Proceeding of 2013 International Seminar on Climate Change and Food Security ISCCFS 2013
Palembang, South Sumatra -Indonesia, 24-25 October,2013
4
Innovation to address the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Indonesia: Research Needs
+
Perdinan
1,2
and Rizaldi Boer
1,2
1
CCROM-SEAP, Bogor Agricultural University, Bogor, Indonesia
2
Perhimpunan Agrometeorology Indonesia PERHIMPI
email: perdinangmail.com, rizadiboergmail.com
1. Introduction
Agricultural industry has been identified as one of vulnerable sectors to the impacts of climate change. The impacts raise awareness many countries around the world specifically to address the potential adverse
impacts of climate change that may threaten food security Schmidhuber and Tubiello 2007. A global study conducted by Cline 2007 estimated that the economic loss due to global warming worse scenarios on
agriculture sector in 2080 would be equivalent to about 6.33 billion USD without CO
2
fertilization and 1.967 billion USD with CO
2
fertilization. Interestingly, the potential impacts are distributed unevenly across the globe with potential adverse impacts felt by developing countries located near the equator. Inline
with the Cline‘s report, study on the impacts of climate change on ASEAN countries reported that in a few last decades, ASEAN countries have been exposed to increasing trends of extreme climate hazards which has
been considered due to global warming and climate change ADB 2009.
Indonesia as one of ASEAN countries located near equator is considered vulnerable to climate change. This is expected as agricultural production is highly influenced by climate variability. In the context of
climate variability, climate extreme events in Indonesia are frequently associated with the ENSO
El Nino and Southern Oscillation
events. For example, the El Nino events are often associated with drought condition that eventually may decrease crop production in many parts of Indonesian regions such as Jawa
Barat, Lampung dan Sumatra Selatan dan Sulawesi Selatan Boer et al. 2009. As the frequency of ENSO events are expected to increase in the future due to global warming Timmermann et al. 1999, it is
anticipated that the frequency of climate extreme events may also increase in the future. In short, global climate change may decrease crop production in Indonesia due to increasing frequency of climate extremes.
This climate exposure may exacerbate the decrease in crop production due to exposure from agricultural land conversion. A study conducted by Boer et al. 2009 suggested that paddy production in Java was estimated
to decrease by 5 million tonnage in 2025 and 10 million tonnage in 2050 due to agricultural land conversion with an assumption of 30 thousand hectare per year and global climate change. Other works that evaluated
the impacts of climate change in Indonesia can be seen in the country report published by Ministry of Environment that summarize current states of the climate change impacts and vulnerability in Indonesia
MoE 2007.
The vulnerability of agricultural Industry in Indonesia may happen because of many drawbacks in various aspects, namely: Research, Policies and Integrated Programs on Climate Change Adaptation
Climate Change Mitigation, Infrastructure Spatial Plan, Poverty, Institutions, Climate Information Services, and Technologies Boer et al. 2011. As a consequence, adaptation programs to alleviate the
potential negative impacts of climate change should be planned and implemented. Early Action is important as late action to address the potential adverse impacts of climate change will lead to more severe impact and
the adaptation will be very costly and may be impossible to be handled ADB 2009. Understanding, the implementation of climate change adaptation will incur costs so that plausible adaptation should be selected.
Perdinan and Winkler 2013 proposed a guidance to conduct adaptation assessment. The assessment integrates
the ―top-down‖ and the ―bottom-up‖ approach that combines the application of modeling approaches and local knowledge i.e., stakeholders‘ experience.
+
A keynote paper presented at International Seminar on Climate Change and Food Security ISCCFS 2013 Palembang, South Sumatra-Indonesia 24-25 October 2013
Proceeding of 2013 International Seminar on Climate Change and Food Security ISCCFS 2013
Palembang, South Sumatra -Indonesia, 24-25 October,2013
5 This paper attempts to identify potential innovations to address the impacts of climate change on
agriculture that also can be potential adaptation options. The innovations are proposed based on our understanding on current states of knowledge on the climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation.
We specifically emphasize research needs so that an innovation can be discovered and implemented in Indonesia. Generally, the subjects of innovation for climate change adaptation are in the field of climate
information, information technology, and agricultural technology Figure 1.
Fig. 1: Subjects of innovation needed for climate change adaptation
2. Proposed Innovations: Research Needs
