000052 1.41 0.1729 QXKR 1 3.696375 4.773756 0.77 0.4474 QKR 1 ‐2.37874 3.876247 ‐0.61 0.5460 LRHDKR 1 0.196950 0.200018 0.98 0.3360 Durbin‐Watson 1.991743 Number of Observations 26 First‐Order Autocorrelation 0.003387 178 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model TDFPD Dependent Variable TDFPD Label TDFPD Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 8 1614942 201867.7 1.89 0.1294 Error 17 1820519 107089.3 Corrected Total 25 3435461 Root MSE 327.24508 R‐Square 0.47008 Dependent Mean 171.33942 Adj R‐Sq 0.22071 Coeff Var 190.99228 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 ‐9198.99 4421.778 ‐2.08 0.0529 RHGKG 1 0.174284 0.207334 0.84 0.4122 RHPP 1 0.601135 0.629978 0.95 0.3533 RR 1 ‐23.3406 15.09199 ‐1.55 0.1404 RHBBM 1 ‐0.29953 0.208340 ‐1.44 0.1687 RHKHA 1 ‐0.00089 0.000462 ‐1.92 0.0713 RHKHTI 1 4.219849 2.283638 1.85 0.0821 POP 1 63.54466 21.98855 2.89 0.0102 LATPD 1 ‐0.40994 0.175085 ‐2.34 0.0317 Durbin‐Watson 2.478531 Number of Observations 26 First‐Order Autocorrelation ‐0.25845 179 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model QGKG Dependent Variable QGKG Label QGKG Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 5 9.2887E8 1.8577E8 91.77 .0001 Error 20 40488240 2024412 Corrected Total 25 9.6936E8 Root MSE 1422.81832 R‐Square 0.95823 Dependent Mean 47989.8984 Adj R‐Sq 0.94779 Coeff Var 2.96483 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 ‐16166.6 10033.07 ‐1.61 0.1228 RHGKG 1 0.351790 0.849424 0.41 0.6832 RR 1 ‐55.8235 60.40343 ‐0.92 0.3664 RHBBM 1 ‐0.44924 0.857686 ‐0.52 0.6062 PRODPD 1 4504.244 2416.344 1.86 0.0771 LQGKG 1 0.942387 0.067185 14.03 .0001 Durbin‐Watson 2.403813 Number of Observations 26 First‐Order Autocorrelation ‐0.21291 180 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DGKG Dependent Variable DGKG Label DGKG Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 6 9.3519E8 1.5587E8 86.67 .0001 Error 19 34168492 1798342 Corrected Total 25 9.6936E8 Root MSE 1341.02263 R‐Square 0.96475 Dependent Mean 47989.8984 Adj R‐Sq 0.95362 Coeff Var 2.79439 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 15550.00 6964.717 2.23 0.0378 LRHPP 1 ‐1.78842 2.358771 ‐0.76 0.4576 RR 1 ‐27.4545 56.96717 ‐0.48 0.6354 RHBBM 1 ‐0.85523 0.856707 ‐1.00 0.3307 RHDBR 1 0.968472 1.024794 0.95 0.3565 RY 1 0.006241 0.002750 2.27 0.0351 LDGKG 1 0.552955 0.176764 3.13 0.0055 Durbin‐Watson 1.966136 Number of Observations 26 First‐Order Autocorrelation ‐0.0409 181 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model RHGKG Dependent Variable RHGKG Label Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 3044215 1014738 9.78 0.0003 Error 22 2282598 103754.4 Corrected Total 25 5326813 Root MSE 322.10937 R‐Square 0.57149 Dependent Mean 1342.98301 Adj R‐Sq 0.51306 Coeff Var 23.98462 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 1439.380 752.5141 1.91 0.0689 PRHPP 1 0.219112 0.455779 0.48 0.6354 QGKG 1 ‐0.01812 0.012543 ‐1.44 0.1627 LRHGKG 1 0.564356 0.163599 3.45 0.0023 Durbin‐Watson 1.471632 Number of Observations 26 First‐Order Autocorrelation 0.254676 182 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model TDGHPH Dependent Variable TDGHPH Label TDGHPH Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 7 2.2432E8 32045725 4.21 0.0065 Error 18 1.3695E8 7608610 Corrected Total 25 3.6128E8 Root MSE 2758.37093 R‐Square 0.62091 Dependent Mean ‐1018.1538 Adj R‐Sq 0.47349 Coeff Var ‐270.91887 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 18545.02 6923.911 2.68 0.0153 RHEKL 1 0.003265 0.000915 3.57 0.0022 RHKHA 1 ‐0.01044 0.004276 ‐2.44 0.0252 RR 1 ‐462.195 136.9469 ‐3.37 0.0034 L2QILL 1 ‐0.48485 0.186867 ‐2.59 0.0183 LRHEMSW 1 ‐0.00211 0.000643 ‐3.29 0.0041 KPIHPH 1 ‐506.236 1948.073 ‐0.26 0.7979 LAHPH 1 ‐0.16942 0.119323 ‐1.42 0.1728 Durbin‐Watson 2.006376 Number of Observations 26 First‐Order Autocorrelation ‐0.09452 183 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model QILL Dependent Variable QILL Label QILL Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 7 3.0452E8 43502769 10.23 .0001 Error 18 76535160 4251953 Corrected Total 25 3.8105E8 Root MSE 2062.02652 R‐Square 0.79915 Dependent Mean 10540.1125 Adj R‐Sq 0.72104 Coeff Var 19.56361 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 3450.205 4001.590 0.86 0.3999 RHKHA 1 0.000506 0.001996 0.25 0.8028 RR 1 ‐152.881 91.51140 ‐1.67 0.1121 RHBBM 1 ‐3.01272 1.534406 ‐1.96 0.0652 RDR 1 ‐0.02144 0.010638 ‐2.02 0.0590 PRODHA 1 408.9038 159.4463 2.56 0.0195 PKUM 1 411.1423 2215.215 0.19 0.8548 LQILL 1 0.459784 0.142001 3.24 0.0046 Durbin‐Watson 1.583423 Number of Observations 26 First‐Order Autocorrelation 0.186333 184 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model QKBHA Dependent Variable QKBHA Label QKBHA Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 6 2.075E9 3.4583E8 69.31 .0001 Error 19 94800826 4989517 Corrected Total 25 2.1698E9 Root MSE 2233.72271 R‐Square 0.95631 Dependent Mean 15355.5772 Adj R‐Sq 0.94251 Coeff Var 14.54665 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 ‐5429.13 7336.647 ‐0.74 0.4683 LRHKHA 1 0.001499 0.003024 0.50 0.6258 LRR 1 ‐196.699 104.7373 ‐1.88 0.0758 RPSDH 1 ‐0.58191 0.126943 ‐4.58 0.0002 PRODHA 1 800.2421 188.2378 4.25 0.0004 AHPH 1 0.280795 0.121106 2.32 0.0317 LQKBHA 1 0.351669 0.150212 2.34 0.0303 Durbin‐Watson 1.645031 Number of Observations 26 First‐Order Autocorrelation 0.176983 185 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DKBKG Dependent Variable DKBKG Label DKBKG Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 6 1.2355E9 2.0591E8 41.63 .0001 Error 19 93986195 4946642 Corrected Total 25 1.3295E9 Root MSE 2224.10473 R‐Square 0.92930 Dependent Mean 9965.32410 Adj R‐Sq 0.90698 Coeff Var 22.31844 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 ‐2234.08 6728.256 ‐0.33 0.7435 RHKHA 1 ‐0.00186 0.002824 ‐0.66 0.5172 RHKHTI 1 16.06287 10.42745 1.54 0.1399 RR 1 ‐208.443 97.54792 ‐2.14 0.0458 RW 1 ‐0.00085 0.004281 ‐0.20 0.8444 RY 1 0.000963 0.003307 0.29 0.7741 LDKBKG 1 0.744575 0.186695 3.99 0.0008 Durbin‐Watson 2.018001 Number of Observations 26 First‐Order Autocorrelation ‐0.06749 186 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model DKBKL Dependent Variable DKBKL Label DKBKL Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 7 6.4086E8 91551983 74.39 .0001 Error 18 22152102 1230672 Corrected Total 25 6.6302E8 Root MSE 1109.35671 R‐Square 0.96659 Dependent Mean 15658.7026 Adj R‐Sq 0.95360 Coeff Var 7.08460 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 1246.330 2304.044 0.54 0.5952 RHKHA 1 ‐0.00333 0.001588 ‐2.10 0.0503 RHKHTI 1 4.793018 3.437488 1.39 0.1802 LRR 1 ‐30.6317 55.55324 ‐0.55 0.5881 RW 1 ‐0.00315 0.002623 ‐1.20 0.2455 RHEKL 1 0.000613 0.000432 1.42 0.1729 EGROWTH 1 0.010330 0.004766 2.17 0.0439 LDKBKL 1 0.911707 0.098259 9.28 .0001 Durbin‐Watson 2.871075 Number of Observations 26 First‐Order Autocorrelation ‐0.43969 187 Lampiran 3. Lanjutan The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation Model RHKHA Dependent Variable RHKHA Label Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 2.537E12 8.455E11 52.21 .0001 Error 22 3.562E11 1.619E10 Corrected Total 25 2.893E12 Root MSE 127252.432 R‐Square 0.87685 Dependent Mean 715581.100 Adj R‐Sq 0.86006 Coeff Var 17.78309 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 305432.0 168867.6 1.81 0.0842 RHEKL 1 0.130992 0.030631 4.28 0.0003 QL 1 ‐15.6081 4.590326 ‐3.40 0.0026 LRHKHA 1 0.555619 0.125418 4.43 0.0002 Durbin‐Watson 1.833888 Number of Observations 26 First‐Order Autocorrelation 0.071401 189 Lampiran 4. Hasil Pendugaan Model Ekonomi Deforestasi dan Degradasi Hutan Alam Menggunakan Metode 2SLS dan AR1, Software EViews versi 6 Dependent Variable: RC Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 022812 Time: 01:26 Sample: 1983 2008 Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 12 iterations Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB Lagged dependent variable regressors added to instrument list Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -56417.51 61107.14 -0.923256 0.3659 RYD 0.750511 0.052134 14.39593 0.0000 RR -1421.586 1392.704 -1.020737 0.3185 AR1 0.530577 0.204816 2.590507 0.0167 R-squared 0.980819 Mean dependent var 742738.1 Adjusted R-squared 0.978203 S.D. dependent var 301187.2 S.E. of regression 44466.70 Sum squared resid 4.35E+10 F-statistic 374.9822 Durbin-Watson stat 1.784833 ProbF-statistic 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR 4.35E+10 Inverted AR Roots .53 190 Lampiran 4. Lanjutan Dependent Variable: RPPJK Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 022812 Time: 01:34 Sample: 1983 2008 Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 18 iterations Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB Lagged dependent variable regressors added to instrument list Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -58992.19 23359.39 -2.525417 0.0197 RY 0.153017 0.029391 5.206330 0.0000 RR -156.8430 249.8787 -0.627677 0.5370 RPPJK-1 0.039132 0.178372 0.219386 0.8285 AR1 0.790514 0.156965 5.036250 0.0001 R-squared 0.989158 Mean dependent var 129889.8 Adjusted R-squared 0.987092 S.D. dependent var 66352.70 S.E. of regression 7538.419 Sum squared resid 1.19E+09 F-statistic 478.9633 Durbin-Watson stat 1.860860 ProbF-statistic 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR 1.19E+09 Inverted AR Roots .79 191 Lampiran 4. Lanjutan Dependent Variable: RG Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 022812 Time: 01:37 Sample: 1983 2008 Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 8 iterations Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB Lagged dependent variable regressors added to instrument list Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 10154.85 10280.38 0.987789 0.3345 RPPJK 0.424375 0.118110 3.593056 0.0017 OILP 127.4504 61.08260 2.086526 0.0493 RG-1 0.265881 0.236871 1.122474 0.2743 AR1 0.377229 0.214909 1.755297 0.0938 R-squared 0.963854 Mean dependent var 98171.33 Adjusted R-squared 0.956969 S.D. dependent var 32782.52 S.E. of regression 6800.408 Sum squared resid 9.71E+08 F-statistic 139.9929 Durbin-Watson stat 1.879237 ProbF-statistic 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR 9.71E+08 Inverted AR Roots .38 192 Lampiran 4. Lanjutan Dependent Variable: RI Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 022812 Time: 01:39 Sample: 1983 2008 Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 16 iterations Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB Lagged dependent variable regressors added to instrument list Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 8822.436 158018.0 0.055832 0.9560 RR-1 2202.201 2472.776 0.890578 0.3837 RY 0.297151 0.139217 2.134454 0.0454 KRISIS -185378.4 67147.78 -2.760752 0.0121 RI-1 -0.080172 0.250542 -0.319993 0.7523 AR1 0.704682 0.220303 3.198698 0.0045 R-squared 0.762951 Mean dependent var 321678.7 Adjusted R-squared 0.703689 S.D. dependent var 134460.3 S.E. of regression 73192.71 Sum squared resid 1.07E+11 F-statistic 12.87417 Durbin-Watson stat 1.866472 ProbF-statistic 0.000011 Second-Stage SSR 1.07E+11 Inverted AR Roots .70 193 Lampiran 4. Lanjutan Dependent Variable: RNX Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 022812 Time: 01:41 Sample: 1983 2008 Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 20 iterations Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB Lagged dependent variable regressors added to instrument list Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 170114.6 62445.35 2.724216 0.0131 REXR 13.56636 3.843080 3.530075 0.0021 RY -0.177489 0.056799 -3.124839 0.0053 OILP -311.6503 226.5882 -1.375404 0.1842 RNX-1 0.069802 0.274017 0.254734 0.8015 AR1 -0.134133 0.334634 -0.400834 0.6928 R-squared 0.585477 Mean dependent var 33850.78 Adjusted R-squared 0.481847 S.D. dependent var 74840.23 S.E. of regression 53872.14 Sum squared resid 5.80E+10 F-statistic 5.649654 Durbin-Watson stat 2.037577 ProbF-statistic 0.002093 Second-Stage SSR 5.80E+10 Inverted AR Roots -.13 194 Lampiran 4. Lanjutan Dependent Variable: R Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 022812 Time: 01:43 Sample: 1983 2008 Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 19 iterations Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB Lagged dependent variable regressors added to instrument list Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 12.01211 4.639409 2.589147 0.0185 RMS-1 -1.67E-05 1.27E-05 -1.318049 0.2040 IHK-IHK-1 1.357908 0.199437 6.808720 0.0000 EXPINF 0.206645 0.109854 1.881090 0.0762 KRISIS 10.88883 5.533044 1.967964 0.0647 FER -11.67211 6.478519 -1.801664 0.0884 R-1 0.112403 0.152622 0.736479 0.4709 AR1 0.215784 0.336409 0.641436 0.5293 R-squared 0.793854 Mean dependent var 14.19077 Adjusted R-squared 0.713686 S.D. dependent var 11.08924 S.E. of regression 5.933662 Sum squared resid 633.7503 F-statistic 9.902404 Durbin-Watson stat 1.698624 ProbF-statistic 0.000046 Second-Stage SSR 633.7503 Inverted AR Roots .22 195 Lampiran 4. Lanjutan Dependent Variable: IHK Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 022812 Time: 01:45 Sample: 1983 2008 Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 8 iterations Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB Lagged dependent variable regressors added to instrument list Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -10.80683 5.429008 -1.990572 0.0591 RY-1 1.82E-05 7.92E-06 2.302910 0.0311 IHK-1 0.963797 0.060507 15.92877 0.0000 AR1 -0.226708 0.229715 -0.986912 0.3344 R-squared 0.988667 Mean dependent var 75.20577 Adjusted R-squared 0.987121 S.D. dependent var 60.23762 S.E. of regression 6.836047 Sum squared resid 1028.094 F-statistic 639.7262 Durbin-Watson stat 2.011119 ProbF-statistic 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR 1028.094 Inverted AR Roots -.23 196 Lampiran 4. Lanjutan Dependent Variable: EXR Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 022812 Time: 01:47 Sample: 1983 2008 Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 28 iterations Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB Lagged dependent variable regressors added to instrument list Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 274.6091 813.8032 0.337439 0.7395 RR-RFRATE -84.16786 63.08017 -1.334300 0.1979 RNX-1 -0.009667 0.006165 -1.567860 0.1334 RMS 0.001464 0.002743 0.533609 0.5998 KRISIS 1732.817 1055.807 1.641225 0.1172 EXR-1 0.916711 0.165690 5.532698 0.0000 AR1 0.056605 0.268634 0.210713 0.8354 R-squared 0.936053 Mean dependent var 6622.659 Adjusted R-squared 0.915859 S.D. dependent var 4944.015 S.E. of regression 1434.110 Sum squared resid 39076756 F-statistic 46.35366 Durbin-Watson stat 1.979702 ProbF-statistic 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR 39076756 Inverted AR Roots .06 197 Lampiran 4. Lanjutan Dependent Variable: EMP Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 022812 Time: 02:09 Sample: 1983 2008 Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 9 iterations Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB Lagged dependent variable regressors added to instrument list Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 9.568721 3.221160 2.970583 0.0073 RW-1 -4.02E-07 1.40E-06 -0.286667 0.7772 RY 3.66E-06 1.90E-06 1.929315 0.0673 EMP-1 0.850661 0.066754 12.74316 0.0000 AR1 -0.428011 0.201156 -2.127757 0.0454 R-squared 0.984535 Mean dependent var 82.26000 Adjusted R-squared 0.981589 S.D. dependent var 11.90665 S.E. of regression 1.615578 Sum squared resid 54.81191 F-statistic 334.2220 Durbin-Watson stat 2.026748 ProbF-statistic 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR 54.81191 Inverted AR Roots -.43 198 Lampiran 4. Lanjutan Dependent Variable: TDFHTI Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 022812 Time: 02:12 Sample: 1983 2008 Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 32 iterations Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB Lagged dependent variable regressors added to instrument list Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 6035.801 2288.134 2.637871 0.0195 RHEPU-2 0.000108 6.48E-05 1.664284 0.1183 RHKHTI -5.316059 2.915920 -1.823116 0.0897 RR-RR-2 -20.06286 11.54696 -1.737502 0.1042 RW -0.004089 0.001328 -3.079988 0.0081 RHBBM -0.779607 0.206367 -3.777760 0.0020 RHEKR 0.000131 2.44E-05 5.381578 0.0001 RHEMSW -0.000199 0.000116 -1.714179 0.1085 RHEKL -0.000330 9.07E-05 -3.640916 0.0027 PPHTI 1238.447 335.5274 3.691045 0.0024 AHTI-1 -0.534241 0.229503 -2.327815 0.0354 AR1 -0.503551 0.293967 -1.712952 0.1088 R-squared 0.835489 Mean dependent var 275.0077 Adjusted R-squared 0.706231 S.D. dependent var 490.4583 S.E. of regression 265.8307 Sum squared resid 989323.6 F-statistic 6.463713 Durbin-Watson stat 2.246241 ProbF-statistic 0.000844 Second-Stage SSR 989323.6 Inverted AR Roots -.50 199 Lampiran 4. Lanjutan Dependent Variable: QKHTI Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 022812 Time: 02:14 Sample: 1983 2008 Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 10 iterations Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB Lagged dependent variable regressors added to instrument list Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -6382.717 2342.127 -2.725180 0.0134 RHKHTI 12.86902 4.691243 2.743200 0.0129 RR -71.08063 59.54558 -1.193718 0.2473 PRODHTI 3093.163 591.9722 5.225184 0.0000 AHTI 0.835182 0.315076 2.650729 0.0158 QKHTI-1 0.543789 0.096619 5.628171 0.0000 AR1 -0.124159 0.250529 -0.495587 0.6259 R-squared 0.973782 Mean dependent var 4079.508 Adjusted R-squared 0.965503 S.D. dependent var 7167.177 S.E. of regression 1331.184 Sum squared resid 33668950 F-statistic 117.6172 Durbin-Watson stat 2.056199 ProbF-statistic 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR 33668950 Inverted AR Roots -.12 200 Lampiran 4. Lanjutan Dependent Variable: DKHTI Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 022812 Time: 02:17 Sample: 1983 2008 Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 10 iterations Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB Lagged dependent variable regressors added to instrument list Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 3608.361 2160.288 1.670315 0.1122 RHKHTI -2.351334 3.807461 -0.617560 0.5446 RR -274.5783 101.2935 -2.710721 0.0143 RW -0.004144 0.002681 -1.545602 0.1396 RHEPU-RHEPU-1 0.000490 0.000306 1.602454 0.1265 RY-RY-1 0.025650 0.009848 2.604534 0.0179 DKHTI-1 0.819310 0.126179 6.493244 0.0000 AR1 0.058621 0.274227 0.213767 0.8331 R-squared 0.949656 Mean dependent var 4079.508 Adjusted R-squared 0.930078 S.D. dependent var 7167.177 S.E. of regression 1895.205 Sum squared resid 64652421 F-statistic 48.50563 Durbin-Watson stat 1.890613 ProbF-statistic 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR 64652421 Inverted AR Roots .06 201 Lampiran 4. Lanjutan Dependent Variable: RHKHTI Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 022812 Time: 05:27 Sample: 1983 2008 Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 17 iterations Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB Lagged dependent variable regressors added to instrument list Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 18.82905 59.26048 0.317734 0.7540 RHEPU-RHEPU-1 7.96E-06 4.57E-06 1.743051 0.0967 RHKHA -1.28E-05 3.63E-05 -0.351637 0.7288 QKHTI-1 -0.000813 0.001594 -0.510192 0.6155 RHKHTI-1 0.936296 0.099634 9.397306 0.0000 AR1 0.149277 0.251066 0.594572 0.5588 R-squared 0.968453 Mean dependent var 350.8008 Adjusted R-squared 0.960566 S.D. dependent var 155.2908 S.E. of regression 30.83768 Sum squared resid 19019.25 F-statistic 122.7937 Durbin-Watson stat 2.089928 ProbF-statistic 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR 19019.25 Inverted AR Roots .15 202 Lampiran 4. Lanjutan Dependent Variable: TDFSW Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 022812 Time: 05:32 Sample adjusted: 1984 2007 Included observations: 24 after adjustments Convergence achieved after 18 iterations Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB Lagged dependent variable regressors added to instrument list Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 1299.323 558.4231 2.326772 0.0344 RHEMSW 6.37E-05 4.29E-05 1.486270 0.1579 RHBSW -0.666299 0.700386 -0.951330 0.3565 RR-3 -14.66318 7.547488 -1.942789 0.0711 RW -0.000409 0.000185 -2.217470 0.0425 RHKHTI1 -2.153504 0.715569 -3.009497 0.0088 RHKHA-1 0.000781 0.000183 4.267935 0.0007 ATSW-1 -0.231339 0.055282 -4.184733 0.0008 AR1 -0.615164 0.316925 -1.941040 0.0713 R-squared 0.782473 Mean dependent var 265.0504 Adjusted R-squared 0.666458 S.D. dependent var 255.2989 S.E. of regression 147.4430 Sum squared resid 326091.4 F-statistic 6.744615 Durbin-Watson stat 2.383251 ProbF-statistic 0.000803 Second-Stage SSR 326091.4 Inverted AR Roots -.62 203 Lampiran 4. Lanjutan Dependent Variable: QBSW Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 022812 Time: 05:34 Sample: 1983 2008 Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 9 iterations Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB Lagged dependent variable regressors added to instrument list Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -43932.25 5171.539 -8.495004 0.0000 RHBSW-1 0.046127 4.875256 0.009462 0.9925 RR -4.367065 56.90550 -0.076742 0.9396 PRODSW 4507.706 493.6166 9.131999 0.0000 ATSW 9.768781 0.729057 13.39920 0.0000 QBSW-1 0.031462 0.073341 0.428985 0.6728 AR1 0.437517 0.128930 3.393446 0.0030 R-squared 0.996505 Mean dependent var 28600.53 Adjusted R-squared 0.995401 S.D. dependent var 23829.96 S.E. of regression 1615.982 Sum squared resid 49616552 F-statistic 902.9044 Durbin-Watson stat 2.031650 ProbF-statistic 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR 49616552 Inverted AR Roots .44 204 Lampiran 4. Lanjutan Dependent Variable: DBSW Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 022812 Time: 05:36 Sample: 1983 2008 Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 29 iterations Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB Lagged dependent variable regressors added to instrument list Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -2244.330 10964.29 -0.204694 0.8401 RHBSW -23.33792 12.47764 -1.870379 0.0778 RR -290.5991 201.2895 -1.443688 0.1660 RW -0.010632 0.006789 -1.566146 0.1347 RHDMSW 1.368128 2.667994 0.512793 0.6143 RY 0.022296 0.012563 1.774734 0.0929 DBSW-1 0.656246 0.238436 2.752291 0.0131 AR1 -0.210059 0.320113 -0.656204 0.5200 R-squared 0.979334 Mean dependent var 28600.53 Adjusted R-squared 0.971298 S.D. dependent var 23829.96 S.E. of regression 4037.202 Sum squared resid 2.93E+08 F-statistic 121.8592 Durbin-Watson stat 2.120663 ProbF-statistic 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR 2.93E+08 Inverted AR Roots -.21 205 Lampiran 4. Lanjutan Dependent Variable: RHBSW Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 022812 Time: 05:37 Sample: 1983 2008 Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 23 iterations Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB Lagged dependent variable regressors added to instrument list Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 81.57648 61.58372 1.324644 0.1995 RHEMSW 4.08E-05 1.30E-05 3.145477 0.0049 DBSW 0.001926 0.000748 2.575201 0.0176 RHBSW-1 0.117844 0.282326 0.417403 0.6806 AR1 -0.064020 0.439155 -0.145780 0.8855 R-squared 0.615039 Mean dependent var 329.5466 Adjusted R-squared 0.541713 S.D. dependent var 85.08261 S.E. of regression 57.59829 Sum squared resid 69668.82 F-statistic 8.387742 Durbin-Watson stat 1.918460 ProbF-statistic 0.000331 Second-Stage SSR 69668.82 Inverted AR Roots -.06 206 Lampiran 4. Lanjutan Dependent Variable: TDFKR Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 022812 Time: 05:41 Sample: 1983 2008 Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 60 iterations Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB Lagged dependent variable regressors added to instrument list Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 606.9898 174.9765 3.468978 0.0027 RHDKR 0.001071 0.010725 0.099897 0.9215 RR -8.231884 3.309290 -2.487508 0.0229 RHKHA -9.19E-05 5.59E-05 -1.643807 0.1176 RHEMSW -1.15E-05 1.98E-05 -0.578399 0.5702 RHEKR 6.06E-06 3.47E-06 1.745424 0.0980 ATKR-1 -0.161324 0.055527 -2.905301 0.0094 AR1 -0.156100 0.268186 -0.582058 0.5677 R-squared 0.477290 Mean dependent var 36.16577 Adjusted R-squared 0.274014 S.D. dependent var 77.65276 S.E. of regression 66.16388 Sum squared resid 78797.87 F-statistic 2.347990 Durbin-Watson stat 2.084057 ProbF-statistic 0.068486 Second-Stage SSR 78797.87 Inverted AR Roots -.16 207 Lampiran 4. Lanjutan Dependent Variable: QKR Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 022812 Time: 05:42 Sample: 1983 2008 Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 15 iterations Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB Lagged dependent variable regressors added to instrument list Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -1304.793 83.00897 -15.71870 0.0000 RHDKR 0.002636 0.001899 1.387992 0.1812 RR -0.774980 0.394506 -1.964431 0.0643 PRODKR 3139.847 96.83679 32.42411 0.0000 ATKR 0.380739 0.025667 14.83394 0.0000 QKR-1 0.074069 0.029389 2.520243 0.0208 AR1 0.464264 0.183051 2.536254 0.0201 R-squared 0.999649 Mean dependent var 1602.897 Adjusted R-squared 0.999538 S.D. dependent var 508.5886 S.E. of regression 10.93267 Sum squared resid 2270.943 F-statistic 9013.983 Durbin-Watson stat 2.110848 ProbF-statistic 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR 2270.943 Inverted AR Roots .46 208 Lampiran 4. Lanjutan Dependent Variable: DDKR Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 022812 Time: 05:44 Sample: 1983 2008 Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 8 iterations Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB Lagged dependent variable regressors added to instrument list Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 106.6144 64.11936 1.662749 0.1120 RHDKR -0.010171 0.009810 -1.036825 0.3122 RR-1 -5.828949 2.845871 -2.048213 0.0539 RY-RY-1 0.000375 0.000239 1.565200 0.1332 DDKR-1 0.846774 0.148328 5.708803 0.0000 AR1 -0.279024 0.232825 -1.198429 0.2448 R-squared 0.728291 Mean dependent var 161.5892 Adjusted R-squared 0.660364 S.D. dependent var 111.3989 S.E. of regression 64.92138 Sum squared resid 84295.72 F-statistic 10.72165 Durbin-Watson stat 2.000582 ProbF-statistic 0.000041 Second-Stage SSR 84295.72 Inverted AR Roots -.28 209 Lampiran 4. Lanjutan Dependent Variable: QXKR Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 022812 Time: 05:46 Sample: 1983 2008 Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 39 iterations Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB Lagged dependent variable regressors added to instrument list Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 2.446200 476.0310 0.005139 0.9960 RHEKR-1 1.29E-05 3.08E-06 4.195720 0.0004 RHDKR-2 -0.015124 0.010250 -1.475592 0.1556 USGDP-1 0.043708 0.016977 2.574473 0.0181 QXKR-1 0.082290 0.195526 0.420865 0.6783 AR1 0.868631 0.123550 7.030623 0.0000 R-squared 0.970708 Mean dependent var 1441.308 Adjusted R-squared 0.963385 S.D. dependent var 422.7885 S.E. of regression 80.90096 Sum squared resid 130899.3 F-statistic 132.5554 Durbin-Watson stat 1.572986 ProbF-statistic 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR 130899.3 Inverted AR Roots .87 210 Lampiran 4. Lanjutan Dependent Variable: RHDKR Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 022812 Time: 05:48 Sample: 1983 2008 Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 27 iterations Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB Lagged dependent variable regressors added to instrument list Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 4283.563 3456.421 1.239306 0.2296 RHEKR-RHEKR-1 7.43E-05 5.34E-05 1.391605 0.1793 QXKR 3.674619 5.096489 0.721010 0.4792 QKR -2.365590 4.026008 -0.587577 0.5634 RHDKR-1 0.202657 0.609432 0.332534 0.7429 AR1 -0.009185 0.651133 -0.014106 0.9889 R-squared 0.217611 Mean dependent var 7254.963 Adjusted R-squared 0.022014 S.D. dependent var 1339.587 S.E. of regression 1324.760 Sum squared resid 35099807 F-statistic 1.112546 Durbin-Watson stat 1.988991 ProbF-statistic 0.385137 Second-Stage SSR 35099807 Inverted AR Roots -.01 211 Lampiran 4. Lanjutan Dependent Variable: TDFPD Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 022812 Time: 05:50 Sample: 1983 2008 Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 13 iterations Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB Lagged dependent variable regressors added to instrument list Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -8932.920 3072.219 -2.907645 0.0103 RHGKG 0.348054 0.156104 2.229633 0.0404 RHPP 0.504327 0.494159 1.020578 0.3226 RR -29.88638 15.53437 -1.923888 0.0723 RHBBM -0.169423 0.177441 -0.954812 0.3539 RHKHA -0.000891 0.000356 -2.502891 0.0235 RHKHTI 3.954517 1.671473 2.365888 0.0309 POP 48.54795 18.25271 2.659767 0.0171 ATPD-1 -0.174962 0.157464 -1.111120 0.2829 AR1 -0.498162 0.243087 -2.049318 0.0572 R-squared 0.550498 Mean dependent var 171.3400 Adjusted R-squared 0.297653 S.D. dependent var 370.6999 S.E. of regression 310.6693 Sum squared resid 1544247. F-statistic 2.177214 Durbin-Watson stat 2.300249 ProbF-statistic 0.083660 Second-Stage SSR 1544247. Inverted AR Roots -.50 212 Lampiran 4. Lanjutan Dependent Variable: QGKG Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 022812 Time: 05:52 Sample: 1983 2008 Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 16 iterations Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB Lagged dependent variable regressors added to instrument list Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -14873.69 9044.077 -1.644578 0.1165 RHGKG 0.512769 0.745601 0.687726 0.4999 RR -60.46110 65.85190 -0.918138 0.3701 RHBBM -0.299252 0.757509 -0.395047 0.6972 PRODPD 4011.904 2214.159 1.811931 0.0858 QGKG-1 0.953313 0.058288 16.35531 0.0000 AR1 -0.242427 0.230959 -1.049656 0.3070 R-squared 0.960461 Mean dependent var 47989.90 Adjusted R-squared 0.947975 S.D. dependent var 6226.908 S.E. of regression 1420.301 Sum squared resid 38327835 F-statistic 76.92236 Durbin-Watson stat 2.253956 ProbF-statistic 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR 38327835 Inverted AR Roots -.24 213 Lampiran 4. Lanjutan Dependent Variable: DGKG Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 022812 Time: 05:54 Sample: 1983 2008 Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 70 iterations Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB Lagged dependent variable regressors added to instrument list Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 25891.97 11312.33 2.288827 0.0344 RHPP-1 -0.844636 2.481288 -0.340402 0.7375 RR -46.39643 50.89384 -0.911632 0.3740 RHBBM -2.003432 1.102557 -1.817078 0.0859 RHDBR 1.028758 1.257753 0.817933 0.4241 RY 0.010717 0.004429 2.419923 0.0263 DDGKG-1 0.226863 0.334167 0.678891 0.5058 AR1 0.388088 0.298548 1.299920 0.2100 R-squared 0.966830 Mean dependent var 47989.90 Adjusted R-squared 0.953930 S.D. dependent var 6226.908 S.E. of regression 1336.533 Sum squared resid 32153751 F-statistic 74.95107 Durbin-Watson stat 1.990582 ProbF-statistic 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR 32153751 Inverted AR Roots .39 214 Lampiran 4. Lanjutan Dependent Variable: RHGKG Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 022812 Time: 05:55 Sample: 1983 2008 Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 28 iterations Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB Lagged dependent variable regressors added to instrument list Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 2081.029 3682.345 0.565137 0.5780 RHPP-RHPP-1 0.177328 0.394348 0.449674 0.6576 QGKG -0.026394 0.046887 -0.562924 0.5794 RHGKG-1 0.389236 1.055231 0.368863 0.7159 AR1 0.377112 1.179523 0.319716 0.7523 R-squared 0.611919 Mean dependent var 1342.950 Adjusted R-squared 0.537998 S.D. dependent var 461.5658 S.E. of regression 313.7295 Sum squared resid 2066951. F-statistic 8.278087 Durbin-Watson stat 1.739309 ProbF-statistic 0.000358 Second-Stage SSR 2066951. Inverted AR Roots .38 215 Lampiran 4. Lanjutan Dependent Variable: TDGHPH Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 022812 Time: 05:59 Sample: 1983 2008 Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 17 iterations Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB Lagged dependent variable regressors added to instrument list Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 15298.41 8027.945 1.905644 0.0748 RHEKL 0.003540 0.000979 3.616929 0.0023 RHKHA -0.009923 0.004703 -2.109959 0.0510 RR -540.0948 157.1706 -3.436360 0.0034 QILL-2 -0.427461 0.203070 -2.104991 0.0514 RHEMSW-1 -0.001537 0.000986 -1.558850 0.1386 RHEKR-1 -0.000171 0.000175 -0.979889 0.3417 KPIHPH -1108.177 2115.817 -0.523758 0.6076 AHPH-1 -0.138803 0.134204 -1.034263 0.3164 AR1 0.034816 0.306848 0.113463 0.9111 R-squared 0.645071 Mean dependent var -1018.154 Adjusted R-squared 0.445424 S.D. dependent var 3801.447 S.E. of regression 2830.933 Sum squared resid 1.28E+08 F-statistic 3.231051 Durbin-Watson stat 2.026929 ProbF-statistic 0.019734 Second-Stage SSR 1.28E+08 Inverted AR Roots .03 216 Lampiran 4. Lanjutan Dependent Variable: QILL Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 022812 Time: 06:01 Sample: 1983 2008 Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 38 iterations Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB Lagged dependent variable regressors added to instrument list Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 3299.569 4913.800 0.671490 0.5109 RHKHA 0.000758 0.002169 0.349344 0.7311 RR -131.7598 84.83008 -1.553221 0.1388 RHBBM -2.981875 1.806944 -1.650231 0.1172 RDR -0.021166 0.012473 -1.696989 0.1079 PRODHA 435.8245 171.9413 2.534729 0.0214 PKUM 421.3484 2389.805 0.176311 0.8621 QILL-1 0.398807 0.237214 1.681208 0.1110 AR1 0.234658 0.380719 0.616354 0.5458 R-squared 0.807518 Mean dependent var 10540.11 Adjusted R-squared 0.716938 S.D. dependent var 3904.124 S.E. of regression 2077.133 Sum squared resid 73346170 F-statistic 8.914991 Durbin-Watson stat 1.707106 ProbF-statistic 0.000090 Second-Stage SSR 73346170 Inverted AR Roots .23 217 Lampiran 4. Lanjutan Dependent Variable: QKBHA Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 022812 Time: 06:03 Sample: 1983 2008 Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 49 iterations Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB Lagged dependent variable regressors added to instrument list Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -10534.49 7707.395 -1.366804 0.1885 RHKHA-1 0.002809 0.003117 0.901131 0.3794 RR-1 -209.6630 92.18915 -2.274270 0.0354 RPSDH -0.494871 0.150529 -3.287547 0.0041 PRODHA 765.9956 195.8429 3.911276 0.0010 AHPH 0.368882 0.137387 2.684988 0.0151 QKBHA-1 0.276694 0.194788 1.420491 0.1726 AR1 0.338450 0.287735 1.176254 0.2548 R-squared 0.958741 Mean dependent var 15355.58 Adjusted R-squared 0.942695 S.D. dependent var 9316.146 S.E. of regression 2230.137 Sum squared resid 89523218 F-statistic 59.75200 Durbin-Watson stat 1.775243 ProbF-statistic 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR 89523218 Inverted AR Roots .34 218 Lampiran 4. Lanjutan Dependent Variable: DKBKG Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 022812 Time: 06:06 Sample: 1983 2008 Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 17 iterations Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB Lagged dependent variable regressors added to instrument list Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C -3460.369 6544.107 -0.528776 0.6038 RHKHA -0.002447 0.003871 -0.632122 0.5357 RHKHTI 16.68629 11.03084 1.512695 0.1487 RR -204.6940 120.0788 -1.704664 0.1065 RW -0.002848 0.004487 -0.634741 0.5340 RHEKL 0.000228 0.000782 0.291835 0.7739 RY 0.001973 0.003465 0.569461 0.5765 DKBKG-1 0.791207 0.220185 3.593372 0.0022 AR1 -0.201772 0.279062 -0.723037 0.4795 R-squared 0.931553 Mean dependent var 9965.324 Adjusted R-squared 0.899343 S.D. dependent var 7292.350 S.E. of regression 2313.608 Sum squared resid 90997295 F-statistic 28.92098 Durbin-Watson stat 1.924428 ProbF-statistic 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR 90997295 Inverted AR Roots -.20 219 Lampiran 4. Lanjutan Dependent Variable: DKBKL Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 022812 Time: 06:07 Sample: 1983 2008 Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 11 iterations Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB Lagged dependent variable regressors added to instrument list Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 896.1906 1751.049 0.511802 0.6154 RHKHA -0.003400 0.001277 -2.663293 0.0164 RHKHTI 5.521699 2.660897 2.075127 0.0535 RR-1 -33.40403 51.26938 -0.651540 0.5234 RW -0.004355 0.001656 -2.629815 0.0176 RHEKL 0.000611 0.000364 1.680755 0.1111 RY-RY-1 0.011803 0.003620 3.260759 0.0046 DKBKL-1 0.955339 0.070152 13.61807 0.0000 AR1 -0.496897 0.213445 -2.327986 0.0325 R-squared 0.974294 Mean dependent var 15658.70 Adjusted R-squared 0.962197 S.D. dependent var 5149.819 S.E. of regression 1001.273 Sum squared resid 17043319 F-statistic 80.54134 Durbin-Watson stat 2.598196 ProbF-statistic 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR 17043319 Inverted AR Roots -.50 220 Lampiran 4. Lanjutan Dependent Variable: RHKHA Method: Two-Stage Least Squares Date: 022812 Time: 06:09 Sample: 1983 2008 Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 18 iterations Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB Lagged dependent variable regressors added to instrument list Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 309719.4 200654.1 1.543549 0.1376 RHEKL 0.129333 0.032326 4.000831 0.0006 QILL+QKBHA -15.45845 5.098633 -3.031881 0.0063 RHKHA-1 0.551386 0.152475 3.616246 0.0016 AR1 0.078756 0.254231 0.309783 0.7598 R-squared 0.877557 Mean dependent var 715576.6 Adjusted R-squared 0.854234 S.D. dependent var 340174.3 S.E. of regression 129876.0 Sum squared resid 3.54E+11 F-statistic 37.62707 Durbin-Watson stat 1.937746 ProbF-statistic 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR 3.54E+11 Inverted AR Roots .08 221 Lampiran 5. Program Validasi Model Ekonomi Deforestasi dan Degradasi Hutan Alam Menggunakan Metode Newton, Prosedur SYSNLIN, Software SAS versi 9.0 DATA OLAH; SET AST.MIMA1; “BLOK MAKROEKONOMI” RY=YDFLA 100 ; LRY=LAGRY; PRY=RY-LRY; RPPJK=PPJKDFLA 100 ; LRPPJK=LAGRPPJK; RC=CDFLA 100 ; RYD=RY-RPPJK; RG=GDFLA 100 ; LRG=LAGRG; RI=IDFLA 100 ; LRI=LAGRI; NX = X - M; RNX = NXDFLA 100 ; LRNX=LAGRNX; LR=LAGR; RMS=MSDFLA 100 ; LRMS=LAGRMS; LIHK=LAGIHK; PIHK= IHK-LIHK; LEXR=LAGEXR; RR=R-DINF; LRR=LAGRR; L2RR=LAG2RR; P2RR=RR-L2RR; L3RR=LAG3RR; REXR = EXRIHKUSCPI; LUSCPI=LAGUSCPI; RFRATE = FEDRATE - USCPI-LUSCPILUSCPI 100 ; UIP = RR – RFRATE; OILP=WOILDFLA100; RW=WDFLA100; LRW=LAGRW; LEMP=LAGEMP; UNEMP=LF-EMP; LUSGDP=LAGUSGDP; 222 Lampiran 5. Lanjutan “BLOK DEFORESTASI” “HTI” RHEPU=HEPUEXRDFLA100; L2RHEPU=LAG2RHEPU; PRHEPU=RHEPU-LRHEPU; RHKHTI=HKHTIDFLA100; LRHKHTI=LAGRHKHTI; RHBBM=HBBMDFLA100; LAHTI=LAGAHTI; LQKHTI=LAGQKHTI; LDKHTI=LAGDKHTI; LRHEPU=LAGRHEPU; PRHEPU=RHEPU-LRHEPU; “SAWIT” RHEMSW=HEMSWEXRDFLA100; LRHEMSW=LAGRHEMSW; RHBSW=HBSWDFLA100; LRHBSW=LAGRHBSW; LATSW=LAGATSW; LQBSW=LAGQBSW; LRHDMSW=LAGRHDMSW; LDBSW=LAGDBSW; “KARET” RHDKR=HDKRDFLA100; L2RHDKR=LAG2RHDKR; RHEKR=HEKREXRDFLA100; LRHEKR=LAGRHEKR; PRHEKR=RHEKR-LRHEKR; LATKR=LAGATKR; LQKR=LAGQKR; LDDKR=LAGDDKR; LQXKR=LAGQXKR; “PADI” RHGKG=HGKGDFLA100; LRHGKG=LAGRHGKG; RHPP=HPPDFLA100; LRHPP=LAGRHPP; PRHPP=RHPP-LRHPP; LATPD=LAGATPD; 223 Lampiran 5. Lanjutan LQGKG=LAGQGKG; RHDBR=LAGHDBRDFLA100; LDGKG=LAGDGKG; TTDF =TDFHTI + TDFSW + TDFKR + TDFPD; “BLOK DEGRADASI HUTAN” RHEKL=HEKLEXRDFLA100; RHKHA=HKBHAEXRDFLA100; LRHKHA=LAGRHKHA; L2QILL=LAG2QILL; LQILL=LAGQILL; LAHPH=LAGAHPH; RDR=DRDFLA100; RPSDH=PSDHDFLA100; LQKBHA=LAGQKBHA; LDKBKG=LAGDKBKG; LDKBKL=LAGDKBKL; Q=QILL+QKBHA; RUN; PERINTAH VALIDASI PROC MODEL DATA=OLAH THEIL STATS NDEC=2; ENDOGENOUS R RR UIP EXR RPPJK RG RI RNX RC RY IHK EMP UNEMP LRPPJK LRG L2RR LRI LRNX LRY LR LRMS LEXR LEMP LRW 224 Lampiran 5. Lanjutan TDFHTI QKHTI DKHTI RHKHTI L2RHEPU LAHTI LQKHTI LRHEPU LDKHTI LRHKHTI TDFSW QBSW DBSW RHBSW L3RR LRHKHTI LATSW LRHBSW LQBSW LDBSW TDFKR QKR DDKR QXKR RHDKR LATKR LQKR LRR LDDKR LRHEKR L2RHDKR LUSGDP LQXKR LRHDKR TDFPD QGKG DGKG RHGKG LATPD LQGKG LRHPP LDGKG LRHGKG TTDF TDGHPH QILL QKBHA DKBKG DKBKL RHKHA L2QILL LRHEMSW LAHPH LQILL LRHKHA LQKBHA LDKBKG LDKBKL ; 225 Lampiran 5. Lanjutan INSTRUMENTS OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB ; PARAMETERS a0 -56417.51 a1 0.750511 a2 -1421.586 b0 -58992.19 b1 0.153017 b2 -156.8430 b3 0.039132 c0 10143.62 c1 0.424322 c2 127.5101 c3 0.266048 d0 74462.03 d1 -1654.394 d2 0.224192 d3 -183634.0 d4 0.042195 e0 170114.6 e1 13.56636 e2 -0.177489 e3 -311.6503 e4 0.069802 f0 12.01211 f1 -1.67E-05 f2 1.357908 f3 0.206645 f4 10.88883 f5 -11.67211 f6 0.112403 g0 -10.80682 g1 1.82E-05 g2 0.963798 h0 274.6091 h1 -84.16786 h2 -0.009667 h3 0.001464 h4 1732.817 h5 0.916711 i0 9.569870 i1 -4.01E-07 i2 3.66E-06 i3 0.850619 j0 6016.618 j1 0.000108 j2 -5.292850 J3 -20.05732 J4 -0.004082 J5 -0.778556 J6 0.000131 J7 -0.000199 J8-0.000330 J9 1237.097 J10 -0.532633 k0 -6381.576 k1 12.86628 k2 -71.09410 k3 3093.358 k4 0.835054 k5 0.543766 l0 3607.390 l1 -2.353228 l2 -274.6870 l3 -0.004142 l4 0.000491 l5 0.025669 l6 0.819260 m0 18.82956 m1 7.96E-06 m2 -1.28E-05 m3 -0.000813 m4 0.936295 n0 609.7858 n1 0.000102 n2 -0.639404 n3 -16.22272 n4 -0.000218 n5 - 1.465558 n6 0.001137 n7 -0.222924 o0 -43931.98 o1 0.045690 o2 -4.365651 o3 4507.690 o4 9.768787 o5 0.031463 p0 -2240.855 p1 -23.33913 p2 -290.5749 p3 -0.010631 p4 1.367105 p5 0.022292 p6 0.656303 q0 81.57648 q1 4.08E-05 q2 0.001926 q3 0.117844 r0 606.9273 r1 0.001077 r2 -8.230076 r3 -9.18E-05 r4 -1.15E-05 r5 6.06E-06 r6 -0.161324 s0 -1304.818 s1 0.002637 s2 -0.774956 s3 3139.824 s4 0.380744 s5 0.074075 t0 106.6144 t1 -0.010171 t2 -5.828949 t3 0.000375 t4 0.846774 u0 2.390472 u1 1.29E-05 u2 -0.015125 u3 0.043709 u4 0.082284 v0 4283.563 v1 7.43E-05 v2 3.674619 v3 -2.365590 v4 0.202657 w0 -8932.421 w1 0.348219 w2 0.503538 w3 -29.89181 w4 -0.169767 w5 - 0.000891 w6 3.953993 w7 48.56133 w8 -0.175141 226 Lampiran 5. Lanjutan x0 -14874.88 x1 0.512634 x2 -60.46712 x3 -0.299394 x4 4012.332 x5 0.953306 y0 27606.61 y1 -0.645931 y2 -49.54460 y3 -2.135224 y4 0.997525 y5 0.011510 y6 0.170233 z0 2081.029 z1 0.177328 z2 -0.026394 z3 0.389236 aa0 15298.41 aa1 0.003540 aa2 -0.009923 aa3 -540.0948 aa4 -0.427461 aa5 -0.001537 aa6 -0.000171 aa7 -1108.177 aa8 -0.138803 bb0 3297.057 bb1 0.000758 bb2 -131.7571 bb3 -2.980244 bb4 -0.021163 bb5 435.8382 bb6 419.6691 bb7 0.398822 cc0 -10537.70 cc1 0.002810 cc2 -209.7087 cc3 -0.494821 cc4 765.9082 cc5 0.369004 cc6 0.276578 dd0 -2237.476 dd1 -0.001864 dd2 16.06732 dd3 -208.4581 dd4 -0.000851 dd5 0.000965 dd6 0.744542 ee0 897.3071 ee1 -0.003402 ee2 5.518416 ee3 -33.40311 ee4 -0.004357 ee5 0.000612 ee6 0.011809 ee7 0.955296 ff0 309719.4 ff1 0.129333 ff2 -15.45845 ff3 0.551386 ; RC = a0 + a1RYD + a2RR ; RPPJK = b0 + b1RY + b2RR + b3LRPPJK; RG = c0 + c1RPPJK + c2OILP + c3LRG; RI = d0 + d1L2RR + d2RY + d3KRISIS + d4LRI ; RNX = e0 + e1EXRIHKUSCPI + e2RY + e3OILP + e4LRNX; R = f0 + f1LRMS + f2IHK-LIHK + f3EXPINF + f4KRISIS + f5FER + f6LR; IHK = g0 + g1LRY + g2LIHK ; EXR = h0 + h1UIP + h2LRNX + h3RMS + h4KRISIS + h5LEXR ; EMP = i0 + i1LRW + i2RY + i3LEMP; RY = RC + RI + RG + RNX ; RR = R-DINF; UIP = RR -RFRATE ; UNEMP = LF - EMP; LRPPJK = LAGRPPJK; LRG = LAGRG; L2RR=LAG2RR; LRI = LAGRI; 227 Lampiran 5. Lanjutan LRNX = LAGRNX; LRY = LAGRY; LR = LAGR; LRMS=LAGRMS; LEXR = LAGEXR; LEMP = LAGEMP; LRW = LAGRW; TDFHTI = j0 + j1L2RHEPU + j2RHKHTI + j3RR-L2RR + j4RW + j5RHBBM + j6RHEKR + j7RHEMSW + j8RHEKL + j9PPHTI + j10LAHTI; QKHTI = k0 + k1RHKHTI + k2RR + k3PRODHTI + k4AHTI + k5LQKHTI; DKHTI = l0 + l1RHKHTI + l2RR + l3RW + l4RHEPU-LRHEPU + l5RY-LRY + l6LDKHTI; RHKHTI = m0 + m1RHEPU-LRHEPU + m2RHKHA + m3LQKHTI + m4LRHKHTI; DKHTI = QKHTI; TDFSW = n0 + n1RHEMSW + n2RHBSW + n3L3RR + n4RW + n5LRHKHTI + n6LRHKHA + n7LATSW ; QBSW = o0 + o1LRHBSW + o2RR + o3PRODSW + o4ATSW + o5LQBSW ; DBSW = p0 + p1RHBSW + p2RR + p3RW + p4RHDMSW + p5RY + p6LDBSW; RHBSW = q0 + q1RHEMSW + q2DBSW + q3LRHBSW; QBSW = DBSW; L3RR = LAG3RR; LRHKHTI = LAGRHKHTI; LATSW=LAGATSW; LRHBSW=LAGRHBSW; LQBSW=LAGQBSW; LDBSW = LAGDBSW; TDFKR = r0 + r1RHDKR + r2RR + r3RHKHA + r4RHEMSW + r5RHEKR + r6LATKR ; QKR = s0 + s1RHDKR + s2RR + s3PRODKR + s4ATKR + s5LQKR; DDKR = t0 + t1RHDKR + t2LRR + t3RY-LRY + t4LDDKR; QXKR =u0 + u1LRHEKR + u2L2RHDKR + u3LUSGDP + u4LQXKR; RHDKR = v0 + v1RHEKR-LRHEKR + v2QXKR + v3QKR + v4LRHDKR; QKR = DDKR + QXKR; 228 Lampiran 5. Lanjutan LATKR = LAGATKR; LQKR = LAGQKR; LRR=LAGRR; LDDKR = LAGDDKR; LRHEKR =LAGRHEKR; L2RHDKR = LAG2RHDKR; LUSGDP =LAGUSGDP; LQXKR = LAGQXKR; LRHDKR=LAGRHDKR; TDFPD = w0 + w1RHGKG + w2RHPP + w3RR + w4RHBBM + w5RHKHA + w6RHKHTI + w7POP + w8LATPD; QGKG = x0 + x1RHGKG + x2RR + x3RHBBM + x4PRODPD + x5LQGKG; DGKG = y0 + y1LRHPP + y2RR + y3RHBBM + y4RHDBR + y5RY + y6LDGKG; RHGKG = z0 + z1RHPP-LRHPP + z2QGKG + z3LRHGKG; QGKG = DGKG; TTDF = TDFHTI + TDFSW + TDFKR + TDFPD; TDGHPH = aa0 + aa1RHEKL + aa2RHKHA + aa3RR + aa4L2QILL + aa5LRHEMSW + aa6LRHEKR + aa7KPIHPH + aa8LAHPH; QILL = bb0 + bb1RHKHA + bb2RR + bb3RHBBM + bb4RDR + bb5PRODHA + bb6PKUM + bb7LQILL ; QKBHA = cc0 + cc1LRHKHA + cc2LRR + cc3RPSDH + cc4PRODHA + cc5AHPH + cc6LQKBHA; DKBKG = dd0 + dd1RHKHA + dd2RHKHTI + dd3RR + dd4RW + dd5RY + dd6LDKBKG; DKBKL = ee0 + ee1RHKHA + ee2RHKHTI + ee3 LRR + ee4RW + ee5RHEKL + ee6RY-LRY + ee7LDKBKL; RHKHA = ff0 + ff1RHEKL + ff2QILL+QKBHA + ff3LRHKHA; QKBHA + QILL = DKBKG + DKBKL + QXKB ; L2QILL = LAG2QILL; LRHEMSW = LAGRHEMSW; LAHPH = LAGAHPH; LQILL = LAGQILL; LRHKHA = LAGRHKHA; LQKBHA = LAGQKBHA; LDKBKG = LAGDKBKG; LDKBKL = LAGDKBKL; 229 Lampiran 5. Lanjutan RANGE TAHUN = 1983 TO 2008; SOLVE R RR UIP EXR RPPJK RG RI RNX RC RY IHK EMP UNEMP LRPPJK LRG L2RR LRI LRNX LRY LR LRMS LEXR LEMP LRW TDFHTI QKHTI DKHTI RHKHTI L2RHEPU LAHTI LQKHTI LRHEPU LDKHTI LRHKHTI TDFSW QBSW DBSW RHBSW L3RR LRHKHTI LATSW LRHBSW LQBSW LDBSW TDFKR QKR DDKR QXKR RHDKR LATKR LQKR LRR LDDKR LRHEKR L2RHDKR LUSGDP LQXKR LRHDKR 230 Lampiran 5. Lanjutan TDFPD QGKG DGKG RHGKG LATPD LQGKG LRHPP LDGKG LRHGKG TTDF TDGHPH QILL QKBHA DKBKG DKBKL RHKHA L2QILL LRHEMSW LAHPH LQILL LRHKHA LQKBHA LDKBKG LDKBKL OUTPREDICT ; RUN ; 231 Lampiran 6. Hasil Validasi Model Ekonomi Deforestasi dan Degradasi Hutan Alam Menggunakan Metode Newton, Prosedur SYSNLIN, Software SAS versi 9.0 The MODEL Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range TAHUN = 1983 To 2008 Descriptive Statistics Actual Predicted Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev R 26 26 14.1908 11.0892 14.0273 4.5906 RR 26 26 2.9010 5.5753 2.7375 13.8923 UIP 26 26 0.7466 5.1916 0.5831 14.1443 EXR 26 26 6622.7 4944.0 6720.1 4797.1 REXR 26 26 6956.0 7313.7 6841.0 6921.6 RPPJK 26 26 129891 66351.2 129024 70501.3 RG 26 26 98172.8 32781.6 98336.6 33363.8 RI 26 26 321683 134461 330995 122323 RNX 26 26 33849.9 74842.4 31354.4 48829.4 RC 26 26 742744 301174 740155 283907 RY 26 26 1196450 440139 1200841 442038 IHK 26 26 75.2057 60.2377 75.2200 60.0676 EMP 26 26 82.2600 11.9070 82.3260 11.7369 UNEMP 26 26 5.2146 3.4952 5.1799 3.6401 LRPPJK 26 26 120762 62560.2 120011 67090.0 LRI 26 26 303421 123769 315077 117952 LRG 26 26 93787.1 29496.4 94117.1 30617.3 LRNX 26 26 32977.7 75118.0 30278.4 49229.6 LRY 26 26 1136763 419942 1141836 424138 LR 26 26 14.5281 11.0431 14.1760 4.6327 LRMS 26 26 501474 256026 501474 256026 LEXR 26 26 6279.7 5031.9 6341.8 4866.2 LEMP 26 26 80.5389 12.0893 80.6082 11.9379 LRW 26 26 513077 174259 513077 174259 TDFHTI 26 26 275.0 490.5 291.3 624.5 QKHTI 26 26 4079.5 7167.2 3972.5 7626.5 DKHTI 26 26 4079.5 7167.2 3972.5 7626.5 RHKHTI 26 26 350.8 155.3 345.4 112.3 L2RHEPU 26 26 3928551 1418815 3928551 1418815 LRHEPU 26 26 3926454 1421881 3926454 1421881 LAHTI 26 26 2291.7 2617.0 2291.7 2617.0 LQKHTI 26 26 3221.1 6161.2 3129.4 6720.8 LDKHTI 26 26 3221.1 6161.2 3129.4 6720.8 TDFSW 26 26 270.5 256.5 257.3 247.5 QBSW 26 26 28600.5 23830.0 29153.6 23992.0 DBSW 26 26 28600.5 23830.0 29153.6 23992.0 RHBSW 26 26 329.6 85.0738 330.3 64.8785 L3RR 26 26 3.6736 5.2173 2.8987 13.8732 LRHKHTI 26 26 366.7 152.1 361.0 109.3 LRHKHA 26 26 693551 342976 668269 270331 LATSW 26 26 2704.6 2097.1 2704.6 2097.1 LQBSW 26 26 25689.2 21877.9 26286.9 22240.8 LDBSW 26 26 25689.2 21877.9 26286.9 22240.8 TDFKR 26 26 36.1652 77.6525 38.5953 115.4 QKR 26 26 1602.9 508.6 1606.3 567.5 DDKR 26 26 161.6 111.4 205.1 139.9 QXKR 26 26 1441.3 422.8 1401.2 472.9 RHDKR 26 26 7255.1 1339.5 7098.9 696.4 LATKR 26 26 3195.1 316.1 3195.1 316.1 LQKR 26 26 1531.7 469.5 1543.4 550.8 LDDKR 26 26 147.3 92.7519 196.5 139.3 LQXKR 26 26 1384.3 404.2 1346.8 456.6 232 Lampiran 6. Lanjutan LRHEKR 26 26 11210039 7149536 11210039 7149536 TDFPD 26 26 171.3 370.7 167.4 466.3 QGKG 26 26 47989.9 6226.9 48295.8 5927.0 DGKG 26 26 47989.9 6226.9 48295.8 5927.0 RHGKG 26 26 1343.0 461.6 1339.3 314.0 LATPD 26 26 10558.2 1395.8 10558.2 1395.8 LQGKG 26 26 46962.6 6313.0 47349.4 6235.1 LDGKG 26 26 46962.6 6313.0 47349.4 6235.1 TTDF 26 26 753.0 683.0 754.6 1075.1 TDGHPH 26 26 ‐1018.2 3801.4 ‐801.0 6445.6 QILL 26 26 10540.1 3904.1 10601.2 3835.7 QKBHA 26 26 15355.6 9316.1 15488.9 8810.3 DKBKG 26 26 9965.3 7292.3 10040.6 4858.6 DKBKL 26 26 15658.7 5149.8 14677.0 3034.8 RHKHA 26 26 715581 340166 698428 280021 L2QILL 26 26 10818.3 3484.2 10915.4 3319.3 LRHEMSW 26 26 3772992 1196814 3772992 1196814 LAHPH 26 26 47879.0 13194.2 47879.0 13194.2 LQILL 26 26 10719.1 3687.4 10830.5 3500.3 LQKBHA 26 26 15692.0 9067.9 15948.0 8347.8 LDKBKG 26 26 10448.9 7092.4 10571.9 4433.0 LDKBKL 26 26 15555.0 5345.2 14497.0 3466.2 Statistics of fit Mean Mean Mean Abs Mean Abs RMS Variable N Error Error Error Error Error R 26 ‐0.1635 19.9924 5.3969 38.2020 10.2451 RR 26 ‐0.1635 33.6425 5.3969 519.9 10.2451 UIP 26 ‐0.1635 734.9 5.3969 900.4 10.2451 EXR 26 97.4659 10.6358 1087.9 21.4302 1531.6 REXR 26 ‐115.0 10.0331 1117.4 20.8965 1847.1 RPPJK 26 ‐866.9 ‐0.5342 12639.9 11.6899 15805.2 RG 26 163.8 0.7303 9379.7 10.9507 11347.5 RI 26 9312.0 7.7681 75979.2 24.1748 99698.0 RNX 26 ‐2495.5 ‐18.5602 28409.3 107.4 51350.5 RC 26 ‐2588.8 0.8277 36597.8 5.0568 47991.8 RY 26 4391.5 0.8397 52416.1 4.8204 61968.7 IHK 26 0.0142 0.3446 3.9907 6.1430 6.7296 EMP 26 0.0660 0.1615 1.2723 1.5887 1.6880 UNEMP 26 ‐0.0348 ‐9.2247 1.3020 39.9030 1.6937 LRPPJK 26 ‐750.8 ‐0.4911 12523.7 11.6469 15794.1 LRI 26 11656.5 8.1446 73634.7 23.7983 98978.7 LRG 26 329.9 0.8249 9213.6 10.8560 11315.8 LRNX 26 ‐2699.3 ‐19.4876 28205.6 106.5 51340.0 LRY 26 5073.1 0.8724 51734.4 4.7876 61871.1 LR 26 ‐0.3521 17.7792 5.2084 35.9888 10.1999 LRMS 26 0 0 0 0 0 LEXR 26 62.0199 10.2696 1052.5 21.0640 1520.9 LEMP 26 0.0693 0.1647 1.2690 1.5855 1.6879 LRW 26 0 0 0 0 0 TDFHTI 26 16.3312 . 374.9 . 500.0 QKHTI 26 ‐107.0 . 2026.6 . 2502.3 DKHTI 26 ‐107.0 . 2026.6 . 2502.3 RHKHTI 26 ‐5.3976 4.9456 45.0776 14.8183 55.2139 L2RHEPU 26 0 0 0 0 0 LRHEPU 26 0 0 0 0 0 LAHTI 26 0 . 0 . 0 LQKHTI 26 ‐91.6961 . 2011.3 . 2501.1 LDKHTI 26 ‐91.6961 . 2011.3 . 2501.1 TDFSW 26 ‐13.2776 541.9 204.4 593.8 278.5 QBSW 26 553.1 9.0301 4903.6 25.5098 5890.1 DBSW 26 553.1 9.0301 4903.6 25.5098 5890.1 233 Lampiran 6. Lanjutan RHBSW 26 0.7766 2.3905 39.1631 12.3569 49.5883 L3RR 26 ‐0.7749 239.2 4.7855 314.3 10.0545 LRHKHTI 26 ‐5.7238 4.6787 44.7514 14.5514 55.1888 LRHKHA 26 ‐25282.2 0.1246 84684.4 10.3192 125801 LATSW 26 0 0 0 0 0 LQBSW 26 597.7 9.0861 4859.0 25.4538 5885.7 LDBSW 26 597.7 9.0861 4859.0 25.4538 5885.7 TDFKR 26 2.4301 ‐34.1131 69.5260 149.5 103.7 QKR 26 3.4529 ‐0.7689 190.9 12.5704 230.6 DDKR 26 43.5617 65.1492 116.9 127.3 144.2 QXKR 26 ‐40.1088 ‐4.0479 143.9 11.1116 167.5 RHDKR 26 ‐156.2 0.5596 1019.4 14.4287 1229.1 LATKR 26 0 0 0 0 0 LQKR 26 11.7127 ‐0.4687 182.6 12.2702 226.7 LDDKR 26 49.1847 66.3504 111.3 126.1 141.4 LQXKR 26 ‐37.4720 ‐3.9325 141.3 10.9961 166.9 LRHEKR 26 0 0 0 0 0 TDFPD 26 ‐3.9481 293379 402.7 293599 525.1 QGKG 26 305.9 0.8531 1738.8 3.7505 2067.4 DGKG 26 305.9 0.8531 1738.8 3.7505 2067.4 RHGKG 26 ‐3.6843 4.7171 244.0 18.5087 310.0 LATPD 26 0 0 0 0 0 LQGKG 26 386.8 0.9872 1657.9 3.6163 2025.8 LDGKG 26 386.8 0.9872 1657.9 3.6163 2025.8 TTDF 26 1.5356 ‐80.9076 591.0 1070.3 818.8 TDGHPH 26 217.2 . 3812.0 . 6280.3 QILL 26 61.0601 2.9550 1837.8 19.4000 2476.1 QKBHA 26 133.3 12.7602 2380.9 34.3268 3268.0 DKBKG 26 75.2301 108.4 5270.6 154.5 6066.9 DKBKL 26 ‐981.7 ‐0.2401 2885.7 19.1891 3322.3 RHKHA 26 ‐17152.9 0.9811 92813.7 11.1758 132454 L2QILL 26 97.1430 3.6609 1773.3 17.5162 2461.7 LRHEMSW 26 0 0 0 0 0 LAHPH 26 0 0 0 0 0 LQILL 26 111.4 4.2498 1787.5 18.1052 2462.8 LQKBHA 26 256.0 15.4101 2258.3 31.6770 3207.6 LDKBKG 26 123.0 112.9 5222.9 150.0 6062.0 LDKBKL 26 ‐1058.0 ‐1.2634 2809.5 18.1658 3299.5 The MODEL Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range TAHUN = 1983 To 2008 Statistics of fit RMS Variable Error R‐Square Label R 50.2578 0.1123 R RR 1464.2 ‐2.512 UIP 3619.6 ‐3.050 EXR 33.0772 0.9002 EXR REXR 30.2444 0.9337 RPPJK 14.7545 0.9410 RG 13.8292 0.8754 RI 29.4348 0.4282 RNX 205.4 0.5104 RC 6.4702 0.9736 RY 5.5535 0.9794 IHK 9.1325 0.9870 IHK EMP 2.2150 0.9791 EMP UNEMP 77.1481 0.7558 UNEMP LRPPJK 14.7528 0.9337 LRI 29.3721 0.3349 LRG 13.8207 0.8469 234 Lampiran 6. Lanjutan LRNX 205.3 0.5142 LRY 5.5510 0.9774 LR 48.9744 0.1128 LRMS 0 1.0000 LEXR 33.0244 0.9050 LEMP 2.2149 0.9797 LRW 0 1.0000 TDFHTI . ‐.0809 TDFHTI QKHTI . 0.8732 QKHTI DKHTI . 0.8732 DKHTI RHKHTI 19.9409 0.8686 L2RHEPU 0 1.0000 LRHEPU 0 1.0000 LAHTI . 1.0000 LQKHTI . 0.8286 LDKHTI . 0.8286 TDFSW 2383.4 ‐.2266 TDFSW QBSW 31.7273 0.9365 QBSW DBSW 31.7273 0.9365 DBSW RHBSW 15.8882 0.6467 L3RR 1053.5 ‐2.862 LRHKHTI 19.8943 0.8630 LRHKHA 12.9282 0.8601 LATSW 0 1.0000 LQBSW 31.7260 0.9247 LDBSW 31.7260 0.9247 TDFKR 250.8 ‐.8562 TDFKR QKR 15.1035 0.7862 QKR DDKR 188.0 ‐.7436 DDKR QXKR 13.9520 0.8368 QXKR RHDKR 17.3561 0.1243 LATKR 0 1.0000 LQKR 15.0257 0.7574 LDDKR 187.9 ‐1.416 LQXKR 13.9396 0.8227 LRHEKR 0 1.0000 TDFPD 1495803 ‐1.087 TDFPD QGKG 4.5748 0.8854 QGKG DGKG 4.5748 0.8854 DGKG RHGKG 23.7177 0.5310 LATPD 0 1.0000 LQGKG 4.5234 0.8929 LDGKG 4.5234 0.8929 TTDF 3224.7 ‐.4947 TDGHPH . ‐1.839 TDGHPH QILL 27.3958 0.5817 QILL QKBHA 58.7065 0.8720 QKBHA DKBKG 274.3 0.2802 DKBKG DKBKL 23.2064 0.5671 DKBKL RHKHA 13.6460 0.8423 L2QILL 26.4182 0.4809 LRHEMSW 0 1.0000 LAHPH 0 1.0000 LQILL 26.5884 0.5361 LQKBHA 57.1305 0.8699 LDKBKG 273.4 0.2402 LDKBKL 22.6122 0.6037 235 Lampiran 6. Lanjutan The MODEL Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range TAHUN = 1983 To 2008 Theil Forecast Error Statistics Corr Variable N MSE R R 26 105.0 0.34 RR 26 105.0 0.74 UIP 26 105.0 0.80 EXR 26 2345875 0.95 REXR 26 3411948 0.97 RPPJK 26 2.498E8 0.97 RG 26 1.2877E8 0.94 RI 26 9.9397E9 0.69 RNX 26 2.6369E9 0.72 RC 26 2.3032E9 0.99 RY 26 3.8401E9 0.99 IHK 26 45.2881 0.99 EMP 26 2.8493 0.99 UNEMP 26 2.8687 0.88 LRPPJK 26 2.4945E8 0.97 LRI 26 9.7968E9 0.66 LRG 26 1.2805E8 0.93 LRNX 26 2.6358E9 0.72 LRY 26 3.828E9 0.99 LR 26 104.0 0.35 LRMS 26 0 . LEXR 26 2313209 0.95 LEMP 26 2.8490 0.99 LRW 26 0 . TDFHTI 26 250018 0.61 QKHTI 26 6261715 0.94 DKHTI 26 6261715 0.94 RHKHTI 26 3048.6 0.96 L2RHEPU 26 0 . LRHEPU 26 0 . LAHTI 26 0 . LQKHTI 26 6255628 0.93 LDKHTI 26 6255628 0.93 TDFSW 26 77574.9 0.37 QBSW 26 34693062 0.97 DBSW 26 34693062 0.97 RHBSW 26 2459.0 0.81 L3RR 26 101.1 0.80 LRHKHTI 26 3045.8 0.96 LRHKHA 26 1.583E10 0.94 LATSW 26 0 . LQBSW 26 34641224 0.96 LDBSW 26 34641224 0.96 TDFKR 26 10762.0 0.46 QKR 26 53187.4 0.91 DDKR 26 20805.8 0.40 QXKR 26 28041.8 0.94 RHDKR 26 1510679 0.39 LATKR 26 0 . LQKR 26 51413.6 0.91 LDDKR 26 19983.8 0.38 LQXKR 26 27861.0 0.93 LRHEKR 26 0 . TDFPD 26 275698 0.20 QGKG 26 4274188 0.94 DGKG 26 4274188 0.94 RHGKG 26 96080.7 0.73 236 Lampiran 6. Lanjutan LATPD 26 0 . LQGKG 26 4103990 0.95 LDGKG 26 4103990 0.95 TTDF 26 670472 0.63 TDGHPH 26 39441668 0.31 QILL 26 6130916 0.79 QKBHA 26 10679809 0.93 DKBKG 26 36806869 0.54 DKBKL 26 11038001 0.81 RHKHA 26 1.754E10 0.92 L2QILL 26 6059890 0.73 LRHEMSW 26 0 . LAHPH 26 0 . LQILL 26 6065143 0.76 LQKBHA 26 10288619 0.93 LDKBKG 26 36747645 0.50 LDKBKL 26 10886794 0.82 The MODEL Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range TAHUN = 1983 To 2008 Theil Forecast Error Statistics MSE Decomposition Proportions Bias Reg Dist Var Covar Inequality Coef Variable UM UR UD US UC U1 U R 0.00 0.01 0.99 0.39 0.61 0.5731 0.3142 RR 0.00 0.87 0.13 0.63 0.37 1.6554 0.5101 UIP 0.00 0.91 0.09 0.73 0.27 1.9912 0.5384 EXR 0.00 0.00 0.99 0.01 0.99 0.1866 0.0933 REXR 0.00 0.01 0.99 0.04 0.95 0.1849 0.0941 RPPJK 0.00 0.13 0.86 0.07 0.93 0.1088 0.0542 RG 0.00 0.05 0.95 0.00 1.00 0.1098 0.0548 RI 0.01 0.08 0.91 0.01 0.98 0.2868 0.1425 RNX 0.00 0.01 0.99 0.25 0.75 0.6354 0.3720 RC 0.00 0.08 0.92 0.12 0.87 0.0600 0.0302 RY 0.01 0.01 0.98 0.00 0.99 0.0487 0.0243 IHK 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 1.00 0.0704 0.0352 EMP 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.01 0.99 0.0203 0.0102 UNEMP 0.00 0.10 0.90 0.01 0.99 0.2714 0.1352 LRPPJK 0.00 0.15 0.84 0.08 0.92 0.1166 0.0580 LRI 0.01 0.13 0.85 0.00 0.98 0.3029 0.1494 LRG 0.00 0.08 0.92 0.01 0.99 0.1153 0.0575 LRNX 0.00 0.01 0.99 0.24 0.75 0.6361 0.3729 LRY 0.01 0.02 0.97 0.00 0.99 0.0512 0.0255 LR 0.00 0.01 0.99 0.38 0.62 0.5629 0.3090 LRMS . . . . . 0.0000 0.0000 LEXR 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.01 0.99 0.1904 0.0955 LEMP 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.01 0.99 0.0207 0.0104 LRW . . . . . 0.0000 0.0000 TDFHTI 0.00 0.41 0.59 0.07 0.93 0.9025 0.4058 QKHTI 0.00 0.12 0.88 0.03 0.97 0.3079 0.1508 DKHTI 0.00 0.12 0.88 0.03 0.97 0.3079 0.1508 RHKHTI 0.01 0.44 0.55 0.58 0.41 0.1444 0.0741 L2RHEPU . . . . . 0.0000 0.0000 LRHEPU . . . . . 0.0000 0.0000 LAHTI . . . . . 0.0000 0.0000 LQKHTI 0.00 0.16 0.84 0.05 0.95 0.3653 0.1769 LDKHTI 0.00 0.16 0.84 0.05 0.95 0.3653 0.1769 TDFSW 0.00 0.29 0.71 0.00 1.00 0.7540 0.3852 QBSW 0.01 0.02 0.97 0.00 0.99 0.1595 0.0792 DBSW 0.01 0.02 0.97 0.00 0.99 0.1595 0.0792 237 Lampiran 6. Lanjutan RHBSW 0.00 0.01 0.99 0.16 0.84 0.1459 0.0733 L3RR 0.01 0.90 0.10 0.71 0.28 1.5964 0.4976 LRHKHTI 0.01 0.43 0.56 0.58 0.41 0.1394 0.0715 LRHKHA 0.04 0.17 0.79 0.32 0.64 0.1632 0.0844 LATSW . . . . . 0.0000 0.0000 LQBSW 0.01 0.04 0.95 0.00 0.99 0.1759 0.0870 LDBSW 0.01 0.04 0.95 0.00 0.99 0.1759 0.0870 TDFKR 0.00 0.57 0.43 0.13 0.87 1.2307 0.5088 QKR 0.00 0.20 0.80 0.06 0.94 0.1374 0.0683 DDKR 0.09 0.42 0.48 0.04 0.87 0.7395 0.3265 QXKR 0.06 0.20 0.74 0.09 0.86 0.1117 0.0563 RHDKR 0.02 0.02 0.97 0.26 0.72 0.1667 0.0847 LATKR . . . . . 0.0000 0.0000 LQKR 0.00 0.29 0.71 0.12 0.87 0.1418 0.0701 LDDKR 0.12 0.52 0.36 0.10 0.77 0.8164 0.3427 LQXKR 0.05 0.22 0.73 0.09 0.85 0.1159 0.0584 LRHEKR . . . . . 0.0000 0.0000 TDFPD 0.00 0.54 0.46 0.03 0.97 1.3066 0.5908 QGKG 0.02 0.00 0.98 0.02 0.96 0.0427 0.0213 DGKG 0.02 0.00 0.98 0.02 0.96 0.0427 0.0213 RHGKG 0.00 0.01 0.99 0.22 0.78 0.2187 0.1110 LATPD . . . . . 0.0000 0.0000 LQGKG 0.04 0.01 0.95 0.00 0.96 0.0428 0.0213 LDGKG 0.04 0.01 0.95 0.00 0.96 0.0428 0.0213 TTDF 0.00 0.60 0.40 0.22 0.78 0.8125 0.3554 TDGHPH 0.00 0.68 0.32 0.17 0.83 1.6253 0.6136 QILL 0.00 0.09 0.91 0.00 1.00 0.2208 0.1102 QKBHA 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.02 0.98 0.1829 0.0918 DKBKG 0.00 0.02 0.98 0.15 0.85 0.4946 0.2595 DKBKL 0.09 0.11 0.80 0.39 0.52 0.2019 0.1057 RHKHA 0.02 0.07 0.92 0.20 0.78 0.1678 0.0860 L2QILL 0.00 0.10 0.90 0.00 0.99 0.2170 0.1083 LRHEMSW . . . . . 0.0000 0.0000 LAHPH . . . . . 0.0000 0.0000 LQILL 0.00 0.08 0.92 0.01 0.99 0.2177 0.1086 LQKBHA 0.01 0.00 0.99 0.05 0.95 0.1778 0.0892 LDKBKG 0.00 0.02 0.98 0.19 0.81 0.4830 0.2528 LDKBKL 0.10 0.08 0.82 0.31 0.59 0.2010 0.1054 238 Lampiran 6. Lanjutan The MODEL Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range TAHUN = 1983 To 2008 Theil Relative Change Forecast Error Statistics Relative Change Corr Variable N MSE R R 26 0.3186 0.36 RR 26 77.3196 0.83 UIP 26 409.4 1.00 EXR 26 0.1411 0.55 REXR 26 0.1345 0.67 RPPJK 26 0.0269 0.50 RG 26 0.0183 0.41 RI 26 0.1104 0.64 RNX 26 18.1767 0.85 RC 26 0.00464 0.52 RY 26 0.00346 0.70 IHK 26 0.0177 0.29 EMP 26 0.000506 0.64 UNEMP 26 0.4653 0.50 LRPPJK 26 0.0268 0.50 LRI 26 0.1098 0.65 LRG 26 0.0183 0.41 LRNX 26 18.1765 0.85 LRY 26 0.00345 0.71 LR 26 0.2949 0.34 LRMS 26 0 . LEXR 26 0.1407 0.56 LEMP 26 0.000506 0.66 LRW 26 0 . TDFHTI 26 . . QKHTI 26 . . DKHTI 26 . . RHKHTI 26 0.0323 0.36 L2RHEPU 26 0 . LRHEPU 26 0 . LAHTI 26 . . LQKHTI 26 . . LDKHTI 26 . . TDFSW 26 397.9 1.00 QBSW 26 0.1271 0.11 DBSW 26 0.1271 0.11 RHBSW 26 0.0249 0.83 L3RR 25 43.0162 0.97 LRHKHTI 26 0.0321 0.37 LRHKHA 26 0.0207 0.77 LATSW 26 0 . LQBSW 26 0.1271 0.08 LDBSW 26 0.1271 0.08 TDFKR 26 11.9242 0.56 QKR 26 0.0245 0.10 DDKR 26 6.2663 0.77 QXKR 26 0.0223 0.23 RHDKR 26 0.0368 0.69 LATKR 26 0 . LQKR 26 0.0243 0.12 LDDKR 26 6.2595 0.78 LQXKR 26 0.0223 0.21 LRHEKR 26 0 . TDFPD 26 3.2459E8 1.00 239 Lampiran 6. Lanjutan QGKG 26 0.00222 0.47 DGKG 26 0.00222 0.47 RHGKG 26 0.0517 0.46 LATPD 26 0 . LQGKG 26 0.00217 0.49 LDGKG 26 0.00217 0.49 TTDF 26 990.8 0.92 TDGHPH 26 . . QILL 26 0.1035 0.62 QKBHA 26 0.3998 0.56 DKBKG 26 4.5322 0.34 DKBKL 26 0.0437 0.42 RHKHA 26 0.0221 0.74 L2QILL 26 0.0919 0.99 LRHEMSW 26 0 . LAHPH 26 0 . LQILL 26 0.0922 0.70 LQKBHA 26 0.3904 0.54 LDKBKG 26 4.4893 0.34 LDKBKL 26 0.0412 0.51 The MODEL Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range TAHUN = 1983 To 2008 Theil Relative Change Forecast Error Statistics MSE Decomposition Proportions Bias Reg Dist Var Covar Inequality Coef Variable UM UR UD US UC U1 U R 0.04 0.41 0.55 0.02 0.95 1.2329 0.5540 RR 0.00 0.47 0.53 0.22 0.78 0.7366 0.3160 UIP 0.05 0.94 0.01 0.93 0.01 0.6289 0.2397 EXR 0.09 0.58 0.33 0.20 0.71 1.2928 0.4799 REXR 0.05 0.10 0.85 0.01 0.94 0.7151 0.3531 RPPJK 0.00 0.62 0.38 0.18 0.81 1.1064 0.4648 RG 0.00 0.63 0.37 0.16 0.84 1.3430 0.5345 RI 0.07 0.56 0.37 0.21 0.71 1.1879 0.4519 RNX 0.00 0.14 0.86 0.41 0.59 0.5628 0.3418 RC 0.01 0.52 0.46 0.12 0.87 0.8782 0.3833 RY 0.03 0.67 0.30 0.35 0.63 0.8244 0.3378 IHK 0.00 0.05 0.95 0.24 0.76 0.7562 0.4378 EMP 0.00 0.28 0.71 0.02 0.98 0.6722 0.3207 UNEMP 0.00 0.91 0.09 0.61 0.38 2.7057 0.6679 LRPPJK 0.00 0.62 0.38 0.19 0.81 1.1034 0.4635 LRI 0.08 0.56 0.36 0.23 0.69 1.2142 0.4557 LRG 0.00 0.63 0.37 0.16 0.84 1.3434 0.5337 LRNX 0.00 0.14 0.86 0.41 0.59 0.5627 0.3417 LRY 0.03 0.67 0.30 0.35 0.62 0.8339 0.3401 LR 0.02 0.39 0.59 0.01 0.97 1.2004 0.5619 LRMS . . . . . 0.0000 0.0000 LEXR 0.08 0.58 0.33 0.20 0.71 1.2919 0.4799 LEMP 0.00 0.26 0.73 0.02 0.98 0.6441 0.3083 LRW . . . . . 0.0000 0.0000 TDFHTI . . . . . . . QKHTI . . . . . . . DKHTI . . . . . . . RHKHTI 0.05 0.62 0.34 0.15 0.80 1.4784 0.5927 L2RHEPU . . . . . 0.0000 0.0000 LRHEPU . . . . . 0.0000 0.0000 LAHTI . . . . . . . LQKHTI . . . . . . . LDKHTI . . . . . . . TDFSW 0.06 0.93 0.01 0.92 0.02 0.7024 0.2605 240 Lampiran 6. Lanjutan QBSW 0.08 0.86 0.06 0.51 0.42 2.3361 0.6364 DBSW 0.08 0.86 0.06 0.51 0.42 2.3361 0.6364 RHBSW 0.00 0.01 0.99 0.16 0.84 0.5415 0.3027 L3RR 0.03 0.84 0.13 0.77 0.21 0.6324 0.2467 LRHKHTI 0.04 0.61 0.35 0.14 0.82 1.4593 0.5884 LRHKHA 0.00 0.32 0.68 0.07 0.93 0.7497 0.3424 LATSW . . . . . 0.0000 0.0000 LQBSW 0.08 0.87 0.06 0.51 0.41 2.3138 0.6341 LDBSW 0.08 0.87 0.06 0.51 0.41 2.3138 0.6341 TDFKR 0.15 0.03 0.82 0.09 0.76 0.9147 0.5121 QKR 0.00 0.89 0.11 0.42 0.58 2.2956 0.6965 DDKR 0.15 0.77 0.08 0.61 0.24 2.1884 0.5608 QXKR 0.09 0.67 0.24 0.18 0.73 1.7097 0.6589 RHDKR 0.02 0.00 0.98 0.21 0.78 0.7148 0.4293 LATKR . . . . . 0.0000 0.0000 LQKR 0.00 0.88 0.12 0.39 0.61 2.2441 0.6901 LDDKR 0.16 0.77 0.08 0.61 0.24 2.1868 0.5604 LQXKR 0.09 0.68 0.23 0.19 0.73 1.7198 0.6627 LRHEKR . . . . . 0.0000 0.0000 TDFPD 0.04 0.96 0.00 0.96 0.00 30.3869 0.9382 QGKG 0.03 0.62 0.35 0.19 0.78 1.2021 0.4704 DGKG 0.03 0.62 0.35 0.19 0.78 1.2021 0.4704 RHGKG 0.00 0.04 0.96 0.16 0.84 0.9076 0.5523 LATPD . . . . . 0.0000 0.0000 LQGKG 0.05 0.62 0.33 0.20 0.75 1.2252 0.4700 LDGKG 0.05 0.62 0.33 0.20 0.75 1.2252 0.4700 TTDF 0.03 0.06 0.91 0.19 0.78 0.4081 0.2254 TDGHPH . . . . . . . QILL 0.00 0.47 0.52 0.11 0.88 1.0872 0.4593 QKBHA 0.02 0.82 0.15 0.49 0.49 2.1165 0.6041 DKBKG 0.15 0.80 0.06 0.53 0.33 3.9113 0.7635 DKBKL 0.00 0.56 0.44 0.10 0.89 1.3499 0.5574 RHKHA 0.00 0.31 0.69 0.06 0.94 0.7740 0.3542 L2QILL 0.02 0.01 0.97 0.00 0.98 0.1314 0.0654 LRHEMSW . . . . . 0.0000 0.0000 LAHPH . . . . . 0.0000 0.0000 LQILL 0.02 0.48 0.51 0.16 0.83 0.9974 0.4148 LQKBHA 0.04 0.81 0.16 0.46 0.50 2.1156 0.6076 LDKBKG 0.16 0.78 0.06 0.51 0.33 3.8734 0.7620 LDKBKL 0.01 0.49 0.49 0.09 0.89 1.1821 0.5077 NOTE: Percent error statistics for 7 variables were set to missing values because an actual value was too close to zero to compute the percent error at one or more observations. 241 Lampiran 7. Program Simulasi Model Ekonomi Deforestasi dan Degradasi Hutan Alam Menggunakan Metode Newton, Prosedur SYSNLIN, Software SAS versi 9.0 DATA OLAH; SET AST.MIMA1; “BLOK MAKROEKONOMI” RY=YDFLA 100 ; LRY=LAGRY; PRY=RY-LRY; RPPJK=PPJKDFLA 100 ; LRPPJK=LAGRPPJK; RC=CDFLA 100 ; RYD=RY-RPPJK; RG=GDFLA 100 ; LRG=LAGRG; RI=IDFLA 100 ; LRI=LAGRI; NX = X - M; RNX = NXDFLA 100 ; LRNX=LAGRNX; LR=LAGR; RMS=MSDFLA 100 ; LRMS=LAGRMS; LIHK=LAGIHK; PIHK= IHK-LIHK; LEXR=LAGEXR; RR=R-DINF; LRR=LAGRR; L2RR=LAG2RR; P2RR=RR-L2RR; L3RR=LAG3RR; REXR = EXRIHKUSCPI; LUSCPI=LAGUSCPI; RFRATE = FEDRATE - USCPI-LUSCPILUSCPI 100 ; UIP = RR – RFRATE; OILP=WOILDFLA100; RW=WDFLA100; LRW=LAGRW; LEMP=LAGEMP; UNEMP=LF-EMP; LUSGDP=LAGUSGDP; 242 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan “BLOK DEFORESTASI” “HTI” RHEPU=HEPUEXRDFLA100; L2RHEPU=LAG2RHEPU; PRHEPU=RHEPU-LRHEPU; RHKHTI=HKHTIDFLA100; LRHKHTI=LAGRHKHTI; RHBBM=HBBMDFLA100; LAHTI=LAGAHTI; LQKHTI=LAGQKHTI; LDKHTI=LAGDKHTI; LRHEPU=LAGRHEPU; PRHEPU=RHEPU-LRHEPU; “SAWIT” RHEMSW=HEMSWEXRDFLA100; LRHEMSW=LAGRHEMSW; RHBSW=HBSWDFLA100; LRHBSW=LAGRHBSW; LATSW=LAGATSW; LQBSW=LAGQBSW; LRHDMSW=LAGRHDMSW; LDBSW=LAGDBSW; “KARET” RHDKR=HDKRDFLA100; L2RHDKR=LAG2RHDKR; RHEKR=HEKREXRDFLA100; LRHEKR=LAGRHEKR; PRHEKR=RHEKR-LRHEKR; LATKR=LAGATKR; LQKR=LAGQKR; LDDKR=LAGDDKR; LQXKR=LAGQXKR; “PADI” RHGKG=HGKGDFLA100; LRHGKG=LAGRHGKG; RHPP=HPPDFLA100; LRHPP=LAGRHPP; PRHPP=RHPP-LRHPP; LATPD=LAGATPD; 243 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan LQGKG=LAGQGKG; RHDBR=LAGHDBRDFLA100; LDGKG=LAGDGKG; TTDF =TDFHTI + TDFSW + TDFKR + TDFPD; “BLOK DEGRADASI HUTAN” RHEKL=HEKLEXRDFLA100; RHKHA=HKBHAEXRDFLA100; LRHKHA=LAGRHKHA; L2QILL=LAG2QILL; LQILL=LAGQILL; LAHPH=LAGAHPH; RDR=DRDFLA100; RPSDH=PSDHDFLA100; LQKBHA=LAGQKBHA; LDKBKG=LAGDKBKG; LDKBKL=LAGDKBKL; Q=QILL+QKBHA; SIMULASI KEBIJAKAN FAKTOR EKSTERNAL RMS = RMS1 + 0.2312; RG = RG 1+0.1796; OILP = OILP1+ 0.07; OILP = OILP 1+2.0; RFRATE = RFRATE1+0.01; RFRATE = RFRATE1+0.05; RUN; PERINTAH SIMULASI PROC MODEL DATA=OLAH STATS NDEC=2; ENDOGENOUS R RR UIP EXR RPPJK RG RI RNX RC RY IHK EMP UNEMP LRPPJK LRG L2RR LRI LRNX LRY LR LRMS LEXR 244 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan LEMP LRW TDFHTI QKHTI DKHTI RHKHTI L2RHEPU LAHTI LQKHTI LRHEPU LDKHTI LRHKHTI TDFSW QBSW DBSW RHBSW L3RR LRHKHTI LATSW LRHBSW LQBSW LDBSW TDFKR QKR DDKR QXKR RHDKR LATKR LQKR LRR LDDKR LRHEKR L2RHDKR LUSGDP LQXKR LRHDKR TDFPD QGKG DGKG RHGKG LATPD LQGKG LRHPP LDGKG LRHGKG TTDF TDGHPH QILL QKBHA DKBKG DKBKL RHKHA L2QILL LRHEMSW LAHPH LQILL LRHKHA LQKBHA 245 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan LDKBKG LDKBKL ; INSTRUMENTS OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB ; PARAMETERS a0 -56417.51 a1 0.750511 a2 -1421.586 b0 -58992.19 b1 0.153017 b2 -156.8430 b3 0.039132 c0 10143.62 c1 0.424322 c2 127.5101 c3 0.266048 d0 74462.03 d1 -1654.394 d2 0.224192 d3 -183634.0 d4 0.042195 e0 170114.6 e1 13.56636 e2 -0.177489 e3 -311.6503 e4 0.069802 f0 12.01211 f1 -1.67E-05 f2 1.357908 f3 0.206645 f4 10.88883 f5 -11.67211 f6 0.112403 g0 -10.80682 g1 1.82E-05 g2 0.963798 h0 274.6091 h1 -84.16786 h2 -0.009667 h3 0.001464 h4 1732.817 h5 0.916711 i0 9.569870 i1 -4.01E-07 i2 3.66E-06 i3 0.850619 j0 6016.618 j1 0.000108 j2 -5.292850 J3 -20.05732 J4 -0.004082 J5 -0.778556 J6 0.000131 J7 -0.000199 J8-0.000330 J9 1237.097 J10 -0.532633 k0 -6381.576 k1 12.86628 k2 -71.09410 k3 3093.358 k4 0.835054 k5 0.543766 l0 3607.390 l1 -2.353228 l2 -274.6870 l3 -0.004142 l4 0.000491 l5 0.025669 l6 0.819260 m0 18.82956 m1 7.96E-06 m2 -1.28E-05 m3 -0.000813 m4 0.936295 n0 609.7858 n1 0.000102 n2 -0.639404 n3 -16.22272 n4 -0.000218 n5 - 1.465558 n6 0.001137 n7 -0.222924 o0 -43931.98 o1 0.045690 o2 -4.365651 o3 4507.690 o4 9.768787 o5 0.031463 p0 -2240.855 p1 -23.33913 p2 -290.5749 p3 -0.010631 p4 1.367105 p5 0.022292 p6 0.656303 q0 81.57648 q1 4.08E-05 q2 0.001926 q3 0.117844 r0 606.9273 r1 0.001077 r2 -8.230076 r3 -9.18E-05 r4 -1.15E-05 r5 6.06E-06 r6 -0.161324 s0 -1304.818 s1 0.002637 s2 -0.774956 s3 3139.824 s4 0.380744 s5 0.074075 t0 106.6144 t1 -0.010171 t2 -5.828949 t3 0.000375 t4 0.846774 u0 2.390472 u1 1.29E-05 u2 -0.015125 u3 0.043709 u4 0.082284 v0 4283.563 v1 7.43E-05 v2 3.674619 v3 -2.365590 v4 0.202657 246 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan w0 -8932.421 w1 0.348219 w2 0.503538 w3 -29.89181 w4 -0.169767 w5 - 0.000891 w6 3.953993 w7 48.56133 w8 -0.175141 x0 -14874.88 x1 0.512634 x2 -60.46712 x3 -0.299394 x4 4012.332 x5 0.953306 y0 27606.61 y1 -0.645931 y2 -49.54460 y3 -2.135224 y4 0.997525 y5 0.011510 y6 0.170233 z0 2081.029 z1 0.177328 z2 -0.026394 z3 0.389236 aa0 15298.41 aa1 0.003540 aa2 -0.009923 aa3 -540.0948 aa4 -0.427461 aa5 -0.001537 aa6 -0.000171 aa7 -1108.177 aa8 -0.138803 bb0 3297.057 bb1 0.000758 bb2 -131.7571 bb3 -2.980244 bb4 -0.021163 bb5 435.8382 bb6 419.6691 bb7 0.398822 cc0 -10537.70 cc1 0.002810 cc2 -209.7087 cc3 -0.494821 cc4 765.9082 cc5 0.369004 cc6 0.276578 dd0 -2237.476 dd1 -0.001864 dd2 16.06732 dd3 -208.4581 dd4 -0.000851 dd5 0.000965 dd6 0.744542 ee0 897.3071 ee1 -0.003402 ee2 5.518416 ee3 -33.40311 ee4 -0.004357 ee5 0.000612 ee6 0.011809 ee7 0.955296 ff0 309719.4 ff1 0.129333 ff2 -15.45845 ff3 0.551386 ; RC = a0 + a1RYD + a2RR ; RPPJK = b0 + b1RY + b2RR + b3LRPPJK; RG = c0 + c1RPPJK + c2OILP + c3LRG; RI = d0 + d1L2RR + d2RY + d3KRISIS + d4LRI ; RNX = e0 + e1EXRIHKUSCPI + e2RY + e3OILP + e4LRNX; R = f0 + f1LRMS + f2IHK-LIHK + f3EXPINF + f4KRISIS + f5FER + f6LR; IHK = g0 + g1LRY + g2LIHK ; EXR = h0 + h1UIP + h2LRNX + h3RMS + h4KRISIS + h5LEXR ; EMP = i0 + i1LRW + i2RY + i3LEMP; RY = RC + RI + RG + RNX ; RR = R-DINF; UIP = RR -RFRATE ; UNEMP = LF - EMP; 247 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan LRPPJK = LAGRPPJK; LRG = LAGRG; L2RR=LAG2RR; LRI = LAGRI; LRNX = LAGRNX; LRY = LAGRY; LR = LAGR; LRMS=LAGRMS; LEXR = LAGEXR; LEMP = LAGEMP; LRW = LAGRW; TDFHTI = j0 + j1L2RHEPU + j2RHKHTI + j3RR-L2RR + j4RW + j5RHBBM + j6RHEKR + j7RHEMSW + j8RHEKL + j9PPHTI + j10LAHTI; QKHTI = k0 + k1RHKHTI + k2RR + k3PRODHTI + k4AHTI + k5LQKHTI; DKHTI = l0 + l1RHKHTI + l2RR + l3RW + l4RHEPU-LRHEPU + l5RY-LRY + l6LDKHTI; RHKHTI = m0 + m1RHEPU-LRHEPU + m2RHKHA + m3LQKHTI + m4LRHKHTI; DKHTI = QKHTI; TDFSW = n0 + n1RHEMSW + n2RHBSW + n3L3RR + n4RW + n5LRHKHTI + n6LRHKHA + n7LATSW ; QBSW = o0 + o1LRHBSW + o2RR + o3PRODSW + o4ATSW + o5LQBSW ; DBSW = p0 + p1RHBSW + p2RR + p3RW + p4RHDMSW + p5RY + p6LDBSW; RHBSW = q0 + q1RHEMSW + q2DBSW + q3LRHBSW; QBSW = DBSW; L3RR = LAG3RR; LRHKHTI = LAGRHKHTI; LATSW=LAGATSW; LRHBSW=LAGRHBSW; LQBSW=LAGQBSW; LDBSW = LAGDBSW; TDFKR = r0 + r1RHDKR + r2RR + r3RHKHA + r4RHEMSW + r5RHEKR + r6LATKR ; QKR = s0 + s1RHDKR + s2RR + s3PRODKR + s4ATKR + s5LQKR; DDKR = t0 + t1RHDKR + t2LRR + t3RY-LRY + t4LDDKR; QXKR =u0 + u1LRHEKR + u2L2RHDKR + u3LUSGDP + u4LQXKR; 248 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan RHDKR = v0 + v1RHEKR-LRHEKR + v2QXKR + v3QKR + v4LRHDKR; QKR = DDKR + QXKR; LATKR = LAGATKR; LQKR = LAGQKR; LRR=LAGRR; LDDKR = LAGDDKR; LRHEKR =LAGRHEKR; L2RHDKR = LAG2RHDKR; LUSGDP =LAGUSGDP; LQXKR = LAGQXKR; LRHDKR=LAGRHDKR; TDFPD = w0 + w1RHGKG + w2RHPP + w3RR + w4RHBBM + w5RHKHA + w6RHKHTI + w7POP + w8LATPD; QGKG = x0 + x1RHGKG + x2RR + x3RHBBM + x4PRODPD + x5LQGKG; DGKG = y0 + y1LRHPP + y2RR + y3RHBBM + y4RHDBR + y5RY + y6LDGKG; RHGKG = z0 + z1RHPP-LRHPP + z2QGKG + z3LRHGKG; QGKG = DGKG; TTDF = TDFHTI + TDFSW + TDFKR + TDFPD; TDGHPH = aa0 + aa1RHEKL + aa2RHKHA + aa3RR + aa4L2QILL + aa5LRHEMSW + aa6LRHEKR + aa7KPIHPH + aa8LAHPH; QILL = bb0 + bb1RHKHA + bb2RR + bb3RHBBM + bb4RDR + bb5PRODHA + bb6PKUM + bb7LQILL ; QKBHA = cc0 + cc1LRHKHA + cc2LRR + cc3RPSDH + cc4PRODHA + cc5AHPH + cc6LQKBHA; DKBKG = dd0 + dd1RHKHA + dd2RHKHTI + dd3RR + dd4RW + dd5RY + dd6LDKBKG; DKBKL = ee0 + ee1RHKHA + ee2RHKHTI + ee3 LRR + ee4RW + ee5RHEKL + ee6RY-LRY + ee7LDKBKL; RHKHA = ff0 + ff1RHEKL + ff2QILL+QKBHA + ff3LRHKHA; QKBHA + QILL = DKBKG + DKBKL + QXKB ; L2QILL = LAG2QILL; LRHEMSW = LAGRHEMSW; LAHPH = LAGAHPH; LQILL = LAGQILL; LRHKHA = LAGRHKHA; LQKBHA = LAGQKBHA; 249 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan LDKBKG = LAGDKBKG; LDKBKL = LAGDKBKL; RANGE TAHUN = 1983 TO 2008; SOLVE R RR UIP EXR RPPJK RG RI RNX RC RY IHK EMP UNEMP LRPPJK LRG L2RR LRI LRNX LRY LR LRMS LEXR LEMP LRW TDFHTI QKHTI DKHTI RHKHTI L2RHEPU LAHTI LQKHTI LRHEPU LDKHTI LRHKHTI TDFSW QBSW DBSW RHBSW L3RR LRHKHTI LATSW LRHBSW LQBSW LDBSW TDFKR QKR DDKR QXKR RHDKR LATKR LQKR LRR LDDKR LRHEKR L2RHDKR LUSGDP LQXKR LRHDKR 250 Lampiran 7. Lanjutan TDFPD QGKG DGKG RHGKG LATPD LQGKG LRHPP LDGKG LRHGKG TTDF TDGHPH QILL QKBHA DKBKG DKBKL RHKHA L2QILL LRHEMSW LAHPH LQILL LRHKHA LQKBHA LDKBKG LDKBKL OUTPREDICT ; RUN ; 251 Lampiran 8. Hasil Simulasi Model Ekonomi Deforestasi dan Degradasi Hutan Alam Menggunakan Metode Newton, Prosedur SYSNLIN, Software SAS versi 9.0 1. Penawaran Uang meningkat 23.12 The MODEL Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range TAHUN = 1983 To 2008 Descriptive Statistics Actual Predicted Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev R 26 26 14.1908 11.0892 12.5592 4.5055 RR 26 26 2.9010 5.5753 1.2694 14.0715 UIP 26 26 0.7466 5.1916 ‐0.8849 14.2696 EXR 26 26 6622.7 4944.0 8084.1 5474.9 REXR 26 26 6956.0 7313.7 8178.8 8085.1 RPPJK 26 26 129891 66351.2 133634 73886.8 RG 26 26 98172.8 32781.6 100925 35248.0 RI 26 26 321683 134461 339700 126681 RNX 26 26 33849.9 74842.4 45514.9 58335.3 RC 26 26 742744 301174 742242 284588 RY 26 26 1196450 440139 1228382 462805 IHK 26 26 75.2057 60.2377 75.6801 60.4445 EMP 26 26 82.2600 11.9070 82.7487 12.1169 UNEMP 26 26 5.2146 3.4952 4.7573 3.2913 LRC 26 26 706578 292612 704345 271627 LRPPJK 26 26 120762 62560.2 124250 70446.0 LRI 26 26 303421 123769 323133 122282 LRG 26 26 93787.1 29496.4 96492.2 32483.5 LRNX 26 26 32977.7 75118.0 43148.4 58934.4 LRY 26 26 1136763 419942 1167119 444652 LR 26 26 14.5281 11.0431 12.7825 4.5931 LRMS 26 26 501474 256026 617415 315219 LEXR 26 26 6279.7 5031.9 7635.5 5581.6 LEMP 26 26 80.5389 12.0893 80.9865 12.2906 LRW 26 26 513077 174259 513077 174259 LDINF 26 26 11.1214 13.7754 11.1214 13.7754 LOILP 26 26 76.1820 75.5203 76.1820 75.5203 TDFHTI 26 26 275.0 490.5 291.2 628.4 QKHTI 26 26 4079.5 7167.2 4202.5 7692.3 DKHTI 26 26 4079.5 7167.2 4202.5 7692.3 RHKHTI 26 26 350.8 155.3 346.0 111.9 L2RHEPU 26 26 3928551 1418815 3928551 1418815 LRHEPU 26 26 3926454 1421881 3926454 1421881 L2RR 26 26 3.5692 5.3428 1.5726 14.0841 LAHTI 26 26 2291.7 2617.0 2291.7 2617.0 LQKHTI 26 26 3221.1 6161.2 3347.0 6789.8 LDKHTI 26 26 3221.1 6161.2 3347.0 6789.8 TDFSW 26 26 270.5 256.5 252.6 247.7 QBSW 26 26 28600.5 23830.0 31531.9 25465.4 DBSW 26 26 28600.5 23830.0 31531.9 25465.4 RHBSW 26 26 329.6 85.0738 334.9 67.2981 L3RR 26 26 3.6736 5.2173 1.6446 14.0646 LRHKHTI 26 26 366.7 152.1 361.5 108.9 LRHKHA 26 26 693551 342976 649488 262472 LATSW 26 26 2704.6 2097.1 2704.6 2097.1 L2RHBSW 26 26 311.7 78.0536 321.9 69.4249 LRR 26 26 3.4067 5.3912 1.6611 14.1076 LQBSW 26 26 25689.2 21877.9 28488.2 23716.1 LDBSW 26 26 25689.2 21877.9 28488.2 23716.1 TDFKR 26 26 36.1652 77.6525 52.3754 114.6 QKR 26 26 1602.9 508.6 1656.3 599.7 252 Lampiran 8. Lanjutan DDKR 26 26 161.6 111.4 253.5 163.9 QXKR 26 26 1441.3 422.8 1402.8 474.1 RHDKR 26 26 7255.1 1339.5 6986.7 660.3 LATKR 26 26 3195.1 316.1 3195.1 316.1 LQKR 26 26 1531.7 469.5 1590.0 583.6 LDDKR 26 26 147.3 92.7519 241.6 163.6 LQXKR 26 26 1384.3 404.2 1348.3 457.8 LRHEKR 26 26 11210039 7149536 11210039 7149536 TDFPD 26 26 171.3 370.7 226.9 477.2 QGKG 26 26 47989.9 6226.9 48758.2 6251.2 DGKG 26 26 47989.9 6226.9 48758.2 6251.2 RHGKG 26 26 1343.0 461.6 1327.1 321.6 LATPD 26 26 10558.2 1395.8 10558.2 1395.8 LQGKG 26 26 46962.6 6313.0 47776.2 6552.0 LDGKG 26 26 46962.6 6313.0 47776.2 6552.0 TTDF 26 26 753.0 683.0 823.1 1083.9 TDGHPH 26 26 ‐1018.2 3801.4 77.9329 6453.1 QILL 26 26 10540.1 3904.1 10888.3 3856.2 QKBHA 26 26 15355.6 9316.1 15813.7 8749.2 DKBKG 26 26 9965.3 7292.3 11302.6 4432.7 DKBKL 26 26 15658.7 5149.8 15840.3 3284.9 RHKHA 26 26 715581 340166 678613 272757 L2QILL 26 26 10818.3 3484.2 11174.1 3388.2 LRHEMSW 26 26 3772992 1196814 3772992 1196814 LAHPH 26 26 47879.0 13194.2 47879.0 13194.2 LQILL 26 26 10719.1 3687.4 11103.0 3539.2 LQKBHA 26 26 15692.0 9067.9 16256.7 8294.2 LDKBKG 26 26 10448.9 7092.4 11758.5 4003.2 LDKBKL 26 26 15555.0 5345.2 15564.3 3874.9 2. Pengeluaran Pemerintah meningkat 17.96 The MODEL Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range TAHUN = 1983 To 2008 Descriptive Statistics Actual Predicted Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev R 26 26 14.1908 11.0892 14.4524 4.7405 RR 26 26 2.9010 5.5753 3.1626 13.9737 UIP 26 26 0.7466 5.1916 1.0083 14.2434 EXR 26 26 6622.7 4944.0 6679.8 4793.1 REXR 26 26 6956.0 7313.7 6824.4 6909.9 RPPJK 26 26 129891 66351.2 131612 70987.1 RI 26 26 321683 134461 334290 123748 RNX 26 26 33849.9 74842.4 27938.5 49573.8 RC 26 26 742744 301174 739551 283778 RY 26 26 1196450 440139 1217584 445418 IHK 26 26 75.2057 60.2377 75.5007 60.0984 EMP 26 26 82.2600 11.9070 82.6235 11.8285 UNEMP 26 26 5.2146 3.4952 4.8825 3.5735 LRC 26 26 706578 292612 701808 270744 LRPPJK 26 26 120762 62560.2 122396 67499.1 LRI 26 26 303421 123769 318109 119319 LRG 26 26 93787.1 29496.4 110631 34793.9 LRNX 26 26 32977.7 75118.0 27137.8 49872.4 LRY 26 26 1136763 419942 1157262 427102 LR 26 26 14.5281 11.0431 14.5670 4.7728 LRMS 26 26 501474 256026 501474 256026 LEXR 26 26 6279.7 5031.9 6303.7 4861.1 LEMP 26 26 80.5389 12.0893 80.8858 12.0348 253 Lampiran 8. Lanjutan LRW 26 26 513077 174259 513077 174259 LDINF 26 26 11.1214 13.7754 11.1214 13.7754 LOILP 26 26 76.1820 75.5203 76.1820 75.5203 TDFHTI 26 26 275.0 490.5 290.8 624.6 QKHTI 26 26 4079.5 7167.2 3907.4 7623.5 DKHTI 26 26 4079.5 7167.2 3907.4 7623.5 RHKHTI 26 26 350.8 155.3 345.2 112.4 L2RHEPU 26 26 3928551 1418815 3928551 1418815 LRHEPU 26 26 3926454 1421881 3926454 1421881 L2RR 26 26 3.5692 5.3428 3.2510 13.9440 LAHTI 26 26 2291.7 2617.0 2291.7 2617.0 LQKHTI 26 26 3221.1 6161.2 3069.3 6723.5 LDKHTI 26 26 3221.1 6161.2 3069.3 6723.5 TDFSW 26 26 270.5 256.5 257.2 247.5 QBSW 26 26 28600.5 23830.0 29721.5 24048.5 DBSW 26 26 28600.5 23830.0 29721.5 24048.5 RHBSW 26 26 329.6 85.0738 331.4 64.8871 L3RR 26 26 3.6736 5.2173 3.2277 13.9511 LRHKHTI 26 26 366.7 152.1 360.8 109.4 LRHKHA 26 26 693551 342976 673284 271217 LATSW 26 26 2704.6 2097.1 2704.6 2097.1 L2RHBSW 26 26 311.7 78.0536 319.0 67.0545 LRR 26 26 3.4067 5.3912 3.4456 13.9910 LQBSW 26 26 25689.2 21877.9 26810.6 22270.0 LDBSW 26 26 25689.2 21877.9 26810.6 22270.0 TDFKR 26 26 36.1652 77.6525 34.6236 116.2 QKR 26 26 1602.9 508.6 1595.5 562.4 DDKR 26 26 161.6 111.4 194.7 140.9 QXKR 26 26 1441.3 422.8 1400.8 472.6 RHDKR 26 26 7255.1 1339.5 7123.1 707.8 LATKR 26 26 3195.1 316.1 3195.1 316.1 LQKR 26 26 1531.7 469.5 1533.1 545.1 LDDKR 26 26 147.3 92.7519 186.6 140.1 LQXKR 26 26 1384.3 404.2 1346.5 456.3 LRHEKR 26 26 11210039 7149536 11210039 7149536 TDFPD 26 26 171.3 370.7 147.3 472.0 QGKG 26 26 47989.9 6226.9 48499.4 5942.4 DGKG 26 26 47989.9 6226.9 48499.4 5942.4 RHGKG 26 26 1343.0 461.6 1333.9 314.0 LATPD 26 26 10558.2 1395.8 10558.2 1395.8 LQGKG 26 26 46962.6 6313.0 47537.0 6252.8 LDGKG 26 26 46962.6 6313.0 47537.0 6252.8 TTDF 26 26 753.0 683.0 729.9 1077.2 TDGHPH 26 26 ‐1018.2 3801.4 ‐1055.2 6475.6 QILL 26 26 10540.1 3904.1 10519.3 3860.0 QKBHA 26 26 15355.6 9316.1 15398.3 8782.7 DKBKG 26 26 9965.3 7292.3 9759.7 4960.1 DKBKL 26 26 15658.7 5149.8 14508.3 3002.5 RHKHA 26 26 715581 340166 703860 281028 L2QILL 26 26 10818.3 3484.2 10846.8 3321.3 LRHEMSW 26 26 3772992 1196814 3772992 1196814 LAHPH 26 26 47879.0 13194.2 47879.0 13194.2 LQILL 26 26 10719.1 3687.4 10755.4 3516.0 LQKBHA 26 26 15692.0 9067.9 15865.9 8308.4 LDKBKG 26 26 10448.9 7092.4 10309.4 4533.3 LDKBKL 26 26 15555.0 5345.2 14338.2 3413.8 254 Lampiran 8. Lanjutan 3. Harga Minyak Mentah Dunia meningkat 7.0 The MODEL Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range TAHUN = 1983 To 2008 Descriptive Statistics Actual Predicted Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev R 26 26 14.1908 11.0892 14.0260 4.5902 RR 26 26 2.9010 5.5753 2.7362 13.8879 UIP 26 26 0.7466 5.1916 0.5818 14.1424 EXR 26 26 6622.7 4944.0 6804.5 4768.7 REXR 26 26 6956.0 7313.7 6889.8 6925.6 RPPJK 26 26 129891 66351.2 129018 70586.8 RG 26 26 98172.8 32781.6 99128.1 33027.1 RI 26 26 321683 134461 330989 122377 RNX 26 26 33849.9 74842.4 30529.1 49511.4 RC 26 26 742744 301174 740157 283884 RY 26 26 1196450 440139 1200804 442588 IHK 26 26 75.2057 60.2377 75.2192 60.0763 EMP 26 26 82.2600 11.9070 82.3233 11.7480 UNEMP 26 26 5.2146 3.4952 5.1826 3.6286 LRC 26 26 706578 292612 702366 270831 LRPPJK 26 26 120762 62560.2 120004 67176.8 LRI 26 26 303421 123769 315070 118004 LRG 26 26 93787.1 29496.4 94889.9 30315.7 LRNX 26 26 32977.7 75118.0 29466.0 49887.0 LRY 26 26 1136763 419942 1141792 424691 LR 26 26 14.5281 11.0431 14.1745 4.6323 LRMS 26 26 501474 256026 501474 256026 LEXR 26 26 6279.7 5031.9 6425.1 4844.1 LEMP 26 26 80.5389 12.0893 80.6052 11.9478 LRW 26 26 513077 174259 513077 174259 LDINF 26 26 11.1214 13.7754 11.1214 13.7754 LOILP 26 26 76.1820 75.5203 81.5148 80.8068 TDFHTI 26 26 275.0 490.5 291.3 624.5 QKHTI 26 26 4079.5 7167.2 3972.9 7624.6 DKHTI 26 26 4079.5 7167.2 3972.9 7624.6 RHKHTI 26 26 350.8 155.3 345.4 112.3 L2RHEPU 26 26 3928551 1418815 3928551 1418815 LRHEPU 26 26 3926454 1421881 3926454 1421881 L2RR 26 26 3.5692 5.3428 2.8949 13.8695 LAHTI 26 26 2291.7 2617.0 2291.7 2617.0 LQKHTI 26 26 3221.1 6161.2 3129.8 6718.8 LDKHTI 26 26 3221.1 6161.2 3129.8 6718.8 TDFSW 26 26 270.5 256.5 257.3 247.6 QBSW 26 26 28600.5 23830.0 29151.9 24007.8 DBSW 26 26 28600.5 23830.0 29151.9 24007.8 RHBSW 26 26 329.6 85.0738 330.3 64.9194 L3RR 26 26 3.6736 5.2173 2.8967 13.8689 LRHKHTI 26 26 366.7 152.1 361.0 109.3 LRHKHA 26 26 693551 342976 668237 270522 LATSW 26 26 2704.6 2097.1 2704.6 2097.1 L2RHBSW 26 26 311.7 78.0536 318.0 67.0781 LRR 26 26 3.4067 5.3912 3.0531 13.9068 LQBSW 26 26 25689.2 21877.9 26284.9 22256.9 LDBSW 26 26 25689.2 21877.9 26284.9 22256.9 TDFKR 26 26 36.1652 77.6525 38.6076 115.5 QKR 26 26 1602.9 508.6 1606.6 567.2 DDKR 26 26 161.6 111.4 205.4 139.5 QXKR 26 26 1441.3 422.8 1401.2 472.9 RHDKR 26 26 7255.1 1339.5 7098.4 696.5 255 Lampiran 8. Lanjutan LATKR 26 26 3195.1 316.1 3195.1 316.1 LQKR 26 26 1531.7 469.5 1543.6 550.5 LDDKR 26 26 147.3 92.7519 196.8 138.9 LQXKR 26 26 1384.3 404.2 1346.9 456.6 LRHEKR 26 26 11210039 7149536 11210039 7149536 TDFPD 26 26 171.3 370.7 167.5 465.8 QGKG 26 26 47989.9 6226.9 48295.4 5935.0 DGKG 26 26 47989.9 6226.9 48295.4 5935.0 RHGKG 26 26 1343.0 461.6 1339.3 314.2 LATPD 26 26 10558.2 1395.8 10558.2 1395.8 LQGKG 26 26 46962.6 6313.0 47348.9 6242.5 LDGKG 26 26 46962.6 6313.0 47348.9 6242.5 TTDF 26 26 753.0 683.0 754.6 1075.0 TDGHPH 26 26 ‐1018.2 3801.4 ‐800.2 6445.5 QILL 26 26 10540.1 3904.1 10601.4 3834.4 QKBHA 26 26 15355.6 9316.1 15489.2 8812.7 DKBKG 26 26 9965.3 7292.3 10042.8 4866.7 DKBKL 26 26 15658.7 5149.8 14685.5 3047.9 RHKHA 26 26 715581 340166 698401 280217 L2QILL 26 26 10818.3 3484.2 10915.8 3317.5 LRHEMSW 26 26 3772992 1196814 3772992 1196814 LAHPH 26 26 47879.0 13194.2 47879.0 13194.2 LQILL 26 26 10719.1 3687.4 10830.8 3498.7 LQKBHA 26 26 15692.0 9067.9 15948.4 8350.2 LDKBKG 26 26 10448.9 7092.4 10574.5 4440.8 LDKBKL 26 26 15555.0 5345.2 14505.7 3477.9 4. Lompatan Kenaikan Harga Minyak Mentah Dunia sebesar 200.0 The MODEL Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range TAHUN = 1983 To 2008 Descriptive Statistics Actual Predicted Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev R 26 26 14.1908 11.0892 13.9900 4.6446 RR 26 26 2.9010 5.5753 2.7002 13.7894 UIP 26 26 0.7466 5.1916 0.5458 14.1102 EXR 26 26 6622.7 4944.0 9135.3 4105.3 REXR 26 26 6956.0 7313.7 8234.3 7053.2 RPPJK 26 26 129891 66351.2 128850 73058.1 RG 26 26 98172.8 32781.6 120948 26848.6 RI 26 26 321683 134461 330818 124030 RNX 26 26 33849.9 74842.4 7745.3 76128.6 RC 26 26 742744 301174 740208 283231 RY 26 26 1196450 440139 1199720 458526 IHK 26 26 75.2057 60.2377 75.1962 60.3202 EMP 26 26 82.2600 11.9070 82.2478 12.0566 UNEMP 26 26 5.2146 3.4952 5.2581 3.3129 LRC 26 26 706578 292612 702427 270177 LRPPJK 26 26 120762 62560.2 119808 69685.2 LRI 26 26 303421 123769 314869 119628 LRG 26 26 93787.1 29496.4 116195 25986.0 LRNX 26 26 32977.7 75118.0 7038.9 76118.1 LRY 26 26 1136763 419942 1140530 440734 LR 26 26 14.5281 11.0431 14.1316 4.6885 LRMS 26 26 501474 256026 501474 256026 LEXR 26 26 6279.7 5031.9 8727.9 4391.7 LEMP 26 26 80.5389 12.0893 80.5210 12.2242 LRW 26 26 513077 174259 513077 174259 LDINF 26 26 11.1214 13.7754 11.1214 13.7754 256 Lampiran 8. Lanjutan LOILP 26 26 76.1820 75.5203 228.5 226.6 TDFHTI 26 26 275.0 490.5 290.6 626.0 QKHTI 26 26 4079.5 7167.2 3982.8 7572.8 DKHTI 26 26 4079.5 7167.2 3982.8 7572.8 RHKHTI 26 26 350.8 155.3 345.5 112.4 L2RHEPU 26 26 3928551 1418815 3928551 1418815 LRHEPU 26 26 3926454 1421881 3926454 1421881 L2RR 26 26 3.5692 5.3428 2.8461 13.7705 LAHTI 26 26 2291.7 2617.0 2291.7 2617.0 LQKHTI 26 26 3221.1 6161.2 3141.1 6665.4 LDKHTI 26 26 3221.1 6161.2 3141.1 6665.4 TDFSW 26 26 270.5 256.5 257.1 248.7 QBSW 26 26 28600.5 23830.0 29102.4 24457.8 DBSW 26 26 28600.5 23830.0 29102.4 24457.8 RHBSW 26 26 329.6 85.0738 330.2 66.0651 L3RR 26 26 3.6736 5.2173 2.8414 13.7719 LRHKHTI 26 26 366.7 152.1 361.1 109.4 LRHKHA 26 26 693551 342976 667353 275909 LATSW 26 26 2704.6 2097.1 2704.6 2097.1 L2RHBSW 26 26 311.7 78.0536 317.9 68.1261 LRR 26 26 3.4067 5.3912 3.0102 13.8110 LQBSW 26 26 25689.2 21877.9 26226.9 22714.7 LDBSW 26 26 25689.2 21877.9 26226.9 22714.7 TDFKR 26 26 36.1652 77.6525 38.9584 117.1 QKR 26 26 1602.9 508.6 1612.9 557.3 DDKR 26 26 161.6 111.4 211.4 128.8 QXKR 26 26 1441.3 422.8 1401.5 472.7 RHDKR 26 26 7255.1 1339.5 7084.4 700.3 LATKR 26 26 3195.1 316.1 3195.1 316.1 LQKR 26 26 1531.7 469.5 1550.5 542.2 LDDKR 26 26 147.3 92.7519 203.4 129.1 LQXKR 26 26 1384.3 404.2 1347.2 456.5 LRHEKR 26 26 11210039 7149536 11210039 7149536 TDFPD 26 26 171.3 370.7 169.7 454.6 QGKG 26 26 47989.9 6226.9 48282.0 6163.8 DGKG 26 26 47989.9 6226.9 48282.0 6163.8 RHGKG 26 26 1343.0 461.6 1339.7 320.5 LATPD 26 26 10558.2 1395.8 10558.2 1395.8 LQGKG 26 26 46962.6 6313.0 47333.3 6454.4 LDGKG 26 26 46962.6 6313.0 47333.3 6454.4 TTDF 26 26 753.0 683.0 756.3 1073.4 TDGHPH 26 26 ‐1018.2 3801.4 ‐777.8 6459.0 QILL 26 26 10540.1 3904.1 10609.3 3800.9 QKBHA 26 26 15355.6 9316.1 15498.7 8880.2 DKBKG 26 26 9965.3 7292.3 10106.2 5101.3 DKBKL 26 26 15658.7 5149.8 14923.4 3423.1 RHKHA 26 26 715581 340166 697646 285737 L2QILL 26 26 10818.3 3484.2 10926.3 3270.9 LRHEMSW 26 26 3772992 1196814 3772992 1196814 LAHPH 26 26 47879.0 13194.2 47879.0 13194.2 LQILL 26 26 10719.1 3687.4 10840.0 3458.2 LQKBHA 26 26 15692.0 9067.9 15959.0 8418.7 LDKBKG 26 26 10448.9 7092.4 10647.1 4666.9 LDKBKL 26 26 15555.0 5345.2 14747.8 3816.6 257 Lampiran 8. Lanjutan 5. Suku Bunga Rujukan Amerika Serikat Meningkat 1 The MODEL Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range TAHUN = 1983 To 2008 Descriptive Statistics Actual Predicted Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev R 26 26 14.1908 11.0892 14.0299 4.5902 RR 26 26 2.9010 5.5753 2.7400 13.8920 UIP 26 26 0.7466 5.1916 0.5641 14.1484 EXR 26 26 6622.7 4944.0 6730.6 4794.4 REXR 26 26 6956.0 7313.7 6847.1 6922.4 RPPJK 26 26 129891 66351.2 129038 70501.5 RG 26 26 98172.8 32781.6 98345.0 33363.6 RI 26 26 321683 134461 331013 122319 RNX 26 26 33849.9 74842.4 31426.3 48853.4 RC 26 26 742744 301174 740152 283907 RY 26 26 1196450 440139 1200936 442039 IHK 26 26 75.2057 60.2377 75.2217 60.0678 EMP 26 26 82.2600 11.9070 82.3279 11.7377 UNEMP 26 26 5.2146 3.4952 5.1780 3.6392 LRC 26 26 706578 292612 702360 270854 LRPPJK 26 26 120762 62560.2 120025 67091.9 LRI 26 26 303421 123769 315095 117949 LRG 26 26 93787.1 29496.4 94125.3 30617.9 LRNX 26 26 32977.7 75118.0 30349.3 49255.0 LRY 26 26 1136763 419942 1141930 424150 LR 26 26 14.5281 11.0431 14.1785 4.6323 LRMS 26 26 501474 256026 501474 256026 LEXR 26 26 6279.7 5031.9 6352.2 4864.4 LEMP 26 26 80.5389 12.0893 80.6099 11.9388 LRW 26 26 513077 174259 513077 174259 LDINF 26 26 11.1214 13.7754 11.1214 13.7754 LOILP 26 26 76.1820 75.5203 76.1820 75.5203 TDFHTI 26 26 275.0 490.5 291.3 624.5 QKHTI 26 26 4079.5 7167.2 3972.1 7626.4 DKHTI 26 26 4079.5 7167.2 3972.1 7626.4 RHKHTI 26 26 350.8 155.3 345.4 112.3 L2RHEPU 26 26 3928551 1418815 3928551 1418815 LRHEPU 26 26 3926454 1421881 3926454 1421881 L2RR 26 26 3.5692 5.3428 2.8990 13.8735 LAHTI 26 26 2291.7 2617.0 2291.7 2617.0 LQKHTI 26 26 3221.1 6161.2 3129.0 6720.7 LDKHTI 26 26 3221.1 6161.2 3129.0 6720.7 TDFSW 26 26 270.5 256.5 257.3 247.5 QBSW 26 26 28600.5 23830.0 29157.0 23992.3 DBSW 26 26 28600.5 23830.0 29157.0 23992.3 RHBSW 26 26 329.6 85.0738 330.3 64.8795 L3RR 26 26 3.6736 5.2173 2.9011 13.8729 LRHKHTI 26 26 366.7 152.1 361.0 109.3 LRHKHA 26 26 693551 342976 668305 270343 LATSW 26 26 2704.6 2097.1 2704.6 2097.1 L2RHBSW 26 26 311.7 78.0536 318.0 67.0426 LRR 26 26 3.4067 5.3912 3.0571 13.9107 LQBSW 26 26 25689.2 21877.9 26290.2 22241.4 LDBSW 26 26 25689.2 21877.9 26290.2 22241.4 TDFKR 26 26 36.1652 77.6525 38.5709 115.5 QKR 26 26 1602.9 508.6 1606.3 567.5 DDKR 26 26 161.6 111.4 205.1 139.9 QXKR 26 26 1441.3 422.8 1401.2 472.9 258 Lampiran 8. Lanjutan RHDKR 26 26 7255.1 1339.5 7099.0 696.5 LATKR 26 26 3195.1 316.1 3195.1 316.1 LQKR 26 26 1531.7 469.5 1543.3 550.7 LDDKR 26 26 147.3 92.7519 196.5 139.3 LQXKR 26 26 1384.3 404.2 1346.8 456.6 LRHEKR 26 26 11210039 7149536 11210039 7149536 TDFPD 26 26 171.3 370.7 167.3 466.3 QGKG 26 26 47989.9 6226.9 48297.0 5927.1 DGKG 26 26 47989.9 6226.9 48297.0 5927.1 RHGKG 26 26 1343.0 461.6 1339.3 314.0 LATPD 26 26 10558.2 1395.8 10558.2 1395.8 LQGKG 26 26 46962.6 6313.0 47350.6 6235.3 LDGKG 26 26 46962.6 6313.0 47350.6 6235.3 TTDF 26 26 753.0 683.0 754.4 1075.1 TDGHPH 26 26 ‐1018.2 3801.4 ‐802.5 6445.6 QILL 26 26 10540.1 3904.1 10600.7 3835.5 QKBHA 26 26 15355.6 9316.1 15488.3 8810.4 DKBKG 26 26 9965.3 7292.3 10038.7 4859.2 DKBKL 26 26 15658.7 5149.8 14675.9 3034.8 RHKHA 26 26 715581 340166 698465 280030 L2QILL 26 26 10818.3 3484.2 10914.9 3319.1 LRHEMSW 26 26 3772992 1196814 3772992 1196814 LAHPH 26 26 47879.0 13194.2 47879.0 13194.2 LQILL 26 26 10719.1 3687.4 10830.0 3500.1 LQKBHA 26 26 15692.0 9067.9 15947.4 8347.9 LDKBKG 26 26 10448.9 7092.4 10570.1 4433.7 LDKBKL 26 26 15555.0 5345.2 14496.1 3465.9 6. Kenaikan Suku Bunga Rujukan Amerika Serikat Rataan per tahun sebesar 5.0 The MODEL Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range TAHUN = 1983 To 2008 Descriptive Statistics Actual Predicted Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev R 26 26 14.1908 11.0892 14.0402 4.5887 RR 26 26 2.9010 5.5753 2.7504 13.8911 UIP 26 26 0.7466 5.1916 0.4883 14.1647 EXR 26 26 6622.7 4944.0 6772.5 4783.8 RPPJK 26 26 129891 66351.2 129097 70502.6 RG 26 26 98172.8 32781.6 98378.6 33363.0 RI 26 26 321683 134461 331085 122301 RNX 26 26 33849.9 74842.4 31713.8 48949.3 RC 26 26 742744 301174 740137 283904 RY 26 26 1196450 440139 1201314 442045 IHK 26 26 75.2057 60.2377 75.2285 60.0686 EMP 26 26 82.2600 11.9070 82.3353 11.7410 UNEMP 26 26 5.2146 3.4952 5.1706 3.6359 LRC 26 26 706578 292612 702346 270851 LRPPJK 26 26 120762 62560.2 120083 67099.4 LRI 26 26 303421 123769 315165 117939 LRG 26 26 93787.1 29496.4 94158.3 30620.4 LRNX 26 26 32977.7 75118.0 30633.1 49357.0 LRY 26 26 1136763 419942 1142303 424200 LR 26 26 14.5281 11.0431 14.1885 4.6305 LRMS 26 26 501474 256026 501474 256026 LEXR 26 26 6279.7 5031.9 6393.9 4857.2 LEMP 26 26 80.5389 12.0893 80.6171 11.9426 LRW 26 26 513077 174259 513077 174259 259 Lampiran 8. Lanjutan LDINF 26 26 11.1214 13.7754 11.1214 13.7754 LOILP 26 26 76.1820 75.5203 76.1820 75.5203 TDFHTI 26 26 275.0 490.5 291.4 624.5 QKHTI 26 26 4079.5 7167.2 3970.4 7626.1 DKHTI 26 26 4079.5 7167.2 3970.4 7626.1 RHKHTI 26 26 350.8 155.3 345.4 112.3 L2RHEPU 26 26 3928551 1418815 3928551 1418815 LRHEPU 26 26 3926454 1421881 3926454 1421881 L2RR 26 26 3.5692 5.3428 2.9088 13.8725 LAHTI 26 26 2291.7 2617.0 2291.7 2617.0 LQKHTI 26 26 3221.1 6161.2 3127.4 6720.3 LDKHTI 26 26 3221.1 6161.2 3127.4 6720.3 TDFSW 26 26 270.5 256.5 257.3 247.5 QBSW 26 26 28600.5 23830.0 29170.5 23993.4 DBSW 26 26 28600.5 23830.0 29170.5 23993.4 RHBSW 26 26 329.6 85.0738 330.4 64.8837 L3RR 26 26 3.6736 5.2173 2.9108 13.8719 LRHKHTI 26 26 366.7 152.1 361.0 109.3 LRHKHA 26 26 693551 342976 668447 270391 LATSW 26 26 2704.6 2097.1 2704.6 2097.1 L2RHBSW 26 26 311.7 78.0536 318.1 67.0500 LRR 26 26 3.4067 5.3912 3.0671 13.9096 LQBSW 26 26 25689.2 21877.9 26303.4 22243.7 LDBSW 26 26 25689.2 21877.9 26303.4 22243.7 TDFKR 26 26 36.1652 77.6525 38.4730 115.5 QKR 26 26 1602.9 508.6 1606.0 567.2 DDKR 26 26 161.6 111.4 204.8 139.7 QXKR 26 26 1441.3 422.8 1401.2 472.9 RHDKR 26 26 7255.1 1339.5 7099.7 696.9 LATKR 26 26 3195.1 316.1 3195.1 316.1 LQKR 26 26 1531.7 469.5 1543.0 550.5 LDDKR 26 26 147.3 92.7519 196.2 139.1 LQXKR 26 26 1384.3 404.2 1346.8 456.6 LRHEKR 26 26 11210039 7149536 11210039 7149536 TDFPD 26 26 171.3 370.7 166.8 466.1 QGKG 26 26 47989.9 6226.9 48301.6 5927.7 DGKG 26 26 47989.9 6226.9 48301.6 5927.7 RHGKG 26 26 1343.0 461.6 1339.1 314.0 LATPD 26 26 10558.2 1395.8 10558.2 1395.8 LQGKG 26 26 46962.6 6313.0 47355.1 6236.5 LDGKG 26 26 46962.6 6313.0 47355.1 6236.5 TTDF 26 26 753.0 683.0 753.8 1075.1 TDGHPH 26 26 ‐1018.2 3801.4 ‐808.7 6445.5 QILL 26 26 10540.1 3904.1 10598.6 3834.7 QKBHA 26 26 15355.6 9316.1 15486.0 8810.8 DKBKG 26 26 9965.3 7292.3 10031.3 4861.4 DKBKL 26 26 15658.7 5149.8 14671.6 3034.7 RHKHA 26 26 715581 340166 698611 280067 L2QILL 26 26 10818.3 3484.2 10913.0 3318.2 LRHEMSW 26 26 3772992 1196814 3772992 1196814 LAHPH 26 26 47879.0 13194.2 47879.0 13194.2 LQILL 26 26 10719.1 3687.4 10828.0 3499.3 LQKBHA 26 26 15692.0 9067.9 15945.1 8348.4 LDKBKG 26 26 10448.9 7092.4 10563.0 4436.2 LDKBKL 26 26 15555.0 5345.2 14492.4 3464.7 261 Lampiran 9. Notasi Peubah yang Digunakan untuk Pengolahan Data No Spesifikasi Model Pengolahan Data Keterangan 1. r t R Suku Bunga 2. R t RR Suku Bunga Riil 3. UIP t UIP Paritas Suku Bunga 4. e t EXR Nilai Tukar RpUSD 5. T t RPPJK Penerimaan Pajak Rp miliar 6. G t RG Pengeluaran Pemerintah Rp miliar 7. I t RI Investasi Rp miliar 8. NX t RNX Ekspor Bersih Rp miliar 9. C t RC Konsumsi Rp miliar 10. Y t RY Produk Domestik Bruto PDB Rp miliar 11. IHK t IHK Indeks Harga Konsumen Tahun 2000=100 12. LD t EMP Permintaan Tenaga Kerja juta orang 13. UL t UNEMP Jumlah Pengangguran juta orang 14. W t RW Upah Tenaga Kerja Rpbulan 15. NX t RNX Nilai Ekspor Rp miliar 17. MS t RMS Penawaran Uang Rp miliar 18. oil P t OILP Harga Minyak Mentah Dunia USDbarel 19. π t DINF Inflasi Dalam Negeri 20. DEFL DFLA GDP Deflator Tahun 2000=100 21. π E t EXPINF Ekspektasi Inflasi 22. R us RFRATE Suku Bunga Riil Amerika Serikat 23. r us FEDRATE Suku Bunga Nominal Amerika Serikat 24. π us USINF Inflasi Amerika Seikat 25. US CPI USCPI IHK Amerika Serikat tahun 2000=100 26. US GDP USGDP PDB Amerika Serikat USD miliar 27. LS t LF Penawaran Tenaga Kerja juta orang 28. DF HTI t TDFHTI Deforestasi untuk Areal HTI ribu ha 29. A HTI t AHTI Luas Areal HTI ribu ha 30. q HTI t PRODHTI Produktivitas HTI m3ha 31. S KHTI t QKHTI Penawaran Kayu HTI ribu m3 32. D KHTI t DKHTI Permintaan Kayu HTI ribu m3 33. P P KHTI t RHKHTI Harga Kayu HTI Rpm3 34. P P XPULP t RHEPU Harga Ekspor Pulp Rpton 35. P P BBM t RHBBM Harga BBM Rpliter 36. DF SW t TDFSW Deforestasi untuk Areal Sawit ribu ha 37. A TSW t ATSW Luas Areal Tanaman Sawit ribu ha 38. q SW t PRODSW Produktivitas Tanaman Sawit tonha 39. S BSW t QBSW Penawaran Buah Sawit ribu ron 40. D BSW t DBSW Permintaan Buah Sawit ribu ton 41. P P BSW t RHBSW Harga Buah Sawit Rpkg 42. P P DMSW t RHDMSW Harga Minyak Sawit Dalam Negeri Rpton 43. P P XMSW t RHEMSW Harga Ekspor Minyak Sawit Rpton 44. DF KR t TDFKR Deforestasi untuk Areal Karet ribu ha 45. A TKR t ATKR Luas Areal Tanaman Karet ribu ha 46. q KR t PRODKR Produktivitas Tanaman Karet tonha 262 Lampiran 9. Lanjutan No Spesifikasi Model Pengolahan Data Keterangan 47. D DKR t DDKR Permintaan Karet Dalam Negeri ribu ton 48. S XKR t QXKR Penawaran Ekspor Karet ribu ton 49. P P DKR t RHDKR Harga Karet Dalam Negeri Rpkg 50. P P XKR t RHEKR Harga Ekspor Karet Rpton 51. DF PD t TDFPD Deforestasi untuk Areal Padi ribu ha 52. A TPD t ATPD Luas Areal Tanaman Padi ribu ha 53. q PD t PRODPD Produktivitas Tanaman Padi tonha 54. S GKG t QGKG Penawaran Gabah Kering Giling ribu ton 56. D GKG t DGKG Permintaan Gabah Kering Giling ribu ton 57. P P GKG t RHGKG Harga Gabah Kering Giling Rpkg 58. P P HPP t RHHPP Harga Pembelian Pemerintah Rpkg 59. P P DBR t RHDBR Harga Beras Dalam Negeri Rpkg 60 DG HPH t DGHPH Degradasi Hutan Areal HPH ribu ha 61. A HPH t AHPH Luas Areal HPH ribu ha 62 q HA t PRODHA Produktivitas Hutan Alam m3hath 63. S KILL t QILL Penawaran Kayu Ilegal ribu m3 64. S KHA t QKBHA Penawaran Kayu Hutan Alam ribu m3 65. D KHAKG t DKBKG Permintaan Kayu Hutan Alam oleh Industri Kayu Gergajian ribu m3 66. D KHAKL t DKBKL Permintaan Kayu Hutan Alam oleh Industri Kayu Lapis ribu m3 67. P P KHA t RHKHA Harga Kayu Hutan Alam Rpm3 69. P P XKL t RHEKL Harga Ekspor Kayu Lapis Rpm3 70. DR t RDR Dana Reboisasi Rpm3 71. PSDH t RPSDH Provisi Sumberdaya Hutan Rpm3 ABSTRACT SATRIA ASTANA. Macroeconomic Policy and External Factors Impact on Natural Forest Degradation and Deforestation. BONAR M. SINAGA, as Chairman, SUDARSONO SOEDOMO and BINTANG C. H. SIMANGUNSONG as Members of the Advisory Committee. Through the framework of REDD Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in 2009 Indonesia declared a target of reducing CO 2 emission by 26 until 2020, and assigned scores for forestry subsector to contribute 14 lower emission. In forestry subsector, reducing CO 2 emission can be conducted by maintaining and conserving the remaining natural forest area andor increasing the existing plantation forest area through reforestating the degraded forest areas. The natural forest maintenance and conservation policy will reduce the areal expansion, including of agricultural sectors such as for food and estate crops and forestry as well and hence their economic contribution to economic growth. Macroeconomic policy and external factor affect natural forest degradation and deforestation. The objectives of this research are: 1 to construct and estimate the econometric model of macroeconomic policy and external factor impact on natural forest degradation and deforestation, and 2 to evaluate the natural forest degradation and deforestation impact of the macroeconomic policy and external factor. The model is estimated using 2SLS method and tested using relevant statistical tests. The estimated parameters have signs as theoretically predicted, and the evaluation of the macroeconomic policy and external factor impact reflect that maintaining and conserving the remaining natural forest is ineffective if a new permit of its utilization is recognized. In order to reduce the deforestation of natural forest, it is necessarily to set up policy permitting areal expansion only within degraded natural forest areas selectively and facilitating interest rate subsidy as a part of incentive-disincentive system in controlling deforestation and forest degradation. Keywords: Econometric Model. Macroeconomic Policy, External Factor, Natural Forest, Degradation, Deforestation. RINGKASAN SATRIA ASTANA. Dampak Kebijakan Makroekonomi dan Faktor Eksternal terhadap Deforestasi dan Degradasi Hutan Alam. BONAR M. SINAGA sebagai Ketua, SUDARSONO SOEDOMO dan BINTANG C. H. SIMANGUNSONG sebagai anggota Komisi Pembimbing. Perubahan iklim global merupakan isu dunia yang kini menjadi perhatian banyak kalangan baik di dalam negeri maupun di dunia internasional. Selaras dengan isu tersebut, perhatian masyarakat internasional terhadap perkembangan masalah deforestasi dan degradasi hutan semakin menguat. Perhatian masyarakat internasional terlihat dari berkembangnya forum-forum internasional dengan beragam kebijakan dan program yang pada intinya bertujuan untuk mencegah, mengurangi dan memperbaiki kerusakan hutan dan lingkungan sebagai upaya mengurangi, memperlambat dan bahkan menstabilkan laju perubahan iklim global pada threshold yang aman bagi umat manusia sedunia. Kenyataan menunjukkan bahwa perekonomian dunia sedang berubah yakni melangkah menghadapi setidaknya tiga fenomena perubahan. Pertama adalah fenomena perubahan yang ditandai oleh semakin terintegrasinya pasar modal dan keuangan serta perdagangan secara global. Kedua adalah fenomena perubahan yang ditandai oleh lompatan kenaikan harga minyak mentah dunia MMD. Ketiga adalah isu perubahan iklim global. Tiga fenomena perubahan tersebut berinteraksi menentukan besaran harga dan output perekonomian. Konsekuensinya, masing-masing negara harus melaksanakan langkah-langkah penyesuaian adjustment pada seluruh lini sektor ekonomi. Dengan kata lain, perekonomian dunia sedang mengalami proses-proses penyesuaian bukan saja berkaitan dengan pasar dunia yang semakin terintegrasi dan lompatan kenaikan harga MMD namun juga berkaitan dengan isu perubahan iklim. Bagaimana dampak perubahan yang terjadi terhadap masa depan perekonomian belum banyak dipahami. Hal ini menyarankan pentingnya mempelajari bukan hanya pengaruh kebijakan makroekonomi dan faktor eksternal seperti suku bunga, nilai tukar, kebijakan tarif dan non-tarif, serta harga MMD terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, namun penting juga mempelajari dampak pertumbuhan ekonomi terhadap perubahan iklim, termasuk deforestasi dan degradasi hutan. Melalui kerangka REDD Reducing Emission from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries, Indonesia tahun 2009 mendeklarasikan target pengurangan sebesar 26 hingga tahun 2020, dan menetapkan subsekor kehutanan berkontribusi menurunkan emisi 14. Di subsektor kehutanan, pengurangan emisi CO 2 dapat diwujudkan dengan mempertahankan dan mengkonservasi hutan alam yang tersisa danatau meningkatkan hutan tanaman yang ada dengan mereboisasi kawasan hutan yang terdegradasi. Target pengurangan CO 2 dengan mempertahankan dan mengkonservasi hutan alam akan mengurangi ekspansi areal, termasuk ekspansi areal pertanian seperti untuk pangan, perkebunan dan juga kehutanan, dan karenanya juga akan mengurangi kontribusinya terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. perekonomian belum banyak dipahami. Hal ini menyarankan pentingnya memahami bukan hanya pengaruh kebijakan makroekonomi dan perubahan faktor eksternal seperti suku bunga, nilai tukar, kebijakan tarif dan non-tarif, serta harga MMD terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, namun penting juga memahami dampak pertumbuhan ekonomi terhadap perubahan iklim, termasuk deforestasi dan degradasi hutan. Melalui kerangka REDD Indonesia tahun 2009 mendeklarasikan target pengurangan sebesar 26 hingga tahun 2020, dan menetapkan subsekor kehutanan berkontribusi menurunkan emisi 14. Di subsektor kehutanan, pengurangan emisi CO 2 dapat diwujudkan dengan mempertahankan dan mengkonservasi hutan alam yang tersisa danatau meningkatkan hutan tanaman yang ada dengan mereboisasi kawasan hutan yang terdegradasi. Target pengurangan CO 2 dengan mempertahankan dan mengkonservasi hutan alam akan mengurangi ekspansi areal, termasuk ekspansi areal pertanian seperti untuk pangan, perkebunan dan juga kehutanan, dan karenanya juga akan mengurangi kontribusinya terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Ekspansi areal atau deforestasi dan degradasi hutan alam tidak terlepas dari pengaruh kebijakan makroekonomi dan faktor eksternal. Berkaitan dengan faktor eksternal hutan, terdapat pandangan yang menyatakan bahwa hipotesis kunci penelitian pengaruh eksternal hutan tropis adalah bahwa apa yang terjadi pada hutan lebih disebabkan oleh kejadian di luar hutan dibanding di dalam hutan sendiri. Dengan kata lain, dampak sektor lain sering lebih penting dibanding misalnya dampak undang-undang bidang kehutanan, proyek penanaman pohon secara partisipatif atau program pendidikan lingkungan. Berbeda dengan pandangan tersebut, penelitian ini lebih mendasarkan pada pertanyaan: bagaimana memodelkan mekanisme transmisi pengaruh eksternal hutan dan menganalisis secara simultan dampak deforestasi dan degradasi hutan yang ditimbulkan? Untuk menghindari kompleksitas permasalahan, pengaruh eksternal hutan dalam penelitian ini dibatasi terdiri dari: 1 kebijakan makroekonomi, dan 2 faktor eksternal. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk: 1 mengkonstruksi dan menduga model ekonometrika dampak kebijakan makroekonomi dan faktor eksternal terhadap deforestasi dan degradasi hutan alam, dan 2 mengevaluasi dampak deforestasi dan degradasi hutan alam kebijakan makroekonomi dan faktor eksternal. Model diduga menggunakan metode 2SLS dan diuji menggunakan uji statistik yang relevan. Parameter dugaan yang diperoleh memiliki tanda sesuai dengan yang diprediksi teori, dan hasil evaluasi kebijakan dan faktor eksternal mengindikasikan mempertahankan dan mengkonservasi hutan alam yang tersisa tidak efektif jika izin baru pemanfaatannya diperbolehkan. Kata kunci: Model Ekonometrika, Kebijakan Makroekonomi, Faktor Eksternal, Hutan Alam, Deforestasi, Degradasi. vi

I. PENDAHULUAN

1.1. Latar Belakang

Perubahan iklim global merupakan isu dunia yang kini menjadi perhatian banyak kalangan baik di dalam negeri maupun di dunia internasional. Selaras dengan isu tersebut, perhatian masyarakat internasional terhadap perkembangan masalah deforestasi dan degradasi hutan semakin menguat. Perhatian masyarakat internasional terlihat dari berkembangnya forum-forum internasional dengan beragam kebijakan dan program yang pada intinya bertujuan untuk mencegah, mengurangi dan memperbaiki kerusakan hutan dan lingkungan sebagai upaya mengurangi, memperlambat dan bahkan menstabilkan laju perubahan iklim global pada threshold yang aman bagi umat manusia sedunia. Menghindari deforestasi dan degradasi hutan merupakan salah satu bagian untuk mengurangi emisi CO 2 . Hal ini karena hutan memiliki pengaruh penting pada iklim Contreras-Hermosilla et al, 2007. Berkurangnya tutupan hutan secara langsung mempengaruhi tingkat CO 2 carbon dioxide di atmosfir, yang diatur melalui penyerapan alamiah tanaman dan pepohonan. Jika jumlah tanaman dan pepohonan yang hidup berkurang akibat deforestasi, maka jumlah CO 2 yang diserap akan berkurang Ross, 1998 dalam Alimov, 2002. Berdasarkan Forest Resources Assessment, Food and Agriculture Organisation 2005, total luas hutan dunia pada tahun 2005 ditaksir berada di bawah 4 miliar hektar atau 30 dari total luas lahan dunia atau 0.6 ha hutan per kapita. Deforestasi, terutama akibat konversi hutan untuk lahan pertanian berlanjut dengan laju yang sangat tinggi sebesar 13 juta ha per tahun. Pada waktu yang bersamaan, penanaman hutan, restorasi lanskap landscape restoration dan ekspansi alamiah hutan secara signifikan menurunkan kehilangan hutan bersih net 2 loss of forest area. Kehilangan hutan global pada periode 2000-2005 ditaksir sebesar 7.3 juta ha per tahun, menurun dari 8.9 juta ha per tahun pada periode 1990- 2000. Amerika Selatan menderita kehilangan hutan terbesar, yang pada periode tahun 2000-2005 sekitar 4.3 juta ha per tahun, diikuti oleh Afrika, yang kehilangan sebesar 4.0 ha per tahun. Negara-negara Amerika Utara, Amerika Tengah dan Oceania masing-masing kehilangan hutan sekitar 350 000 ha per tahun, sementara Asia, yang kehilangan hutan sebesar 800 000 ha per ha tahun 1990an, dilaporkan mengalami penambahan hutan sebanyak 1 juta ha per tahun pada periode 2000 – 2005, terutama akibat aforestasi skala besar di Cina. Luas hutan di Eropa terus meningkat meskipun pada tingkat yang lebih rendah dibanding tahun 1990an. Indonesia berada pada urutan ketiga setelah Brasilia dan Zaire dalam kekayaan hutan tropis, yakni memiliki 10 dari hutan tropis yang tersisa di dunia Sunderlin dan Resosudarmo, 1997. Berdasarkan hasil penafsiran citra landsat liputan 20052006 menunjukkan bahwa luas lahan berhutan di Indonesia adalah 98.5 juta ha atau 52.4 , dan luas lahan tidak berhutan adalah 85.8 juta ha atau 45.7; tidak tersedia data karena tertutup awan adalah 3.6 juta ha 1.9. Dari total luas lahan berhutan tersebut, luas lahan berhutan yang terbesar berada di Papua seluas 33.2 juta ha, kemudian disusul di Kalimantan 30.4 juta ha, dan Sumatra 15.8 juta ha. Sedangkan luas lahan berhutan terkecil berada di Bali-Nusa seluas 2.5 juta ha, kemudian disusul di Jawa 3.1 juta ha, Maluku 4.7 juta ha, dan Sulawesi 8.7 juta ha Tabel 1. Dari hasil perhitungan berdasarkan hasil penafsiran citra landsat diketahui bahwa laju deforestasi pada periode 1990 – 1996 mencapai 1.9 juta ha namun kemudian meningkat tajam menjadi 3.5 juta ha pada periode 1996 – 2000. Pada 3 periode 2000 – 2003 laju deforestasi menurun tajam menjadi 1.1 juta ha namun kemudian meningkat kembali menjadi 1.2 juta ha pada periode 2003 – 2006 Pusat Inventarisasi dan Perpetaan Kehutanan, 2008. Perhitungan laju deforestasi periode 2006 - 2009 sedang dalam penyelesaian namun diperkirakan tidak banyak berubah jika tidak terdapat perubahan signifikan dalam kebijakan pemanfaatan sumberdaya hutan. Panayotou 1993 menyatakan permasalahannya adalah pembuat kebijakan biasanya mempertimbangkan manfaat jangka pendek short- term benefits dari konversi hutan dan bukan biaya jangka panjang long-term costs. Permasalahan yang diidentidikasi dan diatasi hanya merupakan symptoms masalah bukan akar masalah underlying causes dan pengabaian biaya dan manfaat jangka panjang mencegah upaya perumusan kebijakan yang efektif. Tabel 1. Luas Lahan Berhutan dalam Kawasan Hutan dan Areal Penggunaan Lain di Indonesia, 2006 Luas Lahan Berhutan No. PulauKepulauan Kawasan Hutan Areal Penggunaan Lain Total juta ha juta ha juta ha 1. Sumatra 14.3 1.5 15.8 16.1 2. Jawa 2.2 1.0 3.2 3.2 3. Kalimantan 27.4 3.1 30.5 30.9 4. Sulawesi 7.8 1.0 8.7 8.8 5. Bali-Nusa 1.4 1.0 2.5 2.5 6. Maluku 4.5 0.2 4.7 4.8 7. Papua 32.6 0.6 33.2 33.7 Total 90.2 8.4 98.6 100.0 Sumber: Pusat Inventarisasi dan Perpetaan Kehutanan, 2008 Dampak deforestasi dan degradasi hutan terhadap perubahan iklim global merupakan eksternalitas lintas batas transboundary externality. Perbedaan utama antara eksternalitas domestik dan lintas batas adalah eksternalitas domestik dapat diinternalkan oleh pemerintah yang bersangkutan, karena bukan merupakan kasus rembesan global Hanley et al, 1997 dalam Alimov, 2002. Sedangkan eksternalitas 4 lintas batas, sebaliknya, pemerintah dari negara pencemar tidak memiliki insentif untuk menanggung seluruh biaya pengurangan pencemaran, karena hanya menikmati sebagian dari manfaat global yang dihasilkan. Jika dilakukan, maka negara-negara lain akan menjadi free-rider, menikmati manfaat pengurangan pencemaran oleh pencemar tanpa kontribusi menurunkan. Solusi yang didasarkan pada prinsip membayar polluter pays principle tidak dapat diterapkan tanpa kekuasaan supranasional Alimov, 2002. Implikasinya, masalah deforestasi dan degradasi hutan harus diatasi melalui komunitas internasional. Sebagai upaya komunitas internasional, Konferensi Tingkat Tinggi KTT Bumi Perserikatan Bangsa-Bangsa PBB diselenggarakan pada tahun 1992 di Rio de Janeiro, Brasil. Konferensi ini berhasil mengidentifikasi deforestation, desertification, ozone depletion, atmospheric CO2 emissions dan biodiversity sebagai isu lingkungan global serta menghasilkan kerangka kelembagaan UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Pada 1995, konferensi UNFCCC ke 3 diselenggarakan di Kyoto, Jepang. Terkait dengan isu atmospheric CO2 emissions, dalam konferensi ini COP Convention on Parties negara-negara maju annex 1 menghasilkan Kyoto Protocol antara lain menetapkan target pengurangan emisi karbon bagi negara-negara maju melalui CDM Clean Development Mechanism. Pada tahun 2007, konferensi UNFCCCC ke 13 diselenggarakan di Bali, Indonesia. Terkait dengan isu deforestation dan desertification, dalam konferensi ini COP negara-negara berkembang non-annex 1 mengusulkan REDD Reducing Emission from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries. Pada tahun 2009, konferensi ke 15 diselenggarakan di Kopenhagen Denmark. Dalam konferensi ini, Indonesia melalui kerangka REDD mendeklarasikan target 5 pengurangan emisi CO 2 sebesar 26 hingga tahun 2020, dan menetapkan subsekor kehutanan berkontribusi menurunkan emisi sebesar 14. Upaya mewujudkan target tersebut akan berdampak terhadap peningkatan kinerja perekonomian, khususnya produksi tanaman pangan, perkebunan, kehutanan dan pertambangan. Kenyataan menunjukkan peningkatan produksi tanaman pangan, perkebunan dan kehutanan pada umumnya masih bergantung pada perluasan areal dibanding peningkatan produktivitas lahan per ha. Khususnya tanaman pangan padi, hasil penelitian menunjukkan selama 20 tahun terakhir produktivitasnya hampir tidak mengalami peningkatan sehingga menjustifikasi bahwa kenaikan produksi padi disebabkan oleh penambahan areal Jayawinata, 2005. Sedangkan areal pertambangan yang potensial umumnya berada dalam kawasan hutan primer, bahkan merupakan kawasan hutan yang dilindungi.

1.2. Perumusan Masalah

Kenyataan menunjukkan bahwa perekonomian dunia sedang berubah yakni melangkah menghadapi setidaknya tiga fenomena perubahan. Pertama adalah fenomena perubahan yang ditandai oleh semakin terintegrasinya pasar modal dan keuangan serta perdagangan global. Perubahan kondisi moneter internasional international monetary changes ditransmisikan ke dalam perekonomian suatu negara melalui sistem finansial dan perdagangan internasional. Dalam kasus yang ekstrim, hubungan ketergantungan tersebut ditunjukkan oleh adanya krisis di suatu negara merembet ke negara lain. Krisis European Exchange Rate Mechanism ERM tahun 1992-1993, yang dipicu oleh penarikan mata uang Inggris Poundsterling dan Italia Lira dari sistem mata uang Euro, diikuti oleh krisis mata uang dan perbankan di Swedia, Norwegia dan Finlandia Sugema, 2000. 6 Krisis hutang menjadi krisis mata uang dan kemudian menjadi krisis perbankan di Meksiko merembat ke Argentina dan Brasilia. Krisis mata uang Thailand, Baht, merambat menjadi krisis mata uang Rupiah Indonesia, Ringgit Malaysia, Won Korea Selatan, dan pada tingkat tertentu, peso Filipina Sugema, 2000. Krisis kredit macet perumahan berisiko tinggi subprime mortgage di Amerika Serikat menyebabkan krisis keuangan global dan pertumbuhan ekonomi dunia yang negatif kecuali Cina, India dan Indonesia. Krisis ekonomi yang terjadi di Yunani tahun 2010 telah merambat ke Portugal, dan diperkirakan akan menyusul ke Spanyol. Krisis yang terjadi di negara-negara lain dapat mempengaruhi perekonomian Indonesia jika krisis yang terjadi berpengaruh signifikan di negara-negara partner utama dagang Indonesia seperti Uni Eropa, dan pengaruhnya akan semakin besar jika krisis juga merambat ke Amerika Serikat dan Jepang, yang juga merupakan partner utama dagang Indonesia. Kedua adalah fenomena perubahan yang ditandai oleh lompatan kenaikan harga minyak mentah dunia MMD. Lompatan kenaikan harga MMD disajikan pada Gambar 1. Pada Gambar 1 terlihat bahwa harga MMD terus mengalami lompatan kenaikan. Lompatan kenaikan harga MMD yang pertama terjadi pada pertengahan tahun 1970-an dari sekitar USD 3 per barrel menjadi sekitar USD 10 per barrel. Lompatan kenaikan harga MMD yang kedua terjadi pada awal tahun 1980-an dari sekitar USD 15 per barrel menjadi sekitar USD 40 per barrel. Pada pertengahan tahun 1980-an, harga MMD mengalami penurunan menjadi sekitar USD 20 per barrel sebelum meningkat kembali pada awal tahun 1990-an menjadi sekitar USD 30 per barrel dan menurun menjadi sekitar USD 10 per barrel menjelang akhir tahun 1990-an. Lompatan ketiga mulai terjadi tahun 2000-an. Sejak tahun 2000 harga MMD cenderung terus meningkat. Pada awal tahun 2000 7 harga MMD meningkat kembali menjadi sekitar USD 30 per barrel dan sempat menurun menjadi sekitar USD 20 per barrel sebelum akhirnya terus meningkat hingga menjadi sekitar USD 90 per barrel pada akhir tahun 2000-an. Sumber: Energy Information Administration Gambar 1. Perkembangan Harga Minyak Mentah Dunia, 1970 - 2008 Ketiga adalah isu perubahan iklim global. Isu perubahan iklim dicirikan oleh empat tuntutan peubahan, yaitu: 1 perbaikan teknologi yang ramah lingkungan, 2 peningkatan produktivitas lahan, 3 pembatasan pemanfaatan hutan alam, khususnya di negara-negara berkembang, dan 4 peningkatan perluasan areal hutan tanaman pada areal-areal yang terdegradasi, atau bahkan konversi lahan nonhutan menjadi hutan. Tuntutan perbaikan teknologi ramah lingkungan ditekankan untuk seluruh aktivitas ekonomi. Dalam kasus energi muncul teknologi pemrosesan nabati sebagai energi pengganti fosil, intensifikasi pengembangan teknologi pemanfaatan 8 aliran air dan sinar matahari sebagai penghasil energi alternatif. Dalam kasus pengelolaan hutan alam muncul teknologi ramah lingkungan, RIL Reduced Impact Logging. Tiga fenomena perubahan tersebut berinteraksi menentukan besaran harga dan output perekonomian. Konsekuensinya, masing-masing negara harus melaksanakan langkah-langkah penyesuaian adjustment pada seluruh lini sektor ekonomi. Dengan kata lain, perekonomian dunia sedang mengalami proses-proses penyesuaian bukan saja berkaitan dengan pasar dunia yang semakin terintegrasi dan lompatan kenaikan harga MMD namun juga berkaitan dengan isu perubahan iklim. Bagaimana dampak perubahan yang terjadi terhadap masa depan perekonomian belum banyak dipahami. Hal ini menyarankan pentingnya memahami bukan hanya pengaruh kebijakan makroekonomi dan perubahan faktor eksternal seperti suku bunga, nilai tukar, kebijakan tarif dan non-tarif, serta harga MMD terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, namun penting juga memahami dampak pertumbuhan ekonomi terhadap perubahan iklim, termasuk deforestasi dan degradasi hutan. Kinerja makroekonomi Indonesia periode 1990 – 2006 dengan krisis ekonomi yang terjadi pada periode 1997 – 1999 memberikan bukti empiris adanya keterkaitan antara perubahan faktor eksternal, kinerja makroekonomi, dan deforestasi dan degradasi hutan. Gambar 2 menyajikan pertumbuhan Produk Domestik Bruto PDB periode 1990 – 2006. Dari Gambar 2 terlihat bahwa pada periode 1990 – 1996 ekonomi Indonesia mengalami pertumbuhan tinggi yaitu di atas 7 per tahun. Namun pada pertengahan tahun 1997 Juli, krisis moneter regional menguncang perekonomian Indonesia dan menyebabkan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia tahun 1997 menurun drastis menjadi 4.7. Setahun kemudian yakni tahun 1998, ekonomi Indonesia mengalami pertumbuhan negatif sebesar