4.88 21.728 -5.625 6.48 17.9392 4.56 59.3088 KESIMPULAN DAN SARAN

Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.3 Tahun Penderita S S at bt Forcasst Error Absolute Square 2005 27 27 27 _ 2006 17 24 26.1 21.9 -0.9 21 -4 4 16 2007 17 21.9 24.84 18.96 -1.26 17.7 -0.7 0.7 0.49 2008 19 21.03 23.697 18.363 -1.143 17.22 1.78 1.78 3.1684 2009 25 22.221 23.2542 21.1878 -0.4428 20.745 4.255 4.255 18.10503 Jumlah 105 116.151 124.8912 80.4108 -3.7458 76.665 1.335 10.735 37.76343 Lampiran 2.20 Mean absolute error = 4 735 . 10 = 2.7 Mean square error = 4 76343 . 37 = 9.4 Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.4 Tahun Penderita S S at bt Forcasst Error Absolute Square 2005 27 27 27 _ 2006 17 23 25.4 20.6 -1.6 19 -2 2 4 2007 17 20.6 23.48 17.72 -1.92 15.8 1.2 1.2 1.44 2008 19 19.96 22.072 17.848 -1.408 16.44 2.56 2.56 6.5536 2009 25 21.976 22.0336 21.9184 -0.0384 21.88 3.12 3.12 9.7344 Jumlah 105 112.536 119.9856 78.0864 -4.9664

73.12 4.88

8.88 21.728

Mean absolute error = 4 88 . 8 = 2.22 Mean square error = 4 728 . 21 = 5.4 Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.5 Tahun Penderita S S at bt Forcasst Error Absolute Square 2005 27 27 27 _ 2006 17 22 24.5 19.5 -2.5 17 Universitas Sumatera Utara 2007 17 19.5 22 17 -2.5 14.5 2.5 2.5 6.25 2008 19 19.25 20.625 17.875 -1.375 16.5 2.5 2.5 6.25 2009 25 22.125 21.375 22.875 0.75 23.625 1.375 1.375 1.890625 Jumlah 105 109.875 115.5

77.25 -5.625

71.625 6.375 6.375 14.39063 Mean absolute error = 4 375 . 6 = 1.6 Mean square error = 4 39063 . 14 = 3.6 Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.6 Tahun Penderita S S at bt Forcasst Error Absolute Square 2005 27 27 27 _ 2006 17 21 23.4 18.6 -3.6 15 2 2 4 2007 17 18.6 20.52 16.68 -2.88 13.8 3.2 3.2 10.24 2008 19 18.84 19.512 18.168 -1.008 17.16 1.84 1.84 3.3856 2009 25 22.536 21.3264 23.7456 1.8144 25.56 -0.56 0.56 0.3136 Jumlah 105 107.976 111.7584 77.1936 -5.6736

71.52 6.48

7.6 17.9392

Mean absolute error = 4 6 . 7 = 1.9 Mean square error = 4 9392 . 17 = 4.5 Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.7 Tahun Penderita S S at bt Forcasst Error Absolute Square 2005 27 27 27 _ 2006 17 20 22.1 17.9 -4.9 13 4 4 16 2007 17 17.9 19.16 16.64 -2.94 13.7 3.3 3.3 10.89 2008 19 18.67 18.817 18.523 -0.343 18.18 0.82 0.82 0.6724 2009 25 23.101 21.8158 24.3862 2.9988 27.385 -2.385 2.385 5.688225 Jumlah 105 106.671 108.8928 77.4492 -5.1842 72.265 5.735 10.505 33.25063 Lampiran 2.21 Universitas Sumatera Utara Mean absolute error = 4 505 . 10 = 2.6 Mean square error = 4 25063 . 33 = 8.1 Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.8 Tahun Penderita S S at bt Forcasst Error Absolute Square 2005 27 27 27 _ 2006 17 19 20.6 17.4 -6.4 11 6 6 36 2007 17 17.4 18.04 16.76 -2.56 14.2 2.8 2.8 7.84 2008 19 18.68 18.552 18.808 0.512 19.32 -0.32 0.32 0.1024 2009 25 23.736 22.6992 24.7728 4.1472 28.92 -3.92 3.92 15.3664 Jumlah 105 105.816 106.8912 77.7408 -4.3008

73.44 4.56

13.04 59.3088

Mean absolute error = 4 04 . 13 = 3.26 Mean square error = 4 3088 . 59 = 14.8 Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.9 Tahun Penderita S S at bt Forcasst Error Absolute Square 2005 27 27 27 _ 2006 17 18 18.9 17.1 -8.1 9 8 8 64 2007 17 17.1 17.28 16.92 -1.62 15.3 1.7 1.7 2.89 2008 19 18.81 18.657 18.963 1.377 20.34 -1.34 1.34 1.7956 2009 25 24.381 23.8086 24.9534 5.1516 30.105 -5.105 5.105 26.06102 Jumlah 105 105.291 105.6456 77.9364 -3.1914 74.745 3.255 16.145 94.74662 Mean absolute error = 4 145 . 16 = 4.0 Mean square error = 4 74662 . 94 = 23.7 Hasil Pengolahan data Jumlah Penderita Demam Berdarah di Kabupaten Tapanuli Tengah Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.1 Tahun Penderita S S at bt Forcasst Error Absolute Square Universitas Sumatera Utara 2005 _ 2006 10 1 0.1 1.9 0.1 2 8 8 64 2007 8 1.7 0.26 3.14 0.16 3.3 4.7 4.7 22.09 2008 8 2.33 0.467 4.193 0.207 4.4 3.6 3.6 12.96 2009 22 4.297 0.85 7.744 0.383 8.127 13.873 13.873 192.4601 Jumlah 48 9.327 1.677 16.977 0.85 17.827 30.173 30.173 291.5101 Mean absolute error = 4 173 . 30 = 7.5 Mean square error = 4 5101 . 291 = 72.9 Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.2 Tahun Penderita S S at bt Forcasst Error Absolute Square 2005 _ 2006 10 2 0.4 3.6 0.4 4 6 6 36 2007 8 3.2 0.96 5.44 0.56 6 2 2 4 2008 8 4.16 1.6 6.72 0.64 7.36 0.64 0.64 0.4096 2009 22 7.728 2.8256 12.6304 1.2256 13.856 8.144 8.144 66.32474 Jumlah 48 17.088 5.7856 28.3904 2.8256 31.216 16.784 16.784 106.7343 Lampiran 2.22 Mean absolute error = 4 784 . 16 = 4.2 Mean square error = 4 7343 . 106 = 26.7 Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.3 Tahun Penderita S S at bt Forcasst Error Absolute Square 2005 _ 2006 10 3 0.9 5.1 0.9 6 4 4 16 2007 8 4.5 1.98 7.02 1.08 8.1 -0.1 0.1 0.01 2008 8 5.55 3.051 8.049 1.071 9.12 -1.12 1.12 1.2544 Universitas Sumatera Utara 2009 22 10.485 5.2812 15.6888 2.2302 17.919 4.081 4.081 16.65456 Jumlah 48 23.535 11.2122 35.8578 5.2812 41.139 6.861 9.301 33.91896 Mean absolute error = 4 301 . 9 = 2.3 Mean square error = 4 91896 . 33 = 8.5 Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.4 Tahun Penderita S S at bt Forcasst Error Absolute Square 2005 _ 2006 10 4 1.6 6.4 1.6 8 2 2 4 2007 8 5.6 3.2 8 1.6 9.6 -1.6 1.6 2.56 2008 8 6.56 4.544 8.576 1.344 9.92 -1.92 1.92 3.6864 2009 22 12.736 7.8208 17.6512 3.2768 20.928 1.072 1.072 1.149184 Jumlah 48 28.896 17.1648 40.6272 7.8208 48.448 -0.448 6.592 11.39558 Mean absolute error = 4 592 . 6 = 1.648 Mean square error = 4 39558 . 11 = 2.8 Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.5 Tahun Penderita S S at bt Forcasst Error Absolute Square 2005 _ 2006 10 5 2.5 7.5 2.5 10 2007 8 6.5 4.5 8.5 2 10.5 -2.5 2.5 6.25 2008 8 7.25 5.875 8.625 1.375 10 -2 2 4 2009 22 14.625 10.25 19 4.375 23.375 -1.375 1.375 1.890625 Jumlah 48 33.375 23.125 43.625 10.25 53.875 -5.875 5.875 12.14063 Mean absolute error = 4 875 . 5 = 1.5 Mean square error = 4 14063 . 12 = 3.0 Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.6 Universitas Sumatera Utara Tahun Penderita S S at bt Forcasst Error Absolute Square 2005 _ 2006 10 6 3.6 8.4 3.6 12 -2 2 4 2007 8 7.2 5.76 8.64 2.16 10.8 -2.8 2.8 7.84 2008 8 7.68 6.912 8.448 1.152 9.6 -1.6 1.6 2.56 2009 22 16.272 12.528 20.016 5.616 25.632 -3.632 3.632 13.19142 Jumlah 48 37.152 28.8 45.504 12.528 58.032 -10.032 10.032 27.59142 Lampiran 2.23 Mean absolute error = 4 032 . 10 = 2.5 Mean square error = 4 59142 . 27 = 6.9 Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.7 Tahun Penderita S S at bt Forcasst Error Absolute Square 2005 _ 2006 10 7 4.9 9.1 4.9 14 -4 4 16 2007 8 7.7 6.86 8.54 1.96 10.5 -2.5 2.5 6.25 2008 8 7.91 7.595 8.225 0.735 8.96 -0.96 0.96 0.9216 2009 22 17.773 14.7196 20.8264 7.1246 27.951 -5.951 5.951 35.4144 Jumlah 48 40.383 34.0746 46.6914 14.7196 61.411 -13.411 13.411 58.586 Mean absolute error = 4 411 . 13 = 3.3 Mean square error = 4 586 . 58 = 14.6 Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.8 Tahun Penderita S S at bt Forcasst Error Absolute Square 2005 _ 2006 10 8 6.4 9.6 6.4 16 -6 6 36 2007 8 8 7.68 8.32 1.28 9.6 -1.6 1.6 2.56 2008 8 8 7.936 8.064 0.256 8.32 -0.32 0.32 0.1024 Universitas Sumatera Utara 2009 22 19.2 16.9472 21.4528 9.0112 30.464 -8.464 8.464 71.6393 Jumlah 48

43.2 38.9632