Hasil Estimasi Persamaan Harga Riil Ekspor Kertas Indonesia

Lampiran 7. Hasil Validasi Model Permintaan dan Pernawaran Pulp dan Kertas Indonesia The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Model Summary Model Variables 16 Endogenous 16 Parameters 65 Range Variable Tahun Equations 16 Number of Statements 44 Program Lag Length 1 The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Data Set Options DATA= VALIDASI OUT= A Solution Summary Variables Solved 16 Simulation Lag Length 1 Solution Range Tahun First 2001 Last 2011 Solution Method NEWTON CONVERGE= 1E-8 Maximum CC 2.56E-15 Maximum Iterations 1 Total Iterations 11 Average Iterations 1 Observations Processed Read 12 Lagged 1 Solved 11 First 13 Last 23 Variables Solved For DPI SPI QPI HRPI HRIMPI HRXPI MPI XPI DKI SKI QKI HRKI HRMKI HRXKI MKI XKI Lampiran 7. Lanjutan The SAS System The SIMNLIN Procedure Dynamic Simultaneous Simulation Solution Range Tahun = 2001 To 2011 Descriptive Statistics Actual Predicted Variable N Obs N Mean Std Dev Mean Std Dev DPI 11 11 4.0805 0.6639 4.1915 0.3842 SPI 11 11 3.3034 0.8295 3.4000 0.4976 QPI 11 11 4.9383 0.8409 4.9774 0.7877 HRPI 11 11 3046.9 839.2 3434.7 169.0 HRIMPI 11 11 523.7 71.7830 740.9 70.4818 HRXPI 11 11 370.8 51.9039 370.7 219.2 MPI 11 11 0.7151 0.1250 0.8261 0.0620 XPI 11 11 2.3499 0.3939 2.4034 0.3684 DKI 11 11 5.9933 0.9858 6.0287 1.0118 SKI 11 11 5.3924 0.9683 5.5013 0.5264 QKI 11 11 8.1825 1.3739 8.4305 0.8017 HRKI 11 11 3873.0 1452.7 4660.2 618.9 HRMKI 11 11 1029.8 151.8 934.7 98.4826 HRXKI 11 11 662.5 71.7667 603.2 74.5067 MKI 11 11 0.3336 0.0698 0.3338 0.0654 XKI 11 11 3.1237 0.6971 3.2630 0.3404 Statistics of fit Mean Mean Mean Abs Mean Abs RMS RMS Variable N Error Error Error Error Error Error R-Square DPI 11 0.1110 3.7809 0.3099 7.4957 0.3800 8.8867 0.6395 SPI 11 0.0966 8.9206 0.4524 18.5933 0.6272 33.9171 0.3711 QPI 11 0.0391 1.6155 0.4085 8.9833 0.5331 12.6144 0.5579 HRPI 11 387.7 22.8790 786.4 32.4062 983.6 47.0799 .5112 HRIMPI 11 217.1 43.1575 217.1 43.1575 224.8 46.3520 9.791 HRXPI 11 -0.1424 -1.9409 165.4 44.0515 189.3 50.0982 13.63 MPI 11 0.1110 17.4177 0.1110 17.4177 0.1282 20.9177 .1581 XPI 11 0.0535 3.5862 0.2652 12.0923 0.3162 14.7868 0.2913 DKI 11 0.0355 0.5605 0.2529 4.2319 0.2907 4.9563 0.9043 SKI 11 0.1089 4.0498 0.5180 10.5842 0.6922 15.4228 0.4379 QKI 11 0.2480 4.2088 0.6727 8.5087 0.7143 9.2482 0.7027 HRKI 11 787.2 53.1100 1489.3 66.9420 1880.9 108.8 .8440 HRMKI 11 -95.1197 -8.0803 126.8 11.5734 157.6 13.9748 .1847 HRXKI 11 -59.2934 -8.6705 67.6483 10.1382 80.4344 11.8721 .3818 MKI 11 0.000193 0.8861 0.0296 9.2706 0.0336 11.3436 0.7449 XKI 11 0.1393 7.6446 0.3283 12.7642 0.4099 17.7383 0.6198