Metode Siklis Perbaikan Supply Chain di Sektor Logistik PT. Central Proteinaprima

� = 12 × 903,57 − 78 × 138,34 12 × 650 − 78 2 = −0,030206 ln � = ∑ ��� − � ∑ � � = 11,33259 � = 83.499,2 � ′ = �� �� � ′ = 83.499,2 � −0,0302065 � � ′ = 83.499,2 � −0,0302065 1 = 86.059,85 ≈ 86.060 ���� = ∑ | �� � | � �=1 � = 2,69 12 = 22,42

2. Metode Siklis

Jumlah periode adalah: � = 12 3 = 4 SIKLIS t Y Sin2πtn Cos2πtn Sin 2πtnCos 2πtn Sin2 2πtn Cos2 2πtn YSin2πtn YCos2πtn 1 80786 1,000 0,000 0,000 1,000 0,000 80786,25 2 58149 0,000 -1,000 0,000 0,000 1,000 0,00 -58149 3 124014 -1,000 0,000 0,000 1,000 0,000 -124014,00 4 76981 0,000 1,000 0,000 0,000 1,000 0,00 76980,5 5 96601 1,000 0,000 0,000 1,000 0,000 96600,75 6 137403 0,000 -1,000 0,000 0,000 1,000 0,00 -137402,5 7 113036 -1,000 0,000 0,000 1,000 0,000 -113035,50 8 142224 0,000 1,000 0,000 0,000 1,000 0,00 142224 9 111110 1,000 0,000 0,000 1,000 0,000 111110,00 10 115477 0,000 -1,000 0,000 0,000 1,000 0,00 -115476,75 11 145007 -1,000 0,000 0,000 1,000 0,000 -145006,75 12 68058 0,000 1,000 0,000 0,000 1,000 0,00 68058,25 78 1.268.844 6 6 -93559,25 -23765,5 Universitas Sumatera Utara ∑ y = t a + b ∑ sin� 2 πt n � + c ∑ cos� 2 πt n � 1.268.844 = 12 a + b 0 + c 0 a = 1.268 .844 12 a = 105.737,02 ∑ y sin� 2 πt n � =a ∑ sin� 2 πt n � + b ∑ sin 2 � 2 πt n �+ c ∑ sin� 2 πt n �cos� 2 πt n � -48.237,499 = 95.540,833 0 + b 4 + c 0 b = −93.559,25 4 b = -23.389,81 ∑ y cos � 2 πt n � = a ∑ cos � 2 πt n �+ c ∑ cos 2 � 2 πt n �+ b ∑ sin� 2 πt n �cos� 2 πt n � 26.455 = 95.540,833 0 + c 4 + -8.222,778 0 c = −23.765,5 4 c = -5.941,375 y’= a + b sin � 2 πt n �+ c� 2 πt n � y’= 105.737,02 – 23.389,81 sin � 2 πt n � - 5.941,375 cos � 2 πt n � y’= 105.737,02 – 23.389,81 sin 0,866 - 5.941,375 co �−0,500 = 82.347,208 ���� = ∑ | �� � | � �=1 � = 2,92 12 = 24,34 Metode Terpilih: Eksponensial Universitas Sumatera Utara Verifikasi Peramalan y yt e=y-yt |MR| UCL LCL 80.786 86.060 -5.274 - 93.883,39 -93.883,39 58.149 88.699 -30.550 25.276,42 93.883,39 -93.883,39 124.014 91.419 32.595 63.144,89 93.883,39 -93.883,39 76.981 94.223 -17.242 49.837,02 93.883,39 -93.883,39 96.601 97.112 -511 16.730,75 93.883,39 -93.883,39 137.403 100.090 37.312 37.823,64 93.883,39 -93.883,39 113.036 103.160 9.876 27.436,44 93.883,39 -93.883,39 142.224 106.323 35.901 26.024,93 93.883,39 -93.883,39 111.110 109.584 1.526 34.374,58 93.883,39 -93.883,39 115.477 112.944 2.532 1.006,18 93.883,39 -93.883,39 145.007 116.408 28.599 26.066,37 93.883,39 -93.883,39 68.058 119.978 -51.920 80.518,35 93.883,39 -93.883,39 388.239,58 -150.000 -100.000 -50.000 50.000 100.000 150.000 Jan u ar i F e b ru a ri M a re t A p ri l M e i Ju n i Ju li A g u st u s S e p te m b e r O k to b e r N o v e m b e r D e se m b e r P T . JW L Peramalan Irawan 684-S tahun 2016 Irawan 684-S LCL UCL Universitas Sumatera Utara PERAMALAN PRODUK IRAWAN 9001 – PT. SWMS Irawan 9001 Bulan Demand Januari 5.817 Februari 4.753 Maret 9.034 April 7.028 Mei 8.577 Juni 4.028 Juli 5.656 Agustus 7.888 September 7.520 Oktober 6.012 November 5.014 Desember 4.760 Total 76085 Metode Peramalan Terpilih: • Metode Kuadratis •