7
In fact, the Arab Spring outcome varied depending on socio-economic, political and environmental factors, the nature of each ruling regime, the degree of civility in
surrounding environments, and the momentum in achieving the revolutions goals.
5
By supporting that argument the paper also asserts that the Arab revolt has created a
new socio-political and economy in the region. Having said that the paper assesses to what extent the root causes induce the several different levels of turbulence across the
region. In parallel, the paper examines the impact of the uprising on regional and international geostrategy alongside the roadmap of balance power of various players
in this region after three years of “Arab Spring”.
2. The Root Causes of The Arab Spring
Indeed, in the beginning there were three fundamental demands of the Arab Spring movement that wanted to be achieved; a domestic freedoms, b good governance and
c social justice.
6
These three demands were voiced by the famous slogan of the Arab protestors ash –
shabyuridisa at an –nixam the will of the people is to bring down the regime.
7
These claims emerged as a form of protest against all socio-economic and political problems
that deteriorated the quality of life. These factors include high employment, government corruption, violation of human rights, the change of demographic profiles, and
further deterioration of economies due to global financial and high inflation precipitated by rising food and energy prices.
8
Nonetheless financial pressures seems to be a pivotal trigger especially when corruption of the ruling elite was so blatantly
revealed to the public. Despite the warning that has been expressed from many parties including academic
researches about the increasing popular dissatisfaction due to the impairment of economics, the Arab regimes and international financial institution have failed to
predict the political turmoil. They still believed in the number of economics indicators that suggested the economies were undergoing a high growth rates, approximately five
percent per annum. The IMF report released seven month prior the collapse of Mubarak even praised the sustainable and wide ranging reforms both in monetary and fiscal
policy, without mentioning the demographic problem as a potential factor that enable to spark turmoil.
9
8
Table 1. GDP Growth Rates, 1980-2012 Period Country
1980- 1990
1990- 2001
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Developed Economies
US 3.4
3.5 2.7
1.9 0.0
-3.5 3.0
1.6 2.2
Canada 3.4
3.0 2.8
2.2 0.7
-2.8 3.2
2.4 1.8
UK 3.1
2.6 2.8
2.7 -0.1
-4.9 1.4
0.8 0.2
France 2.2
1.8 2.5
2.3 -0.1
-2.7 1.5
1.7 0.0
Sweden 2.2
2.0 4.3
3.3 -0.6
-5.2 5.6
4.0 1.2
Germany West 2.1
1.5 3.7
3.3 1.1
-5.1 3.7
3.1 0.9
Japan 4.1
1.3 2.0
2.4 -1.2
-6.3 4.0
-0.7 2.0
Australia 3.4
4.0 3.1
3.8 3.7
1.3 2.7
2.1 3.6
Non-Oil Arab Countries Egypt
5.0 4.6
6.8 7.1
7.2 4.7
5.1 1.8
2.2 Jordan
- 4.8
7.9 8.5
7.6 2.3
3.1 2.6
2.8 Syria
2.1 5.5
5.0 5.7
4.7 6.0
3.2 -
- Tunisia
3.6 4.7
5.7 6.3
4.7 3.1
3.7 -1.8
3.6 Morroco
4.0 2.5
7.8 2.7
5.6 4.8
3.7 4.9
3.0
Sources : World Bank
10
A combination of the increasing birth rate , the declining infant mortality rate and also the rising life expectancy over the last few decades have caused the Arab regions to face
an unprecedented boom in its youth population which is almost three quarters of the population under the age of thirty. In addition, the rise of female participation in
workforce has put a tremendous pressure on labor markets, social services and social stability. The youth workforce are also more educated and politically demanding.
However, the region has showed the lowest share of employed workforce in the working-age population, which is reflected in the figure below.
11
9
Figure 2. Share of Employed People in Working Age Population +15
70
64 52
55 57 57
52.5
47 50
35 17.5
MENA ECA LAC SA EAP SSA EU25
Sources : World Bank, 2009 cited in Ozekin Akkas 2014 MENA =Middle East North Africa; ECA = Europe Central Asia; LAC = Latin
America the Caribbean; SA = South Asia; EAP = East Asia the Pacific; SSA = Sub-Saharan Africa; EU = European union.
Due to pressures from the IMF and World Bank, the majority of Arab countries were forced to reform their economies based on the economic liberation program called
“Structural Adjustment Program SAP” in the mid 1980s. In order to follow the program, government started to revoke the subsidies of basic essential commodities,
decreasing the number of government jobs, increasing taxation and consumption for citizens; on the other side, local and foreign investors were granted custom and taxation
exemption. The economic impoverishment of the majority of people occurred as result of the rising food prices and unemployment particularly among the youth. Meanwhile,
the ruling elite through corruption seem to be ongoing enrichment themselves by managing numerous amount of wealth which triggered a potential social conflict.
12
In addition, there were massive violation of human rights as a form of the repressive and
violent nature of the Arab regimes that reflected on the report issued by World Bank in 2011. This report has title “the Worldwide Governance Indicators” showed that
MENA region has the second lowest score after former Soviet Union. Finally, the culmination of socio-economic and socio political problems coupled with increasingly
deteriorating economy aftermath of financial crisis sparked the Arab Uprising led by youth.
10
Figure 3. Voice and Accountability by Region, 1998 - 2010
Sources ; World Bank, 2011 “ The Worldwide Governance Indicators cited in Ozekin
Akkas
2014
MENA =Middle East and North Africa; SSA = Subsaharan Africa; SA = South Asia; EA = East
Sources ; World Bank, 2011 “ The Worldwide Governance Indicators cited in Ozekin Akkas 2014
MENA =Middle East and North Africa; SSA = Subsaharan Africa; SA = South Asia; EA = East Asia; LA = Latin America; EUB = Eastern Europe Baltics; FSU = Former
Soviet Union3. The Difference in Escalation of the Arab Uprising
In fact the military institutions have played a pivotal role responding the escalation of Arab movement through three different stances; a disassociation with the regime and
welcoming the transition, b loyalty to the status quo; c defection and becoming part of the opposition. In the case of Tunisia and Egypt, the military kept distance from
repression committed by the police and security forces to demonstrators, hence the regime was overthrown in a relatively smooth manner. Furthermore, the collapse of
Hosni Mubarak led to a military take over and allowed the democratic election to be won by Freedom and Justice-
the party of the Muslim Brotherhood both in People’s Assembly-
the Parliament’s lower house 47.2 and the Consultative Council 58; ultimately their candidate Mohammad Morsi won the presidency in May 2012.
13
In Tunisia, the transition was even better than Egypt because the military was already
frustrated with the policy of marginalization and neutralization implemented by president Zine El Abiding Ben Ali.
14
11
The military in Syria and Bahrain on the contrary were different to their counterparts in Tunisia and Egypt; they put themselves loyal to the ruler. In Syria, the Assad regime
adopted policies for recruiting military and security forces particularly for the top officer - they were mostly taken from the Alawite minority population-the loyal Shia supporter
of Assad. Moreover the brutal tactic of the army in the face of the demonstrators spawned fierce resistance from the opposition and brought international intervention.
Quickly the uprising transformed into a bloody civil war and caused fragmentation of the country in terms of the sects Shia vs Sunni, ethnicities Kurdish vs Arab and
ideologies the Islamists and secularist. This regime has survived until now, because of, not only the loyalty of the army, but also the ingenuity of Bashar in utilizing his allies.
In Bahrain, the military also remain unified to King Hamad but not due to sectarian relation. The opposition, who were mostly composed of the Shia, demanded more
participation in social and political discourses. The revolt was immediately put out by the Sunni rulers who assisted GCC forces that was mainly composed of Saudis. The
danger of the Sunni-Shia friction threatened Saudi security hence there was no option for Saudi but to support the Bahrain ruler at any cost.
In Libya and Yemen, the military forces were not solid, as a split of stand point on how to respond to the revolt occurred. The division comes as a result of the weak
institutional state structure.
15
As regards Libya, the protestors faced stiff opposition from the ruling regime. The military and militias were loyal to Qaddhafi, killing
numerous demonstrators that induced international condemnation. The Arab League called for the imposition of a no fly zone over Libya to protect civilians from Qaddhafi
forces. The United States took action quickly to the internationalised Libya crisis through the help of Qatar by sending military forces supported by NATO allies under
legitimization of Resolution 1970 adopted by UN Security Council.
16
Shortly, after the outbreak of the uprising, under General Abdul Fatah Younis and Musa Kusa - Qaddafis right-hand, some army units and intelligences defected and joined the
rebellion. The revolt then moved uncontrolled, although Qaddafi has been assassinated, Libya was the fragmented into numerous fractions. The post-Qaddafi ruler was weak
and failed to rebuild their institutions, especially in the security sector. Moreover military bases and mercenaries during the civil war later transferred to the National
Movement of Azawad, Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, Al Ansar-Dine and the
12
Touareg Movement in north of Mali, causing open instability and tension as well as geopolitical chaos.
17
With regards to Yemen, initially the demonstration ran peacefully, without any crackdown. However the situation did not last long, with the authorities becoming
impatient and using violence to disperse demonstration that caused disintegration within the military and defection of some its leaders; later they joined the rebels. After
following a series of government massacres against the revolutionary forces, the Saudi backed US, forced President Ali Abdullah Saleh to step down and ceded his office to
vice president Abdu Mansour Hadi. Since then Hadi’s government also became an ally of the Saudis since Hadi’s foreign policy was similar to the former president Saleh.
18
4. The Arab Uprising Implication : Geostrategy Configuration
