Saran Analisis Faktor Penentu Integrasi Pasar Beras di Indonesia

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Dahl DC dan Hammond JW. 1977. Market and Price Analysis. The Agricultural Industries. McGraw-Hill Book Company. St. Paul Minnesota. Enders W. 2004. Applied Econometric Time Series. John WileySons,Inc. Ghafoor A dan Aslam M. 2012. Market Integration and Price Transmission in Rice Markets of Pakistan, SANEI Working Paper Series No. 12-08, South Asia Network of Economic Research Institutes, Dhaka. Goletti F, Raisuddin A dan Farid N. 1995. Structural Determinants of Market Integration: the Case of Rice Markets in Bangladesh. The Developing Economies, Vol 332; pp:185– 202. Goletti F dan Christina-Tsigas E. 1995. Analizing Market Integration. Scott, Gregory J. Editor. Price Product and People, Analizing Agricultural Market in Developing Countries. Lynne Rienner Publisher. London. 60 González-Rivera G dan Helfand SM. 2001. Economic Development and the Determinants of Spatial Integration in Agricultural Markets. Working Paper No. 01-28. Department of Economics University of California, Riverside. Goodwin BK dan Schroeder TC. 1991. Cointegration Tests and Spatial Price Linkages in Regional Cattle Markets. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol 732; pp:452–464. Granger CWJ dan Newbold P. 1974. Spurious Regressions in Econometrics. Journal of Econometrics, Vol 21974; pp:111-120. Ikhsan, M. 2001. Kemiskinan dan Harga Beras. Dalam Suryana dan Mardianto Editor Bunga Rampai Ekonomi Beras. Lembaga Penyelidikan Ekonomi Masyarakat, Fakultas Ekonomi, Universitas Indonesia, Jakarta. IIham N, Siregar H, dan Priyarsono DS. 2011. Effectiveness of Food Price Policies on Food Security. Indonesian Journal of Agriculture, Vol 41; pp:58- 66. Ismet M, Barkley AP dan Llewelyn RV. 1998. Government Intervention and Market Integration in Indonesian Rice Markets. Agricultural Economics, Vol 193; pp:283–295. Istiqomah, Zeller M, dan Taubadel SC. 2005. Volatility and Integration of Rice Markets in Java Indonesia: A Comparative Analysis Before and After Trade Liberalization. Conference on International Agricultural Research for Development. Deutscher Tropentag 2005, Stuttgart-Hohenheim, October 11-13, 2005. Juanda B dan Junaidi. 2012. Ekonometrika Deret Waktu Teori dan Aplikasi. Penerbit Institut Pertanian Bogor Press. Bogor. Sexton R, Kling C dan Carman H. 1991. Market Integration, Efficiency of Arbitrage and Imperfect Competition: Methodology and Application to US Celery. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol 733; pp: 568-580. Syahroni R. 2001. Analisis Saluran Pemasaran dan Keterpaduan Pasar Beras. Skripsi. Fakultas Pertanian. Institut Pertanian Bogor. Tomek WG dan Robinson KL. 1990. Agricultural Product Price, Third Edition. Cornell University Press. Itacha. Varela G, Aldaz-Carroll E dan Iacovone L. 2012. Determinants of Market Integration and Price Transmission in Indonesia. Policy Research Working Paper WPS6098. World Bank. 61 LAMPIRAN 62 L am p ir an 1 . D at a s er ie s v ar ia b e l ha rga pa da t in gka t l e ve l. 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.9 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 NAD 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.9 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 S U M U T 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.0 9.1 9.2 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 R I A U 8.4 8.6 8.8 9.0 9.2 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 S U M B A R 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.9 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 J A M B I 8.56 8.60 8.64 8.68 8.72 8.76 8.80 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 S U M S E L 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.7 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 B E N G K U L U 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.8 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 L A M P U N G 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.9 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 DKI 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.8 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 J A B A R 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.7 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 J A T E N G 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.8 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 DIY 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.8 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 J A T I M 8.60 8.65 8.70 8.75 8.80 8.85 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 K A L B A R 8.50 8.55 8.60 8.65 8.70 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 K A L T I M 8.4 8.6 8.8 9.0 9.2 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 K A L S E L 8.4 8.6 8.8 9.0 9.2 9.4 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 K A L T E N G 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.0 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 S U L U T 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.7 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 S U L T E N G 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.8 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 S U L T R A 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.8 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 S U L S E L 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.8 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 B A L I 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.8 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 NTB 8.45 8.50 8.55 8.60 8.65 8.70 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 NTT 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.0 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 M A L U K U 8.4 8.6 8.8 9.0 9.2 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 P A P U A 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.7 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 I R 6 4 _ 2 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.7 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 I R 6 4 _ 3 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 T H A I 4.8 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.6 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 V I E T 63 L am p ir an 2 . D at a s er ie s v ar ia b e l ha rga pa da t in gka t fi rst dif fe re nc e. -.10 -.05 .00 .05 .10 .15 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 D N A D -.10 -.05 .00 .05 .10 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 D S U M U T -.3 -.2 -.1 .0 .1 .2 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 D R I A U -.4 -.2 .0 .2 .4 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 D S U M B A R -.2 -.1 .0 .1 .2 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 D J A M B I -.15 -.10 -.05 .00 .05 .10 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 D S U M S E L -.10 -.05 .00 .05 .10 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 D B E N G K U L U -.10 -.05 .00 .05 .10 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 D L A M P U N G -.15 -.10 -.05 .00 .05 .10 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 D D K I -.08 -.04 .00 .04 .08 .12 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 D J A B A R -.04 .00 .04 .08 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 D J A T E N G -.08 -.04 .00 .04 .08 .12 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 D D I Y -.04 -.02 .00 .02 .04 .06 .08 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 D J A T I M -.16 -.12 -.08 -.04 .00 .04 .08 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 D K A L B A R -.10 -.05 .00 .05 .10 .15 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 D K A L T I M -.3 -.2 -.1 .0 .1 .2 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 D K A L S E L -.4 -.2 .0 .2 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 D K A L T E N G -.2 -.1 .0 .1 .2 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 D S U L U T -.20 -.15 -.10 -.05 .00 .05 .10 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 D S U L T E N G -.4 -.2 .0 .2 .4 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 D S U L T R A -.15 -.10 -.05 .00 .05 .10 .15 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 D S U L S E L -.08 -.04 .00 .04 .08 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 D B A L I -.3 -.2 -.1 .0 .1 .2 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 D N T B -.12 -.08 -.04 .00 .04 .08 .12 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 D N T T -.4 -.3 -.2 -.1 .0 .1 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 D M A L U K U -.6 -.4 -.2 .0 .2 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 D P A P U A -.08 -.04 .00 .04 .08 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 D I R 6 4 _ 2 -.08 -.04 .00 .04 .08 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 D I R 6 4 _ 3 -.08 -.04 .00 .04 .08 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 D T H A I -.15 -.10 -.05 .00 .05 .10 25 50 75 1 1 2 5 1 5 D V I E T 64 L am p ir an 3 . L ag o p ti m a l pa d a pe n gu ji a n ko in te gr as i J o h a ns e n N Variabe 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 1 NAD 2 Sumut 4 3 Riau 4 1 4 Sumba 4 26 10 5 Jambi 4 28 5 28 6 Sumse 4 40 10 34 28 7 Bengk 42 33 33 28 33 28 8 Lampu 4 28 1 28 28 28 28 9 DKI 4 25 1 30 24 29 38 16 10 Jabar 27 21 1 28 7 35 15 1 36 11 Jateng 27 1 1 1 1 1 38 1 1 15 12 DIY 4 36 1 1 29 28 35 36 36 39 1 13 Jatim 26 1 1 35 33 28 28 35 30 15 30 5 14 Kalbar 7 14 10 1 28 6 17 28 1 13 1 1 34 15 Kaltim 24 21 28 28 1 28 1 28 24 7 32 34 38 21 16 Kalsel 4 1 1 27 28 1 17 28 5 7 6 1 1 6 21 17 Kalten 15 26 12 8 28 1 28 28 36 7 1 1 35 1 17 1 18 Sulut 4 8 10 8 24 8 20 8 36 28 1 40 29 8 1 8 17 19 Sulten 21 21 2 21 17 21 21 21 21 21 1 21 1 21 2 14 21 25 20 Sultra 16 1 2 2 28 1 34 1 1 34 27 36 38 1 1 1 1 1 2 21 Sulsel 17 17 1 4 28 28 3 1 35 28 1 1 28 25 4 4 9 8 21 9 22 Bali 29 30 3 30 28 28 30 39 30 30 29 29 29 38 2 1 28 27 21 1 38 23 NTB 4 1 1 23 28 22 22 31 13 13 1 27 1 21 23 23 23 22 24 1 23 1 24 NTT 20 21 1 28 28 28 13 4 1 28 1 30 30 28 13 1 28 28 21 1 28 35 1 25 Maluk 4 14 1 1 28 34 28 28 29 28 1 35 29 7 28 1 26 8 21 1 25 30 23 28 26 Papua 4 1 1 1 33 34 28 28 29 28 6 38 29 7 1 29 5 8 21 2 5 28 30 28 13 27 IR64_ 40 9 1 1 28 1 39 28 9 7 37 18 43 1 1 1 1 27 21 44 31 43 1 9 1 39 28 IR64_ 18 9 18 9 28 1 35 1 9 9 3 1 19 1 16 1 1 8 21 7 1 1 1 9 1 1 29 Thai 36 2 30 Viet 18 1 65 L am p ir an 4 . T rac e st at is ti k pe n gu ji a n ko in te gr as i J o h ans e n Variab 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 1 NAD 2 Sumu 9.50 3 Riau 14.74 25.76 4 Sumb 7.72 19.10 9.04 5 Jamb 9.55 19.98 13.77 25.03 6 Sums 9.25

46.92 23.42

14.41 13.05 7 Beng

37.84 30.04

10.13 23.66 18.26 31.99 8 Lamp 10.79 20.69 21.61 22.85

27.73 14.11

26.39 9 DKI

13.82 27.01

8.24 34.16

24.64 10.42

20.35 20.58 10 Jabar

45.36 15.02

10.58 20.54 21.37 39.98

27.71 15.12

25.18 11 Jaten 40.52 8.04 10.46 5.87 7.73 6.29 27.14 6.54 11.46 12.26 12 DIY 12.84

38.84 8.42

4.97 39.21

21.58 38.09

70.19 36.26

31.96 28.47

13 Jatim

30.85 8.78

10.07 40.02 10.61 18.02

28.31 28.45

20.48 13.54

21.61 20.87 14 Kalba 6.91 9.16 8.75 9.06 7.36 19.77 24.43 19.52 15.07 11.76 5.69 30.24 27.84 15 Kaltim

35.79 17.63

10.63 10.88 18.55 9.53

21.28 13.85

17.70 11.51

36.17 65.64

71.10 16.29

16 Kalse 17.13 15.31 15.41 9.73

31.05 12.00

30.47 26.27

15.40 23.43 17.90 28.17 17.68 17.63 40.93 17 Kalte

29.88 25.47

34.64 26.87

38.30 9.32

27.22 9.59

42.67 16.84

11.75 27.78

42.16 11.57

32.35 28.35

18 Sulut 11.84 12.77 9.57 6.58

20.73 16.60

18.52 13.08

26.09 31.94

11.39 17.36 22.73 16.38

22.15 26.52

23.39 19 Sulte 25.65

19.76 13.20

15.62 20.70

20.52 23.78

21.06 17.57

17.59 19.76 18.39 25.84

25.32 16.51

23.36 32.27 22.20 20 Sultra 12.73 8.36 12.03 8.53

26.92 13.09

10.11 19.44 11.77 16.63 15.93 34.23

30.56 13.92

15.65 31.62

22.64 16.48

11.99 21 Sulse 23.63 13.67 14.54 9.83 23.06 17.67 20.14 4.43 28.14 17.51 5.80 5.13 36.04

29.09 14.10

8.92 21.39 7.40 16.01 19.41 22 Bali 17.97

61.81 11.14

29.70 29.66

26.51 27.03

39.78 22.17

41.67 18.34

16.71 27.09

36.69 13.29

14.25 27.64

37.67 36.15

12.56 41.70 23 NTB 10.08 10.38 12.62 16.80

18.47 23.95

27.65 41.05

11.33 10.58 17.55 29.63 18.98 14.43 8.91 21.91

34.70 34.43

9.55 12.76 18.76 21.71 24 NTT

34.84 16.42

13.74 18.07

27.71 16.74

24.63 16.73 10.29 29.19 12.33 42.76

43.85 14.04

12.44 11.45

27.11 29.51

24.68 10.96 19.27 43.87 14.07 25 Malu 5.82 9.94 12.13 12.19 11.03 14.77 24.20

29.24 18.47

19.29 5.56

31.56 23.64

10.47 7.26 8.59 30.57 8.25 18.49 12.83 28.46 21.40 14.05 15.74 26 Papu 5.31 16.88 12.01 14.11 16.70 16.97 26.80

18.92 25.63

14.51 18.41

40.29 16.15

7.32 12.21 17.93 13.41 7.84 17.62 9.98 5.42

24.31 26.82

20.21 14.62

27 IR64_

36.53 10.55

11.00 7.32 15.96 5.61

59.88 18.75

9.57 8.39

28.77 18.22

28.14 4.85

30.28 15.77

9.06 23.65 17.58 98.74

29.93 73.08

7.56 14.07 5.23 43.23 28 IR64_

27.33 20.43

17.24 9.45 19.60 5.45

33.92 7.46

11.44 12.32 19.39 8.64 16.99 4.27

31.20 17.87

9.91 10.87

27.26 14.96

4.17 12.77 7.21 18.61 4.32 3.76 29 Thai

21.26 13.73

30 Viet

35.79 6.12

Ket era ngan : - Nil ai ya ng d ice tak teba l bold s ign ifi kan pada tara f ny ata 5. - A ngka pa da kolo m m enun jukk an provins i ya ng s am a s esu ai pada bari s. 66 L am p ir an 5 . M ax im um e ige nv al ue pe n gu ji a n ko in te gr as i Jo ha ns e n Variab 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 1 NAD 2 Sumu 8.75 3 Riau 11.53 19.64 4 Sumb 5.93 14.75 7.68 5 Jamb 5.50 16.66 13.57 20.88 6 Sums 5.30 42.46 16.40 8.99 7.30 7 Beng 32.96

25.44 8.60

18.65 16.87 28.27 8 Lamp 10.09 17.60 17.52 19.97

23.60 11.68

24.07 9 DKI

12.95 21.25

8.10 31.80

19.02 6.30

16.10 13.51 1 Jabar

37.88 11.79

7.04 16.72 14.00 37.78

19.72 12.35

15.67 1 Jaten 29.95 6.40 9.15 4.60 6.34 4.62 18.28 4.75 9.84 9.05 12 DIY 9.48

31.22 6.99

3.84 34.58

19.35 33.31

62.75 32.81

29.22 21.62

1 Jatim

28.55 7.18

8.69 31.68 10.61 12.96 18.58 27.80

20.48 9.55

15.72 14.85 14 Kalb 4.31 6.02 8.67 6.71 7.28 16.57 18.49 18.31 12.12 8.26 3.66 21.19 22.72 1 Kalti

25.67 13.67

7.89 8.39 12.33 9.16

19.14 8.38

17.35 8.33

30.80 56.51

40.44 11.93

1 Kalse 12.55 10.43 9.84 8.46

26.49 7.07

20.98 14.25

11.32 17.71 15.61 20.18 14.56 15.13 29.53 1 Kalte

19.77 16.92

22.79 21.00

29.05 7.82

20.27 9.48

30.80 14.15

9.76 19.01

33.07 8.87

17.73 21.82

1 Sulut 8.21 7.83 5.14 4.91

17.67 10.11

13.80 8.44

25.70 24.58

9.94 17.28 16.64 13.32 13.93 19.17 17.70 1 Sulte 13.18 16.17 9.57 14.73 19.75

19.54 14.53

17.48 14.76

12.87 17.53 13.75 23.38

23.38 11.08

14.32 18.55 20.21 2 Sultr 12.44 5.15 9.38 6.29

22.08 8.27

6.69 13.30 6.98 13.47 11.68 21.98

26.14 10.68

12.01 23.24

21.86 10.77

9.88 2 Sulse 19.84 9.10 14.52 8.50 20.41 15.40 17.21 3.43 28.13 14.87 4.00 3.36 32.07

25.72 12.81

8.76 15.90 5.48 14.84 15.18 22 Bali 15.48

50.39 8.74

17.18 20.43

20.92 20.59

39.45 16.04

41.25 17.70

13.45 19.73

31.47 11.17

11.45 19.28

36.16 33.00

8.90 40.46 2 NTB 5.17 6.64 7.85 14.94 16.30 13.88 14.96 29.76 11.20 9.98 13.35 21.95 15.13 11.38 8.49 13.96

26.83 25.40

6.64 7.31

17.30 19.08

24 NTT

32.60 12.54

7.35 16.34 17.40 14.83 18.09 13.90 9.96 23.52 10.50 26.20

29.16 13.15

9.36 8.72 17.65 24.41

19.88 7.82

14.44 28.24 9.09 2 Malu 4.23 5.58 10.71

12.01 10.08

11.69 20.30

25.66 18.45

15.86 4.05

27.44 16.95

5.64 5.78 8.53 25.65 6.77 17.51 11.34 24.80 14.19 11.86 13.36 2 Papu 4.12 13.82 11.05 12.92 16.51 16.42 21.60

17.37 25.29

13.56 14.68

27.22 12.93

6.10 11.27 12.85 10.90 6.71 17.62 8.26 4.47 16.71 25.70

20.07 13.05

2 IR64

29.51 6.94

9.58 6.10 13.05 4.44

38.71 13.04

5.57 6.05

25.89 13.52

27.61 3.62

22.51 12.29

8.05 19.77

16.18 94.15

28.52 58.50

5.62 11.28 4.12 25.10 2 IR64

23.03 13.70

12.54 7.26 15.10 4.55

33.54 6.02

6.19 7.10 14.64 8.43 13.57 3.15

22.24 13.22

8.52 7.38

21.14 14.71

3.18 12.14 5.55 14.78 3.50 2.85 2 Thai

18.44 13.31

3 Viet

29.26 4.11

Ket era ngan : - Nil ai ya ng d ice tak teba l bold s ign ifi kan pada tara f ny ata 5. - A ngka pa da kolo m m enun jukk an provins i ya ng s am a s esu ai pada bari s.