7.056 -2.97 13.3569 8.064 -2.52 37.4544 8.748 -1.53 83.9889 218.0536 12.04 114.4405 KESIMPULAN DAN SARAN

2009 1.89 2.646 1.134 -1.764 -0.63 0.63 0.63 0.3969 Jumlah 9

8.19 7.056

9.324 2.646

11.97 -2.97

4.23 13.3569

Mean absolute error = 4 23 . 4 = 1.1 Mean square error = 4 3569 . 13 = 3.3 Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.8 Tahun Penderita S S at bt Forcasst Error Absolute Square 2005 _ 2006 2007 2008 9 7.2 5.76 8.64 5.76 14.4 -5.4 5.4 29.16 2009 1.44 2.304 0.576 -3.456 -2.88 2.88 2.88 8.2944 Jumlah 9

8.64 8.064

9.216 2.304

11.52 -2.52

8.28 37.4544

Lampiran 2.28 Mean absolute error = 4 28 . 8 = 2.1 Mean square error = 4 4544 . 37 = 9.4 Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.9 Tahun Penderita S S at bt Forcasst Error Absolute Square 2005 _ 2006 2007 2008 9 8.1 7.29 8.91 7.29 16.2 -7.2 7.2 51.84 2009 0.81 1.458 0.162 -5.832 -5.67 5.67 5.67 32.1489 Jumlah 9

8.91 8.748

9.072 1.458

10.53 -1.53

13.17 83.9889

Mean absolute error = 4 17 . 13 = 3.3 Mean square error = 4 9889 . 83 = 20.9 Universitas Sumatera Utara Hasil Pengolahan data Jumlah Penderita Demam Berdarah di Kabupaten Nias Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.1 Tahun Penderita S S at bt Forcasst Error Absolute Square 2005 _ 2006 2 0.2 0.02 0.38 0.02 0.4 1.6 1.6 2.56 2007 0.18 0.036 0.324 0.016 0.34 -0.34 0.34 0.1156 2008 2 0.362 0.0686 0.6554 0.0326 0.688 1.312 1.312 1.721344 2009 19 2.2258 0.28432 4.16728 0.21572 4.383 14.617 14.617 213.6567 Jumlah 23 2.9678 0.40892 5.52668 0.28432 5.811 17.189

17.9 218.0536

Mean absolute error = 4 9 . 17 = 4.5 Mean square error = 4 0536 . 218 = 54.5 Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.2 Tahun Penderita S S at bt Forcasst Error Absolute Square 2005 _ 2006 2 0.4 0.08 0.72 0.08 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.44 2007 0.32 0.128 0.512 0.048 0.56 -0.56 0.56 0.3136 2008 2 0.656 0.2336 1.0784 0.1056 1.184 0.816 0.816 0.665856 2009 19 4.3248 1.05184 7.59776 0.81824 8.416 10.584 10.584 112.0211 Jumlah 23 5.7008 1.49344 9.90816 1.05184

10.96 12.04

13.16 114.4405

Mean absolute error = 4 16 . 13 = 3.3 Mean square error = 4 4405 . 114 = 28.6 Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.3 Tahun Penderita S S at bt Forcasst Error Absolute Square 2005 _ 2006 2 0.6 0.18 1.02 0.18 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.64 2007 0.42 0.252 0.588 0.072 0.66 -0.66 0.66 0.4356 Universitas Sumatera Utara 2008 2 0.894 0.4446 1.3434 0.1926 1.536 0.464 0.464 0.215296 2009 19 6.3258 2.20896 10.44264 1.76436 12.207 6.793 6.793 46.14485 Jumlah 23 8.2398 3.08556 13.39404 2.20896 15.603 7.397 8.717 47.43575 Lampiran 2.29 Mean absolute error = 4 717 . 8 = 2.2 Mean square error = 4 43575 . 47 = 11.8 Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.4 Tahun Penderita S S at bt Forcasst Error Absolute Square 2005 _ 2006 2 0.8 0.32 1.28 0.32 1.6 0.4 0.4 0.16 2007 0.48 0.384 0.576 0.064 0.64 -0.64 0.64 0.4096 2008 2 1.088 0.6656 1.5104 0.2816 1.792 0.208 0.208 0.043264 2009 19 8.2528 3.70048 12.80512 3.03488 15.84 3.16 3.16 9.9856 Jumlah 23 10.6208 5.07008 16.17152 3.70048 19.872 3.128 4.408 10.59846 Mean absolute error = 4 408 . 4 = 1.102 Mean square error = 4 59846 . 10 = 2.6 Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.5 Tahun Penderita S S at bt Forcasst Error Absolute Square 2005 _ 2006 2 1 0.5 1.5 0.5 2 2007 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 -0.5 0.5 0.25 2008 2 1.25 0.875 1.625 0.375 2 2009 19 10.125 5.5 14.75 4.625 19.375 -0.375 0.375 0.140625 Jumlah 23 12.875 7.375 18.375 5.5 23.875 -0.875 0.875 0.390625 Universitas Sumatera Utara Mean absolute error = 4 875 . = 0.2 Mean square error = 4 390625 . = 0.1 Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.6 Tahun Penderita S S at bt Forcasst Error Absolute Square 2005 _ 2006 2 1.2 0.72 1.68 0.72 2.4 -0.4 0.4 0.16 2007 0.48 0.576 0.384 -0.144 0.24 -0.24 0.24 0.0576 2008 2 1.392 1.0656 1.7184 0.4896 2.208 -0.208 0.208 0.043264 2009 19 11.9568 7.60032 16.31328 6.53472 22.848 -3.848 3.848 14.8071 Jumlah 23 15.0288 9.96192 20.09568 7.60032 27.696 -4.696 4.696 15.06797 Mean absolute error = 4 696 . 4 = 1.2 Mean square error = 4 06797 . 15 = 3.8 Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.7 Tahun Penderita S S at bt Forcasst Error Absolute Square 2005 _ 2006 2 1.4 0.98 1.82 0.98 2.8 -0.8 0.8 0.64 2007 0.42 0.588 0.252 -0.392 -0.14 0.14 0.14 0.0196 2008 2 1.526 1.2446 1.8074 0.6566 2.464 -0.464 0.464 0.215296 2009 19 13.7578 10.00384 17.51176 8.75924 26.271 -7.271 7.271 52.86744 Jumlah 23 17.1038 12.81644 21.39116 10.00384 31.395 -8.395 8.675 53.74234 Lampiran 2.30 Mean absolute error = 4 675 . 8 = 2.2 Mean square error = 4 74234 . 53 = 13.4 Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.8 Universitas Sumatera Utara Tahun Penderita S S at bt Forcasst Error Absolute Square 2005 _ 2006 2 1.6 1.28 1.92 1.28 3.2 -1.2 1.2 1.44 2007 0.32 0.512 0.128 -0.768 -0.64 0.64 0.64 0.4096 2008 2 1.664 1.4336 1.8944 0.9216 2.816 -0.816 0.816 0.665856 2009 19 15.5328 12.71296 18.35264 11.27936 29.632 -10.632 10.632 113.0394 Jumlah 23 19.1168 15.93856 22.29504 12.71296 35.008 -12.008 18.067 115.5549 Mean absolute error = 4 067 . 18 = 4.5 Mean square error = 4 5549 . 115 = 28.9 Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.9 Tahun Penderita S S at bt Forcasst Error Absolute Square 2005 _ 2006 2 1.8 1.62 1.98 1.62 3.6 -1.6 1.6 2.56 2007 0.18 0.324 0.036 -1.296 -1.26 1.26 1.26 1.5876 2008 2 1.818 1.6686 1.9674 1.3446 3.312 -1.312 1.312 1.721344 2009 19 17.2818 15.72048 18.84312 14.05188 32.895 -13.895 13.895 193.071 Jumlah 23 21.0798 19.33308 22.82652 15.72048 38.547 -15.547 18.067 198.94 Mean absolute error = 4 067 . 18 = 4.5 Mean square error = 4 94 . 198 = 49.7 Hasil Pengolahan data Jumlah Penderita Demam Berdarah di Kabupaten Samosir Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.1 Tahun Penderita S S at bt Forcasst Error Absolute Square 2005 19 19 19 _ 2006 17.1 18.81 15.39 -0.19 15.2 -15.2 15.2 231.04 2007 13 16.69 18.598 14.782 -0.212 14.57 -1.57 1.57 2.4649 2008 15 16.521 18.3903 14.6517 -0.2077 14.444 0.556 0.556 0.309136 Universitas Sumatera Utara 2009 23 17.1689 18.26816 16.06964 -0.12214 15.9475 7.0525 7.0525 49.73776 Jumlah 70 86.4799 93.06646 60.89334 -0.73184 60.1615 -9.1615 24.3785 283.5518 Mean absolute error = 4 3785 . 24 = 6.1 Mean square error = 4 5518 . 283 = 70.9 Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.2 Tahun Penderita S S at bt Forcasst Error Absolute Square 2005 19 19 19 _ 2006 15.2 18.24 12.16 -0.76 11.4 -11.4 11.4 129.96 2007 13 14.76 17.544 11.976 -0.696 11.28 1.72 1.72 2.9584 2008 15 14.808 16.9968 12.6192 -0.5472 12.072 2.928 2.928 8.573184 2009 23 16.4464 16.88672 16.00608 -0.11008 15.896 7.104 7.104 50.46682 Jumlah 70 80.2144 88.66752 52.76128 -2.11328 50.648 0.352 23.152 191.9584 Lampiran 2.31 Mean absolute error = 4 152 . 23 = 5.8 Mean square error = 4 9584 . 191 = 47.9 Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.3 Tahun Penderita S S at bt Forcasst Error Absolute Square 2005 19 19 19 _ 2006 13.3 17.29 9.31 -1.71 7.6 -7.6 7.6 57.76 2007 13 13.21 16.066 10.354 -1.224 9.13 3.87 3.87 14.9769 2008 15 13.747 15.3703 12.1237 -0.6957 11.428 3.572 3.572 12.75918 2009 23 16.5229 15.71608 17.32972 0.34578 17.6755 5.3245 5.3245 28.3503 Jumlah 70 75.7799 83.44238 49.11742 -3.28392 45.8335 5.1665 20.3665 113.8464 Mean absolute error = 4 3665 . 20 = 5.1 Mean square error = 4 8464 . 113 = 28.5 Universitas Sumatera Utara Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.4 Tahun Penderita S S at bt Forcasst Error Absolute Square 2005 19 19 19 _ 2006 11.4 15.96 6.84 -3.04 3.8 -3.8 3.8 14.44 2007 13 12.04 14.392 9.688 -1.568 8.12 4.88 4.88 23.8144 2008 15 13.224 13.9248 12.5232 -0.4672 12.056 2.944 2.944 8.667136 2009 23 17.1344 15.20864 19.06016 1.28384 20.344 2.656 2.656 7.054336 Jumlah 70 72.7984 78.48544 48.11136 -3.79136

44.32 6.68