Metode Kuadratis Metode Siklis

PERAMALAN PRODUK IRAWAN 683-SP – PT. JWL Irawan 682 Bulan Demand Januari 114.774 Februari 68.013 Maret 65.861 April 114.028 Mei 114.582 Juni 126.242 Juli 92.117 Agustus 78.888 September 101.747 Oktober 104.519 November 77.634 Desember 88.086 Total 1.146.490 Metode Peramalan Terpilih: • Metode Kuadratis • Metode Siklis

1. Metode Kuadratis

KUADRATIS t y t² t³ t ⁴ ty t²y t yt 1 114.774 1 1 1 114.774 114.774 13 89.274 2 68.013 4 8 16 136.026 272.052 14 93.664 3 65.861 9 27 81 197.584 592.751 15 97.079 4 114.028 16 64 256 456.110 1.824.440 16 99.519 5 114.582 25 125 625 572.910 2.864.550 17 100.984 6 126.242 36 216 1.296 757.449 4.544.694 18 101.473 7 92.117 49 343 2.401 644.816 4.513.709 19 100.987 8 78.888 64 512 4.096 631.104 5.048.832 20 99.526 9 101.747 81 729 6.561 915.725 8.241.527 21 97.089 10 104.519 100 1.000 10.000 1.045.193 10.451.925 22 93.677 11 77.634 121 1.331 14.641 853.969 9.393.654 23 89.290 12 88.086 144 1.728 20.736 1.057.035 12.684.420 24 83.928 78 1.146.490 650 6.084 60.710 7.382.694 60.547.328 222 42.286 Universitas Sumatera Utara � = �� � 2 � 2 − � � � 4 � = 650 2 − 12 × 60.710 = −306.020 � = � � � � − � � �� � = 78 × 1.146.490 − 12 × 7.382.694 = 833.898 � = � � 2 � � − � � � 2 � � = 650 × 1.146.490 − 12 × 60.547.328 = 18.650.570 � = � � � � 2 − � � � 3 � = 78 × 650 − 12 × 6.084 = −22.308 � = �� �� 2 − � � � 2 � = 78 2 − 12 × 650 = −1.716 � = �� − �� �� − � 2 = 5.853,246 � = � − �� � = −487,630 � = ∑ � − � ∑ � − � ∑ � 2 � = 83.908,066 � ′ = � + �� + �� 2 � ′ = 83.908,066 + 5.853,246 + −487,630� 2 � ′ = 83.908,066 + 5.853,2461 + −487,6301 2 = 89.273,68 ≈ 89.274 ���� = ∑ | �� � | � �=1 � = 2,22 12 = 18,50

2. Metode Siklis

Jumlah periode adalah: � = 12 2 = 6 Universitas Sumatera Utara SIKLIS t Y Sin2πtn Cos2πtn Sin 2πtnCos 2πtn Sin2 2πtn Cos2 2πtn YSin2πtn YCos2πtn 1 114774 0,866 0,500 0,433 0,750 0,250 99394,28 57387 2 68013 0,866 -0,500 -0,433 0,750 0,250 58899,26 -34006,5 3 65861,25 0,000 -1,000 0,000 0,000 1,000 0,00 -65861,25 4 114027,5 -0,866 -0,500 0,433 0,750 0,250 -98747,82 -57013,75 5 114582 -0,866 0,500 -0,433 0,750 0,250 -99228,01 57291 6 126241,5 0,000 1,000 0,000 0,000 1,000 0,00 126241,5 7 92116,5 0,866 0,500 0,433 0,750 0,250 79772,89 46058,25 8 78888 0,866 -0,500 -0,433 0,750 0,250 68317,01 -39444 9 101747,25 0,000 -1,000 0,000 0,000 1,000 0,00 -101747,25 10 104519,25 -0,866 -0,500 0,433 0,750 0,250 -90513,67 -52259,625 11 77633,5 -0,866 0,500 -0,433 0,750 0,250 -67230,61 38816,75 12 88086,25 0,000 1,000 0,000 0,000 1,000 0,00 88086,25 78 1.146.490 6 6 -49.336,665 63.548,375 ∑ y = t a + b ∑ sin� 2 πt n � + c ∑ cos� 2 πt n � 1.146.490 = 12 a + b 0 + c 0 a = 1.146 .490 12 a = 95.540,833 ∑ y sin� 2 πt n � =a ∑ sin� 2 πt n � + b ∑ sin 2 � 2 πt n �+ c ∑ sin� 2 πt n �cos� 2 πt n � -49.336,665 = 95.540,833 0 + b 6 + c 0 b = −49.336,665 6 b = -8.222,778 ∑ y cos � 2 πt n � = a ∑ cos � 2 πt n �+ c ∑ cos 2 � 2 πt n �+ b ∑ sin� 2 πt n �cos� 2 πt n � 63.548,375 = 95.540,833 0 + c 6 + -8.222,778 0 c = 63.548 ,375 6 c = 10.591,395 y’= a + b sin � 2 πt n �+ c� 2 πt n � y’= 95.540,833 – 8.222,778 sin � 2 πt n � +5509,416 cos � 2 πt n � y’= 95.540,833 – 8.222,778 sin 0,866 + 5509,416 cos 0,500 = 93.715,605 Universitas Sumatera Utara ���� = ∑ | �� � | � �=1 � = 1,96 12 = 16,32 Metode Terpilih: Siklis Verifikasi Peramalan y yt e=y-yt |MR| UCL LCL 114.774 93.716 21.058 - 49.378,57 -49.378,57 68.013 83.124 -15.111 36.169,60 49.378,57 -49.378,57 65.861 84.949 -19.088 3.976,98 49.378,57 -49.378,57 114.028 97.366 16.661 35.749,63 49.378,57 -49.378,57 114.582 107.957 6.625 10.036,90 49.378,57 -49.378,57 126.242 106.132 20.109 13.484,73 49.378,57 -49.378,57 92.117 93.716 -1.599 21.708,38 49.378,57 -49.378,57 78.888 83.124 -4.236 2.637,10 49.378,57 -49.378,57 101.747 84.949 16.798 21.034,02 49.378,57 -49.378,57 104.519 97.366 7.153 9.644,62 49.378,57 -49.378,57 77.634 107.957 -30.324 37.477,15 49.378,57 -49.378,57 88.086 106.132 -18.046 12.277,98 49.378,57 -49.378,57 204.197,08 PERAMALAN PRODUK IRAWAN 684-S – PT. JWL -100.000 -50.000 50.000 100.000 P T . JW L Peramalan Irawan 683-SP tahun 2016 Irawan 683-SP UCL LCL Universitas Sumatera Utara Irawan 682 Bulan Demand Januari 80.786 Februari 58.149 Maret 124.014 April 76.981 Mei 96.601 Juni 137.403 Juli 113.036 Agustus 142.224 September 111.110 Oktober 115.477 November 145.007 Desember 68.058 Total 1.268.844 Metode Peramalan Terpilih: • Metode Eksponensial •