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Industry: A Policy Simulation Analysis. Ph.D. Dissertation. University of the Philippines, Los Banos.
Situmorang, S. 2009. Analisis Penawaran dan Permintaan Pulp dan Kertas Indonesia di Pasar Domestik .Jurnal Ilmiah ESAI, 31: 272-282.
Sukmananto, B. 2007. Dampak Kebijakan Perdagangan terhadap Kinerja Ekspor Produk Pengolahan Kayu Primer Indonesia. Disertasi Doktor. Sekolah
Pascasarjana, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor. Suryandari, E.Y. 2006. Analisis Permintaah Kayu Bulat Industri Pengolahan
Kayu. Jurnal Penelitian Sosial dan Ekonomi Kehutanan, 51: 15-26. Thomas, R.L. 1997. Modern Econometrics: An Introduction. Department of
Economics. Manchester Metropolitan University. Addison-Wesley Longman, London.
Timotius. 2000. Analisis Ekonometrika Perkembangan Industri Kayu Lapis Indonesia 1975-2010: Suatu Simulasi Kebijakan. Disertasi Doktor.
Program Pascasarjana, Institut Pertanian Bogor, Bogor. Turner, J,A., J. Buongiorno, and S. Zhu. 2006. An Economic Model of
International Wood Supply, Forest Stock and Forest Area Change. Scandinavian Journal of Forest Research, 21: 73-86.
Varian, H.R. 1987. Intermediate Microeconomics: A Modern Approach. First Edition. W.W. Norton Company, Inc., New York.
__________. 1992. Microeconomic Analysis. Norton, New York. Wan, M. 2009. Analysis of Chinas Primary Wood Products Market - Sawnwood
and Plywood. Thesis for Masters Degree in Forest Products Marketing. Department of Forest Economics. University of Helsinki, Helsinki.
Wear, D.N., and P.J. Parks. 1994. The Economics of Timber Supply: An Analytical Synthesis of Modeling Approaches. Natural Resource
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2006-2009. The World Bank, Jakarta.
LAMPIRAN
103
Tahun PQ1
PQ2 PQ3
PL PT1
PT2 PT3
PE GDP
I1 I2
I3 QKL
1995 280574.04
137638.11 297.74
63789.71 105955.27
33755.95 31474.10
141.60 1219712.17 63036503.90 164247.97 162200.00 9500000.00 1996
347010.93 178464.96
369.34 78603.97
148295.79 37489.01
43255.94 153.89 1315071.55 66978092.00 218221.36 171815.00 9575000.00
1997 316858.33
155809.89 295.87
104666.19 134583.99
48591.97 40895.43
173.24 1376878.32 55124213.07 168225.99 108300.00 9600000.00 1998
1189220.82 1038343.61 885.33
202394.79 272653.67
94399.81 84378.91
335.59 1196139.28 62145775.09 99973.83
82604.00 7800000.00 1999
1869136.90 1850612.76 995.26
276640.53 290634.63 131789.35
99271.26 383.14 1205516.44 55124213.07
52918.00 85744.00 7500000.00
2000 2409895.00 2084759.00
2638.00 402156.00
377262.20 177280.00 132673.83
600.00 1264918.70 44032289.69 24165.52
58152.00 8200000.00 2001
2052605.41 1743928.24 1741.49
592597.60 383573.79 207446.83
110573.26 1342.30 1442984.60 44039094.69
11172.89 56299.00 7300000.00
2002 2585634.35 3484201.67
2533.65 734787.13 1464227.27 235934.57
416347.31 1868.07 1506124.40 44039094.69
30894.00 87614.00 7550000.00
2003 4600782.34 2765293.53
1814.58 864629.97
890188.36 341216.00 306676.87
2137.09 1579559.00 44039094.69 24194.00 100497.00 6111000.00
2004 5191782.77 2653048.38
3390.93 990712.90 1810479.24 306138.20
587355.08 2288.36 1660578.70 43941472.26
19200.00 112714.00 4514000.00 2005
6501696.64 1705594.45 3896.45 1169190.56 3914688.62 371347.30 1188330.19
8208.05 1750815.20 60914720.00 20527.00 142598.00 4534000.00
2006 6049184.64 3882595.57
5506.53 1457555.83 4392535.05 448273.24 1239197.41 9244.86 1847126.70 64245879.43
31784.51 200167.36 3812000.00 2007
8601085.38 4697672.03 10213.49 1682142.36 2524154.51 526126.14
740531.91 8648.68 1964327.30 60874720.00
49188.72 120395.24 3454000.00 2008 11099944.83 7096234.14
13177.84 2066047.96 4813034.87 654367.19 1368846.84 11988.14 2082315.90 59152642.69 182586.35 121370.09 3353000.00
2009 12625814.53 6370590.57 12506.39 2665416.92 6174042.65 744716.19 1012547.67
11603.48 2176975.50 59175390.72 324534.88 122344.95 2996000.00
Tahun QKG
QP TREND
QT1 QT2
QT3 IKL
IKG IP
IKB EKL
EKG EP
EKB
1995 6500000
2022000 1
42349207 308815.47
205877 1800
371900 684924
56000 8376000
371900 568892
30000 1996
7200000 2561000
2 46427102
284560.56 189707
3200 379000
636700 95900
8564000 379000
1128600 20000
1997 7100000
2979000 3
44757712 255535.68
170357.1 368000
796600 103000
8500000 368000
1285300 45000
1998 7000000
1895000 4
42901103 288126
192084 4600
575000 614300
149000 7424000
575000 1634400
125000 1999
6500000 1725000
5 38732625
537222.6 358148.4
9100 1300000
757200 197000
6290800 1300000
1176100 259000
2000 6500000
3726000 6
30532031 2270162.4
1513442 6000
1443000 756700
147000 5154000
1443000 1352800
1606000 2001
6750000 5587000
7 21611041
3340369.2 2226913
3500 2424000
564200 96000
6336000 2424000
1697900 1451900
2002 6230000
5587000 8
29128411 2545519.3
1697013 4733
2000000 590547
82041 5826000
2000000 2245066
1000000 2003
7620000 5587000
9 27743285
3243093.3 2142216
1744 2000000
559815 56026
5091929 2000000
2375587 800000
2004 4330000
5587000 10
29527067 4520328.9
2962339 10093
2000000 628750
61042 4004600
2000000 1676813
925400 2005
4330000 5587000
11 27163265
7179099.1 4269045
31846 1924299
654145 82501
3406000 1924200
2468880 675000
2006 4330000
3682000 12
10648280 7814654.2
4816476 91500
1924299 716625
54668 3087000
1924200 2761539
675000 2007
4330000 5282000
13 8611519.9
12932895 8386776
114500 89600
726023 54668
2768800 89600
2327400 675000
2008 4169000
5753000 14
12767416 15144441
9365832 81700
72100 812900
69300 2568200
72100 2621500
2009 4169000
4863000 15
5895243.1 14414263
8342048 56915
49900 787228
39700 2204656
49900 2620600
Ke te rangan
PQ1: Harga riil kayu bulat hutan alam Rpm3 I1: Stok produksi kayu bulat hutan alam produksi m3
QT3: Produksi kayu bulat HTI pulp m3 PQ2: Harga riil kayu bulat HTI perkakas Rpm3
I2: Luas HTI Perkakas Ha IKL: impor kayu lapis m3
PQ3: Harga riil bulat HTI pulp Rpm3 I3: Luas HTI Pulp Ha
IKG: Impor kayu gergaji m3 PL: Upah rill tenaga kerja Rpbulan
QKL : Poduksi kayu lapis m3 IP: Impor pulp ton
PT1 : Harga riil kayu bulat hutan alam Rpm3 QKG: Produksi kayu gergaji m3
IKB: Impor kayu bulat m3 PT2: Harga rill kayu bulat HTI perkakas Rpm3
QP: Produksi pulp EKL: Ekspor kayu lapis m3
PT3: Harga riil kayu bulat HTI pulp Rpm3 TREND : kecenderungaan teknologi
EKG: Ekspor kayu gergaji m3 PE: Harga riil bahan bakar solar
QT1: Produksi kayu bulat hutan alam m3 EP: Ekspor pulp m3
GDP : GDP Riil Rp. Milyar QT2: Produksi kayu bulat HTI perkakas m3
EKB: Ekspor kayu bulat m3
Lampiran 1. Data Penelitian
Lampiran 2. Program RATS untuk Estimasi Parameter
CAL 1995 ALL 2009:1
open data erwin.prn dataformat=prn,org=obs
LOG QT1 LnQT1 LOG QT2 LnQT2
LOG QT3 LnQT3 SET RQT1 = QT1QT1{1}
SET RQT2 = QT2QT2{1} SET RQT3 = QT3QT3{1}
LOG RQT1 LnRQT1 LOG RQT2 LnRQT2
LOG RQT3 LnRQT3 LOG QKL LnQKL
LOG QKG LnQKG LOG QP LnQP
SET RQKL = QKLQKL{1} SET RQKG = QKGQKG{1}
SET RQP = QPQP{1} LOG RQKL LnRQKL
LOG RQKG LnRQKG LOG RQP LnRQP
LOG PT1 LnPT1 LOG PT2 LnPT2
LOG PT3 LnPT3 SET RPT1 = PT1PT1{1}
SET RPT2 = PT2PT2{1} SET RPT3 = PT3PT3{1}
LOG RPT1 LnRPT1 LOG RPT2 LnRPT2
LOG RPT3 LnRPT3 LOG PQ1 LnPQ1
LOG PQ2 LnPQ2 LOG PQ3 LnPQ3
SET RPQ1 = PQ1PQ1{1} SET RPQ2 = PQ2PQ2{1}
SET RPQ3 = PQ3PQ3{1} LOG RPQ1 LnRPQ1
LOG RPQ2 LnRPQ2 LOG RPQ3 LnRPQ3
LOG PL LnPL
LOG PE LnPE SET RPL = PLPL{1}
SET RPE = PEPE{1} LOG RPL LnRPL
LOG RPE LnRPE LOG I1 LnI1
LOG I2 LnI2 LOG I3 LnI3
SET RI1 =I1I1{1} SET RI2 =I2I2{1}
SET RI3 =I3I3{1} LOG RI1 LnRI1
LOG RI2 LnRI2 LOG RI3 LnRI3
LOG GDP LnGDP SET RGDP = GDPGDP{1}
LOG RGDP LnRGDP DISPLAY
DISPLAY OLS Regression for each equation DISPLAY
OLS Regression for each equation linreg LnQT1
constant LnPT1 LnI1 LnGDP linreg LnQT1
constant LnQKL LnQKG LnPT1 linreg LnQT2
constant LnPT2 LnI2 LnGDP linreg LnQT2
constant LnQKL LnQKG LnPT2 linreg LnQT3
constant LnPT3 LnI3 LnGDP linreg LnQT3
constant LnQP LnPT3 linreg LnQKL
constant TREND LnPQ1 LnPL LnPT1 LnPE linreg LnQKL
constant LnGDP LnPQ1 linreg LnQKG
constant TREND LnPQ2 LnPL LnPT1 LnPE linreg LnQKG
constant LnGDP LnPQ2 linreg LnQP
constant TREND LnPQ3 LnPL LnPT3 LnPE linreg LnQP
constant LnGDP LnPQ3
DISPLAY DISPLAY OLS+AR1 Regression for each equation
DISPLAY AR1 Regression for each equation
AR1 LnQT1 constant LnPT1 LnI1 LnGDP
AR1 LnQT1 constant LnQKL LnQKG LnPT1
AR1 LnQT2 constant LnPT2 LnI2 LnGDP
AR1 LnQT2 constant LnQKL LnQKG LnPT2
AR1 LnQT3 constant LnPT3 LnI3 LnGDP
AR1 LnQT3 constant LnQP LnPT3
AR1 LnQKL constant TREND LnPQ1 LnPL LnPT1 LnPE
AR1 LnQKL constant LnGDP LnPQ1
AR1 LnQKG constant TREND LnPQ2 LnPL LnPT1 LnPE
AR1 LnQKG constant LnGDP LnPQ2
AR1 LnQP constant TREND LnPQ3 LnPL LnPT3 LnPE
AR1 LnQP constant LnGDP LnPQ3
DISPLAY DISPLAY 2SLS Regression for simultaneous equations
DISPLAY 2SLS Regression for simultaneous equations
INSTRUMENTS constant LnI1 LnI2 LnI3 LnGDP LnPL LnPE linregINST LnQT1
constant LnPT1 LnI1 LnGDP linregINST LnQT1
constant LnQKL LnQKG LnPT1 linregINST LnQT2
constant LnPT2 LnI2 LnGDP linregINST LnQT2
constant LnQKL LnQKG LnPT2 linregINST LnQT3
constant LnPT3 LnI3 LnGDP linregINST LnQT3
constant LnQP LnPT3 linregINST LnQKL
constant TREND LnPQ1 LnPL LnPT1 LnPE
linregINST LnQKL constant LnGDP LnPQ1
linregINST LnQKG constant TREND LnPQ2 LnPL LnPT1 LnPE
linregINST LnQKG constant LnGDP LnPQ2
linregINST LnQP constant TREND LnPQ3 LnPL LnPT3 LnPE
linregINST LnQP constant LnGDP LnPQ3
DISPLAY DISPLAY 2SLS+AR1 Regression for simultaneous equations
DISPLAY 2SLS with AR1 Regression for simultaneous equations
INSTRUMENTS constant LnI1 LnI2 LnI3 LnGDP LnPL LnPE AR1INST,METHOD=CORC LnQT1
constant LnPT1 LnI1 LnGDP AR1INST,METHOD=CORC LnQT1
constant LnQKL LnQKG LnPT1 AR1INST,METHOD=CORC LnQT2
constant LnPT2 LnI2 LnGDP AR1INST,METHOD=CORC LnQT2
constant LnQKL LnQKG LnPT2 AR1INST,METHOD=CORC LnQT3
constant LnPT3 LnI3 LnGDP AR1INST,METHOD=CORC LnQT3
constant LnQP LnPT3 AR1INST,METHOD=CORC LnQKL
constant TREND LnPQ1 LnPL LnPT1 LnPE AR1INST,METHOD=CORC LnQKL
constant LnGDP LnPQ1 AR1INST,METHOD=CORC LnQKG
constant TREND LnPQ2 LnPL LnPT1 LnPE AR1INST,METHOD=CORC LnQKG
constant LnGDP LnPQ2 AR1INST,METHOD=CORC LnQP
constant TREND LnPQ3 LnPL LnPT3 LnPE AR1INST,METHOD=CORC LnQP
constant LnGDP LnPQ3 DISPLAY
DISPLAY OLS Regression for each equation in ratio without Constant
DISPLAY OLS Regression for each equation
linreg LnRQT1
LnRPT1 LnRI1 LnRGDP linreg LnRQT1
LnRQKL LnRQKG LnRPT1 linreg LnRQT2
LnRPT2 LnRI2 LnRGDP linreg LnRQT2
LnRQKL LnRQKG LnRPT2 linreg LnRQT3
LnRPT3 LnRI3 LnRGDP linreg LnRQT3
LnRQP LnRPT3 linreg LnRQKL
TREND LnRPQ1 LnRPL LnRPT1 LnRPE linreg LnRQKL
LnRGDP LnRPQ1 linreg LnQKG
TREND LnRPQ2 LnRPL LnRPT1 LnRPE linreg LnQKG
LnRGDP LnRPQ2 linreg LnRQP
TREND LnRPQ3 LnRPL LnRPT3 LnRPE linreg LnRQP
LnRGDP LnRPQ3 DISPLAY
DISPLAY OLS+AR1 Regression for each equation in ratiowithout Constant
DISPLAY AR1 Regression for each equation
AR1 LnRQT1 LnRPT1 LnRI1 LnRGDP
AR1 LnRQT1 LnRQKL LnRQKG LnRPT1
AR1 LnRQT2 LnRPT2 LnRI2 LnRGDP
AR1 LnRQT2 LnRQKL LnRQKG LnRPT2
AR1 LnRQT3 LnRPT3 LnRI3 LnRGDP
AR1 LnRQT3 LnRQP LnRPT3
AR1 LnRQKL TREND LnRPQ1 LnRPL LnRPT1 LnRPE
AR1 LnRQKL LnRGDP LnRPQ1
AR1 LnQKG TREND LnRPQ2 LnRPL LnRPT1 LnRPE
AR1 LnQKG LnRGDP LnRPQ2
AR1 LnRQP TREND LnRPQ3 LnRPL LnRPT3 LnRPE
109
AR1 LnRQP LnRGDP LnRPQ3
DISPLAY DISPLAY 2SLS Regression for simultaneous equations in
ratiowithout Constant DISPLAY
2SLS Regression for simultaneous equations INSTRUMENTS LnRI1 LnRI2 LnRI3 LnRGDP LnRPL LnRPE
linregINST LnRQT1 LnRPT1 LnRI1 LnRGDP
linregINST LnRQT1 LnRQKL LnRQKG LnRPT1
linregINST LnRQT2 LnRPT2 LnRI2 LnRGDP
linregINST LnRQT2 LnRQKL LnRQKG LnRPT2
linregINST LnRQT3 LnRPT3 LnRI3 LnRGDP
linregINST LnRQT3 LnRQP LnRPT3
linregINST LnRQKL TREND LnRPQ1 LnRPL LnRPT1 LnRPE
linregINST LnRQKL LnRGDP LnRPQ1
linregINST LnRQKG TREND LnRPQ2 LnRPL LnRPT1 LnRPE
linregINST LnRQKG LnRGDP LnRPQ2
linregINST LnRQP TREND LnRPQ3 LnRPL LnRPT3 LnRPE
linregINST LnRQP LnRGDP LnRPQ3
DISPLAY DISPLAY 2SLS + AR1 Regression for simultaneous equations in
ratio without Constant DISPLAY
2SLS with AR1 Regression for simultaneous equations INSTRUMENTS LnRI1 LnRI2 LnRI3 LnRGDP LnRPL LnRPE
AR1INST,METHOD=CORC LnRQT1 LnRPT1 LnRI1 LnRGDP
AR1INST,METHOD=CORC LnRQT1 LnRQKL LnRQKG LnRPT1
AR1INST,METHOD=CORC LnRQT2 LnRPT2 LnRI2 LnRGDP
AR1INST,METHOD=CORC LnRQT2 LnRQKL LnRQKG LnRPT2
AR1INST,METHOD=CORC LnRQT3 LnRPT3 LnRI3 LnRGDP
AR1INST,METHOD=CORC LnRQT3 LnRQP LnRPT3
AR1INST,METHOD=CORC RQKL TREND LnRPQ1 LnRPL LnRPT1 LnRPE
AR1INST,METHOD=CORC LnRQKL LnRGDP LnRPQ1
AR1INST,METHOD=CORC LnRQKG TREND LnRPQ2 LnRPL LnRPT1 LnRPE
AR1INST,METHOD=CORC LnRQKG LnRGDP LnRPQ2
AR1INST,METHOD=CORC LnRQP TREND LnRPQ3 LnRPL LnRPT3 LnRPE
AR1INST,METHOD=CORC LnRQP LnRGDP LnRPQ3
DISPLAY DISPLAY OLS Regression for each equation in ratio with
Constant DISPLAY
OLS Regression for each equation linreg LnRQT1
constant LnRPT1 LnRI1 LnRGDP linreg LnRQT1
constant LnRQKL LnRQKG LnRPT1 linreg LnRQT2
constant LnRPT2 LnRI2 LnRGDP linreg LnRQT2
constant LnRQKL LnRQKG LnRPT2 linreg LnRQT3
constant LnRPT3 LnRI3 LnRGDP linreg LnRQT3
constant LnRQP LnRPT3 linreg LnRQKL
constant TREND LnRPQ1 LnRPL LnRPT1 LnRPE linreg LnRQKL
constant LnRGDP LnRPQ1 linreg LnQKG
constant TREND LnRPQ2 LnRPL LnRPT1 LnRPE linreg LnQKG
constant LnRGDP LnRPQ2 linreg LnRQP
constant TREND LnRPQ3 LnRPL LnRPT3 LnRPE linreg LnRQP
constant LnRGDP LnRPQ3 DISPLAY
DISPLAY OLS+AR1 Regression for each equation in ratio with Constant
DISPLAY AR1 Regression for each equation
AR1 LnRQT1 constant LnRPT1 LnRI1 LnRGDP
AR1 LnRQT1 constant LnRQKL LnRQKG LnRPT1
AR1 LnRQT2 constant LnRPT2 LnRI2 LnRGDP
AR1 LnRQT2 constant LnRQKL LnRQKG LnRPT2
AR1 LnRQT3 constant LnRPT3 LnRI3 LnRGDP
AR1 LnRQT3 constant LnRQP LnRPT3
AR1 LnRQKL constant TREND LnRPQ1 LnRPL LnRPT1 LnRPE
AR1 LnRQKL constant LnRGDP LnRPQ1
AR1 LnQKG constant TREND LnRPQ2 LnRPL LnRPT1 LnRPE
AR1 LnQKG constant LnRGDP LnRPQ2
AR1 LnRQP constant TREND LnRPQ3 LnRPL LnRPT3 LnRPE
AR1 LnRQP constant LnRGDP LnRPQ3
DISPLAY DISPLAY 2SLS Regression for simultaneous equations in ratio
with Constant DISPLAY
2SLS Regression for simultaneous equations INSTRUMENTS constant LnRI1 LnRI2 LnRI3 LnRGDP LnRPL LnRPE
linregINST LnRQT1 constant LnRPT1 LnRI1 LnRGDP
linregINST LnRQT1 constant LnRQKL LnRQKG LnRPT1
linregINST LnRQT2 constant LnRPT2 LnRI2 LnRGDP
linregINST LnRQT2 constant LnRQKL LnRQKG LnRPT2
linregINST LnRQT3 constant LnRPT3 LnRI3 LnRGDP
linregINST LnRQT3 constant LnRQP LnRPT3
linregINST LnRQKL constant TREND LnRPQ1 LnRPL LnRPT1 LnRPE
linregINST LnRQKL constant LnRGDP LnRPQ1
linregINST LnRQKG constant TREND LnRPQ2 LnRPL LnRPT1 LnRPE
linregINST LnRQKG constant LnRGDP LnRPQ2
linregINST LnRQP constant TREND LnRPQ3 LnRPL LnRPT3 LnRPE
linregINST LnRQP constant LnRGDP LnRPQ3
DISPLAY DISPLAY 2SLS + AR1 Regression for simultaneous equations in
ratio with Constant DISPLAY
2SLS with AR1 Regression for simultaneous equations INSTRUMENTS constant LnRI1 LnRI2 LnRI3 LnRGDP LnRPL LnRPE
AR1INST,METHOD=CORC LnRQT1 constant LnRPT1 LnRI1 LnRGDP
AR1INST,METHOD=CORC LnRQT1 constant LnRQKL LnRQKG LnRPT1
AR1INST,METHOD=CORC LnRQT2 constant LnRPT2 LnRI2 LnRGDP
AR1INST,METHOD=CORC LnRQT2 constant LnRQKL LnRQKG LnRPT2
AR1INST,METHOD=CORC LnRQT3 constant LnRPT3 LnRI3 LnRGDP
AR1INST,METHOD=CORC LnRQT3 constant LnRQP LnRPT3
AR1INST,METHOD=CORC RQKL constant TREND LnRPQ1 LnRPL LnRPT1 LnRPE
AR1INST,METHOD=CORC LnRQKL constant LnRGDP LnRPQ1
AR1INST,METHOD=CORC LnRQKG constant TREND LnRPQ2 LnRPL LnRPT1 LnRPE
AR1INST,METHOD=CORC LnRQKG constant LnRGDP LnRPQ2
AR1INST,METHOD=CORC LnRQP constant TREND LnRPQ3 LnRPL LnRPT3 LnRPE
AR1INST,METHOD=CORC LnRQP constant LnRGDP LnRPQ3
Lampiran 3. Ringkasan Hasil Pengolahan Estimasi Parameter Menggunakan RATS
115
Lampiran 4. Faktor Kalibrasi
PLYWOOD; Calibrated constant terms
1995 1996
1997 1998
1999 2000
2001 2002
Price equation Supply equation
4.66 3.68
4.30 0.75
0.42 0.37
0.47 0.39
Demand equation 428816
394482 416488
188854 654606
1697735 507266
935582
SAWNWOOD; Calibrated constant terms
1995 1996
1997 1998
1999 2000
2001 2002
Price equation Supply equation
4.19E+08 5.09E+08
5.35E+08 6.71E+08
6.71E+08 7.93E+08
9.90E+08 1.16E+09
Demand equation 11.94
12.51 11.65
15.41 14.87
14.30 12.82
11.97
PULP; Calibrated constant terms
1995 1996
1997 1998
1999 2000
2001 2002
Price equation Supply equation
7.E+19 2.E+20
5.E+20 3.E+21
7.E+21 4.E+22
5.E+23 2.E+24
Demand equation 5.6778E-10 4.7304E-10 4.6901E-10 3.3672E-10 5.0871E-10 1.4122E-09 1.2287E-09 1.07198E-09
LOGS HA; Calibrated constant terms
1995 1996
1997 1998
1999 2000
2001 2002
Price equation Supply equation
9.9958E-32 7.7984E-32
1.6073E-31 1.0509E-31
1.5343E-31 2.8782E-31
1.775E-31 2.1891E-31
Demand equation 6.9635E-22 6.1535E-22 6.0564E-22 9.771E-22
1.148E-21 7.4874E-22
6.0433E-22 1.07199E-21
LOGS HTI PERKAKAS; Calibrated constant terms
1995 1996
1997 1998
1999 2000
2001 2002
Price equation Supply equation
1.9482E-39 3.9925E-40
7.0352E-40 5.0481E-39
9.0553E-38 6.2445E-36
1.2823E-34 1.13151E-36
Demand equation 1.1022E-17 9.4506E-18 8.7455E-18 1.8795E-17 4.2272E-17 1.4513E-16 2.9039E-16 2.15259E-16
LOGS HTI PULP; Calibrated constant terms
1995 1996
1997 1998
1999 2000
2001 2002
Price equation Supply equation
1.0136E-38 4.6811E-39
2.5553E-38 7.9602E-38
1.1086E-37 1.6409E-36
2.0954E-36 8.91268E-38
Demand equation 0.01611534 0.01147956 0.00860829 0.01724829 0.03625039 0.06330853 0.05735968 0.047330053
Lampiran 4. Lanjutan
PLYWOOD; Calibrated constant terms
2003 2004
2005 2006
2007 2008
2009
Price equation Supply equation
0.15562139 0.10057702 0.0951939 0.09078369 0.05222597 0.03919331 0.03000291
Demand equation
606168.691 311657.079 715813.467 491323.325 505484.097 565796.938 561111.093
SAWNWOOD; Calibrated constant terms
2003 2004
2005 2006
2007 2008
2009
Price equation Supply equation
1390969460 920554258 1276634076 1321113375 1216732917 1381557435 1518843846
Demand equation
13.701656 7.37777578 6.75110988 6.83071154 6.5176723 6.11479707 5.79607763
PULP; Calibrated constant terms
2003 2004
2005 2006
2007 2008
2009
Price equation Supply equation
3.1915E+24 4.6496E+24 3.9847E+25 4.4685E+25 5.0395E+25 1.5241E+26 2.1026E+26
Demand equation
8.1594E-10 1.0224E-09 7.6201E-10 3.1434E-10 7.1075E-10 6.9572E-10 4.6431E-10
LOGS HA; Calibrated constant terms
2003 2004
2005 2006
2007 2008
2009
Price equation Supply equation
2.0227E-31 2.0107E-31 4.4139E-32 1.3089E-32 1.2683E-32 1.9455E-32 8.4856E-33
Demand equation
9.2624E-22 7.0353E-21 7.0131E-21 3.7586E-21 3.4304E-21 6.8185E-21 4.0347E-21
LOGS HTI PERKAKAS; Calibrated constant terms
2003 2004
2005 2006
2007 2008
2009
Price equation Supply equation
2.3587E-36 8.2283E-36 6.9627E-36 8.7727E-37 1.693E-37 5.9311E-40 4.0326E-41
Demand equation
4.4642E-16 1.9625E-15 3.146E-15 5.5778E-15 1.2253E-14 1.6292E-14
2.13E-14
LOGS HTI PULP; Calibrated constant terms
2003 2004
2005 2006
2007 2008
2009
Price equation Supply equation
6.836E-38 3.2045E-38 9.0802E-39 2.0812E-39 3.5139E-38 2.0653E-38 1.9184E-38
Demand equation
0.05866089 0.08434384 0.12679772 0.23360565 0.25856939 0.27110329 0.28867102
iii
ABSTRACT
ERWINSYAH. Impact of Forest Royalty and Reforestation Fund on Welfare. HARIANTO as Chairman, BONAR M. SINAGA and BINTANG C.H.
SIMANGUNSONG as Members of the Advisory Committee In the last three decades the forestry sector has given important contribution to the
government revenues, among others are recieved from forest royalty PSDH and reforestation fund DR. To determine the impact of policy implementation of PSDH
and DR on welfare then elasticity of supply and demand of roundwood input market and wood products output market using a computer statistical program RATS
Regression Analysis of Time Series was estimated, and conducted a simulation aplication of 9 types of policy scenarios. The data used in this study was timeseries
data taken from year 1995 to year 2009. Results of this study were included 1 on supply and demand side, the price of roundwood was inelastic, except of the
construction wood plantation HTI was unit elastic. Price of plywood, sawn timber and pulp is inelastic, 2 increasing PSDH and DR separately will increase the price
of roundwood, except the price of pulp wood HTI, and will also increase the price of wood products. An increased DR and PSDH at the sametime will increase the price
of roundwood and wood products, 3 increased PSDH will produce higher production of roundwood and wood products, except for plywood which was not
supported by increased market prices. Increased DR will increase the roundwood production, except the pulp wood HTI which was unaffected. Increased DR will
produce the increased production of sawn timber. While increased DR and PSDH will simultaneously increase the production of natural forest roundwood, construction
wood HTI and pulp wod HTI as well as sawntimber and pulp products, and 4 increased PSDH and DR will increase producer welfare and reduce consumer welfare
of roundwood. Keywords: Roundwood, Wood products, Supply, Demand, Elasticity, Welfare.