Proceeding of 2013 International Seminar on Climate Change and Food Security ISCCFS 2013
Palembang, South Sumatra -Indonesia, 24-25 October,2013
3
Economic Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production
Negin Vaghefi
1
1
Faculty of Agriculture Mazandaran University Iran
1. Introduction
There are serious concerns about the impact of climate change and its variability on agricultural production throughout the world. First, food security issues are considered significant in the list of human
activities, and ecosystem services are under threat of dangerous anthropogenic interference on earth‘s climate. Second, each country is naturally concerned with potential damages and benefits that may arise over
the coming decades from climate change impact on its area as well as globally, since these will affect domestic and international policies, trading patterns, resource use, regional planning and eventually the
people‘s welfare. Since global demand for food increasing steadily, particularly in Asian markets, any permanent reductions in output of key agricultural commodities resulting from climate change is likely to
drive average food prices higher as consumers compete for limited supplies. Thus, attention to climate change issue is urgent, as it poses a significant threat to food supplies and security.
2. Effect of Climate Change on Potential Production of Rice
After wheat, rice is the most important crop in the world, and the dominant staple food crop in Asia with more than 90 of the rice produced and consumed. However, due to rapidly expanding population,
increasing in rice production is required. The impact of climate change on rice production may add to an already complex problem. The major climatic variables that effect the rice production are temperature,
rainfall, solar radiation, and atmospheric CO
2
. Hence, any changes in these variables may have a significant impact on rice productivity. Since rice is a highly water demanded plant, unpredicted climatic changes like
extreme weather are expected to influence its water use required. Previous studies have shown that increased air temperature adversely affect rice yield and its grain
quality. High temperature increases the transpiration rate, reduces the photosynthesis, and shortens the growth duration of rice plant. However, more solar radiation has beneficial effect on rice grain yield. It
controls photosynthesis and biological process of plant. Furthermore, increased atmospheric Carbon Dioxide CO
2
concentration increases growth and development of rice plant and consequently rice yield. However, the rice yield is more strongly influenced by temperature than by CO
2
. The elevated CO
2
may positively increase the number of panicles; however filled grain per panicle may sharply decline with increasing
temperature. Among these factors, temperature therefore has a major influence on rice growth and yield.
3. Economic Impact of Climate Change
There is a general agreement that potential changes in climate may reduce productivity and output in agricultural industries. Since climate continuously changes and affects the agriculture in various ways, good
measurement of its impacts on sustainable agriculture is required. Since global demand for food is steadily increasing, especially in Asian markets, any long term reductions
in production of key agricultural commodities, arising from climate change, is probable to drive average food prices higher as consumers compete for limited supplies. In fact, crops that decline in supply will rise in
price. Higher prices reduce consumption level and adversely affect on consumer welfare. It may increase the fears over food security and more hunger people due to rising population.
The government as the policy maker has to play most influential role to support farmers and farm level production by defining the appropriate subsidies and incentives programs. Thus, rice policies and
investments need to be more strategic.
Proceeding of 2013 International Seminar on Climate Change and Food Security ISCCFS 2013
Palembang, South Sumatra -Indonesia, 24-25 October,2013
4
Innovation to address the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Indonesia: Research Needs
+
Perdinan
1,2
and Rizaldi Boer
1,2
1
CCROM-SEAP, Bogor Agricultural University, Bogor, Indonesia
2
Perhimpunan Agrometeorology Indonesia PERHIMPI
email: perdinangmail.com, rizadiboergmail.com
1. Introduction
