5
The New Paradigm of Geostrategy in the Aftermath of Arab Awakening
Indria Ernaningsih indriaerna5gmail.com
MSc in Islamic Finance Hamad Bin Khalifa University
Abstract :
The wave of democratic revolt and consequent turnmoil in the Middle East have changed the landscape of socio-political and economics in the region, even in its relation
in international affairs. Having said that, the paper attempts to discuss two main considerations. Firstly, it examines how the political unrest process which is commonly
called Arab Spring or Arab Awakening” has undergone in several different scale upheavals across the region due to its root causes as well as a set of factors such as; the
state structures and responses of the regime, the role of security forces and the conflict of the ethnic and sectarian issues make up in the society. In addition the paper argues that
the revolutionary waves tend to expand and impend nearby, further changing dramatically into a state alliance relationship, hence the second consideration is how to
asses the uprising impact on the regional and international geostrategy alongside the roadmap of balance power of various players in this r
egion after three years of “Arab Spring”.
1. Introduction
Currently, the Arab world is experiencing one of the most substantial transformations in socio- political and socio-economic movements. The movement is commonly
labelled as “Arab Spring” or Arab Awakening”. More specifically, it describes the wave of demonstration, civil unrest and civil war uprising demanding greater
democratic governance in the Arab world.
1
The revolts grew either to overthrow their existing regime or turn it into a civil war. The six countries namely Tunisia, Egypt,
Libya, Syria, Bahrain and Yemen have faced a full scale of upheaval. Beyond those countries, the uprising also has caused domestic political unrest to other Arab countries
6
at a lower scale such as in Morocco, Jordan and the rest of the GCC states. Meanwhile some countries such as Lebanon, Iraq, Algeria and Palestine have been relatively
immune by this uprising.
2
The Arab Spring was triggered by the first protests that took place in Tunisia on December 18, 2010. A series of mass demonstrations resulted in the overthrow of the
regime of Zine El Abidine Ben Ali who has ruled for 23 years. What happened in Tunisia spread far and wide like the domino effect across social media. The image of
bravery embodying the spirit of change of the demonstrators went viral through Facebook, Twitter, Youtube and satellite TV inspiring thousands of others across the
Arab world. Ultimately the power of media has proved effectively to build awareness and mobilize mass.
3
The spirit of democratic movement has spilled over, as similar mass demonstrations then occurred in Egypt by the end of January 2011, calling for President
Husni Mubarak’s resignation. Although President Mubarak has responded by not standing in the president election in September 2011, the pledge was rejected. After
the massive wave of protestors occupying Tahrir Square in Cairo expressing “A Day of Departure” rally, eventually on 13 February 2011.
President Husni Mubarak was forced to step down.
4
In Yemen, since President Saleh rejected the proposal of his resignation, divisions in its military forces have sparked,
hence opening doors to a violent crackdown between the government and the opposition, tribesmen backed by defected military forces. In Bahrain, when the Shia
majority population protested against its Sunni ruling Khalifa royal family, security forces quickly suppressed those supported by the “Peninsula Shield” forces from Saudi
Arabia and the United Arab Emirate. In Libya, the protests started in the eastern city of Benghazi, before escalating to various cities including Tripoli and evolving into a open
war between Gadaffi’s militaries and groups of anti government protesters which ultimately dragged NATO into the conflict.
Among those six countries, Syria experienced the most deteriorated of insurgencies since the Assad regime responded with extreme violence towards the peaceful protests.
The heavy military repressing provoked strong resistance in the form of radicalism and militarism of the Syrian people leading to a bloody civil war.
7
In fact, the Arab Spring outcome varied depending on socio-economic, political and environmental factors, the nature of each ruling regime, the degree of civility in
surrounding environments, and the momentum in achieving the revolutions goals.
5
By supporting that argument the paper also asserts that the Arab revolt has created a
new socio-political and economy in the region. Having said that the paper assesses to what extent the root causes induce the several different levels of turbulence across the
region. In parallel, the paper examines the impact of the uprising on regional and international geostrategy alongside the roadmap of balance power of various players
in this region after three years of “Arab Spring”.
2. The Root Causes of The Arab Spring
