MAR,sumh,HH,V3MARc,s,h}; all,c,COMall,s,SRC SALEMAT2c,Basic,s,GovGE = V5BASc,s;

All,c,LOCCOMAll,s,SRCAll,l,SCLall,h,HH x3cs_sclc,s,l,h business scale household demand for goods ; All,c,LOCCOMAll,l,SCL x4_sclc,l Foreign exports by business scale ; All,c,LOCCOMAll,s,SRCAll,l,SCL x5cs_sclc,s,l business scale other demands ; All,c,COMAll,s,SRCall,i,INDAll,m,MARLOCCOMAll,l,SCL x1marg_sclc,s,i,m,l Usage of margins on production by business scale ; All,c,COMAll,s,SRCall,i,INDAll,m,MARLOCCOMAll,l,SCL x2marg_sclc,s,i,m,l Usage of margins on investment by business scale ; All,c,COMAll,s,SRCAll,m,MARLOCCOMAll,l,SCLall,h,HH x3marg_sclc,s,m,l,h Usage of margins on private cons by scale ; All,c,COMAll,m,MARLOCCOMAll,l,SCL x4marg_sclc,m,l Usage of margins on foreign exports by business scale ; All,c,COMAll,s,SRCAll,m,MARLOCCOMAll,l,SCL x5marg_sclc,s,m,l Usage of margins on other demands by business scale ; all,i,IND lsum1i Sum of scale shares in Indonesia-wide ind. production ; all,i,IND lsum2i Sum of scale shares in Indonesia-wide ind. investment ; All,c,COM lsum3c Sum of scale shares in Indonesia-wide consumption ; All,c,COM lsum4c Sum of scale shares in Indonesia-wide foreign exports ; All,c,COM lsum5c Sum of scale shares in Indonesia-wide other demands ; all,i,NATINDlsum_nati Sum of scale shares in Indonesia-wide production of nat. inds.; all,i,IND ffscl2i scale-uniform shifts in scshr2j,l from scshr1j,l ; All,c,COM ffscl3c business scale-uniform shifts in scshr3i,l ; All,c,COM ffscl4c business scale-uniform shifts in scshr4i,l ; All,c,COM ffscl5c business scale-uniform shifts in scshr5i,l ; all,i,INDAll,l,SCL fscl2i,l Commodity-specific complement of ffscl2 ; All,c,COMAll,l,SCL fscl3c,l Commodity-specific complement of ffscl3 ; All,c,COMAll,l,SCL fscl4c,l Commodity-specific complement of ffscl4 ; All,c,COMAll,l,SCL fscl5c,l Commodity-specific complement of ffscl5 ; all,i,INDAll,l,SCL scshr1i,l scale shares in Indonesia-wide industry production ; all,i,INDAll,l,SCL scshr2i,l scale shares in Indonesia-wide industry investment ; All,c,COMAll,l,SCL scshr3c,l scale shares in Indonesia-wide private consumption ; All,c,COMAll,l,SCL scshr4c,l scale shares in Indonesia-wide foreign exports ; All,c,COMAll,l,SCL scshr5c,l scale shares in Indonesia-wide other demands ; all,i,NATINDAll,l,SCL f_x1tot_li,l scale-specific deviations from normal nat.ind. rule; all,i,NATIND ff_x1tot_li scale-uniform deviations from normal nat.ind. rule ; All,l,SCL ztot_scll Real Gross Business Scale Products GSP; All,l,SCL persontot_scll Aggregate business scale employment, persons ; all,i,INDAll,l,SCL zcon_scli,l Contributions to deviations in total scale outputs from national GDP ; all,i,INDAll,l,SCL person_scli,l Employment by industry and business scale, persons ; All,l,SCL q_scll Population by business scale ; Excerpt 45 of TABLO input file: Business scale coefficients from database Coefficient all,i,INDAll,l,SCL SCLSHARE1i,l business scale output shares ; all,i,INDAll,l,SCL SCLSHARE2i,l business scale investment shares ; all,i,INDAll,l,SCL SCLSHAREi,l business scale consumption shares ; all,c,COMAll,l,SCL SCLSHARE3c,l business scale consumption shares ; all,c,COMAll,l,SCL SCLSHARE4c,l business scale export shares ; all,c,COMAll,l,SCL SCLSHARE5c,l business scale other shares ; Variable qnat national population: q is by household ; Read SCLSHARE1 from file mdata Header 1SCL; SCLSHARE2 from file mdata Header 2SCL; SCLSHARE3 from file mdata Header 3SCL; SCLSHARE4 from file mdata Header 4SCL; SCLSHARE5 from file mdata Header 5SCL; Update all,i,INDAll,l,SCL SCLSHARE1i,l = scshr1i,l; all,i,INDAll,l,SCL SCLSHARE2i,l = scshr2i,l; all,c,COMAll,l,SCL SCLSHARE3c,l = scshr3c,l; all,c,COMAll,l,SCL SCLSHARE4c,l = scshr4c,l; all,c,COMAll,l,SCL SCLSHARE5c,l = scshr5c,l; Excerpt 46 of TABLO input file: Business Scale coefficients calculated within model Coefficient all,i,INDAll,l,SCL LABINDSCLi,l Labour bills by industry and scale ; All,l,SCL LABSCLTOTl Total labour bill by scale ; all,i,INDAll,l,SCL VALUADDi,l Factor bills by industry and scale ; All,l,SCL VALUADDTOTl Total factor bill by business scale ; Formula all,i,INDAll,l,SCL LABINDSCLi,l = V1LAB_OiSCLSHARE1i,l; All,l,SCL LABSCLTOTl = Sumi,IND, LABINDSCLi,l; all,i,INDAll,l,SCL VALUADDi,l = V1PRIMiSCLSHARE1i,l; All,l,SCL VALUADDTOTl = SUMi,IND, VALUADDi,l; Zerodivide zero_by_zerodefault 0.1; Zerodivide nonzero_by_zerodefault 0.1; Formula all,i,INDAll,l,SCL SCLSHAREi,l = LABINDSCLi,lSUMs,SCL,LABINDSCLi,s; Zerodivide zero_by_zerooff; Zerodivide nonzero_by_zerooff; Write SCLSHARE to file SUMMARY header 3SHR longname Share of consumption; Coefficient All,c,LOCCOMAll,l,SCL TOTDEMSCLc,l All basic + margin use of good c in business scale l ; Excerpt 47 of TABLO input file: Business Scale formulae Formula All,c,MARLOCCOMAll,l,SCL TOTDEMSCLc,l = SUMi,IND, SCLSHARE1i,lV1BASc,dom,i + SUMi,IND, SCLSHARE2i,lV2BASc,dom,i + Sumh,HH,V3BASc,dom,hSCLSHARE3c,l + V4BAScSCLSHARE4c,l + V5BASc,domSCLSHARE5c,l + SUMu,COM, V4MARu,cSCLSHARE4u,l + SUMs,Src,SUMh,HH, V3MARu,s,c,hSCLSHARE3u,l + V5MARu,s,cSCLSHARE5u,l+ SUMi,IND, SCLSHARE1i,lV1MARu,s,i,c + SCLSHARE2i,lV2MARu,s,i,c ; Formula All,c,NONMARLOCCOMAll,l,SCL TOTDEMSCLc,l = SUMi,IND, SCLSHARE1i,lV1BASc,dom,i + SUMi,IND, SCLSHARE2i,lV2BASc,dom,i + SUMh,HH,V3BASc,dom,hSCLSHARE3c,l + V4BAScSCLSHARE4c,l + V5BASc,domSCLSHARE5c,l; Excerpt 48 of TABLO input file: Business scale equations: direct and marginal demands follow business scale shares Equation E_x1csi_scl Direct intermediate demands by industry and business scale All,c,LOCCOMAll,s,Srcall,i,INDAll,l,SCL x1csi_sclc,s,i,l = x1c,s,i + scshr1i,l; E_x2csi_scl Direct investment demands by industry and business scale All,c,LOCCOMAll,s,Srcall,i,INDAll,l,SCL x2csi_sclc,s,i,l = x2c,s,i + scshr2i,l; E_x3cs_scl Consumption by business scale All,c,LOCCOMAll,l,SCLAll,s,Srcall,h,HH x3cs_sclc,s,l,h = x3c,s,h + scshr3c,l; E_x4_scl Foreign exports by business scale All,c,LOCCOMAll,l,SCL x4_sclc,l = x4c + scshr4c,l; E_x5cs_scl Other demands by business scale All,c,LOCCOMAll,s,SrcAll,l,SCL x5cs_sclc,s,l = x5c,s + scshr5c,l; E_x1marg_scl margin intermediate demands by industry and business scale all,c,COMAll,s,Srcall,i,INDAll,m,MARLOCCOMAll,l,SCL x1marg_sclc,s,i,m,l = x1marc,s,i,m + scshr1i,l; E_x2marg_scl margin investment demands by industry and business scale all,c,COMAll,s,Srcall,i,INDAll,m,MARLOCCOMAll,l,SCL x2marg_sclc,s,i,m,l = x2marc,s,i,m + scshr2i,l; E_x3marg_scl margin private consumption by business scale all,c,COMAll,s,SrcAll,m,MARLOCCOMAll,l,SCLall,h,HH x3marg_sclc,s,m,l,h = x3marc,s,m,h + scshr3c,l; E_x4marg_scl margin to foreign export by business scale all,c,COMAll,m,MARLOCCOMAll,l,SCLx4marg_sclc,m,l = x4marc,m + scshr4c,l; E_x5marg_scl margins to other by business scale all,c,COMAll,s,SrcAll,m,MARLOCCOMAll,l,SCL x5marg_sclc,s,m,l = x5marc,s,m + scshr5c,l; E_scshr1 business scale shares of industry production all,i,INDAll,l,SCL scshr1i,l = x1tot_li,l - x1toti; E_scshr2 scale shares of industry investment related to regional production shares all,i,INDAll,l,SCLscshr2i,l = scshr1i,l + fscl2i,l+ ffscl2i; E_qnat Indonesia-wide population equals sum of business scale populations Suml,SCL,LABSCLTOTlqnat = Sums,SCL,LABSCLTOTsq_scls; E_scshr3 scale shares in private consn move with regional labour income shares all,c,COMAll,l,SCL scshr3c,l = labrev_scll - w1lab_io + fscl3c,l+ ffscl3c; E_scshr4 business scale shares in foreign exports all,c,COMAll,l,SCL scshr4c,l = fscl4c,l+ ffscl4c; E_scshr5 business scale shares in other demands all,c,COMAll,l,SCL scshr5c,l = fscl5c,l+ ffscl5c; E_lsum1 For checking purposes: rsum1 should be endogenous and zero all,i,IND Suml,SCL, SCLSHARE1i,lscshr1i,l = lsum1i; E_lsum2 For checking purposes: rsum2 should be endogenous and zero all,i,IND Suml,SCL, SCLSHARE2i,lscshr2i,l = lsum2i; E_lsum3 For checking purposes: rsum3 should be endogenous and zero all,c,COM Suml,SCL, SCLSHARE3c,lscshr3c,l = lsum3c; E_lsum4 For checking purposes: rsum4 should be zero all,c,COM Suml,SCL, SCLSHARE4c,lscshr4c,l = lsum4c; E_lsum5 Used to ensure rsum5 is zero all,c,COM Suml,SCL, SCLSHARE5c,lscshr5c,l = lsum5c; Excerpt 42 of TABLO input file: Output of three Business scale industry types Equation E_x0_scl_A Output of nonmargins local commodities, Green book, eq39.8a All,i,NONMARLOCCOMAll,l,SCL TOTDEMscli,lx0_scli,l = SUMj,IND, SCLSHARE1j,lV1BASi,dom,jx1csi_scli,dom,j,l + SUMj,IND, SCLSHARE2j,lV2BASi,dom,jx2csi_scli,dom,j,l + SCLSHARE3i,lSUM{h,HH,V3BASi,dom,hx3cs_scli,dom,l,h} + V4BASiSCLSHARE4i,lx4_scli,l + V5BASi,domSCLSHARE5i,lx5cs_scli,dom,l; E_x0_scl_B Usage of margins local commodities All,c,MARLOCCOMAll,l,SCL TOTDEMsclc,lx0_sclc,l = SUMi,IND, SCLSHARE1i,lV1BASc,dom,ix1csi_sclc,dom,i,l + SUMi,IND, SCLSHARE2i,lV2BASc,dom,ix2csi_sclc,dom,i,l + SCLSHARE3c,lSUMh,HH,V3BASc,dom,hx3cs_sclc,dom,l,h + V4BAScSCLSHARE4c,lx4_sclc,l + V5BASc,domSCLSHARE5c,lx5cs_sclc,dom,l + SUMu,COM, V4MARu,cSCLSHARE4u,lx4marg_sclu,c,l + SCLSHARE3u,lSUMs,Src,SUMh,HH, V3MARu,s,c,hx3marg_sclu,s,c,l,h + SUMs,Src,V5MARu,s,cSCLSHARE5u,lx5marg_sclu,s,c,l + SUMi,IND, SCLSHARE1i,lV1MARu,s,i,cx1marg_sclu,s,i,c,l + SCLSHARE2i,lV2MARu,s,i,cx2marg_sclu,s,i,c,l ; E_x1tot_l_A Supplies of local commodities related to production of local industries All,c,LOCCOMAll,l,SCL x0_sclc,l = SUMj,IND, {MAKEc,jMAKE_Ic}x1tot_lj,l; E_x1tot_l_B Output of national industries eq39.2, DPSV P.260 all,i,NATINDAll,l,SCL x1tot_li,l = x1toti + f_x1tot_li,l + ff_x1tot_li+ zcon_scli,l; E_lsum_nat Adding up rule for national industries: lsum_nat normally end. and zero all,i,NATIND SUMl,SCL, SCLSHARE1i,lx1tot_li,l = x1toti + lsum_nati; Excerpt 49 of TABLO input file: Extra scale equations for reporting variables Equation E_labrev_scl Total wage bills by business scale All,l,SCL LABSCLTOTllabrev_scll = SUMi,IND, SCLSHARE1i,l SUMo,OCC, V1LABi,o{scshr1i,l + p1labi,o + x1labi,o} ; E_ztot_scl Gross business scale Products income weights All,l,SCL ztot_scll = x1prim_i + SUMi,IND, zcon_scli,l; E_zcon_scl Contributions to deviations in total scale outputs from national GDP all,i,INDAll,l,SCL zcon_scli,l = {[VALUADDi,lVALUADDTOTl] - [V1PRIMiSUMk,IND, V1PRIMk]}[x1tot_li,l - x1prim_i] + [V1PRIMiSUMk,IND, V1PRIMk] [x1tot_li,l - x1toti]; E_persontot_scl aggregate business scale employment All,l,SCL LABSCLTOTlpersontot_scll = SUMi,IND, LABINDSCLi,lperson_scli,l; E_person_scl employment by business scale and industry all,i,INDAll,l,SCL person_scli,l = x1lab_oi + scshr1i,l; Display LABINDSCL; Display LABSCLTOT; end of addition end of file Lampiran 6. Closure dalam Model CGE INDUSTRINDO Exogenous gret ; IND Gross rate of return = Rental[Price of new capital] Exogenous employ_i;aggregate employment,wage bill weights Exogenous q ; HH Number of households Exogenous f5 ; COMSRC Government demand shift Exogenous f4p ; COM Price upward shift in export demand schedule Exogenous f4q ; COM Quantity right shift in export demands Exogenous fx6 ; COMSRC Shifter on rule for stocks Exogenous pe ; COM Basic price of export commodity Exogenous a3_s ; COMHH Taste change, hhold impdom composite Exogenous a1fac ; AGRIFACAGIND Primary factor tech. change, agri. Exogenous a1tot ; IND All input augmenting technical change Exogenous a2tot ; IND Neutral technical change - investment Exogenous f1oct ; IND Shift in price of other cost tickets Exogenous t0imp ; COM Power of tariff Exogenous a1faco ; N_AGRIFACN_AGIND Prim. factor tech. change, other Exogenous f5tot2 ; 1 Ratio between f5tot and x3tot Exogenous fgov_f ; TYPE Shift in transfers: govt. -- foreign Exogenous fgov_h ; HHTYPE Shift in transfers: govt. -- households Exogenous pf0cif ; COM C.I.F. foreign currency import prices Exogenous f0tax_s ; COM General sales tax shifter Exogenous f3tot_h ; HH Ratio, consumptionincome by hh Exogenous f3tax_s ; 1 Uniform change in powers of taxes on hh usage Exogenous f5tax_cs ; 1 Uniform change in powers of taxes on gov. usage Exogenous f1inc_tax ; 1 Overall income tax shifter Exogenous f1lab_i_x ; OCC Skill-specific labour shifter Exogenous f1tax_csi ; 1 Uniform change in powers of taxes on intermediate usage Exogenous f2tax_csi ; 1 Uniform change in powers of taxes on investment Exogenous x1cap_vah ; HH variable capital by household, agri. Exogenous x1cap_vnh ; HH variable capital by household, non-agri. Exogenous x1lab_i_h ; OCCHH Household labour supply Exogenous x1lndi_hh ; AGINDHH Household supply of land, agri. Exogenous x1cap_f_hh ; N_AGINDHH fixed capital by hhold, non-ag. Exogenous finv3 ; IND Shifter for longrun investment rule Exogenous invslack ; 1 Investment slack variable for exogenizing agg. investment Exogenous ffscl2 ; IND Exogenous ffscl3 ; COM Exogenous ffscl4 ; COM Exogenous ffscl5 ; COM Exogenous ff_x1tot_l ; NATIND Exogenous f_x1tot_l ; NATINDSCL Exogenous fscl2 ; INDSCL Exogenous fscl3 ; COMSCL Exogenous fscl4 ; COMSCL Exogenous fscl5 ; COMSCL Exogenous q_scl ; SCL Rest endogenous; ABSTRACT HERU KUSTANTO. The Deindustrializsation and Impact of Reindustrialisation on Macro Economy and Economic Performance of Non-Oil and Gas Industrial Sectors in Indonesia RINA OKTAVIANI as Chairman, BONAR M. SINAGA and MUHAMMAD FIRDAUS as Member of the Advisory Committee. The objectives of the study were to analyze factors affecting deindustrialisation and to analyze impact of reindustrialisation on macro economy and economic performance of non-oil and gas industrial sector in Indonesia. Deindustrialisation in this study measured with declining of a share of output from non-oil and gas industrial sector. The study used regression and estimated using Ordinary Least Squares OLS method to analyze factors affecting deindustrialization and Computable General Equilibrium CGE to analyze impact of reindustrialisation on macro economy and economic performance of non-oil and gas industrial sectors. The main analysis used comparative static of CGE model CGE INDUSTRINDO that built with combine from other CGE models. The results have shown that in the long term from demand side, deindustrialisation were affected negatively by investment share and export share of industrial goods. Deindustrialisation were affected positively by share of imported industrial goods. From the supply side, deindustrialisation were affected positively by real wage, real price of fuel and were affected negatively by the technology used in industrial sectors. Reindustrialisation were done by simulation of increasing investment of non-oil and gas industrial sectors, increasing export of non-oil and gas industrial goods, reducing import of non-oil and gas industrial goods, and increasing a productivity in non-oil and gas industrial sectors. The results have shown that all simulation increased macro economy performance i.e. output or Gross Domestic Product GDP and increased share of non-oil and gas industrial sector in total GDP. Reindustrialisation with increasing of investment increased the output of small, medium scale industry more higher than large scale industry. Finally, to increase a growth and a share of industrial sector can be done through increasing investment both local and foreign direct investment; increasing of exports and reducing import value of industrial goods; and increasing the technology and productivity of non- oil and gas industrial sectors. Keywords :Deindustrialisation, Reindustrialisation, Computable General Equilibrium, Macro Economy, Small, Medium and Large Industry

I. PENDAHULUAN

1.1. Latar Belakang

Tidak dapat dipungkiri bahwa industrialisasi di Indonesia sejak Pelita I hingga saat ini telah mencapai hasil yang diharapkan dengan telah terjadinya transformasi struktural di Indonesia. Pola pertumbuhan secara sektoral di Indonesia sejalan dengan kecenderungan proses transformasi struktural yang terjadi di berbagai negara yaitu terjadi penurunan kontribusi sektor pertanian yang sering disebut sektor primer, sementara itu di sisi lain kontribusi sektor sekunder dan tersier cenderung meningkat. Selama 30 tahun sebelum terjadinya krisis keuangan dan ekonomi pada tahun 19971998, sektor industri Indonesia mengalami transformasi dan pertumbuhan yang cepat. Tidak seperti negara-negara Asia Tenggara lainnya, Indonesia pada pertengahan tahun 1960-an tidak banyak melakukan pembangunan sektor industri moderen. Namun demikian, pada pertengahan tahun 1990-an Indonesia dikelompokkan sebagai salah satu negara di Asia Timur sebagai Negara Industri Baru Newly Industrializing Economies oleh Bank Dunia bersama dengan Malaysia dan Thailand. Sejak tahun 1980-an ketiga negara Asia Tenggara tersebut mengalami suatu lompatan dalam ekspor produk-produk industri, walaupun dalam skala yang lebih kecil seperti yang telah dicapai oleh empat macan Asia seperti Korea Selatan, Taiwan, Hong Kong dan Singapura Bank Dunia, 1993 dalam Thee Kian Wie, 2000. Secara perlahan kontribusi sektor industri dalam pembentukan Produk Domestik Bruto PDB melampaui kontribusi sektor pertanian yang pada awal- 2 awal pembangunan ekonomi mendominasi perekonomian nasional. Pada tahun 1971, sektor pertanian masih memegang peranan yang dominan dalam struktur perekonomian nasional dengan kontribusinya terhadap PDB mencapai 44.83 persen. Sementara itu, pada tahun yang sama sektor industri baru memberikan kontribusi sekitar 8.36 persen. Pada tahun 2004 kontribusi sektor industri pada PDB mencapai puncaknya menjadi 28.37 persen, sementara sektor pertanian turun menjadi hanya 14.9 persen. Namun demikian, sektor industri terus menurun kontribusinya dalam PDB yang pada tahun 2010 mencapai 25.76 persen Badan Pusat Statistik, 2011. Sementara itu, penelitian Hayashi 2005 menunjukkan bahwa dari periode 1995-2000, sektor industri manufaktur Indonesia mengalami peningkatan dalam pangsa produksi, penguatan orientasi ekspor, dan menurunnya ketergantungan impor. Laporan Bank Dunia 1993 menyimpulkan beberapa permasalahan struktural pada industri Indonesia. Pertama, tingginya tingkat konsentrasi dalam perekonomian dan banyaknya monopoli, baik yang terselubung maupun terang- terangan pada pasar yang diproteksi. Kedua, dominasi kelompok bisnis pemburu rente rent seeking ternyata belum memanfaatkan keunggulan mereka dalam skala produksi dan kekuatan finansial untuk bersaing di pasar global. Ketiga, lemahnya hubungan intra industri, sebagaimana ditunjukkan oleh minimnya perusahaan yang bersifat spesialis yang mampu menghubungkan klien bisnisnya yang berjumlah besar secara efisien. Keempat, struktur industri Indonesia terbukti masih dangkal, dengan minimnya sektor industri menengah. Kelima, masih kakunya BUMN sebagai pemasok input maupun sebagai pendorong kemajuan teknologi. Keenam, investor asing masih cenderung pada orientasi pasar domestik inward oriented, dan sasaran usahanya sebagian besar masih pada pasar yang diproteksi.