2005 _
2006 8
1.6 0.32
2.88 0.32
3.2 4.8
4.8 23.04
2007 17
4.68 1.192
8.168 0.872
9.04 7.96
7.96 63.3616
2008 25
8.744 2.7024
14.7856 1.5104
16.296 8.704
8.704 75.75962
2009 16
10.1952 4.20096
16.18944 1.49856
17.688 -1.688
1.688 2.849344
Jumlah 66
25.2192 8.41536
42.02304 4.20096
46.224 19.776
23.152 165.0106
Mean absolute error =
4 152
. 23
= 5.8 Mean square error =
4 0106
. 165
= 41.2
Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.3
Tahun Penderita
S S
at bt
Forcasst Error
Absolute Square
2005 _
2006 8
2.4 0.72
4.08 0.72
4.8 3.2
3.2 10.24
2007 17
6.78 2.538
11.022 1.818
12.84 4.16
4.16 17.3056
2008 25
12.246 5.4504
19.0416 2.9124
21.954 3.046
3.046 9.278116
2009 16
13.3722 7.82694
18.91746 2.37654
21.294 -5.294
5.294 28.02644
Jumlah 66
34.7982 16.53534
53.06106 7.82694
60.888 5.112
15.7 64.85015
Mean absolute error =
4 7
. 15
= 3.9 Mean square error =
4 85015
. 64
= 16.2
Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.4
Tahun Penderita
S S
at bt
Forcasst Error
Absolute Square
2005 _
2006 8
3.2 1.28
5.12 1.28
6.4 1.6
1.6 2.56
2007 17
8.72 4.256
13.184 2.976
16.16 0.84
0.84 0.7056
2008 25
15.232 8.6464
21.8176 4.3904
26.208 -1.208
1.208 1.459264
2009 16
15.5392 11.40352
19.67488 2.75712
22.432 -6.432
6.432 41.37062
Jumlah 66
42.6912 25.58592
59.79648 11.40352
71.2 -5.2
10.08 46.09549
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Lampiran 2.18
Mean absolute error =
4 08
. 10
= 2.52 Mean square error =
4 09549
. 46
= 11.5
Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.5
Tahun Penderita
S S
at bt
Forcasst Error
Absolute Square
2005 _
2006 8
4 2
6 2
8 2007
17 10.5
6.25 14.75
4.25 19
-2 2
4 2008
25 17.75
12 23.5
5.75 29.25
-4.25 4.25
18.0625 2009
16 16.875
14.4375 19.3125
2.4375 21.75
-5.75 5.75
33.0625
Jumlah 66
49.125 34.6875
63.5625 14.4375
78 -12
12 55.125
Mean absolute error =
4 12
= 3 Mean square error =
4 125
. 55
= 13.8
Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.6
Tahun Penderita
S S
at bt
Forcasst Error
Absolute Square
2005 _
2006 8
4.8 2.88
6.72 2.88
9.6 -1.6
1.6 2.56
2007 17
12.12 8.424
15.816 5.544
21.36 -4.36
4.36 19.0096
2008 25
19.848 15.2784
24.4176 6.8544
31.272 -6.272
6.272 39.33798
2009 16
17.5392 16.63488
18.44352 1.35648
19.8 -3.8
3.8 14.44
Jumlah 66
54.3072 43.21728
65.39712 16.63488
82.032 -16.032
16.032 75.34758
Mean absolute error =
4 032
. 16
= 4.0 Mean square error =
4 34758
. 75
= 18.8
Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.7
Universitas Sumatera Utara
Tahun Penderita
S S
at bt
Forcasst Error
Absolute Square
2005 _
2006 8
5.6 3.92
7.28 3.92
11.2 -3.2
3.2 10.24
2007 17
13.58 10.682
16.478 6.762
23.24 -6.24
6.24 38.9376
2008 25
21.574 18.3064
24.8416 7.6244
32.466 -7.466
7.466 55.74116
2009 16
17.6722 17.86246
17.48194 -0.44394
17.038 -1.038
1.038 1.077444
Jumlah 66
58.4262 50.77086
66.08154 17.86246
83.944 -17.944
17.944 105.9962
Mean absolute error =
4 944
. 17
= 4.5 Mean square error =
4 9962
. 105
= 26.5
Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.8
Tahun Penderita
S S
at bt
Forcasst Error
Absolute Square
2005 _
2006 8
6.4 5.12
7.68 5.12
12.8 -4.8
4.8 23.04
2007 17
14.88 12.928
16.832 7.808
24.64 -7.64
7.64 58.3696
2008 25
22.976 20.9664
24.9856 8.0384
33.024 -8.024
8.024 64.38458
2009 16
17.3952 18.10944
16.68096 -2.85696
13.824 2.176
2.176 4.734976
Jumlah 66
61.6512 57.12384
66.17856 18.10944
84.288 -18.288
23.18 150.5292
