Metode Linier Metode Kuadratis

PERAMALAN PRODUK IRAWAN 683 – PT. BWP Irawan 683 Bulan Demand Januari 48.500 Februari 56.390 Maret 43.722 April 66.595 Mei 57.629 Juni 53.556 Juli 65.082 Agustus 49.191 September 66.085 Oktober 26.583 November 30.807 Desember 49.581 Total 613.721 Metode Peramalan Terpilih: • Metode Linier • Metode Kuadratis

1. Metode Linier

LINIER t y ty t² t yt 1 48.500 48.500 1 13 57.964 2 56.390 112.781 4 14 56.724 3 43.722 131.166 9 15 55.484 4 66.595 266.380 16 16 54.244 5 57.629 288.146 25 17 53.004 6 53.556 321.338 36 18 51.763 7 65.082 455.571 49 19 50.523 8 49.191 393.528 64 20 49.283 9 66.085 594.765 81 21 48.043 10 26.583 265.825 100 22 46.803 11 30.807 338.877 121 23 45.563 12 49.581 594.972 144 24 44.323 78 613.721 3.811.848 650 222 613.721 Universitas Sumatera Utara � = � ∑ �� − ∑ � ∑ � � ∑ � 2 − ∑ � 2 � = 12 × 3.811.848 − 78 × 613.712 12 × 650 − 78 2 = −1.240,119 � = ∑ � − � ∑ � � � = 613.721— 1.240,119 × 78 12 12 = 59.204,174 �′ = � + �� � ′ = 59.204,174 + −1.240,119� � ′ = 59.204,174 + −1.240,1191 = 57.964,05 ≈ 57.964 ���� = ∑ | �� � | � �=1 � = 2,61 12 = 21,78

2. Metode Kuadratis

KUADRATIS t y t² t³ t ⁴ ty t²y t yt 1 48.500 1 1 1 48.500 48.500 13 49.443 2 56.390 4 8 16 112.781 225.561 14 52.851 3 43.722 9 27 81 131.166 393.498 15 55.329 4 66.595 16 64 256 266.380 1.065.520 16 56.877 5 57.629 25 125 625 288.146 1.440.731 17 57.496 6 53.556 36 216 1.296 321.338 1.928.025 18 57.186 7 65.082 49 343 2.401 455.571 3.188.994 19 55.946 8 49.191 64 512 4.096 393.528 3.148.224 20 53.776 9 66.085 81 729 6.561 594.765 5.352.885 21 50.677 10 26.583 100 1.000 10.000 265.825 2.658.250 22 46.648 11 30.807 121 1.331 14.641 338.877 3.727.647 23 41.690 12 49.581 144 1.728 20.736 594.972 7.139.664 24 35.802 78 613.721 650 6.084 60.710 3.811.848 30.317.499 222 613.721 � = �� � 2 � 2 − � � � 4 � = 650 2 − 12 × 60.710 = −306.020 � = � � � � − � � �� � = 78 × 613.721 − 12 × 3.811.848 = 2.128.046 � = � � 2 � � − � � � 2 � � = 650 × 613.7217 − 12 × 30.317.499 = 35.108.503 Universitas Sumatera Utara � = � � � � 2 − � � � 3 � = 78 × 650 − 12 × 6.084 = −22.308 � = �� �� 2 − � � � 2 � = 78 2 − 12 × 650 = −1.716 � = �� −�� �� −� 2 = 4.802,015 � = �−�� � = -464,779 � = ∑ �−� ∑ �−� ∑ � 2 � = 45.105,857 � ′ = � + �� + �� 2 � ′ = 45.105,857 + 4.802,015 � + −464,779� 2 � ′ = 45.105,857 + 4.802,015 1 + −464,7791 2 = 49.443,09 ≈ 49.443 ���� = ∑ | �� � | � �=1 � = 2,42 12 = 20,14 Metode Terpilih: Kuadratis Verifikasi Peramalan y yt e=y-yt |MR| UCL LCL 48.500 49.443 -943 - 41.132,90 -41.132,90 56.390 52.851 3.539 4.482,57 41.132,90 -41.132,90 43.722 55.329 -11.607 15.146,37 41.132,90 -41.132,90 66.595 56.877 9.718 21.324,44 41.132,90 -41.132,90 57.629 57.496 133 9.584,75 41.132,90 -41.132,90 53.556 57.186 -3.630 3.762,44 41.132,90 -41.132,90 65.082 55.946 9.136 12.765,37 41.132,90 -41.132,90 49.191 53.776 -4.585 13.720,82 41.132,90 -41.132,90 66.085 50.677 15.408 19.993,24 41.132,90 -41.132,90 26.583 46.648 -20.066 35.473,70 41.132,90 -41.132,90 30.807 41.690 -10.883 9.182,86 41.132,90 -41.132,90 49.581 35.802 13.779 24.661,92 41.132,90 -41.132,90 170.098,48 Universitas Sumatera Utara -50.000 -40.000 -30.000 -20.000 -10.000 10.000 20.000 30.000 40.000 50.000 P T . B W P Permintaan Irawan 683 tahun 2016 Irawan 683 UCL LCL Universitas Sumatera Utara PERAMALAN PRODUK IRAWAN 683-SP – PT. BWP Irawan 683-SP Bulan Demand Januari 68.244 Februari 43.281 Maret 33.775 April 77.136 Mei 67.574 Juni 95.638 Juli 68.345 Agustus 39.444 September 77.081 Oktober 61.182 November 37.870 Desember 83.053 Total 752.622 Metode Peramalan Terpilih: • Metode Eksponensial •