b,c b,c,d

84 Logistic Regression Lampiran 89 Case Processing Summary Unweighted Cases a N Percent Selected Cases Included in Analysis 46 100,0 Missing Cases ,0 Total 46 100,0 Unselected Cases ,0 Total 46 100,0 a. If weight is in effect, see classification table for the total number of cases. Iteration History

a,b,c

Iteration -2 Log likelihood Coefficients Constant Step 0 1 63,770 ,000 a. Constant is included in the model. b. Initial -2 Log Likelihood: 63,770 c. Estimation terminated at iteration number 1 because parameter estimates changed by less than ,001. Iteration History

a,b,c,d

Iteration -2 Log likelihood Coefficients Constant X1 X2 Step 1 1 54,411 1,024 -1,402 -,180 2 53,990 1,157 -1,521 -,253 3 53,943 1,176 -1,523 -,287 4 53,941 1,180 -1,523 -,294 5 53,941 1,180 -1,523 -,294 a. Method: Enter b. Constant is included in the model. c. Initial -2 Log Likelihood: 63,770 d. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because parameter estimates changed by less than ,001. Model Summary Step -2 Log likelihood Cox Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 1 53,941 a ,192 ,256 a. Estimation terminated at iteration number 5 because parameter estimates changed by less than ,001. Universitas Sumatera Utara 85 Lampiran 99 Contingency Table for Hosmer and Lemeshow Test Status Kegagalan Bank = Tidak Gagal Status Kegagalan Bank = Gagal Total Observed Expected Observed Expected Step 1 1 4 4,708 1 ,292 5 2 5 3,466 1,534 5 3 5 3,081 1,919 5 4 2 2,861 3 2,139 5 5 2 2,777 3 2,223 5 6 2,132 5 2,868 5 7 2 1,383 3 3,617 5 8 1 1,206 4 3,794 5 9 2 1,385 4 4,615 6 Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp B 95 C.I.for EXPB Lower Upper Step 1 a X1 -1,423 ,679 4,386 1 ,036 ,241 ,064 ,913 X3 -,727 ,681 1,141 1 ,285 ,483 ,127 1,835 Constant 1,228 ,560 4,808 1 ,028 3,413 a. Variables entered on step 1: X1, X3. Classification Table a Observed Predicted Status Kegagalan Bank Percentage Correct Tidak Gagal Gagal Step 1 Status Kegagalan Bank Tidak Gagal 18 5 78,3 Gagal 9 14 60,9 Overall Percentage 69,6 a. The cut value is ,500 Variables not in the Equation Score df Sig. Step 0 Variables X1 4,293 1 ,038 X3 3,959 1 ,047 Overall Statistics 9,257 2 ,010 Universitas Sumatera Utara 68 DAFTAR PUSTAKA Ahmed, A.S., Takeda, C., and Thomas, S. 1999. “Bank Loan Loss Provisions: A Reexamination of Capital Management, Earning Management and Signalling Effects”, Journal of Accounting and Economics Ali, Masyhud 2004. Asset Liability Management: Menyiasati Risiko Pasar dan Risiko Operasional dalam Perbankan. Jakarta: Elex Media Komputindo. , Volume 28 hal 1-25. Altman, Edward I. 1968. “Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis and The Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy”, Journal of Banking and Finance, Arena, M. 2008.“Bank Failures and Bank Fundamentals: A Comparative Analysis of Latin America and East Asia during The Nineties Using Bank Level Data”, Volume 19 hal 393-430. Journal of Banking and Finance Berger, Allen. N, Richard J. Herring, and Giorgio P. Szeg 1995. “The Role of Capital in Financial Institutions”, , Volume 32 hal 299-310. Journal of Banking Finance Cole, R. A., and White, L. J. 2012.“De Javu all Over Again: The Causes of US Commercial Bank Failures this time around”, , Volume 19 hal 393-430 Journal of Financial Service Research Demirgui-Kunt, Asli and Ross Levina. 1996. “Stock Markets, Corporate Finance, and Economic Growth: An Overview”, , Volume 42 hal 5-29. The World Bank Economic Review, Volume 10 Nomor 2 hal 223-239. Universitas Sumatera Utara 69 Elliot. A. John. 1991. “The Evaluation by the Financial Markets of Changes in Bank Loan Loss Reserve Levels”, The Accounting Review Fahmi, Irfan 2014. Pengantar Perbankan Teori dan Aplikasi. Bandung: Alfabeta , Volume 66, Nomor 4 hal 847-861. Hatfield, Gay and Carol Lancaster 2000. “The Signalling Effects of Bank Loan- Loss Reserve Additions”, Journal of Financial and Strategic Decisions Hendro, Tri dan Conny Tjandra Rahardja 2014.Bank dan Institusi Non Bank di Indonesia. Yogyakarta: UPP STIM YKPN. , Volume 13 Nomor 1 hal 57-73. Jin, J. Y., Kangaretnam, K., and Lobo, G. J, 2011, “Ability of Accounting and Audit Quality Variables to Predict Bank Failure During the Financial Crisis”, Journal of Banking and Finance Kristanti, Farida Titik, 2014, “Prediksi Kebangkrutan Bank-Bank yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia”, , Volume 35 hal 2811-2819. Jurnal Keuangan dan Perbankan MacDonald, S Scott 2006.Management of Banking. United States of America: Thomson Learning Academic Resource Center. , Volume 18, Nomor 1 hal 130-138. Martin, Daniel 1977. “Early Warning of Bank Failure : A Logit Regression Approach”, Journal of Banking and Finance Meyer, A. Paul and Howard W. Pifer. “Prediction of Bank Failures”, , Volume 1 hal 249-276. Journal of Finance Mishkin, Frederic S 2008. The Economics of Money, Banking, and Financial Markets. Jakarta: Salemba Empat , Volume 25 Nomor 4 hal853-868. Universitas Sumatera Utara 70 Muljono, Teguh Pudjo 1996. Bank Budgetting Profit Planning and Control. Yogyakarta: BPFE Rose, Peter S dan Sylvia C Hudgins 2005.Bank Management and Financial Services. United States: Mc Graw Hill International. Sastradipoera, Komaruddin 2004. Strategi Manajemen Bisnis Perbankan. Bandung: Kappa Sigma. Senbett, Lemma W and Tracy Yue Wang. 2012. “Corporate Financial Distress and Bankruptcy: A Survey”, Journal of Banking and Finance Siamat, Dahlan. 2005. Manajemen Lembaga Keuangan Kebijakan Moneter dan Perbankan. Edisi V. Jakarta: Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Indonesia , hal 1-78. Sinkey, Joseph F 2005. Commercial Bank Financial Management.University of Georgia Sugiyanto, FX, Prasetiono dan Teddy Hariyanto, 2002,”Manfaat Indikator Indikator Keuangan Dalam Pembentukan Model Prediksi Kondisi Kesehatan Perbankan”, Jurnal Bisnis Strategi Sukarno, Hari, 2005,”Informasi Akuntansi Keuangan dan Kegagalan Bank Umum di Indonesia”, , Volume 10, Nomor 7, hal 11-26. Simposium Nasional Akuntansi VIII Sumantri dan Teddy Jurnali, 2010, “Manfaat Rasio Keuangan dalam Memprediksi Kepailitan Bank Nasional”, , September, IAI, hal. 27-44. Jurnal Bisnis dan Akuntansi, Volume 12, Nomor 1, hal 39-52. Universitas Sumatera Utara 71 Thomson, James B. 1980. “Predicting bank failures in the 1980s”,Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Economic Review Undang-Undang No. 15 12 PBI Tahun 2013 tentang Kewajiban Penyediaan Modal Minimum, Bank Indonesia, Jakarta. , Volume 27 hal 9–20. Undang-Undang No 14 15 PBI 2012 tentang Penilaian Kualitas Aset Bank Umum, Bank Indonesia, Jakarta. Wall, D. L., and Koch, T. W. 2000. “Bank Loan-Loss Accounting: A Review of Theoritical and Empirical Evidence”, Economic Review Whitaker, Richard B. 1999. “The Early Stages of Financial Distress”, , Q22000, 1-20. Journal of Economics and Finance Wruck, Karen Hopper. 1990. “Financial distress, Reorganization, and Organizational Efficiency”, , Volume 23 Nomor 2 hal 123-I33. Journal of Financial Economics, Volume 27 hal 419-444. Universitas Sumatera Utara 33 BAB III METODE PENELITIAN

3.1 Jenis Penelitian