42
10. Provinsi Sulawesi Tenggara Hasil Estimasi dalam Perhitungan TFP
Dependent Variable: LNQ Method: Least Squares
Date: 070413 Time: 18:58 Sample: 1986 2010
Included observations: 25 Variable
Coefficient Std. Error
t-Statistic Prob.
LNTK 0.214720
0.198877 1.079663
0.2931 LNB
0.803307 0.067120
11.96814 0.0000
LNE -0.001103
0.106551 -0.010354
0.9918 LNSM
0.028720 0.043581
0.659012 0.5174
C -0.146817
1.612780 -0.091033
0.9284 R-squared
0.986830 Mean dependent var 5.369967
Adjusted R-squared 0.984196 S.D. dependent var
2.073513 S.E. of regression
0.260670 Akaike info criterion 0.325733
Sum squared resid 1.358976 Schwarz criterion
0.569508 Log likelihood
0.928343 Hannan-Quinn criter. 0.393345
F-statistic 374.6497 Durbin-Watson stat
1.706848 ProbF-statistic
0.000000
Uji Kenormalan
Uji Heteroskedastisitas
Heteroskedasticity Test: Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey F-statistic
0.284399 Prob. F4,20 0.8846
ObsR-squared 1.345465 Prob. Chi-Square4
0.8536 Scaled explained SS
1.450364 Prob. Chi-Square4 0.8354
Uji Autokorelasi
Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test: F-statistic
0.573827 Prob. F2,18 0.5733
ObsR-squared 1.498426 Prob. Chi-Square2
0.4727
1 2
3 4
5 6
-0.4 -0.2
-0.0 0.2
0.4 0.6
0.8
Series: Residuals Sample 1986 2010
Observations 25 Mean
2.06e-15 Median
-0.043084 Maximum
0.705640 Minimum
-0.336911 Std. Dev.
0.237958 Skewness
1.174004 Kurtosis
4.368640 Jarque-Bera
7.694075 Probability
0.021343
43
Uji Multikolinearitas
LNQ LNL
LNB LNE
LNM LNQ
1.000000 0.884533
0.991903 0.920704
0.871142 LNL
0.884533 1.000000
0.866081 0.834246
0.900983 LNB
0.991903 0.866081
1.000000 0.921082
0.853821 LNE
0.920704 0.834246
0.921082 1.000000
0.883917 LNM
0.871142 0.900983
0.853821 0.883917
1.000000
Hasil Perhitungan TFP Provinsi Sulawesi Tenggara
Tahun ∆QQ
a∆LL b∆BB c∆EE
c∆MM ∆AA
1986 0.338583 0.013617 0.171139 -0.000420
-0.009442 0.163688 1987 0.252941 0.012805 0.429006
-0.000304 -0.014067 -0.174499
1988 0.564554 0.012085 0.091967 -0.000238
-0.027571 0.488312 1989 0.309827 0.040789 0.089256
0.000065 0.028720 0.150997
1990 0.158076 -0.029679 0.550190 -0.000234
0.114880 -0.477080 1991 0.221563 0.067747 0.481265
0.000315 -0.014360 -0.313404
1992 0.680567 0.110248 0.417967 -0.001624
0.258480 -0.104504 1993 -0.099976 -0.001543 -0.253462
-0.001006 0.086160 0.069874
1994 0.609475 0.096195 0.499499 0.000240
-0.014360 0.027902 1995 0.127224 0.007626 0.141062
-0.000412 1.478984 -1.500036
1996 0.529212 0.010911 0.491286 -0.000639
0.028223 -0.000568 1997 3.059817 0.188451 2.504037
-0.000030 -0.013772 0.381131
1998 0.389045 -0.038349 -0.246448 -0.000029
0.026820 0.647051 1999 -0.225933 -0.009762 0.322566
-0.000114 -0.000250 -0.538374
2000 0.069820 0.007441 0.318116 -0.004325
0.041647 -0.293058 2001 0.740063 0.033128 0.921011
0.000424 -0.003298 -0.211203
2002 0.048536 -0.015974 -0.187395 -0.000080
-0.010847 0.262832 2003 0.033086 -0.002648 0.808484
-0.000320 -0.017313 -0.755117
2004 0.012670 0.002067 -0.083649 0.000213
0.001976 0.092063 2005 -0.089564 -0.044147 -0.221172
-0.000568 -0.001689 0.178012
2006 0.178989 0.102809 0.297346 0.000205
0.076672 -0.298044 2007 3.229427 0.122650 3.327567
0.000767 0.007204 -0.228761
2008 0.614519 -0.124076 0.042202 -0.003406
-0.011163 0.710963 2009 -0.681393 -0.029806 -0.415700
0.000248 -0.009123 -0.227013
2010 0.224174 0.001383 -0.040115 -0.000542
0.040202 0.223247 Rata-rata Total
-0.069024 Rata-rata Sebelum Krisis
-0.151756 Rata-rata Setelah Krisis
-0.090371
44 Lampiran 2 Faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi Total Factor Productivity TFP
10 provinsi tahun 1986-2010
1. Provinsi Sumatera Utara
Uji Stasioneritas a.
Total Factor Productivity TFP
Null Hypothesis: TFP has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=5 t-Statistic
Prob. Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
-6.619240 0.0000
Test critical values: 1 level
-3.737853 5 level
-2.991878 10 level
-2.635542 MacKinnon 1996 one-sided p-values.
b. Produk Domestik Regional Bruto PDRB Industri
Null Hypothesis: LNPDRBI has a unit root Exogenous: Constant, Linear Trend
Lag Length: 1 Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=5 t-Statistic
Prob. Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
-3.576557 0.0546
Test critical values: 1 level
-4.416345 5 level
-3.622033 10 level
-3.248592 MacKinnon 1996 one-sided p-values.
c. Penanaman Modal Asing PMA
Null Hypothesis: LNPMA has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=5 t-Statistic
Prob. Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
-2.034979 0.2709
Test critical values: 1 level
-3.737853 5 level
-2.991878 10 level
-2.635542 MacKinnon 1996 one-sided p-values.
d. Penanaman Modal Dalam Negeri PMDN
Null Hypothesis: LNPMDN has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=5 t-Statistic
Prob. Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic
-2.481306 0.1322
Test critical values: 1 level
-3.737853 5 level
-2.991878 10 level
-2.635542 MacKinnon 1996 one-sided p-values.
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