77 ISSN 2086-5953
MANAGEMENT DECISION MAKING FOR EXTENDED CROW METHOD TO PREDICT RELIABILITY OF SHIP OIL SYSTEM
Syamsuri
1
, Tungga Bhimadi
2 1
Department of Mechanical Engineering National Taiwan University of Science and Technology
2
Department of Naval Engineering Sepuluh Nopember Institute of Technology
Email: syam_sby2003yahoo.com
1
, tunggabhimadiyahoo.com
2
ABSTRACT
Method and
procedure selection
to recalculate the component and sub system
reliability growth after their failures have challenged researchers for satisfaction collaborating
and regulation of operating system. Reliability level was proposed compliance with: temporary using,
paralel circuit as stand by, impulsive system, real caused by routine maintenance, and Management
Decision Making MDM in repairing sub system or replacement component. This paper was
reliability growth approach using Reliability Growth of Extended Crow RGEC method.
Management decision that proposed are: scheduling in harmony, using non standard
component, handling after hazard, and using component or system resulted from innovation.
Time to Failure TTF data are needed to predict reliability growth of ship oil system until its
damage. The mean value of reliability was 64.3, and reliability level was 0.15 for 25 years operation
until the end of life time system.
Keywords: Reliability Growth of Extended Crow, Management Decision Making, Time to Failure.
1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 Motivation
Reliability reduction follows of using system. The phenomenon of the effect reliability
reduction in using system could be more slowdown by MDM. MDM consists of therminologies:
scheduling in harmony by Pertamina [7], using non standard component by Bieman [1] and Pertamina
[7], handling after hazard from by Rasmussen [8], and using component or system resulted from
technology
and procedure innovation by Kibrio [5]. Detailed investigation of MDM using the
application formula of extended Crow Model during the reliability could be implemented to
maintain reliability level of machinery system, electronics system, handling equipment system, and
various otomotive applications.
One of
the interesting
problems is
performing reasonable reliability system based on agreement which was used as satisfied requirement.
The two example of reliability system based on agreement are mean procentage of reliability every
time and final reliability on the last of life time system. Indonesian authority requires minimum
mean reliability 66 and the final reliability 45.
Reliability is a probability to reach success
condition of an item at the certain time. The example of the item are the component, the
subsystem, and the system. The measurement of success or failure of the item is notified by null=0
for not reliable condition or perfect failure, and one =1 for perfect reliable condition or perfect
successful. Reliability terminology was introduced for the first time and reliability engineering for
Fatigue Failure in solids was presented by Weibull [9]. Weibull was inform the reliability evaluation in
Mean Time Between Failure MTBF as a linear function of component system from Time to Failure
TTF. Weibull changed MTBF function to the exponential
reliability function
with two
parameters, scale parameter as ‗ ‘ and shape
parameter as ‗ ‘. Finally, the three failures are
defined in reliability growth evaluation, Bd-type of Nelson [6], A-type of Seber-Wlid and Bc-type of
Crow [3]. 3-failures are described: component or subsystem failed so that replacement of their
reserve with system shut down as A-type, Component failed and replacement with system stll
operate as Bc-type, repair and replacement component or subsystem following scheduling time
as Bd-type. All these types have a spesific of partial profment by experiment, Crow [2].
As far as we know that using reliability prediction of ship machinary system with 3-types
failure approach following and MDM with RGEC
ISSN 2086-5953 method has not been prepared yet.
1.2 Problem Description
