QXBID SIMPULAN DAN IMPLIKASI KEBIJAKAN

LPXBTA = LagPXBTA; LPXBTU = LagPXBTU; LQMBAD = LagQMBAD; LQMBUD = LagQMBUD; LPUBD = LagPUBD ; LQXOIJ = LagQXOIJ; LQXOIA = LagQXOIA; LQXOIU = LagQXOIU; LQXOTJ = LagQXOTJ; LQXOTA = LagQXOTA; LQXOTU = LagQXOTU; LPXOIJ = LagPXOIJ; LPXOIA = LagPXOIA; LPXOIU = LagPXOIU; LPXOTJ = LagPXOTJ; LPXOTA = LagPXOTA; LPXOTU = LagPXOTU; LQMOJD = LagQMOJD; LQMOAD = LagQMOAD; LQMOUD = LagQMOUD; LPUOD = LagPUOD ; LPrUBI = LAGPrUBI; SPrUBI = PrUBI-LPrUBI; LPrUOI = LAGPrUOI; SPrUOI = PrUOI-LPrUOI; LQPKAN = LAGQPAKN; GDPKPU = GDPUPOPU; LEXCI = LAGEXCI; SEXCI = EXCI-LEXCI; LEXCT = LAGEXCT; SEXCT = EXCT-LEXCT; LINTRE = LAGINTRE; SINTRE = INTRE-LINTRE; LBBM = LAGBBM; SPUSDOM = PUSDOM-LPUSDOM; SPUBD = PUBD-LPUBD; SPUOD = PUOD-LPUOD; PPXSTU = PXSTU-LPXSTULPXSTU; SPXSIU = PXSIU-LPXSIU; SPXOIJ = PXOIJ-LPXOIJ; SPXOIU = PXOIU-LPXOIU; SPXOTJ = PXOTJ-LPXOTJ; SPXOTA = PXOTA-LPXOTA; SPXOTU = PXOTU-LPXOTU; RPXSTIU = PXSTUPXSIU; SPXBIJ = PXBIJ-LPXBIJ; SPXBIA = PXBIA-LPXBIA; SPXBTA = PXBTA-LPXBTA; SPXSTJ = PXSTJ-LPXSTJ; RQPKNBNR= QPAKNQBENR; RPUSPKN = PUSDOMPPAKN; RPUSBD = PUSDPUBD; RPUBOD = PUBDPUOD; LPBENR = LAGPBENR; PPBENR = PBENR-LAGPBENRPBENR; LQXOID = LAGQXOID; LQPAKN = LAGQPAKN; LTFPIN = LAGTFPIN; PAREA = AREA-LAREALAREA; SQBENR = QBENR-LQBENR; SBBM = BBM-LBBM; SPBENR = PBENR-LPBENR; PPBENR = PBENR-LPBENRLPBENR; RPUBSDOM= PUBDOMPUSDOM; UNTUK PERSAMAAN IDENTITAS QXSID = QXSIJ + QXSIA + QXSIU + QXSIL; TXUSD = QXSID + QXSTJ + QXSTA + QXSTU + QXSTL + QXSLL; TMUSD = QMSJD + QMSAD + QMSUD + QMSLL; QXBID = QXBIJ + QXBIA + QXBIU + QXBIL; TXUBD = QXBID + QXBTJ + QXBTA + QXBTU + QXBTL + QXBLL; TMUBD = QMBAD + QMBUD + QMBJD + QMBLL; QXOID = QXOIJ + QXOIA + QXOIU + QXOIL; TXUOD = QXOID + QXOTJ + QXOTA + QXOTU + QXOTL + QXOLL; TMUOD = QMOAD + QMOUD + QMOJD + QMOLL; LTXUOD = LAGTXUOD; LTMUOD = LAGTMUOD; STXUOD = TXUOD-LTXUOD; PTXUOD = TXUOD-LTXUODLTXUOD; STMUOD = TMUOD-LTMUOD; PTMUOD = TMUOD-LTMUODLTMUOD; RTXMUOD= TXUODTMUOD; RTMXUOD= TMUODTXUOD; STXMUOD= TXUOD-TMUOD; STMXUOD= TMUOD-TXUOD; RPUOBD = PUODPUBD; LQXSID = LAGQXSID; RPUBSD = PUBDPUSD; LTXUBD = LAGTXUBD; LTMUBD = LAGTMUBD; LTFPIN =LAGTFPIN; RUN ; PROC SYSLIN 2 SLS DATA =ESTIMASI OUTEST =HASIL_1 SIMPLE ; ENDOGENOUS ENDOGENOUS QPAKN QBENR TFPIN QTAMB QTNKP PrUSI PUSDOM DUSDOM QXSIJ QXSIA QXSIU QXSTJ QXSTA QXSTU PXSIJ PXSIA PXSIU PXSTJ PXSTA PXSTU QMSJD QMSAD QMSUD QDUSB PrUBI PUBDOM DUBDOM QXBIJ QXBIA QXBIU QXBID QXBTJ QXBTA QXBTU PXBIJ PXBIA PXBIU PXBTJ PXBTA PXBTU QMBJD QMBAD QMBUD TXUBD TMUBD PUBD QDUBO PrUOI QXOIJ QXOIA QXOIU QXOID QXOTJ QXOTA QXOTU PXOIJ PXOIA PXOIU PXOTJ PXOTA PXOTU QMOJD QMOAD QMOUD TXUOD TMUOD PUOD ; INSTRUMENTS IRIG EDUC RPUSPKN PBENR PPAKN PPBENR RQPKNBNR INTRE BBM POPJ POPA POPU GDPJ GDPA GDPU D_LAW D_HACCP D_MRL EXCI EXCT PRODTK VANAME DPENY DUSDOM LDUSDOM TRFOU LTRFOA LTRFOJ GDPKPU LBBM RPUSBD RPXSTIU SPXSIU RPUBOD SPUBDOM SPXOIU SPXOTA SPXOTU GDPKPU ; PERSAMAAN STRUKTURAL ON FARM Model QPAKN = PPAKN SPUSDOM TREND DW ; Model QBENR = PBENR PPAKN PUSDOM TREND LQBENR DW ; Model TFPIN = EDUC IRIG DW ; Model QTAMB = PUSDOM SBBM QPAKN SQBENR INTRE DPENY TFPIN DW ; Model QTNKP = PUSDOM ATPU LBBM DW ; UDANG SEGAR Model PUSDOM = LDUSDOM QXSIA TREND LPUSDOM DW ; Model QXSIJ = PXSIJ SPXSTJ D_LAW PrUSI TREND LQXSIJ DW ; Model QXSIA = LPXSIA PXSTA D_HACCP LPrUSI TREND DW ; Model QXSIU = SPXSIU D_MRL TREND PrUSI DW ; Model QXSTJ = LPXSTJ PXBTJ D_LAW TREND DW ; Model QXSTA = PXSTA SPXBTA D_HACCP TREND DW ; Model QXSTU = RPXSTIU D_MRL TREND LQXSTU DW ; Model PXSIJ = RPUSBD EXCI DUSDOM TREND LPXSIJ DW ; Model PXSIA = PUSD EXCI DUSDOM TREND DW ; Model PXSIU = LPUSD LEXCI LDUSDOM LPXSIU DW ; Model PXSTJ = RPUSBD SEXCT TREND DW ; Model PXSTA = RPUSBD SEXCT TREND DW ; Model PXSTU = RPUSBD SEXCT TREND DW ; Model QMSJD = RPUBSD GDPJ TREND LQMSJD DW ; Model QMSAD = LPUSD PUBD TREND DW ; Model QMSUD = RPUSBD LQMSUD DW ; UDANG BEKU Model QDUSB = SPUSDOM PUBDOM TREND DW ; Model PUBDOM = PUBD DUBDOM TREND LPUBDOM DW ; Model QXBIJ = SPXBIJ SPXOIJ SPrUBI D_Law TREND LQXBIJ DW ; Model QXBIA = SPXBIA PXBTA PrUBI D_HACCP DW ; Model QXBIU = SPUBD PUOD SPrUBI D_MRL LQXBIU DW ; Model QXBTJ = SPUBD LPUOD D_LAW TREND LQXBTJ DW ; Model QXBTA = PXBTA TREND D_HACCP LQXBTA DW ; Model QXBTU = PXBTU PXBTJ SEXCT D_MRL TREND DW ; Model PXBIJ = PUBD SEXCI TREND DW ; Model PXBIA = PUBD EXCI TREND LPXBIA DW ; Model PXBIU = PUBD TREND LPXBIU DW ; Model PXBTJ = PUBD EXCT TREND DW ; Model PXBTA = PUBD EXCT TREND LPXBTA DW ; Model PXBTU = PUBD EXCT TREND LPXBTU DW ; Model QMBJD = LPUBD LPUOD GDPJ POPJ TREND DW ; Model QMBAD = RPUBOD POPA TREND LQMBAD DW ; Model QMBUD = LPUBD PUOD POPU TREND DW ; Model PUBD = LTXUBD TMUBD LPUBD DW ; UDANG OLAHAN Model PrUOI = LPUBDOM SPUOD LINTRE LQXOID DW ; Model QDUBO = SPUBDOM PrUOI PUOD DW ; Model QXOIJ = PXOIJ PXOTJ PrUOI D_Law DW ; Model QXOIA = PXOIA LPrUOI D_HACCP LQXOIA DW ; Model QXOIU = LPXOIU SPXOTU PrUOI D_MRL LQXOIU DW ; Model QXOTJ = SPXOTJ PXOIJ D_Law DW ; Model QXOTA = SPXOTA D_HACCP DW ; Model QXOTU = SPXOTU SPXOIU D_MRL TREND LQXOTU DW ; Model PXOIJ = PUOD PUBD TREND LPXOIJ DW ; Model PXOIA = SPUOD PUBD SEXCI TREND LPXOIA DW ; Model PXOIU = LPUOD PUBD SEXCI TREND LPXOIU DW ; Model PXOTJ = RPUOBD EXCT TREND LPXOTJ DW ; Model PXOTA = RPUOBD EXCT TREND DW ; Model PXOTU = RPUOBD EXCT TREND DW ; Model QMOJD = PUOD GDPJ POPJ LTRFOJ TREND LQMOJD DW ; Model QMOAD = SPUOD GDPA POPA LTRFOA LQMOAD DW ; Model QMOUD = SPUOD GDPKPU TRFOU DW ; Model PUOD = STXUOD TMUOD TREND LPUOD DW ; Model PrUBI = RPUBSDOM INTRE LPRUBI dw; PERSAMAAN IDENTITAS IDENTITY PrUSI = QTAMB+QTNKP; IDENTITY PrUBI = 0.6 PrUSI+ 0.6 QMUSID- 0.6 QDUSL- 0.6 QXSID; IDENTITY DUSDOM = QDUSL+QDUSB; IDENTITY DUBDOM = QDUBO+QDUBL; IDENTITY QXBID = QXBIJ+QXBIA+QXBIU+QXBIL; IDENTITY TXUBD = QXBID+QXBTJ+QXBTA+QXBTU+QXBTL+QXBLL; IDENTITY TMUBD = QMBAD+QMBUD+QMBJD+QMBLL; IDENTITY QXOID = QXOIJ+QXOIA+QXOIU+QXOIL; IDENTITY TXUOD = QXOID+QXOTJ+QXOTA+QXOTU+QXOTL+QXOLL; IDENTITY TMUOD = QMOAD+QMOUD+QMOJD+QMOLL; PROC PRINT DATA =ESTIMASI; RUN ; Lampiran 4. Hasil Estimasi Parameter Model Daya Saing Udang Indonesia Menggunakan Metode 2SLS, Prosedur Syslin, dan Program SASETS 9.1 untuk Persamaan Permintaan Pakan The SAS System The SYSLIN Procedure Two-Stage Least Squares Estimation Model QPAKN Dependent Variable QPAKN Label QPAKN Analysis of Variance Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Pr F Model 3 126362.0 42120.66 37.67 .0001 Error 15 16772.44 1118.163 Corrected Total 18 143134.4 Root MSE 33.43894 R-Square 0.88282 Dependent Mean 195.06870 Adj R-Sq 0.85938 Coeff Var 17.14213 Parameter Estimates Parameter Standard Variable Variable DF Estimate Error t Value Pr |t| Label Intercept 1 454.8623 82.85901 5.49 .0001 Intercept PPAKN 1 -75.7553 15.15767 -5.00 0.0002 PPAKN SPUSDOM 1 2.782065 1.007731 2.76 0.0146 TREND 1 15.76608 1.510158 10.44 .0001 TREND Durbin-Watson 0.739925 Number of Observations 19 First-Order Autocorrelation 0.586833 Lampiran 5. Program Validasi Model Daya Saing Udang Indonesia Menggunakan Metode Newton, Prosedur SIMNLIN, dan Program SASETS 9.1 OPTION NODATE NONUMBER; DATA VALIDASI; SET SASUSER.TERBUKA_3; CREATING VARIABEL PrUSI = QTAMB+ QTNKP; LPrUSI = LAGPrUSI; QXSID = QXSIJ + QXSIA + QXSIU + QXSIL; QXBID = QXBIJ + QXBIA + QXBIU + QXBIL; QXOID = QXOIJ + QXOIA + QXOIU + QXOIL; QDUSB =

1.05 QXBID

10 6 + 1.05 QXOID 10 3 ; QDUSL = PrUSI-QXSID-QDUSB; DUSDOM = QDUSL+QDUSB; PrUBI = 0.6 PrUSI + QMUSID - QDUSL - QXSID; QDUBL = 0.05 QXBID; QDUBO = PrUBI-QXBID-QDUBL; DUBDOM = QDUBO + QDUBL; PrUOI = 0.5 PrUBI + QMUBID - QDUBL- QXBID; LQTNKP = LAGQTNKP; LAREA = LAGAREA; SAREA = AREA-LAREA; LTRFOJ = LAGTRFOJ; LTRFOA = LAGTRFOA; LQTAMB = LagQTAMB; LQBENR = LagQBENR; LPBENR = LAGPBENR; LDUSDOM = LAGDUSDOM; LPUSDOM = LagPUSDOM; LPUBDOM = LagPUBDOM; SPUBDOM = PUBDOM-LPUBDOM; LDUSDOM = LagDUSDOM; LQXSIJ = LagQXSIJ; LQXSIU = LagQXSIU; LQXSTA = LagQXSTA; LQXSTU = LagQXSTU; LPXSIJ = LagPXSIJ; LPXSIA = LagPXSIA; LPXSIU = LagPXSIU; LPXSTJ = LagPXSTJ; LPXSTA = LagPXSTA; LPXSTU = LagPXSTU; LQMSJD = LagQMSJD; LQMSAD = LagQMSAD; LQMSUD = LagQMSUD; LPUSD = LagPUSD ; LQXBIJ = LagQXBIJ; LQXBIA = LagQXBIA; LQXBIU = LagQXBIU; LQXBTJ = LagQXBTJ; LQXBTA = LagQXBTA; LQXBTU = LagQXBTU; LPXBIJ = LagPXBIJ; LPXBIA = LagPXBIA; LPXBIU = LagPXBIU; LPXBTJ = LagPXBTJ; LPXBTA = LagPXBTA; LPXBTU = LagPXBTU; LQMBAD = LagQMBAD; LQMBUD = LagQMBUD; LPUBD = LagPUBD ; LQXOIJ = LagQXOIJ; LQXOIA = LagQXOIA; LQXOIU = LagQXOIU; LQXOTJ = LagQXOTJ; LQXOTA = LagQXOTA; LQXOTU = LagQXOTU; LPXOIJ = LagPXOIJ; LPXOIA = LagPXOIA; LPXOIU = LagPXOIU; LPXOTJ = LagPXOTJ; LPXOTA = LagPXOTA; LPXOTU = LagPXOTU; LQMOJD = LagQMOJD; LQMOAD = LagQMOAD; LQMOUD = LagQMOUD; LPUOD = LagPUOD ; LPrUBI = LAGPrUBI; SPrUBI = PrUBI-LPrUBI; LPrUOI = LAGPrUOI; SPrUOI = PrUOI-LPrUOI; LQPKAN = LAGQPAKN; GDPKPU = GDPUPOPU; LEXCI = LAGEXCI; SEXCI = EXCI-LEXCI; LEXCT = LAGEXCT; SEXCT = EXCT-LEXCT; LINTRE = LAGINTRE; SINTRE = INTRE-LINTRE; LBBM = LAGBBM; SPUSDOM = PUSDOM-LPUSDOM; SPUBD = PUBD-LPUBD; SPUOD = PUOD-LPUOD; PPXSTU = PXSTU-LPXSTULPXSTU; SPXSIU = PXSIU-LPXSIU; SPXOIJ = PXOIJ-LPXOIJ; SPXOIU = PXOIU-LPXOIU; SPXOTJ = PXOTJ-LPXOTJ; SPXOTA = PXOTA-LPXOTA; SPXOTU = PXOTU-LPXOTU; RPXSTIU = PXSTUPXSIU; SPXBIJ = PXBIJ-LPXBIJ; SPXBIA = PXBIA-LPXBIA; SPXBTA = PXBTA-LPXBTA; SPXSTJ = PXSTJ-LPXSTJ; RQPKNBNR= QPAKNQBENR; RPUSPKN = PUSDOMPPAKN; RPUSBD = PUSDPUBD; RPUBOD = PUBDPUOD; PPBENR = PBENR-LAGPBENRPBENR; LTRFOJ = LAGTRFOJ;