Bank syariah harus meningkatkan kondisi sumber daya manusia SDM

121 3. Mitigasi risiko yang dilakukan bank untuk meminimlisir masalah moral hazard dan adverse selection adalah batasan suatu usaha yang dijalankan oleh calon nasabah, penyeleksian yang sangat ketat yang dilakukan oleh bank baik lewat dokumen maupun langsung kelapangan, penetapan jaminan atau agunan bagi seluruh nasabah pembiayaan mudharabah, asuransi yang dilakukan oleh bank terhadap nasabah tersebut, baik asuransi barang agunan maupun usaha yang dijalankan nasabah serta monitoring berkala langsung kelapangan yang dilakukan oleh bank bagi setiap nasabah pembiayaan mudharabah.

B. Implikasi

Berdasarkan kesimpulan di atas, penulis menyampaikan hal-hal sebagai berikut :

1. Bank syariah harus meningkatkan kondisi sumber daya manusia SDM

bank, kualitas bisnis bank, dan keterlibatan pihak lain dalam melakukan bisnis, lebih mempehatikan prinsip 5C character, capacity, collatearl, dan condition terutama dalam melihat karakter nasabah, serta melakukan pengawasan yang lebih intensif agar NPF yang disebabkan oleh adverse selection maupun moral hazard dapat diminimalisir 2. Bank syariah perlu mengetahui jenis pembiayaan-pembiayaan yang berpotensi mengalami pembiayaan bermasalah selain pembiayaan mudharabah dan musyarakah, sehingga bank tidak hanya mengantisipasi risiko untuk pembiayaan mudharabah tetapi risiko-risiko pembiayaan lain dapat teratasi 122 3. Perlu adanya kebijakan-kebijakan bank untuk meminimalisir risiko pembiayaan mudharabah, agar pembiayaan mudharabah dapat berkembang di dunia perbankan, karena walaupun pembiayaan ini memiliki risiko yang tinggi tetapi pembiayaan ini juga memiliki tingkat keuntungan yang tinggi pula karena pembiayaan mudharabah berkaitan langsung dengan sektor riil sehingga diharapkan mampu untuk meningkatkan kesejahteraan umat. 123 DAFTAR PUSTAKA Alhamda, Syukra. Buku Ajar Metlit dan Statistik, deepublish, Yogyakarta, 2016. Algoud, LM dan Mervyn, K.L. Perbankan Syariah:Prinsip Praktik Prospek,PT Serambi Ilmu semesta, 2003. Ardiansyah, Misnen. Bayang-bayang teori keagenan pada produk Pembiayaan Perbankan Syariah, Jurnal Wacana Hukum Islam dan Kemanusiaan: ISSN 1411-9544, 2014. Asnaini, Sri Wahyuni. Faktor-Faktor yang memperngaruhi Non Performing Financing Pada Bank Umum Syariah di Indonesia, Jurnal TekunVolume V, No. 02, Jakarta, September 2014. Bakhtiar, Toni dan Sugema, Iman. Masalah Informasi Asimetrik Dalam Sistem Perbankan Syariah : Adverse Selection Problem, Jurnal, 2012. Barokah Nurlaela Syahril dan Kurniasih Afiati. Persepsi Manajemen Bank Umum Syariah Terhadap Kemungkinan Penerapan Per Profit Equalization Reserve Ditinjau Dari Sisi Akuntansi Bank Syariah , Jurnal Nisbah Volume 1 No.2, Bogor, 2015 Dreher, Axel. Does the IMF cause moral hazard? Acritical review of the evidence, Univercity of Konstanz and Thurgau Institute Of Economic, Germany, 2004. Eisenhardt, Kathleen. M. Agency Theory: An Assessment and Review, The Academy of Management Review, Vol. 14, No. 1, Januari 1989. Ghozali, Imam. Statistik Nonparametik, Badan Penerbit UNDIP, Semarang , 2006. Goldstein, Morris. The Asian Financial Crisis, Policy Briefs 98-1, Institute for International Economics, 1998. Hamid, Abdul. Pedoman Penulisan Skripsi, Jakarta, 2007. IB, Perbankan Syariah. Indikasi Moral Hazard: Perbankan Syariah Lebih Tinggi Dibanding Perbankan Konvensiona, paper, 2009. Ibrahim, Taswan dan Ragimun.Moral Hazard Dan Pencegahannya Pada Industri Perbankan di Indonesia, Jurnal,2011. 124 Imanuddin, Muhammad. Mudharabah dan Optimalisasi Sektor Riil. Dipetik 29 Juni 2016, dari Zona Ekonomi Islam: http:zonaeksis.com. Jensen, Michael C. Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance, and Takeovers, The American Economic Review, Vol. 76, No. 2, May 1986. Jensen, Michael C dan Meckling, William H. Theory of the Firm: Managerial Behavior,Agency Cost and Ownership Structure, Journal of Financial Economics, Vol.3, No.4, October 1976. Karim, Adiwarman. Ekonomi Makro Islam,PT Raja Grafindo, Jakarta, 2010. Linda, M. R., Megawati, dan Deflinawati. Pengaruh Inflasi, Kurs Dan Tingkat Suku Bunga Terhadap Non Performing Loan Pada PT. Bank Tabungan Negara Persero Tbk Cabang Padang, Journal of Economic and Economic Education Vol.3 No.2, 2015. Manzilati, Asfi. Kesepakatan Kelembagaan Kontrak Mudharabah dalam Kerangka Teori Keagenan, Jurnal Keuangan dan Perbankan, Vol.15, No.2, Malang, 2011. Mishkin, Frederic S.Ekonomi Uang, Perbankan, dan Pasar Keuangan, Salemba Empat, Jakarta, 2008. Mitnick, Barry M. The Hazard of Agency, Katz Graduate School of business Univercity of Pittsburg, Jurnal, October 1996. Multifiah1, Manzilati Asfi dan Hurriati, Laili. Masalah Keagenan dan Penegakan pada Pembiayaan Mudharabah: Studi pada Baitul Maal wa Tamwil Usaha Gabungan Terpadu Sidogiri Cabang Malang. International Journal of Social and Local Economic Governance IJLEG, Malang, 2015. Muhammad.Lembaga Keuangan Mikro Syariah Pergulatan Melawan Kemiskinan dan Penetrasi Ekonomi Global, Graha Ilmu, Yogyakarta, 2009. Murni, Afsia. Ekonomika Makro, PT Refika Aditama, Bandung, 2006. Mutamimah dan Chasanah, S. N. Analisis eksternal dan internal dalam menentukan Non Performing Financing Bank umum Syariah di Indonesia, Jurnal Bisnis dan Ekonomi JBE, Vol. 19 No. 1, Semarang 2012. Nasution, Anwar. Masalah-Masalah Sistem Keuangan dan Perbankan Indonesia, Jakarta, 2003. 125 Nasution, Mustafa Edwin dan Wiliasih, Ranti. Profit Sharing dan Moral Hazard dalam Penyaluran Dana Pihak Ketiga Bank Umum Syariah, Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia JEPI, hal.238, 2007. Peraturan Bank Indonesia Nomor 1323PBI2011. Tentang Penerapan Manajemen Risiko Bagi bank Umum Syariah dan Unit Usaha Syariah Prabowo, Dani. Kejaksaan Agung Akui Hentikan Kasus Kredit Macet Bank Bukopin, Dipetik 29 Juni , 2016, dari http:nasional.kompas.com RahmanHakim, Arif. Stasioneritas, Akar Unit, Kointegrasi Pengantar Time Series, hal.05, 2015. Rahmawati, Teti. Pengaruh indikasi moral hazard dalam penyaluran pembiayaan terhadap pertumbuhan dana bank syariah, melalui monitoring dan profit sharing sebagai variabel intervening,Tesis, Unpad, 2010. Rahmawulan, Yunis. Perbandingan Faktor Penyebab NPL dan NPF pada Bank Konvensional dan Bank Syariah di Indonesia, Tesis Program Pascasarjana Universitas Indonesia, 2008. Rivai, Veithzal. Islamic Financial Management, Raja Grafindo Persada, Jakarta 2008. Rodoni, Ahmad dan Ali, Herni. Manajemen Keuangan Modern. Mitra Wacana Media. Jakarta, 2014. Siregar, Mulya E. Pertumbuhan Bank Syariah Melambat Drastis Ini Penyebabnya, dipetik 29 Juni 2016, dari http:www.beritasatu.com. Sugiyono. Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif, Kualitatif dan RD, Alfabeta, Bandung, 2009. Sukirno, Sadono. Teori Pengantar Makro Ekonomi, PT. Raja Grafindo Persada, Jakarta 2011. Susanti, Vera.Pengaruh Equivalent rate dan Tingkat Keuntungan terhadap Dana Pihak Ketiga DPK Perbankan Syariah di Indonesia, Jurnal I-Finance Vol.1. No.1. Juli 2015 Tarsidin. Bagi hasil: Konsep dan analisis, Fakultas Ekonomi Universitas Indonesia, Jakarta, 2010. 126 Usanti, Trisadini Prasastinah dan Shomad, A. Penyelesaian Pembiayaan Bermasalah Bank Syariah, Laporan Penelitian, Fakultas Hukum Unair, 2008. Vaubel, Roland. The Moral Hazard of IMF Lending, World Economy 6 no.3, 1983. Vo, Duc Hong dan Nguyen, Van Thanh Yen. Managerial Ownership, Leverage and Dividend Policies: Empirical Evidence from Vietnam’s Listed Firms, International Journal of Economics and Finance; Vol. 6, No. 5, Vietnam, 2014. Wibowo, Martino.Analisis Faktor-faktor Makro Ekonomi Terhadap Pembiayaan Bank Syariah di Indonesia dan Malaysia Tesis Program Pascasarjana Ilmu Ekonomi, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor, 2014 Widarjono, Agus Ekonometrika, Teori dan Aplikasi Edisi Pertama, Ekonisia, Yogyakarta, 2005. Winarno, Wing Wahyu. Analisis Ekonometrika dan Statistika dengan Ewiews Edisi 4, UPP STIM YKPN, Yogyakarta, 2015. Yasin, Ach. Analisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi non performing financing NPF di industri bank pembiayaan rakyat BPR syariah di Indonesia, Akrual 5 2 2014: 183-203 e-ISSN: 2502-6380, Februari 2014. Zainal, Gekan Purnama. Pengaruh Nisbah Bagi Hasil Profit Sharing Ratio Terhadap Tingkat Pembiayaan Non-Lancar Non Performing Financing Pada Transaksi Pembiayaan Mudharabah Survey Pada Bank Syariah Jabar Di Bandung, 2009. Zulkifli, Sunarto. Panduan Praktis Transaksi Perbankan Syariah, Zikrul Hakim, Jakarta 2007. Data Statistik Perbankan Syariah, Data Diakses pada 26 Juni 2016 dari http:www.ojk.go.id Data Inflasi Indeks harga Konsumen, Data Diakses pada 26 Juni 2016 dari http:www.bi.go.id Data Pendapatan Nasional, Data Diakses 26 Juni 2016 dari https:www.bps.go.id 127 DAFTAR LAMPIRAN Lampiran 1 : Data Penelitian Januari 2012-Februari 2015 Tahun Bulan NPF GDP INF Rasio MM MPLS Rasio RMFM TBH 2012 Jan 2,68 609822,20 3,65 7,84 5,57 15,99 Feb 2,82 618635,70 3,56 6,49 5,76 16,06 Mar 2,76 627122,40 3,97 6,23 5,89 16,03 Apr 2,85 635282,20 4,50 6,64 5,98 15,88 Mei 2,93 643115,20 4,45 6,77 6,16 15,82 Jun 2,88 650621,30 4,53 6,78 6,21 16,02 Jul 2,92 662767,00 4,56 6,83 6,42 15,76 Agst 2,78 665894,60 4,58 6,85 6,60 16,08 Sep 2,74 664970,70 4,31 6,01 6,79 15,94 Okt 2,58 651910,30 4,61 6,95 7,08 15,95 Nov 2,50 648946,70 4,32 7,03 7,27 15,72 Des 2,22 647995,10 4,30 7,15 7,32 14,90 2013 Jan 2,49 648336,80 4,57 8,67 7,46 16,10 Feb 2,72 651948,20 5,31 8,37 7,70 15,78 Mar 2,75 658110,60 5,90 8,55 8,05 15,77 Apr 2,85 670800,20 5,57 8,66 8,18 15,61 Mei 2,92 679082,60 5,47 8,64 8,23 15,49 Jun 2,64 686933,80 5,90 8,64 8,12 14,93 Jul 2,75 699344,20 8,61 8,63 7,88 16,03 Agst 3,01 702590,60 8,79 8,53 7,90 15,35 Sep 2,80 701663,20 8,40 8,46 7,99 15,04 Okt 2,96 688665,80 8,32 8,42 7,87 15,19 Nov 3,08 685313,10 8,37 8,42 7,79 14,55 Des 2,62 683708,70 8,38 8,42 8,11 14,40 2014 Jan 3,01 682357,40 8,22 9,34 8,24 14,42 Feb 3,53 685371,60 7,75 8,35 8,27 14,35 Mar 3,22 691255,70 7,32 8,53 8,28 14,29 Apr 3,49 704253,90 7,25 8,72 8,14 14,13 Mei 4,02 712695,00 7,32 8,78 8,13 21,32 Jun 3,90 720823,00 6,70 8,86 7,99 21,87 Jul 4,30 734000,00 4,53 9,07 7,84 18,23 Agst 4,58 737480,40 3,99 9,53 7,99 21,37 Sep 4,67 736626,20 4,53 9,58 8,00 20,75 Okt 4,75 723595,80 4,83 9,62 8,01 22,11 Nov 4,86 719953,70 6,23 9,85 8,08 21,18 128 Des 4,33 717858,30 8,36 9,98 8,18 20,69 2015 Jan 4,62 715130,70 6,96 8,88 8,16 19,88 Feb 4,80 717762,70 6,29 8,81 8,22 20,20 Mar 4,58 723575,70 6,38 8,82 8,30 22,31 Apr 4,34 737090,40 6,79 8,69 8,15 19,08 Mei 4,55 745874,40 7,15 8,70 7,90 17,94 Jun 4,38 754448,50 7,26 8,61 7,75 17,94 Jul 4,50 768341,30 7,26 8,90 7,85 17,90 Aug 4,51 772349,50 7,18 8,95 7,82 11,64 Sep 4,30 772001,70 6,83 9,00 7,92 11,64 Okt 4,37 767297,70 6,25 9,15 8,12 12,10 Nov 4,29 758237,60 4,89 9,25 8,22 11,98 Des 3,98 744821,40 3,35 9,07 8,05 12,21 2016 Jan 4,52 754213,20 4,14 8,98 7,75 12,32 Feb 4,58 754213,20 4,42 8,80 7,85 12,29 Data Interpolasi Lampiran 2 : Uji Normalitas Lampiran 3 : Uji Linearitas Ramsey RESET Test Equation: UNTITLED Specification: NPF GDP INF MM_MPLS RM_FM TBH C Omitted Variables: Squares of fitted values Value df Probability t-statistic 0.576412 43 0.5673 F-statistic 0.332251 1, 43 0.5673 129 Likelihood ratio 0.384853 1 0.5350 F-test summary: Sum of Sq. df Mean Squares Test SSR 0.029479 1 0.029479 Restricted SSR 3.844700 44 0.087380 Unrestricted SSR 3.815221 43 0.088726 Unrestricted SSR 3.815221 43 0.088726 LR test summary: Value df Restricted LogL -6.813742 44 Unrestricted LogL -6.621316 43 Unrestricted Test Equation: Dependent Variable: NPF Method: Least Squares Date: 082616 Time: 13:54 Sample: 2012M01 2016M02 Included observations: 50 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. GDP 2.71E-05 1.70E-05 1.589922 0.1192 INF -0.111847 0.084787 -1.319154 0.1941 MM_MPLS 0.320677 0.223250 1.436407 0.1581 RM_FM -0.507287 0.347690 -1.459021 0.1518 TBH 0.145261 0.095246 1.525112 0.1346 C -14.88903 10.39867 -1.431821 0.1594 FITTED2 -0.077887 0.135124 -0.576412 0.5673 R-squared 0.891162 Mean dependent var 3.544600 Adjusted R-squared 0.875976 S.D. dependent var 0.845809 S.E. of regression 0.297869 Akaike info criterion 0.544853 Sum squared resid 3.815221 Schwarz criterion 0.812536 Log likelihood -6.621316 Hannan-Quinn criter. 0.646788 F-statistic 58.68065 Durbin-Watson stat 0.901368 ProbF-statistic 0.000000 Lampiran 4 : Uji Stasioner Variabel NPF Null Hypothesis: NPF has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Bandwidth: 5 Newey-West automatic using Bartlett kernel Adj. t-Stat Prob. Phillips-Perron test statistic -0.744067 0.8256 Test critical values: 1 level -3.571310 5 level -2.922449 10 level -2.599224 130 MacKinnon 1996 one-sided p-values. Residual variance no correction 0.057888 HAC corrected variance Bartlett kernel 0.043961 Phillips-Perron Test Equation Dependent Variable: DNPF Method: Least Squares Date: 090616 Time: 20:10 Sample adjusted: 2012M02 2016M02 Included observations: 49 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. NPF-1 -0.037594 0.042156 -0.891775 0.3771 C 0.171236 0.152625 1.121937 0.2676 R-squared 0.016639 Mean dependent var 0.038776 Adjusted R-squared -0.004284 S.D. dependent var 0.245141 S.E. of regression 0.245666 Akaike info criterion 0.070271 Sum squared resid 2.836531 Schwarz criterion 0.147488 Log likelihood 0.278354 Hannan-Quinn criter. 0.099567 F-statistic 0.795263 Durbin-Watson stat 2.363736 ProbF-statistic 0.377056 Lampiran 5 : Uji Stasioner Variabel GDP Null Hypothesis: GDP has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Bandwidth: 3 Newey-West automatic using Bartlett kernel Adj. t-Stat Prob. Phillips-Perron test statistic -1.621615 0.4641 Test critical values: 1 level -3.571310 5 level -2.922449 10 level -2.599224 MacKinnon 1996 one-sided p-values. Residual variance no correction 50433332 HAC corrected variance Bartlett kernel 1.08E+08 Phillips-Perron Test Equation Dependent Variable: DGDP Method: Least Squares Date: 090616 Time: 20:13 131 Sample adjusted: 2012M02 2016M02 Included observations: 49 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. GDP-1 -0.041111 0.023940 -1.717279 0.0925 C 31624.79 16731.79 1.890102 0.0649 R-squared 0.059041 Mean dependent var 2946.755 Adjusted R-squared 0.039021 S.D. dependent var 7396.920 S.E. of regression 7251.168 Akaike info criterion 20.65567 Sum squared resid 2.47E+09 Schwarz criterion 20.73289 Log likelihood -504.0640 Hannan-Quinn criter. 20.68497 F-statistic 2.949048 Durbin-Watson stat 0.864232 ProbF-statistic 0.092512 Lampiran 6 : Uji Stasioner Variabel Inflasi Null Hypothesis: INF has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Bandwidth: 1 Newey-West automatic using Bartlett kernel Adj. t-Stat Prob. Phillips-Perron test statistic -2.123878 0.2365 Test critical values: 1 level -3.571310 5 level -2.922449 10 level -2.599224 MacKinnon 1996 one-sided p-values. Residual variance no correction 0.574060 HAC corrected variance Bartlett kernel 0.751385 Phillips-Perron Test Equation Dependent Variable: DINF Method: Least Squares Date: 090616 Time: 20:16 Sample adjusted: 2012M02 2016M02 Included observations: 49 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. INF-1 -0.132258 0.068918 -1.919048 0.0611 C 0.805725 0.426245 1.890287 0.0649 R-squared 0.072663 Mean dependent var 0.015714 Adjusted R-squared 0.052932 S.D. dependent var 0.794945 S.E. of regression 0.773620 Akaike info criterion 2.364488 Sum squared resid 28.12892 Schwarz criterion 2.441705 Log likelihood -55.92995 Hannan-Quinn criter. 2.393784 F-statistic 3.682744 Durbin-Watson stat 1.376124 132 ProbF-statistic 0.061062 Lampiran 7 : Uji Stasioner Variabel MMMPLS Null Hypothesis: MM_MPLS has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Bandwidth: 3 Newey-West automatic using Bartlett kernel Adj. t-Stat Prob. Phillips-Perron test statistic -1.542341 0.5040 Test critical values: 1 level -3.571310 5 level -2.922449 10 level -2.599224 MacKinnon 1996 one-sided p-values. Residual variance no correction 0.188970 HAC corrected variance Bartlett kernel 0.172060 Phillips-Perron Test Equation Dependent Variable: DMM_MPLS Method: Least Squares Date: 090616 Time: 20:18 Sample adjusted: 2012M02 2016M02 Included observations: 49 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. MM_MPLS-1 -0.103305 0.064183 -1.609531 0.1142 C 0.884053 0.540819 1.634655 0.1088 R-squared 0.052240 Mean dependent var 0.019591 Adjusted R-squared 0.032074 S.D. dependent var 0.451154 S.E. of regression 0.443860 Akaike info criterion 1.253344 Sum squared resid 9.259538 Schwarz criterion 1.330561 Log likelihood -28.70692 Hannan-Quinn criter. 1.282640 F-statistic 2.590589 Durbin-Watson stat 2.018868 ProbF-statistic 0.114197 Lampiran 8 : Uji Stasioner Variabel RMFM Null Hypothesis: RM_FM has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Bandwidth: 0 Newey-West automatic using Bartlett kernel Adj. t-Stat Prob. Phillips-Perron test statistic -3.843163 0.0047 133 Test critical values: 1 level -3.571310 5 level -2.922449 10 level -2.599224 MacKinnon 1996 one-sided p-values. Residual variance no correction 0.016324 HAC corrected variance Bartlett kernel 0.016324 Phillips-Perron Test Equation Dependent Variable: DRM_FM Method: Least Squares Date: 090616 Time: 20:20 Sample adjusted: 2012M02 2016M02 Included observations: 49 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. RM_FM-1 -0.094189 0.024508 -3.843163 0.0004 C 0.765096 0.187916 4.071486 0.0002 R-squared 0.239112 Mean dependent var 0.046466 Adjusted R-squared 0.222923 S.D. dependent var 0.147990 S.E. of regression 0.130456 Akaike info criterion -1.195600 Sum squared resid 0.799884 Schwarz criterion -1.118383 Log likelihood 31.29219 Hannan-Quinn criter. -1.166304 F-statistic 14.76990 Durbin-Watson stat 1.311033 ProbF-statistic 0.000364 Lampiran 9 : Uji Stasioner Variabel TBH Null Hypothesis: TBH has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Bandwidth: 3 Newey-West automatic using Bartlett kernel Adj. t-Stat Prob. Phillips-Perron test statistic -1.756579 0.3972 Test critical values: 1 level -3.571310 5 level -2.922449 10 level -2.599224 MacKinnon 1996 one-sided p-values. Residual variance no correction 2.662372 HAC corrected variance Bartlett kernel 2.487443 Phillips-Perron Test Equation 134 Dependent Variable: DTBH Method: Least Squares Date: 090616 Time: 20:29 Sample adjusted: 2012M02 2016M02 Included observations: 49 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. TBH-1 -0.150965 0.082581 -1.828085 0.0739 C 2.408455 1.379467 1.745932 0.0874 R-squared 0.066384 Mean dependent var -0.075510 Adjusted R-squared 0.046520 S.D. dependent var 1.706191 S.E. of regression 1.666033 Akaike info criterion 3.898727 Sum squared resid 130.4562 Schwarz criterion 3.975944 Log likelihood -93.51882 Hannan-Quinn criter. 3.928023 F-statistic 3.341896 Durbin-Watson stat 2.091832 ProbF-statistic 0.073888 Lampiran 10 : Uji Derajat Integrasi Variabel NPF Null Hypothesis: DNPF has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Bandwidth: 4 Newey-West automatic using Bartlett kernel Adj. t-Stat Prob. Phillips-Perron test statistic -8.385875 0.0000 Test critical values: 1 level -3.574446 5 level -2.923780 10 level -2.599925 MacKinnon 1996 one-sided p-values. Residual variance no correction 0.057255 HAC corrected variance Bartlett kernel 0.058204 Phillips-Perron Test Equation Dependent Variable: DNPF,2 Method: Least Squares Date: 090616 Time: 20:31 Sample adjusted: 2012M03 2016M02 Included observations: 48 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. DNPF-1 -1.208860 0.143929 -8.399028 0.0000 C 0.044673 0.035709 1.251034 0.2172 R-squared 0.605298 Mean dependent var -0.001667 135 Adjusted R-squared 0.596718 S.D. dependent var 0.384898 S.E. of regression 0.244427 Akaike info criterion 0.060976 Sum squared resid 2.748256 Schwarz criterion 0.138943 Log likelihood 0.536576 Hannan-Quinn criter. 0.090440 F-statistic 70.54367 Durbin-Watson stat 2.097584 ProbF-statistic 0.000000 Lampiran 11 : Uji Derajat Integrasi Variabel GDP Null Hypothesis: DGDP has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Bandwidth: 0 Newey-West automatic using Bartlett kernel Adj. t-Stat Prob. Phillips-Perron test statistic -3.575050 0.0100 Test critical values: 1 level -3.574446 5 level -2.923780 10 level -2.599925 MacKinnon 1996 one-sided p-values. Residual variance no correction 36252663 HAC corrected variance Bartlett kernel 36252663 Phillips-Perron Test Equation Dependent Variable: DGDP,2 Method: Least Squares Date: 090616 Time: 20:32 Sample adjusted: 2012M03 2016M02 Included observations: 48 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. DGDP-1 -0.429790 0.120219 -3.575050 0.0008 C 1109.257 958.5838 1.157183 0.2532 R-squared 0.217434 Mean dependent var -183.6146 Adjusted R-squared 0.200422 S.D. dependent var 6878.301 S.E. of regression 6150.518 Akaike info criterion 20.32723 Sum squared resid 1.74E+09 Schwarz criterion 20.40520 Log likelihood -485.8536 Hannan-Quinn criter. 20.35670 F-statistic 12.78098 Durbin-Watson stat 1.957736 ProbF-statistic 0.000836 136 Lampiran 12 : Uji Derajat Integrasi Variabel Inflasi Null Hypothesis: DINF has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Bandwidth: 7 Newey-West automatic using Bartlett kernel Adj. t-Stat Prob. Phillips-Perron test statistic -4.900655 0.0002 Test critical values: 1 level -3.574446 5 level -2.923780 10 level -2.599925 MacKinnon 1996 one-sided p-values. Residual variance no correction 0.584283 HAC corrected variance Bartlett kernel 0.389342 Phillips-Perron Test Equation Dependent Variable: DINF,2 Method: Least Squares Date: 090616 Time: 20:33 Sample adjusted: 2012M03 2016M02 Included observations: 48 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. DINF-1 -0.725755 0.141941 -5.113087 0.0000 C 0.015117 0.112712 0.134122 0.8939 R-squared 0.362383 Mean dependent var 0.007708 Adjusted R-squared 0.348522 S.D. dependent var 0.967394 S.E. of regression 0.780825 Akaike info criterion 2.383841 Sum squared resid 28.04560 Schwarz criterion 2.461808 Log likelihood -55.21219 Hannan-Quinn criter. 2.413305 F-statistic 26.14366 Durbin-Watson stat 1.847816 ProbF-statistic 0.000006 Lampiran 13 : Uji Derajat Integrasi Variabel MMMPLS Null Hypothesis: DMM_MPLS has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Bandwidth: 3 Newey-West automatic using Bartlett kernel Adj. t-Stat Prob. Phillips-Perron test statistic -9.111775 0.0000 Test critical values: 1 level -3.574446 5 level -2.923780 10 level -2.599925 MacKinnon 1996 one-sided p-values. 137 Residual variance no correction 0.158030 HAC corrected variance Bartlett kernel 0.145757 Phillips-Perron Test Equation Dependent Variable: DMM_MPLS,2 Method: Least Squares Date: 090616 Time: 20:34 Sample adjusted: 2012M03 2016M02 Included observations: 48 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. DMM_MPLS-1 -1.170178 0.130188 -8.988344 0.0000 C 0.052075 0.058694 0.887229 0.3796 R-squared 0.637196 Mean dependent var 0.024284 Adjusted R-squared 0.629309 S.D. dependent var 0.666970 S.E. of regression 0.406080 Akaike info criterion 1.076243 Sum squared resid 7.585459 Schwarz criterion 1.154209 Log likelihood -23.82982 Hannan-Quinn criter. 1.105706 F-statistic 80.79032 Durbin-Watson stat 2.186712 ProbF-statistic 0.000000 Lampiran 14 : Uji Derajat Integrasi Variabel RMFM Null Hypothesis: DRM_FM has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Bandwidth: 1 Newey-West automatic using Bartlett kernel Adj. t-Stat Prob. Phillips-Perron test statistic -4.327805 0.0012 Test critical values: 1 level -3.574446 5 level -2.923780 10 level -2.599925 MacKinnon 1996 one-sided p-values. Residual variance no correction 0.017173 HAC corrected variance Bartlett kernel 0.018463 Phillips-Perron Test Equation Dependent Variable: DRM_FM,2 Method: Least Squares Date: 090616 Time: 20:36 Sample adjusted: 2012M03 2016M02 Included observations: 48 after adjustments 138 Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. DRM_FM-1 -0.556530 0.130743 -4.256684 0.0001 C 0.023382 0.020211 1.156907 0.2533 R-squared 0.282588 Mean dependent var -0.001857 Adjusted R-squared 0.266992 S.D. dependent var 0.156355 S.E. of regression 0.133864 Akaike info criterion -1.143205 Sum squared resid 0.824305 Schwarz criterion -1.065238 Log likelihood 29.43692 Hannan-Quinn criter. -1.113741 F-statistic 18.11936 Durbin-Watson stat 1.795779 ProbF-statistic 0.000101 Lampiran 15 : Uji Derajat Integrasi Variabel TBH Null Hypothesis: DTBH has a unit root Exogenous: Constant Bandwidth: 1 Newey-West automatic using Bartlett kernel Adj. t-Stat Prob. Phillips-Perron test statistic -7.797637 0.0000 Test critical values: 1 level -3.574446 5 level -2.923780 10 level -2.599925 MacKinnon 1996 one-sided p-values. Residual variance no correction 2.856198 HAC corrected variance Bartlett kernel 2.774702 Phillips-Perron Test Equation Dependent Variable: DTBH,2 Method: Least Squares Date: 090616 Time: 20:41 Sample adjusted: 2012M03 2016M02 Included observations: 48 after adjustments Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. DTBH-1 -1.136751 0.146046 -7.783492 0.0000 C -0.088997 0.249431 -0.356801 0.7229 R-squared 0.568410 Mean dependent var -0.002083 Adjusted R-squared 0.559028 S.D. dependent var 2.599743 S.E. of regression 1.726378 Akaike info criterion 3.970702 Sum squared resid 137.0975 Schwarz criterion 4.048669 Log likelihood -93.29685 Hannan-Quinn criter. 4.000166 F-statistic 60.58275 Durbin-Watson stat 2.056992 ProbF-statistic 0.000000 139 Lampiran 16 : Uji Kointegrasi Johansen Test Date: 082616 Time: 17:03 Sample adjusted: 2012M04 2016M02 Included observations: 47 after adjustments Trend assumption: Linear deterministic trend Series: NPF GDP INF MM_MPLS RM_FM TBH Lags interval in first differences: 1 to 2 Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test Trace Hypothesized Trace 0.05 No. of CEs Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob. None 0.675371 132.4507 95.75366 0.0000 At most 1 0.512803 79.57232 69.81889 0.0068 At most 2 0.485817 45.77522 47.85613 0.0774 At most 3 0.194346 14.51195 29.79707 0.8107 At most 4 0.077734 4.355215 15.49471 0.8729 At most 5 0.011674 0.551894 3.841466 0.4575 Trace test indicates 2 cointegrating eqns at the 0.05 level denotes rejection of the hypothesis at the 0.05 level MacKinnon-Haug-Michelis 1999 p-values Unrestricted Cointegration Rank Test Maximum Eigenvalue Hypothesized Max-Eigen 0.05 No. of CEs Eigenvalue Statistic Critical Value Prob. None 0.675371 52.87833 40.07757 0.0011 At most 1 0.512803 33.79710 33.87687 0.0511 At most 2 0.485817 31.26328 27.58434 0.0161 At most 3 0.194346 10.15673 21.13162 0.7298 At most 4 0.077734 3.803321 14.26460 0.8795 At most 5 0.011674 0.551894 3.841466 0.4575 Lampiran 17 : Uji Asumsi Klasik 1. Uji Multikolinearitas GDP INF MM_MPLS RM_FM TBH GDP 1.000000 0.320427 0.734487 0.684515 0.043648 INF 0.320427 1.000000 0.427713 0.579865 0.042818 MM_MPLS 0.734487 0.427713 1.000000 0.831544 0.223500 RM_FM 0.684515 0.579865 0.831544 1.000000 0.115874 TBH 0.043648 0.042818 0.223500 0.115874 1.000000

2. Uji Autokorelasi