Metode Kuadratis Perbaikan Supply Chain di Sektor Logistik PT. Central Proteinaprima

� = � ∑ �. ��� − ∑ � ∑ ��� � ∑ � 2 − ∑ � 2 � = 12 × 861,253 − 78 × 132,637 12 × 650 − 78 2 = −0,006187 ln � = ∑ ��� − � ∑ � � = 11,0932 � = 65.726,669 � ′ = �� �� � ′ = 65.726,669 � −0,006187� � ′ = 65.726,669 � −0,0061871 = 65.321,27 ≈ 65.321 ���� = ∑ | �� � | � �=1 � = 2,67 12 = 22,28

2. Metode Kuadratis

KUADRATIS t y t² t³ t ⁴ ty t²y t yt 1 55.775 1 1 1 55.775 55.775 13 50.951 2 46.583 4 8 16 93.167 186.333 14 59.898 3 51.009 9 27 81 153.027 459.081 15 66.944 4 108.655 16 64 256 434.620 1.738.480 16 72.091 5 74.095 25 125 625 370.474 1.852.369 17 75.338 6 73.288 36 216 1.296 439.725 2.638.350 18 76.686 7 85.789 49 343 2.401 600.525 4.203.673 19 76.134 8 56.958 64 512 4.096 455.664 3.645.312 20 73.683 9 52.868 81 729 6.561 475.812 4.282.308 21 69.331 10 77.089 100 1.000 10.000 770.893 7.708.925 22 63.081 11 55.013 121 1.331 14.641 605.138 6.656.513 23 54.930 12 46.827 144 1.728 20.736 561.918 6.743.016 24 44.880 78 783.948 650 6.084 60.710 5.016.736 40.170.135 222 783.948 � = �� � 2 � 2 − � � � 4 � = 650 2 − 12 × 60.710 = −306.020 Universitas Sumatera Utara � = � � � � − � � �� � = 78 × 783.948 − 12 × 5.016.736 = 947.112 � = � � 2 � � − � � � 2 � � = 650 × 783.948 − 12 × 40.170.135 = 27.524.586 � = � � � � 2 − � � � 3 � = 78 × 650 − 12 × 6.084 = −22.308 � = �� �� 2 − � � � 2 � = 78 2 − 12 × 650 = −1.716 � = �� −�� �� −� 2 = 11.795,578 � = �−�� � = -949,808 � = ∑ �−� ∑ �−� ∑ � 2 � = 40.105,693 � ′ = � + �� + �� 2 � ′ = 40.105,693 + 11.795,578 � + −949,808� 2 � ′ = 40.105,693 + 11.795,5781 + −949,8081 2 = 50.951,46 ≈ 50.951 ���� = ∑ | �� � | � �=1 � = 2,03 12 = 16,89 Metode Terpilih: Kuadratis Universitas Sumatera Utara Verifikasi Peramalan y yt e=y-yt |MR| UCL LCL 55.775 50.951 4.824 - 48.164,67 -48.164,67 46.583 59.898 -13.314 18.137,90 48.164,67 -48.164,67 51.009 66.944 -15.935 2.620,79 48.164,67 -48.164,67 108.655 72.091 36.564 52.499,08 48.164,67 -48.164,67 74.095 75.338 -1.244 37.807,55 48.164,67 -48.164,67 73.288 76.686 -3.399 2.154,94 48.164,67 -48.164,67 85.789 76.134 9.655 13.053,68 48.164,67 -48.164,67 56.958 73.683 -16.725 26.379,70 48.164,67 -48.164,67 52.868 69.331 -16.463 261,16 48.164,67 -48.164,67 77.089 63.081 14.009 30.472,03 48.164,67 -48.164,67 55.013 54.930 82 13.926,35 48.164,67 -48.164,67 46.827 44.880 1.946 1.864,01 48.164,67 -48.164,67 199.177,20 -60.000 -40.000 -20.000 20.000 40.000 60.000 P T . S W M S Permintaan 683 tahun 2016 Irawan 683 LCL UCL Universitas Sumatera Utara PERAMALAN PRODUK IRAWAN 683-SP – PT. SWMS Irawan 683-SP Bulan Demand Januari 93.060 Februari 76.257 Maret 48.974 April 117.381 Mei 88.140 Juni 110.940 Juli 109.946 Agustus 66.432 September 101.747 Oktober 61.182 November 49.231 Desember 57.885 Total 981.175 Metode Peramalan Terpilih: • Metode Eksponensial •