150.5292 -17.52 -5.04 64.224 KESIMPULAN DAN SARAN

Tahun Penderita S S at bt Forcasst Error Absolute Square 2005 _ 2006 8 5.6 3.92 7.28 3.92 11.2 -3.2 3.2 10.24 2007 17 13.58 10.682 16.478 6.762 23.24 -6.24 6.24 38.9376 2008 25 21.574 18.3064 24.8416 7.6244 32.466 -7.466 7.466 55.74116 2009 16 17.6722 17.86246 17.48194 -0.44394 17.038 -1.038 1.038 1.077444 Jumlah 66 58.4262 50.77086 66.08154 17.86246 83.944 -17.944 17.944 105.9962 Mean absolute error = 4 944 . 17 = 4.5 Mean square error = 4 9962 . 105 = 26.5 Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.8 Tahun Penderita S S at bt Forcasst Error Absolute Square 2005 _ 2006 8 6.4 5.12 7.68 5.12 12.8 -4.8 4.8 23.04 2007 17 14.88 12.928 16.832 7.808 24.64 -7.64 7.64 58.3696 2008 25 22.976 20.9664 24.9856 8.0384 33.024 -8.024 8.024 64.38458 2009 16 17.3952 18.10944 16.68096 -2.85696 13.824 2.176 2.176 4.734976 Jumlah 66 61.6512 57.12384 66.17856 18.10944 84.288 -18.288

23.18 150.5292

Lampiran 2.19 Mean absolute error = 4 18 . 23 = 5.8 Mean square error = 4 5292 . 150 = 37.6 Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.9 Tahun Penderita S S at bt Forcasst Error Absolute Square 2005 _ 2006 8 7.2 6.48 7.92 6.48 14.4 -6.4 6.4 40.96 2007 17 16.02 15.066 16.974 8.586 25.56 -8.56 8.56 73.2736 Universitas Sumatera Utara 2008 25 24.102 23.1984 25.0056 8.1324 33.138 -8.138 8.138 66.22704 2009 16 16.8102 17.44902 16.17138 -5.74938 10.422 5.578 5.578 31.11408 Jumlah 66 64.1322 62.19342 66.07098 17.44902

83.52 -17.52

28.676 211.5747 Mean absolute error = 4 676 . 28 = 7.169 Mean square error = 4 5747 . 211 = 52.9 Hasil Pengolahan data Jumlah Penderita Demam Berdarah di Kabupaten Toba Samosir Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.1 Tahun Penderita S S at bt Forcasst Error Absolute Square 2005 27 27 27 _ 2006 17 26 26.9 25.1 -0.1 25 -8 8 64 2007 17 25.1 26.72 23.48 -0.18 23.3 -6.3 6.3 39.69 2008 19 24.49 26.497 22.483 -0.223 22.26 -3.26 3.26 10.6276 2009 25 24.541 26.3014 22.7806 -0.1956 22.585 2.415 2.415 5.832225 Jumlah 105 127.131 133.4184 93.8436 -0.6986 93.145 -15.145 19.975 120.1498 Mean absolute error = 4 975 . 19 = 4.9 Mean square error = 4 1498 . 120 = 30.0 Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.2 Tahun Penderita S S at bt Forcasst Error Absolute Square 2005 27 27 27 _ 2006 17 25 26.6 23.4 -0.4 23 -6 6 36 2007 17 23.4 25.96 20.84 -0.64 20.2 -3.2 3.2 10.24 2008 19 22.52 25.272 19.768 -0.688 19.08 -0.08 0.08 0.0064 2009 25 23.016 24.8208 21.2112 -0.4512 20.76 4.24 4.24 17.9776 Jumlah 105 120.936 129.6528 85.2192 -2.1792

83.04 -5.04

13.52 64.224

Mean absolute error = 4 52 . 13 = 3.4 Mean square error = 4 224 . 64 = 16.1 Universitas Sumatera Utara Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.3 Tahun Penderita S S at bt Forcasst Error Absolute Square 2005 27 27 27 _ 2006 17 24 26.1 21.9 -0.9 21 -4 4 16 2007 17 21.9 24.84 18.96 -1.26 17.7 -0.7 0.7 0.49 2008 19 21.03 23.697 18.363 -1.143 17.22 1.78 1.78 3.1684 2009 25 22.221 23.2542 21.1878 -0.4428 20.745 4.255 4.255 18.10503 Jumlah 105 116.151 124.8912 80.4108 -3.7458 76.665 1.335 10.735 37.76343 Lampiran 2.20 Mean absolute error = 4 735 . 10 = 2.7 Mean square error = 4 76343 . 37 = 9.4 Forecast Dengan Double Exponential Smoothing dengan alpha = 0.4 Tahun Penderita S S at bt Forcasst Error Absolute Square 2005 27 27 27 _ 2006 17 23 25.4 20.6 -1.6 19 -2 2 4 2007 17 20.6 23.48 17.72 -1.92 15.8 1.2 1.2 1.44 2008 19 19.96 22.072 17.848 -1.408 16.44 2.56 2.56 6.5536 2009 25 21.976 22.0336 21.9184 -0.0384 21.88 3.12 3.12 9.7344 Jumlah 105 112.536 119.9856 78.0864 -4.9664

73.12 4.88