Proceeding of 2013 International Seminar on Climate Change and Food Security ISCCFS 2013
Palembang, South Sumatra -Indonesia, 24-25 October,2013
41
Impact of Climate Change on World Soybean Glycine Max. Production: a Nutrition and Food Security Perspective in Indonesia
Lazarus Dawa
1,2+
1
Department of Health Papua New Guinea
2
Graduate School of University of Sriwijaya, Palembang, Indonesia
Abstract.
Indonesian imports of soybean represents a share of 2 percent of the total soybean traded in the world. Due to deficit in domestic soybean production , over 80 percent of it must be imported to meet the
high demand of soybean based food and oil. Changing climatic conditions of increasing atmospheric temperature, accumulating level of carbondioxide, and varying rainfalls will alter soybean yields in the major
producing regions. According to projection, USA, Brazil and Argentina will still lead in production of soybean up to 2020. Various study have demonstrated yield decrease up to 40 percent in the major
producing areas under different climate change scenarios. Since Indonesia imports over half of the total soybean needed to meet its yearly consumption, it is very vulnerable to world price volatility and poses threat
to food security. Lack of recognizing future threats and responding through effective interventions can lead to food insecurity and increase in malnutrition problems in the country.
Keywords:
Soybean, climate change, nutrition, food security.
1. Background
Soybean is one of the food commodities that has profound significance to the livelyhood of Indonesian people. It provides an affordable and rich source of plant protein that is accessible to the majority of the
population. Over half of the household in Indonesia consumed tempeh and tofu which are produced from soybean [1]. The imports of soybean to indonesia was about 1.2 million metric tonne in 2011 [2]. It was
reported that in 2012 and 2013, soybean import will be over 80 percent to meet the domestic demand [3]. In addition to consumption, producers of major foods from soybean especially tempeh and tofu benefit through
marketing of the food. Soybean therefore is important in maintaining welfare and food security in Indonesia. The changing world climatic conditions, will affect soybean production that may result in adverse effect to
consumers and other users of soybeans. Loss of productivity due to extreme climatic conditions will cause soybean supply to decline, a limited supply and high demand will force price to escalate. High price will
reduce soybean accessibility for processors and limit consumption by end users. The aim of this paper are to review impact of climate change on yield of soybean in the largest exporting soybean nation and provide a
discussion on the possible implications it will have on food and nutrition security in Indonesia.
2. Literature Review
2.1 World production and consumption of soybean
Soybean is traded in world for its oil, as food, soymeal for supplement in animal feeds and biofuel production. The major producing countries of soybean in the world are USA, Brazil and Argentina that
supplied almost 90 percent of the total soybean in the world market [4,5]. Production trends for the 3 countries are displayed in Figure 1, showing soybean yields over the years up to 2012.
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Corresponding author. Tel.: -
E-mail address
: lazarus.dawagmail.com
Proceeding of 2013 International Seminar on Climate Change and Food Security ISCCFS 2013
Palembang, South Sumatra -Indonesia, 24-25 October,2013
42 Fig. 1: Soybean production trends in 3 major producing countries.
Source:
Faostat, 2013. The 2011 yield of soybean in USA was 8 percent less than in 2010 due lower planting and yield loss by
weather changes . Competition of land by other crops such as maize also account for the decrease in harvest yield [6]. Indonesian imports of soybean is amongst the top 10 in the world, and occupies about 2 percent of
the total soybean import [2]. China still remains the largest importer of soybeans on world market. It was forcasted that from 2010-2020 U.S soybean production will remain near flat due to limited hectares available
for cultivation, while Brazil and Argentina are expected to increase soybean exports to satisfy world demand [4].
2.2 Soybean supply and utilization in Indonesia
The soybean supply in Indonesia is derived from both domesic production and imports. Over half of the total soybean demand in indonesia is met from imports. In 20112012 the country‘s domestic production
was less by 30,000 MT compared to the 20102011 production at 650 000 MT. The import of soybean in period of 20112012 was 1.922MMT which marked an increase of 1.26 percent than the previous period.
Amost 88 percent of soybean supply in indonesia are used for making tempeh and tofu [7]. The major imports of soybean in indonesia is from USA about 90 percent while remainding fraction come from
Argentina, Malaysia and other producing countries [8].The estimated per capita consumption annually for tempeh and tofu is 8.5 and 7.8 kgcapyear respectively [1]. The soybean consumption increased from 8.13
in 1998 to 8.94kgcapyear in 2004 while local production of soybean had been declining since 2009 from 97,000 tonnes to 85,000 tonnes in 2012 [5].
2.3 Climate change effect on soybean production
