Metode Eksponensial Metode Kuadratis

PERAMALAN PRODUK IRAWAN 683 – PT. JWL Irawan 682 Bulan Demand Januari 101.850 Februari 110.329 Maret 119.021 April 143.705 Mei 115.259 Juni 124.025 Juli 115.372 Agustus 142.395 September 191.647 Oktober 122.280 November 105.624 Desember 145.989 Total 1.537.494 Metode Peramalan Terpilih: • Metode Eksponensial • Metode Kuadratis

1. Metode Eksponensial

EKSPONENSIAL t y lny

t.lny t²

y 1 101.850 11,53 11,53 1 112.965 2 110.329 11,61 23,22 4 115.263 3 119.021 11,69 35,06 9 117.607 4 143.705 11,88 47,50 16 119.999 5 115.259 11,65 58,27 25 122.439 6 124.025 11,73 70,37 36 124.930 7 115.372 11,66 81,59 49 127.471 8 142.395 11,87 94,93 64 130.063 9 191.647 12,16 109,47 81 132.709 10 122.280 11,71 117,14 100 135.408 11 105.624 11,57 127,24 121 138.162 12 145.989 11,89 142,70 144 140.972 78 1.537.494 140,95 919,03 650 1.517.987 Universitas Sumatera Utara � = � ∑ �. ��� − ∑ � ∑ ��� � ∑ � 2 − ∑ � 2 � = 12 × 919,03 − 78 × 140,95 12 × 650 − 78 2 = −0,0200135 ln � = ∑ ��� − � ∑ � � = 11,614 � = 110.713,2 � ′ = �� �� � ′ = 110.713,2 � −0,0200135 � � ′ = 110.713,2 � −0,0200135 1 = 112.964,95 ≈ 112.965 ���� = ∑ | �� � | � �=1 � = 1,357 12 = 11,24

2. Metode Kuadratis

KUADRATIS t y t² t³ t ⁴ ty t²y t yt 1 101.850 1 1 1 101.850 101.850 13 102.712 2 110.329 4 8 16 220.658 441.315 14 111.130 3 119.021 9 27 81 357.063 1.071.189 15 118.408 4 143.705 16 64 256 574.820 2.299.280 16 124.547 5 115.259 25 125 625 576.293 2.881.463 17 129.548 6 124.025 36 216 1.296 744.150 4.464.900 18 133.409 7 115.372 49 343 2.401 807.602 5.653.216 19 136.130 8 142.395 64 512 4.096 1.139.160 9.113.280 20 137.713 9 191.647 81 729 6.561 1.724.819 15.523.367 21 138.157 10 122.280 100 1.000 10.000 1.222.795 12.227.950 22 137.461 11 105.624 121 1.331 14.641 1.161.864 12.780.504 23 135.626 12 145.989 144 1.728 20.736 1.751.862 21.022.344 24 132.653 78 1.537.494 650 6.084 60.710 10.382.935 87.580.657 222 1.537.494 � = �� � 2 � 2 − � � � 4 � = 650 2 − 12 × 60.710 = −306.020 � = � � � � − � � �� � = 78 × 1.537.494 − 12 × 10.382.935 = −4.670.724 � = � � 2 � � − � � � 2 � � = 650 × 1.537.494 − 12 × 87.580.657 = −51.597.106 Universitas Sumatera Utara � = � � � � 2 − � � � 3 � = 78 × 650 − 12 × 6.084 = −22.308 � = �� �� 2 − � � � 2 � = 78 2 − 12 × 650 = −1.716 � = �� −�� �� −� 2 = 10126,336 � = �−�� � = -569,574 � = ∑ �−� ∑ �−� ∑ � 2 � = 93155,227 � ′ = � + �� + �� 2 � ′ = 93155,227 + 9.498,714 � + −608,1283� 2 � ′ = 93155,227 + 9.498,7141 + −608,12831 2 = 102.711,99 ≈ 102.712 ���� = ∑ | �� � | � �=1 � = 1,35 12 = 11,21 Metode Terpilih: Kuadratis Verifikasi Peramalan y yt e=y-yt |MR| UCL LCL 101.850 102.712 -862 - 65.490,63 -65.490,63 110.329 111.130 -801 61,14 65.490,63 -65.490,63 119.021 118.408 613 1.413,79 65.490,63 -65.490,63 143.705 124.547 19.158 18.544,69 65.490,63 -65.490,63 115.259 129.548 -14.289 33.446,67 65.490,63 -65.490,63 124.025 133.409 -9.384 4.905,48 65.490,63 -65.490,63 115.372 136.130 -20.759 11.375,12 65.490,63 -65.490,63 142.395 137.713 4.682 25.440,53 65.490,63 -65.490,63 191.647 138.157 53.490 48.807,93 65.490,63 -65.490,63 Universitas Sumatera Utara y yt e=y-yt |MR| UCL LCL 122.280 137.461 -15.182 68.671,42 65.490,63 -65.490,63 105.624 135.626 -30.002 14.820,77 65.490,63 -65.490,63 145.989 132.653 13.336 43.338,38 65.490,63 -65.490,63 270.825,91 -80.000 -60.000 -40.000 -20.000 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 P T . JW L Peramalan Irawan 683 tahun 2016 Irawan 683 UCL LCL Universitas Sumatera Utara PERAMALAN PRODUK IRAWAN 683-SP – PT. JWL Irawan 682 Bulan Demand Januari 114.774 Februari 68.013 Maret 65.861 April 114.028 Mei 114.582 Juni 126.242 Juli 92.117 Agustus 78.888 September 101.747 Oktober 104.519 November 77.634 Desember 88.086 Total 1.146.490 Metode Peramalan Terpilih: • Metode Kuadratis •