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The  income  of  farmers  in  the  middle  and  lower reaches  of  the  watershed  is  lower,  due  to  the  people  in
the  middle  and  downstream  land  managed  acreage  has more  narrow  around  30-36  acres.  Farmers  can  not
change  the  land  use  to  land  uses  for  citrus  crops, because it is a wetland or rice field, with a Subak system
where the member of Subak obey to rule awig-awig in the Subak.
The  relationship  of  the  farmers  income  and erosion rates were then analyzed using Spearman Rank.
The  analysis  showed  that  high  income  is  not  always followed by a high erosion or otherwise. This is caused
by  high revenues for  major crops are citrus crop whose price is determined by the market.
4.4 Planning of the Land Use in Ayung Watershed
4.5.1 Change of the Land Use
Changes in land use in 2008 to 2012 the increase in  the  use  of  residential  land    buildings  15.22  ha
0.31,  forest  area  of  7.37  ha  0.51,  the  plantation area of 10.92 ha 0.10 , moor 191.84 ha 3.40, and
vacant land 8,24 ha 46.51. The use of irrigated land and shrubs each area of 13.246 ha declined and 221, 35
ha 0.59 and 15.04.
Based on the result of analysis and interview with respondents  farmers  in  Kintamani  district  and  Petang
subdistrict,  the  increase  in  forest  area  in  the  study  site because people have begun to realize, given the function
of  the  forest  is  very  large  due  to  the  slightest  changes will  affect  the  watershed  discharge.  This  situation  can
be seen from the  observation to the field, in the  village of  Bayung Cerik, where  in the area at the border of the
river  has  been  planted  with  large  trees  that  have economic  value  and  function  of  protecting  the
34
environment.  Besides,  between  pine  trees  forest  and the  land  has  been  planted  with  shrubs  such  as  elephant
grass  terrace  amplifier  is  performed  by  farmers  around the  forest  with  the  aim  to  guard  against  landslides
because  farmers  began  to  realize  the  functions  of  the forest.
4.5.2
Analysis of SWAT Results  of  analysis  using  models  SWAT,  with
land use change scenarios are presented in Table 4.3
Table 4.3 Analysis Results of Land Use Change on discharge in
Ayung Watershed
No Scenarios
Maximum
discharge
Minimum
discharge
River Regim
Coefficient ------------- m
3
det
-1
---------------- 1.
Scenario-1 9.34
2,92 3,20
2. Scenario-2
4,29 1,06
4,04 3.
Scenario-3 4,09
2,06 1,98
4. Scenario-4
4,34 2,24
1,94
Source : Result of Analysis
Scenario-1  using  the  data  changes  in  land  use  in 2008-2012.  Scenario-2,  changing  the  use  of  wetland
RICE  to  residential  URBN.  Scenario-3  mixed plantation  land  use  change  AGRL  become  secondary
forest  FRST.  Scenario-4  changes  in  land  use  bush SHRB become secondary forest FRST.
The  result  of  analysis  showed  the  highest coefficient  of  river  regime  contained  in  the  scenario-2
and the lowest in scenario-4 4.04 and 1.94. It is caused by  changes  in  land  use,  the  scenario-2  rainwater  that
falls  is  not  infiltrated  properly  so  that  surface  runoff  a greater  than  scenario-4.  This  situation  can  also  be  seen
from the results of the hydrological cycle. In scenario-1 precipitation of 2479.7 mm into the surface flow 981,48
mm;  scenario-2  becomes  runoff  of  960.82  mm;
35
scenario-3  becomes  run  off  897.19  mm  and  scenario-4 becomes runoff 875,17 mm. This means that changes in
land  use  scenario-4  is  better  because  of  runoff  into  the smaller  rivers,  because  of  the  vast  increase  in  land
cover,  so  that  the  rain  water  that  falls  has  a  chance infiltrated.  Hydrological  cycle  of  each  scenario
presented in Figure 4.2.
Scenario-1 Scenario-2
Skenario-3 Skenario-4
Figure 4.2 The Hydrological Cycle Changes in land use, namely the increase in forest
area,  orange  groves  and  fields  in  the  upper  watershed land  area  derived  from  the  reduction  of  the  bushes
around  the  location  of  settlements.  Instead  of  paddy
36
fields in the  middle and lower reaches of the  watershed size  of  decline,  due  to  the  need  for  land  for  housing  or
waking  region  increases.  Increasing  in  the  use  of  land for  settlements  in  the  middle  and  lower  reaches  of  the
watershed,  from  the  conversion  of  paddy  land conversion  or  deliberately  left  fallow  or  is  allowed  to
dry so that it will become dry land. Increased residential area  can  be  used  as  an  indicator  the  increasing  number
of residents  in an area and the shrinking  of agricultural land  into residential areas or paddy fields. For  example
a housing development  in the area Peguyangan Kangin to  the  South,  namely  Housing  of  Ayung  Villa  and
Terras, and housing in the area of Penatih.
The  increasing  of  people  number  in  the  lower watershed,  causing  land  conversion  quickly.  This
happens  in  downtown  Denpasar,  Badung  and  Gianyar, in  this  area  increased  rapidly  due  to  population  growth
there  is  a  center  of  government,  education  center  and economic  center,  and  the  development  of  supporting
services  for  tourism.  This  agrees  with  the  results  of research  Subadiyasa  et  al.  2010  which  states  that  a
conversion  has  occurred  over the  land  or an average  of 100 ha per year.
According  Rahmadi  2008,  a  good  watershed management is the  management that takes  into account
various  aspects  related,  whether  social,  economic,  and physical.  From  the  physical  aspects  need  to  monitor
changes  in  land  use  so  as  to  control  the  water  flow changes and minimize damage to land because land use
is not in accordance with its carrying capacity.
The  importance  of  watershed  areas  upstream, namely protected forest area in Kintamani and Petang to
consider, because of damage to the upstream region will cause  more  losses in the  middle and downstream  of the
37
economic and socio-cultural aspects. To maintain that it is necessary to apply the local wisdom that comes from
Hinduism  philosophy  of  Tri  Hita  Karana.  In  essence calls for harmony and  harmonious relationship between
human  and  God  Parhayangan,  the  relationship between  humans  Pawongan,  and  the  relationship
between  humans  and  the  environment  Palemahan  in achieving welfare and unseen Windia, 2006.
The  calculation  result  of  land  use  changes  in  the upstream watershed Ayung of citrus plants monokutur
to  intercropping  orange  +  gumitir  flower  +  elephant grass strip, the amount of  erosion and farmers income
can be seen Table 4.4
Table 4.4 Effect of Land Use Pattern on Erosion and Revenue Farmers
in the Ayung Watershed
No Land use patterns
R K
LS CP
Erosion t ha
-1
th
-1
Edp t ha
-1
th
-1
Farmer Income
Rpth 1
Orange 2764,8  0,29
3,26 0,07  182,97
57,00 37.500.000
2 Orange + Elephant Grass
2764,8  0,29 3,26
0,02    52,27 57,00
38.500.000 3
Orange + gumitir flower + elephant grass
2764,8  0,29 3,26  0,003
7,84 57,00
39.880.000
Sumber  :  The result of analysis
Results  of  the  analysis  of  Table  4.4,  the  pattern  of land  use  than  monoculture  cropping  citrus  orange-
gumitir  flower  and  crop  terraces  amplifier  elephant grass cause  erosion  decreased from 182.97 t ha
-1
th
-1
to 7.84  t  ha
-1
th
-1
occurs  a  decrease  of  175.13  t  ha
-1
th
-1
96.  Erosion  caused  declines  have  followed  the pattern  of  land  use  conservation  principles  that
intercropping  orange  with gumitir flowers and  elephant grass  strip  led  to  the  addition  of  plant  density.  This
causes the rainwater that fell not directly  on the  ground
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so  that  the  kinetic  energy  of  the  rain  can  be  muted  by the plant canopy, erosion can be minimized.
Citrus  farmers  income  in  monoculture  with oranges result an average of 3 tonnes per ha per year at
a price of oranges during the research Rp 12,500 per kg, the  results  obtained  from  the  sale  of  oranges  is  Rp
37,500.  000,  -. Farmers  income  from  the  sale  of  citrus with elephant grass with an average income of 3 tonnes
per  ha  per  year  at  a  price  of  oranges  Rp  12,500,  -  and the proceeds from the sale of elephant grass on average
Rp.  1,000,000  per  year  the  farmer  idea  entirely  Rp 38.500.000,-.  Income  farmers  intercropped  plant,  the
proceeds  of  citrus,  grass  and  gumitir  flowers  is  Rp. 39.880.000,-,  revenues  increased  by  Rp  2.380.000  on
revenue  of  Rp  37,500,000,  -  to  Rp  39.880.000,-  6. This is due to the revenue generated from the results of
oranges not only, but also come from the sales proceeds gumitir  flowers  and  grass.  Intercropping  land  use
economically  and  environmentally  positive  impacts, because  the  rate  of  erosion  can  be  minimized.  That  is
cultivated citrus commodities should follow the rules of soil and water conservation, for sustainable agriculture.
4.6 Novelty of Research