16.0625 -2.88 4.821888 KESIMPULAN DAN SARAN

2007 11 5.12 3.056 7.184 1.376 8.56 2.44 2.44 5.9536 2008 3 4.272 3.5424 5.0016 0.4864 5.488 -2.488 2.488 6.190144 2009 6 4.9632 4.11072 5.81568 0.56832 6.384 -0.384 0.384 0.147456 Jumlah 22 17.5552 14.38912 18.72128 2.11072 20.832 -0.832 5.712 12.4512 Mean absolute error = 4 712 . 5 = 1.4 Mean square error = 4 4512 . 12 = 3.1 Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.5 Tahun Penderita S S at bt Forcasst Error Absolute Square 2005 2 2 2 _ 2006 1 1.5 0.5 -0.5 2007 11 6 3.75 8.25 2.25 10.5 0.5

0.5 0.25

2008 3 4.5 4.125 4.875 0.375 5.25 -2.25

2.25 5.0625

2009 6 5.25 4.6875 5.8125 0.5625 6.375 -0.375 0.375 0.140625 Jumlah 22

18.75 16.0625

19.4375 2.6875 22.125 -2.125 3.125 5.453125 Lampiran 2.25 Mean absolute error = 4 125 . 3 = 0.8 Mean square error = 4 453125 . 5 = 1.4 Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.6 Tahun Penderita S S at bt Forcasst Error Absolute Square 2005 2 2 2 _ 2006 0.8 1.28 0.32 -0.72 -0.4 0.4 0.4 0.16 2007 11 6.92 4.664 9.176 3.384 12.56 -1.56 1.56 2.4336 2008 3 4.568 4.6064 4.5296 -0.0576 4.472 -1.472 1.472 2.166784 2009 6 5.4272 5.09888 5.75552 0.49248 6.248 -0.248 0.248 0.061504 Jumlah 22 19.7152 17.64928 19.78112 3.09888

22.88 -2.88

3.68 4.821888

Universitas Sumatera Utara Mean absolute error = 4 68 . 3 = 0.92 Mean square error = 4 821888 . 4 = 1.2 Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.7 Tahun Penderita S S at bt Forcasst Error Absolute Square 2005 2 2 2 _ 2006 0.6 1.02 0.18 -0.98 -0.8 0.8 0.8 0.64 2007 11 7.88 5.822 9.938 4.802 14.74 -3.74 3.74 13.9876 2008 3 4.464 4.8714 4.0566 -0.9506 3.106 -0.106 0.106 0.011236 2009 6 5.5392 5.33886 5.73954 0.46746 6.207 -0.207 0.207 0.042849 Jumlah 22 20.4832 19.05226 19.91414 3.33886 23.253 -3.253 4.853 14.68169 Mean absolute error = 4 853 . 4 = 1.2 Mean square error = 4 68169 . 14 = 3.7 Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.8 Tahun Penderita S S at Bt Forcasst Error Absolute Square 2005 2 2 2 _ 2006 0.4 0.72 0.08 -1.28 -1.2 1.2 1.2 1.44 2007 11 8.88 7.248 10.512 6.528 17.04 -6.04 6.04 36.4816 2008 3 4.176 4.7904 3.5616 -2.4576 1.104 1.896 1.896 3.594816 2009 6 5.6352 5.46624 5.80416 0.67584 6.48 -0.48 0.48 0.2304 Jumlah 22 21.0912 20.22464 19.95776 3.46624 23.424 -3.424 9.616 41.74682 Mean absolute error = 4 616 . 9 = 2.4 Mean square error = 4 74682 . 41 = 41.7 Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.9 Tahun Penderita S S at Bt Forcasst Error Absolute Square 2005 2 2 2 _ 2006 0.2 0.38 0.02 -1.62 -1.6 1.6 1.6 2.56 Universitas Sumatera Utara 2007 11 9.92 8.966 10.874 8.586 19.46 -8.46 8.46 71.5716 2008 3 3.692 4.2194 3.1646 -4.7466 -1.582 4.582 4.582 20.99472 2009 6 5.7692 5.61422 5.92418 1.39482 7.319 -1.319 1.319 1.739761 Jumlah 22 21.5812 21.17962 19.98278 3.61422 23.597 -3.597 15.961 96.86608 Lampiran 2.26 Mean absolute error = 4 961 . 15 = 3.9 Mean square error = 4 86608 . 96 = 24.2 Hasil Pengolahan data Jumlah Penderita Demam Berdarah di Kabupaten Mandailing Natal Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.1 Tahun Penderita S S at bt Forcasst Error Absolute Square 2005 _ 2006 2007 2008 9 0.9 0.09 1.71 0.09 1.8 7.2 7.2 51.84 2009 0.81 0.162 1.458 0.072 1.53 -1.53 1.53 2.3409 Jumlah 9

1.71 0.252