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LAMPIRAN
139
Lampiran 1. Data yang Digunakan untuk Pendugaan Model Ekonomi Deforestasi dan Degradasi Hutan
Tahun Y
t
C
t
G
t
T
t
I
t
1980 45446.00 27503.00 4688.00
2691.00 9485.00 1981 58127.00 32293.00
6452.00 3248.00 17324.00
1982 62476.00 37924.00 7229.00
3813.00 17406.00 1983 73698.00 44739.00
8077.00 4394.00 21669.00
1984 89750.30 54063.50 9121.50
4793.70 23407.70 1985 96996.80 57201.40
10893.90 6329.50 27202.80
1986 102682.60 63355.30 11328.70
8482.30 29033.90 1987 124816.90 71988.90
11763.50 9930.50 39146.00
1988 142104.80 81045.30 12755.80
12344.60 44809.50 1989 167184.70 88752.30
15697.60 16084.40 58830.80
1990 195597.20 106312.30 17572.60
22010.90 70704.90 1991 227450.20 125035.80
20784.60 24919.30 80741.70
1992 259884.50 135880.30 24731.30
30091.50 93225.10 1993 329775.80 192258.40
29756.70 36645.10 97912.80
1994 382219.70 228119.30 31014.00
44565.00 118707.10 1995 454514.10 279876.40
35584.20 49664.00 145117.90
1996 532568.00 332094.40 40299.20
60974.00 263453.10 1997 672625.40 387170.70
42952.00 70040.00 244231.21
1998 955753.50 647823.60 54415.90
91919.00 160327.30 1999 1099731.60 813183.30
72631.30 100274.00 125010.90
2000 1264918.70 850818.70 90779.70
115800.00 203645.80 2001 1684280.50 1039655.00
113416.10 179892.00 395041.10
2002 1863274.80 1231964.50 132218.80
219627.50 384392.80 2003 2036351.90 1372078.00
163701.40 248469.80 349792.60
2004 2295826.00 1532888.00 191056.00
280559.00 464619.00 2005 2774281.00 1785596.00
224981.00 346997.00 648665.00
2006 3339217.00 2092656.00 288080.00
409055.00 777753.00 2007 3950893.00 2510504.00
329760.00 491835.00 950926.00
2008 4948688.00 2999957.00 416867.00
641008.70 1479647.00
140
Lampiran 1. Lanjutan X
t
M
t
MS
t
DEF
t
IHK
t
π
t
π
E t
13850.00 10080.00 7691.00 9.45
12.24 14.04
12.24 16177.00 14119.00 9716.00
11.20 13.74
12.24 9.48 15103.00 15186.00 11075.00
11.77 15.04
9.48 11.79
20448.00 21235.00 14663.00 13.33
16.81 11.79 8.16
22998.10 19840.50 17937.00 14.43
18.18 8.16 4.75
21533.90 19835.20 23153.00 15.20
19.05 4.75 5.81
20000.90 21036.20 27661.00 15.20
20.15 5.81 9.28
29874.30 27955.80 33885.00 17.60
22.02 9.28 8.06
34665.60 31171.40 41998.00 18.95
23.80 8.06 6.42
42505.00 38601.00 58705.00 20.74
25.32 6.42 7.80
51953.10 50945.70 84630.00 22.63
27.30 7.80 9.42
62263.80 61375.70 99059.00 24.61
29.87 9.42 7.53
76384.40 70336.60 119053.00
26.41 32.12
7.53 9.69 88230.90 78383.00
145202.00 31.47
35.23 9.69 8.51
101331.90 96952.60 174512.00
33.91 38.23
8.51 9.44 119592.50 125656.90 222638.00
37.26 41.84
9.44 7.97 37533.30 140812.00 288632.00
40.50 45.17
7.97 11.79 174871.30 176599.80 355643.00
48.85 50.50
11.79 77.54 506244.80 413058.10 577381.00
79.90 89.66
77.54 2.01 390560.10 301654.00 646205.00
91.22 91.45
2.01 9.35 542992.40 423317.90 747028.00
100.00 100.00
9.35 12.55 642594.60 506426.30 844054.00
116.72 112.55
12.55 9.00 595514.00 480815.30 883908.00
123.71 122.68
9.00 8.00 613720.80 462940.90 944366.00
129.11 132.49
8.00 4.86 739639.00 632376.00
1033528.00 138.59
138.93 4.86 10.46
945122.00 830083.00 1202762.00
158.46 153.46
10.46 13.10 1036316.00 855588.00
1382493.00 180.78
173.56 13.10 6.41
1162974.00 1003271.00 1649662.00 201.13
184.69 6.41 13.86
1475119.00 1422902.00 1895839.00 237.64
210.29 13.86 2.78
141
Lampiran 1. Lanjutan W
t
r
t
e
t
P
P
BBM t
POP
t
LS
t
LD
t
70138.80 12.91 799.36 52.50
150.07 52.42 51.53
73552.50 16.31 749.59 64.25
153.30 56.01 54.67
63847.00 17.29 763.90 85.00
156.54 59.60 57.80
62026.30 12.90 1040.67
145.00 159.78
63.19 60.94 48206.50 19.39
1052.75 220.00
161.58 61.36 60.08
56030.00 9.95 1235.72
242.00 162.66
63.83 62.46
67483.50 13.26 2007.25
200.00 165.87
70.19 68.34 78024.50 14.50
2340.79 198.93
169.15 72.25 70.40
86961.00 14.93 2329.41
201.82 172.49
74.60 72.52 103264.00 12.40
2361.55 200.78
175.90 75.51 73.43
138585.00 14.94 2704.48
245.00 179.38
77.80 75.85 175480.50 12.64
2849.42 300.00
182.35 78.46 76.42
193044.50 8.72 2835.25
249.54 185.38
80.70 78.52
215987.00 9.79 2898.21
380.00 188.45
81.45 79.20
286660.00 13.64 3211.67
380.00 191.58
85.78 82.04 323415.50 13.64
3430.82 380.00
194.75 86.36 80.11
334818.00 13.96 3426.66
380.00 197.00
90.11 85.70 339826.67 26.98
6274.01 380.00
199.28 89.60 85.41
365252.90 64.08 11299.40
600.00 201.58
92.74 87.67 390679.13 7.61
9724.23 480.88
203.91 94.85
88.82 416105.36 10.58
12501.40 550.00
206.26 95.65 89.84
441531.59 14.56 13070.00
1056.50 208.65
98.81 90.81 488563.21 14.20
12154.10 1318.75
211.06 100.78 91.65
520813.40 8.95 12578.70
1668.46 216.95
102.32 92.22
459894.25 6.20 14427.50
1650.00 220.08
103.97 93.72
510120.03 7.11 14049.70
2876.92 218.87
105.80 94.95
611385.03 9.26 13569.70
4300.00 224.00
106.30 95.18
677641.00 6.25 9136.20
4300.00 225.64
109.94 99.93
761506.06 8.52 9679.55
5400.00 228.52
112.80 102.55
142
Lampiran 1. Lanjutan UL
t
A
HPH t
q
HA
t DG
HPH t
S
KHA t
S
KILL t
P
P
KHA t
0.89 49407.00 19.97 4477.50 27797.23
393.94 48760.96
1.34 50789.00 14.43 1382.00 15954.43
4991.69 46474.58
1.80 52632.00 14.57 1843.00 13376.51
8538.64 44306.20
2.25 60974.00 13.01 8342.00 15208.57
7455.63 43708.14
1.28 53374.00 15.60 -7600.00 15957.64
7829.85 45268.25
1.37 53375.00 16.47 1.00
14551.95 10572.14
50664.52 1.86 55468.00 17.94 2093.00
19758.29 8672.54
60217.50 1.84 55468.00 22.15
0.00 27500.00
7606.93 84268.44
2.08 57656.00 22.64 2188.00 26310.00
10991.57 100164.63
2.08 57656.00 24.42 0.00
26030.00 14204.10
99185.10 1.95 58881.00 23.31 1225.00
25770.00 13441.92
116292.64 2.03 60480.00 21.73 1599.00
23810.00 13739.94
131073.32 2.19 61380.00 22.13 900.00
26050.00 12768.42
133256.75 2.25 61700.00 21.97 320.00
25190.00 13539.33
136215.87 3.74 61030.00 20.38 -670.00
22250.00 13284.08
160583.50 6.25 56170.00 21.43 -4860.00
22930.00 11457.01
202418.38 4.41 54090.00 23.26 -2080.00
25290.00 10663.98
222732.90 4.20 52280.00 17.78 -1810.00
19720.00 6840.24
392183.97 5.06 51580.00 15.52 -700.00
14330.00 8537.78
752736.65 6.03 41840.00 18.20 -9740.00
10370.00 11382.22
691465.68 5.86 39160.00 20.28 -2680.00
3400.00 19295.59
949851.37 8.01 36420.00 17.16 -2740.00
1809.10 16045.70 1061724.46
9.13 28080.00 22.47 -8340.00 3019.84
15004.93 1055824.24 10.10 27800.00 19.07 -280.00
4104.91 11039.31 1006296.00
10.25 27820.00 16.51 20.00
3510.76 9609.38 1514887.50
10.85 27270.00 19.56 -550.00 5720.52
9519.93 2388449.00 11.10 28700.00 11.99 1430.00
5586.72 4242.42 2849637.00
10.01 23569.00 13.14 -5131.00 6437.69
2413.45 2165279.79 9.39 26160.00 11.39 2591.00
4629.02 3884.53 2255335.05
143
Lampiran 1. Lanjutan S
XKHA t
DR
t
PSDH
t
D
KHAKL t
P
P
XKL t
D
KHAKG t
GP
HPH
t 16314.00 2528.00
1939.67 2246.67
163868.80 9630.50
0.00 6957.00 2546.32
1993.73 3451.11
155165.13 10538.00
0.00 3524.00 2665.60
2175.99 4755.56
163474.60 13635.60
0.00 3494.00 3577.16
2503.69 6540.00
231028.74 12630.20
0.00 2059.00 4120.32
2759.46 8488.89
215813.75 13239.60
0.00 479.00 4459.32
2756.18 10408.89
249615.44 14236.20
0.00 0.00 5131.40
2923.88 13333.33
427544.25 15097.50
0.00 0.00 6610.40
3606.19 15333.33
690533.05 19773.60
0.00 0.00 7106.00
4507.79 16666.67
761717.07 20634.90
0.00 0.00 26582.10
4508.36 19520.00
767503.75 20714.10 0.00
0.00 27749.85 4869.88
20922.22 878956.00
18289.70 1.00 0.00 29880.00
5524.09 20274.44
940308.60 17275.50 1.00
0.00 30930.00 5838.32
21942.22 963985.00
16876.20 1.00 0.00 31650.00
5985.01 22053.33 1272314.19
16676.00 1.00 0.00 33000.00
6621.84 21857.78 1381018.10
13676.30 1.00 0.00 34620.00
8875.11 21111.11 1406636.20
13275.90 1.00 0.00 35745.00
8875.11 21277.78 1432343.88
14676.20 0.00 0.00 69750.00
8823.75 21333.33 2888415.55
5226.90 0.00 0.00 120375.00
16111.90 17333.33 3333323.00 5534.44 0.00
298.56 106500.00 32385.49
17333.33 3500722.80 4120.33 0.00 449.84 20525.48
34209.13 16666.67 3312871.00
5579.09 0.00 282.84 22326.90
37211.51 16222.22 2614000.00
1349.74 0.00 0.00 20961.45
34935.76 16777.78 2856213.50
1246.99 0.00 0.00 201259.20
35875.00 13579.01 3144675.00 1565.21 0.00
0.00 230840.00 36525.00
12254.20 5049625.00 865.93 0.00 0.00 224795.20
36125.00 12297.22 5760377.00 2943.23 0.00
0.00 217115.20 36125.00
8470.65 6242062.00 1358.49 0.00 0.00 146179.23
42350.00 7676.33 4421921.60 1174.80 0.00
0.00 154872.79 42350.00
7452.18 4481631.46 1061.38 0.00
144
Lampiran 1. Lanjutan A
HTI t
q
HTI t
DF
HTI t
S
KHTI t
D
KHTI t
P
P
KHTIt
P
P
PULP t
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 50.00
233885.79 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
55.00 219323.52
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 63.00
223510.50 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
72.00 304491.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 83.65
308025.50 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
84.60 361560.94
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 88.40
587303.91 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
93.16 684894.82
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 97.91
681565.13 30.00 0.00
30.00 0.00 0.00
103.61 1251350.06
30.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 108.37
1488656.12 30.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
115.02 1352826.90
235.62 0.00 205.62 0.00
0.00 118.82
1246335.79 235.62 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00
119.77 1002612.69
235.62 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 128.33
1826987.67 296.55 1.74
60.93 514.69
514.69 139.73
1307375.43 2043.24 0.23
1746.69 474.27
474.27 142.59
1312184.51 3179.24 0.13
1136.00 428.89
428.89 155.89
2601006.00 4301.75 0.11
1122.52 480.21
480.21 212.93
4666894.38 4452.61 0.04
150.86 187.83
187.83 180.61
3914029.49 4557.25 0.83
104.63 3783.60
3783.60 223.38
6670375.33 4647.74 1.20
90.49 5567.28
5567.28 250.94
4330132.08 4673.25 0.91
25.51 4242.53
4242.53 233.36
3823030.23 4751.59 1.12
78.34 5325.77
5325.77 226.42
4186493.75 6103.79 1.20
1352.20 7329.03
7329.03 302.98
5068083.47 6169.09 2.08
65.30 12818.20 12818.20
323.14 5063191.91
6521.74 3.37 352.65
21981.82 21981.82 332.46
5357001.96 7089.44 2.91
567.70 20614.21 20614.21
242.11 3828909.07
7150.20 3.12 60.76
22318.89 22318.89 290.39
5263726.48
145
Lampiran 1. Lanjutan GP
HTI t
A
TSW
t q
SW t
DF
SW t
S
BSW t
D
BSW t
P
P
BSW t
0.00 294.56 11.13
33.62 3278.05
3278.05 25.18
0.00 318.97 11.40
24.41 3636.64
3636.64 31.25
0.00 329.90 12.22
10.93 4031.00
4031.00 23.08
0.00 405.65 11.01
75.75 4468.12
4468.12 32.04
0.00 512.02 10.18
106.38 5214.50
5214.50 46.22
0.00 597.36 9.46
85.34 5651.95
5651.95 37.98
0.00 606.78 10.12
9.42 6139.68
6139.68 38.93
0.00 728.66 9.39
121.88 6845.70
6845.70 48.64
0.00 862.86 9.03
134.20 7787.89
7787.89 61.01
0.00 973.53 9.17
110.67 8931.61
8931.61 53.38
0.00 1126.68 9.73
153.15 10966.42
10966.42 62.26
0.00 1311.00 9.21
184.32 12080.00
12080.00 78.55
0.00 1467.47 10.12
156.47 14846.59
14846.59 79.19
0.00 1613.19 9.64
145.72 15552.04
15552.04 63.24
0.00 1804.15 10.10
190.96 18218.46
18218.46 90.50
0.00 2024.99 10.06
220.84 20362.14
20362.14 145.93
0.00 2249.51 9.90
224.53 22266.63
22266.63 143.51
0.00 2922.30 8.47
672.78 24765.95
24765.95 147.33
0.00 3560.20 7.57
637.90 26956.43
26956.43 462.24
0.00 3901.80 7.52
341.61 29343.59
29343.59 357.52
0.00 4158.08 7.65
256.28 31820.49
31820.49 349.88
0.00 4713.44 8.10
555.36 38165.78
38165.78 295.33
0.00 5067.06 8.63
353.62 43737.93
43737.93 385.88
0.00 5283.56 8.98
216.50 47458.34
47458.34 488.42
1.00 5284.72 9.32
1.17 49229.04
49229.04 573.13
1.00 5453.82 9.89
169.09 53916.43
53916.43 499.20
1.00 6594.91 11.96
1141.10 78867.49
78867.49 551.19
1.00 6766.84 11.87
171.92 80294.20
80294.20 889.77
1.00 7363.85 10.83
597.01 79726.31
79726.31 1180.71
146
Lampiran 1. Lanjutan P
P
DMSW t
P
P
XMSW t
A
TKR t
qKR t
DF
KR t
Q
KR t
D
DKR t
313255.83 377416.66 2383.81
0.43 -0.22
1020.00 43.87 344601.48 405413.50
2440.12 0.39
56.32 963.24 154.51
241042.10 283578.94 2483.92
0.36 43.80
899.21 97.81 291852.23 335462.33
2578.00 0.39
94.08 1006.98 68.98
295688.44 469346.74 2711.22
0.38 133.22
1032.60 23.00 415524.00 477613.80
2775.26 0.38
64.05 1054.97 54.07
404214.49 404214.49 2873.58
0.39 98.32
1113.13 154.43 648151.93 648151.93
2849.96 0.40
-23.63 1130.35 37.55
937425.43 937425.43 2944.32
0.40 94.37
1173.30 41.30 753623.23 753623.23
3055.96 0.40
111.64 1209.04 57.24
570644.56 570644.56 3141.61
0.41 85.65
1275.30 198.00 892042.30 892042.30
3173.92 0.42
32.31 1328.17 108.17
1055366.05 1055366.05 3289.22 0.43
115.30 1398.45 130.35
1052794.78 1052794.78 3405.02 0.43
115.80 1475.44 261.14
875092.51 1458487.52 3472.38 0.43
67.36 1499.42 254.62
1220505.77 2034176.28 3495.90 0.45
23.52 1573.30 249.50
1083088.20 1805147.01 3518.44 0.45
22.54 1574.03 139.73
1887703.34 3146172.23 3474.40 0.45
-44.04 1552.59 148.79
2328137.20 5820343.01 3607.30 0.46
132.89 1661.90
20.70 2773123.32 3648846.48 3595.06
0.45 -12.23
1604.36 109.82 3359615.61 3536437.48 3372.42
0.45 -222.64
1501.43 121.82 2836365.86 2924088.51 3344.77
0.48 -27.65
1607.46 154.08 3915261.34 4036351.90 3318.36
0.49 -26.41
1630.36 134.37 4708731.65 4854362.53 3290.11
0.54 -28.25
1792.35 130.14 5770598.35 5949070.46 3262.27
0.63 -27.84
2065.82 191.56 5184791.72 5345146.10 3279.39
0.69 17.12
2270.89 246.30 4710246.29 4781975.92 3346.43
0.79 67.04
2637.23 350.33 5334666.11 6131800.12 3413.72
0.81 67.29
2755.17 347.20 6775952.51 7528836.12 3424.22
0.80 10.50
2751.29 468.13
147
Lampiran 1. Lanjutan S
XKR t
P
P
DKR t
P
P
XKR t
A
TPD t
q
PD t
DF
PD t
S
GKG t
976.13 780.00 407196.38 7824.04
3.79 148.93
29653.11 808.73 615.70 371015.21
8191.02 4.00
366.98 32764.08
801.40 506.70 300990.68 7872.60
4.27 -318.42
33616.00 938.00 865.30 548560.85
7986.91 4.42
114.31 35302.14
1009.60 952.30 640326.84 8547.12
4.46 560.21
38120.16 1000.90 773.10 593232.91
8755.72 4.46
208.60 39050.51
958.70 1219.20 1069614.61 8888.31
4.47 132.59 39730.75
1092.80 1479.50 1609909.47 8796.32
4.55 -91.99 40023.26
1132.00 1796.80 2169004.76 8925.38
4.67 129.06 41681.52
1151.80 1494.40 1862290.06 9364.95
4.77 439.57 44670.81
1077.30 1402.60 2126018.77 10502.51 4.30
1137.56 45160.79 1220.00 1490.20 2620683.33 10282.51
4.35 -220.00 44728.92
1268.10 1635.10 3051365.98 11103.11 4.34
820.60 48187.50 1214.30 1635.70 3234545.97 11013.91
4.38 -89.20 48129.32
1244.80 2452.10 5061341.86 10734.97 4.35
-278.94 46598.38 1323.80 3461.60 8962305.23 11439.22
4.35 704.25 49697.44
1434.30 3093.00 8567932.20 11569.84 4.41
130.62 51048.90 1403.80 3135.50 16994053.42 11141.59
4.43 -428.25 49339.09
1641.20 6256.00 16386896.29 11613.33 4.17
471.74 49236.69 1494.54 4579.17 5525311.83 11963.20
4.25 349.87 50866.39
1379.61 5251.67 8052286.85 11793.48 4.40
-169.72 51898.85 1453.38 10550.00 7070126.64 11499.99
4.39 -293.49 50460.78
1495.99 10750.00 8429640.30 11500.00 4.47
0.01 51489.69 1662.21 10300.00 11311915.54 11521.17
4.54 21.17 52137.60
1874.26 10430.00 16781210.51 11922.97 4.54
401.81 54088.47 2024.59 10750.00 17923908.11 11839.06
4.57 -83.91 54151.10
2286.90 15850.00 25642518.13 11786.43 4.62
-52.63 54454.94 2407.97 16950.00 18472567.35 12147.64
4.71 361.21 57157.44
2283.15 18550.00 25536075.23 12327.43 4.89
179.79 60325.93
148
Lampiran 1. Lanjutan D
GKG t
P
P
HPP t
P
P
GKG t
P
P
DBR t
oil
P t
r
US t
US
CPI t
π
US t
29653.11 105.00 189.82 198.39
31.32 13.36
47.85 13.50 32764.08 120.00
212.16 226.19 36.00
16.38 52.79 10.32
33616.00 135.00 229.61 254.92
36.15 12.26
56.04 6.16
35302.14 145.00 274.69 304.24
32.88 9.09
57.84 3.21
38120.16 165.00 284.81 330.97
28.87 10.23
60.34 4.32
39050.51 175.00 288.59 322.07
27.00 8.10
62.49 3.56
39730.75 175.00 167.27 345.24
14.32 6.81
63.65 1.86
40023.26 190.00 184.73 386.86
18.05 6.66
66.03 3.65
41681.52 210.00 381.62 469.20
14.62 7.57
68.67 4.14
44670.81 250.00 475.48 469.56
13.58 9.22
71.99 4.82
45160.79 270.00 466.68 525.17
18.91 8.21
75.88 5.40
44728.92 295.00 517.47 557.84
24.72 5.69
79.09 4.21
48187.50 330.00 303.70 603.68
16.22 3.52
81.48 3.01
48129.32 340.00 284.05 592.25
16.77 3.02
83.89 2.99
46598.38 360.00 325.83 660.37
12.37 3.02
86.08 2.56
49697.44 400.00 419.81 776.38
16.63 5.84
88.49 2.83
51048.90 450.00 432.75 880.00
19.61 5.30
91.09 2.95
49339.09 525.00 498.27
1064.03 18.28
5.46 93.22
2.29 49236.69 800.00
933.01 2099.71
11.71 5.35
94.66 1.56
50866.39 1400.00 1159.43 2665.58
17.13 4.97
96.73 2.21
51898.85 1400.00 964.72 2424.22
27.07 6.24
100.00 3.36
50460.78 1500.00 1141.22 2537.09
22.73 3.89
102.83 2.85
51489.69 1519.00 1255.46 2826.06
23.57 1.75
104.46 1.58
52137.60 1725.00 1249.33 2785.85
27.09 1.04
106.83 2.28
54088.47 1740.00 1258.31 2850.96
34.62 1.29
109.69 2.66
54151.10 2250.00 1567.67 3478.87
49.87 3.10
113.41 3.39
54454.94 2250.00 2509.72 5500.00
60.32 4.98
117.07 3.23
57157.44 2250.00 2654.51 6147.00
69.19 5.08
120.41 2.83
60325.93 2200.00 2767.66 6504.00
95.62 2.21
125.03 3.86
149
Lampiran 1. Lanjutan US
GDP t
KRISIS
t
FER
t
12243.00 0.00 0.00 13594.00 0.00 0.00
14009.00 0.00 0.00 15084.00 0.00 0.00
16629.00 0.00 0.00 17683.00 0.00 0.00
18531.00 0.00 0.00 19504.00 0.00 0.00
20813.00 0.00 0.00 22160.00 0.00 0.00
23185.00 0.00 0.00 23635.00 0.00 0.00
24686.00 0.00 0.00 25616.00 0.00 0.00
26893.00 0.00 0.00 27813.00 0.00 0.00
29062.00 0.00 0.00 30526.00 0.00 0.00
31843.00 1.00 1.00 33486.00 1.00 1.00
35237.00 1.00 1.00 36049.00 0.00 1.00
36935.00 0.00 1.00 38310.00 0.00 1.00
40386.00 0.00 1.00 42612.00 0.00 1.00
44732.00 0.00 1.00 46449.00 0.00 1.00
46883.00 0.00 1.00
151
Lampiran 2. Program Pendugaan Model Ekonomi Deforestasi dan Degradasi Hutan Alam Menggunakan Metode 2SLS, Prosedure SYSLIN,
Sofware SAS versi 9.0 DATA
OLAH; SET
AST.MIMA1; “BLOK MAKROEKONOMI”
RY=YDFLA
100 ;
LRY=LAGRY; PRY=RY-LRY;
RPPJK=PPJKDFLA
100 ;
LRPPJK=LAGRPPJK; RC=CDFLA
100 ;
RYD=RY-RPPJK; RG=GDFLA
100 ;
LRG=LAGRG; RI=IDFLA
100 ;
LRI=LAGRI; NX = X - M;
RNX = NXDFLA
100 ;
LRNX=LAGRNX; LR=LAGR;
RMS=MSDFLA
100 ;
LRMS=LAGRMS; LIHK=LAGIHK;
PIHK= IHK-LIHK; LEXR=LAGEXR;
RR=R-DINF; LRR=LAGRR;
L2RR=LAG2RR; P2RR=RR-L2RR;
L3RR=LAG3RR; REXR = EXRIHKUSCPI;
LUSCPI=LAGUSCPI; RFRATE = FEDRATE - USCPI-LUSCPILUSCPI
100 ;
UIP = RR – RFRATE; OILP=WOILDFLA100;
RW=WDFLA100; LRW=LAGRW;
LEMP=LAGEMP; UNEMP=LF-EMP;
LUSGDP=LAGUSGDP;
152
Lampiran 2. Lanjutan “BLOK DEFORESTASI”
“HTI” RHEPU=HEPUEXRDFLA100;
L2RHEPU=LAG2RHEPU; Lampiran 2. Lanjutan
PRHEPU=RHEPU-LRHEPU; RHKHTI=HKHTIDFLA100;
LRHKHTI=LAGRHKHTI; RHBBM=HBBMDFLA100;
LAHTI=LAGAHTI; LQKHTI=LAGQKHTI;
LDKHTI=LAGDKHTI; LRHEPU=LAGRHEPU;
PRHEPU=RHEPU-LRHEPU; “SAWIT”
RHEMSW=HEMSWEXRDFLA100; LRHEMSW=LAGRHEMSW;
RHBSW=HBSWDFLA100; LRHBSW=LAGRHBSW;
LATSW=LAGATSW; LQBSW=LAGQBSW;
LRHDMSW=LAGRHDMSW; LDBSW=LAGDBSW;
“KARET” RHDKR=HDKRDFLA100;
L2RHDKR=LAG2RHDKR; RHEKR=HEKREXRDFLA100;
LRHEKR=LAGRHEKR; PRHEKR=RHEKR-LRHEKR;
LATKR=LAGATKR; LQKR=LAGQKR;
LDDKR=LAGDDKR; LQXKR=LAGQXKR;
“PADI” RHGKG=HGKGDFLA100;
LRHGKG=LAGRHGKG; RHPP=HPPDFLA100;
LRHPP=LAGRHPP; PRHPP=RHPP-LRHPP;
POP=JUMLAH PENDUDUK;
153
Lampiran 2. Lanjutan LATPD=LAGATPD;
LQGKG=LAGQGKG; RHDBR=LAGHDBRDFLA100;
LDGKG=LAGDGKG; TTDF =TDFHTI + TDFSW + TDFKR + TDFPD;
“BLOK DEGRADASI HUTAN” RHEKL=HEKLEXRDFLA100;
RHKHA=HKBHAEXRDFLA100; Lampiran 2. Lanjutan
LRHKHA=LAGRHKHA; L2QILL=LAG2QILL;
LQILL=LAGQILL; LAHPH=LAGAHPH;
RDR=DRDFLA100; RPSDH=PSDHDFLA100;
LQKBHA=LAGQKBHA; LDKBKG=LAGDKBKG;
LDKBKL=LAGDKBKL; Q=QILL+QKBHA;
RUN; PERINTAH PENDUGAAN MODEL
PROC syslin 2sls DATA=OLAH outest=a; ENDOGENOUS
R RR UIP EXR RPPJK RG RI RNX RC RY IHK EMP UNEMP TDFHTI QKHTI DKHTI RHKHTI
TDFSW QBSW DBSW RHBSW TDFKR QKR DDKR QXKR RHDKR
TDFPD QGKG DGKG RHGKG TTDF
TDGHPH QILL QKBHA DKBKG DKBKL RHKHA ; INSTRUMENTS
OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI
RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR
RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD
154
Lampiran 2. Lanjutan RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH
RPSDH RDR QXKB ; “ Blok Makroekonomi”
Model RC = RYD RRDW ; Model RPPJK = RY RR LRPPJKDW ;
Model RG = RPPJK OILP LRGDW; Model RI = L2RR RY KRISIS LRIDW ;
Model RNX = REXR RY OILP LRNX; Model R = LRMS PIHK EXPINF KRISIS FER LRDW ;
Model IHK = LRY LIHKDW ; Model EXR = UIP LRNX RMS KRISIS LEXRDW ;
Model EMP = LRW RY LEMP ; Identity RY = RC + RI + RG + RNX ;
Identity RR = R-DINF; Identity UIP = RR -RFRATE ;
Identity UNEMP = LF - EMP; “ Blok Deforestasi”
Model TDFHTI = L2RHEPU RHKHTI P2RR RW RHBBM RHEKR
RHEMSW RHEKL PPHTI LAHTIDW; Model QKHTI = RHKHTI RR PRODHTI AHTI LQKHTIDW;
Model DKHTI = RHKHTI RR RW PRHEPU PRY LDKHTIDW; Model RHKHTI = PRHEPU RHKHA LQKHTI LRHKHTIDW;
Identity DKHTI = QKHTI; Model TDFSW = RHEMSW RHBSW L3RR RW LRHKHTI LRHKHA
LATSWDW ; Model QBSW = LRHBSW RR PRODSW ATSW LQBSWDW ;
Model DBSW = RHBSW RR RW RHDMSW RY LDBSWDW; Model RHBSW = RHEMSW DBSW LRHBSWDW;
Identity QBSW = DBSW; Model TDFKR = RHDKR RR RHKHA RHEMSW RHEKR LATKRDW ;
Model QKR = RHDKR RR PRODKR ATKR LQKRDW; Model DDKR = RHDKR LRR RY-LRY LDDKRDW;
Model QXKR = LRHEKR L2RHDKR LUSGDP LQXKRDW; Model RHDKR = PRHEKR QXKR QKR LRHDKRDW;
Identity QKR = DDKR + QXKR; Model TDFPD = RHGKG RHPP RR RHBBM RHKHA RHKHTI POP
LATPD; Model QGKG = RHGKG RR RHBBM PRODPD LQGKGDW;
155
Lampiran 2. Lanjutan Model DGKG = LRHPP RR RHBBM RHDBR RY LDGKGDW;
Model RHGKG = PRHPP QGKG LRHGKGDW; Identity QGKG = DGKG;
Identity TTDF = TDFHTI + TDFSW + TDFKR + TDFPD; “Blok Degradasi Hutan”
Model TDGHPH = RHEKL RHKHA RR L2QILL LRHEMSW LRHEKR
KPIHPH LAHPHDW; Model QILL = RHKHA RR RHBBM RDR PRODHA PKUM LQILLDW ;
Model QKBHA = LRHKHA LRR RPSDH PRODHA AHPH LQKBHADW; Model DKBKG = RHKHA RHKHTI RR RW RY LDKBKGDW;
Model DKBKL = RHKHA RHKHTI LRR RW RHEKL PRY LDKBKLDW; Model RHKHA = RHEKL Q LRHKHADW;
Identity QKBHA + QILL = DKBKG + DKBKL + QXKB ; RUN ;
157
Lampiran 3. Hasil Pendugaan Model Ekonomi Deforestasi dan Degradasi Hutan Alam Menggunakan Metode 2SLS, Prosedure SYSLIN, Software
SAS versi 9.0
The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model RC Dependent Variable RC
Label Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 2 2.212E12 1.106E12 457.77 .0001 Error 23 5.557E10 2.4162E9
Corrected Total 25 2.268E12 Root MSE 49154.4390 R‐Square 0.97549
Dependent Mean 742744.166 Adj R‐Sq 0.97336 Coeff Var 6.61795
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 ‐85438.2 35822.04 ‐2.39 0.0257
RYD 1 0.781288 0.029515 26.47 .0001 RR 1 ‐1760.78 1984.191 ‐0.89 0.3840
Durbin‐Watson 1.052469 Number of Observations 26
First‐Order Autocorrelation 0.416751
158
Lampiran 3. Lanjutan
The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model RPPJK Dependent Variable RPPJK
Label Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 3 1.078E11 3.595E10 355.85 .0001 Error 22 2.2224E9 1.0102E8
Corrected Total 25 1.101E11 Root MSE 10050.7067 R‐Square 0.97981
Dependent Mean 129890.758 Adj R‐Sq 0.97705 Coeff Var 7.73782
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 ‐30515.6 9745.479 ‐3.13 0.0049
RY 1 0.088386 0.024595 3.59 0.0016 RR 1 297.9840 434.6253 0.69 0.5001
LRPPJK 1 0.445448 0.178907 2.49 0.0208 Durbin‐Watson 0.874376
Number of Observations 26 First‐Order Autocorrelation 0.545132
159
Lampiran 3. Lanjutan
The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model RG Dependent Variable RG
Label Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 3 2.576E10 8.5863E9 170.68 .0001 Error 22 1.1068E9 50307889
Corrected Total 25 2.687E10 Root MSE 7092.80546 R‐Square 0.95880
Dependent Mean 98172.7635 Adj R‐Sq 0.95319 Coeff Var 7.22482
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 4609.400 6998.157 0.66 0.5169
RPPJK 1 0.339781 0.100765 3.37 0.0027 OILP 1 100.5573 41.08604 2.45 0.0228
LRG 1 0.456354 0.192320 2.37 0.0268 Durbin‐Watson 1.463183
Number of Observations 26 First‐Order Autocorrelation 0.239173
160
Lampiran 3. Lanjutan
The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model RI Dependent Variable RI
Label Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 4 3.339E11 8.348E10 14.85 .0001 Error 21 1.181E11 5.6221E9
Corrected Total 25 4.52E11 Root MSE 74980.4695 R‐Square 0.73879
Dependent Mean 321683.099 Adj R‐Sq 0.68904 Coeff Var 23.30880
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 67056.85 55317.95 1.21 0.2389
L2RR 1 ‐2666.80 3195.097 ‐0.83 0.4133 RY 1 0.110685 0.047499 2.33 0.0298
KRISIS 1 ‐152416 46348.84 ‐3.29 0.0035 LRI 1 0.492063 0.152838 3.22 0.0041
Durbin‐Watson 1.705528 Number of Observations 26
First‐Order Autocorrelation 0.115386
161
Lampiran 3. Lanjutan
The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model RNX Dependent Variable RNX
Label Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 4 8.135E10 2.034E10 7.28 0.0008 Error 21 5.869E10 2.7947E9
Corrected Total 25 1.4E11 Root MSE 52864.8775 R‐Square 0.58090
Dependent Mean 33849.8970 Adj R‐Sq 0.50107 Coeff Var 156.17441
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 173633.9 66164.33 2.62 0.0158
REXR 1 14.09883 3.541466 3.98 0.0007 RY 1 ‐0.18107 0.058541 ‐3.09 0.0055
OILP 1 ‐321.596 254.7716 ‐1.26 0.2207 LRNX 1 ‐0.00045 0.185294 ‐0.00 0.9981
Durbin‐Watson 2.153832 Number of Observations 26
First‐Order Autocorrelation ‐0.07775
162
Lampiran 3. Lanjutan
The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model R Dependent Variable R
Label R Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 6 2427.876 404.6460 11.89 .0001 Error 19 646.4055 34.02134
Corrected Total 25 3074.281 Root MSE 5.83278 R‐Square 0.78974
Dependent Mean 14.19077 Adj R‐Sq 0.72334 Coeff Var 41.10265
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 11.01951 3.739373 2.95 0.0083
LRMS 1 ‐0.00001 0.000010 ‐1.45 0.1622 PIHK 1 1.328117 0.194529 6.83 .0001
EXPINF 1 0.223206 0.106271 2.10 0.0493 KRISIS 1 10.84997 5.355263 2.03 0.0570
FER 1 ‐12.1245 5.232919 ‐2.32 0.0318 LR 1 0.140253 0.145632 0.96 0.3476
Durbin‐Watson 1.502834 Number of Observations 26
First‐Order Autocorrelation 0.093567
163
Lampiran 3. Lanjutan
The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model EXR Dependent Variable EXR
Label EXR Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 5 5.7197E8 1.1439E8 58.50 .0001 Error 20 39109777 1955489
Corrected Total 25 6.1108E8 Root MSE 1398.38795 R‐Square 0.93600
Dependent Mean 6622.65928 Adj R‐Sq 0.92000 Coeff Var 21.11520
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 284.3159 732.1621 0.39 0.7019
UIP 1 ‐73.2820 62.23908 ‐1.18 0.2528 LRNX 1 ‐0.00964 0.005849 ‐1.65 0.1151
RMS 1 0.001234 0.002313 0.53 0.5995 KRISIS 1 1801.065 994.2221 1.81 0.0851
LEXR 1 0.931677 0.138832 6.71 .0001 Durbin‐Watson 1.964423
Number of Observations 26 First‐Order Autocorrelation 0.013272
164
Lampiran 3. Lanjutan
The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model EMP Dependent Variable EMP
Label EMP Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 3 3478.275 1159.425 385.58 .0001 Error 22 66.15400 3.007000
Corrected Total 25 3544.429 Root MSE 1.73407 R‐Square 0.98134
Dependent Mean 82.26003 Adj R‐Sq 0.97879 Coeff Var 2.10804
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 12.12663 4.838827 2.51 0.0201
LRW 1 ‐4.32E‐7 2.088E‐6 ‐0.21 0.8381 RY 1 5.007E‐6 2.742E‐6 1.83 0.0814
LEMP 1 0.799167 0.098480 8.12 .0001 Durbin‐Watson 2.765881
Number of Observations 26 First‐Order Autocorrelation ‐0.3836
165
Lampiran 3. Lanjutan
The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model TDFHTI Dependent Variable TDFHTI
Label TDFHTI Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 10 4803280 480328.0 5.95 0.0011 Error 15 1210446 80696.38
Corrected Total 25 6013725 Root MSE 284.07108 R‐Square 0.79872
Dependent Mean 275.00754 Adj R‐Sq 0.66453 Coeff Var 103.29574
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 6935.613 2028.373 3.42 0.0038
L2RHEPU 1 0.000130 0.000071 1.83 0.0879 RHKHTI 1 ‐6.72131 2.680177 ‐2.51 0.0241
PRR2 1 ‐18.0749 10.28242 ‐1.76 0.0992 RW 1 ‐0.00443 0.001322 ‐3.35 0.0044
RHBBM 1 ‐0.79518 0.263443 ‐3.02 0.0086 RHEKR 1 0.000124 0.000028 4.47 0.0004
RHEMSW 1 ‐0.00019 0.000115 ‐1.61 0.1272 RHEKL 1 ‐0.00034 0.000110 ‐3.11 0.0072
PPHTI 1 1430.859 361.3547 3.96 0.0013 LAHTI 1 ‐0.65035 0.207582 ‐3.13 0.0068
Durbin‐Watson 2.571377 Number of Observations 26
First‐Order Autocorrelation ‐0.30352
166
Lampiran 3. Lanjutan
The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model QKHTI Dependent Variable QKHTI
Label QKHTI Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 5 1.2503E9 2.5006E8 147.39 .0001 Error 20 33930929 1696546
Corrected Total 25 1.2842E9 Root MSE 1302.51542 R‐Square 0.97358
Dependent Mean 4079.50873 Adj R‐Sq 0.96697 Coeff Var 31.92824
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 ‐6539.66 2443.775 ‐2.68 0.0145
RHKHTI 1 13.02495 4.914103 2.65 0.0153 RR 1 ‐58.1816 55.17475 ‐1.05 0.3042
PRODHTI 1 3064.270 573.6662 5.34 .0001 AHTI 1 0.873631 0.316879 2.76 0.0122
LQKHTI 1 0.539577 0.096994 5.56 .0001 Durbin‐Watson 2.169606
Number of Observations 26 First‐Order Autocorrelation ‐0.08754
167
Lampiran 3. Lanjutan
The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model DKHTI Dependent Variable DKHTI
Label DKHTI Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 6 1.2194E9 2.0324E8 59.60 .0001 Error 19 64793732 3410196
Corrected Total 25 1.2842E9 Root MSE 1846.67171 R‐Square 0.94955
Dependent Mean 4079.50873 Adj R‐Sq 0.93361 Coeff Var 45.26701
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 3508.862 1929.397 1.82 0.0848
RHKHTI 1 ‐2.15949 3.422643 ‐0.63 0.5356 RR 1 ‐279.684 100.4655 ‐2.78 0.0118
RW 1 ‐0.00406 0.002448 ‐1.66 0.1136 PRHEPU1 1 0.000498 0.000304 1.64 0.1177
EGROWTH 1 0.025414 0.009037 2.81 0.0111 LDKHTI 1 0.827561 0.104093 7.95 .0001
Durbin‐Watson 1.822172 Number of Observations 26
First‐Order Autocorrelation 0.068915
168
Lampiran 3. Lanjutan
The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model RHKHTI Dependent Variable RHKHTI
Label Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 4 583563.0 145890.7 157.53 .0001 Error 21 19449.00 926.1427
Corrected Total 25 603012.0 Root MSE 30.43259 R‐Square 0.96775
Dependent Mean 350.81152 Adj R‐Sq 0.96160 Coeff Var 8.67491
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 12.87728 47.06403 0.27 0.7871
PRHEPU1 1 7.366E‐6 4.627E‐6 1.59 0.1263 RHKHA 1 ‐0.00001 0.000032 ‐0.44 0.6678
LQKHTI 1 ‐0.00050 0.001360 ‐0.37 0.7162 LRHKHTI 1 0.953077 0.074089 12.86 .0001
Durbin‐Watson 1.814317 Number of Observations 26
First‐Order Autocorrelation 0.076987
169
Lampiran 3. Lanjutan
The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model TDFSW Dependent Variable TDFSW
Label TDFSW Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 7 915131.7 130733.1 3.23 0.0212 Error 18 729203.3 40511.29
Corrected Total 25 1644335 Root MSE 201.27418 R‐Square 0.55654
Dependent Mean 270.53638 Adj R‐Sq 0.38408 Coeff Var 74.39819
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 803.3888 811.9403 0.99 0.3355
RHEMSW 1 0.000089 0.000057 1.56 0.1358 RHBSW 1 ‐0.64083 0.816883 ‐0.78 0.4430
L3RR 1 ‐10.6158 8.379574 ‐1.27 0.2214 RW 1 ‐0.00023 0.000320 ‐0.70 0.4902
LRHKHTI 1 ‐1.66153 1.259095 ‐1.32 0.2035 LRHKHA 1 0.000877 0.000298 2.95 0.0086
LATSW 1 ‐0.18746 0.121500 ‐1.54 0.1403 Durbin‐Watson 2.716435
Number of Observations 26 First‐Order Autocorrelation ‐0.46754
170
Lampiran 3. Lanjutan
The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model QBSW Dependent Variable QBSW
Label QBSW Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 5 1.412E10 2.8239E9 729.60 .0001 Error 20 77408544 3870427
Corrected Total 25 1.42E10 Root MSE 1967.34014 R‐Square 0.99455
Dependent Mean 28600.5276 Adj R‐Sq 0.99318 Coeff Var 6.87868
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 ‐42682.3 6222.119 ‐6.86 .0001
LRHBSW 1 3.688968 6.469994 0.57 0.5749 RR 1 ‐5.91076 83.53211 ‐0.07 0.9443
PRODSW 1 4225.291 538.0842 7.85 .0001 ATSW 1 9.052626 0.882347 10.26 .0001
LQBSW 1 0.113077 0.094343 1.20 0.2447 Durbin‐Watson 1.234089
Number of Observations 26 First‐Order Autocorrelation 0.263544
171
Lampiran 3. Lanjutan
The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model DBSW Dependent Variable DBSW
Label DBSW Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 6 1.389E10 2.3155E9 145.00 .0001 Error 19 3.0341E8 15968873
Corrected Total 25 1.42E10 Root MSE 3996.10727 R‐Square 0.97863
Dependent Mean 28600.5276 Adj R‐Sq 0.97188 Coeff Var 13.97215
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 ‐3278.60 11346.38 ‐0.29 0.7757
RHBSW 1 ‐22.1345 12.97036 ‐1.71 0.1042 RR 1 ‐265.628 181.6144 ‐1.46 0.1599
RW 1 ‐0.01186 0.006736 ‐1.76 0.0945 RHDMSW 1 1.239352 2.776737 0.45 0.6604
RY 1 0.024577 0.011312 2.17 0.0427 LDBSW 1 0.599280 0.204810 2.93 0.0087
Durbin‐Watson 2.273608 Number of Observations 26
First‐Order Autocorrelation ‐0.15467
172
Lampiran 3. Lanjutan
The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model RHBSW Dependent Variable RHBSW
Label Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 3 111080.2 37026.75 11.66 .0001 Error 22 69858.48 3175.385
Corrected Total 25 180938.7 Root MSE 56.35056 R‐Square 0.61391
Dependent Mean 329.55246 Adj R‐Sq 0.56126 Coeff Var 17.09912
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 82.20102 55.77476 1.47 0.1547
RHEMSW 1 0.000042 9.851E‐6 4.25 0.0003 DBSW 1 0.001973 0.000530 3.72 0.0012
LRHBSW 1 0.099541 0.153600 0.65 0.5237 Durbin‐Watson 1.966142
Number of Observations 26 First‐Order Autocorrelation ‐0.03386
173
Lampiran 3. Lanjutan
The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model TDFKR Dependent Variable TDFKR
Label TDFKR Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 6 71229.74 11871.62 2.84 0.0382 Error 19 79517.88 4185.152
Corrected Total 25 150747.6 Root MSE 64.69275 R‐Square 0.47251
Dependent Mean 36.16519 Adj R‐Sq 0.30593 Coeff Var 178.88125
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 564.9602 193.1292 2.93 0.0087
RHDKR 1 0.003186 0.010399 0.31 0.7626 RR 1 ‐6.79734 3.046732 ‐2.23 0.0379
RHKHA 1 ‐0.00008 0.000057 ‐1.46 0.1614 RHEMSW 1 ‐7.43E‐6 0.000020 ‐0.38 0.7091
RHEKR 1 4.76E‐6 3.557E‐6 1.34 0.1967 LATKR 1 ‐0.15620 0.058559 ‐2.67 0.0152
Durbin‐Watson 2.148629 Number of Observations 26
First‐Order Autocorrelation ‐0.11068
174
Lampiran 3. Lanjutan
The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model QKR Dependent Variable QKR
Label QKR Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 5 6465169 1293034 18546.4 .0001 Error 20 1394.380 69.71899
Corrected Total 25 6466564 Root MSE 8.34979 R‐Square 0.99978
Dependent Mean 1602.89631 Adj R‐Sq 0.99973 Coeff Var 0.52092
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 ‐1193.11 37.81030 ‐31.56 .0001
RHDKR 1 0.001453 0.001356 1.07 0.2966 RR 1 ‐0.54461 0.372185 ‐1.46 0.1589
PRODKR 1 3047.342 64.60167 47.17 .0001 ATKR 1 0.350690 0.012196 28.75 .0001
LQKR 1 0.101694 0.020668 4.92 .0001 Durbin‐Watson 1.393567
Number of Observations 26 First‐Order Autocorrelation 0.29248
175
Lampiran 3. Lanjutan
The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model DDKR Dependent Variable DDKR
Label DDKR Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 4 220230.7 55057.68 12.84 .0001 Error 21 90018.65 4286.603
Corrected Total 25 310249.4 Root MSE 65.47215 R‐Square 0.70985
Dependent Mean 161.58819 Adj R‐Sq 0.65458 Coeff Var 40.51791
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 105.5490 72.63240 1.45 0.1610
RHDKR 1 ‐0.00910 0.010847 ‐0.84 0.4111 LRR 1 ‐5.18891 2.820674 ‐1.84 0.0800
EGROWTH 1 0.000370 0.000262 1.41 0.1728 LDDKR 1 0.798310 0.162361 4.92 .0001
Durbin‐Watson 2.324106 Number of Observations 26
First‐Order Autocorrelation ‐0.23458
176
Lampiran 3. Lanjutan
The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model QXKR Dependent Variable QXKR
Label QXKR Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 4 4216424 1054106 87.72 .0001 Error 21 252337.5 12016.07
Corrected Total 25 4468762 Root MSE 109.61784 R‐Square 0.94353
Dependent Mean 1441.30812 Adj R‐Sq 0.93278 Coeff Var 7.60544
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 102.2860 114.5276 0.89 0.3819
LRHEKR 1 2.688E‐6 3.212E‐6 0.84 0.4120 L2RHDKR 1 ‐0.00872 0.016459 ‐0.53 0.6020
LUSGDP 1 0.013080 0.007101 1.84 0.0796 LQXKR 1 0.720029 0.168488 4.27 0.0003
Durbin‐Watson 1.334647 Number of Observations 26
First‐Order Autocorrelation 0.282351
177
Lampiran 3. Lanjutan
The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model RHDKR Dependent Variable RHDKR
Label Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 4 9753260 2438315 1.46 0.2501 Error 21 35100421 1671449
Corrected Total 25 44853681 Root MSE 1292.84516 R‐Square 0.21745
Dependent Mean 7255.06265 Adj R‐Sq 0.06839 Coeff Var 17.81990
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 4314.834 1394.392 3.09 0.0055
PRHEKR 1 0.000073 0.000052 1.41 0.1729 QXKR 1 3.696375 4.773756 0.77 0.4474
QKR 1 ‐2.37874 3.876247 ‐0.61 0.5460 LRHDKR 1 0.196950 0.200018 0.98 0.3360
Durbin‐Watson 1.991743 Number of Observations 26
First‐Order Autocorrelation 0.003387
178
Lampiran 3. Lanjutan
The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model TDFPD Dependent Variable TDFPD
Label TDFPD Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 8 1614942 201867.7 1.89 0.1294 Error 17 1820519 107089.3
Corrected Total 25 3435461 Root MSE 327.24508 R‐Square 0.47008
Dependent Mean 171.33942 Adj R‐Sq 0.22071 Coeff Var 190.99228
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 ‐9198.99 4421.778 ‐2.08 0.0529
RHGKG 1 0.174284 0.207334 0.84 0.4122 RHPP 1 0.601135 0.629978 0.95 0.3533
RR 1 ‐23.3406 15.09199 ‐1.55 0.1404 RHBBM 1 ‐0.29953 0.208340 ‐1.44 0.1687
RHKHA 1 ‐0.00089 0.000462 ‐1.92 0.0713 RHKHTI 1 4.219849 2.283638 1.85 0.0821
POP 1 63.54466 21.98855 2.89 0.0102 LATPD 1 ‐0.40994 0.175085 ‐2.34 0.0317
Durbin‐Watson 2.478531 Number of Observations 26
First‐Order Autocorrelation ‐0.25845
179
Lampiran 3. Lanjutan
The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model QGKG Dependent Variable QGKG
Label QGKG Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 5 9.2887E8 1.8577E8 91.77 .0001 Error 20 40488240 2024412
Corrected Total 25 9.6936E8 Root MSE 1422.81832 R‐Square 0.95823
Dependent Mean 47989.8984 Adj R‐Sq 0.94779 Coeff Var 2.96483
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 ‐16166.6 10033.07 ‐1.61 0.1228
RHGKG 1 0.351790 0.849424 0.41 0.6832 RR 1 ‐55.8235 60.40343 ‐0.92 0.3664
RHBBM 1 ‐0.44924 0.857686 ‐0.52 0.6062 PRODPD 1 4504.244 2416.344 1.86 0.0771
LQGKG 1 0.942387 0.067185 14.03 .0001 Durbin‐Watson 2.403813
Number of Observations 26 First‐Order Autocorrelation ‐0.21291
180
Lampiran 3. Lanjutan
The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model DGKG Dependent Variable DGKG
Label DGKG Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 6 9.3519E8 1.5587E8 86.67 .0001 Error 19 34168492 1798342
Corrected Total 25 9.6936E8 Root MSE 1341.02263 R‐Square 0.96475
Dependent Mean 47989.8984 Adj R‐Sq 0.95362 Coeff Var 2.79439
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 15550.00 6964.717 2.23 0.0378
LRHPP 1 ‐1.78842 2.358771 ‐0.76 0.4576 RR 1 ‐27.4545 56.96717 ‐0.48 0.6354
RHBBM 1 ‐0.85523 0.856707 ‐1.00 0.3307 RHDBR 1 0.968472 1.024794 0.95 0.3565
RY 1 0.006241 0.002750 2.27 0.0351 LDGKG 1 0.552955 0.176764 3.13 0.0055
Durbin‐Watson 1.966136 Number of Observations 26
First‐Order Autocorrelation ‐0.0409
181
Lampiran 3. Lanjutan
The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model RHGKG Dependent Variable RHGKG
Label Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 3 3044215 1014738 9.78 0.0003 Error 22 2282598 103754.4
Corrected Total 25 5326813 Root MSE 322.10937 R‐Square 0.57149
Dependent Mean 1342.98301 Adj R‐Sq 0.51306 Coeff Var 23.98462
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 1439.380 752.5141 1.91 0.0689
PRHPP 1 0.219112 0.455779 0.48 0.6354 QGKG 1 ‐0.01812 0.012543 ‐1.44 0.1627
LRHGKG 1 0.564356 0.163599 3.45 0.0023 Durbin‐Watson 1.471632
Number of Observations 26 First‐Order Autocorrelation 0.254676
182
Lampiran 3. Lanjutan
The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model TDGHPH Dependent Variable TDGHPH
Label TDGHPH Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 7 2.2432E8 32045725 4.21 0.0065 Error 18 1.3695E8 7608610
Corrected Total 25 3.6128E8 Root MSE 2758.37093 R‐Square 0.62091
Dependent Mean ‐1018.1538 Adj R‐Sq 0.47349 Coeff Var ‐270.91887
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 18545.02 6923.911 2.68 0.0153
RHEKL 1 0.003265 0.000915 3.57 0.0022 RHKHA 1 ‐0.01044 0.004276 ‐2.44 0.0252
RR 1 ‐462.195 136.9469 ‐3.37 0.0034 L2QILL 1 ‐0.48485 0.186867 ‐2.59 0.0183
LRHEMSW 1 ‐0.00211 0.000643 ‐3.29 0.0041 KPIHPH 1 ‐506.236 1948.073 ‐0.26 0.7979
LAHPH 1 ‐0.16942 0.119323 ‐1.42 0.1728 Durbin‐Watson 2.006376
Number of Observations 26 First‐Order Autocorrelation ‐0.09452
183
Lampiran 3. Lanjutan
The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model QILL Dependent Variable QILL
Label QILL Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 7 3.0452E8 43502769 10.23 .0001 Error 18 76535160 4251953
Corrected Total 25 3.8105E8 Root MSE 2062.02652 R‐Square 0.79915
Dependent Mean 10540.1125 Adj R‐Sq 0.72104 Coeff Var 19.56361
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 3450.205 4001.590 0.86 0.3999
RHKHA 1 0.000506 0.001996 0.25 0.8028 RR 1 ‐152.881 91.51140 ‐1.67 0.1121
RHBBM 1 ‐3.01272 1.534406 ‐1.96 0.0652 RDR 1 ‐0.02144 0.010638 ‐2.02 0.0590
PRODHA 1 408.9038 159.4463 2.56 0.0195 PKUM 1 411.1423 2215.215 0.19 0.8548
LQILL 1 0.459784 0.142001 3.24 0.0046 Durbin‐Watson 1.583423
Number of Observations 26 First‐Order Autocorrelation 0.186333
184
Lampiran 3. Lanjutan
The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model QKBHA Dependent Variable QKBHA
Label QKBHA Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 6 2.075E9 3.4583E8 69.31 .0001 Error 19 94800826 4989517
Corrected Total 25 2.1698E9 Root MSE 2233.72271 R‐Square 0.95631
Dependent Mean 15355.5772 Adj R‐Sq 0.94251 Coeff Var 14.54665
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 ‐5429.13 7336.647 ‐0.74 0.4683
LRHKHA 1 0.001499 0.003024 0.50 0.6258 LRR 1 ‐196.699 104.7373 ‐1.88 0.0758
RPSDH 1 ‐0.58191 0.126943 ‐4.58 0.0002 PRODHA 1 800.2421 188.2378 4.25 0.0004
AHPH 1 0.280795 0.121106 2.32 0.0317 LQKBHA 1 0.351669 0.150212 2.34 0.0303
Durbin‐Watson 1.645031 Number of Observations 26
First‐Order Autocorrelation 0.176983
185
Lampiran 3. Lanjutan
The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model DKBKG Dependent Variable DKBKG
Label DKBKG Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 6 1.2355E9 2.0591E8 41.63 .0001 Error 19 93986195 4946642
Corrected Total 25 1.3295E9 Root MSE 2224.10473 R‐Square 0.92930
Dependent Mean 9965.32410 Adj R‐Sq 0.90698 Coeff Var 22.31844
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 ‐2234.08 6728.256 ‐0.33 0.7435
RHKHA 1 ‐0.00186 0.002824 ‐0.66 0.5172 RHKHTI 1 16.06287 10.42745 1.54 0.1399
RR 1 ‐208.443 97.54792 ‐2.14 0.0458 RW 1 ‐0.00085 0.004281 ‐0.20 0.8444
RY 1 0.000963 0.003307 0.29 0.7741 LDKBKG 1 0.744575 0.186695 3.99 0.0008
Durbin‐Watson 2.018001 Number of Observations 26
First‐Order Autocorrelation ‐0.06749
186
Lampiran 3. Lanjutan
The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model DKBKL Dependent Variable DKBKL
Label DKBKL Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 7 6.4086E8 91551983 74.39 .0001 Error 18 22152102 1230672
Corrected Total 25 6.6302E8 Root MSE 1109.35671 R‐Square 0.96659
Dependent Mean 15658.7026 Adj R‐Sq 0.95360 Coeff Var 7.08460
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 1246.330 2304.044 0.54 0.5952
RHKHA 1 ‐0.00333 0.001588 ‐2.10 0.0503 RHKHTI 1 4.793018 3.437488 1.39 0.1802
LRR 1 ‐30.6317 55.55324 ‐0.55 0.5881 RW 1 ‐0.00315 0.002623 ‐1.20 0.2455
RHEKL 1 0.000613 0.000432 1.42 0.1729 EGROWTH 1 0.010330 0.004766 2.17 0.0439
LDKBKL 1 0.911707 0.098259 9.28 .0001 Durbin‐Watson 2.871075
Number of Observations 26 First‐Order Autocorrelation ‐0.43969
187
Lampiran 3. Lanjutan
The SYSLIN Procedure Two‐Stage Least Squares Estimation
Model RHKHA Dependent Variable RHKHA
Label Analysis of Variance
Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F
Model 3 2.537E12 8.455E11 52.21 .0001 Error 22 3.562E11 1.619E10
Corrected Total 25 2.893E12 Root MSE 127252.432 R‐Square 0.87685
Dependent Mean 715581.100 Adj R‐Sq 0.86006 Coeff Var 17.78309
Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard
Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Intercept 1 305432.0 168867.6 1.81 0.0842
RHEKL 1 0.130992 0.030631 4.28 0.0003 QL 1 ‐15.6081 4.590326 ‐3.40 0.0026
LRHKHA 1 0.555619 0.125418 4.43 0.0002 Durbin‐Watson 1.833888
Number of Observations 26 First‐Order Autocorrelation 0.071401
189
Lampiran 4. Hasil Pendugaan Model Ekonomi Deforestasi dan Degradasi Hutan Alam Menggunakan Metode 2SLS dan AR1, Software EViews
versi 6
Dependent Variable: RC Method: Two-Stage Least Squares
Date: 022812 Time: 01:26 Sample: 1983 2008
Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 12 iterations
Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR
ATKR RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB
Lagged dependent variable regressors
added to instrument list Variable
Coefficient Std. Error
t-Statistic Prob.
C -56417.51 61107.14
-0.923256 0.3659
RYD 0.750511 0.052134
14.39593 0.0000
RR -1421.586 1392.704
-1.020737 0.3185
AR1 0.530577 0.204816
2.590507 0.0167
R-squared 0.980819 Mean dependent var
742738.1 Adjusted R-squared
0.978203 S.D. dependent var 301187.2
S.E. of regression 44466.70 Sum squared resid
4.35E+10 F-statistic
374.9822 Durbin-Watson stat 1.784833
ProbF-statistic 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR
4.35E+10 Inverted AR Roots
.53
190
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
Dependent Variable: RPPJK Method: Two-Stage Least Squares
Date: 022812 Time: 01:34 Sample: 1983 2008
Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 18 iterations
Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR
ATKR RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB
Lagged dependent variable regressors
added to instrument list Variable
Coefficient Std. Error
t-Statistic Prob.
C -58992.19 23359.39
-2.525417 0.0197
RY 0.153017 0.029391
5.206330 0.0000
RR -156.8430 249.8787
-0.627677 0.5370
RPPJK-1 0.039132 0.178372
0.219386 0.8285
AR1 0.790514 0.156965
5.036250 0.0001
R-squared 0.989158 Mean dependent var
129889.8 Adjusted R-squared
0.987092 S.D. dependent var 66352.70
S.E. of regression 7538.419 Sum squared resid
1.19E+09 F-statistic
478.9633 Durbin-Watson stat 1.860860
ProbF-statistic 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR
1.19E+09 Inverted AR Roots
.79
191
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
Dependent Variable: RG Method: Two-Stage Least Squares
Date: 022812 Time: 01:37 Sample: 1983 2008
Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 8 iterations
Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR
RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB
Lagged dependent variable regressors
added to instrument list Variable
Coefficient Std. Error
t-Statistic Prob.
C 10154.85 10280.38
0.987789 0.3345
RPPJK 0.424375 0.118110
3.593056 0.0017
OILP 127.4504 61.08260
2.086526 0.0493
RG-1 0.265881 0.236871
1.122474 0.2743
AR1 0.377229 0.214909
1.755297 0.0938
R-squared 0.963854 Mean dependent var
98171.33 Adjusted R-squared
0.956969 S.D. dependent var 32782.52
S.E. of regression 6800.408 Sum squared resid
9.71E+08 F-statistic
139.9929 Durbin-Watson stat 1.879237
ProbF-statistic 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR
9.71E+08 Inverted AR Roots
.38
192
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
Dependent Variable: RI Method: Two-Stage Least Squares
Date: 022812 Time: 01:39 Sample: 1983 2008
Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 16 iterations
Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR
RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB
Lagged dependent variable regressors
added to instrument list Variable
Coefficient Std. Error
t-Statistic Prob.
C 8822.436 158018.0
0.055832 0.9560
RR-1 2202.201 2472.776
0.890578 0.3837
RY 0.297151 0.139217
2.134454 0.0454
KRISIS -185378.4 67147.78
-2.760752 0.0121
RI-1 -0.080172 0.250542
-0.319993 0.7523
AR1 0.704682 0.220303
3.198698 0.0045
R-squared 0.762951 Mean dependent var
321678.7 Adjusted R-squared
0.703689 S.D. dependent var 134460.3
S.E. of regression 73192.71 Sum squared resid
1.07E+11 F-statistic
12.87417 Durbin-Watson stat 1.866472
ProbF-statistic 0.000011 Second-Stage SSR
1.07E+11 Inverted AR Roots
.70
193
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
Dependent Variable: RNX Method: Two-Stage Least Squares
Date: 022812 Time: 01:41 Sample: 1983 2008
Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 20 iterations
Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR
RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB
Lagged dependent variable regressors
added to instrument list Variable
Coefficient Std. Error
t-Statistic Prob.
C 170114.6 62445.35
2.724216 0.0131
REXR 13.56636 3.843080
3.530075 0.0021
RY -0.177489 0.056799
-3.124839 0.0053
OILP -311.6503 226.5882
-1.375404 0.1842
RNX-1 0.069802 0.274017
0.254734 0.8015
AR1 -0.134133 0.334634
-0.400834 0.6928
R-squared 0.585477 Mean dependent var
33850.78 Adjusted R-squared
0.481847 S.D. dependent var 74840.23
S.E. of regression 53872.14 Sum squared resid
5.80E+10 F-statistic
5.649654 Durbin-Watson stat 2.037577
ProbF-statistic 0.002093 Second-Stage SSR
5.80E+10 Inverted AR Roots
-.13
194
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
Dependent Variable: R Method: Two-Stage Least Squares
Date: 022812 Time: 01:43 Sample: 1983 2008
Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 19 iterations
Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR
RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB
Lagged dependent variable regressors
added to instrument list Variable
Coefficient Std. Error
t-Statistic Prob.
C 12.01211 4.639409
2.589147 0.0185
RMS-1 -1.67E-05 1.27E-05
-1.318049 0.2040
IHK-IHK-1 1.357908 0.199437
6.808720 0.0000
EXPINF 0.206645 0.109854
1.881090 0.0762
KRISIS 10.88883 5.533044
1.967964 0.0647
FER -11.67211 6.478519
-1.801664 0.0884
R-1 0.112403 0.152622
0.736479 0.4709
AR1 0.215784 0.336409
0.641436 0.5293
R-squared 0.793854 Mean dependent var
14.19077 Adjusted R-squared
0.713686 S.D. dependent var 11.08924
S.E. of regression 5.933662 Sum squared resid
633.7503 F-statistic
9.902404 Durbin-Watson stat 1.698624
ProbF-statistic 0.000046 Second-Stage SSR
633.7503 Inverted AR Roots
.22
195
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
Dependent Variable: IHK Method: Two-Stage Least Squares
Date: 022812 Time: 01:45 Sample: 1983 2008
Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 8 iterations
Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR
RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB
Lagged dependent variable regressors
added to instrument list Variable
Coefficient Std. Error
t-Statistic Prob.
C -10.80683 5.429008
-1.990572 0.0591
RY-1 1.82E-05 7.92E-06
2.302910 0.0311
IHK-1 0.963797 0.060507
15.92877 0.0000
AR1 -0.226708 0.229715
-0.986912 0.3344
R-squared 0.988667 Mean dependent var
75.20577 Adjusted R-squared
0.987121 S.D. dependent var 60.23762
S.E. of regression 6.836047 Sum squared resid
1028.094 F-statistic
639.7262 Durbin-Watson stat 2.011119
ProbF-statistic 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR
1028.094 Inverted AR Roots
-.23
196
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
Dependent Variable: EXR Method: Two-Stage Least Squares
Date: 022812 Time: 01:47 Sample: 1983 2008
Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 28 iterations
Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR
RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB
Lagged dependent variable regressors
added to instrument list Variable
Coefficient Std. Error
t-Statistic Prob.
C 274.6091 813.8032
0.337439 0.7395
RR-RFRATE -84.16786 63.08017
-1.334300 0.1979
RNX-1 -0.009667 0.006165
-1.567860 0.1334
RMS 0.001464 0.002743
0.533609 0.5998
KRISIS 1732.817 1055.807
1.641225 0.1172
EXR-1 0.916711 0.165690
5.532698 0.0000
AR1 0.056605 0.268634
0.210713 0.8354
R-squared 0.936053 Mean dependent var
6622.659 Adjusted R-squared
0.915859 S.D. dependent var 4944.015
S.E. of regression 1434.110 Sum squared resid
39076756 F-statistic
46.35366 Durbin-Watson stat 1.979702
ProbF-statistic 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR
39076756 Inverted AR Roots
.06
197
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
Dependent Variable: EMP Method: Two-Stage Least Squares
Date: 022812 Time: 02:09 Sample: 1983 2008
Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 9 iterations
Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR
RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB
Lagged dependent variable regressors
added to instrument list Variable
Coefficient Std. Error
t-Statistic Prob.
C 9.568721 3.221160
2.970583 0.0073
RW-1 -4.02E-07 1.40E-06
-0.286667 0.7772
RY 3.66E-06 1.90E-06
1.929315 0.0673
EMP-1 0.850661 0.066754
12.74316 0.0000
AR1 -0.428011 0.201156
-2.127757 0.0454
R-squared 0.984535 Mean dependent var
82.26000 Adjusted R-squared
0.981589 S.D. dependent var 11.90665
S.E. of regression 1.615578 Sum squared resid
54.81191 F-statistic
334.2220 Durbin-Watson stat 2.026748
ProbF-statistic 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR
54.81191 Inverted AR Roots
-.43
198
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
Dependent Variable: TDFHTI Method: Two-Stage Least Squares
Date: 022812 Time: 02:12 Sample: 1983 2008
Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 32 iterations
Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR
RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB
Lagged dependent variable regressors
added to instrument list Variable
Coefficient Std. Error
t-Statistic Prob.
C 6035.801 2288.134
2.637871 0.0195
RHEPU-2 0.000108 6.48E-05
1.664284 0.1183
RHKHTI -5.316059 2.915920
-1.823116 0.0897
RR-RR-2 -20.06286 11.54696
-1.737502 0.1042
RW -0.004089 0.001328
-3.079988 0.0081
RHBBM -0.779607 0.206367
-3.777760 0.0020
RHEKR 0.000131 2.44E-05
5.381578 0.0001
RHEMSW -0.000199 0.000116
-1.714179 0.1085
RHEKL -0.000330 9.07E-05
-3.640916 0.0027
PPHTI 1238.447 335.5274
3.691045 0.0024
AHTI-1 -0.534241 0.229503
-2.327815 0.0354
AR1 -0.503551 0.293967
-1.712952 0.1088
R-squared 0.835489 Mean dependent var
275.0077 Adjusted R-squared
0.706231 S.D. dependent var 490.4583
S.E. of regression 265.8307 Sum squared resid
989323.6 F-statistic
6.463713 Durbin-Watson stat 2.246241
ProbF-statistic 0.000844 Second-Stage SSR
989323.6 Inverted AR Roots
-.50
199
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
Dependent Variable: QKHTI Method: Two-Stage Least Squares
Date: 022812 Time: 02:14 Sample: 1983 2008
Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 10 iterations
Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR
RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB
Lagged dependent variable regressors
added to instrument list Variable
Coefficient Std. Error
t-Statistic Prob.
C -6382.717 2342.127
-2.725180 0.0134
RHKHTI 12.86902 4.691243
2.743200 0.0129
RR -71.08063 59.54558
-1.193718 0.2473
PRODHTI 3093.163 591.9722
5.225184 0.0000
AHTI 0.835182 0.315076
2.650729 0.0158
QKHTI-1 0.543789 0.096619
5.628171 0.0000
AR1 -0.124159 0.250529
-0.495587 0.6259
R-squared 0.973782 Mean dependent var
4079.508 Adjusted R-squared
0.965503 S.D. dependent var 7167.177
S.E. of regression 1331.184 Sum squared resid
33668950 F-statistic
117.6172 Durbin-Watson stat 2.056199
ProbF-statistic 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR
33668950 Inverted AR Roots
-.12
200
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
Dependent Variable: DKHTI Method: Two-Stage Least Squares
Date: 022812 Time: 02:17 Sample: 1983 2008
Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 10 iterations
Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR
RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB
Lagged dependent variable regressors
added to instrument list Variable
Coefficient Std. Error
t-Statistic Prob.
C 3608.361 2160.288
1.670315 0.1122
RHKHTI -2.351334 3.807461
-0.617560 0.5446
RR -274.5783 101.2935
-2.710721 0.0143
RW -0.004144 0.002681
-1.545602 0.1396
RHEPU-RHEPU-1 0.000490 0.000306
1.602454 0.1265
RY-RY-1 0.025650 0.009848
2.604534 0.0179
DKHTI-1 0.819310 0.126179
6.493244 0.0000
AR1 0.058621 0.274227
0.213767 0.8331
R-squared 0.949656 Mean dependent var
4079.508 Adjusted R-squared
0.930078 S.D. dependent var 7167.177
S.E. of regression 1895.205 Sum squared resid
64652421 F-statistic
48.50563 Durbin-Watson stat 1.890613
ProbF-statistic 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR
64652421 Inverted AR Roots
.06
201
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
Dependent Variable: RHKHTI Method: Two-Stage Least Squares
Date: 022812 Time: 05:27 Sample: 1983 2008
Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 17 iterations
Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR
RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB
Lagged dependent variable regressors
added to instrument list Variable
Coefficient Std. Error
t-Statistic Prob.
C 18.82905 59.26048
0.317734 0.7540
RHEPU-RHEPU-1 7.96E-06 4.57E-06
1.743051 0.0967
RHKHA -1.28E-05 3.63E-05
-0.351637 0.7288
QKHTI-1 -0.000813 0.001594
-0.510192 0.6155
RHKHTI-1 0.936296 0.099634
9.397306 0.0000
AR1 0.149277 0.251066
0.594572 0.5588
R-squared 0.968453 Mean dependent var
350.8008 Adjusted R-squared
0.960566 S.D. dependent var 155.2908
S.E. of regression 30.83768 Sum squared resid
19019.25 F-statistic
122.7937 Durbin-Watson stat 2.089928
ProbF-statistic 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR
19019.25 Inverted AR Roots
.15
202
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
Dependent Variable: TDFSW Method: Two-Stage Least Squares
Date: 022812 Time: 05:32 Sample adjusted: 1984 2007
Included observations: 24 after adjustments Convergence achieved after 18 iterations
Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR
RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB
Lagged dependent variable regressors
added to instrument list Variable
Coefficient Std. Error
t-Statistic Prob.
C 1299.323 558.4231
2.326772 0.0344
RHEMSW 6.37E-05 4.29E-05
1.486270 0.1579
RHBSW -0.666299 0.700386
-0.951330 0.3565
RR-3 -14.66318 7.547488
-1.942789 0.0711
RW -0.000409 0.000185
-2.217470 0.0425
RHKHTI1 -2.153504 0.715569
-3.009497 0.0088
RHKHA-1 0.000781 0.000183
4.267935 0.0007
ATSW-1 -0.231339 0.055282
-4.184733 0.0008
AR1 -0.615164 0.316925
-1.941040 0.0713
R-squared 0.782473 Mean dependent var
265.0504 Adjusted R-squared
0.666458 S.D. dependent var 255.2989
S.E. of regression 147.4430 Sum squared resid
326091.4 F-statistic
6.744615 Durbin-Watson stat 2.383251
ProbF-statistic 0.000803 Second-Stage SSR
326091.4 Inverted AR Roots
-.62
203
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
Dependent Variable: QBSW Method: Two-Stage Least Squares
Date: 022812 Time: 05:34 Sample: 1983 2008
Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 9 iterations
Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR
RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB
Lagged dependent variable regressors
added to instrument list Variable
Coefficient Std. Error
t-Statistic Prob.
C -43932.25 5171.539
-8.495004 0.0000
RHBSW-1 0.046127 4.875256
0.009462 0.9925
RR -4.367065 56.90550
-0.076742 0.9396
PRODSW 4507.706 493.6166
9.131999 0.0000
ATSW 9.768781 0.729057
13.39920 0.0000
QBSW-1 0.031462 0.073341
0.428985 0.6728
AR1 0.437517 0.128930
3.393446 0.0030
R-squared 0.996505 Mean dependent var
28600.53 Adjusted R-squared
0.995401 S.D. dependent var 23829.96
S.E. of regression 1615.982 Sum squared resid
49616552 F-statistic
902.9044 Durbin-Watson stat 2.031650
ProbF-statistic 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR
49616552 Inverted AR Roots
.44
204
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
Dependent Variable: DBSW Method: Two-Stage Least Squares
Date: 022812 Time: 05:36 Sample: 1983 2008
Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 29 iterations
Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR
RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB
Lagged dependent variable regressors
added to instrument list Variable
Coefficient Std. Error
t-Statistic Prob.
C -2244.330 10964.29
-0.204694 0.8401
RHBSW -23.33792 12.47764
-1.870379 0.0778
RR -290.5991 201.2895
-1.443688 0.1660
RW -0.010632 0.006789
-1.566146 0.1347
RHDMSW 1.368128 2.667994
0.512793 0.6143
RY 0.022296 0.012563
1.774734 0.0929
DBSW-1 0.656246 0.238436
2.752291 0.0131
AR1 -0.210059 0.320113
-0.656204 0.5200
R-squared 0.979334 Mean dependent var
28600.53 Adjusted R-squared
0.971298 S.D. dependent var 23829.96
S.E. of regression 4037.202 Sum squared resid
2.93E+08 F-statistic
121.8592 Durbin-Watson stat 2.120663
ProbF-statistic 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR
2.93E+08 Inverted AR Roots
-.21
205
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
Dependent Variable: RHBSW Method: Two-Stage Least Squares
Date: 022812 Time: 05:37 Sample: 1983 2008
Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 23 iterations
Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR
RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB
Lagged dependent variable regressors
added to instrument list Variable
Coefficient Std. Error
t-Statistic Prob.
C 81.57648 61.58372
1.324644 0.1995
RHEMSW 4.08E-05 1.30E-05
3.145477 0.0049
DBSW 0.001926 0.000748
2.575201 0.0176
RHBSW-1 0.117844 0.282326
0.417403 0.6806
AR1 -0.064020 0.439155
-0.145780 0.8855
R-squared 0.615039 Mean dependent var
329.5466 Adjusted R-squared
0.541713 S.D. dependent var 85.08261
S.E. of regression 57.59829 Sum squared resid
69668.82 F-statistic
8.387742 Durbin-Watson stat 1.918460
ProbF-statistic 0.000331 Second-Stage SSR
69668.82 Inverted AR Roots
-.06
206
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
Dependent Variable: TDFKR Method: Two-Stage Least Squares
Date: 022812 Time: 05:41 Sample: 1983 2008
Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 60 iterations
Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR
RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB
Lagged dependent variable regressors
added to instrument list Variable
Coefficient Std. Error
t-Statistic Prob.
C 606.9898 174.9765
3.468978 0.0027
RHDKR 0.001071 0.010725
0.099897 0.9215
RR -8.231884 3.309290
-2.487508 0.0229
RHKHA -9.19E-05 5.59E-05
-1.643807 0.1176
RHEMSW -1.15E-05 1.98E-05
-0.578399 0.5702
RHEKR 6.06E-06 3.47E-06
1.745424 0.0980
ATKR-1 -0.161324 0.055527
-2.905301 0.0094
AR1 -0.156100 0.268186
-0.582058 0.5677
R-squared 0.477290 Mean dependent var
36.16577 Adjusted R-squared
0.274014 S.D. dependent var 77.65276
S.E. of regression 66.16388 Sum squared resid
78797.87 F-statistic
2.347990 Durbin-Watson stat 2.084057
ProbF-statistic 0.068486 Second-Stage SSR
78797.87 Inverted AR Roots
-.16
207
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
Dependent Variable: QKR Method: Two-Stage Least Squares
Date: 022812 Time: 05:42 Sample: 1983 2008
Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 15 iterations
Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR
RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB
Lagged dependent variable regressors
added to instrument list Variable
Coefficient Std. Error
t-Statistic Prob.
C -1304.793 83.00897
-15.71870 0.0000
RHDKR 0.002636 0.001899
1.387992 0.1812
RR -0.774980 0.394506
-1.964431 0.0643
PRODKR 3139.847 96.83679
32.42411 0.0000
ATKR 0.380739 0.025667
14.83394 0.0000
QKR-1 0.074069 0.029389
2.520243 0.0208
AR1 0.464264 0.183051
2.536254 0.0201
R-squared 0.999649 Mean dependent var
1602.897 Adjusted R-squared
0.999538 S.D. dependent var 508.5886
S.E. of regression 10.93267 Sum squared resid
2270.943 F-statistic
9013.983 Durbin-Watson stat 2.110848
ProbF-statistic 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR
2270.943 Inverted AR Roots
.46
208
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
Dependent Variable: DDKR Method: Two-Stage Least Squares
Date: 022812 Time: 05:44 Sample: 1983 2008
Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 8 iterations
Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR
RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB
Lagged dependent variable regressors
added to instrument list Variable
Coefficient Std. Error
t-Statistic Prob.
C 106.6144 64.11936
1.662749 0.1120
RHDKR -0.010171 0.009810
-1.036825 0.3122
RR-1 -5.828949 2.845871
-2.048213 0.0539
RY-RY-1 0.000375 0.000239
1.565200 0.1332
DDKR-1 0.846774 0.148328
5.708803 0.0000
AR1 -0.279024 0.232825
-1.198429 0.2448
R-squared 0.728291 Mean dependent var
161.5892 Adjusted R-squared
0.660364 S.D. dependent var 111.3989
S.E. of regression 64.92138 Sum squared resid
84295.72 F-statistic
10.72165 Durbin-Watson stat 2.000582
ProbF-statistic 0.000041 Second-Stage SSR
84295.72 Inverted AR Roots
-.28
209
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
Dependent Variable: QXKR Method: Two-Stage Least Squares
Date: 022812 Time: 05:46 Sample: 1983 2008
Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 39 iterations
Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR
RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB
Lagged dependent variable regressors
added to instrument list Variable
Coefficient Std. Error
t-Statistic Prob.
C 2.446200 476.0310
0.005139 0.9960
RHEKR-1 1.29E-05 3.08E-06
4.195720 0.0004
RHDKR-2 -0.015124 0.010250
-1.475592 0.1556
USGDP-1 0.043708 0.016977
2.574473 0.0181
QXKR-1 0.082290 0.195526
0.420865 0.6783
AR1 0.868631 0.123550
7.030623 0.0000
R-squared 0.970708 Mean dependent var
1441.308 Adjusted R-squared
0.963385 S.D. dependent var 422.7885
S.E. of regression 80.90096 Sum squared resid
130899.3 F-statistic
132.5554 Durbin-Watson stat 1.572986
ProbF-statistic 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR
130899.3 Inverted AR Roots
.87
210
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
Dependent Variable: RHDKR Method: Two-Stage Least Squares
Date: 022812 Time: 05:48 Sample: 1983 2008
Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 27 iterations
Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR
RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB
Lagged dependent variable regressors
added to instrument list Variable
Coefficient Std. Error
t-Statistic Prob.
C 4283.563 3456.421
1.239306 0.2296
RHEKR-RHEKR-1 7.43E-05 5.34E-05
1.391605 0.1793
QXKR 3.674619 5.096489
0.721010 0.4792
QKR -2.365590 4.026008
-0.587577 0.5634
RHDKR-1 0.202657 0.609432
0.332534 0.7429
AR1 -0.009185 0.651133
-0.014106 0.9889
R-squared 0.217611 Mean dependent var
7254.963 Adjusted R-squared
0.022014 S.D. dependent var 1339.587
S.E. of regression 1324.760 Sum squared resid
35099807 F-statistic
1.112546 Durbin-Watson stat 1.988991
ProbF-statistic 0.385137 Second-Stage SSR
35099807 Inverted AR Roots
-.01
211
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
Dependent Variable: TDFPD Method: Two-Stage Least Squares
Date: 022812 Time: 05:50 Sample: 1983 2008
Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 13 iterations
Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR
RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB
Lagged dependent variable regressors
added to instrument list Variable
Coefficient Std. Error
t-Statistic Prob.
C -8932.920 3072.219
-2.907645 0.0103
RHGKG 0.348054 0.156104
2.229633 0.0404
RHPP 0.504327 0.494159
1.020578 0.3226
RR -29.88638 15.53437
-1.923888 0.0723
RHBBM -0.169423 0.177441
-0.954812 0.3539
RHKHA -0.000891 0.000356
-2.502891 0.0235
RHKHTI 3.954517 1.671473
2.365888 0.0309
POP 48.54795 18.25271
2.659767 0.0171
ATPD-1 -0.174962 0.157464
-1.111120 0.2829
AR1 -0.498162 0.243087
-2.049318 0.0572
R-squared 0.550498 Mean dependent var
171.3400 Adjusted R-squared
0.297653 S.D. dependent var 370.6999
S.E. of regression 310.6693 Sum squared resid
1544247. F-statistic
2.177214 Durbin-Watson stat 2.300249
ProbF-statistic 0.083660 Second-Stage SSR
1544247. Inverted AR Roots
-.50
212
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
Dependent Variable: QGKG Method: Two-Stage Least Squares
Date: 022812 Time: 05:52 Sample: 1983 2008
Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 16 iterations
Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR
RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB
Lagged dependent variable regressors
added to instrument list Variable
Coefficient Std. Error
t-Statistic Prob.
C -14873.69 9044.077
-1.644578 0.1165
RHGKG 0.512769 0.745601
0.687726 0.4999
RR -60.46110 65.85190
-0.918138 0.3701
RHBBM -0.299252 0.757509
-0.395047 0.6972
PRODPD 4011.904 2214.159
1.811931 0.0858
QGKG-1 0.953313 0.058288
16.35531 0.0000
AR1 -0.242427 0.230959
-1.049656 0.3070
R-squared 0.960461 Mean dependent var
47989.90 Adjusted R-squared
0.947975 S.D. dependent var 6226.908
S.E. of regression 1420.301 Sum squared resid
38327835 F-statistic
76.92236 Durbin-Watson stat 2.253956
ProbF-statistic 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR
38327835 Inverted AR Roots
-.24
213
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
Dependent Variable: DGKG Method: Two-Stage Least Squares
Date: 022812 Time: 05:54 Sample: 1983 2008
Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 70 iterations
Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR
RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB
Lagged dependent variable regressors
added to instrument list Variable
Coefficient Std. Error
t-Statistic Prob.
C 25891.97 11312.33
2.288827 0.0344
RHPP-1 -0.844636 2.481288
-0.340402 0.7375
RR -46.39643 50.89384
-0.911632 0.3740
RHBBM -2.003432 1.102557
-1.817078 0.0859
RHDBR 1.028758 1.257753
0.817933 0.4241
RY 0.010717 0.004429
2.419923 0.0263
DDGKG-1 0.226863 0.334167
0.678891 0.5058
AR1 0.388088 0.298548
1.299920 0.2100
R-squared 0.966830 Mean dependent var
47989.90 Adjusted R-squared
0.953930 S.D. dependent var 6226.908
S.E. of regression 1336.533 Sum squared resid
32153751 F-statistic
74.95107 Durbin-Watson stat 1.990582
ProbF-statistic 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR
32153751 Inverted AR Roots
.39
214
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
Dependent Variable: RHGKG Method: Two-Stage Least Squares
Date: 022812 Time: 05:55 Sample: 1983 2008
Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 28 iterations
Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR
RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB
Lagged dependent variable regressors
added to instrument list Variable
Coefficient Std. Error
t-Statistic Prob.
C 2081.029 3682.345
0.565137 0.5780
RHPP-RHPP-1 0.177328 0.394348
0.449674 0.6576
QGKG -0.026394 0.046887
-0.562924 0.5794
RHGKG-1 0.389236 1.055231
0.368863 0.7159
AR1 0.377112 1.179523
0.319716 0.7523
R-squared 0.611919 Mean dependent var
1342.950 Adjusted R-squared
0.537998 S.D. dependent var 461.5658
S.E. of regression 313.7295 Sum squared resid
2066951. F-statistic
8.278087 Durbin-Watson stat 1.739309
ProbF-statistic 0.000358 Second-Stage SSR
2066951. Inverted AR Roots
.38
215
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
Dependent Variable: TDGHPH Method: Two-Stage Least Squares
Date: 022812 Time: 05:59 Sample: 1983 2008
Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 17 iterations
Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR
RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB
Lagged dependent variable regressors
added to instrument list Variable
Coefficient Std. Error
t-Statistic Prob.
C 15298.41 8027.945
1.905644 0.0748
RHEKL 0.003540 0.000979
3.616929 0.0023
RHKHA -0.009923 0.004703
-2.109959 0.0510
RR -540.0948 157.1706
-3.436360 0.0034
QILL-2 -0.427461 0.203070
-2.104991 0.0514
RHEMSW-1 -0.001537 0.000986
-1.558850 0.1386
RHEKR-1 -0.000171 0.000175
-0.979889 0.3417
KPIHPH -1108.177 2115.817
-0.523758 0.6076
AHPH-1 -0.138803 0.134204
-1.034263 0.3164
AR1 0.034816 0.306848
0.113463 0.9111
R-squared 0.645071 Mean dependent var
-1018.154 Adjusted R-squared
0.445424 S.D. dependent var 3801.447
S.E. of regression 2830.933 Sum squared resid
1.28E+08 F-statistic
3.231051 Durbin-Watson stat 2.026929
ProbF-statistic 0.019734 Second-Stage SSR
1.28E+08 Inverted AR Roots
.03
216
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
Dependent Variable: QILL Method: Two-Stage Least Squares
Date: 022812 Time: 06:01 Sample: 1983 2008
Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 38 iterations
Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR
RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB
Lagged dependent variable regressors
added to instrument list Variable
Coefficient Std. Error
t-Statistic Prob.
C 3299.569 4913.800
0.671490 0.5109
RHKHA 0.000758 0.002169
0.349344 0.7311
RR -131.7598 84.83008
-1.553221 0.1388
RHBBM -2.981875 1.806944
-1.650231 0.1172
RDR -0.021166 0.012473
-1.696989 0.1079
PRODHA 435.8245 171.9413
2.534729 0.0214
PKUM 421.3484 2389.805
0.176311 0.8621
QILL-1 0.398807 0.237214
1.681208 0.1110
AR1 0.234658 0.380719
0.616354 0.5458
R-squared 0.807518 Mean dependent var
10540.11 Adjusted R-squared
0.716938 S.D. dependent var 3904.124
S.E. of regression 2077.133 Sum squared resid
73346170 F-statistic
8.914991 Durbin-Watson stat 1.707106
ProbF-statistic 0.000090 Second-Stage SSR
73346170 Inverted AR Roots
.23
217
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
Dependent Variable: QKBHA Method: Two-Stage Least Squares
Date: 022812 Time: 06:03 Sample: 1983 2008
Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 49 iterations
Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR
RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB
Lagged dependent variable regressors
added to instrument list Variable
Coefficient Std. Error
t-Statistic Prob.
C -10534.49 7707.395
-1.366804 0.1885
RHKHA-1 0.002809 0.003117
0.901131 0.3794
RR-1 -209.6630 92.18915
-2.274270 0.0354
RPSDH -0.494871 0.150529
-3.287547 0.0041
PRODHA 765.9956 195.8429
3.911276 0.0010
AHPH 0.368882 0.137387
2.684988 0.0151
QKBHA-1 0.276694 0.194788
1.420491 0.1726
AR1 0.338450 0.287735
1.176254 0.2548
R-squared 0.958741 Mean dependent var
15355.58 Adjusted R-squared
0.942695 S.D. dependent var 9316.146
S.E. of regression 2230.137 Sum squared resid
89523218 F-statistic
59.75200 Durbin-Watson stat 1.775243
ProbF-statistic 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR
89523218 Inverted AR Roots
.34
218
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
Dependent Variable: DKBKG Method: Two-Stage Least Squares
Date: 022812 Time: 06:06 Sample: 1983 2008
Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 17 iterations
Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR
RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB
Lagged dependent variable regressors
added to instrument list Variable
Coefficient Std. Error
t-Statistic Prob.
C -3460.369 6544.107
-0.528776 0.6038
RHKHA -0.002447 0.003871
-0.632122 0.5357
RHKHTI 16.68629 11.03084
1.512695 0.1487
RR -204.6940 120.0788
-1.704664 0.1065
RW -0.002848 0.004487
-0.634741 0.5340
RHEKL 0.000228 0.000782
0.291835 0.7739
RY 0.001973 0.003465
0.569461 0.5765
DKBKG-1 0.791207 0.220185
3.593372 0.0022
AR1 -0.201772 0.279062
-0.723037 0.4795
R-squared 0.931553 Mean dependent var
9965.324 Adjusted R-squared
0.899343 S.D. dependent var 7292.350
S.E. of regression 2313.608 Sum squared resid
90997295 F-statistic
28.92098 Durbin-Watson stat 1.924428
ProbF-statistic 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR
90997295 Inverted AR Roots
-.20
219
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
Dependent Variable: DKBKL Method: Two-Stage Least Squares
Date: 022812 Time: 06:07 Sample: 1983 2008
Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 11 iterations
Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR
RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB
Lagged dependent variable regressors
added to instrument list Variable
Coefficient Std. Error
t-Statistic Prob.
C 896.1906 1751.049
0.511802 0.6154
RHKHA -0.003400 0.001277
-2.663293 0.0164
RHKHTI 5.521699 2.660897
2.075127 0.0535
RR-1 -33.40403 51.26938
-0.651540 0.5234
RW -0.004355 0.001656
-2.629815 0.0176
RHEKL 0.000611 0.000364
1.680755 0.1111
RY-RY-1 0.011803 0.003620
3.260759 0.0046
DKBKL-1 0.955339 0.070152
13.61807 0.0000
AR1 -0.496897 0.213445
-2.327986 0.0325
R-squared 0.974294 Mean dependent var
15658.70 Adjusted R-squared
0.962197 S.D. dependent var 5149.819
S.E. of regression 1001.273 Sum squared resid
17043319 F-statistic
80.54134 Durbin-Watson stat 2.598196
ProbF-statistic 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR
17043319 Inverted AR Roots
-.50
220
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
Dependent Variable: RHKHA Method: Two-Stage Least Squares
Date: 022812 Time: 06:09 Sample: 1983 2008
Included observations: 26 Convergence achieved after 18 iterations
Instrument list: OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR
RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH RPSDH RDR QXKB
Lagged dependent variable regressors
added to instrument list Variable
Coefficient Std. Error
t-Statistic Prob.
C 309719.4 200654.1
1.543549 0.1376
RHEKL 0.129333 0.032326
4.000831 0.0006
QILL+QKBHA -15.45845 5.098633
-3.031881 0.0063
RHKHA-1 0.551386 0.152475
3.616246 0.0016
AR1 0.078756 0.254231
0.309783 0.7598
R-squared 0.877557 Mean dependent var
715576.6 Adjusted R-squared
0.854234 S.D. dependent var 340174.3
S.E. of regression 129876.0 Sum squared resid
3.54E+11 F-statistic
37.62707 Durbin-Watson stat 1.937746
ProbF-statistic 0.000000 Second-Stage SSR
3.54E+11 Inverted AR Roots
.08
221
Lampiran 5. Program Validasi Model Ekonomi Deforestasi dan Degradasi Hutan Alam Menggunakan Metode Newton, Prosedur SYSNLIN,
Software SAS versi 9.0
DATA OLAH;
SET AST.MIMA1;
“BLOK MAKROEKONOMI” RY=YDFLA
100 ;
LRY=LAGRY; PRY=RY-LRY;
RPPJK=PPJKDFLA
100 ;
LRPPJK=LAGRPPJK; RC=CDFLA
100 ;
RYD=RY-RPPJK; RG=GDFLA
100 ;
LRG=LAGRG; RI=IDFLA
100 ;
LRI=LAGRI; NX = X - M;
RNX = NXDFLA
100 ;
LRNX=LAGRNX; LR=LAGR;
RMS=MSDFLA
100 ;
LRMS=LAGRMS; LIHK=LAGIHK;
PIHK= IHK-LIHK; LEXR=LAGEXR;
RR=R-DINF; LRR=LAGRR;
L2RR=LAG2RR; P2RR=RR-L2RR;
L3RR=LAG3RR; REXR = EXRIHKUSCPI;
LUSCPI=LAGUSCPI; RFRATE = FEDRATE - USCPI-LUSCPILUSCPI
100 ;
UIP = RR – RFRATE; OILP=WOILDFLA100;
RW=WDFLA100; LRW=LAGRW;
LEMP=LAGEMP; UNEMP=LF-EMP;
LUSGDP=LAGUSGDP;
222
Lampiran 5. Lanjutan “BLOK DEFORESTASI”
“HTI” RHEPU=HEPUEXRDFLA100;
L2RHEPU=LAG2RHEPU;
PRHEPU=RHEPU-LRHEPU; RHKHTI=HKHTIDFLA100;
LRHKHTI=LAGRHKHTI; RHBBM=HBBMDFLA100;
LAHTI=LAGAHTI; LQKHTI=LAGQKHTI;
LDKHTI=LAGDKHTI; LRHEPU=LAGRHEPU;
PRHEPU=RHEPU-LRHEPU; “SAWIT”
RHEMSW=HEMSWEXRDFLA100; LRHEMSW=LAGRHEMSW;
RHBSW=HBSWDFLA100; LRHBSW=LAGRHBSW;
LATSW=LAGATSW; LQBSW=LAGQBSW;
LRHDMSW=LAGRHDMSW; LDBSW=LAGDBSW;
“KARET” RHDKR=HDKRDFLA100;
L2RHDKR=LAG2RHDKR; RHEKR=HEKREXRDFLA100;
LRHEKR=LAGRHEKR; PRHEKR=RHEKR-LRHEKR;
LATKR=LAGATKR; LQKR=LAGQKR;
LDDKR=LAGDDKR; LQXKR=LAGQXKR;
“PADI” RHGKG=HGKGDFLA100;
LRHGKG=LAGRHGKG; RHPP=HPPDFLA100;
LRHPP=LAGRHPP; PRHPP=RHPP-LRHPP;
LATPD=LAGATPD;
223
Lampiran 5. Lanjutan LQGKG=LAGQGKG;
RHDBR=LAGHDBRDFLA100; LDGKG=LAGDGKG;
TTDF =TDFHTI + TDFSW + TDFKR + TDFPD; “BLOK DEGRADASI HUTAN”
RHEKL=HEKLEXRDFLA100; RHKHA=HKBHAEXRDFLA100;
LRHKHA=LAGRHKHA; L2QILL=LAG2QILL;
LQILL=LAGQILL; LAHPH=LAGAHPH;
RDR=DRDFLA100; RPSDH=PSDHDFLA100;
LQKBHA=LAGQKBHA; LDKBKG=LAGDKBKG;
LDKBKL=LAGDKBKL; Q=QILL+QKBHA;
RUN; PERINTAH VALIDASI
PROC MODEL DATA=OLAH THEIL STATS NDEC=2; ENDOGENOUS
R RR UIP EXR RPPJK RG RI RNX RC RY IHK EMP UNEMP LRPPJK
LRG L2RR
LRI LRNX
LRY LR
LRMS LEXR
LEMP LRW
224
Lampiran 5. Lanjutan TDFHTI QKHTI DKHTI RHKHTI
L2RHEPU LAHTI
LQKHTI LRHEPU
LDKHTI LRHKHTI
TDFSW QBSW DBSW RHBSW L3RR
LRHKHTI LATSW
LRHBSW LQBSW
LDBSW TDFKR QKR DDKR QXKR RHDKR
LATKR LQKR
LRR LDDKR
LRHEKR L2RHDKR
LUSGDP LQXKR
LRHDKR TDFPD QGKG DGKG RHGKG
LATPD LQGKG
LRHPP LDGKG
LRHGKG TTDF
TDGHPH QILL QKBHA DKBKG DKBKL RHKHA L2QILL
LRHEMSW LAHPH
LQILL LRHKHA
LQKBHA LDKBKG
LDKBKL ;
225
Lampiran 5. Lanjutan INSTRUMENTS
OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI
RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR
RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH
RPSDH RDR QXKB ; PARAMETERS
a0 -56417.51 a1 0.750511 a2 -1421.586 b0 -58992.19 b1 0.153017 b2 -156.8430 b3 0.039132
c0 10143.62 c1 0.424322 c2 127.5101 c3 0.266048 d0 74462.03 d1 -1654.394 d2 0.224192 d3 -183634.0 d4 0.042195
e0 170114.6 e1 13.56636 e2 -0.177489 e3 -311.6503 e4 0.069802 f0 12.01211 f1 -1.67E-05 f2 1.357908 f3 0.206645 f4 10.88883 f5 -11.67211
f6 0.112403 g0 -10.80682 g1 1.82E-05 g2 0.963798
h0 274.6091 h1 -84.16786 h2 -0.009667 h3 0.001464 h4 1732.817 h5 0.916711 i0 9.569870 i1 -4.01E-07 i2 3.66E-06 i3 0.850619
j0 6016.618 j1 0.000108 j2 -5.292850 J3 -20.05732 J4 -0.004082 J5 -0.778556 J6 0.000131 J7 -0.000199 J8-0.000330 J9 1237.097 J10 -0.532633
k0 -6381.576 k1 12.86628 k2 -71.09410 k3 3093.358 k4 0.835054 k5 0.543766 l0 3607.390 l1 -2.353228 l2 -274.6870 l3 -0.004142 l4 0.000491 l5 0.025669
l6 0.819260 m0 18.82956 m1 7.96E-06 m2 -1.28E-05 m3 -0.000813 m4 0.936295
n0 609.7858 n1 0.000102 n2 -0.639404 n3 -16.22272 n4 -0.000218 n5 - 1.465558
n6 0.001137 n7 -0.222924 o0 -43931.98 o1 0.045690 o2 -4.365651 o3 4507.690 o4 9.768787 o5 0.031463
p0 -2240.855 p1 -23.33913 p2 -290.5749 p3 -0.010631 p4 1.367105 p5 0.022292 p6 0.656303
q0 81.57648 q1 4.08E-05 q2 0.001926 q3 0.117844 r0 606.9273 r1 0.001077 r2 -8.230076 r3 -9.18E-05 r4 -1.15E-05 r5 6.06E-06
r6 -0.161324 s0 -1304.818 s1 0.002637 s2 -0.774956 s3 3139.824 s4 0.380744 s5 0.074075
t0 106.6144 t1 -0.010171 t2 -5.828949 t3 0.000375 t4 0.846774 u0 2.390472 u1 1.29E-05 u2 -0.015125 u3 0.043709 u4 0.082284
v0 4283.563 v1 7.43E-05 v2 3.674619 v3 -2.365590 v4 0.202657 w0 -8932.421 w1 0.348219 w2 0.503538 w3 -29.89181 w4 -0.169767 w5 -
0.000891
w6 3.953993 w7 48.56133 w8 -0.175141
226
Lampiran 5. Lanjutan x0 -14874.88 x1 0.512634 x2 -60.46712 x3 -0.299394 x4 4012.332 x5
0.953306
y0 27606.61 y1 -0.645931 y2 -49.54460 y3 -2.135224 y4 0.997525 y5 0.011510
y6 0.170233 z0 2081.029 z1 0.177328 z2 -0.026394 z3 0.389236
aa0 15298.41 aa1 0.003540 aa2 -0.009923 aa3 -540.0948 aa4 -0.427461 aa5 -0.001537 aa6 -0.000171 aa7 -1108.177 aa8 -0.138803
bb0 3297.057 bb1 0.000758 bb2 -131.7571 bb3 -2.980244 bb4 -0.021163 bb5 435.8382 bb6 419.6691 bb7 0.398822
cc0 -10537.70 cc1 0.002810 cc2 -209.7087 cc3 -0.494821 cc4 765.9082 cc5 0.369004 cc6 0.276578
dd0 -2237.476 dd1 -0.001864 dd2 16.06732 dd3 -208.4581 dd4 -0.000851 dd5 0.000965 dd6 0.744542
ee0 897.3071 ee1 -0.003402 ee2 5.518416 ee3 -33.40311 ee4 -0.004357 ee5 0.000612 ee6 0.011809 ee7 0.955296
ff0 309719.4 ff1 0.129333 ff2 -15.45845 ff3 0.551386 ; RC = a0 + a1RYD + a2RR ;
RPPJK = b0 + b1RY + b2RR + b3LRPPJK; RG = c0 + c1RPPJK + c2OILP + c3LRG;
RI = d0 + d1L2RR + d2RY + d3KRISIS + d4LRI ; RNX = e0 + e1EXRIHKUSCPI + e2RY + e3OILP + e4LRNX;
R = f0 + f1LRMS + f2IHK-LIHK + f3EXPINF + f4KRISIS + f5FER + f6LR;
IHK = g0 + g1LRY + g2LIHK ; EXR = h0 + h1UIP + h2LRNX + h3RMS + h4KRISIS + h5LEXR ;
EMP = i0 + i1LRW + i2RY + i3LEMP; RY = RC + RI + RG + RNX ;
RR = R-DINF; UIP = RR -RFRATE ;
UNEMP = LF - EMP; LRPPJK = LAGRPPJK;
LRG = LAGRG; L2RR=LAG2RR;
LRI = LAGRI;
227
Lampiran 5. Lanjutan LRNX = LAGRNX;
LRY = LAGRY; LR = LAGR;
LRMS=LAGRMS; LEXR = LAGEXR;
LEMP = LAGEMP; LRW = LAGRW;
TDFHTI = j0 + j1L2RHEPU + j2RHKHTI + j3RR-L2RR + j4RW + j5RHBBM + j6RHEKR + j7RHEMSW + j8RHEKL + j9PPHTI +
j10LAHTI; QKHTI = k0 + k1RHKHTI + k2RR + k3PRODHTI + k4AHTI +
k5LQKHTI; DKHTI = l0 + l1RHKHTI + l2RR + l3RW + l4RHEPU-LRHEPU +
l5RY-LRY + l6LDKHTI; RHKHTI = m0 + m1RHEPU-LRHEPU + m2RHKHA + m3LQKHTI +
m4LRHKHTI; DKHTI = QKHTI;
TDFSW = n0 + n1RHEMSW + n2RHBSW + n3L3RR + n4RW + n5LRHKHTI + n6LRHKHA + n7LATSW ;
QBSW = o0 + o1LRHBSW + o2RR + o3PRODSW + o4ATSW + o5LQBSW ;
DBSW = p0 + p1RHBSW + p2RR + p3RW + p4RHDMSW + p5RY + p6LDBSW;
RHBSW = q0 + q1RHEMSW + q2DBSW + q3LRHBSW; QBSW = DBSW;
L3RR = LAG3RR; LRHKHTI = LAGRHKHTI;
LATSW=LAGATSW; LRHBSW=LAGRHBSW;
LQBSW=LAGQBSW; LDBSW = LAGDBSW;
TDFKR = r0 + r1RHDKR + r2RR + r3RHKHA + r4RHEMSW + r5RHEKR + r6LATKR ;
QKR = s0 + s1RHDKR + s2RR + s3PRODKR + s4ATKR + s5LQKR; DDKR = t0 + t1RHDKR + t2LRR + t3RY-LRY + t4LDDKR;
QXKR =u0 + u1LRHEKR + u2L2RHDKR + u3LUSGDP + u4LQXKR; RHDKR = v0 + v1RHEKR-LRHEKR + v2QXKR + v3QKR +
v4LRHDKR; QKR = DDKR + QXKR;
228
Lampiran 5. Lanjutan LATKR = LAGATKR;
LQKR = LAGQKR; LRR=LAGRR;
LDDKR = LAGDDKR; LRHEKR =LAGRHEKR;
L2RHDKR = LAG2RHDKR; LUSGDP =LAGUSGDP;
LQXKR = LAGQXKR; LRHDKR=LAGRHDKR;
TDFPD = w0 + w1RHGKG + w2RHPP + w3RR + w4RHBBM + w5RHKHA + w6RHKHTI + w7POP + w8LATPD;
QGKG = x0 + x1RHGKG + x2RR + x3RHBBM + x4PRODPD + x5LQGKG;
DGKG = y0 + y1LRHPP + y2RR + y3RHBBM + y4RHDBR + y5RY + y6LDGKG;
RHGKG = z0 + z1RHPP-LRHPP + z2QGKG + z3LRHGKG; QGKG = DGKG;
TTDF = TDFHTI + TDFSW + TDFKR + TDFPD; TDGHPH = aa0 + aa1RHEKL + aa2RHKHA + aa3RR + aa4L2QILL +
aa5LRHEMSW + aa6LRHEKR + aa7KPIHPH + aa8LAHPH; QILL = bb0 + bb1RHKHA + bb2RR + bb3RHBBM + bb4RDR +
bb5PRODHA + bb6PKUM + bb7LQILL ; QKBHA = cc0 + cc1LRHKHA + cc2LRR + cc3RPSDH + cc4PRODHA +
cc5AHPH + cc6LQKBHA; DKBKG = dd0 + dd1RHKHA + dd2RHKHTI + dd3RR + dd4RW +
dd5RY + dd6LDKBKG; DKBKL = ee0 + ee1RHKHA + ee2RHKHTI + ee3 LRR + ee4RW +
ee5RHEKL + ee6RY-LRY + ee7LDKBKL; RHKHA = ff0 + ff1RHEKL + ff2QILL+QKBHA + ff3LRHKHA;
QKBHA + QILL = DKBKG + DKBKL + QXKB ;
L2QILL = LAG2QILL; LRHEMSW = LAGRHEMSW;
LAHPH = LAGAHPH; LQILL = LAGQILL;
LRHKHA = LAGRHKHA; LQKBHA = LAGQKBHA;
LDKBKG = LAGDKBKG; LDKBKL = LAGDKBKL;
229
Lampiran 5. Lanjutan RANGE TAHUN = 1983 TO 2008;
SOLVE R RR UIP EXR RPPJK RG RI RNX RC RY IHK EMP UNEMP
LRPPJK LRG
L2RR LRI
LRNX LRY
LR LRMS
LEXR LEMP
LRW TDFHTI QKHTI DKHTI RHKHTI
L2RHEPU LAHTI
LQKHTI LRHEPU
LDKHTI LRHKHTI
TDFSW QBSW DBSW RHBSW L3RR
LRHKHTI LATSW
LRHBSW LQBSW
LDBSW TDFKR QKR DDKR QXKR RHDKR
LATKR LQKR
LRR LDDKR
LRHEKR L2RHDKR
LUSGDP LQXKR
LRHDKR
230
Lampiran 5. Lanjutan TDFPD QGKG DGKG RHGKG
LATPD LQGKG
LRHPP LDGKG
LRHGKG TTDF
TDGHPH QILL QKBHA DKBKG DKBKL RHKHA L2QILL
LRHEMSW LAHPH
LQILL LRHKHA
LQKBHA LDKBKG
LDKBKL OUTPREDICT ; RUN
;
231
Lampiran 6. Hasil Validasi Model Ekonomi Deforestasi dan Degradasi Hutan Alam Menggunakan Metode Newton, Prosedur SYSNLIN, Software
SAS versi 9.0
The MODEL Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation
Solution Range TAHUN = 1983 To 2008 Descriptive Statistics
Actual Predicted Variable
N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev R
26 26 14.1908 11.0892 14.0273 4.5906 RR
26 26 2.9010 5.5753 2.7375 13.8923 UIP
26 26 0.7466 5.1916 0.5831 14.1443 EXR
26 26 6622.7 4944.0 6720.1 4797.1 REXR
26 26 6956.0 7313.7 6841.0 6921.6 RPPJK
26 26 129891 66351.2 129024 70501.3 RG
26 26 98172.8 32781.6 98336.6 33363.8 RI
26 26 321683 134461 330995 122323 RNX
26 26 33849.9 74842.4 31354.4 48829.4 RC
26 26 742744 301174 740155 283907 RY
26 26 1196450 440139 1200841 442038 IHK
26 26 75.2057 60.2377 75.2200 60.0676 EMP
26 26 82.2600 11.9070 82.3260 11.7369 UNEMP
26 26 5.2146 3.4952 5.1799 3.6401 LRPPJK
26 26 120762 62560.2 120011 67090.0 LRI
26 26 303421 123769 315077 117952 LRG
26 26 93787.1 29496.4 94117.1 30617.3 LRNX
26 26 32977.7 75118.0 30278.4 49229.6 LRY
26 26 1136763 419942 1141836 424138 LR
26 26 14.5281 11.0431 14.1760 4.6327 LRMS
26 26 501474 256026 501474 256026 LEXR
26 26 6279.7 5031.9 6341.8 4866.2 LEMP
26 26 80.5389 12.0893 80.6082 11.9379 LRW
26 26 513077 174259 513077 174259 TDFHTI
26 26 275.0 490.5 291.3 624.5 QKHTI
26 26 4079.5 7167.2 3972.5 7626.5 DKHTI
26 26 4079.5 7167.2 3972.5 7626.5 RHKHTI
26 26 350.8 155.3 345.4 112.3 L2RHEPU
26 26 3928551 1418815 3928551 1418815 LRHEPU
26 26 3926454 1421881 3926454 1421881 LAHTI
26 26 2291.7 2617.0 2291.7 2617.0 LQKHTI
26 26 3221.1 6161.2 3129.4 6720.8 LDKHTI
26 26 3221.1 6161.2 3129.4 6720.8 TDFSW
26 26 270.5 256.5 257.3 247.5 QBSW
26 26 28600.5 23830.0 29153.6 23992.0 DBSW
26 26 28600.5 23830.0 29153.6 23992.0 RHBSW
26 26 329.6 85.0738 330.3 64.8785 L3RR
26 26 3.6736 5.2173 2.8987 13.8732 LRHKHTI
26 26 366.7 152.1 361.0 109.3 LRHKHA
26 26 693551 342976 668269 270331 LATSW
26 26 2704.6 2097.1 2704.6 2097.1 LQBSW
26 26 25689.2 21877.9 26286.9 22240.8 LDBSW
26 26 25689.2 21877.9 26286.9 22240.8 TDFKR
26 26 36.1652 77.6525 38.5953 115.4 QKR
26 26 1602.9 508.6 1606.3 567.5 DDKR
26 26 161.6 111.4 205.1 139.9 QXKR
26 26 1441.3 422.8 1401.2 472.9 RHDKR
26 26 7255.1 1339.5 7098.9 696.4 LATKR
26 26 3195.1 316.1 3195.1 316.1 LQKR
26 26 1531.7 469.5 1543.4 550.8 LDDKR
26 26 147.3 92.7519 196.5 139.3 LQXKR
26 26 1384.3 404.2 1346.8 456.6
232
Lampiran 6. Lanjutan
LRHEKR 26 26 11210039 7149536 11210039 7149536
TDFPD 26 26 171.3 370.7 167.4 466.3
QGKG 26 26 47989.9 6226.9 48295.8 5927.0
DGKG 26 26 47989.9 6226.9 48295.8 5927.0
RHGKG 26 26 1343.0 461.6 1339.3 314.0
LATPD 26 26 10558.2 1395.8 10558.2 1395.8
LQGKG 26 26 46962.6 6313.0 47349.4 6235.1
LDGKG 26 26 46962.6 6313.0 47349.4 6235.1
TTDF 26 26 753.0 683.0 754.6 1075.1
TDGHPH 26 26 ‐1018.2 3801.4 ‐801.0 6445.6
QILL 26 26 10540.1 3904.1 10601.2 3835.7
QKBHA 26 26 15355.6 9316.1 15488.9 8810.3
DKBKG 26 26 9965.3 7292.3 10040.6 4858.6
DKBKL 26 26 15658.7 5149.8 14677.0 3034.8
RHKHA 26 26 715581 340166 698428 280021
L2QILL 26 26 10818.3 3484.2 10915.4 3319.3
LRHEMSW 26 26 3772992 1196814 3772992 1196814
LAHPH 26 26 47879.0 13194.2 47879.0 13194.2
LQILL 26 26 10719.1 3687.4 10830.5 3500.3
LQKBHA 26 26 15692.0 9067.9 15948.0 8347.8
LDKBKG 26 26 10448.9 7092.4 10571.9 4433.0
LDKBKL 26 26 15555.0 5345.2 14497.0 3466.2
Statistics of fit Mean Mean Mean Abs Mean Abs RMS
Variable N Error Error Error Error Error R 26 ‐0.1635 19.9924 5.3969 38.2020 10.2451
RR 26 ‐0.1635 33.6425 5.3969 519.9 10.2451 UIP 26 ‐0.1635 734.9 5.3969 900.4 10.2451
EXR 26 97.4659 10.6358 1087.9 21.4302 1531.6 REXR 26 ‐115.0 10.0331 1117.4 20.8965 1847.1
RPPJK 26 ‐866.9 ‐0.5342 12639.9 11.6899 15805.2 RG 26 163.8 0.7303 9379.7 10.9507 11347.5
RI 26 9312.0 7.7681 75979.2 24.1748 99698.0 RNX 26 ‐2495.5 ‐18.5602 28409.3 107.4 51350.5
RC 26 ‐2588.8 0.8277 36597.8 5.0568 47991.8 RY 26 4391.5 0.8397 52416.1 4.8204 61968.7
IHK 26 0.0142 0.3446 3.9907 6.1430 6.7296 EMP 26 0.0660 0.1615 1.2723 1.5887 1.6880
UNEMP 26 ‐0.0348 ‐9.2247 1.3020 39.9030 1.6937 LRPPJK 26 ‐750.8 ‐0.4911 12523.7 11.6469 15794.1
LRI 26 11656.5 8.1446 73634.7 23.7983 98978.7 LRG 26 329.9 0.8249 9213.6 10.8560 11315.8
LRNX 26 ‐2699.3 ‐19.4876 28205.6 106.5 51340.0 LRY 26 5073.1 0.8724 51734.4 4.7876 61871.1
LR 26 ‐0.3521 17.7792 5.2084 35.9888 10.1999 LRMS 26 0 0 0 0 0
LEXR 26 62.0199 10.2696 1052.5 21.0640 1520.9 LEMP 26 0.0693 0.1647 1.2690 1.5855 1.6879
LRW 26 0 0 0 0 0 TDFHTI 26 16.3312 . 374.9 . 500.0
QKHTI 26 ‐107.0 . 2026.6 . 2502.3 DKHTI 26 ‐107.0 . 2026.6 . 2502.3
RHKHTI 26 ‐5.3976 4.9456 45.0776 14.8183 55.2139 L2RHEPU 26 0 0 0 0 0
LRHEPU 26 0 0 0 0 0 LAHTI 26 0 . 0 . 0
LQKHTI 26 ‐91.6961 . 2011.3 . 2501.1 LDKHTI 26 ‐91.6961 . 2011.3 . 2501.1
TDFSW 26 ‐13.2776 541.9 204.4 593.8 278.5 QBSW 26 553.1 9.0301 4903.6 25.5098 5890.1
DBSW 26 553.1 9.0301 4903.6 25.5098 5890.1
233
Lampiran 6. Lanjutan
RHBSW 26 0.7766 2.3905 39.1631 12.3569 49.5883 L3RR 26 ‐0.7749 239.2 4.7855 314.3 10.0545
LRHKHTI 26 ‐5.7238 4.6787 44.7514 14.5514 55.1888 LRHKHA 26 ‐25282.2 0.1246 84684.4 10.3192 125801
LATSW 26 0 0 0 0 0 LQBSW 26 597.7 9.0861 4859.0 25.4538 5885.7
LDBSW 26 597.7 9.0861 4859.0 25.4538 5885.7 TDFKR 26 2.4301 ‐34.1131 69.5260 149.5 103.7
QKR 26 3.4529 ‐0.7689 190.9 12.5704 230.6 DDKR 26 43.5617 65.1492 116.9 127.3 144.2
QXKR 26 ‐40.1088 ‐4.0479 143.9 11.1116 167.5 RHDKR 26 ‐156.2 0.5596 1019.4 14.4287 1229.1
LATKR 26 0 0 0 0 0 LQKR 26 11.7127 ‐0.4687 182.6 12.2702 226.7
LDDKR 26 49.1847 66.3504 111.3 126.1 141.4 LQXKR 26 ‐37.4720 ‐3.9325 141.3 10.9961 166.9
LRHEKR 26 0 0 0 0 0 TDFPD 26 ‐3.9481 293379 402.7 293599 525.1
QGKG 26 305.9 0.8531 1738.8 3.7505 2067.4 DGKG 26 305.9 0.8531 1738.8 3.7505 2067.4
RHGKG 26 ‐3.6843 4.7171 244.0 18.5087 310.0 LATPD 26 0 0 0 0 0
LQGKG 26 386.8 0.9872 1657.9 3.6163 2025.8 LDGKG 26 386.8 0.9872 1657.9 3.6163 2025.8
TTDF 26 1.5356 ‐80.9076 591.0 1070.3 818.8 TDGHPH 26 217.2 . 3812.0 . 6280.3
QILL 26 61.0601 2.9550 1837.8 19.4000 2476.1 QKBHA 26 133.3 12.7602 2380.9 34.3268 3268.0
DKBKG 26 75.2301 108.4 5270.6 154.5 6066.9 DKBKL 26 ‐981.7 ‐0.2401 2885.7 19.1891 3322.3
RHKHA 26 ‐17152.9 0.9811 92813.7 11.1758 132454 L2QILL 26 97.1430 3.6609 1773.3 17.5162 2461.7
LRHEMSW 26 0 0 0 0 0 LAHPH 26 0 0 0 0 0
LQILL 26 111.4 4.2498 1787.5 18.1052 2462.8 LQKBHA 26 256.0 15.4101 2258.3 31.6770 3207.6
LDKBKG 26 123.0 112.9 5222.9 150.0 6062.0 LDKBKL 26 ‐1058.0 ‐1.2634 2809.5 18.1658 3299.5
The MODEL Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation
Solution Range TAHUN = 1983 To 2008 Statistics of fit
RMS Variable Error R‐Square Label
R 50.2578 0.1123 R RR 1464.2 ‐2.512
UIP 3619.6 ‐3.050 EXR 33.0772 0.9002 EXR
REXR 30.2444 0.9337 RPPJK 14.7545 0.9410
RG 13.8292 0.8754 RI 29.4348 0.4282
RNX 205.4 0.5104 RC 6.4702 0.9736
RY 5.5535 0.9794 IHK 9.1325 0.9870 IHK
EMP 2.2150 0.9791 EMP UNEMP 77.1481 0.7558 UNEMP
LRPPJK 14.7528 0.9337 LRI 29.3721 0.3349
LRG 13.8207 0.8469
234
Lampiran 6. Lanjutan
LRNX 205.3 0.5142 LRY 5.5510 0.9774
LR 48.9744 0.1128 LRMS 0 1.0000
LEXR 33.0244 0.9050 LEMP 2.2149 0.9797
LRW 0 1.0000 TDFHTI . ‐.0809 TDFHTI
QKHTI . 0.8732 QKHTI DKHTI . 0.8732 DKHTI
RHKHTI 19.9409 0.8686 L2RHEPU 0 1.0000
LRHEPU 0 1.0000 LAHTI . 1.0000
LQKHTI . 0.8286 LDKHTI . 0.8286
TDFSW 2383.4 ‐.2266 TDFSW QBSW 31.7273 0.9365 QBSW
DBSW 31.7273 0.9365 DBSW RHBSW 15.8882 0.6467
L3RR 1053.5 ‐2.862 LRHKHTI 19.8943 0.8630
LRHKHA 12.9282 0.8601 LATSW 0 1.0000
LQBSW 31.7260 0.9247 LDBSW 31.7260 0.9247
TDFKR 250.8 ‐.8562 TDFKR QKR 15.1035 0.7862 QKR
DDKR 188.0 ‐.7436 DDKR QXKR 13.9520 0.8368 QXKR
RHDKR 17.3561 0.1243 LATKR 0 1.0000
LQKR 15.0257 0.7574 LDDKR 187.9 ‐1.416
LQXKR 13.9396 0.8227 LRHEKR 0 1.0000
TDFPD 1495803 ‐1.087 TDFPD QGKG 4.5748 0.8854 QGKG
DGKG 4.5748 0.8854 DGKG RHGKG 23.7177 0.5310
LATPD 0 1.0000 LQGKG 4.5234 0.8929
LDGKG 4.5234 0.8929 TTDF 3224.7 ‐.4947
TDGHPH . ‐1.839 TDGHPH QILL 27.3958 0.5817 QILL
QKBHA 58.7065 0.8720 QKBHA DKBKG 274.3 0.2802 DKBKG
DKBKL 23.2064 0.5671 DKBKL RHKHA 13.6460 0.8423
L2QILL 26.4182 0.4809 LRHEMSW 0 1.0000
LAHPH 0 1.0000 LQILL 26.5884 0.5361
LQKBHA 57.1305 0.8699 LDKBKG 273.4 0.2402
LDKBKL 22.6122 0.6037
235
Lampiran 6. Lanjutan
The MODEL Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation
Solution Range TAHUN = 1983 To 2008 Theil Forecast Error Statistics
Corr Variable N MSE R
R 26 105.0 0.34 RR 26 105.0 0.74
UIP 26 105.0 0.80 EXR 26 2345875 0.95
REXR 26 3411948 0.97 RPPJK 26 2.498E8 0.97
RG 26 1.2877E8 0.94 RI 26 9.9397E9 0.69
RNX 26 2.6369E9 0.72 RC 26 2.3032E9 0.99
RY 26 3.8401E9 0.99 IHK 26 45.2881 0.99
EMP 26 2.8493 0.99 UNEMP 26 2.8687 0.88
LRPPJK 26 2.4945E8 0.97 LRI 26 9.7968E9 0.66
LRG 26 1.2805E8 0.93 LRNX 26 2.6358E9 0.72
LRY 26 3.828E9 0.99 LR 26 104.0 0.35
LRMS 26 0 . LEXR 26 2313209 0.95
LEMP 26 2.8490 0.99 LRW 26 0 .
TDFHTI 26 250018 0.61 QKHTI 26 6261715 0.94
DKHTI 26 6261715 0.94 RHKHTI 26 3048.6 0.96
L2RHEPU 26 0 . LRHEPU 26 0 .
LAHTI 26 0 . LQKHTI 26 6255628 0.93
LDKHTI 26 6255628 0.93 TDFSW 26 77574.9 0.37
QBSW 26 34693062 0.97 DBSW 26 34693062 0.97
RHBSW 26 2459.0 0.81 L3RR 26 101.1 0.80
LRHKHTI 26 3045.8 0.96 LRHKHA 26 1.583E10 0.94
LATSW 26 0 . LQBSW 26 34641224 0.96
LDBSW 26 34641224 0.96 TDFKR 26 10762.0 0.46
QKR 26 53187.4 0.91 DDKR 26 20805.8 0.40
QXKR 26 28041.8 0.94 RHDKR 26 1510679 0.39
LATKR 26 0 . LQKR 26 51413.6 0.91
LDDKR 26 19983.8 0.38 LQXKR 26 27861.0 0.93
LRHEKR 26 0 . TDFPD 26 275698 0.20
QGKG 26 4274188 0.94 DGKG 26 4274188 0.94
RHGKG 26 96080.7 0.73
236
Lampiran 6. Lanjutan
LATPD 26 0 . LQGKG 26 4103990 0.95
LDGKG 26 4103990 0.95 TTDF 26 670472 0.63
TDGHPH 26 39441668 0.31 QILL 26 6130916 0.79
QKBHA 26 10679809 0.93 DKBKG 26 36806869 0.54
DKBKL 26 11038001 0.81 RHKHA 26 1.754E10 0.92
L2QILL 26 6059890 0.73 LRHEMSW 26 0 .
LAHPH 26 0 . LQILL 26 6065143 0.76
LQKBHA 26 10288619 0.93 LDKBKG 26 36747645 0.50
LDKBKL 26 10886794 0.82
The MODEL Procedure
Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range TAHUN = 1983 To 2008
Theil Forecast Error Statistics MSE Decomposition Proportions
Bias Reg Dist Var Covar Inequality Coef Variable UM UR UD US UC U1 U
R 0.00 0.01 0.99 0.39 0.61 0.5731 0.3142 RR 0.00 0.87 0.13 0.63 0.37 1.6554 0.5101
UIP 0.00 0.91 0.09 0.73 0.27 1.9912 0.5384 EXR 0.00 0.00 0.99 0.01 0.99 0.1866 0.0933
REXR 0.00 0.01 0.99 0.04 0.95 0.1849 0.0941 RPPJK 0.00 0.13 0.86 0.07 0.93 0.1088 0.0542
RG 0.00 0.05 0.95 0.00 1.00 0.1098 0.0548 RI 0.01 0.08 0.91 0.01 0.98 0.2868 0.1425
RNX 0.00 0.01 0.99 0.25 0.75 0.6354 0.3720 RC 0.00 0.08 0.92 0.12 0.87 0.0600 0.0302
RY 0.01 0.01 0.98 0.00 0.99 0.0487 0.0243 IHK 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 1.00 0.0704 0.0352
EMP 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.01 0.99 0.0203 0.0102 UNEMP 0.00 0.10 0.90 0.01 0.99 0.2714 0.1352
LRPPJK 0.00 0.15 0.84 0.08 0.92 0.1166 0.0580
LRI 0.01 0.13 0.85 0.00 0.98 0.3029 0.1494 LRG 0.00 0.08 0.92 0.01 0.99 0.1153 0.0575
LRNX 0.00 0.01 0.99 0.24 0.75 0.6361 0.3729 LRY 0.01 0.02 0.97 0.00 0.99 0.0512 0.0255
LR 0.00 0.01 0.99 0.38 0.62 0.5629 0.3090 LRMS . . . . . 0.0000 0.0000
LEXR 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.01 0.99 0.1904 0.0955 LEMP 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.01 0.99 0.0207 0.0104
LRW . . . . . 0.0000 0.0000 TDFHTI
0.00 0.41 0.59 0.07 0.93 0.9025 0.4058 QKHTI 0.00 0.12 0.88 0.03 0.97 0.3079 0.1508
DKHTI 0.00 0.12 0.88 0.03 0.97 0.3079 0.1508 RHKHTI 0.01 0.44 0.55 0.58 0.41 0.1444 0.0741
L2RHEPU . . . . . 0.0000 0.0000 LRHEPU . . . . . 0.0000 0.0000
LAHTI . . . . . 0.0000 0.0000 LQKHTI 0.00 0.16 0.84 0.05 0.95 0.3653 0.1769
LDKHTI 0.00 0.16 0.84 0.05 0.95 0.3653 0.1769 TDFSW 0.00 0.29 0.71 0.00 1.00 0.7540 0.3852
QBSW 0.01 0.02 0.97 0.00 0.99 0.1595 0.0792 DBSW 0.01 0.02 0.97 0.00 0.99 0.1595 0.0792
237
Lampiran 6. Lanjutan
RHBSW 0.00 0.01 0.99 0.16 0.84 0.1459 0.0733 L3RR 0.01 0.90 0.10 0.71 0.28 1.5964 0.4976
LRHKHTI 0.01 0.43 0.56 0.58 0.41 0.1394 0.0715 LRHKHA 0.04 0.17 0.79 0.32 0.64 0.1632 0.0844
LATSW . . . . . 0.0000 0.0000 LQBSW 0.01 0.04 0.95 0.00 0.99 0.1759 0.0870
LDBSW 0.01 0.04 0.95 0.00 0.99 0.1759 0.0870 TDFKR 0.00 0.57 0.43 0.13 0.87 1.2307 0.5088
QKR 0.00 0.20 0.80 0.06 0.94 0.1374 0.0683 DDKR 0.09 0.42 0.48 0.04 0.87 0.7395 0.3265
QXKR 0.06 0.20 0.74 0.09 0.86 0.1117 0.0563 RHDKR 0.02 0.02 0.97 0.26 0.72 0.1667 0.0847
LATKR . . . . . 0.0000 0.0000 LQKR 0.00 0.29 0.71 0.12 0.87 0.1418 0.0701
LDDKR 0.12 0.52 0.36 0.10 0.77 0.8164 0.3427 LQXKR 0.05 0.22 0.73 0.09 0.85 0.1159 0.0584
LRHEKR . . . . . 0.0000 0.0000 TDFPD 0.00 0.54 0.46 0.03 0.97 1.3066 0.5908
QGKG 0.02 0.00 0.98 0.02 0.96 0.0427 0.0213 DGKG 0.02 0.00 0.98 0.02 0.96 0.0427 0.0213
RHGKG 0.00 0.01 0.99 0.22 0.78 0.2187 0.1110 LATPD . . . . . 0.0000 0.0000
LQGKG 0.04 0.01 0.95 0.00 0.96 0.0428 0.0213 LDGKG 0.04 0.01 0.95 0.00 0.96 0.0428 0.0213
TTDF 0.00 0.60 0.40 0.22 0.78 0.8125 0.3554 TDGHPH 0.00 0.68 0.32 0.17 0.83 1.6253 0.6136
QILL 0.00 0.09 0.91 0.00 1.00 0.2208 0.1102 QKBHA 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.02 0.98 0.1829 0.0918
DKBKG 0.00 0.02 0.98 0.15 0.85 0.4946 0.2595 DKBKL 0.09 0.11 0.80 0.39 0.52 0.2019 0.1057
RHKHA 0.02 0.07 0.92 0.20 0.78 0.1678 0.0860 L2QILL 0.00 0.10 0.90 0.00 0.99 0.2170 0.1083
LRHEMSW . . . . . 0.0000 0.0000 LAHPH . . . . . 0.0000 0.0000
LQILL 0.00 0.08 0.92 0.01 0.99 0.2177 0.1086 LQKBHA 0.01 0.00 0.99 0.05 0.95 0.1778 0.0892
LDKBKG 0.00 0.02 0.98 0.19 0.81 0.4830 0.2528 LDKBKL 0.10 0.08 0.82 0.31 0.59 0.2010 0.1054
238
Lampiran 6. Lanjutan
The MODEL Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation
Solution Range TAHUN = 1983 To 2008 Theil Relative Change Forecast
Error Statistics Relative Change
Corr Variable N MSE R
R 26 0.3186 0.36 RR 26 77.3196 0.83
UIP 26 409.4 1.00 EXR 26 0.1411 0.55
REXR 26 0.1345 0.67 RPPJK 26 0.0269 0.50
RG 26 0.0183 0.41 RI 26 0.1104 0.64
RNX 26 18.1767 0.85 RC 26 0.00464 0.52
RY 26 0.00346 0.70 IHK 26 0.0177 0.29
EMP 26 0.000506 0.64 UNEMP 26 0.4653 0.50
LRPPJK 26 0.0268 0.50 LRI 26 0.1098 0.65
LRG 26 0.0183 0.41 LRNX 26 18.1765 0.85
LRY 26 0.00345 0.71 LR 26 0.2949 0.34
LRMS 26 0 . LEXR 26 0.1407 0.56
LEMP 26 0.000506 0.66 LRW 26 0 .
TDFHTI 26 . . QKHTI 26 . .
DKHTI 26 . . RHKHTI 26 0.0323 0.36
L2RHEPU 26 0 . LRHEPU 26 0 .
LAHTI 26 . . LQKHTI 26 . .
LDKHTI 26 . . TDFSW 26 397.9 1.00
QBSW 26 0.1271 0.11 DBSW 26 0.1271 0.11
RHBSW 26 0.0249 0.83 L3RR 25 43.0162 0.97
LRHKHTI 26 0.0321 0.37 LRHKHA 26 0.0207 0.77
LATSW 26 0 . LQBSW 26 0.1271 0.08
LDBSW 26 0.1271 0.08 TDFKR 26 11.9242 0.56
QKR 26 0.0245 0.10 DDKR 26 6.2663 0.77
QXKR 26 0.0223 0.23 RHDKR 26 0.0368 0.69
LATKR 26 0 . LQKR 26 0.0243 0.12
LDDKR 26 6.2595 0.78 LQXKR 26 0.0223 0.21
LRHEKR 26 0 . TDFPD 26 3.2459E8 1.00
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Lampiran 6. Lanjutan
QGKG 26 0.00222 0.47 DGKG 26 0.00222 0.47
RHGKG 26 0.0517 0.46 LATPD 26 0 .
LQGKG 26 0.00217 0.49 LDGKG 26 0.00217 0.49
TTDF 26 990.8 0.92 TDGHPH 26 . .
QILL 26 0.1035 0.62 QKBHA 26 0.3998 0.56
DKBKG 26 4.5322 0.34 DKBKL 26 0.0437 0.42
RHKHA 26 0.0221 0.74 L2QILL 26 0.0919 0.99
LRHEMSW 26 0 . LAHPH 26 0 .
LQILL 26 0.0922 0.70 LQKBHA 26 0.3904 0.54
LDKBKG 26 4.4893 0.34 LDKBKL 26 0.0412 0.51
The MODEL Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation
Solution Range TAHUN = 1983 To 2008 Theil Relative Change Forecast Error Statistics
MSE Decomposition Proportions Bias Reg Dist Var Covar Inequality Coef
Variable UM UR UD US UC U1 U R 0.04 0.41 0.55 0.02 0.95 1.2329 0.5540
RR 0.00 0.47 0.53 0.22 0.78 0.7366 0.3160 UIP 0.05 0.94 0.01 0.93 0.01 0.6289 0.2397
EXR 0.09 0.58 0.33 0.20 0.71 1.2928 0.4799 REXR 0.05 0.10 0.85 0.01 0.94 0.7151 0.3531
RPPJK 0.00 0.62 0.38 0.18 0.81 1.1064 0.4648 RG 0.00 0.63 0.37 0.16 0.84 1.3430 0.5345
RI 0.07 0.56 0.37 0.21 0.71 1.1879 0.4519 RNX 0.00 0.14 0.86 0.41 0.59 0.5628 0.3418
RC 0.01 0.52 0.46 0.12 0.87 0.8782 0.3833 RY 0.03 0.67 0.30 0.35 0.63 0.8244 0.3378
IHK 0.00 0.05 0.95 0.24 0.76 0.7562 0.4378 EMP 0.00 0.28 0.71 0.02 0.98 0.6722 0.3207
UNEMP 0.00 0.91 0.09 0.61 0.38 2.7057 0.6679 LRPPJK 0.00 0.62 0.38 0.19 0.81 1.1034 0.4635
LRI 0.08 0.56 0.36 0.23 0.69 1.2142 0.4557 LRG 0.00 0.63 0.37 0.16 0.84 1.3434 0.5337
LRNX 0.00 0.14 0.86 0.41 0.59 0.5627 0.3417 LRY 0.03 0.67 0.30 0.35 0.62 0.8339 0.3401
LR 0.02 0.39 0.59 0.01 0.97 1.2004 0.5619 LRMS . . . . . 0.0000 0.0000
LEXR 0.08 0.58 0.33 0.20 0.71 1.2919 0.4799 LEMP 0.00 0.26 0.73 0.02 0.98 0.6441 0.3083
LRW . . . . . 0.0000 0.0000 TDFHTI . . . . . . .
QKHTI . . . . . . . DKHTI . . . . . . .
RHKHTI 0.05 0.62 0.34 0.15 0.80 1.4784 0.5927 L2RHEPU . . . . . 0.0000 0.0000
LRHEPU . . . . . 0.0000 0.0000 LAHTI . . . . . . .
LQKHTI . . . . . . . LDKHTI . . . . . . .
TDFSW 0.06 0.93 0.01 0.92 0.02 0.7024 0.2605
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Lampiran 6. Lanjutan
QBSW 0.08 0.86 0.06 0.51 0.42 2.3361 0.6364 DBSW 0.08 0.86 0.06 0.51 0.42 2.3361 0.6364
RHBSW 0.00 0.01 0.99 0.16 0.84 0.5415 0.3027 L3RR 0.03 0.84 0.13 0.77 0.21 0.6324 0.2467
LRHKHTI 0.04 0.61 0.35 0.14 0.82 1.4593 0.5884 LRHKHA 0.00 0.32 0.68 0.07 0.93 0.7497 0.3424
LATSW . . . . . 0.0000 0.0000 LQBSW 0.08 0.87 0.06 0.51 0.41 2.3138 0.6341
LDBSW 0.08 0.87 0.06 0.51 0.41 2.3138 0.6341 TDFKR 0.15 0.03 0.82 0.09 0.76 0.9147 0.5121
QKR 0.00 0.89 0.11 0.42 0.58 2.2956 0.6965 DDKR 0.15 0.77 0.08 0.61 0.24 2.1884 0.5608
QXKR 0.09 0.67 0.24 0.18 0.73 1.7097 0.6589 RHDKR 0.02 0.00 0.98 0.21 0.78 0.7148 0.4293
LATKR . . . . . 0.0000 0.0000 LQKR 0.00 0.88 0.12 0.39 0.61 2.2441 0.6901
LDDKR 0.16 0.77 0.08 0.61 0.24 2.1868 0.5604 LQXKR 0.09 0.68 0.23 0.19 0.73 1.7198 0.6627
LRHEKR . . . . . 0.0000 0.0000 TDFPD 0.04 0.96 0.00 0.96 0.00 30.3869 0.9382
QGKG 0.03 0.62 0.35 0.19 0.78 1.2021 0.4704 DGKG 0.03 0.62 0.35 0.19 0.78 1.2021 0.4704
RHGKG 0.00 0.04 0.96 0.16 0.84 0.9076 0.5523 LATPD . . . . . 0.0000 0.0000
LQGKG 0.05 0.62 0.33 0.20 0.75 1.2252 0.4700 LDGKG 0.05 0.62 0.33 0.20 0.75 1.2252 0.4700
TTDF 0.03 0.06 0.91 0.19 0.78 0.4081 0.2254 TDGHPH . . . . . . .
QILL 0.00 0.47 0.52 0.11 0.88 1.0872 0.4593 QKBHA 0.02 0.82 0.15 0.49 0.49 2.1165 0.6041
DKBKG 0.15 0.80 0.06 0.53 0.33 3.9113 0.7635 DKBKL 0.00 0.56 0.44 0.10 0.89 1.3499 0.5574
RHKHA 0.00 0.31 0.69 0.06 0.94 0.7740 0.3542 L2QILL 0.02 0.01 0.97 0.00 0.98 0.1314 0.0654
LRHEMSW . . . . . 0.0000 0.0000 LAHPH . . . . . 0.0000 0.0000
LQILL 0.02 0.48 0.51 0.16 0.83 0.9974 0.4148 LQKBHA 0.04 0.81 0.16 0.46 0.50 2.1156 0.6076
LDKBKG 0.16 0.78 0.06 0.51 0.33 3.8734 0.7620 LDKBKL 0.01 0.49 0.49 0.09 0.89 1.1821 0.5077
NOTE: Percent error statistics for 7 variables were set to missing
values because an actual value was too close to zero to compute the percent error at one or more observations.
241
Lampiran 7. Program Simulasi Model Ekonomi Deforestasi dan Degradasi Hutan Alam Menggunakan Metode Newton, Prosedur SYSNLIN,
Software SAS versi 9.0
DATA OLAH;
SET AST.MIMA1;
“BLOK MAKROEKONOMI” RY=YDFLA
100 ;
LRY=LAGRY; PRY=RY-LRY;
RPPJK=PPJKDFLA
100 ;
LRPPJK=LAGRPPJK; RC=CDFLA
100 ;
RYD=RY-RPPJK; RG=GDFLA
100 ;
LRG=LAGRG; RI=IDFLA
100
; LRI=LAGRI;
NX = X - M; RNX = NXDFLA
100 ;
LRNX=LAGRNX; LR=LAGR;
RMS=MSDFLA
100 ;
LRMS=LAGRMS; LIHK=LAGIHK;
PIHK= IHK-LIHK; LEXR=LAGEXR;
RR=R-DINF; LRR=LAGRR;
L2RR=LAG2RR; P2RR=RR-L2RR;
L3RR=LAG3RR; REXR = EXRIHKUSCPI;
LUSCPI=LAGUSCPI; RFRATE = FEDRATE - USCPI-LUSCPILUSCPI
100 ;
UIP = RR – RFRATE; OILP=WOILDFLA100;
RW=WDFLA100; LRW=LAGRW;
LEMP=LAGEMP; UNEMP=LF-EMP;
LUSGDP=LAGUSGDP;
242
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan “BLOK DEFORESTASI”
“HTI” RHEPU=HEPUEXRDFLA100;
L2RHEPU=LAG2RHEPU;
PRHEPU=RHEPU-LRHEPU; RHKHTI=HKHTIDFLA100;
LRHKHTI=LAGRHKHTI; RHBBM=HBBMDFLA100;
LAHTI=LAGAHTI; LQKHTI=LAGQKHTI;
LDKHTI=LAGDKHTI; LRHEPU=LAGRHEPU;
PRHEPU=RHEPU-LRHEPU; “SAWIT”
RHEMSW=HEMSWEXRDFLA100; LRHEMSW=LAGRHEMSW;
RHBSW=HBSWDFLA100; LRHBSW=LAGRHBSW;
LATSW=LAGATSW; LQBSW=LAGQBSW;
LRHDMSW=LAGRHDMSW; LDBSW=LAGDBSW;
“KARET” RHDKR=HDKRDFLA100;
L2RHDKR=LAG2RHDKR; RHEKR=HEKREXRDFLA100;
LRHEKR=LAGRHEKR; PRHEKR=RHEKR-LRHEKR;
LATKR=LAGATKR; LQKR=LAGQKR;
LDDKR=LAGDDKR; LQXKR=LAGQXKR;
“PADI” RHGKG=HGKGDFLA100;
LRHGKG=LAGRHGKG; RHPP=HPPDFLA100;
LRHPP=LAGRHPP; PRHPP=RHPP-LRHPP;
LATPD=LAGATPD;
243
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan LQGKG=LAGQGKG;
RHDBR=LAGHDBRDFLA100; LDGKG=LAGDGKG;
TTDF =TDFHTI + TDFSW + TDFKR + TDFPD; “BLOK DEGRADASI HUTAN”
RHEKL=HEKLEXRDFLA100; RHKHA=HKBHAEXRDFLA100;
LRHKHA=LAGRHKHA; L2QILL=LAG2QILL;
LQILL=LAGQILL; LAHPH=LAGAHPH;
RDR=DRDFLA100; RPSDH=PSDHDFLA100;
LQKBHA=LAGQKBHA; LDKBKG=LAGDKBKG;
LDKBKL=LAGDKBKL; Q=QILL+QKBHA;
SIMULASI KEBIJAKAN FAKTOR EKSTERNAL RMS = RMS1 + 0.2312;
RG = RG 1+0.1796; OILP = OILP1+ 0.07;
OILP = OILP 1+2.0; RFRATE = RFRATE1+0.01;
RFRATE = RFRATE1+0.05;
RUN; PERINTAH SIMULASI
PROC MODEL DATA=OLAH STATS NDEC=2; ENDOGENOUS
R RR UIP EXR RPPJK RG RI RNX RC RY IHK EMP UNEMP LRPPJK
LRG L2RR
LRI LRNX
LRY LR
LRMS LEXR
244
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan LEMP
LRW TDFHTI QKHTI DKHTI RHKHTI
L2RHEPU LAHTI
LQKHTI LRHEPU
LDKHTI LRHKHTI
TDFSW QBSW DBSW RHBSW L3RR
LRHKHTI LATSW
LRHBSW LQBSW
LDBSW TDFKR QKR DDKR QXKR RHDKR
LATKR LQKR
LRR LDDKR
LRHEKR L2RHDKR
LUSGDP LQXKR
LRHDKR TDFPD QGKG DGKG RHGKG
LATPD LQGKG
LRHPP LDGKG
LRHGKG TTDF
TDGHPH QILL QKBHA DKBKG DKBKL RHKHA L2QILL
LRHEMSW LAHPH
LQILL LRHKHA
LQKBHA
245
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan LDKBKG
LDKBKL ; INSTRUMENTS
OILP RW RHBBM RHEPU PRODHTI AHTI PPHTI
RHDMSW RHEMSW PRODSW ATSW RHEKR PRODKR ATKR
RHPP RHDBR PRODPD ATPD RHDKG RHEKL PRODHA AHPH PKUM KPIHPH
RPSDH RDR QXKB ; PARAMETERS
a0 -56417.51 a1 0.750511 a2 -1421.586 b0 -58992.19 b1 0.153017 b2 -156.8430 b3 0.039132
c0 10143.62 c1 0.424322 c2 127.5101 c3 0.266048 d0 74462.03 d1 -1654.394 d2 0.224192 d3 -183634.0 d4 0.042195
e0 170114.6 e1 13.56636 e2 -0.177489 e3 -311.6503 e4 0.069802 f0 12.01211 f1 -1.67E-05 f2 1.357908 f3 0.206645 f4 10.88883 f5 -11.67211
f6 0.112403 g0 -10.80682 g1 1.82E-05 g2 0.963798
h0 274.6091 h1 -84.16786 h2 -0.009667 h3 0.001464 h4 1732.817 h5 0.916711 i0 9.569870 i1 -4.01E-07 i2 3.66E-06 i3 0.850619
j0 6016.618 j1 0.000108 j2 -5.292850 J3 -20.05732 J4 -0.004082 J5 -0.778556 J6 0.000131 J7 -0.000199 J8-0.000330 J9 1237.097 J10 -0.532633
k0 -6381.576 k1 12.86628 k2 -71.09410 k3 3093.358 k4 0.835054 k5 0.543766 l0 3607.390 l1 -2.353228 l2 -274.6870 l3 -0.004142 l4 0.000491 l5 0.025669
l6 0.819260 m0 18.82956 m1 7.96E-06 m2 -1.28E-05 m3 -0.000813 m4 0.936295
n0 609.7858 n1 0.000102 n2 -0.639404 n3 -16.22272 n4 -0.000218 n5 - 1.465558
n6 0.001137 n7 -0.222924 o0 -43931.98 o1 0.045690 o2 -4.365651 o3 4507.690 o4 9.768787 o5 0.031463
p0 -2240.855 p1 -23.33913 p2 -290.5749 p3 -0.010631 p4 1.367105 p5 0.022292 p6 0.656303
q0 81.57648 q1 4.08E-05 q2 0.001926 q3 0.117844 r0 606.9273 r1 0.001077 r2 -8.230076 r3 -9.18E-05 r4 -1.15E-05 r5 6.06E-06
r6 -0.161324 s0 -1304.818 s1 0.002637 s2 -0.774956 s3 3139.824 s4 0.380744 s5 0.074075
t0 106.6144 t1 -0.010171 t2 -5.828949 t3 0.000375 t4 0.846774 u0 2.390472 u1 1.29E-05 u2 -0.015125 u3 0.043709 u4 0.082284
v0 4283.563 v1 7.43E-05 v2 3.674619 v3 -2.365590 v4 0.202657
246
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan w0 -8932.421 w1 0.348219 w2 0.503538 w3 -29.89181 w4 -0.169767 w5 -
0.000891
w6 3.953993 w7 48.56133 w8 -0.175141 x0 -14874.88 x1 0.512634 x2 -60.46712 x3 -0.299394 x4 4012.332 x5
0.953306
y0 27606.61 y1 -0.645931 y2 -49.54460 y3 -2.135224 y4 0.997525 y5 0.011510
y6 0.170233 z0 2081.029 z1 0.177328 z2 -0.026394 z3 0.389236
aa0 15298.41 aa1 0.003540 aa2 -0.009923 aa3 -540.0948 aa4 -0.427461 aa5 -0.001537 aa6 -0.000171 aa7 -1108.177 aa8 -0.138803
bb0 3297.057 bb1 0.000758 bb2 -131.7571 bb3 -2.980244 bb4 -0.021163 bb5 435.8382 bb6 419.6691 bb7 0.398822
cc0 -10537.70 cc1 0.002810 cc2 -209.7087 cc3 -0.494821 cc4 765.9082 cc5 0.369004 cc6 0.276578
dd0 -2237.476 dd1 -0.001864 dd2 16.06732 dd3 -208.4581 dd4 -0.000851 dd5 0.000965 dd6 0.744542
ee0 897.3071 ee1 -0.003402 ee2 5.518416 ee3 -33.40311 ee4 -0.004357 ee5 0.000612 ee6 0.011809 ee7 0.955296
ff0 309719.4 ff1 0.129333 ff2 -15.45845 ff3 0.551386 ; RC = a0 + a1RYD + a2RR ;
RPPJK = b0 + b1RY + b2RR + b3LRPPJK; RG = c0 + c1RPPJK + c2OILP + c3LRG;
RI = d0 + d1L2RR + d2RY + d3KRISIS + d4LRI ; RNX = e0 + e1EXRIHKUSCPI + e2RY + e3OILP + e4LRNX;
R = f0 + f1LRMS + f2IHK-LIHK + f3EXPINF + f4KRISIS + f5FER + f6LR;
IHK = g0 + g1LRY + g2LIHK ; EXR = h0 + h1UIP + h2LRNX + h3RMS + h4KRISIS + h5LEXR ;
EMP = i0 + i1LRW + i2RY + i3LEMP; RY = RC + RI + RG + RNX ;
RR = R-DINF; UIP = RR -RFRATE ;
UNEMP = LF - EMP;
247
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan LRPPJK = LAGRPPJK;
LRG = LAGRG; L2RR=LAG2RR;
LRI = LAGRI; LRNX = LAGRNX;
LRY = LAGRY; LR = LAGR;
LRMS=LAGRMS; LEXR = LAGEXR;
LEMP = LAGEMP; LRW = LAGRW;
TDFHTI = j0 + j1L2RHEPU + j2RHKHTI + j3RR-L2RR + j4RW + j5RHBBM + j6RHEKR + j7RHEMSW + j8RHEKL + j9PPHTI +
j10LAHTI; QKHTI = k0 + k1RHKHTI + k2RR + k3PRODHTI + k4AHTI +
k5LQKHTI; DKHTI = l0 + l1RHKHTI + l2RR + l3RW + l4RHEPU-LRHEPU +
l5RY-LRY + l6LDKHTI; RHKHTI = m0 + m1RHEPU-LRHEPU + m2RHKHA + m3LQKHTI +
m4LRHKHTI; DKHTI = QKHTI;
TDFSW = n0 + n1RHEMSW + n2RHBSW + n3L3RR + n4RW + n5LRHKHTI + n6LRHKHA + n7LATSW ;
QBSW = o0 + o1LRHBSW + o2RR + o3PRODSW + o4ATSW + o5LQBSW ;
DBSW = p0 + p1RHBSW + p2RR + p3RW + p4RHDMSW + p5RY + p6LDBSW;
RHBSW = q0 + q1RHEMSW + q2DBSW + q3LRHBSW; QBSW = DBSW;
L3RR = LAG3RR; LRHKHTI = LAGRHKHTI;
LATSW=LAGATSW; LRHBSW=LAGRHBSW;
LQBSW=LAGQBSW; LDBSW = LAGDBSW;
TDFKR = r0 + r1RHDKR + r2RR + r3RHKHA + r4RHEMSW + r5RHEKR + r6LATKR ;
QKR = s0 + s1RHDKR + s2RR + s3PRODKR + s4ATKR + s5LQKR; DDKR = t0 + t1RHDKR + t2LRR + t3RY-LRY + t4LDDKR;
QXKR =u0 + u1LRHEKR + u2L2RHDKR + u3LUSGDP + u4LQXKR;
248
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan RHDKR = v0 + v1RHEKR-LRHEKR + v2QXKR + v3QKR +
v4LRHDKR; QKR = DDKR + QXKR;
LATKR = LAGATKR; LQKR = LAGQKR;
LRR=LAGRR; LDDKR = LAGDDKR;
LRHEKR =LAGRHEKR; L2RHDKR = LAG2RHDKR;
LUSGDP =LAGUSGDP; LQXKR = LAGQXKR;
LRHDKR=LAGRHDKR; TDFPD = w0 + w1RHGKG + w2RHPP + w3RR + w4RHBBM +
w5RHKHA + w6RHKHTI + w7POP + w8LATPD; QGKG = x0 + x1RHGKG + x2RR + x3RHBBM + x4PRODPD +
x5LQGKG; DGKG = y0 + y1LRHPP + y2RR + y3RHBBM + y4RHDBR + y5RY
+ y6LDGKG; RHGKG = z0 + z1RHPP-LRHPP + z2QGKG + z3LRHGKG;
QGKG = DGKG; TTDF = TDFHTI + TDFSW + TDFKR + TDFPD;
TDGHPH = aa0 + aa1RHEKL + aa2RHKHA + aa3RR + aa4L2QILL + aa5LRHEMSW + aa6LRHEKR + aa7KPIHPH + aa8LAHPH;
QILL = bb0 + bb1RHKHA + bb2RR + bb3RHBBM + bb4RDR + bb5PRODHA + bb6PKUM + bb7LQILL ;
QKBHA = cc0 + cc1LRHKHA + cc2LRR + cc3RPSDH + cc4PRODHA + cc5AHPH + cc6LQKBHA;
DKBKG = dd0 + dd1RHKHA + dd2RHKHTI + dd3RR + dd4RW + dd5RY + dd6LDKBKG;
DKBKL = ee0 + ee1RHKHA + ee2RHKHTI + ee3 LRR + ee4RW + ee5RHEKL + ee6RY-LRY + ee7LDKBKL;
RHKHA = ff0 + ff1RHEKL + ff2QILL+QKBHA + ff3LRHKHA; QKBHA + QILL = DKBKG + DKBKL + QXKB ;
L2QILL = LAG2QILL; LRHEMSW = LAGRHEMSW;
LAHPH = LAGAHPH; LQILL = LAGQILL;
LRHKHA = LAGRHKHA; LQKBHA = LAGQKBHA;
249
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan LDKBKG = LAGDKBKG;
LDKBKL = LAGDKBKL; RANGE TAHUN = 1983 TO 2008;
SOLVE R RR UIP EXR RPPJK RG RI RNX RC RY IHK EMP UNEMP
LRPPJK LRG
L2RR LRI
LRNX LRY
LR LRMS
LEXR LEMP
LRW TDFHTI QKHTI DKHTI RHKHTI
L2RHEPU LAHTI
LQKHTI LRHEPU
LDKHTI LRHKHTI
TDFSW QBSW DBSW RHBSW L3RR
LRHKHTI LATSW
LRHBSW LQBSW
LDBSW TDFKR QKR DDKR QXKR RHDKR
LATKR LQKR
LRR LDDKR
LRHEKR L2RHDKR
LUSGDP LQXKR
LRHDKR
250
Lampiran 7. Lanjutan TDFPD QGKG DGKG RHGKG
LATPD LQGKG
LRHPP LDGKG
LRHGKG TTDF
TDGHPH QILL QKBHA DKBKG DKBKL RHKHA L2QILL
LRHEMSW LAHPH
LQILL LRHKHA
LQKBHA LDKBKG
LDKBKL OUTPREDICT ; RUN
;
251
Lampiran 8. Hasil Simulasi Model Ekonomi Deforestasi dan Degradasi Hutan Alam Menggunakan Metode Newton, Prosedur SYSNLIN,
Software SAS versi 9.0
1. Penawaran Uang meningkat 23.12
The MODEL Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation
Solution Range TAHUN = 1983 To 2008 Descriptive Statistics
Actual Predicted Variable
N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev R
26 26 14.1908 11.0892 12.5592 4.5055 RR
26 26 2.9010 5.5753 1.2694 14.0715 UIP
26 26 0.7466 5.1916 ‐0.8849 14.2696 EXR
26 26 6622.7 4944.0 8084.1 5474.9 REXR
26 26 6956.0 7313.7 8178.8 8085.1 RPPJK
26 26 129891 66351.2 133634 73886.8 RG
26 26 98172.8 32781.6 100925 35248.0 RI
26 26 321683 134461 339700 126681 RNX
26 26 33849.9 74842.4 45514.9 58335.3 RC
26 26 742744 301174 742242 284588 RY
26 26 1196450 440139 1228382 462805 IHK
26 26 75.2057 60.2377 75.6801 60.4445 EMP
26 26 82.2600 11.9070 82.7487 12.1169 UNEMP
26 26 5.2146 3.4952 4.7573 3.2913 LRC
26 26 706578 292612 704345 271627 LRPPJK
26 26 120762 62560.2 124250 70446.0 LRI
26 26 303421 123769 323133 122282 LRG
26 26 93787.1 29496.4 96492.2 32483.5 LRNX
26 26 32977.7 75118.0 43148.4 58934.4 LRY
26 26 1136763 419942 1167119 444652 LR
26 26 14.5281 11.0431 12.7825 4.5931 LRMS
26 26 501474 256026 617415 315219 LEXR
26 26 6279.7 5031.9 7635.5 5581.6 LEMP
26 26 80.5389 12.0893 80.9865 12.2906 LRW
26 26 513077 174259 513077 174259 LDINF
26 26 11.1214 13.7754 11.1214 13.7754 LOILP
26 26 76.1820 75.5203 76.1820 75.5203 TDFHTI
26 26 275.0 490.5 291.2 628.4 QKHTI
26 26 4079.5 7167.2 4202.5 7692.3 DKHTI
26 26 4079.5 7167.2 4202.5 7692.3 RHKHTI
26 26 350.8 155.3 346.0 111.9 L2RHEPU
26 26 3928551 1418815 3928551 1418815 LRHEPU
26 26 3926454 1421881 3926454 1421881 L2RR
26 26 3.5692 5.3428 1.5726 14.0841 LAHTI
26 26 2291.7 2617.0 2291.7 2617.0 LQKHTI
26 26 3221.1 6161.2 3347.0 6789.8 LDKHTI
26 26 3221.1 6161.2 3347.0 6789.8 TDFSW
26 26 270.5 256.5 252.6 247.7 QBSW
26 26 28600.5 23830.0 31531.9 25465.4 DBSW
26 26 28600.5 23830.0 31531.9 25465.4 RHBSW
26 26 329.6 85.0738 334.9 67.2981 L3RR
26 26 3.6736 5.2173 1.6446 14.0646 LRHKHTI
26 26 366.7 152.1 361.5 108.9 LRHKHA
26 26 693551 342976 649488 262472 LATSW
26 26 2704.6 2097.1 2704.6 2097.1 L2RHBSW
26 26 311.7 78.0536 321.9 69.4249 LRR
26 26 3.4067 5.3912 1.6611 14.1076 LQBSW
26 26 25689.2 21877.9 28488.2 23716.1 LDBSW
26 26 25689.2 21877.9 28488.2 23716.1 TDFKR
26 26 36.1652 77.6525 52.3754 114.6 QKR
26 26 1602.9 508.6 1656.3 599.7
252
Lampiran 8. Lanjutan
DDKR 26 26 161.6 111.4 253.5 163.9
QXKR 26 26 1441.3 422.8 1402.8 474.1
RHDKR 26 26 7255.1 1339.5 6986.7 660.3
LATKR 26 26 3195.1 316.1 3195.1 316.1
LQKR 26 26 1531.7 469.5 1590.0 583.6
LDDKR 26 26 147.3 92.7519 241.6 163.6
LQXKR 26 26 1384.3 404.2 1348.3 457.8
LRHEKR 26 26 11210039 7149536 11210039 7149536
TDFPD 26 26 171.3 370.7 226.9 477.2
QGKG 26 26 47989.9 6226.9 48758.2 6251.2
DGKG 26 26 47989.9 6226.9 48758.2 6251.2
RHGKG 26 26 1343.0 461.6 1327.1 321.6
LATPD 26 26 10558.2 1395.8 10558.2 1395.8
LQGKG 26 26 46962.6 6313.0 47776.2 6552.0
LDGKG 26 26 46962.6 6313.0 47776.2 6552.0
TTDF 26 26 753.0 683.0 823.1 1083.9
TDGHPH 26 26 ‐1018.2 3801.4 77.9329 6453.1
QILL 26 26 10540.1 3904.1 10888.3 3856.2
QKBHA 26 26 15355.6 9316.1 15813.7 8749.2
DKBKG 26 26 9965.3 7292.3 11302.6 4432.7
DKBKL 26 26 15658.7 5149.8 15840.3 3284.9
RHKHA 26 26 715581 340166 678613 272757
L2QILL 26 26 10818.3 3484.2 11174.1 3388.2
LRHEMSW 26 26 3772992 1196814 3772992 1196814
LAHPH 26 26 47879.0 13194.2 47879.0 13194.2
LQILL 26 26 10719.1 3687.4 11103.0 3539.2
LQKBHA 26 26 15692.0 9067.9 16256.7 8294.2
LDKBKG 26 26 10448.9 7092.4 11758.5 4003.2
LDKBKL 26 26 15555.0 5345.2 15564.3 3874.9
2. Pengeluaran Pemerintah meningkat 17.96
The MODEL Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation
Solution Range TAHUN = 1983 To 2008 Descriptive Statistics
Actual Predicted Variable
N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev R
26 26 14.1908 11.0892 14.4524 4.7405 RR
26 26 2.9010 5.5753 3.1626 13.9737 UIP
26 26 0.7466 5.1916 1.0083 14.2434 EXR
26 26 6622.7 4944.0 6679.8 4793.1 REXR
26 26 6956.0 7313.7 6824.4 6909.9 RPPJK
26 26 129891 66351.2 131612 70987.1 RI
26 26 321683 134461 334290 123748 RNX
26 26 33849.9 74842.4 27938.5 49573.8 RC
26 26 742744 301174 739551 283778 RY
26 26 1196450 440139 1217584 445418 IHK
26 26 75.2057 60.2377 75.5007 60.0984 EMP
26 26 82.2600 11.9070 82.6235 11.8285 UNEMP
26 26 5.2146 3.4952 4.8825 3.5735 LRC
26 26 706578 292612 701808 270744 LRPPJK
26 26 120762 62560.2 122396 67499.1 LRI
26 26 303421 123769 318109 119319 LRG
26 26 93787.1 29496.4 110631 34793.9 LRNX
26 26 32977.7 75118.0 27137.8 49872.4 LRY
26 26 1136763 419942 1157262 427102 LR
26 26 14.5281 11.0431 14.5670 4.7728 LRMS
26 26 501474 256026 501474 256026 LEXR
26 26 6279.7 5031.9 6303.7 4861.1 LEMP
26 26 80.5389 12.0893 80.8858 12.0348
253
Lampiran 8. Lanjutan
LRW 26 26 513077 174259 513077 174259
LDINF 26 26 11.1214 13.7754 11.1214 13.7754
LOILP 26 26 76.1820 75.5203 76.1820 75.5203
TDFHTI 26 26 275.0 490.5 290.8 624.6
QKHTI 26 26 4079.5 7167.2 3907.4 7623.5
DKHTI 26 26 4079.5 7167.2 3907.4 7623.5
RHKHTI 26 26 350.8 155.3 345.2 112.4
L2RHEPU 26 26 3928551 1418815 3928551 1418815
LRHEPU 26 26 3926454 1421881 3926454 1421881
L2RR 26 26 3.5692 5.3428 3.2510 13.9440
LAHTI 26 26 2291.7 2617.0 2291.7 2617.0
LQKHTI 26 26 3221.1 6161.2 3069.3 6723.5
LDKHTI 26 26 3221.1 6161.2 3069.3 6723.5
TDFSW 26 26 270.5 256.5 257.2 247.5
QBSW 26 26 28600.5 23830.0 29721.5 24048.5
DBSW 26 26 28600.5 23830.0 29721.5 24048.5
RHBSW 26 26 329.6 85.0738 331.4 64.8871
L3RR 26 26 3.6736 5.2173 3.2277 13.9511
LRHKHTI 26 26 366.7 152.1 360.8 109.4
LRHKHA 26 26 693551 342976 673284 271217
LATSW 26 26 2704.6 2097.1 2704.6 2097.1
L2RHBSW 26 26 311.7 78.0536 319.0 67.0545
LRR 26 26 3.4067 5.3912 3.4456 13.9910
LQBSW 26 26 25689.2 21877.9 26810.6 22270.0
LDBSW 26 26 25689.2 21877.9 26810.6 22270.0
TDFKR 26 26 36.1652 77.6525 34.6236 116.2
QKR 26 26 1602.9 508.6 1595.5 562.4
DDKR 26 26 161.6 111.4 194.7 140.9
QXKR 26 26 1441.3 422.8 1400.8 472.6
RHDKR 26 26 7255.1 1339.5 7123.1 707.8
LATKR 26 26 3195.1 316.1 3195.1 316.1
LQKR 26 26 1531.7 469.5 1533.1 545.1
LDDKR 26 26 147.3 92.7519 186.6 140.1
LQXKR 26 26 1384.3 404.2 1346.5 456.3
LRHEKR 26 26 11210039 7149536 11210039 7149536
TDFPD 26 26 171.3 370.7 147.3 472.0
QGKG 26 26 47989.9 6226.9 48499.4 5942.4
DGKG 26 26 47989.9 6226.9 48499.4 5942.4
RHGKG 26 26 1343.0 461.6 1333.9 314.0
LATPD 26 26 10558.2 1395.8 10558.2 1395.8
LQGKG 26 26 46962.6 6313.0 47537.0 6252.8
LDGKG 26 26 46962.6 6313.0 47537.0 6252.8
TTDF 26 26 753.0 683.0 729.9 1077.2
TDGHPH 26 26 ‐1018.2 3801.4 ‐1055.2 6475.6
QILL 26 26 10540.1 3904.1 10519.3 3860.0
QKBHA 26 26 15355.6 9316.1 15398.3 8782.7
DKBKG 26 26 9965.3 7292.3 9759.7 4960.1
DKBKL 26 26 15658.7 5149.8 14508.3 3002.5
RHKHA 26 26 715581 340166 703860 281028
L2QILL 26 26 10818.3 3484.2 10846.8 3321.3
LRHEMSW 26 26 3772992 1196814 3772992 1196814
LAHPH 26 26 47879.0 13194.2 47879.0 13194.2
LQILL 26 26 10719.1 3687.4 10755.4 3516.0
LQKBHA 26 26 15692.0 9067.9 15865.9 8308.4
LDKBKG 26 26 10448.9 7092.4 10309.4 4533.3
LDKBKL 26 26 15555.0 5345.2 14338.2 3413.8
254
Lampiran 8. Lanjutan 3. Harga Minyak Mentah Dunia meningkat 7.0
The MODEL Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation
Solution Range TAHUN = 1983 To 2008 Descriptive Statistics
Actual Predicted Variable
N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev R
26 26 14.1908 11.0892 14.0260 4.5902 RR
26 26 2.9010 5.5753 2.7362 13.8879 UIP
26 26 0.7466 5.1916 0.5818 14.1424 EXR
26 26 6622.7 4944.0 6804.5 4768.7 REXR
26 26 6956.0 7313.7 6889.8 6925.6 RPPJK
26 26 129891 66351.2 129018 70586.8 RG
26 26 98172.8 32781.6 99128.1 33027.1 RI
26 26 321683 134461 330989 122377 RNX
26 26 33849.9 74842.4 30529.1 49511.4 RC
26 26 742744 301174 740157 283884 RY
26 26 1196450 440139 1200804 442588 IHK
26 26 75.2057 60.2377 75.2192 60.0763 EMP
26 26 82.2600 11.9070 82.3233 11.7480 UNEMP
26 26 5.2146 3.4952 5.1826 3.6286 LRC
26 26 706578 292612 702366 270831 LRPPJK
26 26 120762 62560.2 120004 67176.8 LRI
26 26 303421 123769 315070 118004 LRG
26 26 93787.1 29496.4 94889.9 30315.7 LRNX
26 26 32977.7 75118.0 29466.0 49887.0 LRY
26 26 1136763 419942 1141792 424691 LR
26 26 14.5281 11.0431 14.1745 4.6323 LRMS
26 26 501474 256026 501474 256026 LEXR
26 26 6279.7 5031.9 6425.1 4844.1 LEMP
26 26 80.5389 12.0893 80.6052 11.9478 LRW
26 26 513077 174259 513077 174259 LDINF
26 26 11.1214 13.7754 11.1214 13.7754 LOILP
26 26 76.1820 75.5203 81.5148 80.8068 TDFHTI
26 26 275.0 490.5 291.3 624.5 QKHTI
26 26 4079.5 7167.2 3972.9 7624.6 DKHTI
26 26 4079.5 7167.2 3972.9 7624.6 RHKHTI
26 26 350.8 155.3 345.4 112.3 L2RHEPU
26 26 3928551 1418815 3928551 1418815 LRHEPU
26 26 3926454 1421881 3926454 1421881 L2RR
26 26 3.5692 5.3428 2.8949 13.8695 LAHTI
26 26 2291.7 2617.0 2291.7 2617.0 LQKHTI
26 26 3221.1 6161.2 3129.8 6718.8 LDKHTI
26 26 3221.1 6161.2 3129.8 6718.8 TDFSW
26 26 270.5 256.5 257.3 247.6 QBSW
26 26 28600.5 23830.0 29151.9 24007.8 DBSW
26 26 28600.5 23830.0 29151.9 24007.8 RHBSW
26 26 329.6 85.0738 330.3 64.9194 L3RR
26 26 3.6736 5.2173 2.8967 13.8689 LRHKHTI
26 26 366.7 152.1 361.0 109.3 LRHKHA
26 26 693551 342976 668237 270522 LATSW
26 26 2704.6 2097.1 2704.6 2097.1 L2RHBSW
26 26 311.7 78.0536 318.0 67.0781 LRR
26 26 3.4067 5.3912 3.0531 13.9068 LQBSW
26 26 25689.2 21877.9 26284.9 22256.9 LDBSW
26 26 25689.2 21877.9 26284.9 22256.9 TDFKR
26 26 36.1652 77.6525 38.6076 115.5 QKR
26 26 1602.9 508.6 1606.6 567.2 DDKR
26 26 161.6 111.4 205.4 139.5 QXKR
26 26 1441.3 422.8 1401.2 472.9 RHDKR
26 26 7255.1 1339.5 7098.4 696.5
255
Lampiran 8. Lanjutan
LATKR 26 26 3195.1 316.1 3195.1 316.1
LQKR 26 26 1531.7 469.5 1543.6 550.5
LDDKR 26 26 147.3 92.7519 196.8 138.9
LQXKR 26 26 1384.3 404.2 1346.9 456.6
LRHEKR 26 26 11210039 7149536 11210039 7149536
TDFPD 26 26 171.3 370.7 167.5 465.8
QGKG 26 26 47989.9 6226.9 48295.4 5935.0
DGKG 26 26 47989.9 6226.9 48295.4 5935.0
RHGKG 26 26 1343.0 461.6 1339.3 314.2
LATPD 26 26 10558.2 1395.8 10558.2 1395.8
LQGKG 26 26 46962.6 6313.0 47348.9 6242.5
LDGKG 26 26 46962.6 6313.0 47348.9 6242.5
TTDF 26 26 753.0 683.0 754.6 1075.0
TDGHPH 26 26 ‐1018.2 3801.4 ‐800.2 6445.5
QILL 26 26 10540.1 3904.1 10601.4 3834.4
QKBHA 26 26 15355.6 9316.1 15489.2 8812.7
DKBKG 26 26 9965.3 7292.3 10042.8 4866.7
DKBKL 26 26 15658.7 5149.8 14685.5 3047.9
RHKHA 26 26 715581 340166 698401 280217
L2QILL 26 26 10818.3 3484.2 10915.8 3317.5
LRHEMSW 26 26 3772992 1196814 3772992 1196814
LAHPH 26 26 47879.0 13194.2 47879.0 13194.2
LQILL 26 26 10719.1 3687.4 10830.8 3498.7
LQKBHA 26 26 15692.0 9067.9 15948.4 8350.2
LDKBKG 26 26 10448.9 7092.4 10574.5 4440.8
LDKBKL 26 26 15555.0 5345.2 14505.7 3477.9
4. Lompatan Kenaikan Harga Minyak Mentah Dunia sebesar 200.0
The MODEL Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation
Solution Range TAHUN = 1983 To 2008 Descriptive Statistics
Actual Predicted Variable
N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev R
26 26 14.1908 11.0892 13.9900 4.6446 RR
26 26 2.9010 5.5753 2.7002 13.7894 UIP
26 26 0.7466 5.1916 0.5458 14.1102 EXR
26 26 6622.7 4944.0 9135.3 4105.3 REXR
26 26 6956.0 7313.7 8234.3 7053.2 RPPJK
26 26 129891 66351.2 128850 73058.1 RG
26 26 98172.8 32781.6 120948 26848.6 RI
26 26 321683 134461 330818 124030 RNX
26 26 33849.9 74842.4 7745.3 76128.6 RC
26 26 742744 301174 740208 283231 RY
26 26 1196450 440139 1199720 458526 IHK
26 26 75.2057 60.2377 75.1962 60.3202 EMP
26 26 82.2600 11.9070 82.2478 12.0566 UNEMP
26 26 5.2146 3.4952 5.2581 3.3129 LRC
26 26 706578 292612 702427 270177 LRPPJK
26 26 120762 62560.2 119808 69685.2 LRI
26 26 303421 123769 314869 119628 LRG
26 26 93787.1 29496.4 116195 25986.0 LRNX
26 26 32977.7 75118.0 7038.9 76118.1 LRY
26 26 1136763 419942 1140530 440734 LR
26 26 14.5281 11.0431 14.1316 4.6885 LRMS
26 26 501474 256026 501474 256026 LEXR
26 26 6279.7 5031.9 8727.9 4391.7 LEMP
26 26 80.5389 12.0893 80.5210 12.2242 LRW
26 26 513077 174259 513077 174259 LDINF
26 26 11.1214 13.7754 11.1214 13.7754
256
Lampiran 8. Lanjutan
LOILP 26 26 76.1820 75.5203 228.5 226.6
TDFHTI 26 26 275.0 490.5 290.6 626.0
QKHTI 26 26 4079.5 7167.2 3982.8 7572.8
DKHTI 26 26 4079.5 7167.2 3982.8 7572.8
RHKHTI 26 26 350.8 155.3 345.5 112.4
L2RHEPU 26 26 3928551 1418815 3928551 1418815
LRHEPU 26 26 3926454 1421881 3926454 1421881
L2RR 26 26 3.5692 5.3428 2.8461 13.7705
LAHTI 26 26 2291.7 2617.0 2291.7 2617.0
LQKHTI 26 26 3221.1 6161.2 3141.1 6665.4
LDKHTI 26 26 3221.1 6161.2 3141.1 6665.4
TDFSW 26 26 270.5 256.5 257.1 248.7
QBSW 26 26 28600.5 23830.0 29102.4 24457.8
DBSW 26 26 28600.5 23830.0 29102.4 24457.8
RHBSW 26 26 329.6 85.0738 330.2 66.0651
L3RR 26 26 3.6736 5.2173 2.8414 13.7719
LRHKHTI 26 26 366.7 152.1 361.1 109.4
LRHKHA 26 26 693551 342976 667353 275909
LATSW 26 26 2704.6 2097.1 2704.6 2097.1
L2RHBSW 26 26 311.7 78.0536 317.9 68.1261
LRR 26 26 3.4067 5.3912 3.0102 13.8110
LQBSW 26 26 25689.2 21877.9 26226.9 22714.7
LDBSW 26 26 25689.2 21877.9 26226.9 22714.7
TDFKR 26 26 36.1652 77.6525 38.9584 117.1
QKR 26 26 1602.9 508.6 1612.9 557.3
DDKR 26 26 161.6 111.4 211.4 128.8
QXKR 26 26 1441.3 422.8 1401.5 472.7
RHDKR 26 26 7255.1 1339.5 7084.4 700.3
LATKR 26 26 3195.1 316.1 3195.1 316.1
LQKR 26 26 1531.7 469.5 1550.5 542.2
LDDKR 26 26 147.3 92.7519 203.4 129.1
LQXKR 26 26 1384.3 404.2 1347.2 456.5
LRHEKR 26 26 11210039 7149536 11210039 7149536
TDFPD 26 26 171.3 370.7 169.7 454.6
QGKG 26 26 47989.9 6226.9 48282.0 6163.8
DGKG 26 26 47989.9 6226.9 48282.0 6163.8
RHGKG 26 26 1343.0 461.6 1339.7 320.5
LATPD 26 26 10558.2 1395.8 10558.2 1395.8
LQGKG 26 26 46962.6 6313.0 47333.3 6454.4
LDGKG 26 26 46962.6 6313.0 47333.3 6454.4
TTDF 26 26 753.0 683.0 756.3 1073.4
TDGHPH 26 26 ‐1018.2 3801.4 ‐777.8 6459.0
QILL 26 26 10540.1 3904.1 10609.3 3800.9
QKBHA 26 26 15355.6 9316.1 15498.7 8880.2
DKBKG 26 26 9965.3 7292.3 10106.2 5101.3
DKBKL 26 26 15658.7 5149.8 14923.4 3423.1
RHKHA 26 26 715581 340166 697646 285737
L2QILL 26 26 10818.3 3484.2 10926.3 3270.9
LRHEMSW 26 26 3772992 1196814 3772992 1196814
LAHPH 26 26 47879.0 13194.2 47879.0 13194.2
LQILL 26 26 10719.1 3687.4 10840.0 3458.2
LQKBHA 26 26 15692.0 9067.9 15959.0 8418.7
LDKBKG 26 26 10448.9 7092.4 10647.1 4666.9
LDKBKL 26 26 15555.0 5345.2 14747.8 3816.6
257
Lampiran 8. Lanjutan 5. Suku Bunga Rujukan Amerika Serikat Meningkat 1
The MODEL Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation
Solution Range TAHUN = 1983 To 2008 Descriptive Statistics
Actual Predicted Variable
N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev R
26 26 14.1908 11.0892 14.0299 4.5902 RR
26 26 2.9010 5.5753 2.7400 13.8920 UIP
26 26 0.7466 5.1916 0.5641 14.1484 EXR
26 26 6622.7 4944.0 6730.6 4794.4 REXR
26 26 6956.0 7313.7 6847.1 6922.4 RPPJK
26 26 129891 66351.2 129038 70501.5 RG
26 26 98172.8 32781.6 98345.0 33363.6 RI
26 26 321683 134461 331013 122319 RNX
26 26 33849.9 74842.4 31426.3 48853.4 RC
26 26 742744 301174 740152 283907 RY
26 26 1196450 440139 1200936 442039 IHK
26 26 75.2057 60.2377 75.2217 60.0678 EMP
26 26 82.2600 11.9070 82.3279 11.7377 UNEMP
26 26 5.2146 3.4952 5.1780 3.6392 LRC
26 26 706578 292612 702360 270854 LRPPJK
26 26 120762 62560.2 120025 67091.9 LRI
26 26 303421 123769 315095 117949 LRG
26 26 93787.1 29496.4 94125.3 30617.9 LRNX
26 26 32977.7 75118.0 30349.3 49255.0 LRY
26 26 1136763 419942 1141930 424150 LR
26 26 14.5281 11.0431 14.1785 4.6323 LRMS
26 26 501474 256026 501474 256026 LEXR
26 26 6279.7 5031.9 6352.2 4864.4 LEMP
26 26 80.5389 12.0893 80.6099 11.9388 LRW
26 26 513077 174259 513077 174259 LDINF
26 26 11.1214 13.7754 11.1214 13.7754 LOILP
26 26 76.1820 75.5203 76.1820 75.5203 TDFHTI
26 26 275.0 490.5 291.3 624.5 QKHTI
26 26 4079.5 7167.2 3972.1 7626.4 DKHTI
26 26 4079.5 7167.2 3972.1 7626.4 RHKHTI
26 26 350.8 155.3 345.4 112.3 L2RHEPU
26 26 3928551 1418815 3928551 1418815 LRHEPU
26 26 3926454 1421881 3926454 1421881 L2RR
26 26 3.5692 5.3428 2.8990 13.8735 LAHTI
26 26 2291.7 2617.0 2291.7 2617.0 LQKHTI
26 26 3221.1 6161.2 3129.0 6720.7 LDKHTI
26 26 3221.1 6161.2 3129.0 6720.7 TDFSW
26 26 270.5 256.5 257.3 247.5 QBSW
26 26 28600.5 23830.0 29157.0 23992.3 DBSW
26 26 28600.5 23830.0 29157.0 23992.3 RHBSW
26 26 329.6 85.0738 330.3 64.8795 L3RR
26 26 3.6736 5.2173 2.9011 13.8729 LRHKHTI
26 26 366.7 152.1 361.0 109.3 LRHKHA
26 26 693551 342976 668305 270343 LATSW
26 26 2704.6 2097.1 2704.6 2097.1 L2RHBSW
26 26 311.7 78.0536 318.0 67.0426 LRR
26 26 3.4067 5.3912 3.0571 13.9107 LQBSW
26 26 25689.2 21877.9 26290.2 22241.4 LDBSW
26 26 25689.2 21877.9 26290.2 22241.4 TDFKR
26 26 36.1652 77.6525 38.5709 115.5 QKR
26 26 1602.9 508.6 1606.3 567.5 DDKR
26 26 161.6 111.4 205.1 139.9 QXKR
26 26 1441.3 422.8 1401.2 472.9
258
Lampiran 8. Lanjutan
RHDKR 26 26 7255.1 1339.5 7099.0 696.5
LATKR 26 26 3195.1 316.1 3195.1 316.1
LQKR 26 26 1531.7 469.5 1543.3 550.7
LDDKR 26 26 147.3 92.7519 196.5 139.3
LQXKR 26 26 1384.3 404.2 1346.8 456.6
LRHEKR 26 26 11210039 7149536 11210039 7149536
TDFPD 26 26 171.3 370.7 167.3 466.3
QGKG 26 26 47989.9 6226.9 48297.0 5927.1
DGKG 26 26 47989.9 6226.9 48297.0 5927.1
RHGKG 26 26 1343.0 461.6 1339.3 314.0
LATPD 26 26 10558.2 1395.8 10558.2 1395.8
LQGKG 26 26 46962.6 6313.0 47350.6 6235.3
LDGKG 26 26 46962.6 6313.0 47350.6 6235.3
TTDF 26 26 753.0 683.0 754.4 1075.1
TDGHPH 26 26 ‐1018.2 3801.4 ‐802.5 6445.6
QILL 26 26 10540.1 3904.1 10600.7 3835.5
QKBHA 26 26 15355.6 9316.1 15488.3 8810.4
DKBKG 26 26 9965.3 7292.3 10038.7 4859.2
DKBKL 26 26 15658.7 5149.8 14675.9 3034.8
RHKHA 26 26 715581 340166 698465 280030
L2QILL 26 26 10818.3 3484.2 10914.9 3319.1
LRHEMSW 26 26 3772992 1196814 3772992 1196814
LAHPH 26 26 47879.0 13194.2 47879.0 13194.2
LQILL 26 26 10719.1 3687.4 10830.0 3500.1
LQKBHA 26 26 15692.0 9067.9 15947.4 8347.9
LDKBKG 26 26 10448.9 7092.4 10570.1 4433.7
LDKBKL 26 26 15555.0 5345.2 14496.1 3465.9
6. Kenaikan Suku Bunga Rujukan Amerika Serikat Rataan per tahun sebesar 5.0
The MODEL Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation
Solution Range TAHUN = 1983 To 2008 Descriptive Statistics
Actual Predicted Variable
N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev R
26 26 14.1908 11.0892 14.0402 4.5887 RR
26 26 2.9010 5.5753 2.7504 13.8911 UIP
26 26 0.7466 5.1916 0.4883 14.1647 EXR
26 26 6622.7 4944.0 6772.5 4783.8 RPPJK
26 26 129891 66351.2 129097 70502.6 RG
26 26 98172.8 32781.6 98378.6 33363.0 RI
26 26 321683 134461 331085 122301 RNX
26 26 33849.9 74842.4 31713.8 48949.3 RC
26 26 742744 301174 740137 283904 RY
26 26 1196450 440139 1201314 442045 IHK
26 26 75.2057 60.2377 75.2285 60.0686 EMP
26 26 82.2600 11.9070 82.3353 11.7410 UNEMP
26 26 5.2146 3.4952 5.1706 3.6359 LRC
26 26 706578 292612 702346 270851 LRPPJK
26 26 120762 62560.2 120083 67099.4 LRI
26 26 303421 123769 315165 117939 LRG
26 26 93787.1 29496.4 94158.3 30620.4 LRNX
26 26 32977.7 75118.0 30633.1 49357.0 LRY
26 26 1136763 419942 1142303 424200 LR
26 26 14.5281 11.0431 14.1885 4.6305 LRMS
26 26 501474 256026 501474 256026 LEXR
26 26 6279.7 5031.9 6393.9 4857.2 LEMP
26 26 80.5389 12.0893 80.6171 11.9426 LRW
26 26 513077 174259 513077 174259
259
Lampiran 8. Lanjutan
LDINF 26 26 11.1214 13.7754 11.1214 13.7754
LOILP 26 26 76.1820 75.5203 76.1820 75.5203
TDFHTI 26 26 275.0 490.5 291.4 624.5
QKHTI 26 26 4079.5 7167.2 3970.4 7626.1
DKHTI 26 26 4079.5 7167.2 3970.4 7626.1
RHKHTI 26 26 350.8 155.3 345.4 112.3
L2RHEPU 26 26 3928551 1418815 3928551 1418815
LRHEPU 26 26 3926454 1421881 3926454 1421881
L2RR 26 26 3.5692 5.3428 2.9088 13.8725
LAHTI 26 26 2291.7 2617.0 2291.7 2617.0
LQKHTI 26 26 3221.1 6161.2 3127.4 6720.3
LDKHTI 26 26 3221.1 6161.2 3127.4 6720.3
TDFSW 26 26 270.5 256.5 257.3 247.5
QBSW 26 26 28600.5 23830.0 29170.5 23993.4
DBSW 26 26 28600.5 23830.0 29170.5 23993.4
RHBSW 26 26 329.6 85.0738 330.4 64.8837
L3RR 26 26 3.6736 5.2173 2.9108 13.8719
LRHKHTI 26 26 366.7 152.1 361.0 109.3
LRHKHA 26 26 693551 342976 668447 270391
LATSW 26 26 2704.6 2097.1 2704.6 2097.1
L2RHBSW 26 26 311.7 78.0536 318.1 67.0500
LRR 26 26 3.4067 5.3912 3.0671 13.9096
LQBSW 26 26 25689.2 21877.9 26303.4 22243.7
LDBSW 26 26 25689.2 21877.9 26303.4 22243.7
TDFKR 26 26 36.1652 77.6525 38.4730 115.5
QKR 26 26 1602.9 508.6 1606.0 567.2
DDKR 26 26 161.6 111.4 204.8 139.7
QXKR 26 26 1441.3 422.8 1401.2 472.9
RHDKR 26 26 7255.1 1339.5 7099.7 696.9
LATKR 26 26 3195.1 316.1 3195.1 316.1
LQKR 26 26 1531.7 469.5 1543.0 550.5
LDDKR 26 26 147.3 92.7519 196.2 139.1
LQXKR 26 26 1384.3 404.2 1346.8 456.6
LRHEKR 26 26 11210039 7149536 11210039 7149536
TDFPD 26 26 171.3 370.7 166.8 466.1
QGKG 26 26 47989.9 6226.9 48301.6 5927.7
DGKG 26 26 47989.9 6226.9 48301.6 5927.7
RHGKG 26 26 1343.0 461.6 1339.1 314.0
LATPD 26 26 10558.2 1395.8 10558.2 1395.8
LQGKG 26 26 46962.6 6313.0 47355.1 6236.5
LDGKG 26 26 46962.6 6313.0 47355.1 6236.5
TTDF 26 26 753.0 683.0 753.8 1075.1
TDGHPH 26 26 ‐1018.2 3801.4 ‐808.7 6445.5
QILL 26 26 10540.1 3904.1 10598.6 3834.7
QKBHA 26 26 15355.6 9316.1 15486.0 8810.8
DKBKG 26 26 9965.3 7292.3 10031.3 4861.4
DKBKL 26 26 15658.7 5149.8 14671.6 3034.7
RHKHA 26 26 715581 340166 698611 280067
L2QILL 26 26 10818.3 3484.2 10913.0 3318.2
LRHEMSW 26 26 3772992 1196814 3772992 1196814
LAHPH 26 26 47879.0 13194.2 47879.0 13194.2
LQILL 26 26 10719.1 3687.4 10828.0 3499.3
LQKBHA 26 26 15692.0 9067.9 15945.1 8348.4
LDKBKG 26 26 10448.9 7092.4 10563.0 4436.2
LDKBKL 26 26 15555.0 5345.2 14492.4 3464.7
261
Lampiran 9. Notasi Peubah yang Digunakan untuk Pengolahan Data No
Spesifikasi Model
Pengolahan Data
Keterangan 1. r
t
R Suku Bunga
2. R
t
RR Suku Bunga Riil
3. UIP
t
UIP Paritas Suku Bunga
4. e
t
EXR Nilai Tukar
RpUSD 5. T
t
RPPJK Penerimaan Pajak Rp miliar
6. G
t
RG Pengeluaran Pemerintah
Rp miliar
7. I
t
RI Investasi Rp
miliar 8. NX
t
RNX Ekspor Bersih Rp miliar
9. C
t
RC Konsumsi Rp
miliar 10. Y
t
RY Produk Domestik Bruto PDB Rp miliar
11. IHK
t
IHK Indeks Harga Konsumen Tahun 2000=100
12. LD
t
EMP Permintaan Tenaga Kerja juta orang
13. UL
t
UNEMP Jumlah Pengangguran juta orang
14. W
t
RW Upah Tenaga Kerja Rpbulan
15. NX
t
RNX Nilai Ekspor Rp miliar
17. MS
t
RMS Penawaran Uang
Rp miliar
18. oil
P t
OILP Harga Minyak Mentah Dunia USDbarel
19. π
t
DINF Inflasi Dalam Negeri
20. DEFL DFLA
GDP Deflator Tahun 2000=100 21.
π
E t
EXPINF Ekspektasi Inflasi
22. R
us
RFRATE Suku Bunga Riil Amerika Serikat
23. r
us
FEDRATE Suku Bunga Nominal Amerika Serikat
24. π
us
USINF Inflasi Amerika Seikat
25. US
CPI
USCPI IHK Amerika Serikat tahun 2000=100
26. US
GDP
USGDP PDB Amerika Serikat USD miliar
27. LS
t
LF Penawaran Tenaga Kerja juta orang
28. DF
HTI t
TDFHTI Deforestasi untuk Areal HTI ribu ha
29. A
HTI t
AHTI Luas Areal HTI ribu ha
30. q
HTI t
PRODHTI Produktivitas HTI m3ha
31. S
KHTI t
QKHTI Penawaran Kayu HTI ribu m3
32. D
KHTI t
DKHTI Permintaan Kayu HTI ribu m3
33. P
P
KHTI t
RHKHTI Harga Kayu HTI Rpm3
34. P
P
XPULP t
RHEPU Harga Ekspor Pulp Rpton
35. P
P
BBM t
RHBBM Harga BBM Rpliter
36. DF
SW t
TDFSW Deforestasi untuk
Areal Sawit ribu ha 37. A
TSW t
ATSW Luas Areal Tanaman Sawit ribu ha
38. q
SW t
PRODSW Produktivitas Tanaman Sawit tonha
39. S
BSW t
QBSW Penawaran Buah Sawit ribu ron
40. D
BSW t
DBSW Permintaan Buah Sawit ribu ton
41. P
P
BSW t
RHBSW Harga Buah Sawit Rpkg
42. P
P
DMSW t
RHDMSW Harga Minyak Sawit Dalam Negeri Rpton
43. P
P
XMSW t
RHEMSW Harga Ekspor Minyak Sawit Rpton
44. DF
KR t
TDFKR Deforestasi untuk
Areal Karet ribu ha 45. A
TKR t
ATKR Luas Areal Tanaman Karet ribu ha
46. q
KR t
PRODKR Produktivitas Tanaman Karet tonha
262
Lampiran 9. Lanjutan No Spesifikasi
Model Pengolahan
Data Keterangan
47. D
DKR t
DDKR Permintaan Karet Dalam Negeri ribu ton
48. S
XKR t
QXKR Penawaran Ekspor Karet ribu ton
49. P
P
DKR t
RHDKR Harga Karet Dalam Negeri Rpkg
50. P
P
XKR t
RHEKR Harga Ekspor Karet Rpton
51. DF
PD t
TDFPD Deforestasi untuk
Areal Padi ribu ha 52. A
TPD t
ATPD Luas Areal Tanaman Padi ribu ha
53. q
PD t
PRODPD Produktivitas Tanaman Padi tonha
54. S
GKG t
QGKG Penawaran Gabah
Kering Giling ribu ton 56. D
GKG t
DGKG Permintaan Gabah Kering Giling ribu ton
57. P
P
GKG t
RHGKG Harga Gabah Kering Giling Rpkg
58. P
P
HPP t
RHHPP Harga Pembelian Pemerintah Rpkg
59. P
P
DBR t
RHDBR Harga Beras Dalam Negeri Rpkg
60 DG
HPH t
DGHPH Degradasi Hutan Areal HPH ribu ha
61. A
HPH t
AHPH Luas Areal HPH ribu ha
62 q
HA t
PRODHA Produktivitas Hutan Alam m3hath
63. S
KILL t
QILL Penawaran Kayu Ilegal ribu m3
64. S
KHA t
QKBHA Penawaran Kayu Hutan Alam ribu m3
65. D
KHAKG t
DKBKG Permintaan Kayu Hutan Alam oleh Industri
Kayu Gergajian ribu m3 66.
D
KHAKL t
DKBKL Permintaan Kayu Hutan Alam oleh Industri
Kayu Lapis ribu m3 67. P
P
KHA t
RHKHA Harga Kayu Hutan Alam Rpm3
69. P
P
XKL t
RHEKL Harga Ekspor Kayu Lapis Rpm3
70. DR
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71. PSDH
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RPSDH Provisi Sumberdaya Hutan Rpm3
ABSTRACT
SATRIA ASTANA. Macroeconomic Policy and External Factors Impact on Natural Forest Degradation and Deforestation. BONAR M. SINAGA, as
Chairman, SUDARSONO SOEDOMO and BINTANG C. H. SIMANGUNSONG as Members of the Advisory Committee.
Through the framework of REDD Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in 2009 Indonesia declared a target of reducing CO
2
emission by 26 until 2020, and assigned scores for forestry subsector to contribute 14 lower emission. In forestry subsector, reducing CO
2
emission can be conducted by maintaining and conserving the remaining natural forest area
andor increasing the existing plantation forest area through reforestating the degraded forest areas. The natural forest maintenance and conservation policy will
reduce the areal expansion, including of agricultural sectors such as for food and estate crops and forestry as well and hence their economic contribution to
economic growth. Macroeconomic policy and external factor affect natural forest degradation and deforestation. The objectives of this research are: 1 to construct
and estimate the econometric model of macroeconomic policy and external factor impact on natural forest degradation and deforestation, and 2 to evaluate the
natural forest degradation and deforestation impact of the macroeconomic policy and external factor. The model is estimated using 2SLS method and tested using
relevant statistical tests. The estimated parameters have signs as theoretically predicted, and the evaluation of the macroeconomic policy and external factor
impact reflect that maintaining and conserving the remaining natural forest is ineffective if a new permit of its utilization is recognized. In order to reduce the
deforestation of natural forest, it is necessarily to set up policy permitting areal expansion only within degraded natural forest areas selectively and facilitating
interest rate subsidy as a part of incentive-disincentive system in controlling deforestation and forest degradation.
Keywords: Econometric Model. Macroeconomic Policy, External Factor, Natural
Forest, Degradation, Deforestation.
RINGKASAN
SATRIA ASTANA. Dampak Kebijakan Makroekonomi dan Faktor Eksternal terhadap Deforestasi dan Degradasi Hutan Alam. BONAR M. SINAGA sebagai
Ketua, SUDARSONO SOEDOMO dan BINTANG C. H. SIMANGUNSONG sebagai anggota Komisi Pembimbing.
Perubahan iklim global merupakan isu dunia yang kini menjadi perhatian banyak kalangan baik di dalam negeri maupun di dunia internasional. Selaras
dengan isu tersebut, perhatian masyarakat internasional terhadap perkembangan masalah deforestasi dan degradasi hutan semakin menguat. Perhatian masyarakat
internasional terlihat dari berkembangnya forum-forum internasional dengan beragam kebijakan dan program yang pada intinya bertujuan untuk mencegah,
mengurangi dan memperbaiki kerusakan hutan dan lingkungan sebagai upaya mengurangi, memperlambat dan bahkan menstabilkan laju perubahan iklim global
pada threshold yang aman bagi umat manusia sedunia.
Kenyataan menunjukkan bahwa perekonomian dunia sedang berubah yakni melangkah menghadapi setidaknya tiga fenomena perubahan. Pertama adalah
fenomena perubahan yang ditandai oleh semakin terintegrasinya pasar modal dan keuangan serta perdagangan secara global. Kedua adalah fenomena perubahan
yang ditandai oleh lompatan kenaikan harga minyak mentah dunia MMD. Ketiga adalah isu perubahan iklim global. Tiga fenomena perubahan tersebut
berinteraksi menentukan besaran harga dan output perekonomian. Konsekuensinya, masing-masing negara harus melaksanakan langkah-langkah
penyesuaian adjustment pada seluruh lini sektor ekonomi.
Dengan kata lain, perekonomian dunia sedang mengalami proses-proses penyesuaian bukan saja berkaitan dengan pasar dunia yang semakin terintegrasi
dan lompatan kenaikan harga MMD namun juga berkaitan dengan isu perubahan iklim. Bagaimana dampak perubahan yang terjadi terhadap masa depan
perekonomian belum banyak dipahami. Hal ini menyarankan pentingnya mempelajari bukan hanya pengaruh kebijakan makroekonomi dan faktor
eksternal seperti suku bunga, nilai tukar, kebijakan tarif dan non-tarif, serta harga MMD terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, namun penting juga mempelajari dampak
pertumbuhan ekonomi terhadap perubahan iklim, termasuk deforestasi dan degradasi hutan.
Melalui kerangka REDD Reducing Emission from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries, Indonesia tahun 2009 mendeklarasikan
target pengurangan sebesar 26 hingga tahun 2020, dan menetapkan subsekor kehutanan berkontribusi menurunkan emisi 14. Di subsektor kehutanan,
pengurangan emisi CO
2
dapat diwujudkan dengan mempertahankan dan mengkonservasi hutan alam yang tersisa danatau meningkatkan hutan tanaman
yang ada dengan mereboisasi kawasan hutan yang terdegradasi. Target pengurangan CO
2
dengan mempertahankan dan mengkonservasi hutan alam akan mengurangi ekspansi areal, termasuk ekspansi areal pertanian seperti untuk
pangan, perkebunan dan juga kehutanan, dan karenanya juga akan mengurangi kontribusinya terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi.
perekonomian belum banyak dipahami. Hal ini menyarankan pentingnya memahami bukan hanya pengaruh kebijakan makroekonomi dan perubahan faktor
eksternal seperti suku bunga, nilai tukar, kebijakan tarif dan non-tarif, serta harga MMD terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, namun penting juga memahami dampak
pertumbuhan ekonomi terhadap perubahan iklim, termasuk deforestasi dan degradasi hutan.
Melalui kerangka REDD Indonesia tahun 2009 mendeklarasikan target pengurangan sebesar 26 hingga tahun 2020, dan menetapkan subsekor
kehutanan berkontribusi menurunkan emisi 14. Di subsektor kehutanan, pengurangan emisi CO
2
dapat diwujudkan dengan mempertahankan dan mengkonservasi hutan alam yang tersisa danatau meningkatkan hutan tanaman
yang ada dengan mereboisasi kawasan hutan yang terdegradasi. Target pengurangan CO
2
dengan mempertahankan dan mengkonservasi hutan alam akan mengurangi ekspansi areal, termasuk ekspansi areal pertanian seperti untuk
pangan, perkebunan dan juga kehutanan, dan karenanya juga akan mengurangi kontribusinya terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi.
Ekspansi areal atau deforestasi dan degradasi hutan alam tidak terlepas dari pengaruh kebijakan makroekonomi dan faktor
eksternal.
Berkaitan dengan faktor eksternal hutan, terdapat pandangan yang menyatakan bahwa hipotesis kunci penelitian pengaruh eksternal hutan tropis
adalah bahwa apa yang terjadi pada hutan lebih disebabkan oleh kejadian di luar hutan dibanding di dalam hutan sendiri. Dengan kata lain, dampak sektor lain
sering lebih penting dibanding misalnya dampak undang-undang bidang kehutanan, proyek penanaman pohon secara partisipatif atau program pendidikan
lingkungan.
Berbeda dengan pandangan tersebut, penelitian ini lebih mendasarkan
pada pertanyaan: bagaimana memodelkan mekanisme transmisi pengaruh eksternal hutan dan menganalisis secara simultan dampak deforestasi dan
degradasi hutan yang ditimbulkan? Untuk menghindari kompleksitas permasalahan, pengaruh eksternal hutan dalam penelitian ini dibatasi terdiri dari:
1 kebijakan makroekonomi, dan 2 faktor eksternal.
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk: 1 mengkonstruksi dan menduga model ekonometrika dampak kebijakan makroekonomi dan faktor eksternal terhadap
deforestasi dan degradasi hutan alam, dan 2 mengevaluasi dampak deforestasi dan degradasi hutan alam kebijakan makroekonomi dan faktor eksternal. Model
diduga menggunakan metode 2SLS dan diuji menggunakan uji statistik yang relevan. Parameter dugaan yang diperoleh memiliki tanda sesuai dengan yang
diprediksi teori, dan hasil evaluasi kebijakan dan faktor eksternal mengindikasikan mempertahankan dan mengkonservasi hutan alam yang tersisa
tidak efektif jika izin baru pemanfaatannya diperbolehkan. Kata kunci:
Model Ekonometrika, Kebijakan Makroekonomi, Faktor Eksternal, Hutan Alam, Deforestasi, Degradasi.
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